Friday December 29 2023 Forecast (7:24AM)

91 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 29 – JANUARY 2)

Low pressure brings additional damp weather today. An upper trough and frontal system pass through Saturday with a little bit of lingering unsettled weather. The trend is drier and a little colder to end 2023 and begin 2024, but a quick shower of rain and/or snow may accompany the passage of a trough on New Year’s Day.

TODAY: Cloudy. Periods of light rain possible. Areas of fog. Highs 41-48. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 33-40. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Chance of rain and/or snow showers. Highs 37-44. Wind W-NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 23-30. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 25-32. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. A passing snow flurry possible. Highs 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 3-7)

Dry and seasonably chilly weather with high pressure in control during the middle of next week before an unsettled weather threat later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 8-12)

This period features mainly dry weather and an unsteady but general trend toward colder weather.

91 thoughts on “Friday December 29 2023 Forecast (7:24AM)”

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Ocean Temp: 46.9

    Still Nothing on the horizon…..Boo Who

    We’ll see what the new year brings. Still a lot of Winter left. 🙂

  4. Thanks Tk . Finally after todays OT shift I’m off for two days before next shift New Year’s Day

        1. Ahhh so elective and not forced. That is good. My son works selective OT at least twice a week. There was a point where it was forced weekly for an entire shift. That is nasty

  6. TK – Thanks for your comments on the CA water situation at the end of the previous post.

    I completely agree about the lack of recent media coverage. I remember those constant photos of docks and boats left grounded by the receding water levels. Of course, who will click on a photo showing things as they are now!

  8. Thank you, TK.

    Please note, I live next to the Charles river. It did NOT freeze over in Boston – not from one side to the other – in February 2023. I know. I run there every day and have done so since 2003. Last winter’s lack of anything remotely close to sustained cold was very unusual. Even in the winter of 2011-2012 the Charles froze over in Boston from one side to the other in January (not that you’d want to try and walk across it then, but it was entirely frozen with a thin layer of ice).

    What’s REALLY striking to me (and not just me) is having long stretches in winter of above freezing weather (also at night). I’m not talking about a couple of days here and there. That has always happened. No, I’m talking about stretches like the current one in which the temperature where I am hasn’t gone below 35F in many days. And if this was a period of thaw or something that happened on occasion, I wouldn’t be concerned at all. I am concerned at the frequency of these periods during which Boston is essentially London (UK) or Raleigh-Durham in terms of temperature. It’s a bit unsettling.

      1. Our climate was predicted years ago to begin resembling that of states south of here (NJ). And I understand it is a combination of many factors. But Each year we warm despite the different underlying causes. The overall cause is our climate warming due to our continued destruction of every corner or our earth and atmosphere.

        I was thinking the same as SClarke and TK with regard to few headlines for rain ending drought in CA. But maybe it is more worrisome that there are few headlines for the danger we are facing. Some of our local Mets are mentioning this more. Pete, JR, Eric all recognize it.

  9. I love weather. All kinds. All seasons. But it appears I have found the proverbial exception that proves the rule. This weather is just plain nasty.

      1. I love occasional days like this. I am not fond of day after day of this. .

        But then my nephew just called and had my brother ion speaker phone. He cannot say much but just to hear his voice for a minute or so sure brought sun to my morning.

          1. Thank you. It sure was. saw his sons called ID so said hi to him. When my brother said Hi Vic, I darn near jumped out of my chair. It is amazing how two words can sound so beautiful. .

    2. I’m struggling with it mentally.

      Not the lack of snow, I miss that but that’s not draining me mentally.

      It’s the gloom and darkness.

      I’m trying a different take today and instead of relaxing, I’m staying busy. See if that helps. So far, the active approach seems to have me feeling better.

      1. I am also and I like your approach. And Tom, you know when you start to struggle something is just not right. You are always upbeat.

        I have been busy with Christmas fun….topped off by last night when all of our children and grandchildren were here. It was beyond special. So I think I’ll take the opposite approach and watch hallmark movies all day. With any luck our plans will work for both of us.

