Tuesday December 19 2023 Forecast (7:28AM)

81 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 19-23)

Upper level low pressure may produce a couple rain and snow showers today as it swings through the region from west to east. A northerly air flow between high pressure to the west and low pressure off the coast will bring fair and seasonably chilly weather Wednesday through Friday. Another disturbance moves into the region on Saturday and may produce some insignificant light snow, except snow or rain near the South Coast.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers except mix/snow showers possible in some higher elevations. Highs 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind WNW 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 21-28. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 36-43. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 21-28. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 20-27. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. A touch of light snow and rain possible. Highs 35-42. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 24-28)

Christmas Eve / Christmas Day feature fair, milder weather with high pressure in control. Watch for a frontal boundary and a rain/snow shower chance December 26. Potential widespread precipitation event later in the period from low pressure associated with the subtropical jet stream.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 29 – JANUARY 2)

Trend back to mainly dry weather at least through mid period. No major cold.

81 thoughts on “Tuesday December 19 2023 Forecast (7:28AM)”

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.
    Pretty wild yesterday for a couple of hours. Quite a bit of damage reported and some not far from my location.
    We escaped unscathed here.

    so now we have to look towards January for any legitimate snow chances, IF them.

    Ocean temo: 47.5

  3. Thanks TK.

    Sadly there is a trail of destruction. I hope most without power had theirs restored overnight. My daughter is still without. Sue? SSK?

  7. Thank you TK.

    We are still without power. Sent the turkey I had in the freezer to my mom’s so at least we saved part of Christmas dinner. 🙂 My senior is enjoying have a “snow” day that he doesn’t have to make up. Have to look at the bright side of things.

    1. Dunks couldn’t GIVE you your coffee or ask you to at least pay the next time, Sue? I mean, it was during the height of a major storm and emergency!!!!

      Yes, my seniors are mad there are no days off here yet they don’t have to make up!

      I am a senior, but not the Class of 2024. 🙂

      1. That was my thought also Captain about Dunks! It is the one I get my coffee every darn morning so you would have thought they could have worked something out. 🙂

  8. “Snow day” here in Sharon as well. 3 of the 5 schools in town are without power and many roads still impassable. I know it was a bad storm, but that’s what we get living in a wannabe rural town that’s afraid to trim or remove trees. We luckily have power and internet but many do not.

  9. My daughter had a nightmare ride home from her teaching job in Medfield to her home in Hopkinton. Downed trees and flooding in Medfield, Dover and Millis, Holliston and Hopkinton. Rt. 27 was totally shut down and her school lost power 5 times, but they did NOT close school. It would take a nuclear bomb for Medfield to close school.

    Pretty impressive event.

    There were some BIG trees downed on the VFW Parkway in West Roxobury, not far from my location. One tree trashed a home. Pretty freightening.

    I was out and about yesterday after the storm and I went to pick up a prescription in Roslindale and the CVS was shut down due to a power outage. Other than the power outage, I witnessed nothing out of the ordinary was I was out. 🙂

    1. Glad she got home safely. SIL worked in Burlington and came home that way. From the time he got off 495 to uxbridge he said it wss like a war zone. DIL said same going to and from Lincoln RI to Franklin MA

      1. Thank you. It was pretty bad yesterday for sure!
        Happy all your family members made it home safely.

        When one looks out the window and sees nothing, it is easy to minimize things until one ventures out and sees what’s really happened.

        This wind event did NOT under achieve. If anything, it over achieved.

    1. I do also. I follow Belmont on FB and it wss a mess with power outages in many locations. It has a phenomenal light department.

      Oddly, I don’t remember losing power growing up. If we did it was very rare.

      1. I don’t remember that either from when we rented there. Yes, it’s still amazing to me that they have their own light department! And it works!

  13. Son’s house is on the Blackstone river canal in Lincoln RI. The river is a mess. He said it came up to their fire pit which is still a distance from their house. His neighbor has been there 30 years and said he has never seen this.

    Ski areas are now snowless for Christmas vacation week. We skied North Conway from the time I was two until I graduated high school. 1951-1967. Maybe a bit past that. With one exception, we were absolutely guaranteed snow. I remember that exception because we were at the eastern slope inn and several teens and I spent the time doing jigsaw puzzles in the lobby. It was a blast.

    Hadi, I saw your comments at the end of yesterday’s blog. As sad as losing power is, there is a whole lot more sad about this than loss of power.

  14. Had this been snow, there would have been far fewer power outages, even if had been a very WET snow. Not to mention a true “snow” day for teachers and students.

    1. There “may” be a touch more atop Killington Peak, but what does that matter. They were wiped out, save for the trails that
      had copious machine snow.

