Thursday December 28 2023 Forecast (7:32AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 28 – JANUARY 1)

A series of low pressure areas results in a spell of unsettled weather until Saturday. The first one moving by just to our southeast today gives us most of our rainfall, especially the first half of the day. A follow up low can produce periods of additional rain through Friday. An upper level low and surface cold front have to swing through on Saturday with a rain and snow shower threat. The balance of the holiday weekend will feature more seasonably chilly weather as we say bye to 2023 Sunday and hi to 2024 Monday. Mainly dry weather is expected, but I can’t rule out a passing snow flurry with a weak disturbance moving through the region on Monday.

TODAY: Overcast with widespread rain and areas of fog through midday. Mostly cloudy with spotty light rain and drizzle during the rest of the day. Highs 42-49. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog and drizzle. Lows 38-45. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Periods of light rain possible. Areas of fog. Highs 41-48. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 33-40. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Chance of rain and/or snow showers. Highs 37-44. Wind W-NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 23-30. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 25-32. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. A passing snow flurry possible. Highs 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 2-6)

Dry and seasonably chilly weather with high pressure in control through the middle of next week before an unsettled weather threat looms later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 7-11)

Unsettled weather threat comes early period with a rain/snow chance. Drier weather follows. Temperatures near normal.

91 thoughts on “Thursday December 28 2023 Forecast (7:32AM)”

    1. That was the ocean temp in Humarock in January 2012. Most here were surprised by that temp. My niece who participated in the hum polar plunge was pleased.

      Not saying it means the same for this winter as that but as I recall that winter may have been a bust. It was warm enough for me to regularly sit outside on ocean facing deck of house we rented for month of January

  4. Thanks, TK.

    It’s fitting to close out the year with rain.

    My Christmas tree lights are on. They do brighten up the place on this rather dreary and dark day.

    Thinking of Rainshine’s husband, Vicki’s brother and TK’s brother, among other WHW members’ loved ones who’ve been struggling health-wise.

    While it’s a given that the sun will `come up’ every day (even when it doesn’t appear in the sky, like today), our health is not a given. Yet it’s far and away the most important thing to have.

  5. Thanks Tk . Another long 16 hour shift in progress so rain today does not matter . Hope to get good news from rainshine & Vicki today

  6. Thanks TK
    You know it’s bad as a snow lover when you are happy to see a fantasy storm like the 6z GFS is showing late next week.

  11. Been reading some lately about AI usage in meteorology and in climate forecasting. There are climate sites such as
    https://climate.ai/

    and Google’s DeepMind weather forecasting model, GraphCast.
    https://deepmind.google/discover/blog/graphcast-ai-model-for-faster-and-more-accurate-global-weather-forecasting/

    Probably a dozen others out there. At this point, I can’t tell whether these types of AI approaches are adding value or adding noise. It’s also a little difficult to see how GraphCast, for example, could outperform current models in local forecasting. I think the AI emphasis for now whether its climate or meteorology will be on global or continental changes. Interesting subject.

    1. Very interesting. I DON’T LIKE IT for a second!
      It’s no better that the people coding the algorithms and if they
      aren’t professional mets or at least consulting with professional mets, then what good is it??????

      TRASH, if you ask me.

      2. I cannot remember what old show I was watching a few days ago. One of the character said in 2030 we will have computers thinking for us.

        We are truly our own worst enemies.

  12. My younger daughter walked through to take the dogs out and groaned when I said more rain. She said thst ks all we have had since fall 2021 when they got their cavapoo puppy. The only exception was the 2022 summer drought.

    2. Regarding a transition to colder weather in Northwestern Europe next week, it will be painfully slow and once it gets there not as cold as some mets on this side of the Atlantic suggest it will be. In fact, it may only bring temperatures back towards their seasonal averages. Nothing in the long range indicates a sustained cold pattern, according to the mets in Europe. I’ll keep monitoring.

  15. Watching radar and seeing what has fallen and what still is to come, I feel like the euro and its bigger rain amounts are verifying on this system.

