Monday December 11 2023 Forecast (7:22AM)

73 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 11-15)

A cold front will pull offshore to the east by mid morning, putting an end to the rain and wind event. The strongest winds ended up more confined to Cape Cod and were very limited elsewhere, which is good. Heavy rainfall has resulted in some street and minor stream flooding, but in general with the lack of heavier rainfall events recently, the drainage system took it well, other than parking lot and road drains that may have been debris-blocked. Watch for ponding of water and additional heavy rain early on if you are about to travel mainly from I-95 eastward, but these issues quickly go away. The rest of today will see a drying trend with a gusty breeze and a chill-down. But this is not arctic air moving in behind this front, so just chilly and not “wicked cold”. The weather pattern for the rest of the week will be quiet. A broad low pressure trough will keep it chilly through midweek. A reinforcing cold front swings through Wednesday with a possible flurry, otherwise dry weather prevails. The trough exits and a flat upper ridge arrives to initiate a temperature moderation at the end of the week.

TODAY: Cloudy into mid morning with rain exiting from west to east. Sun/cloud mix late morning on with a passing afternoon snow shower possible favoring higher elevations central MA and southwestern NH. Highs 40-47 except 48-55 Cape Cod early before falling. Wind S 15-30 MPH with higher gusts over Cape Cod early, otherwise W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind chill below 20. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts, diminishing overnight.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. A passing snow shower possible. Highs 37-44. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy then clearing. Lows 22-29. Wind WNW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 32-39. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 17-24. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 42-49. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 16-20)

Overall pattern is expected to feature a westerly flow with near to above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation heading through the final days of astronomical autumn. Southern jet stream moisture is expected to remain far to the south, with an ocean storm staying well offshore mid to late period. A weaker disturbance or two can swing through here via the Great Lakes and cause minor rain/snow showers a couple times with short-lived colder shots in an overall milder pattern.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 21-25)

A similar but possibly slightly more amplified pattern heading from the Winter Solstice to Christmas. No indications of major storminess. We do have a shot at a quick precipitation event or two. Temperatures are likely to be variable, but average near to above normal for the period.

73 thoughts on “Monday December 11 2023 Forecast (7:22AM)”

  5. Interesting that the ocean temp is at
    46.9 degrees with that warm Southerly wind. Some upwelling?

    Must be close to average now, if it stays that way. Likely to come back up to 48-49.

    We shall see.

  6. Thanks, TK.

    Wondering about the record for precipitation/rainfall in a calendar year. Back in September SAK noted that we (Boston and vicinity) were already well above average for the year. But for a 7 week period from October 8th until the end of November it was quite dry. Since then the rains have picked up again.

  8. I am disappointed in the lack of consistent cold. It’s been a very long time since we’ve had a cold December. Also disappointed that real snow chances (I never include flurries) are non-existent around here, at least for the foreseeable future.

    While it’s dark, it doesn’t feel like winter in the slightest. Yet another extension of fall. A couple of low 20s mornings don’t cut it for me. They were nice but sparse. I do hope we don’t have another dud, or a prolonged period of autumn followed by spring, but I’m fearful we might.

    1. Agreed. It’s early yet, don’t despair. Let’s see how it plays out.
      Given, that, I share you concerns about yet another DUD.
      Can’t proclaim that just yet, though.

      1. Yep. While I do think we get some winter, it is shortened. It’s Been moving that way for several years (somewhere I’ve heard a little birdie mentioning it on here for a while 🙂 ). I’m pleased to see our Mets mentioning this.

  9. Logan picked up 2.14 inches while Pawtucket, RI received 3.16 inches and Bridgeport, CT 3.57 inches.

    Still raining in Boston, but looks to wind down very soon.

    btw, best I can tell so far Killington got ONLY 3 inches of snow
    out of this mess. Too bad. Still snowing there, so we shall see what the final total is, plus the 3 inches reported, might be old.
    Looking at the web cams and people walking through the snow, the 3 inches looked accurate to me. 🙂

  14. Thank you, TK

    Tom and Captain. Sure didn’t sound like a pleasant start to your day. Glad you are safe. Hope buses arrive safely too.

    1. Thanks Vicki !

      It was just so dark with the late sunrise.

      If it had been 8 or 9am, I don’t think it would have been as challenging.

      1. It’s my worry if we get rid of the fall back. It was a mess in the mid 1970s

        I’d say the actual name but I can never remember what one we are in. I’m usually too busy just enjoying them

  15. 3.10 here.

    I don’t think anyone has checked basement yet. By midnight, the outage map showed Sutton as the jackpot. No surprise. If one sneezes too hard, parts of town go out. It was quickly restored though.

  16. Not that the GFS should be trusted, but it is showing another BIG RAIN event for the 18th

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2023121106&fh=183

    then inverted trough snow event along about Christmas Eve day

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2023121106&fh=312

    24 hour Kuchera Snow for that one

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_024h-imp&rh=2023121106&fh=318&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    total run Kuchera Snow

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023121106&fh=384&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

  19. What does 4G10 or 1G6 etc mean for nws wind speed. I suspect I’ve asked before but don’t remember. Thank you

    1. Whatever the scale is Mph, kmh or m/s (meters per second)
      the first number is sustained, usually a minute or 2 minute average and the G stands for gusts and the 2nd # is the gust in whatever scale is being used.