  16. Oldest said they have not had this many power outages in the valley since her move here in early 2000’s which explains the 12/21 standard reply. Power companies are clearly overwhelmed.

    And on a positive note, it is a lovely day to get out and right any damage from yesterday.

    1. Thanks, TK. The damage from fallen trees and also flooding has been horrible. And just before Christmas, too. At least the weather is good enough for clean-up.

    2. So swollen. 🙁

      My daughter showed me photos of west Hill Dam. TK I remember your being there not long ago. Even with control, it is over its banks everywhere. The same Blackstone river canal that goes by my son’s house also goes through Uxbridge. It is also swollen. Nothing like the disaster in northern NE but still Impressive

  19. Joshua – I have a medical question to ask you. I know you are not a doctor but maybe you might know? Back in the spring of 2019 I developed a weird infection w/many weird symptoms. Vasculitis of the legs; swollen lymph nodes; on and off fever; loss of taste and other things. The drs. took many blood tests; even a cancer dr. and by the late summer they concluded I had 2 infections that were gone. Yes, the symptoms went away. But they didn’t know what I had. Now a lot of my drs. said I might have had pre-covid. I weighed 94 lbs. just before I got sick and my weight stayed the same. 2 wks. after all had disappeared my weight took a sudden drop to 78 lbs. After all these yrs., no matter how much I eat, I can’t put on the weight. I have been to nutritionists and they don’t take my insurance or talked to me briefly and said eat more protein, which I do. Could pre-covid or covid cause weight loss for so long? I have had cat scans, etc. and nothing wrong. Having ultra-sound of stomach in a few wks. Sorry for the long post.

  20. Seeing now, in pictures and from JpDave’s webcam above the loss of snow up in the mountains.

    They got talked a lot about on the west coast, but that was an east coast atmospheric river.

    Because the low developed SO FAR south in the central gulf, it literally took air from the Gulf and the deep tropics and sent it through northern New England. Similar to when air from Hawaii and the central South Pacific gets sent all the way to California.

    Sometimes Boston and southern New England warm sector, but often, it’s held at bay somewhere south of the northern mountains.

    Not in this case. Pure tropical air for hours upon end with dps near 60F to southern Canada for hours on end.

    Devastating weather outcome for the ski industry. Let’s hope later winter vacations will have more snow available to them.

  21. Thank you Tom and Vicki. It’s been a long 4 yrs. w/many drs. who just shake their heads or just ignore it. Really. I am small – only 4’9″ but still. I have been under a lot of stress w/husband not well but still, I do eat. <3

        1. I use the red heart in my iPad emoji keyboard.

          Sending love right back to you. I’m interested in Joshua’s response. In spring 2019 I was as sick as I had been in a very long time. I ever darned Covid symptom. It took a while to get my taste and smell back. And I had lasting symptoms that were not as severe as yours but that no doctor could pinpoint a cause for. They still reappear but not as frequently. My pcp said he knows Covid was supposedly not around then but …….

          1. Ironically, I think my husband and me caught it when we were in ER in Framingham when I had a kidney stone attack. 3 days later we both had mild sore throats – felt like allergy. Then Marc developed bronchitis that lasted 2 wks. and just went away. I never had a cough, just a slight runny nose. Then I got the Vasculitis ( big hives on legs that affect blood vessels and that eventually went on and then everything else came into play. No one ever mentioned I might have Covid. Just some 2 viruses. It wasn’t until this past year that some of my doctors believe I had pre-covid. The only symptom I have is weight loss. Still planning a Christmas dinner. Sister and her husband coming over. Planning for turkey and all the fixings. Thanksgiving I ate good and I am eating pretty good now. I don’t like being so thin. But have to watch for Diabetes as it runs in my family and Marc and my sister have it. I love gingerbread w/whipped cream but I may opt for gingerbread men. Fun to make and eat.

  23. Just got power back . Still lots in town without . Hundreds of trees came down in town according to Emergency management & many blocking roads

      2. Insurance covers food with no deductible I believe but did you check your freezer…..it may last up to 48 hours if not opened. And I maybe check on fridge for a lot of,the food.

        1. Was not a ton in the fridge lol . Frozen cheese pizza she kept except ones with meat . Not enough to claim which is good

    1. yes, but unless we have an infusion
      of arctic air, not much hope for snow in that set up. Or at least some pretty cold air for it to bump into…

      1. Agreed.

        Something not on the models will have to change in Canada to offer some build of cold air.

        Preceeding this possible event looks like torch city in the central US, compared to late Dec averages.

