Saturday December 9 2023 Forecast (9:07AM)

86 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 9-13)

This weekend will end very differently than it begins. Today we have a tranquil and mild day as high pressure slides offshore, with a sun/cloud mix giving way to more clouds. A sharp low pressure trough and associated strong cold front will move eastward into the region during Sunday and Sunday night. This system is going to bring a surge of warmer air and a fairly short-duration but high impact wind/rain event to the region Sunday night. The first rain showers move into the region Sunday afternoon, but a more general band of rain, some heavy, with potential embedded thunder, will cross the region Sunday night from west to east, while the individual elements are moving northward. The strongest wind and heaviest rain will occur in the warm sector ahead of the cold front, which will also have a wave of low pressure develop near the northern Mid Atlantic and strengthen rapidly as it moves up across our region in the early hours of Monday. This prolongs the heavy rain enough for a general 1-3 inches, with heaviest expected to be west of I-95 where some flooding of streams and poor drainage areas is most likely. Ponding of water on roadways can be a driving hazard anywhere during the event. The wind gusts will be strongest in areas east of I-95, particularly coastal locations, where there is the greatest risk of tree damage and isolated to scattered power outages. As the cold front is pulled quickly eastward after the low pressure wave moves north of our latitude, we’ll see a fairly quick shut-off to the rainfall, a wind shift to the west and an end to the strongest wind. We’ll also experience a steady temperature fall on Monday from very mild early morning highs to a more seasonably chilly finish. The arrival of cold air will be met with drying, but there will be enough moisture wrapping around the back side of the strengthening and departing low pressure area to cause some snow showers, mainly over higher elevations of central MA to southwestern NH Monday afternoon and evening. Gusty winds continue through Monday evening as we get a quick shot of cold air. Tuesday and Wednesday will feature fair, dry weather and more seasonably chilly air with a westerly flow. A cold front will approach from a weak low traveling eastward to the north of our region on Wednesday, which will feature more clouds than Tuesday.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix – clouds win out later. Highs 44-51. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Rain showers possible in the afternoon, especially I-95 belt westward. Highs 56-63. Wind S 5-15 MPH morning, 15-25 MPH afternoon, higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with rain and embedded thunderstorms. Lows 50-57. Wind S 15-30 MPH, higher gusts – above 40 MPH inland, above 50 MPH coastal areas.

MONDAY: Cloudy into mid morning with rain exiting from west to east. Sun/cloud mix late morning on with a passing afternoon snow shower possible favoring higher elevations central MA and southwestern NH. Highs 52-59 early, then cooling to 40s. Wind W 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind chill below 20. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts, diminishing overnight.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 14-18)

Fair, seasonably cool followed by a slight milder trend December 14-16. Watching December 17-18 period for potential impact from low pressure with a precipitation chance – early idea is rain favored over frozen precip.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 19-23)

No temperature extremes. Overall west to northwest flow and generally dry weather, but may need to watch for a system with potential precipitation near the end of this period.

86 thoughts on “Saturday December 9 2023 Forecast (9:07AM)”

  1. Good morning and thank you TK.

    OCEAN TEMP: 48.9

    Models don’t exactly agree on things with this event.
    GFS not as robust with wind. while the NAM is very robust and the others not so robust on the wind.

    NAM is the least robust for VT snow, while GFS is the most robust with others in between.

    I am hopeful that the SKI areas up North come out of this
    with at least a small net gain of snow if not much more.
    That would be some saving grace.

  8. Thanks TK.

    Just arrived at Killington. Different world up here with deep snow cover and big snow banks. 65 trails open including many natural snow trails. Probably the highest trail count I can recall here this early in the season.

    Thank goodness this storm tomorrow has shifted 300 miles east. Winter storm watches are up here!

      2. Looks like the backside cold air in the column at many levels, is marginal, so, snow ratios might be 10:1 or even 7:1

        If the backside cold air was just a little chillier.

        All in all, still a win for western ski areas in northern New England.

  12. JJ I saw your this day in history at the end of yesterdays blog. I sure do remember 2005 complete with thunder snow.

    I wonder how many remember 45 years ago today. It started with heavy rain and ended with significant snow. Mac and I were married at 4:00. Our reception was at the tennis club on Belmont hill. There was a fire in the huge fieldstone fireplace with a wall of glass overlooking the conservation land as the snow piled up. It was spectacular.

    We spent the night at the Hyatt overlooking the Charles’s. It was the first time I’d seen thunder snow.

    There was a December 9 storm a few years ago too. And quite a few big ones right around the 9th. ‘Tis a special date ❤️

      1. I’d heard yesterday….undoubtedly on here but maybe twitter…that the Jay Peak area was going go get a good amount.

        I chatted with my brother last night. He said this is much like the winters he remembers. I had been thinking the very same.

  15. Other than the NAM snow #’s being over-inflated, the general areas I agree with. NWS snow forecast is on the idea of what I figure things will go like for western and northwestern New England.

    That’s the type of system this one will be…

    1. I just hope most ski areas come in with a net gain, if that is possible in this situation. Anything more would be a bonus.

