Tuesday November 28 2023 Forecast (8:25AM)

61 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 28 – DECEMBER 2)

Broad high pressure well to our south will slide eastward over the next few days. This, combined with low pressure to our north, will result in a broad westerly flow through Thursday. Today there will be a northwesterly component to the flow and it will be the windiest, and coldest day of the next 3, along with the possibility that a few Great Lakes snow showers survive as light snow and/or rain showers into our region. The flow backs slightly to the west Wednesday, still a chilly but slightly less windy day, and a little more to the west southwest Thursday, which will be breezy and a little milder. On Friday, a quick-moving elongated disturbance will move in from the west southwest with wet weather likely in the afternoon and evening. This system will exit for a return to dry and slightly cooler weather for Saturday with the wind flow shifting back to west northwest again, tapping a little bit into the Canadian chill.

TODAY: Intervals of clouds and sun. A passing snow or rain shower possible. Highs 35-42. Wind WNW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 20-27. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 37-44. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 23-30. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 27-34. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Rain arriving during the afternoon. Highs 43-50. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with rain likely evening. Clearing overnight. Watch for patchy black ice pre-dawn. Lows 25-32. Wind shifting to WNW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind WNW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 3-7)

Unsettled weather is most likely early in the period with the best rain chance associated with milder air and passing low pressure December 4. Blocking pattern should be slightly stronger than shown on guidance and keep most additional storminess to the south of our area into the middle of next week while we are seasonably chilly with a few snow/rain showers around at times.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 8-12)

Trending away from blocking and more west to east flow, but split jet stream with weaker systems. A couple of opportunities for precipitation exist but not looking for major storminess that lingers. Overall temperatures near to above normal / precipitation near normal.

61 thoughts on “Tuesday November 28 2023 Forecast (8:25AM)”

  1. CFS trends for what they are worth (though I have noted some consistency in the projections)…

    December: Dry. Variable temps 1st third, mild middle third, cold final third.

    January: Milder, wetter.

    February: Colder, dry.

    Spring: Cold anomaly start, warm anomaly end. Not too wet.

    Summer: Hotter than last summer, drier than last summer.

    Just a little fun glance ahead based on one long range model. 🙂

    1. Thank you for this. Not a very optimistic outlook for snow lovers.
      “Perhaps” January, if it is not too mild.

      1. In my winter outlook I went for the most snow, relative to normal, in January, because even though I thought February would be colder it would also be quite dry due to stronger blocking.

        Of course, this is educated guesswork. Still going to be fun to watch play out from a meteorological perspective. 🙂

        1. Thank you. Indeed, we shall see how it plays out.
          I am just not feeling too optimistic for snow this Winter.
          Believe me I HOPE I am DEAD wrong!!!

          The Euro has an interesting MESS shaping up for about
          12/4

          https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&rh=2023112800&fh=150

          https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&rh=2023112800&fh=156

          Of course, that is still a long way off and anything can happen. I’ll be watching this on the 12Z run to see it it even remotely remains. 🙂

    2. Guidance is going to have issues (again) with handling multiple disturbances.

      Even the ECMWF is a bit confused at the moment. That model will likely iron it out before the GFS does.

      Mild storm December 4.

      Next stuff should be focused further south, probably well south / southeast.

      1. Of course. Storms pass West and North of us for rain
        and south of us for Nothing! While we are caught in between.
        FIGURES!

        I’ve seen this movie before and I didn’t like it then and I don’t like it now. 🙂

      2. Specifically thanks for your idea on the Euro getting a handle on it earlier on.

        Will keep that in mind in the coming days.

    1. Nice !

      It can be a different world up there.

      Noticed on the North Conway webcam this morning, a snow shower had made it all the way into the “lower” elevation of town.

      1. I’d forgotten I have that camera. The area has changed tremendously since the years I spent winters there but the village is just as charming as ever. Minus Carroll Reed’s ski shop sadly

        Thanks, Tom, for the memory

  9. A good start to winter across the British Isles and Northwestern Europe generally, as the Scandinavian high I described the other day looks to take shape, along with low pressure areas to the west of the high which are then forced southeastward. The end-result is finally a spell of fair and relatively cold weather (with much more sun than they’ve been getting) for Southern England, but also Belgium and parts of the Netherlands. Points north will get some snow showers, too. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xxj6dWvU5fw

    Sometimes these patterns persist for long periods of time. I’ve seen the Scandinavian high persist for as long as 3 to even 5 weeks. It’s something that rarely happens here, as the Canadian highs tend not to be stationary.

    I’m happy for winter lovers over there as it looks like they could get a very decent first month of winter.

      2. Interesting, thank you.

        Look at this

        OTD Weather’n More w & T-Rex & TK

        Mentioned TK? That must mean Tim Kelly, but it is still TK

  12. Well, today’s a beauty in my book. Did an extra long jog along the Charles. Could easily run 13 miles in this weather. But simply can’t do it at all in summer.

    I wouldn’t mind a winter filled with just days like today. While I like snow, I don’t need it for winter. I do need sunny and coldish days like today, or simply cold days (say, in the teens and 20s during the day).

  14. As JpDave posted above, the 12z GFS hits the Dec 5th and 6th again, BUT ……

    there are multiple pieces of energy nearby as early as Dec 2nd and 3rd.

    Long way to go reconciling this, if it ends up being anything.

  15. Thanks, TK!

    (Tom, I think you’ll appreciate and understand the following story:)

    Third period, around 9:15, after I had just settled my class down and started my lesson, I saw my first six snowflakes of the season and exclaimed, “Esta nevando!” (“It’s snowing!”) Of course, my kiddos all turned and looked out the windows and I totally lost their attention from me and my lesson!

    Que idiota soy yo!

    1. Thats great !!

      I am laughing because I know it took way more than 6 minutes to get them all focused.

      Well. it does in 6th grade anyway 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

    2. It sure is snowing like crazy !

      That’s great !!

      Probably in and out of heavy snow then sun then heavy snow and so on.

  22. Brrrr. Cold and windy late pm. It was 34 with a steady wind from 9-13 gusts to high teens and into twenties when I left granddaughter for her riding lesson

  24. Who would’ve thought that my first snowflakes sightings would be in Salem, VA. It’s a suburb of Roanoke. Was mid 30’s, windy, and cold feeling.
    Snow was coming off the surrounding hills.

    Drove north through Virginia, West Virginia, Maryland, then Pennsylvania. As we arrived in Pennsylvania, the magnificence of weather appeared in all It’s glory. Thick white verga was falling over the Blue Ridge mountains (I think it was still them…Appalachians confuse me with the changing range names.) Between the whiteness was sun rays brightening the landscape.
    Reminded me why weather is so fascinating.
    More Blue skies dominated as we moved more north to the Lancaster area.
    Wanted to revisit Gettysburg but it was too cold.
    Picked up some quillos for gifts in Intercourse (hey, I don’t name them, I just visit them lol).

    Paid 3.56/gallon in Pennsylvania. What a shock after the mid 240s further southwest.

    Final leg of the journey is tomorrow.
    Thanks to TK for keeping us relatively storm free.

    1. I’m smiling as I read your post. You have a fun knack for writing. What a memorable trip. Thanks for making us part of your adventures. And I alway got the ranges mixed up down that way. Safe travels tomorrow. Stay warm.

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