Monday December 18 2023 Forecast (7:37AM)

249 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 18-22)

A stormy Monday starts this week before Christmas. A well-advertised storm system will move up from the south, with the center of low pressure basically traveling up the Connecticut River Valley during this afternoon. Steadiest rain this morning becomes more showery this afternoon with a general 1 to 3 inch rainfall for the region. Strongest wind gusts from the southeast and south will be around through early afternoon before the wind shifts to the southwest and, while still strong and gusty, the top gusts should be behind us. Coastal flooding will be minor to moderate around the high tide time at midday, most notable along the South Coast. As the storm moves away, we stay breezy into tonight, but dry weather returns. Overnight temperatures should stay above freezing so I’m not concerned about any freezing of leftover puddles and surfaces that don’t dry out quickly. Tuesday, we’ll have upper level low pressure crossing the region, with cooler weather and a chance of a few rain and snow showers, but no big deal. The weather Wednesday through Friday will be governed by high pressure with dry and seasonably chilly weather. A blocking pattern will result in low pressure sitting offshore to our east, but indications are that other than the wind turning more northeast Thursday and/or Friday, and some coastal cloud potential, that the system will not have any significant impact on our weather.

TODAY: Overcast through midday with rain, heavy at times, and a slight chance of thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy with additional rain showers during the afternoon but breaks of sun are also possible. Highs 57-64. Wind SE 15-35 MPH with gusts above 40 MPH inland and above 50 MPH coastal areas, shifting to S.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 34-41. Wind SW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers except mix/snow showers possible in some higher elevations. Highs 38-45. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind WNW 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 37-44. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 21-28. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 36-43. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 21-28. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 23-27)

Blocking breaks down and a more zonal flow takes over the pattern. Disturbance may bring a few rain and snow showers on December 23. High pressure brings fair, milder weather for Christmas Eve / Christmas Day. Watching for a more significant precipitation event, probably rain, later in the period as low pressure approaches from the southwest.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 28 – JANUARY 1)

Storm system may be nearby early in the period then quieter again. No major cold.

249 thoughts on “Monday December 18 2023 Forecast (7:37AM)”

  7. Curious about precipitation totals for 2023. On the ranking in recorded weather/climate history where will 2023 stand?

      2. HTE.
        It was sudden. The correlation is clear now.
        You don’t get a sudden global temperature spike either during longer term warming.

    2. As of midnight, here are the rankings for climate sites around here:

      Boston 35th
      Blue Hill 25th
      Worcester 6th
      Providence 12th
      Hartford 8th
      Concord 19th

      I don’t have Lowell data available at the moment, I’m behind on compiling it.

  8. Todays storm isn’t probably top 20 wind wise, but it’s going to be a nice example on the south coast and how a decent surge can also occur because of fetch and momentum. This wind field and accompanying surge was born so far south of us and has had a lot of distance to maintain or even grow a bit.

  9. Thanks TK.

    Pretty wild here in Coventry this morning with heavy wind blown rain pelting the windows. Definitely worse than last week’s storm. 30% of the town is without power including the intermediate school which has the day off. The rest of the schools are open but there was a lot of running water, ponding, and branches down on the roads when I dropped the kids off earlier.

    We are up to 2.15” of rain and 61F.

  10. Thanks Tk . Wind is absolutely cranking here in the longwood medical area , cranking !!! Wife just texted wind is definitely cranking as well & power has gone out once & restored . I’m suspecting problems today if this goes most of the day .

  11. Matt Noyes tweet:

    As of just past 8:30am, 95% of Pepperell is reported to be without power, among the 83K+ customers without power in MA. Add in ~30K in NH, ~20K in ME, ~7K in VT & ~82K in CT and New England outages stand at approximately 222,000 customers.

  14. Good morning and thank you TK.

    I must say, so far I am NOT impressed at all.

    Highest gust I have seen at Logan so far has be 48 mph. Big
    WOOF!

    Looking out the window, I have seen windier days with a nice SW wind on a Summer’s day.

    If it’s supposed to be windy, then let it be windy. 🙂

    I KNOW it varies from location to location. But just saying.

    1. I continue to watch obs. NOTHING showing up just yet.
      Are those winds at the surface? OR at some elevation above the surface?

  17. Wouldn’t you know it.
    With all my bitching about lack of wind. Just got word
    that I could NOT VPN into my office due to power outage
    at the office. GO FIGURE!!!!

    Watch me lose power here just for KARMA sake. 🙂

    At least my phone is fully charged. 🙂

    Pretty CRAPPY day so far!!!!

    HEY there is a BIIIG WIND GUST HERE!!!!

  20. I gotta admit, it is a lot windier than I thought it would be. It’s relentless out there. Not just a big gust here and there in between lulls of calm. No idea if the warning criteria will verify, but I’m impressed

  21. Snow plow just went by with the blade down, lol. DPW is driving around clearing all the branches and debris on the roads.