      So for your 2 examples let’s use mph

      4 mph steady wind with gusts to 10
      AND
      1 mph steady wind with gusts to 6

      Cheers

    1. Not for Nothing, but that must be old.
      I am seeing Marshfiled as winds WNW at 9mph from MESO West

      and here is the latest NWS obs

      Marshfield Airport, MA
      (KGHG) 42.0983N 70.6722W

      2 Day History

      Overcast
      45.0 °F
      Last Updated: Dec 11 2023, 10:35 am EST
      Mon, 11 Dec 2023 10:35:00 -0500
      Weather: Overcast
      Temperature: 45.0 °F (7.0 °C)
      Dewpoint: 42.8 °F (6.0 °C)
      Relative Humidity: 93 %
      Wind: from the West at 11.5 gusting to 17.3 MPH (10 gusting to 15 KT)
      Wind Chill: 39 F (4 C)
      Visibility: 10.00 miles
      Altimeter: 29.51 in Hg
      Latest Raw Observation

        1. I was just about to point that out. That was 4:15 AM where
          it was 29 gusting to 52. 🙂

          BUT, It now confirms what I said was accurate. 🙂

  22. Not looking good for snow in the foreseeable future. Wasn’t really expecting much in December this year anyway but was hoping for a few minor events. On to January?

    SNE Weather by Owen
    @SNEWxCenter
    4h

    Not to beat a dead horse, but the upcoming pattern is just absolutely abysmal for multiple weeks on end. A flood of pacific air will lead to temps well above avg

    https://x.com/SNEWxCenter/status/1734179774421987463?s=20

    John Homenuk
    @jhomenuk
    21h

    The narrative that the pacific jet extension is “trending weaker” is bizarre and completely incorrect. This remains one of the strongest ensemble signals for an extended pacific jet that I have seen at this lead time. #energy #natgas

    https://x.com/jhomenuk/status/1733920472092356620?s=20

  24. Looks like VT underachieved from this system overall based on the snow totals I am seeing coming in this AM.

    Mitch
    @VermonsterWx
    1h

    BUST! Looks like measly inch or so of snow this morning. I was thinking we’d have 4-5” by now with another 1-3” through the day today. I knew I was in trouble when I was still rain at 3 am. I had a sneaking suspicion it might bust yesterday, but I didn’t want to acknowledge it.

    https://x.com/VermonsterWx/status/1734218866895561008?s=20

  25. My money is on another big rain event next week at this time. That will surely verify.

    I count my blessings when I can, and we’ve had several marvelous stretches of weather this year, especially in October and November. But overall it’s not been a nice year weather-wise. Too much rain, too much humidity, too little cold. There’s nothing we can do about it. But I’m hopeful for a better 2024.

    1. He added

      “ Interesting to note that the only times a 63F winter dewpoint occurred were during 2 of the recent very strong El Nino events (1982 and 2015)”

  28. Mark,

    You have totally wrecked my day, week and month. You hit
    the trifecta, for sure!!!!

    NOT that I didn’t already know that. 🙂 🙂 🙂

    FAST forward to JANUARY and see IF it is MORE OF THE SAME OLE CRAP! IF things don’t change in JANUARY
    I am PREPARED to DECLARE WINTER OVER!!!!

    The Winter that never was!!

    OK, TK you can chime in now and Say it isn’t even Astronomcal Winter yet. Quit your beefing! 🙂 🙂 🙂

    Nah, we’ll beef regardless.

    1. Back in 2015 people were declaring winter over before it started after it started and right up until the middle of January even late January.

      And then after the following 6 weeks some of them declare that they would never make that mistake again but most of them have…. 😉

    2. Sorry, normally I try not to be a kill joy when it comes to looking at future snow threats but I am not seeing much that excites me in the near to mid term future.

      Winter is most certainly not over and I still do think it is going to get colder and more active in January.

    2. Sucks. Seriously.

      Mark’s posts above suggest a long duration Pacific zonal pattern ahead. I really hope this doesn’t come to fruition.

  31. Well, looks like the models are consistent over the next 4 days featuring a glancing blow of cold air followed by a rush of Pacific air racing across central Canada and into New England.

    I’m pleasantly shocked by the consistency of the GFS and Euro.

  32. Thank you Tk.

    Tk you mentioned it’s looking drier around here. Any thoughts on OrlandoFlorida for next week? Does it look dry too? Thank you

  33. I just hope there is a good snow storm or two while I am in Mass, it was looking good for a little bit, but everytime I look the favorable period seems to be getting pushed further and further into January. I am in Mass from December 15th to January 10. Same thing has happened the last several years in which we haven’t had much in December/early January

            2. I disagree with the “torch” aspect. That indicates very warm weather relative to normal. We won’t really have that either. We get “cool” shots from Canada, but they are not of arctic origin.

              We’ve had much, much warmer Decembers than this one will end up being.

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