Friday December 8 2023 Forecast (6:46AM)

53 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 8-12)

High pressure over the region will slide offshore through Saturday with fair weather and a milder trend. A low pressure trough swinging into the Northeast will propel a strong frontal boundary across our region later Sunday through early Monday, parented by low pressure passing to our northwest. A surge of warmer air and increasing wind ahead of this system culminates in a band of moderate to heavy rain with possible thunder, and strong wind gusts from the south. As the front crosses the region and exits to the east near or shortly after sunrise Monday, then rain will abruptly shut off and the wind, which will drop off slightly, will shift to the west. During the day Monday we can expect a cool-down with gusty winds while we dry out. Cold advection snow showers should remain generally west and northwest of our region, but I can’t rule out a stray snow flurry later in the day in the hilly terrain of north central MA through southwestern NH. A quick and sharp shot of cold will be felt along with wind chill Monday night. Tuesday, except fair weather and a seasonable chill as we’ll be influenced by high pressure to our southwest.

TODAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 43-50. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 56-63. Wind S 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with rain and embedded thunderstorms. Lows 50-57. Wind S 15-30 MPH, higher gusts – above 40 MPH inland, above 50 MPH coastal areas.

MONDAY: Cloudy at dawn with rain exiting west to east early morning, then a sun/cloud mix. A late-day snow shower possible north central MA / southwestern NH. Highs 52-59 early, then cooling to 40s. Wind W 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. An early evening snow shower possible north central MA / southwestern NH. Lows 22-29. Wind chill below 20. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts, diminishing overnight.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 38-45. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 13-17)

A brief rain or snow shower possible December 13 as a cold front moves through. Fair and seasonable mid period. Watching for the return of clouds and possible precipitation end of the period but low confidence.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 18-22)

Up and down temps, no extremes, and a mainly dry pattern during this period with a mostly west to northwest flow dominating the region.

53 thoughts on “Friday December 8 2023 Forecast (6:46AM)”

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Down to 24 overnight here.

    Ocean Temp: 49.1

    looks like sun night event will end as snow in VT. They may end up ok after all. NH and Maine will be far worse off.

    Gfs has a corker at 966 mb for about 9 days out. We know it will not verify. no support from canadian or euro

    We shall see IF it is still there on 12z run.

        2. 12Z NAM for Sunday night strengthens to 85-90 knots
          or 98-103 mph.

          https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=850wh&rh=2023120812&fh=72&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

          Mix to 70% and we get 70 mph wind gusts.
          Mix only to 50% and we get about 50 mph wind gusts.

          I guess TK and the NWS expect mixing to be only about
          50% or so.

          How can one tell HOW much mixing there will be?
          What if there is convective thunder? Wouldn’t that provide
          at least temporary MORE mixing?

          Oh well, should be a WILD night,

  10. Strong Winds – Guidance remains in fair agreement a robust LLJ will
    cross SNE late night into Monday, generally 00z to 18z Monday. The
    jet remains the strongest over the waters, likely to bring the
    strongest of the winds to RI and eastern MA; including locations
    from Cape Ann to Cape Cod, and the adjacent islands. As mentioned
    above, the 925mb southerly winds over RI and SE MA are between 70
    and 80 knots. While further west/inland the 925mb winds are 40 to 60
    knots. It is still difficult to say how much of the wind will mix
    down to the surface due to an inversion below the LLJ. DESI mean
    wind gust across SNE suggests 40 to 50 MPH gusts, while the south
    coast of RI, SE MA, and Cape Ann are closer to 60 MPH. But there is
    the potential for some of the stronger winds to mix down during
    convective showers, more on that in a bit. Similar to last night,
    the ECMWF ensemble continues with 60 and 80 percent probabilities of
    gusts exceeding 50 knots for the south coast of RI, SE MA, and Cape
    Ann. Plus there are lower probabilities between 20 and 40 percent of
    gusts exceeding 64 knots across the outer Cape and Nantucket. At
    this point there are no wind headlines issued, but it is becoming
    more likely it will be needed Sunday night into Monday. It is worth
    noting after the surface low tracks north and away from SNE there
    will be CAA, allowing for less strong winds aloft to mix down easier
    to the surface, below advisory criteria between 25 and 35 MPH, still
    plenty of time to watch this.