  18. Just to add to my AI comments above, I saw an article on this same subject earlier in the year where the author stated, in paragraph one, how AI would replace meteorologists. I honestly stopped reading. I really dislike baseless proclamations. Too much of it goes on. (I saw an article a few years ago where after leaving the Patriots, Jimmy Garoppolo declared he would be better than Brady. I stopped reading.)

    Where these AI weather forecasting experiments and articles all fail is in something that TK has reminded us about time and again … modelology vs meteorology. I can’t see how AI could deliver something better in either category frankly and most definitely not in meteorology. But I do believe the experimentation will continue for quite some time to come.

    1. Thanks JJ. Interesting. And he explains well in the comments.

      His exchange with Mark M is also interesting. Good for John H

      1. Can’t see that exchange as I don’t have an account and I REFUSE to get an account with that MORON ELON MUSK!!!

  22. Mark M on X likes to hype things and is a wish caster who I don’t pay attention to. John Homenuk tells it like it is and doesn’t hype or wish cast anything.

  24. Comparison of 12Z Euro and GFS at hour240

    12Z Euro

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2023122812&fh=240&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    12Z GFS

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2023122812&fh=240&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    At the very least, they appear to be in the same ball park, even if not in the same location exactly.

    Euro 500 mb

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=500wh&rh=2023122812&fh=240&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    GFS 500 mb

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2023122812&fh=240&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    Pretty significant difference on the 500 mb charts.

  25. Logan has come in with a whopping 0.56 inch on this event so far.
    I don’t see a whole lot of precip happening, perhaps a few tenths more as time goes on.

  28. I probably won’t have a chance to post before New Years so I wanted to wish everyone a happy and safe new years. Also praying for those of this blog and their loved ones who have health issues. Life has been hectic for me, had a neurofibroma removed from my ulnar nerve on my right arm – seems we all have our issues!

    Also my prayers for a mild winter so I don’t have to shovel much have been mercifully coming to fruition. It’s still early days yet in the snow season.

    3. So so nice to see you here, Dr. But very sorry to hear you have had health difficulties. I will hope for a Dr Stupid hole whenever and if ever it snows.

      I hope for you to have a very happy and healthy 2024.

  29. Irony: While we’re in a mild stretch here, during the next 2 weeks, more of the lower 48 will see below normal temps than above, in terms of area. The slow transition that I see in January is on track as well. Our first legit snow threat (widespread) for SNE should take place between January 11 & January 20.

    What we have in progress is a combo of classic El Nino (other indices applied) and the relatively still unknown HTE, which every day I become more convinced it’s significant. There are too many signs too ignore it, which would be bad science anyway to just ignore it. I’m ever curious what it does as we go through the winter season, which is only in its infancy.

    Related topic: Already seeing the “throw in the towel on winter” posts all over social media. “Winter’s over!” Do these people EVER learn? Wait, don’t answer that. I have it. The answer is a giant, oversized NO. Bahaha. Oh well, good for laughs anyway. 🙂

    Carry on! Probably won’t be back here til tomorrow…

    2. My guess is that some of what you are seeing is a bit of depression caused by the weather. Winter is hard for many due to lack of sun. Toss this mess in and it can be very difficult. It’s difficult to know what is going on in peoples lives. I’m trying to work a whole lot harder on that than I have been.

  30. 12z EURO for next Wednesday/Thursday, watch the pieces of northern energy diving down from Canada and the piece coming from the southern states, if that northern energy can speed up and dig a bit further it could get interesting. It would be a nice gift from mother nature to give us good snow just before I head up to Stowe for a ski weekend. Commence the snow dance!!

    1. I think if the pattern were a bit different that one would be our first threat, but I don’t think it happens until 7 to 10 days later.

  31. Vicki, so sorry that your brother’s health has now gone back in the opposite direction.

    Rainshine, so sorry about your husband’s condition. I didn’t know that he has health issues as well.

    As for myself, I have so many personal issues going on and upcoming, I don’t anticipate much participation here on this blog through AT LEAST the first half of 2024. I will try to “peak in” and/or post from time to time.