      And yes, I understand the NAM numbers are likely over inflated. 🙂

      I just hope they don’t lose too much snow before the flip from rain to snow. I will be watching. Oh wait, I won’t be watching as the flip will likely be in the middle of the night. 🙂

  20. It’s very interesting/frustrating watching the GFS on this system.

    It’s either right (interesting) as we get closer and the low is more elongated and takes a little longer to compact to one low and strengthen.

    Or it’s frustrating and its idea from yesterday is more accurate but it’s got it wrong today.

  21. NWS discussion concerning wnds

    Damaging Winds – Confidence remains high for strong to damaging wind
    across southern New England for Sunday night through Monday morning.
    A `High Wind Watch` continues for Cape Cod and the Islands, includes
    the Elizabeth Islands and Block Island. Greatest challenge are how
    much of those strong winds associated with the LLJ are going to mix
    down to the surface. To reiterate, BUFKIT continues to show a low
    level inversion, which could trap the strongest winds above the
    ground. Since the strongest winds aloft are across the waters,
    confidence remained too low to expand the watch any further west.
    For what it is worth, the ECMWF ensemble has shifted the max wind
    gusts down, but still a note worthy 50-80 percent change for max
    wind gusts over the Cape and Islands to exceed 50 knots. As
    mentioned before, as we get closer to the event this watch can
    either be upgraded to a warning or replaced by a `Wind Advisory`. Do
    expect there will be areas west of the current watch that do fall
    under an advisory leading up to Sunday night.

  25. Thanks, TK

    Wanted to charge up the generator an hour ago and the starter cord broke. My small engine repair people can’t come until Tuesday, so I am hoping we’re okay with power tomorrow night into Monday! I do not believe the sump pump has been running, so I think we’ll be okay. I have an inverter and a marine battery to keep the pump running in needed.

    Always something!

    Vicki and JJ, thanks for the reminder of the December 9, 2005 sudden blizzard. I have mentioned this before here, but that storm was the most intense weather events in my life. I remember totally whiteout conditions in the school parking lot and hearing pine trees snapping on our campus. A normal 25-minute was 2.5 hours from Middleborough to Taunton. Thundersnow and hurricane-force winds when I left school at 2:30. It was raining at 1:30.

    I have saved the NWS-BOX post-mortem on that storm. Here’s the link:

    https://photos.app.goo.gl/PsarKZvFs2DRF6i1A

  27. And, finally, thanks Joshua for posting great music lately!!!

    Last week, you played The Cars.

    I was on campus radio at Vanderbilt from 1978-1982 and we were leaving the disco era and coming into new wave and punk.
    We played the heck out of The Cars albums.

    “All Mixed Up” is my all-time favorite and I first heard this song on WBCN:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0oxJDZaLmDg

  30. This may have already happened north of here, but last night and tonight are the earliest sunsets (4:14:46) of the year for Taunton. I know this always happens around December 8, but I always feel like we’ve “finally made it” and we’ll start getting our light back in the afternoon starting tomorrow! 🙂

        2. These aren’t surface winds are they, JPD? How do you interpret this map for surface gusts? I am specifically interested in Middleborough and Marshfield for school Monday morning for me and Tom and others who lives “down here.”

          2. No, those are wind gusts at 850 mb or roughly 5,000 feet give or take.

            Depending on the amount of mixing between that altitude and the surface some of that wind can make it to the surface. Convective rain helps with that.

            Some are projecting that something like 50% will mix, but if more mixing takes place, the winds can be stronger.

            The map I posted way above is for SURFACE wind gusts in mph.

            Cheers

  32. I doubt the 18z NAM is right but if it is NY will take over the lead in the snowfall standings. Boston I think you still safe of not losing the top spot with 0.2 inches of snow so far this season.

  38. In that same December parts of SNE had thundersnow on Christmas Day. I missed out on thundersnow for that storm system. I am still waiting for thundersnow.
    Thoughts and prayers with the folks in the Nashville, TN area with strong violent tornado coming through that metro area.

  40. Channel 4 in Nashville is reporting multiple deaths in Nashville and Montgomery County, TN.

  43. On the wind, I just can’t help notice the low is strengthening so close to us.

    I feel like a lot of these low level jet situations, the sfc low is a lot further west, but this looks to be intensifying on a track fairly close to us.

    I sure hope the inversion around 925mb is as dependable as Taunton thinks it is, cause if it’s not, Cohasset southwestward to perhaps eastern Narragansett Bay and all areas southeast of that line might be in for quite a 4-6 hr gust event. Even wondering about shorter NW gust immediately following the low’s passage.

    1. I continue to be worried about our area, Tom. To my untrained eyes, I know that the HRRR wind gusts are nearly always overdone, but the 0z shows the winds increasing throughout the morning. There is a 72 mph gust in Bristol County at 13z. There 40+ knot winds for 10 hours, from 05z to 15z!!!

      2. Yes. Many hours, as you say of gusting to 40 or 50, I’ll even go with mph. That’s going to cause some issues. Just a question of if it’s truly the Cape and the Islands or how much further north and west of the Cape bridges.

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