Friday December 15 2023 Forecast (7:49AM)

79 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 15-19)

High pressure continues its domination of our weather through Saturday with fair weather and moderating temperatures. Low pressure coming out of the Gulf of Mexico will accelerate north northeastward, spreading clouds in on Sunday followed by a bout of rain and wind Sunday night and Monday, before it departs Monday night. Tuesday, upper level low pressure will still be over us but colder air will have returned so there can be some rain and snow showers, but for the most part it looks drier and chilly again at that time. More details about rainfall amounts and wind for the upcoming storm in the next update.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 42-49. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 23-30. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 44-51. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 27-34. Wind W under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 47-54. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain arrives. Lows 40-47. Wind SE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially coastal areas.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely. Highs 48-55. Wind SE-S 15-25 MPH, higher gusts especially coastal areas.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with additional rain showers and a possible thunderstorm early, then variably cloudy. Lows 37-44. Wind SW-W 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain and snow showers. Highs 38-45. Wind W-NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 20-24)

Trend is for mainly dry weather with low pressure offshore and high pressure to the west, with a generally north to northwest flow of seasonably chilly weather. A disturbance somewhere in there may cause a few snow/mix showers.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 25-29)

White Christmas odds remain below climatology. Pattern get more active later in the period with higher odds for precipitation.

79 thoughts on “Friday December 15 2023 Forecast (7:49AM)”

    1. Thanks JpDave !

      If a low is now going to come into Long Island, in the 970s mb’s, well, that 3ft might be conservative.

      Might be closer to 4 to 4.5 ft

      I’m curious to see, probably in another 36 hrs or so, the first storm surge advisories and what the storm surge models are projecting.

  5. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Latest model runs tend to track the storm more East then
    previous runs. I think it means potentially more rain and wind for us. We shall see.

    Models generally 1.5-3 inches across our area. A decent rain event to be sure, but How Much will actually fall?

  9. Ocean temperature at 48.2

    Slowly getting there, but the weather over the next few days isn’t going to help.

  10. We had a lull in the heavy rain events, from around the 8th of October through Thanksgiving. But we’re back to some pretty prolific rain events again. I fully realize it’s a different pattern. But it’s still producing copious amounts of rain periodically. Even if Boston `only’ gets 1.5 or 2 inches of rain on Sunday/Monday, that’s a lot in my book, particularly given how many such events we’ve had since June. During the summer months it seemed to happen every 4 or 5 days.

    1. Yep. And I seem to recall the fear once winter arrived that it would either stop precipitating or it would be rain rather than snow

  13. Given model inconsistency across the board yesterday, I fully suspect we’re not looking at a final track and intensity on guidance.

    For one thing, I am nearly certain the low strength is being over forecast. That’s fairly typical at this range.

    1. None-the-less, it is fun and interesting watching it all unfold.

      I’d be most interested to see the final result.

      To me, whatever shape it is in, it moves through and is out of here. NO stinken follow-up system. 🙂

      1. Indeed. Actually I think following run to run is fun from an entertainment viewpoint and important from a meteorology view point. The latter helps identify model “issues”. And we know how many of those there can be.

  14. Rain from the next system will extend northward through Labrador. Needless to say, rain in December isn’t common in Labrador City.

    1. After the rain departs up there it does get cold, but not nearly as cold as is usually the case in mid to late December. There just isn’t much real cold, even in that part of Canada. Keep in mind, the average high in December is 7F (-14C) and average low -8F (-22C). The long-range forecast going through early January shows nothing below average and practically all temps above average.

    1. Yes. I think so.

      It’s going to do a number on the ski areas, just in time for Christmas.

      While I liked yesterday a lot and we’ve had some nice days, I’m not liking the pattern of mostly extended autumn. Nothing we can do about it. The law of averages suggests that we’re due for a cold and snowy December at some point this decade.

      1. When I say “a number” I mean it in a negative way. 40s at summits and 50s in the valley with heavy rain is a recipe for melt, glop and poor ski conditions for the foreseeable future.

