Thursday November 30 2023 Forecast (8:22AM)

49 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 30 – DECEMBER 4)

High pressure to our south will provide a fair, slightly milder day to end November. The early days of December hold some unsettled weather for us. The precise details of how it plays out are still coming into focus but the basic idea is this. A warm front lifts northward into the region on Friday with a shot of light rainfall arriving late in the day end moving out late at night. The boundary I called a warm front initially will sag back to the south as a cold front, eventually to become quasi-stationary during the weekend just to our south. Clouds dominate most of the weekend, but rainfall will be limited, with perhaps a shot of it early Sunday from a weak low pressure wave moving along the frontal boundary, and a more widespread rain arriving Sunday night into Monday with a slightly stronger low moving along the boundary. Currently there is inconsistency from run to run with any single model and non-consensus between different models regarding the play-out of this portion of the unsettled weather event. My leaning based on the meteorology of the situation is for a low pressure wave that moves right across southeastern New England and air too mild to support much in the way of frozen precipitation, hence my forecast wording of “rain”. I’ll watch for colder air to become involved in a substantial enough way to potentially allow the system to end as a mix or some frozen stuff, particularly north and west of Boston, but that’s more detail than I want to dive into in a situation far too uncertain for a day 5 forecast. As always, fine-tuning takes place in the next few forecasts posts. You can also check out comments I post for new insight on the potential.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix southern NH and northern MA with full sun elsewhere this morning. Sunshine and a few high clouds this afternoon. Highs 40-47. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH, a few gusts around 20 MPH South Coast.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 30-37. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Clouding up. Late-day light rain. Highs 46-51. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Light rain evening. Patchy fog overnight. Lows 36-41. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Foggy areas early. Highs 42-49. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of light rain overnight. Lows 35-42. Wind N-NE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Chance of light rain early. Rain likely late in the day. Highs 42-49. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain likely. Areas of fog. Lows 35-42. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely in the morning, ending during the afternoon. Highs 42-49 early, may fall into the 30s before day’s end. Wind N 10-20 MPH, potential for higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 5-9)

Blocking pattern evolves to put most low pressure far enough south to keep us mainly dry with just an upper trough potentially bringing a few rain and/or snow showers into the middle of this week, followed by a fair weather trend as high pressure takes over. Temperatures generally close to normal.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 10-14)

Into mid December we go with a pattern that features a loss of blocking, a return to more zonal flow, more active weather but not seeing “medium-range-reliable” signals for major storms or major temperature swings during this particular period.

49 thoughts on “Thursday November 30 2023 Forecast (8:22AM)”

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Down to 26 here over night.

    Ocean temperature is now under 50 at 49.8 for the
    first time this season (That I know of). Getting there.
    Ocean temp is likely near average, perhaps a nod or 2 above, but
    close to average none-the-less.

      1. Over the last couple days, the model of those 3 with the best handle on the medium range pattern is the Canadian.

          1. Not necessarily. That’s taking the models literally run to run, which we can’t do beyond a couple days. But the general pattern is being handled better, IMO, by that model. The least run-to-run inconsistency and meteorologically it just looks to me like the evolution I’m expecting.

            GFS can’t forecast its way out of an open paper bag, and the European model is displaying some of its biases pretty loudly.

      1. Thanks for sharing your story, Vicki. It’s very special that your mother worked with Henry Kissinger.

        While I have mixed feelings about Mr. Kissinger, especially in regard to our policy on Chile (support of Pinochet), I admired his intellect nonetheless. Furthermore, I think it’s appropriate to not speak critically of someone who just died.

        Speaking of deaths yesterday, my 102 year old friend passed away yesterday morning in Cambridge. She was an extraordinary person: Artist, writer, thinker, with a tremendous joie-de-vivre. Right up until her last full day of life she was enjoying life as best she could. In the end, pneumonia got her as it does many older folks. Thankfully, her labored breathing and so-called death rattle only lasted 6 hours.

        1. Joshua, I am so very sorry to hear if the passing of your friend. Can you just imagine the history she saw/experienced in those 102 years.

          I had mixed feelings also with regard to some of Kissinger’s policies. But knew him as a man who really owed nothing to Belmont but worked closely on several projects …one of which was keeping a lot where an elementary school had burned as a place for kids. The initial town plan was to develop the lot. When my mom passed, her friend took up a collection in town to plant purple lilac bushes in her memory. She ended up collecting enough to plant the bushes and most of the trees throughout the lot.

          I digress as always.

        3. I’m sorry for your loss.

          My aim is to enjoy life the best I can right up until whenever mine reaches its completion point, and to leave the world in any way I can better than I found it, through direct action or inspiring / teaching others the good ways I have learned along the way.

          We have a resident at my place of work who is 102. Former Marine. She is a very sweet lady and still quite sharp for her age!

        4. Joshua, first sorry to hear of your loss but good to know it was not a long, extended passing.

          Agree with the Kissinger thoughts.

  8. GFS operational run thru hour 84 has a little better handle, but I’m waiting to see what it does beyond that. I still don’t trust it.

    If it gives up the idea of another storm around December 6 (direct impact) then I’ll pay a bit more attention.

