Wednesday December 20 2023 Forecast (6:50AM)

63 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 20-24)

A northerly air flow between high pressure to the west and low pressure off the coast will bring fair and seasonably chilly weather through Friday. A weak disturbance will bring more clouds and perhaps a touch of very light precipitation Saturday, before high pressure takes over for a dry and slightly milder Christmas Eve. This pattern is very favorable for pre-holiday travel and errands.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 21-28. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 36-43. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 21-28. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 20-27. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. A touch of light snow and rain possible. Highs 35-42. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 22-29. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY (CHRISTMAS EVE): Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 25-29)

A fair, mild Christmas Day with high pressure in control. Low pressure approaches December 26 with clouds returning, then a good rain chance December 27 with a storm system passing through the Northeast, low center to our west and mild air in place as it looks at this point. Upper level low pressure may cause a few rain/snow showers with a slight cool-down later in the period, but no major cold indicated.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 30 – JANUARY 3)

Dry weather for the last couple days of 2023. Watching for a low pressure system and precipitation threat in the January 1-2 time frame, with fair, colder weather after that.

63 thoughts on “Wednesday December 20 2023 Forecast (6:50AM)”

  5. brrrr
    some mid-Winter cold this morning!!!
    NOT!!!!!!!!

    30 degrees here.

    big woof!!

    What a joke!!!!!!

    Going out 10 days on euro and cmc and 16 days on gfs and I still dob’t see any signs of Winter!!!!!

    Something had better change!!!@

    1. Need a Meteorological Miracle to create snow between now and mid-January. But we live in NE, a place where things have been known to change.

    1. During the past 10 years, we’ve had fleeting moments of snow and cold in December, including the one you’re referring to. But it’s mostly been ephemeral.

  8. While it’s nice to see the sun and to feel some refreshing air (though it is NOT cold at all), so far (and I know it’s early) this has been a non-existent winter … yet again. I don’t care for fleeting cold and snow from late February through April. I want to have it when we’re `supposed to.’ That wish hasn’t been granted often during the past decade.

    Last year there was no complete ice coverage across the Charles in Boston. Had not happened during the entire 20 year period that I’ve lived in Boston (and according to locals, had never happened during their lifetimes). If sustained cold doesn’t come or doesn’t arrive until February we could have a second year in a row of lack of ice coverage.

    On the other hand, we are guaranteed sustained heat and/or humidity in the summer months. I don’t want Boston to become a 3 season town. But effectively we’re becoming that.

    2. Triple dip La Niña, an El Niño that starts with unfavorable companion indices. No surprise.

      4 in a row and “recency bias” is also a factor.

      And don’t forget HTE.

      Media keeps ignoring it, but I sure as heck won’t, as a scientist.

      1. Did you ever try and get a panel together. I would love to hear a group discussion. And I know it is a busy time. Maybe after first of the year.

          1. It’s been a really rough year and I absolutely understand. My brother was rushed back to the hospital yesterday from his rehab. Let’s go for 2024

  9. The 00z GFS continued its maddening mid and long range inconsistencies.

    Anything after hr 120 is usually wildly inconsistent, run to run.

    The 00z run, out of nowhere, has a late mid range and long range with multiple cold shots coming into the east and within that trof, a decent storm with a New England rain/snow line.

    Now, I don’t trust any of that for a second unless we see those overall trend signals repeating in the next multiple runs of the 00z and 12z runs.

    So out of place though, considering most of the recent long range runs had plenty of relatively mild weather continuing.

    Its so frustrating the inconsistency.

    1. cold shot #1

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2023122000&fh=237&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

      cold shot approaching #2 with east coast storm

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2023122000&fh=330&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

      cold shot #3 on our doorstop

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2023122000&fh=378&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

      Again, don’t trust any of this, but it would be better for winter and snow enthusiasts than anything we have seen.

      This is the 00z GFS

        1. Agreed.

          Probably will all be so different on 12z.

          If its ever, in any way similar, than I will be curiously awaiting tomorrow’s 00z to see if we can get 3 in a row.
          Just the big picture details for consistency. 🙂

  13. Odds of a white Christmas for Boston: 1 in 4 (25%).

    Odds of a white Christmas on tv commercials and movies: 1 in 1 (100%)

    Is there such a ratio as “1 in 1”?

  14. So, there are changes, as we expected to the mid and long range on the 12z GFS vs its 00z run.

    But, I do feel as though there are at least some signals on the 12z GFS, as well, of opportunties for cooler/colder airmasses approaching and after New Years.

    Lets see if those signals hold.