  19. While I like Jeremy Reiner I think he was forced by management to have as a headline for yesterday’s weather just the word cold with an exclamation point. COLD!

    Yesterday was NOT cold with an exclamation point. Maybe in Virginia, but not here.

    December 1980, yes, Bruce S and others could have used a bolded and capitalized COLD with several exclamation points. But this year and so many recent years we just haven’t had particularly cold weather in December at all.

    1. How true. And I agree, it was NOT cold yesterday. Cooler, but
      NOT cold. It got to 35 here. A bit of chill in the air compared to recent weather, but NOT cold.

    2. I suspect it may have made a difference where you weee. I sat outside for a short while and it was quite cold with a cool wind. I headed to the center and didn’t last long outside by Mac’s tree. And I don’t mind cold. Maybe temp was cooler here. We didn’t get above 33. And it will be colder for sure. I was just surprised how short a period I could sit out

  24. Vicki, I’m so glad you have a tree to commemorate Mac.

    A friend of mine has a tree in the Public Garden to commemorate his brother and sister who died of cancer in their early 50s. Every year we do something `illegal’ by connecting our own set of lights to the city’s lights in the Public Garden and Commonwealth Avenue. We put our lights on the tree. We did this the other day.

  27. Matt, I think you are heading home today. Wishing you safe travels and a wonderful time spent with your family.

  28. Matt, I think you are heading home today. Wishing you safe travels and a wonderful time spent with your family.

  29. Seasonal respiratory illnesses are highly prevalent at the moment. While it’s not yet an unprecedented surge it could very well turn out to be soon as we have a trifecta of RSV, Covid-19 and influenza with mycoplasma (walking pneumonia, which can take a turn for the worse in certain people) impacting some as a secondary infection.

    1. My son in law just started antibiotics for strep. He’s tested negative for Covid four days so doesn’t appear to be that.

      2. It will. This is the energy that the guidance was totally confused what to do with. SAK & I both referenced this issue yesterday (and the day before). Run after run there was just wild inconsistency. Finally, today we’re getting some general agreement that the 2nd low is there, not impressive, and doesn’t turn into a big wheel in the atmosphere throwing moisture back at us for days. Eventually there will probably be a low to our east, but probably too far out there to have much impact. More confident of the solution today, but not enough to say it’s a lock yet.

  33. I walked through Copley Square today and noticed that no wreaths were hung up on the outside of the BPL yet. If anything, some years they stay up until MLK weekend.

      1. Oh well. Maybe they’ll put them up over the weekend. I can’t recall any Christmas that they weren’t hung, even during sad years.

        1. Good to see you Philip. I also think I heard no Xmas tree was not going up somewhere, maybe down town crossing .

  35. Maybe it’s wishful thinking but it seems a more western path is now likely for Monday’s storm. Rain totals have been trimmed in eastern Mass to the 1-2” range. Is sentiment fairly strong that the final changes have been made? How much of a concern are gusty winds? Thanks.

    1. I think I saw Eric fisher write that wind will be more impactful in this event than last week.

      Of course, that’s relative to location.

      I continue to be worried about a south coast storm surge.

      If I recall, you are in natick. So, you certainly won’t have the strongest winds, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s breezy/fairly windy for several hours even in natick.

  38. I think, sometimes, when the models in the mid range forecast a strong storm, one gets to 48 hrs out and we start to see the projected pressures come up a little, it won’t be quite as strong.

    That’s not happening on the 12z stuff so far. The comparative pressures are similar if not a mb or so lower.

    And to see what is in the gulf on satellite and this thing has other pieces of energy to become involved.

    This is quite a system headed this way.

    1. The new Hrrr has it get dowm
      to 964.

      12z definitely lower pressure.

      NWS has a high wind watch up.

      some models show surface winds sustained at over 30 mph near the coast
      and sustained 40-50 mph just off coast.

      That is some serious wind. add gusts to that. wow!

  39. 12-15z Monday morning, as it stands now, looks really impacted.

    I’m sure the impact extends a few hrs either side of these times.

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