  24. Thank TK

    Absolutely wild. I was up from wind pounding house 2:30 till maybe 7:30. Wind took both planters and grinch down blocking front door. SIL just righted them and they are down again.

    Areas of sutton out. Our power went off and on. The ground is so soggy it can’t hold the trees. No surprise there. I was surprised there were not more outages last storm.

    Tom. How is splashover?

        1. I just mentioned to Scott that we are used to high winds here. But this was crazy. Sounded as if a jet plane was flying through the trees on hill behind house

          Back yard is worse than front.

  25. More wind, less rain (overall, still some good totals) … No surprises, as previously stated.

    Wind behaving exactly as expected.

    1. Glad it was brief and you are ok. And it sure is. We are used to wind here …I mention that on here often…but this was impressive. I saw a post from Mark saying it might get worse before better. I hope not.

    1. Of course, there are many location in between the observation sites, so some locations could have experienced higher gusts. 🙂

  29. Logan has gusted to 54 mph. Highest I have seen for them
    so far. Of course I am not looking all of the time and the MEso site updated every 5 minutes or so. 🙂

  30. Falmouth gusting to 63 mph

    Logan and Martha’s Vineyard to 54 mph

    Block Island to 55 mph

    This is off of that great ob link SAK put on here a long while ago.

  31. My desk is right next to a window and every stinken time
    I look out I am simply NOT impressed. I see that it is windy,
    BUT NOTHING unusual at all. It’s just not. I am not being
    Mr. negative, it is just simply NOT that windy here.

    Still paint me as UNIMPRESSED!

    1. Ok, I just witnessed a decent wind gust, probably the strongest
      I have seen in a long time. I would estimate 45-50 mph, but that
      is just my best guess.

    2. It wouldn’t be any other way, JpDave !

      🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

      Katrina, EF5, 9.0 on the richter scale, 50+ inches of snow in a storm, 110F + heat, -20F below air temp …….. now, we’re talking.

  34. Not sure if we are getting what Mark and Scott have mentioned but yikes. Wind is crazier both shaking house and whistling

  36. Lost power for a second time at home in pembroke , it’s not coming quickly back on as the first time . Seeing scattered reports of trees down in the area as well

  37. I once witnessed stronger winds here after a frontal passage with NW winds so strong it blew our Storm door right off. We are still not at that level of wind.

  39. Across the street from the front of the school, a live wire came down and there was a brief brush fire.

    All of a sudden, we heard the kids from the room facing the front saying, look at the fire !

    Our resource officer is out there calling it in.

    The power briefly surged in the school.

    2. I’m at work Tom & getting reports from my wife . Looking like a lot Is starting to happen in the area with trees & wires down & outages. If this goes till say 4 we have issues

    1. Ok. I am ready to send everything we have to you, JPD. Just has sustained at 13 with gust to 33. Son (RI) and daughter (Uxbridge) without power. Daughters street closed on one end.

      I am surprised that I don’t see school closures. But a lot close using email now.

  44. 100-200 yds to the left of the down wire, a generator went.

    Bright pop twice before it calmed down.

    Road in front of school is currently shut down.

      1. Yes.

        It surged. But, we’re good.

        Which is good, because we project everything and the kids use their chrome books a lot.

        Jokingly, we’ll be paralyzed in learning without power.

  45. WOWA!!!

    Just saw wind gust to 67 mph at Norwood!!!!

    Ace, you see anything like that as you are likely the nearest other than Arod, who is absent at the moment. 🙂

  46. Thank you TK!

    Definitely some wild wind down this way. The high school principal just sent out a message that the school has lost power several times but the generator is kicking in. Just hope the students that have to drive home are safe.

    1. It is comforting that schools now have the email system. Praying all kids and staff get home safely. Hopefully the worst will be over.

  52. OK, I RELENT!!!

    With the last few gusts, I am officially IMPRESSED!
    Last one shook the house and I thought a tree was going to be uplifted as the wind swirled UPWARD! WOW!!!!

  55. Just watching the trees. They are pretty resilient when up against this wind. It’s like just a minor annoyance to them. 🙂

  56. A pretty impressive line of convection is rapidly making its
    way East and North and should be in the city certainly within the hour. It will be interesting to see what gusts are produced by
    that.

    Looks like it has just past Sutton. Any word?

  58. Latest 15Z HRRR still has a wind gust of 70 KNOTS
    OR 80 mph down around the Taunton area at 16Z. Hm that was
    18 minutes ago. See anything like that Capt?

  61. Mrs. Fantastic, who is home, texted me and said that it was wild in Taunton. We have already lost a tree the backyard and the power has gone on and off a couple of times.

