Sunday December 24 2023 Forecast (8:23AM)

63 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 24-28)

Quiet, mainly cloudy, and mild is the theme for Christmas Eve & Christmas Day. A weak disturbance moving slowly through the region will be responsible for the abundant cloudiness along with some isolated patches of rain. If it rains where you are, it won’t last long, but if it happens early today west of I-95, watch for some black ice on untreated surfaces as temperatures sit around freezing to start out the day. Any icing issues will be short lived though as the temperature goes up enough to end it. Some lower level moisture especially in coastal areas can result in low clouds, patchy fog, and a couple spots of drizzle through early Christmas morning. If Rudolph needs to use his nose to help Santa tonight, it will be due to fog patches, not snowy weather. None of that around this time for the holiday! Looking ahead, a milder southerly air flow kicks in Tuesday as a weak ridge of high pressure slides over the region early then offshore. Clouds likely stay somewhat dominant on Tuesday though. When we get to midweek, we’ll be dealing with a larger scale low pressure system. Initially this storm matures and occludes out in the Midwest, and its energy stretches out and weakens as it moves east and northeast, but a redevelopment of the low will likely bring a slug of rain with mild air in place during Wednesday. By Thursday, this is moving beyond our region and we turn slightly colder, with a few rain/snow showers possible as upper level low pressure drifts over the region.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated rain showers. Patchy coastal drizzle and fog. Highs 39-46. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT (CHRISTMAS EVE): Mostly cloudy. Isolated rain showers. Patchy coastal drizzle and fog. Lows 33-40. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY (CHRISTMAS DAY): Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Highs 43-50. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Lots of clouds / limited sun. Highs 45-52. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 33-40. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Rain arriving. Highs 43-50. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain likely. Areas of fog. Lows 38-45. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. A rain or snow shower possible. Temperatures steady 38-45 to start but may fall slightly during the afternoon. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 29 – JANUARY 2)

Upper level low pressure may produce a few rain/snow showers December 29. Fair weather with high pressure in control December 30-31. Watching for the approach of low pressure and a return to unsettled weather in the first couple days of the new year but some indications are for this system to be kept to the south with more dry weather here. Temperatures above to near normal with a general cooling trend.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 3-7)

General trend is for a more seasonably chilly pattern but with storminess kept to the south, at least until late in the period when a precipitation threat is possible.

63 thoughts on “Sunday December 24 2023 Forecast (8:23AM)”

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Ocean temp: 47.1

    ho-hum weather…..

    Still waiting……
    and waiting….
    and waiting…..

    Dec 24th and a whopping 0 2 inch of snow for Boston.

    1. We’ve just come off the strongest +AO in months. It was at +3. No wonder the polar jet is so far north and we’re so mild.

      Ironically this was actually forecast to take place around December 10 (and it did) yet the online weenies kept preaching about the imminent turn to “deep arctic cold and major snowstorms” (to quote one of them). The influence these frauds have on the perception is far, far greater than it should be.

      And as I mentioned quite some time ago now, the MJO dropped into the circle and skipped the favorable phases, emerging back in unfavorable ones (as far as wanting snowy weather here goes).

      On a personal note, the lack of winter weather has been great for us here with all the visiting my mother does to my brother now, and the work we still have to do regarding his house. So the shorter the winter is for me, the better. 🙂

      1. No matter, there isn’t anything we can do about it.
        We shall see how it goes for January and February.
        We’ll probably have our Winter in April. 🙂 🙂 🙂

    1. Thanks for this JJ. Sorry, no memory of it. 🙂

      That was my first year at Northeastern University. According to the map, Boston and where I was living, Millis, Only received 4 or 5 inches. Not enough to remain in my memory banks, I am afraid. 🙂 🙂 🙂

  9. When I watch the forecasts on TV and see several mets say “we’ll see a nice warming trend over the next few days” I know I’m definitely in the minority. I think the majority of folks like it mild. Why else would the mets use the word “nice” to describe a “warming trend?”

