Tuesday December 12 2023 Forecast (6:55AM)

42 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 12-16)

A quiet weather pattern is ours over the next 5 days. We’ll have mainly dry weather with the only precipitation chance being a possible snow shower with a weak cold front scooting across the region during Wednesday. Temperatures trend a little colder through Thursday, before moderating late in the week.

TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. A passing snow shower possible. Highs 37-44. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy then clearing. Lows 22-29. Wind WNW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 32-39. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 17-24. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 42-49. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 23-30. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 44-51. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 17-21)

Low pressure to the south spreads clouds our way by the end of the weekend and may send some wind/rain into the region for a brief time early next week, depending on its track, before dry weather makes a return. Temperatures variable but averaging slightly above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 22-26)

Fairly dry, seasonable to mild pattern leading up to about Christmas. Possible unsettled weather late in the period. White Christmas chances are lower than climatology for southeastern New England in this pattern.

42 thoughts on “Tuesday December 12 2023 Forecast (6:55AM)”

        1. That system is typical for El Niño. It occludes very far south though and probably ends up lesser or minimal impact here.

    1. Where does the data come from? If any of it comes from the known overcooked equipment in some of our official reporting locations than I have a hard time taking any of these reports seriously.

  13. Only the GF uselesS could create an evolution of an east coast storm, like it has on its 12z run.

    Hrs 126- hr 210

    Sure, that’s gonna happen !

  15. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.gefs.fcst.png

    https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.gefs.fcst.png

    NAO and AO both strongly positive, which mostly explains the upcoming pattern.

    Strongly positive AO suggests compacting, perhaps strengthening polar vortex, with all arctic air retreating northward, closer to the pole, at least on our side of the hemisphere.

    Strong positive NAO suggests progressive flow. Any cold air that can get away from the Arctic will quickly flow southeastward, but then continue out into the North Atlantic Ocean.

    I guess that leaves the condition of the central Atlantic and what kind of ridging there might be out there to support all the Gulf moisture possibly turning up the coast in a week ??????

    1. Back around Dec 1, I mentioned that around Dec 10 that AO would return to positive.

      I mentioned this on a site that is known for wish-casting and was strongly disagreed with, saying that arctic blasts and snowstorms would be the highlight of the second half of December.

      No, no they will not. Meteorology, not modelology. Forecasting, not wishcasting. 🙂

  16. Thanks, TK.

    I’ve thrown in the towel for December. Not liking anything I’ve seen on the models or in forecasts in the mid- and even long-range. It doesn’t mean winter will be a dud. But it increases the chances of winter once again being mostly dormant.

    1. To be sure, that is a possible outcome = quiet December ends up being part of a dormant winter.

      But, I can’t fully buy into that possible correlation.

      It may happen, but I don’t see it as being predictable. I just don’t see how anyone can know what Jan and Feb will bring while sitting in December.

      I think there’s just as good a chance it can be an active Jan and Feb.

      Of course, it could be a lot of rain, if its too warm 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

    3. In other words, December is going about as expected (as noted in the post on November 22). 🙂

    2. A typical El Nino cyclone that matures down there.

      Sometimes there’s a mentality that these systems always intensify as they come up this way. Not if they mature down there. They weaken as they come up this way (if they come up this way).

  18. I take it from your note this morning that you don’ t think the storm forecast for next Monday will be a big deal. Given the timing and rear view mirror effect, seems like several Mets are painting a similar picture to the last storm. Still very early it seems.

    1. That system and the upcoming one are very different, meteorologically.

      The previous one was a strong front and a deep trough, with waves on the front.

      The next one will be a trough further south and a cyclone that will mature well south of our area and stretch out in a different fashion than the elongated waves of low pressure on the front from the previous system.

      I feel like things like this are often overlooked, or at least poorly communicated to the public, and I think that part is important in helping people understand the whys, without overwhelming them with TMI.

  19. For anyone interested in recent pieces of mine in Forbes, you can find them here: https://www.forbes.com/sites/joshuacohen/?sh=51cd0caa594c

    I wish I could write about weather on the Forbes site, but I’m not allowed to. It’s not in my “swim lane” of public health and economics. Though, earlier this year I did write a piece about the health effects of extreme heat versus cold. The latter is FAR more deadly than the former, by the way. Much to my chagrin, frankly. I love cold and hate heat. But I’m a data-driven writer. While I offer opinions they must be substantiated by evidence. And I follow the evidence wherever it leads. This isn’t fashionable these days. Many people start out with a preconceived notion or strong opinion and that try and find facts to support it. Happens on the political right and left. I detest this practice.

  21. While winter has retreated from Northwestern Europe and even Central Europe, it’s in full swing and has been for a while throughout most of Russia. It’s snowing right now in Moscow. Temp is -9C (16F). It’s been snowing every other day for a while and that looks to continue.

    1. Quebec City has a somewhat similar weather pattern to Moscow. Sunnier than Moscow, certainly in winter. But similarly cold (usually a bit colder than Moscow) and frequent snows. And that’s what’s happening this year, too. The Pacific zonal flow makes little difference up there. A parade of systems traverse the area and almost always bring snow, followed by days of sunshine and cold. Idyllic weather in my book. Only 400 miles separate us from QC, but in winter it seems like QC is on another planet.

    2. Some of the cold anomalies in Siberia are impressive. Coldest weather since the early 1980s once again.

      Interestingly, the media has been completely quiet about that.

      I’m not surprised though.

      Still perplexed that some scientists seem to be ignoring the unprecedented amount of water vapor put into the stratosphere by the HT volcano and how that lead to a quick spike in global temperature. You can’t ignore something that’s clearly there. It’s very bad science.

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