        1. I am really beginning to get bummed out.
          record high in Boston yesterday. I was out running errands yesterday in a short sleeve jersey it was so warm and I was comfortable.

          Today’s errands necessitated a mere sweatshirt is all.
          Next day post storm and it made it to 48 here. Geez where the bleep is Winter. And do NOT dare tell me it’s not Winter yet. The Solstice is in 2 days anyway! AS far as I am concerned it is SUPPOSED to be WINTER now!!!

          1. Sure, a few days of a little bit colder weather and then RIGHT back to the warmer weather!!!!

            ARGH(@!*#*()!@*#)(*!@)(#*!)@(#*)(!*@#)(!*@)#(*!)(@#*)(

          2. Oh absolutely !

            Our side of the hemisphere is ridiculously lacking in chill this close to the solstice.

            How often was international falls, mn 20 to 30F below when we were kids ?

            Now, not so much.

  25. Had a thought …..

    I think during el nino’s, northern areas have been susceptible to ice storms, some extremely impactful for days and days afterwards.

    Mild storm tracks, but just enough of a high to the north to hold in a shallow, chilly enough airmass for freezing rain up north.

    Hope the 28th/29th doesn’t trend that way cause there is already a hint of it.

  27. Correct me if I am wrong, but my Worcester weather radio is calling for rain nxt. Tues. At least it will be nice on Christmas Day – but really. Where is the snow? I bet we get snow in April, the weather is so crazy!

    1. This type of El Nino with MJO in unfavorable phases usually leads to a pretty snowless December. That’s what we got ourselves this time!

  28. Well this should be the 6th “no white Christmas” in a row for Boston, but only half as long as the 12 green Christmases in a row 1981 through 1992! … How did the city snow lovers ever survive that! 😉

    You know what the cure for this might be? An ENSO neutral entrance to winter. 2024? 🙂

      1. Time will tell. But the odds of a stretch as long as the one in the 1980s to early 90s are very low.

        I saw somebody post on social media that Boston’s actual average snowfall should be lowered to 17 inches. No. It went UP with the last 30-year climatology update. Numbers don’t lie. The notion that the average snowfall dropped from 43 to 17 is insane. It went up to 49. We just left the snowiest 30-year period in our observed history. We were bound to have a handful of lean years in there. It happened in the 1950s. It happened in the 1980s. In other words, IT HAPPENS. #facts

        1. I don’t recall a lot of white Christmases here. North Conway was a given. Although I do recall 1992…I think….or was it 1991 with a major snow. For all I know it could have melted before christmas. Oddly, I’ve never thought much about a white Christmas. I’m surprised to realize that. Maybe because we headed north the day after.

            1. I do get that when it comes to infrastructure, etc. It’s the normal for that period and we need to adjust to the new normal…btw I also dislike that term. But comparing just the last 30 years climatologically is only using data from the warming period. In my view, It just cannot show the true picture of how we have warmed. I’m very happy to hear how I’m incorrect.

              To me, If there is an average from the past 30 years, we need to look further. What does the last 60 show? The last 90? Or the segments of 30year time in each.

              This to me shows the entire picture. Not just the last 30 years

              https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-global-temperature

  30. Commenting on a few things I’ve read on here this evening:

    1. The peak wind at Fenway. They have 2 anemometers, one on top of the press box, and one on top of the light stanchion in left field. Either way, they are elevated, so the peak wind shouldn’t be too much of a surprise.

    2. The Merrimack crested at 53.16 feet in Lowell this evening. Flood stage is 52 feet. This is the 1st time the Merrimack reached flood stage since 2010, and is the 18th highest crest on record, dating back to 1852. In the past 171 years, the river has reached flood stage 34 times now, or once every 5 years on average.

    3. 30 year normals are used because a lot of stations don’t have long periods of data. You need one standard to use that includes as many stations as possible. The longer the period you choose, the less stations you have available, and thus the data isn’t as useful. If you’re using 60 years for one station, but only 40 for another, you can’t really equate them, because that 20 years that the 2nd station is missing could skew the averages significantly. 30 is the world-wide standard that was set by the WMO decades ago, and they have not changed it, so that is the standard that everyone uses.

    1. With the technology we have, for all stations not to have access doesn’t make any sense to me. It’s like saying not all hospitals have access to the latest treatments so no hospitals should use them. That said, I really not looking for a reason why. I’m trying to figure how anything can be accurate if we use only a selected part of information we have rather than the whole.

      I do understand how we need to adapt to more recent weather changes in some instances as i mentioned previously. When it comes to addressing climate change as well as simply seeing the entire picture,, it seems to me as if it’s a convenient way to say…..oh, it’s not that bad. We do the same with covid.

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