    Taunton’s reasonings for their wind projections at the current time.

  12. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2023120812&fh=69

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2023120812&fh=72

    Compared to hr 69, hr 72 really shows a maturing system, even if we only look at the simulated radar.

    To the south of the low, can really see that cold front being whipped out over the Atlantic, tailing southeastward from the low.

    If one looks north, the snow looks like its bulging back to the northwest of the low, so, sort of that negative tilt low.

    A lot of times, with these strong low level jets, the sfc low, I think, is usually tracking up over Albany or Burlington, but this one is right through central MA, so, it reasons the better dynamics are even closer than usual.

    I think this wind event is really something to watch for the eastern third of our area.

    1. even more noticeable still at hr 75, where the cold front is now almost aligned ESE from the low, meaning the low is really intensifying and wrapping the airmasses around it. Yet, the snow hangs in there in VT, as the NW quadrant maintains great lift.

  14. Zappe made some throws in the first half that quite frankly were awesome. Best ones we’ve seen around here in quite some time, as in 2019. Understandably they never opened up the playbook much with Zappe under center before, but had Zappe been the QB all year and had they opened it up I think the Patriots would be a 6 and 7 team. Not great, obviously, but better than 3 and 10.

      1. Honestly both, look at long range GFS clearly show pacific air flooding the country. Similar theme from the Euro. Plus very prominent and smart folks on Twitter.

        “A +EAMT (which some have already discussed) is anticipated to occur in 5-7 days, forcing a potentially significant Pacific jet extension. If this occurs anywhere close to the magnitude that ensembles imply, North America will be flooded by mild, Pacific air (not ideal for snow)”

  17. MJO update. Not much change, but a little stronger evidence today that the MJO will get stuck in phase 6/7 then drop into the circle and skip 8/1 and then re-emerge in 2 sometime around or just after Christmas. Going out on a limb there but as Altitude Lou use to say, “that’s the way it looks from here!”

    Also, Philip won’t mind that I share with you all that I did speak to him briefly. He needs to spend some time taking care of some things right now, but he hopes to be back whenever possible! In the mean time he extends a wish for happy holidays, Merry Christmas, and happy New Year to all!

      1. That is indeed him. “Altitude Lou” McNally. He’s most well known in Maine as a TV met and musician. He’s retired from the media now. He spent time at several TV stations in the area, primarily Maine, but also had a stint in Boston (WBZ).

        In the video, he’s on the left, playing acoustic guitar and contributing vocals with his group Altitude Lou and the Tropical Depressions.

  23. Thanks, TK

    Super news about Philip!

    Wonder if schools, the Monday morning commute will be affected by the winds, Tom.

    1. I don’t think the schools would be impacted by any wind . It’s just a rainy Monday with some wind

    2. I wondered too. Leaves are mostly off trees; so that is good; but with a soft ground, could be power outages or blocked roads.

    3. The thought had crossed my mind too, Captain.

      A lot of Marshfield’s roads cut through thick forests, so, if we start getting big wind 4/5 am, and that starts bringing down trees, well I’ve seen Marshfield lose days to down trees and no power.

      I think we’ll be ok, but we’ll see …….

    1. Most definitely. The climax of this system included thundersnow with lightning frequency not that far below that of a summer thunderstorm.

      This was “the window blizzard” for me. I was recovering from a fast-hitting, fast-departing stomach bug that rolled through everybody here, and I had to call out from work the night before. It was probably the “luckiest” unpleasant illness I’ve had, because I didn’t have to be on the road, and I was also not able to do snow removal for this, so I just got to enjoy it from inside while I recovered.

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