DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 30 – JANUARY 3)
Upper level low pressure and a surface cold front swing through from northwest to southeast today, maintaining unsettled weather for several hours. We’ll start to see improvement at the end of the day as the front pulls through and drier air arrives. Behind this front it turns more seasonably chilly for the end of the weekend and the final day of 2023 on Sunday with dry weather. A trough passing by on Monday may be responsible for a rain or snow shower in a few locations as we greet 2024. A dry, chilly westerly air flow is expected for Tuesday and Wednesday, but later Wednesday another weak cold frontal boundary approaching may cause a snow flurry.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy through midday with a chance of rain showers. Decreasing clouds late-day from northwest to southeast. Highs 38-45. Wind W up to 10 MPH, shifting to NW 5-15 MPH by late-day.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 23-30. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 25-32. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. A passing snow flurry possible. Highs 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. A passing snow flurry possible. Highs 36-41. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 4-8)
Disturbance passes by early period with minor precipitation threat but more organized storminess gets going offshore and moves away. Will watch for a southern jet stream storm system near or south of the region later in the period. Polar jet stream remains in Canada – temps run on the mild side of normal.
DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 9-13)
We’ll feel the effects of a slow pattern transition with a bit more chill. A dry pattern early to mid period. A storm threat may present itself late period.
Looks like Boston’s snowfall will top out at 0.2 for the month, tied in the 4th slot for “least snowy December” with 2018 and 1941, but losing the battle to 1957 & 1989 with 0.1 inch each, 1891, 1953, and 1973 with traces, and 1999 which was reported to have 0.0 but probably had a trace in reality.
Ironically, the decade with the most above average December snows in Boston was the 2010s. I guess the 2020s are trying to balance that out. 😉
“Remember when it used to snow in December?” I loathe this statement and I see it everywhere. Yeah, I do remember. It snowed quite a bit in several Decembers last decade. That wasn’t that long ago.
#NumbersDoNotLie
That was one topic Harvey addressed.
Good morning and thank you TK
Boston Buoy Water temp: 46.9
Divergence among the 3 major models.
Canadian for the 4th/5th
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&rh=2023123000&fh=144
EURO
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&rh=2023123000&fh=144
GFS
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&rh=2023123000&fh=144
Is there a threat for the 4th/5th OR not?
We shall see. Waiting on the 12Z runs 🙂
Canadian has been great lately but I’ve taken note that it struggles in this range and uses too fat a paint brush for precip. Not the right solution. Euro may be a bit too fast (surprise surprise, yes it’s a surprise). GFS may actually have the best idea. Hey once in a while a craptacular model is going to do “alright”.
Yeah, probably. But, I still look and hope. 🙂
Thanks
MJO is not your friend at the moment. 😉
right now noting is my friend for Winter. 🙂
Now I’m rooting for the transition to be slow because if it snows shortly after I leave I’ll be grumpy 🙂
Mother Nature shall comply.
Thanks TK
The experts on X declaring winter over. Let’s move on to spring everyone and maybe mother nature will deliver us some good thunderstorm days this summer. I am being sarcastic of course.
https://twitter.com/WeatherNut27/status/1740098591535034749
https://twitter.com/JayB7897/status/1741103178265907664
Thanks, TK.
Dutch mets have been consistently cautious about the (non) arrival of an Arctic intrusion into NW Europe. Earlier in the week they predicted a very gradual transition over the coming 2 weeks from the current (very) mild, wet, and windy regime towards something drier and somewhat colder, but they cautioned it wouldn’t be especially wintry. Now they’re saying the cold air intrusion might not come to fruition. Besides it probably getting drier and less windy over the next 7 to 10 days, they’re not confident that even seasonably chilly weather will come into the picture. As one met put it (I’m translating), we know with near certainty it won’t be even seasonably cold in the coming week (for Netherlands as a whole, average this time of year is ~41F/34F), and now we’re becoming skeptical about cold air arriving after that.