  11. Yes, New Jersey is a better comparator. Agree.

    In the late 90s I commuted every week to and from Philadelphia for a long-term research project. What I noticed in winter was the conspicuous difference in temperature (and sometimes weather itself) between Boston and Philadelphia. I rode the train and so I could see where the snowline ended on the way down and began on the way back. It was usually somewhere in Rhode Island. Mind you, Boston (and SNE) was not having copious amounts of snow during this time period. But, the remnants of storms/events would stick around. Moreover, there were many events that were all rain in Philadelphia and vicinity while they produced at least some snow in Boston and vicinity. And then there was the ice on bodies of water. Again, there was a line of demarcation, usually somewhere in Southern Connecticut, between there being at least some ice (and often quite a layer of ice) and no ice. There was almost no ice during several of these winters in and around Philadelphia, while there was plenty of ice every winter in and around Boston.

  13. I HATE doom and gloom days!! Absolutely can’t stand it!!!!!

    CONGRATS on 13 years!!! I can’t believe that many years have passed already!!!

    THANK YOU TK for providing this fantastic forum!!!!!
    AND ALL YOU DO!!!

  16. I guess it is a function of El Nino, but I see many systems develop
    in the Gulf and then come up the coast into a Mild to Warm air mass.

  19. Congratulations on 13 years, TK! I wasn’t aware that the blog began on Dec. 26th.

    This isn’t my favorite weather, for sure, but I’m always grateful when I don’t have to start shoveling and driving four hours before a performance in order to get there — and there are a lot of them in December. Now: Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow!

  23. When I was younger, I loved snowstorms and great accumulation on the ground. The feel and sound of the nighttime crunch with temperatures in the lower teens was so special.
    Then I succumbed to marital pressure and got a dog. Then 2 years later, I succumbed again.
    Nothing like walking 2 dogs in the morning after maintenance has put down “snowmelt ” on the sidewalks. And then the dogs start limping or walking on 3 legs. So you carry them to their favorite spots and then back home. Thankfully , they were small.
    15 years later, dog number 2 (only 5 lbs) is the only one left. She was not born stupid. Won’t walk in the rain or snow. So, have to carry her as far away as possible, then she will walk home and stop on the way to do what is necessary, the world being a dogs bathroom.
    So, to conclude, best case for me is an overnight snowstorm followed by rapid melting just before sunrise.

    And congratulations TK! 13 years without those WBZ Yahoos is a joy!!!

  26. I am still interested in late next week period. EURO/EPS has been hinting at something around there, its all about matching up the pieces as you all know but the possibility is there,

  27. So, prior to the very strong / tight PV keeping the NHEM very mild for the last few weeks, we had an interruption in it which sent arctic air to NW Europe first, then Asia, during which some of the coldest temperatures since the early 1980s were observed. That was lost in the info pipeline though because of where it was, so the focus has been on the very mild North American continent. Yes, usually when all the cold goes into Asia in a 2-part split, North America is MILD. Fits perfectly with the type of pattern we were in, and then the expansion of the mild air fits in with the combination of HTE, +AO, +AMO, and of course El Nino. El Nino winters tend to produce mild and very little snow in our region in December. So, no surprise there. Add the enhancement of the other indices and what have you got? It’s no surprise to me, let me tell you that much. As a meteorologist, I definitely know what I’m talking about. Got a bit of experience in this area, since I have forecast weather for the entire world for 33 years. 😉

    So now what? Well, there are changes coming, and JPD you may like some of them, and Joshua you may like some of them. But don’t jump the gun on time – it will take a while. If you recall, back on November 22, I issued a long range forecast that called for mild weather and below normal snowfall in December, and a transition period in January. And the caveat was the HTE wildcard. Now we’ve seen what is likely a boost from that (proof to come, but I’m confident it will). And that wildcard also remains as we head into other patterns this winter ahead. And add ANOTHER wildcard which is a potential SSW event. I don’t talk about those unless I feel they’re actually coming, and this one has a decent shot. Stay tuned folks… 🙂

    1. Thank you TK. Sounds intriguing. Now let’s see if anything pans out. At least there is some real hope…

      1. I left out MJO. It’s not favorable until possibly around January 10. It moves into phases 2 through 4 and then drops into the circle but may skip 5 through 7 and re-emerge in phase 8 mid month.

