Saturday December 23 2023 Forecast (9:19AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 23-27)

Quiet weather for the next few days, including Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, but a warm front and disturbance moving slowly through the region will make C.E. & C.D. a little more cloudy as we turn milder. A weak cold front will come by the region on Tuesday with little fanfare. However, we are in El Nino, and the next storm system born of the subtropical jet stream will be here by the middle of next week, but again it looks like a rain event as the cold air will be trapped well to the north in Canada with the polar jet stream.

TODAY: Sun gives way to clouds. Highs 35-42. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A few snow showers possible. Lows 25-32. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Cloudy with patchy drizzle and a possible rain shower morning. Mostly cloudy to partly sunny afternoon. Highs 39-46. Wind variable under 10 MPH becoming SW.

SUNDAY NIGHT (CHRISTMAS EVE): Mostly to partly cloudy. Lows 31-38. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY (CHRISTMAS DAY): Partly sunny. Highs 43-50. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 32-39. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Rain arriving. Highs 43-50. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 28 – JANUARY 1)

Upper level low pressure may produce a few rain/snow showers December 28-29. Fair weather with high pressure in control December 30-31. Watching for the approach of low pressure and a return to unsettled weather as early as the first day of 2024. Temperatures above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 2-6)

Unsettled weather potential very early and again later in the period. Temperatures above to near normal.

37 thoughts on “Saturday December 23 2023 Forecast (9:19AM)”

  1. Good morning and thank you TK

    Ocean temp: 47.1

    I am getting bad vibes about colder air moving in the beginning of the new year.
    Either it being delayed Or not arriving at all.
    Ive seen this movie before and I didn’t like it. Hope I am wrong.

    1. As noted in my winter outlook, I believe it will be a gradual process – a transition period – and not “all at once”.

      1. Not sure I can take that. This is getting PATHETIC!!!!!

        I’m going to crawl back into my cave. Wake me up when Winter is here, IF it ever gets here. 🙂

  4. I think we are starting to see that transition occuring in the long range, its not there yet but things later this month and early January will set up the second half of January and February. Question is how many times does things get shunted south into the Mid-Atlantic and out to sea.

    1. It’s going to be slow for sure.

      AO trends in a good direction, MJO does not.

      It’s gone (as expected) near the circle through 8 and into 1, and will emerge a bit heading through the rest of 1 and into phases 2 & 3 as we finish December and start the new year.

  6. Thanks, TK.

    Winter’s on hold yet again. And it’s not a busy signal we’re getting. It’s more like being disconnected.

    After a solid start, winter has gone into full retreat mode across Europe and also parts of Asia. There are some areas of above-normal snow cover in northern China, Mongolia, the Koreas and northern Japan.

    1. A tight PV will do that!
      Accurate forecast actually, after December 10 it was going back to that. It did. And it’s still there but falling toward neutral and eventually may go a bit negative. But this is only one aspect of changing a pattern.

      Ironically, I was one of a group of people with weather knowledge that was banned from commenting on a page run by somebody who is a hype-master and has been forecasting a cold/snowy pattern to start “soon” since before Thanksgiving. Classic case of wish-casting and misleading followers. It’s rampant.

      So I try to pass along some actual meteorology when and where I can, but who wants that? 😉

      In the words of JPD: Pathetic.

      As I have stated many, many times…

      #MeteorologyNotModelology
      #GuidanceNotGospel

      Some people know this, many chose to ignore it. Oh well.

  7. I know it’s early but any idea on the storm Wednesday? How will it compare to the past two? Flooding , wind etc? Thanks.

      1. As is typical, these individual systems will not be handled well beyond a few days from pretty much any guidance be at the very poor GFS for some of the more currently reliable models.

        I do believe that the slow transition in the pattern will produce a variety of weather systems. The sensible weather that results from each of them will depend on the setup each time.