  11. I pay little attention to social media but when a high ranking official criticizes the NWS or any weather folks, I find it shameful.

    So Shame on governor mills of Maine. In the Q&A it was noted that they heard more from her about the previous storm than the last one. She said she is only as good as the weather reports. She went on to say the NWS did not predict the higher winds. Not sure where she had her head but this past storm was very well forecast.

    https://www.newscentermaine.com/article/weather/severe-weather/maine-storm-could-take-several-days-to-clean-up/97-d79028cf-84dd-4de8-8bec-87e21d97daf8

    1. She rubbed me wrong the night they did a press conference to announce they had found the mass shooter.

      I just remember being so disappointed with some of her facial expressions. This far removed, I can’t remember specific examples, but I just remember after watching it thinking, that didn’t seem to come across good at all.

  12. Still eyeing around Jan 2nd

    Oh, nothing at all may happen or something may go well south or southeast of us.

    I don’t take the 00z GFS tiny system serious at all. Because previously, the gfs can’t simulate the system mid next week consistently at all, so how can I take its simulation of a storm after it seriously.

    Overall though, I see a somewhat consistent signal of a trof moving through in the flow around Jan 1-3 and think there can be a system within that trof in the east.

    1. You KNOW full well what will happen. NOTHING! 🙂

      Here is the Euro 500 mb for early on the 2nd

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=500wh&rh=2023122400&fh=222

      Surface, same time

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2023122400&fh=222

      Surface, evening of the 2nd

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2023122400&fh=240

      IF anything develops, THIS WILL be the result!!! 🙂

      1. Yes, perhaps. A little retrogration in the overall flow would help.

        But, if the overall 500 mb flow can set up, maybe we can get “rinse and repeat” and then one of those setups can line up for us.

        I just don’t feel like we’ve even had any chance really at 500 mb yet.

        1. Hope you are correct. You interpretation is the equivalent of my “snow dance”. 🙂

          We shall see. GFS is cranking now….

    1. Love that song. Danced around the kitchen while listening. The show was a favorite. I had a crush on George Maharis.

  17. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2023122412&fh=132&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    The 500 mb upper low, that will give the northern plains a blizzard in the next 24-48 hrs, wow, the GFS and euro really have very different scenarios on what happens with it in the following 2-4 days.

    It just makes everything after that so questionable as to what to take serious. I’m not even sure which model has the next 5-6 days right, particularly at days 4-6.

  19. Hopefully the GFS does what it does sometimes and trend back northwest to the sweet spot. Plenty of time for that to happen.

  20. Thanks, TK!

    Wishing everyone in the WHW family a very special, blessed and Merry Christmas with family and friends!!!

  23. Compare the 12Z GFS 500mb with the 12Z Euro 500mb
    at hour 228 or 7PM on the 2nd

    Euro

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=500wh&rh=2023122412&fh=228&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    GFS

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=500wh&rh=2023122412&fh=228&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    A wee but of difference there. Now let’s take a look at the surface features

    Euro, hour 228

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2023122412&fh=228&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    GFS, hour 228

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2023122412&fh=228&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    Euro Hour 234

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2023122412&fh=234&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    GFS hour 234

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2023122412&fh=234&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    Euro, hour 240

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2023122412&fh=240&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    GFS, hour 240

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2023122412&fh=240&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    Euro 10:1 SNOW with whatever is coming down still happening at hour 240.

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2023122412&fh=240&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    That’s 10 days out, but “at least” the Euro offer some hope, even IF it “may” be pure fiction. But it IS SOMETHING to look at. 🙂

    1. We’re to believe that the transition to a more favorable pattern for winter storm chances will be very slow. 🙂

      Models are going to show you all kinds of scenarios in their “computerized confusion”.

  27. JPD your message went to moderation because of the # of links but I approved it, so it’s there now. 🙂

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