    Here in Middleboro, the trees are whipping around, but the power has stayed on at the school as far as I know.

  63. Logan Airport, at last check, was at a ground stop.
    Green Airport was still operating. I am headed there in about an hour to pick up my bro. His flight is still listed as arriving on-time at 2:09!

  64. My Son works in East Boston near the airport and says it is absolutely WILD over there. He saw a report of
    a wind gust to 68 MPH.

    I must have missed that one as I am actually trying to do “some” work. 🙂

    1. Yup, as expected. The convection has passed you.

      It will pick up again, But NOT nearly as strong as it was previously, but it will get windy again.

  70. Lashing rain and very heavy wind gusts. I’m in a bunker – my euphemistically named garden level home – so I don’t get impacted all that much by wind. But I do hear the swirling.

    1. Well, it passed through here. Like the middle of the night, with big wind and rain that resembled fog. Now it’s quiet, but I’ve been hearing sirens, likely from route 2. Power has stayed on, though.

  76. Incredible rainfall rates right now in the middle of that line but dead calm wind. The biggest gust came right before it. This should push me to close to 3.50” for the event

    1. Noticed that the biggest gust here was just before it as well.
      Interesting.
      I see the winds backing off at Norwood already.

  79. Thanks, TK.

    Thundered here in Sudbury around 9:00 p.m. last night according to husband but I was asleep and didn’t hear it. But this morning, we have had some pretty good gusts approx. 55 -60 mph w/occasional torrents of rain. Looked at radar awhile ago and there is this strip of yellow moving south to north and is over us. Looks like the edge of it is over southern CT. My sister in Framingham has had no lights since very early this morning. Here the lights have been flickering. I would call it an impressive storm; depending on where you are. I tried to imagine if it was snow . . .

  80. And now I am in the office since losing power at home. It was not a fun ride from Halifax to Plymouth. And to add insult to injury, Dunkin Donuts lost power JUST as I got to the window to pay so they could not process my payment. Good thing there is one on every corner. 🙂

  85. Wind has cut down here, too. And rain has too. Almost – looks a bit brighter, too. Kind of weird looking sky. Ooops! Wind just kicked up a bit again. But not too bad.

  87. We’ve been getting blasted in Amesbury for many hours. How strong are the winds…picked up our Weber grill and tossed it around 15 feet. Have a pic, but can’t figure out how to post it here. Really strong and sustained winds continue.

  88. Yes, the kids got to school safe today.

    I’m sure we’ll get them home safely.

    There’s definitely been distractions from learning today with flashes from exploding transformers, electricity flashing on and off. 4 of our 5 elementary schools are in the dark.

    This is full Monday morning quarterback, but a lot of superintendents didn’t believe the forecast today, I guess, cause this impact was thrown out there. Poor job on their part. This is way more impactful than 70% of snow days I have had off.

    On the bright side, June 11th is still alive and well as school day 180.

      2. They can’t go up until the winds calm down so unfortunately for our area may not be until later tonight . I believe temps will be dropping down to the 40s

            1. They are all well schooled on the safety factor. My nephew works for verizon and has been out a couple of times today. My brother worked with them for decades.

  89. The bridge over Padanaram Harbor in South Dartmouth closed as water is pouring over it at high tide. Beaches are taking a beating here along Buzzards Bay – which pretty much looks like the Atlantic Ocean right now at high tide

  90. Wind is mostly gone. Rain is now just light. Brightened up outside on this April-like day.

    It’s going to be an all rain event in Western Labrador!

    You have to go to Schefferville, Northern Quebec, to see the rain/snow line (changing to all snow overnight).

    While this happens on occasion, it’s rare in mid to late December.

  93. Interesting post from sutton pd earlier. They asked people to just stay home. The town has trees and wires down throughout . And they sure didn’t seem to agree with school being open. Sutton schools have had a history of that at least since we have been here .

    2. Belmont PD also asked people to stay home. It has its own light department and has restored a few areas. But needs a crane to move a tree across the road.

  96. “Over the air” tv reception is awful during these extreme wind events. Moving the antenna/antennas around has very little effect.

  97. I have a mix of brighter skies and some rain. Thinking we could get another shot of wind and heavier rain.

  98. My son at UMass Lowell told me that parts of the campus have no power. Today is the first day of finals, so there is a lot of scrambling and rescheduling going on.

    So far, my son is not affected.

  102. I made it to Green Airport in record time and my brother’s flight is early!!! How do you figure??? Hahaha!

    We had an early dismissal at 12:15 because of no power at the elementary schools!

  106. I’ve got light to moderate rainfall and winds picking up a little again. I think on the north shore, there is an hour and a half to go.

