Wednesday December 27 2023 Forecast (6:48AM)

89 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 27-31)

Unsettled weather will be dominant until the start of the weekend as a series of low pressure areas impact the region. This morning, while not as widespread as yesterday, there will be some areas of visibility-reducing fog, and today the sun is not as likely to break out once the fog burns off, as more cloud cover will be prevalent. Low pressure emerging off the Mid Atlantic Coast by tonight will move just southeast of New England during Thursday, producing a spell of rain for our region. This will taper off for a time, but additional periods of rain can still occur through Friday with a follow-up low, this one weaker, moving by the region. Finally, upper level low pressure swings through during Saturday with some lingering rain and snow showers as slightly colder air arrives. Finally, high pressure moves in with fair, seasonably chilly weather for the final day of 2023 on Sunday.

TODAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog this morning. Highs 42-49. Wind SW to variable under 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Rain arrives. Areas of fog. Lows 38-45. Wind variable to NE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely. Areas of fog. Highs 42-49. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain tapers off. Areas of fog and drizzle. Lows 38-45. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Periods of light rain possible. Areas of fog. Highs 41-48. Wind NE-N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain and/or snow showers. Lows 32-39. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Chance of rain and/or snow showers. Highs 37-44. Wind N-NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 23-30. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 1-5)

Drier and more seasonably chilly pattern to start 2024.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 6-10)

Unsettled weather threat comes early to mid period with rain/snow chances. Drier weather follows. Temperatures near normal.

89 thoughts on “Wednesday December 27 2023 Forecast (6:48AM)”

  5. Thanks TK
    Oz GFS fantasy storm end of the run. Will not happen. For snow lovers like me this unfavorable pattern continues.

  6. Thank you, TK.

    No fog here overnight. Although I know it can cause driving problems, there is something eerily beautiful about fog.

  9. May I ask again for more positive thoughts and prayers for my brother. He was slowly improving but now has pneumonia. He’s opted not to use a ventilator so has a CPAP machine helping him

  10. Thanks, TK!

    Rainshine and Vicki: You and your loved ones are in my prayers this morning!

    So is the GFS! 🙂

  11. Tom:

    Hope you’re enjoying a fun school break!

    Off to go bowling later with my brother who’s up from Virginia.

    1. Have fun with your brother bowling, Captain !

      Settling into the break now. 🙂

      We’re just kind of hanging close to home on this one.

  12. Thanks, TK.

    To me the difference (trend line) between Decembers past and present is NOT snowfall (though surely it’s been meager this year and last), rather it’s temperature and the feeling of winter.

    I know that there wasn’t much snow during the 80s in December. But I also know that none of my December visits then – I was living overseas and visited home for 2 to 3-week periods from mid December to early January – felt even remotely like this year or last, or quite a number of recent Decembers. Sure, there would be an occasional mild day (sometimes very mild), but invariably it would be followed by sharp cold, of which we’ve had none this December. And throughout most of the time during my visits then it felt and looked like winter. Ice on the ponds, sometimes thick enough to skate on, periodic layers of snow that would come and go, real bursts of cold (I am NOT talking 20s at night, rather teens and sometimes lower) and even sustained periods of cold.

    Similarly, there’s a definite trend line (upward moving temperatures) in the Netherlands and England.

    Also, there are definite changes in wildlife that have occurred over a relatively short period of time. I’ve observed that both in Europe and here.

      1. Using data for Lowell:

        Long term average (1886-2022):
        December: 30.2
        January: 26.1

        1979-80 36.7/30.6
        1980-81 25.8/19.7
        1981-82 31.8/19.9
        1982-83 36.9/29.3
        1983-84 29.1/22.9
        1984-85 28.3/19.9
        1985-86 28.4/29.2
        1986-87 32.7/25.6
        1987-88 34.4/25.8
        1988-89 29.5/30.6
        1989-90 18.0/33.0

        Your perception was not always reality. Many of those December/January periods in the 80s were in fact warmer than normal.