        We are now on about week 8 of continuous posts on social media from the wishcasters out there talking about the imminent cold and stormy pattern for the Northeast. The result of this relentless barrage of bullcrap has caused a lot of problems. I ran into somebody the other day who basically told me I don’t know what I’m doing because we keep saying it and it’s not going to happen.

        I quickly corrected them. As I will continue to do every time I run into it.

        #DefendTheProfession

          2. It’s the real deal my friend.
            I try not to let it bother me much, but when it’s thrown in your face constantly, it’s hard not to react, and I have to defend the profession in the name of GOOD information.

            I still maintain that sadly somebody is going to be badly hurt, or worse, by making decisions based on information from a source that should not be giving it. It’s so easy to fool people. And yes, they should know better, but if there’s a means to bring attention to it in the hopes that it might save one life or even one person from going to the hospital, it will always be worth it.

  11. The BPL has replaced its traditional wreaths with lighted snowflakes on the outside.

    The more I look at those snowflakes, the more that I miss the wreaths.

    1. I agree with you both. While I’m not in Boston, it frustrates me that when one group (that has been largely ignored) asks to be included and boom…everything just gets out of control. And we end up losing it all.

  15. BBC has always had truly outstanding reporters and correspondents. A cut above the rest, in my view. I also find the BBC and Met Office weather forecasters terrific, by the way.

    Steve Rosenberg is one of the BBC’s finest. He reports from Moscow. In his spare time he’s a composer and pianist. Here’s his latest composition reflective on the discord between Moscow’s December winter wonderland (depicted in the video) and the awful war in Ukraine. https://twitter.com/BBCSteveR/status/1738469493561549160

    From the frontlines, Ukrainian soldiers wishing folks a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year.
    https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1738581591205560374

    Mariupol, a city of 200,000, was obliterated by the Russians. It is one of dozens of cities and towns completely destroyed during the war. This is how it looked just 2 years ago, in the snow and getting ready for Christmas and New Year’s. https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1735705883177369831

    Wherever there is war in the world – from Sudan to Gaza to Ukraine – children suffer the most. At a time that is supposed to be about peace they undergo the unimaginable. https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1737956381955707186

    I post these sad images, because the world is in a very bad place right now. Worst it’s been in many years. Volatile. I think it will only get worse in 2024. We need to count our blessings that we’re not enduring what millions of other folks are on any given day.

  17. The Netherlands Met Office is reporting that 2023 will go down as both the warmest year ever (during the last 2 decades most years have been at record levels compared to the previous year, so this a definite trend) and the wettest. In terms of precipitation that record was set yesterday and given that a boat load of rain is on the way between now and the 31st it will become far and away the wettest year. And in terms of temperature, due to the strong likelihood of well above normal temps through the 31st the record will only increase relative to last year which was a record compared to the previous year, and so on and so forth.

      1. Indeed.

        Dutch Met Office reports on both global and domestic (Netherlands) temps as well as other data.

        Interestingly, the summer was not particularly warm over there. Not was the fall. In fact, fall was about average, perhaps below average in a few provinces. BUT spring was very warm AND last winter was exceptionally mild. It’s the latter that has been the most conspicuous over the years, according to climate scientists over there: Basically, a now long-term pattern of in their words “non-existent” winter, barely any frost even. This is more evident there (across much of Europe) than in North America.

  18. Heavy snow in Northern Iraq where skirmishes between the Turkish army and the PKK are escalating. Also Turkey carried out a major bombardment in Northern Syria today. https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1738740695970488481

    As mentioned in previous posts, this is the most dangerous period that I’ve witnessed globally since the early 90s when war broke out in the Balkans and there were other major flashpoints worldwide.

    It’s quite conceivable things could get worse in 2024 (I certainly don’t see them getting any better) with tensions brewing between China and Taiwan, Kosovo and Serbia, Venezuela and Guyana and swaths of the Middle East (not just Israel and Gaza).

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