Monday November 27 2023 Forecast (7:35AM)

47 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 27 – DECEMBER 1)

This week will feature some wind and variability in temperature, but not too much in the way of precipitation beyond the slug of heavier rain that fell last night. That was from a rapidly-moving, quickly-intensifying low pressure area that cut across southeastern New England then raced away via the Gulf of Maine. This low become part of a broad low pressure circulation that, in combination with high pressure over the southeastern US, will bring us breezy weather and a chill-down into midweek. Today actually starts out mild but high temps will be realized before noon, and then a fall-off will take place. Colder air is transported into our region tonight through Wednesday on a gusty northwesterly breeze. As that high far to the south slides its way east northeastward, it will help turn our wind around to a more southwesterly direction by Thursday, and we’ll see temperature respond accordingly with moderation for the final day of the month. As we begin December on Friday, clouds will advance in ahead of a wave of low pressure which is expected to bring us milder air and some rain for late Friday.

TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 47-54 occurring by late morning, then cooling through the 40s during the afternoon. Wind W 10-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 24-31. Wind NW 10-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 20-27. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 23-30. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 27-34. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Rain arriving during the afternoon. Highs 43-50. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 2-6)

Dry with a cooling trend over the weekend of December 2-3. Wave of low pressure brings rain chance a December 4. Dry weather returns December 5-6. Temperatures cool slightly early period, moderate mid period, cool down late period, but averaging near to slightly above normal overall.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 7-11)

Split flow pattern. Southern jet stream keeps most moisture south of our area. Northern jet stream brings a couple quick-moving disturbances with precipitation threats but no major storms. Temperatures variable, averaging near to slightly above normal. There is expected to be negative NAO induced blocking in the pattern, but I do think this blocking will be stronger than forecast, hence a further south impact for storminess.

47 thoughts on “Monday November 27 2023 Forecast (7:35AM)”

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.
    NOTHING to get excited about on the horizon.

    more ho-hum weather and that is exactly how I dee it.

    Looks like mountain locations up North got a decent dump of snow last night.

    1. Not a whole lot in terms of snow loving folks. All indications have been that we get off to a quiet start. That’s the reality of the meteorology of the situation, contrary to the wishcasting of weenie-land “fake-mets”. There is a page in particular who has been “quietly” bashing the professionals, especially NOAA / NWS and guaranteeing that we were about to get wild with a cold & snowy pattern. Wrong. These folks get burned on a regular basis yet just keep doing the same thing. I don’t get it. What I don’t get even more is the blind followers that continue to proclaim them as “better than the professionals”. Nope. Sorry. That’s even more incorrect than the wish-casts they drool over. 😉

      Oh well, let them do what they must I guess! 🙂

      I and my fellow mets will just keep doing what we do, the best we can. 🙂

      1. And you and your fellow mets do a great job.

        BUT, see what you can do to wrestle up some exciting weather. 🙂

        1. I’ll see what I can do. But so far, I have not found Mother Nature to be much of a request taker, unless you dare her to screw something up that you have planned. 😉

          1. Yes, indeed. I understand and thanks for trying. 🙂

            I think someone around here used to say:

            IT IS WHAT IT IS

            So, not much we can do about it.

  3. This morning I was taking some phone camera pics of the setting full moon when a bird about 1/4 mile away flew directly in front of it just as I was clicking and I caught what appears as a black dot with wings dead center in front of the moon. What are the odds of that?

    My aim (and it’s been done by many) is to capture with my real camera on a tripod a plane crossing in front of a full moon. Of course, getting my real camera operational would probably improve my chances of that. 😉

    1. I have to chuckle. There are some people defending the really bad non-forecaster “forecaster” posting pics of places like this on their social media pages, where it’s perfectly normal and expected that it would look like that right after a quick storm of heavy snow in the mountains, and they are using it to verify the promises of a harsh start to winter. Nice try, but nope. 🙂

      That is a very lovely scene though. 🙂 Skiers will be pleased!

      1. ha ha ha

        It does look nice. I looked at the web cams at midnight
        last night and it was SNOWING pretty good up there.
        Of course, I don’t know what happened in the wee hours.
        I hope it stayed all snow, and even if it changed over for a time, they netted out a nice little dump of snow and that is a certainty. 🙂

  7. After the GFS slightly stabilized the last few days (slightly being the key word), I have noticed a trend back to inconsistency and non-trustworthy runs. Very little mind will be given to this model by this forecaster, other than monitoring for any changes in behavior, for some time to come.