      1. Yes, since that’s what I’ve been going with for several days already. I’m trying to weed out “bad runs” and inconsistencies, runs with no ensemble support, and also anticipating the errors the guidance is going to make.

        Again, I feel the need to separate what you and others here do with the guidance from a lot of the stuff you see plastered on social media. You are all aware of how this works, and basically you enjoy watching what the guidance does, with the understanding that what you see run to run needs many salt grains poured on it. You know how that goes.

        My issue is with the sites I like to call “fake-met” sites who feel the need to act as if they actually know how to forecast, but in fact just find things that show a scenario they want to happen, then fool as many as they can with their jazzed up posts. Again, I try to ignore these as much as I can, but day after day I get messages that will share such a post with me and ask “is this really going to happen?” or say “hey, look what so-and-so is talking about” etc etc. I can’t ignore those, because I feel it’s a duty of mine to inform as many people as I can of bad info out there, and ask them to spread the word, so the information being paid attention to is from credible sources, such as here, any of our fine actual meteorologists in the area, the ones who contribute here, and the ones we have in our local and regional media, and of course, the NWS. We may not always agree on the analysis, and you may or may not be a fan of a certain person’s presentation, etc, but you’ll always do better with “real” sources. Spread the word. 🙂

        1. Of course, agree 100%.
          I’m just trying to get a handle on what WILL happen or what we “expect” to happen as the case may be.

          Of course, I am looking for SNOW chances. 🙂
          Not looking too good, but guidance beyond 3 or 4 days
          is USELESS!!!!

          1. It’s all good Dave. I know you know the real deal, and I know you love looking at the runs. It’s always amusing to me (and others) to watch you do that and your classic commentary. You’ve been around since the beginning of this blog. Wouldn’t be the same if we didn’t have “The JPD Model & Weather Commentary Show”. 🙂

            2. I sure agree with every single word. And I love to follow Dave’s posts. They are a big part of what makes this blog awesome.

    1. As noted in my discussion, I feel it will be too mild and we don’t quite have the mechanism in place to pull enough cold air down into SNE for a “snow event”. I feel the most we end up with is a mix of sorts at the end of that, and even that may be a stretch.

      Go north, maybe something will happen. It’s far more likely at this point in the late autumn anyway to happen up there than down here. 🙂

    2. This looks like the right idea to me.

      And I won’t complain with a dry December 6.

      The annual candlelight vigil at the Angel of Hope statue in Woburn (and at many other of these statues around the country) takes place that evening. We’ve had it in bitter cold, warm windy rain showers, cold and calm, a gentle snowfall, and other conditions, and we’ll be out there either way, but it will be nice if we’re able to get everybody there who wants to be there. 🙂

      FYI: The angel of hope was inspire by a book called The Christmas Box by Richard Paul Evans. The story was made into a movie that starred Richard Thomas and Maureen O’Hara. The statues are located in various locations as places for those who have lost children to visit, alone or in this case gather together, to remember them. At the Woburn one, there are memorial bricks for many of the children. My mother had one put there for my brother Dinny. There is more to the story of how this one ended up here in Woburn, and it hits very close to home for me. I’ll share more info on that on December 6.

      2. The story gives me chills. Thank you, Brian. Please know you and your family are now and will be in my prayers A friend of my daughters who tragically lost his child helped found the Angel of Hope cemetery in Uxbridge.

  14. Thanks TK

    I never say really bad things about someone who just died, but I have no love for Kissinger. He was responsible for so much death around the world. Including the Middle East, his staunch support for Israel changed US policy forever. As an Arab/American I say good riddance.

    1. Knowing that he gave so much for a town that owed him nothing I have a different and more personal view. He was a tremendous advocate for my mom and honored her in helping create a testimony in her memory. Might have been better to go with not saying anything about those who had passed. Sorry I mentioned here

      1. Hi Vicki,

        Don’t apologize for expressing your opinion about Henry Kissinger. We may have different opinions about him but he meant a lot to you and I appreciate you sharing your story. Thank you!

        1. Thank you. Your words mean a lot. My political views may be very different regarding the man too. But I mentioned his passing, as you kindly said, only because it brought nice memories of my mom and how he helped her on just some of all she did throughout her life for a town she loved. I am sorry I said anything, but just because it ended up somehow taking away from those memories. Your post gives me happier tears. Thank you again ❤️

  15. Thanks, TK

    SAK: When I posted on Monday that I heard you on WSAR on Monday morning, I was going ask you where Happy Hec was.
    I just found out that Happy Hec (Hector Gauthier) passed away last Friday. Happy Hec was a legend on the South Coast on the air for 60 years!!! He would have been 81 on December 15.

    I am so sorry for you and Rob, SAK.

    In Hec’s obituary I read that Fr. Mike Racine came up to New Hampshire to bless your new weather center. I worked with Fr. Mike in the 1980s at a local summer camp for underprivileged kids.

    I am still upset at the passing of another morning drive DJ, WZLX’s Kevin Karlson, about a month ago.

  16. MJO is outta the circle.
    Now through December 10: Moves from phase 3 through 4 and 5 at weak to moderate strength.
    December 10-20: Moves through phase 6 and into phase 7 at moderate strength.

    Favorable phases for snow lovers: 8, 1, 2.

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