Note, this applies to NW Europe and not here. But sometimes what happens there – and vice versa – can at least suggest what kinds of changes we can expect: For example, an unlocking, if you will, of polar cold.
The Netherlands is at a considerably higher latitude than Massachusetts, but this does not mean it’s colder. In fact, it’s typically substantially milder than here in winter, even though it’s within several hundred kilometers of places that do get sustained cold and snow in a typical winter. Why? Well, it’s the powerful influence of the Atlantic and the prevailing (dominant) southwesterly. On almost any given day in the Netherlands the winds will be out of the southwest, west, or northwest, therefore from the Atlantic and North Sea, which cools things off in summer and `warms’ things up in winter.
At least they are acknowledging the gradual change as I have pointed out numerous times previously and not expecting a sudden one.
Thanks TK !
An indication of just how wet and windy it’s been across NW Europe is the fact that the Eurostar train service has been severely disrupted today. Almost all trains have been canceled, including the one my ex-wife was to be on, returning home to Amsterdam after visiting our daughter in London. The reason for cancelation is flooding in the tunnel beneath the North Sea, where the trains ride. I must say, if there’s something I fear about traveling in the chunnel as they call it, it is being flooded out. My guess is the windswept rain made it into the tunnel at the point at which the trains enter it.
In the presentation I cited below, Harvey mentions a wetter world several times.
Thanks TK
I am listening to a fascinating presentation by Harvey Leonard on climate change. Interestingly he recommends using climate central and NASA to learn more which are the ones I’ve been citing here.
He also mentions HTHH but couldn’t recall the name. As is the case with the four folks who have gotten back to me, he feels it adds to climate but the overriding cause is climate change.
It’s an hour but is remarkably well done.
https://youtu.be/g0tRer8-EQE
Thank you Vicki! Harvey did a FANTASTIC job!
He is presenting it in a manner that the lay person can understand!
Kudos to Harvey!!
I agree. I just finished. And he did EXACTLY as you said.
I really cannot recommend this more highly. Harvey answered nearly all and maybe all of the questions we have asked here.
Add Mike W to our Mets who are more vocal on climate change. Wcvb Mets have been laggers by a bit so this is nice to see. Sadly, I’m afraid it may be too late.
Mike W…..”As we wind down 2023 it will go down in the record books as the 3rd warmest year on record in Boston. Look at the top 5, they are all in recent memory. Climate change is not in the future, it’s here. “
https://x.com/metmikewcvb/status/1740941004432130384?s=46&t=neG9xl79s_BtNQXSGBlqLQ
As I’ve said before, I believe that part of the reason why climate change is a main topic of political discussion in both liberal and conservative circles in Europe – for example, in the UK the Conservative Party includes policies to combat climate change in the platform – is that Europe is already more impacted by it than we are. This especially holds true in places like the low countries – Netherlands and Belgium – where much of the land is under sea level. And so, melting ice caps, rising ocean/sea levels have and will have a negative impact.
Now of course there’s always the scientific question of how much of an influence do humans have on climate change. The European scientists I’ve spoken to say that the question is often poorly framed, as if there’s a binary answer: Yes or no. Rather, as with practically any question good answers will be nuanced, will be on the spectrum between a 100% yes or a 100% no.
Just how dominant climate change is in European media and political discussions can be gleaned from the fact that it’s very often THE main headline in newspapers and TV media: Today, for example, in the Netherlands, as it’s now official that 2023 was both the warmest and wettest on record in that country. And I must say the discussions these articles and reports generate are sophisticated. No-one there claims there is a magic bullet policy that will turn the tide. In fact, most admit that it’s nearly impossible to turn the tide. But there’s consensus that we as humans – as stewards of the earth – must take steps to ensure a less polluted, less fossil-fuel dependent and more habitable earth for future generations.
