Thursday December 14 2023 Forecast (7:16AM)

78 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 14-18)

High pressure provides quiet mid December weather for the next few days, well into the weekend in fact, with one cold day today, then a moderation. Late in the weekend we’ll see clouds arrive ahead of low pressure which is expected to send its moisture our way for a bout of rain and some wind Sunday night and especially Monday. The sensible weather details still have to be worked out, but the overall idea is a low pressure area that will intensify and mature well to our south, but elongate and move its way up here. What is high confidence is that the air will be too mild to support any frozen precipitation, so we’re looking at a rain event.

TODAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 32-39. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 17-24. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 42-49. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 23-30. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 44-51. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 27-34. Wind W under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 47-54. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain arrives. Lows 40-47. Wind SE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially coastal areas.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely. Highs 48-55. Wind SE-S 15-25 MPH, higher gusts especially coastal areas.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 19-23)

The large scale pattern features a polar jet stream displaced far to the north and generally out of the picture while there is a blocky southern jet stream pattern. This keeps it somewhat unsettled here early in this period, with additional rain that may transition to rain/snow showers as it cools down and low pressure eventually pulls to the north and east. A slightly colder north to northeast flow mid to late period may result in periods of clouds and ocean effect snow/mix showers. Much lower confidence that far in advance.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 24-28)

White Christmas odds remain below climatology. Overall drier pattern here but watch for a weaker system around the middle of the period with a minor precipitation threat. No major cold.

78 thoughts on “Thursday December 14 2023 Forecast (7:16AM)”

  3. Good morning and thank you TK

    Models, for the most part, coming around to your take on the upcoming system.

    6z gfs just before Christmas, has a wonky system move NW from the ocean to clip us with some snow/sleet right, that will happen.

    Ocean temp 48.6

  8. I’m sure many saw that there were snow showers last night, especially north and west, accompanying the arrival of today’s chilly air.

    I saw on ch 5 last night in, I believe, a southern NH town that got hit by one of the snow showers, that had a stretch of road where 30 cars slid off the road. 30 !!!!!

    2. Shared a tweet from Pete…I think…late last night about north shore snow showers. I was wondering if Longshot had any

    1. Love these images. Thanks

      CAN we just get a couple of inches of snow just before Christmas? The GFS rendition would do, ONLY IF!!!!

    1. Too bad there is NO cold air around and also too bad it is
      track TOO far West. Oh well, what can we do. Only hope
      that something better comes along later.

  13. Not sure I trust any of the models for next week. I haven’t looked at the 6z GFS/Euro yet, but the 00z runs were all fairly consistent through about midday Monday, but after that diverged wildly. From the email I sent to my boss early this morning with my briefing at the end of my shift:

    “Euro has a dry slot move in Monday after, then a secondary develops and moves in for Tuesday and Wednesday with more rain, possibly ending as a mix Wednesday night. Canadian has the rain end Tuesday morning, then develops the secondary pretty far offshore, but brings in a little rain into the Cape Wednesday night. GFS has the rain end Monday evening, then has the secondary develop and bring in rain, possibly starting as snow Wednesday afternoon and night. In other words, none of them know how to handle the follow-up piece of energy diving in behind the initial storm. Oh, and while they all have a closed low somewhere over the Appalachians with the energy in a different spot, none of them had it as anything more than an open wave crossing Ontario or northern NY on the 12z run.”

      1. Wouldn’t that be something?????????????????????

        🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂
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        🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂
        🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

  20. 12X UKMET ALSO has the follow-up system

    https://massdvs.hylandcloud.com/EAST/AgencyTabViewer.aspx?layoutId=m7Wz_chzeSXhRkvO9eW_LA,,&OBToken=230abaa9-931a-4aaf-ad49-c7f870bfe3fe

    850 mb temps do NOT support snow in Eastern sections, perhaps in the West.

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmet&p=850th&rh=2023121412&fh=132&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmet&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2023121412&fh=144&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    24 hour qpf at 144 hours

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmet&p=qpf_024h-imp&rh=2023121412&fh=144&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    total 10:1 snow

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmet&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2023121412&fh=144&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

  22. So the GFS and Canadian, which both changed completely from yesterday’s 12z runs to the 00z runs, have both changed completely once again on today’s 12z runs.

    The appropriate quote is: “into the garbage chute flyboy”

  23. Question. I hear GFS woes from our local Mets also. Eric maybe more than others but others also.

    How long have models been used. And what was used by Mets before models were available.

  28. The more I read about Monday’s storm, the more confused I get. I know it’s still early but is there anything that can be nailed down? Models seem topsy turvy and rainfall and winds are all over the map. Trying to plan some activities and wondered when things will come into focus. Thanks

    1. Probably timing will change a bit, can go both ways

      Also, track is important because if it is more westerly, well dry slot more quickly and precip will probably be less, relatively speaking.

      If it tracks more towards us, then I would think there’d be higher precip totals and because of a smaller dry slot, if anything.

      And I’m also curious on intensity. If it maintains to look like 980-985 mb. That’s pretty decent.

      1. 36-48 hrs pre event so, I think we need to wait til Saturday morning to start to lean heavily on a model consensus. Hopefully they’ll have one 🙂

    2. I see no reason at this point to change anything I have written. There’s still some uncertainty with what happens after the initial thing that I have had the same forecast for now for a couple days. But my idea after that remains more that it will be shunted further east and not be that big an issue here (beyond Monday).

      But Monday itself looks like a wet day, and windy but not ferociously so.

  30. The inconsistency from run to run on the GFS (and to some degree other guidance) is pure comedy. But the GFS is the comedy headliner. 🙂

      1. None of us, meteorologists or weather enthusiasts, are looking for or expect perfection from models. I know everybody here understands what to look for and the fact that they become less reliable to further out in time you get.

        However, as I have stated previously, I know we have the technology and the ability to make these better and it is puzzling to me how some of these upgrades seem to do the opposite. I don’t know what the issue is but it seems like they are not making any haste to correct these problems. I definitely hope that changes…

  31. Checking SPC and hearing chatter …..

    Florida peninsula may have to watch for some tornados couple days from now, as they will be in the warm sector and have some favorable flow aloft to possibly increase shear.

  34. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2023121500&fh=51&r=us_se&dpdt=&mc=

    I’m sure forecasters down here are more used to stronger, but much more compact wind fields.

    These winds aren’t what while you’ll find in a hurricane, but that’s a large amount of the Gulf turned up.

    Depending on storm track and who’s got a south wind, that’s a decent surge coming on floridas west coast.

    And then look at the onshore flow approaching GA and the Carolinas.

    Big area with decent impacts.

  35. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2023121500&fh=75&r=us_ma&dpdt=&mc=

    IF the general track and intensification is accurate

    IF …..

    I think coastal NJ, NY and our south coast might have quite a storm surge coming.

    Because: the wind field and push of water on the Atlantic side is starting all the way down off the Florida coast and it’s strengthening and it has all that momentum northward.

    It’s not like a secondary is developing off Hatteras and it has only half the coast to build up. It’s starting way south of there.

            1. All models now show system tracking more to the East than on previous runs.
              to me it means more rain and wind for us
              We shall see.

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