    1. Vicki: In the words of the late, great Jimmy Buffett (one of many incredible talents we lost in 2023):

      “If we couldn’t laugh, we’d all go insane.”

  16. Thanks, TK.

    Vicki, first, thoughts and prayers for your brother.

    After calling all these depts . in the hospital because no one could find him, I finally found out he is now in the CVO dept. He did have a blockage in his heart and they put a stent there. However, they found that he was running a fever of 101 degrees so they sent him to ICU where he will be for some time. He doesn’t have covid, flu or rsv(is that what that’s called?). I have a feeling it could be wound he has been fighting for the past few yrs. H e also has little bronchitis. In any case, he won’t be coming home for a few days at least. Unless he caught something in the hospital, I don’t know. I could visit him but there is covid going around the hospital so I don’t want to chance it. I miss him but our kitty has been looking for him all over the house. Makes me sad. Again, thank you all for your kind thoughts and prayers.

    2. I’m glad the blockage was caught & addressed & positive thoughts to you both , he’s in good hands . If you have underlying health conditions it’s best if possible to stay home as he will need you well when he returns . As I mentioned last night the Hospitals are busy with lots of different diseases right now & of at all possible stay clear .

    1. Thank you Longshot. He was taken from the Rehab to the hospital lady week for urosepsis and has been struggling since then.

  18. Thanks TK and hope everyone had a nice Christmas.

    Vicki and Rainshine, sorry to hear about your brother and husband’s health issues. I wish them both a speedy recovery.

            2. Sure the date is 12/25/2023, but READ the damn tweet:

              If we don’t receive any more snow this year, we’ll still end up with the 12th greatest calendar year snowfall in Flagstaff – 143.8″

              They are clearly talking about the calendar year 2023, 1/1/2023 – 12/31/2023.

              They are NOT talking about this Winter season.
              🙂

  20. I hope everyone had a good Christmas
    This Xmas was a good one, this was the first Xmas since my Grandpa passed away that it felt happy at my Aunts and Uncles house. My Moms good news after the bad year we have had and everything, people were happy. Its been a rough 3 years.

    Vicki and Rainshine my thoughts are with you two and your families.

    Now with some sports
    I was conflicted with the Patriots win, I was happy that they won and we have a decent back up and bridge qb in Zappe but I liked the 2nd or 3rd overall pick. It would have given the Patriots alot of flexibility.

    In other personal news, lets get them snow dances going, I am going to Stowe VT on the 5th and having a ski weekend, we need snow or at least cold weather get more trails opened.

  21. Vicki….good thoughts for you!
    My MIL is getting hospice care so you and I (and Mrs. Weatherbee2) are experiencing parallel emotions.

    Hang in there Rainshine. At least you now know what his medical issues are.

  27. SAK, I went back over my notes from the early 1980s. I kept a diary and always wrote down the temperatures wherever I was. I can assure you that during my visits from mid December (arrival dates in Boston, from the 14th to 19th) to very early January (usually returned to school on the 1st or 2nd) in 1980, 1981, 1982, 1983, and 1985 (I did not visit in 1984) were much colder than this year and practically all Decembers during the past decade. There was also never a period that lasted longer than 2 consecutive days with temps at night that didn’t dip below freezing. That’s not my perception. I was in Brookline, by the way, so not far from wherever the official measurements for the city of Boston would have been done.

    I’m trying to find my diaries from 1986 and 1988 when I visited. I should have them in my storage locker. I did not visit in 1987 or 1989. I’ll let you know what my diaries said when I find them from that period.

    I did not visit the U.S. in December in the 1990s until 1995. Needless to say, that December was quite wintry as was the rest of the winter.

  29. Mark, I follow the Dutch met office and they’re saying that the expected lobe of `cold,’ which you alluded to, is not going to be all that cold, at least not in the Netherlands. Certainly a transition to colder weather there. But they suggest caution if we interpret it as being a prelude to a sustained winter-like pattern.