    Happy New Year to all!

    1. Thank you very much.

      Philip this is just such sad news. Please know we are all here …always…to support you. I pray things turn around for you. I wish you well in the new year ❤️

  39. Eric Fisher kind of sums it up with the temperature and snow data. This entire year (2023) has been winterless. Can things change in January? Sure. Do I think we’ll have anything resembling a sustained period of cold and snow (and I’d be okay with just a few weeks)? No. At the same time, am I absolutely sure it’ll get hot and humid for long stretches of time next summer? Yes. Herein lies my frustration.

    1. January we transition. February is cold (but probably dry). March is snowy for a while. Staying with my winter forecast and not summarizing what the winter has been like before it really gets started. 🙂

      And it’s weather coincidence that the 2022-2023 winter was how it was and is somewhat similar to how this one starts off. Both patterns happen to be unfavorable for snow in SNE.

      I mean it was pretty much like that most of the time in the 1980s. 🙂

  40. From Eric Fisher
    If you’re looking for big snow, odds certainly favor the 2nd half of winter. During El Nino, or really any winter in Boston.

    If you look at the Top 50 calendar day snowfalls, it breaks down like this:

    February: 23
    January: 13
    December: 6
    March: 5
    April: 2
    November: 1

    Or in other words, 72% of all of those biggest snowfalls happened after January 15th

    1. And yet every year a bunch of people assess the winter before the end of December. 🙂

      I simply don’t get it. 🙂

  41. I have already on X see so many people waving the white flag on winter today. Were only a week into winter.

    1. These people make me laugh. And as stated above, they never learn. And I (and other meteorologists) try giving them facts / stats, but they aren’t interested in actual information. It’s funny how shunned us professionals are now. 😉 Whatever. Their loss. 🙂

      1. Please note, I’m not assessing this winter yet. That would be premature and foolish, of course. But just as EF was doing with the temperature and snow data I am assessing this year (2023) which has been remarkably winter-less, going back to January 1. And I’m not (I never do) focus on snowfall. To me, snow is a bonus in winter, but not what I consider to be the end-all-be-all of winter. I’m just looking for some sustained cold, something that feels and looks like winter, some solid skate-worthy ice on the ponds and small rivers, for example. We haven’t had any and that goes back a long way and includes all of last winter, which, please believe me, is most unusual. As noted last year, the 2022-2023 winter was the first one I’ve ever experienced in Boston (and neighbors who’ve lived here for 50 years said the same) that the Charles didn’t freeze over at all (not even a thin layer from one side to the other). I’ve got bugs flying around my apartment, because they’re congregating outside in my basement well on December 28th. So when I open the window one or two come in. That also is very unusual, and I’ve not experienced in my two decades of living in Boston, and certainly never saw when I lived in Nahant, Needham, Milton and Brookline.

            1. International Falls, MN is running …..

              15.6F above average. That’s not a typo.

              +15.6F !!

              Patterns repeat, but your right to be worried Vicki.

              It’s snowless and cold less on steroids.

              Winter’s not over, but the climate of 40-50 years ago is.

              It’s over and the question is, how much will these extreme’s move to even further things we can’t prepare for.

        3. Oh I definitely know you’re not assessing the winter as a whole. 🙂

          We can’t do that anyway. It’s only been winter for 7 days.

          We can assess it in its entirety after March 20th. 🙂 And we can assess the snow season in its entirety once it stops snowing. 🙂

  42. S Clarke..
    I missed your post on the California drought earlier. Yes it has been pretty much obliterated, which is something that a couple of years ago I said I expected to happen. I’ll have to go back and do a search at some point to see when I had originally said that, but there were signs that the large-scale trends were going to change to erase a long-standing drought there.

    Interestingly I haven’t heard a whole lot about that from the media. I think they should be talking about it. It has huge implications on agriculture.

    And right now the news is good coming out of that area!

    Between the increased rainfall and the melt water from the record snow of last winter, the drought is history. Why aren’t they saying it?

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