  18. Philip, you make an excellent point. At this point I’m annoyed by commercials that depict the idyllic Christmas setting. It’s unusual, even in the Northern tier of our nation, to have a white Christmas. Yet, the ads tell a different story. Oh, and don’t get me started on the ad which shows a snowstorm causing a power outage and everyone’s smiling … Who smiles when there’s a power outage? I don’t care how many generators you might have or guests you have coming over.

  19. I bet this winter is going to be even milder then last winter. Can winter be cancelled if it does not even show up

    1. I’d take that bet. Any amount of money.

      Both the GFS and ECMWF extended models show a flip to a much colder pattern the 1st week of January. They both show -NAO, -AO, and +PNA after New Years (some quicker than others). Those three combined are indicative of a much colder pattern.

      This is very typical of an El Nino winter. December is usually warm with little to no snow, then January and February turn much colder, and can sometimes produce quite a lot of snow.

  21. Here’s a piece of one of those tekeconnections SAK mentioned.

    Can see a ridge poking up into Alaska.

    Should this verify, that will drop cold air down east of it into Canada and then into the US

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=500wh_nb&rh=2023122012&fh=252&r=na&dpdt=&mc=

    Euro only out to hr 240, hinting at it also. Has us cold at that time due to a huge upper low just to our northwest.

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=500wh_nb&rh=2023122012&fh=240&r=na&dpdt=&mc=

    SAK explained it great and I’ve been trying to show long term hints in the models. Can’t make a Jan-March conclusion based on December.

    2. The +PNA is the big one. That’s indicative of a ridge on the west coast, shutting off any Pacific air from coming across the country.

  22. Everything is going to plan to be honest, though i wish I was wrong. Slow start, Extended periods of warm with shots of cooler air in December but many pieces look to align starting in January, now with that said, I expect we get into a colder pattern around January 1st, but a big time snow storm January 12 to start snow blitz 2024 because I leave January 10th. 😛 No science, no reasoning just because I am leaving.

  23. Even stats like 1 in 4 for white xmas at Boston are deceiving because that’s a long term average. Sometimes people take it as we’ll definitely have 1 white xmas out of every 4. Nope. No white xmas at Boston 1981 through 1992. That’s 12 years. And the longest “green stretch” in the modern era. I’d be willing to bet we won’t see a stretch that long again in our lifetimes. 🙂

    Just echoing things already said (by myself and others) now: December, no surprise. There was a reason why I forecast above normal temps & below normal snowfall.

    And while long range forecasting is just a notch or two better than a coin flip, I’m still comfortable with a colder than December and snowier January during the transition. As noted above, various models have various timing, but the general trend is in the right direction if you’re a snow lover. I’ll hedge toward a slightly slower transition, but basically any time after 1/1/24, we’re more vulnerable. I’ll still stick with my gamble of a cold but dry February because of the suspected stronger blocking. I know, all it takes is one renegade storm to boost your snow total even if the rest of the month is bone dry. Extreme example: 1978. After an insanely stormy January, February had 1 storm, and we all know what that was. 😉 Otherwise, DRY.

    Carry on! I’m a busy bee the next few days with not a ton of time to check in here other than my daily posts. I’ll try to when I can.

  24. Anchorage Alaska has set a record for its snowiest 45-day period on record (73.4 inches), beating a 19 year old record.

    This, combined with some of the coldest air we’ve seen since the early 1980s on the Siberian side of the pole indicates that winter is indeed alive and well SOMEWHERE, but certainly hasn’t been here in SNE. But as we said, El Nino and accompanying indices say that this should not surprise anybody. 🙂

    1. Anchorage is up to 74.6″ since September 1. This is the most on record through December 20, and by a large margin. The previous record was 68.8″ in 1994.

  25. More storminess and an veritable barrage of lows crossing the Atlantic and entering the British Isles and Western Europe. You’ll see 4 of them in one of the maps. One of them is a named storm. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4SbjoGg7YQs

    Nothing unusual about this pattern in that part of the world. I became very accustomed to it, despite not liking it.

    As far as any change in the weather pattern here … I’ll believe it when I see it. Count me as skeptical.

    1. The major indices that drive it will be changing. The question is just how quickly it takes place.

  26. Hunga Tonga Effect strikes again! 80+ inches of rainfall in parts of northeastern Australia during the last 5 days.

    When you put an unprecedented amount of moisture into a layer of the atmosphere that is normally very DRY, it’s going to have a major impact. And we’re not done seeing these for a while…

    That particular event however is NOT unprecedented in that area.

    There are two other 80+ inch rainfall events on record for that same area.

    One of them occurred in four days in 1979.

    The other one occurred in just TWO days in 1898. INSANE!

    All of them were caused by stalled tropical storms.

  27. Thank you TK!

    Finally got power back late this afternoon. House is warming up and I am back online. We are just too spoiled these days and often take it for granted.

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