  30. Seeing bugs flying around, as I did just now while out on my 1 mile walk to go grocery shopping, isn’t unprecedented. It happened a few years ago. But it’s not a normal thing.

  32. Rainshine, while I’m glad they have a diagnosis for your husband and he’s in good hands, I’m very sorry you’re having to deal with this during the holidays.

    Vicki, I’m hoping that your brother’s situation improves. So sorry to hear about his condition.

  33. Since July 1st 2023, Flagstaff has received a total of
    4.8 inches of snow

    Weather Service Report

    724
    CDUS45 KFGZ 270737
    CLIFLG

    CLIMATE REPORT
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
    1237 AM MST WED DEC 27 2023

    ……………………………..

    …THE FLAGSTAFF AZ AIRPORT CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR DECEMBER 26 2023…

    CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020
    CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1898 TO 2023

    WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST
    VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR
    NORMAL
    ………………………………………………………….
    TEMPERATURE (F)
    YESTERDAY
    MAXIMUM 48 323 PM 63 1980 42 6 54
    MINIMUM 9 755 AM -16 1924 16 -7 23
    AVERAGE 29 29 0

    PRECIPITATION (IN)
    YESTERDAY 0.00 1.83 1971 0.07 -0.07 0.00
    MONTH TO DATE 0.54 1.56 -1.02 1.15
    SINCE OCT 1 2.44 4.63 -2.19 3.68
    SINCE JAN 1 24.66 20.18 4.48 17.32

    SNOWFALL (IN)
    YESTERDAY 0.0 14.1 1979 0.6 -0.6 0.0
    MONTH TO DATE 0.7 15.2 -14.5 7.4
    SINCE JUL 1 4.8 24.9 -20.1 10.9
    SNOW DEPTH 0

    2. Thanks Dave for the clarification. I was reading it as season to date snow not year to date so that makes much more sense!

      Still meant what I said about you being hard to please though 🙂

        1. FYI: Your messages are going to moderation because there’s a missing letter in your email address. 🙂

  35. Rainshine. How upsetting for you not to be getting updates. It’s good that they have placed a stent. But I’m so sorry he is running a fever. Prayers rising for your husband and you.

    1. Rainshine I’m not sure which hospital your husband is at but metrowest has high Covid numbers. Brigham does Also. Your husband was smart to go by ambulance. It’s typically a shorter wait and usually bypasses the ER wait

      1. It is Metrowest. And it was a shorter wait. But back in the day, my husband had been in the hospital for various things and I always was with him, even in the ER. They advised me yesterday not to visit him in the ER. He is now in the cardiac area but I still am wary on going to visit. Such a shame. Again, praying for your brother. One of my friends says it seems a lot of people are sick. I still mask when inside places- actually double mask. It’s not comfortable but better safe than sorry.

        Will things ever get better? Even the environment is getting weird. We have a bird sing every night at 3:30 a.m and right after sunset. Kind of weird at this time of year.

        1. Fortunately for your husband, it seems the specialized areas such as cardio seem to be much much less likely to spread Covid. I feel the same as you. I also still mask in any inside setting but don’t go to a lot of inside places. Does your husband have a phone. And can you call the nurses station on fhe floor a couple of times a day for updates and also leave your name for them to call you with updates. You definitely should be hearing from the doctor

  36. Short term review: 3rd day in a row of “more sun than I forecast”. I don’t think too many people complained about that. 😉

    Upcoming short range: After 12z guidance review – no changes.

    Upcoming medium range: Ditto.

    Longer range: More “favorable” conditions for colder in the NHEM upcoming, but the impacts are likely to be quickly felt in Europe and much slower here in North America. As stated yesterday, and previously, this will be a slower transition than you’ll see on some guidance and hear from the social media weatherweenies.

    Have a good evening all!

    1. Oh my. I try to tell myself that Mac’s sister flew 40+ years including into Iran in the middle of Tehran under siege so it’s ok. Sometimes I don’t believe myself though

  39. I’ll take fig, please.
    And blessings on your sense of humor in the midst of all. Praying for your brother.

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