  107. Safe to say we’re not in a drought.

    Friend of mine is purchasing a kayak today near the Adirondacks (there was a special sale) and bringing it back with her (strapped onto the car, of course). I told her to wait until late this afternoon to leave from Albany (where she stayed this weekend) to avoid the worst of the wind and rain.

  109. The atmosphere, as a whole, with additional Tonga water vapor still available and extra moisture available from a healthy El Nino …….

    If some cold air can be involved, it shouldn’t surprise anyone if later in the winter, a 30-40+ inch snowfall in one event, gets dropped somewhere in the Northeast or mid-Atlantic.

    1. Sadly for snow lovers, the only way to get that much moisture was to be on the warm side of both systems.

      Being on the cold side of both combined, we’d probably have gotten under a foot total, but it still would have been better for snow lovers than what’s out there now. 🙂

  111. Lots of tree damage around here, but most of it is relatively minor. A couple larger trees have come down in the area, however. And parts of Woburn have no power. We here on the hill have been lucky and have kept ours so far. The big wind is over. We’ll get a secondary surge of southwest wind as the low pulls north of the region in a couple hours (early evening) but it won’t be as strong as what occurred earlier.

  112. MJO update …

    You may recall that previously I mentioned one of the factors against a snow event here in SNE was the MJO, being in unfavorable phases 3, 4, 5, and 6. Phase 7 is slightly better but not ideal, though it does tend to be better earlier in the season than later in the season. Unfortunately, a short trip through 7 occurred during a dry stretch of weather, so there was no shot.

    Now, MJO is technically moving into phase 8 and will travel through it and phase 1 over the next handful of days, but as you may recall, I said that the MJO itself would be weak in terms of its influence … weak to non existent, otherwise known as “in the circle” on the phase diagram. The MJO does pick up a bit of influence next week, just as it enters phase 2. Phase 2 is a decent phase for snow chances, but that tends to be more the case during mid to late winter than early in the season, so again the MJO will be of little to no help in getting the right pattern for a snowstorm here in SNE.

    The above said, there is a shot of “something” that may be “not just rain” in the December 26-29 window. No that doesn’t mean a 4-day winter storm. It means keep an eye on that window of time for a potential threat of some kind that we can bring into focus in the usual meteorological non-hype way, as is proper when giving information. 🙂

    More to come on that…

  113. Some of the videos of streams/rivers up in northern New England are not far from biblical.

    Eric F just posted one.

    Guess 4+ inches of rain and instant snow melt will do that.

  115. I just realized that is Jackson falls. My brother and dad and I fished that area every summer for too many summers to count

    1. And another river we fished regularly. I hate this is happening but am smiling at memories. If that makes sense

  118. We had 3.5″ in Lunenburg. Now the sky is almost completely clear.

    My said reported still no power in Lowell.

    2. I’m hearing rumors not getting it back until 12/21 as I guess there is a massive tree down in my neighborhood. Trying to see buf there are detours around it as that entrance to the hood is closed

      1. No, I don’t believe so. But I could be wrong. It’s the one that the Icelandic authorities believed was about to erupt and they subsequently evacuated the town of Grindavik (which may be destroyed by the eruption).

  124. Daughter in uxbridge was told 12/21. Lots of folks in surrounding tools the same. Am hoping that is just the standard response. I know others here are told 12/21. Worrisome thing is nat grid told daughter she has power and they are not on the map

    1. What is with 12/21 date as that’s what we are hearing here in pembroke . Today is Monday so no power until Thursday . This storm was well advertised why was there not any out of state contractors called in yesterday on standby

      1. I wondered the same since it is what we are hearing here. May be a date they hope all will have power. That way at least folks can plan for the worst

          1. I do have power. And I’m ok with that. Cost of food is too high for me to wish in anyone. It’s daughter in uxbridge who doesn’t have power.

  127. Philip, I seem to recall you work at one of the art facilites in Boston. Mass Art is reporting a partial collapse

    1. Yes, I saw that on the news. I no longer work there though. According to the news report, a number of people could have been seriously hurt if not dead had the collapse occurred 30 seconds sooner including the mailman (a nice guy btw) delivering mail on his route to one of the main buildings on campus.

      It would seem that this storm brought a lot more destruction than even the tv Mets imagined.

  128. Never in 25 years living at this house in JP have I seen this many huge branches down in our driveway. Driving to the dentist at 12 noon was pure insanity with the massive trees down all over the VFW parkway and surrounding area. This was by the far the worst damage we’ve seen since I moved to Boston in 1995.

  129. The road to Sunday River completely washed out. Not sure what it’s going to take for people to open their eyes and realize what’s going on here.

  130. I feel for the ski resorts, just decimated prior to
    Xmas week. Who knows how many more years they have skiing in the East during December.

    1. I’ve been thinking and saying all of this. My son said last night that he is afraid we will never wake up to the damage we have done.

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