      2. Also, look at CPC’s 6-10 & 8-14. These are NOT showing coast to coast torching. Yes the country as a whole has been mild but we’re not burning up like we were in a year like 2001 for example. The current and upcoming profile FITS EL NINO. Like to the letter!

    2. Thanks TK. I read an interesting discussion of thr PV two days ago and how the warming poles are impacting it. I’ll see if I can find it.

      1. The HTE is the Hunga Tonga Effect (I made that one up). Basically it’s the some known and some still unknown large scale and medium to long term effects of the unprecedented amount of water vapor in the stratosphere as a result of the eruption of the underwater volcano in January of 2022.

        To start with, in the months following the eruption there was a significant spike in global temperature that does not match the more gradual upward trend with longer term warming of the global climate. It follows that this would have an immediate and lasting impact on the climate on the large scale, and right down to individual weather events. We’ve been observing that since last year, especially this year, and probably through 2024, and potentially as long as 3 more years.

        There is much to learn still, but if the science of meteorology does its job properly, we’ll gain tremendous helpful information from this natural event.

        1. Not sure you saw my reply to you a few days ago. I’d love to help get a panel together. I’ve heard back from. Four folks now and could reach out to them.

            1. If you get me names and contact I’d be happy to at least start reaching out. I would pass everything by you before contacting anyone.

  28. Happy 13th Anniversary to WHW! And thank you TK for giving us the up to date information. I still always look at WHW for the most accurate weather info. You do a great job! Thanks!

        1. Thank you. I not have an update since this morning. The doctors were playing with the idea of removing his oxygen which is a huge step from just a couple of days ago.

    1. he actually been talking about the climate changing for a while but there are times that he posts things that might make some think he doesn’t.

      1. Oh I never thought he doesn’t. Sorry if I gave that impression. I had named a few earlier who are educating folks and I didn’t name Ryan We have a few Mets who I know from the several times I’ve sent the same question to that are skeptics.

  30. As TK mentioned and I have talked about several times, an Arctic intrusion into NW Europe but also parts of Central Europe occurred about a month ago and lasted 10-14 days. It produced plenty of snow in the Alps and other mountain ranges. It also led to cold temperatures, though not record cold by any means. The record cold was in China and other parts of Asia, as TK also mentioned. Normal winter cold has stuck around in most of Scandinavia, too, though it has receded from Ukraine and the European part of Russia.

    Since around the 12th of December the weather changed rather dramatically across Europe, almost like a sustained March thaw. Temps soared to well above average readings pretty much everywhere except the afore-mentioned Scandinavia, which in turn led to a massive snow melt across Central Europe. That is one of several reasons why rivers like the Danube are overflowing. The other reason is a constant barrage of Atlantic lows hammering the British Isles, but also the low countries and beyond with plenty of rain and wind. The already water-logged areas which have seen record precipitation this year can’t drain properly. The Netherlands is especially susceptible to flooding as the Western half of the nation is below sea level. The very elaborate system of water works and dikes have kept the West of Holland safe. But, other large parts of the Netherlands and Germany are under water. There are serious concerns about the rivers and other bodies of water overflowing and flooding cities, towns and villages. This video shows what it looks like throughout the Netherlands. I used to live there and though we experienced some flooding from time to time it was never this extensive. https://nos.nl/video/2502855-vanuit-de-lucht-het-hoogwater-in-nederland

  31. Misty in the city but the temperature is not bad , decided to do another 8 hour shift out at 11pm

  33. CFS model trends…

    Transitional pattern in January. Wintry systems become more likely after January 10. This transition was talked about in my winter forecast.

    Trend to cold/dry by early February. This also lines up with my winter forecast.

    European monthlies are similar.

    1. Interesting! My father was a little over a month old that day and living in Albany, NY. The last three days of 1917 hold the records for lowest high temperatures at -2, -7 and -2.

  37. I love the grey of December in this pattern. Some of my favorite walk & photography weather. 🙂

    Oh yeah, new weather post. 🙂

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