Wednesday November 29 2023 Forecast (8:11AM)

44 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 29 – DECEMBER 3)

Dry weather and a moderating temperature trend is ours for this midweek period as high pressure sprawled to our south moves eastward and gradually turns our wind from west to southwest. An easing of the gradient between this high and low pressure to our north will allow winds to back off a bit, although it will still be breezy. A benign unsettled period is expected later Friday as a flat wave of low pressure moves quickly east northeast across our area. This will produce a brief bout of light rainfall with milder air in place. This is the start, however, of a longer period of more unsettled or at least cloudier weather that will take us into the weekend. Additional low pressure waves are likely to run out south of our area during the weekend, and guidance usually struggles to figure out how these will evolve. But basically the idea is clouds will rule, some sun can’t be ruled out, nor can a little light rainfall (still expecting it to be too mild for any mix/snow) during the weekend, but if pressed for more details, I’d venture to say most of the weekend will actually end up rain-free. Refining and better detailing of the forecast for these days will take place in the next couple updates.

TODAY: Mostly sunny morning. Partly sunny afternoon. Highs 37-44. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy evening. Mostly clear overnight. Lows 23-30. Wind WSW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 41-48. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 31-38. Wind S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.

FRIDAY: Mainly cloudy. Light rain possible in the afternoon. Highs 46-51. Wind S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with rain likely evening. Breaking clouds overnight. Lows 33-40. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Lots of clouds, partial sun. Highs 42-49. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 32-39. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 41-48. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 4-8)

Potential wet weather to start the period as low pressure passes south of the region with high pressure to the north, then mainly dry weather as most low pressure is held to the south and east of the region through the middle and into the latter portion of next week. An upper disturbance may trigger a few rain and snow showers in the region a time or two. No significant temperature extremes.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 9-13)

Trending away from blocking and more west to east flow, but split jet stream with weaker systems. A couple of opportunities for precipitation exist but not looking for major storminess that lingers. Overall temperatures near to above normal / precipitation near normal.

44 thoughts on “Wednesday November 29 2023 Forecast (8:11AM)”

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Turns out Killington picked up 5 inches of snow during the
    day yesterday and another 2 inches overnight.

    Earlier this morning it was not snowing, but it has now started to snow again, but only quite lightly so far. 🙂

    Ocean temp this morning an even 50 degrees. Ever so slowly getting there.

  7. Thanks, TK.

    I am VERY pleasantly surprised by today’s U.S. life expectancy data, released by the CDC.

    The good news on life expectancy is that there was an increase of 1.1 years in life expectancy from 2021 to 2022. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/vsrr/vsrr031.pdf

    The increase of 1.1 years in life expectancy resulted from decreases in mortality due to Covid-19. We’re still not at the life expectancy in 2019, but we’re getting there and it’s faster than I thought it would be.

    This should put to bed all the damn nonsense from anti-vaxxers and Covid deniers. First, Covid-19 was a devastating pandemic. The excess mortality statistics don’t lie. It’s been clear since the beginning of the pandemic, from the data tabulated by the federal government and by universities like Johns Hopkins. Second, the vaccines aren’t killing people or somehow causing excess mortality in the post-vaccination years (part of 2021, 2022 and beyond). Rather, they’ve saved a tremendous number of lives. Third, as Covid waves wane in intensity (both in terms of numbers infected AND virulence) excess mortality drops.

    In the U.S. we still have a lot of work to do to no longer be an outlier compared to our peers. Long before Covid, we were an outlier, with significantly lower life expectancy. But at least today’s figures show we’re no longer in decline mode.

    1. Will read this with interest. Thank you. I’m still hearing that Covid deaths are overblown because many didn’t die from Covid. Instead they died from heart failure or pneumonia, etc.

  8. I’m concerned about Philip. I haven’t seen a post from him in a while.

    Vicki posted that it’s his birthday.

    Happy Birthday, Philip. I hope that all is well.

  11. Quite cold walking the shore today but the breeze was mild (I usually walk at 6:30 AM). We might make it past 35 degrees here in Swampscott today, but just barely.

          1. I’ve read this 4 times and ………….. 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

            A math person can’t do 2 or more English negatives and know what it means, lol.

            2. Awesome. It is absolutely marvelous. A couple grandkids are starting to wonder. Not easy to do with a nana that spends a good part of Christmas Eve watching the sky.

              1. Oops. Using my small screen phone. Thought you meant the book. So now I think you must read at least once 🙂

  15. I’m reading The Autobiography of Santa Claus”. Yep Autobiography

    If you have not, I highly recommend. I read when it first came out and then again a few years ago. Santa tells his story for both adults and young folks. Lots of factual history as well as sharing stories of how some of the magic came about.

  18. Good start to the ski season in some resorts in the US Southeast with a very early cold wave. Some locations in northern FL dropped below freezing this morning. Don’t see that too often in November.

  19. Anything below 80 to Floridians is cold to them. I remember going to Florida in February 2010 and I was in a wind breaker and sweatshirt with temps in the upper 50 to low 60s and the Floridians were in winter coats.

    1. Don’t confuse the Panhandle and north Florida with the rest of the state. It can actually get quite chilly in places like Pensacola, Tallahassee, and Jacksonville. The 33 low in JAX did not set a record this morning (the record was 30) but the normal high/low for today is 70/49.

    2. We found the same when we travelled to Charleston in spring, JJ. They’d say jean and bills crazy New England family is coming and open the pool for us

  20. So far Boston in November has seen twice as many days below normal in temp as they have above normal temp days. Chilly month!

    1. Indeed.

      Some real winter feeling chill I feel like, at least 2 or 3 different times in the last 2 weeks or so.

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