    We should probably end up with some weather weenie porn on these runs again soon. It simply can’t resist going there for whatever odd programming reason there is. Oh Mr. Santa, all I want for Christmas is an actual fixed GFS. Can you help me there? 😛

    1. I wish I could. Perhaps if I put on my Santa Suit, I can get it
      fixed for all of us. But I don’t believe in magic, do you?

      🙂 🙂

  8. Thanks, TK

    0.61″ in the bucket with some heavy overnight rains.

    The gusts snapped my light metal flag pole last night With high wind warnings, blizzard warnings, etc.,I take down the flags and remove the poles. Didn’t think the winds would be that strong.

    1. Yes indeed, I worked for Rob this morning to give him a long weekend. My long weekend is next weekend when I’ll be down in NYC for the final Kiss show ever.

  10. To TK,

    Read your winter forecast twice. Very comprehensive for sure and for me, educational too. Beginning to think my 44″ Boston projection could be too high.

    You asked if you left anything out. Probably not. Wondered though about the AMO but not sure of its relevance.

    Well there might be one thing you left out … the Butterfly Effect. 🙂

    Thank you for the forecast!!

    1. Flutter by, butterfly!

      All it takes is one renegade snowstorm, and an otherwise “meh” winter can have quite a bit of snow in a relative sense.

    2. With last night’s snow, Jay Peak up to 26″ new in the last 7 days and 43″ on the year. Not even to December yet.

  13. Thanks, TK.

    There’s been a ton of snow across portions of Eastern Europe, particularly in Moldova, Romania, Bulgaria and Ukraine.

  15. Developments for the early days of December…

    We were expecting a -NAO and we are going to have that. But as I have said many times in the past (and often repeat on social media due to poor assumptions), a -NAO is not an automatic snowy and/or cold pattern for the Northeast.

    Troughs are going to be developing in Alaska and the western US, and a weaker ridge in the eastern US. That’s a milder pattern with quick colder shots evolving during the first week of December and probably persisting into mid month as well.

    1. I also read and got a chuckle on X where December was going to be a torch like 2015. It doesn’t sound like this December will be like 2015.

    1. Wow JJ. Hopedale is very close to where I am. Sutton had to have taken a bad hit too. Thank you as always for these

  18. Update:
    Started the long trip home Saturday. Cooling in Missouri City at mid 50’s rising to lower 60’s on the trek eastward out of Texas.
    Stopped at everyone’s favorite place…..Buc-ees!
    Let my wife off at the entrance to get a couple of snacks, while I filled the car. 244.9 was
    the lowest price of the trip.
    Delighted with my good fortune, I proceeded inside to find my wife and pay for the snacks with my new found money.
    A lesson to all men…..don’t ever send your wife into Buc-ees just to get a couple of things. She spent over $100 on stuff I never thought we needed until she saw them on the shelves. ARRGGH!
    The reminder of that day found us traveling in and out of rain showers. Arrived in Slidell, La early evening. Light showers , temperature about 66.
    Left Slidell Sunday morning with mid 60’s temperature light rain and very humid.
    Passed through Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia ending in Chattanooga, Tennessee.
    Cold front had passed through and temperature was down to 51.
    Woke up this morning to a windy 33 degrees.
    Lookout Mountain was right behind the hotel.
    It’s 1,850 ft above sea level…not very high, but it’s claimed that you can see 7 states from the peak.
    We took their word for it as we were anxious to get going on today’s 6 hr drive.
    Today’s ride took us through Tennessee up through West Virginia to the outskirts of Roanoke, VA. Traveled through the Appalachians which included the Smokies, and the Blue Ridge.
    What beauty! Temperatures ranged from 38 to 42 depending on altitude and cloud cover.
    Clouds decreased as the day went on.
    I’m thinking that we were parallel to the trailing cold front of your storm and then it passed beyond us. Saw just 1 snow patch on top of the Smokies.
    Have to go out for 1 more dog walk later tonight.
    Not looking forward to it….brrrr!

    Tomorrow, heading back up to the Gettysburg/Pennsylvania Dutch country to re look at what we saw at the beginning of the trip.
    Then home Wednesday. Can’t wait to experience higher gas prices….yuch!

    Please keep the weather dry for us.

    And thanks for sharing our journey with us.

    1. Such a special journey. Thank you for Sharing with us. Your remaining trip is similar to our ride home from Mac’s parents. Wonderful memories for us and you are making special memories for you. It doesn’t get better

  19. I was right on the button about the GFS.

    Completely different idea on the 00z op run. It doesn’t know what energy to focus on. The result: Another over-forecast low with too much cold air and fictional snowstorm early next week. That won’t be how it unfolds.

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