Other countries are doing a far better job than we are where we are making it political. The fact that more of our meteorologists are vocally backing the absolutely science may help. Harvey pointed out in the link I posted above that our media plays a large and negative part. He said if more politely than I just did. But we all know that here.
I have tremendous admiration for any met who tries to educate on the changing climate. Each one gets negative and sometimes nasty comments from the social media trolls. But the Mets have obviously decided it is worth the criticism
Thanks, TK!
Lilacs!
https://ibb.co/KG79rjm
12Z Canadian for the 4th/5th
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2023123012&fh=138&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2023123012&fh=144&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Kuchera Snow
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023123012&fh=156&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Canadian has been pretty consistent with an event at this time period, even if intensity,track and precip type may have varied some which would be expected that far out.
I find it interesting. We shall see. 🙂
Thanks TK.
My son and family are someplace in Maine. Fairly far up on ocean side but I can never remember the name. They have flurries. I bet if I look at the radar I can figure where 😉
From Portland North ALL over the state of Maine and MORE
than just flurries. 🙂
I looked at radar. Video he sent is flurries. But I think he is further north since it’s a 6.5 he drive from RI, so he is probably on the edge.
Just finished watching the entire Harvey Lenard presentation
posted by Vicki!
It was outstanding! Very well done!
great job Harvey.
Well worth the hour, believe me!
THANK YOU Vicki!!!
My pleasure and thank you. It sure is well worth the hour. Wow.
California is taking a beating along the coast. Wow
https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-forecasts/massive-waves-sweep-away-onlookers-in-california-more-dangerous-waves-on-the-way/1607835
WOW! That wave sure came a long way inland!!!
Having lived and worked in California for 30 years, I’’ve been tracking this some. Venture County is taking a real hit. Nature has its way with that state. I lost my home in the 1984 earthquake (fortunately bought earthquake insurance the year before) and then there are fires and droughts. It can be a great place if you like the outdoors and all its activities but there are trade offs.
Just an update. My husband has been discharged from the hospital and is on his way home. I would have picked him up but my stomach has been not happy due to stress so a taxi is picking him up.
Vicki – hope your brother is improving.
Great news! Thank you for sharing. Hope you feel better!
Very good news!!!
Very good news!
Great news Rainshine !
Excellent news, Rainshine!
12Z ICON is on board with a system for the 4th/5th
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/icon/2023123012/icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_46.png
That’s 2 models. We’ll see what they Euro says
It should slow the system down a little bit but keep it minor.
Thank you, Vicki, for sending the Harvey Leonard presentation.
Politicization of topics like climate change happens everywhere. But to the degree to which politics gets involved here is greater. Granted, it’s a feature of our polarization. People stake a position on something often because it is “left” or it is “right,” and not necessarily because it is factual. Both sides can be accused of this. And it’s unfortunate, because in the long run something like climate changes affects all of us, Democrat, Republican, Independent and the politically agnostic.
But, most deniers are affiliated with a certain party.
Well one of the big wins last year for coral reefs was that they were designated Natural infrastructure which means we can now take from infrastructure, hazard mitigation, and disaster recovery monies for reef conservation and restoration to protect people, property, and livelihoods. It has become political but scientists are now finally starting to take advantage of that fact. In fact many organizations in Florida have gotten more money under Desantis than any other governor before hand because scientists and organizations played his game. Basically the smart people played him like a fiddle.
Well, it looks like the 12Z Euro is the off shore solution which is what most thought all along. Oh well, it ain’t over till it’s over. 🙂
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2023123012&fh=126&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2023123012&fh=132&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
Back edge of rainfall with the cold front is about 90 to 120 minutes away from Boston.
Classic example of a wind generated (fetch, long period swell) large wavelength ocean wave on the California coast. They get labeled as rogue wave sometimes.
Chances of experiencing something like this during an active El Niño pattern are greater. There was a warning out about dangerous conditions along the coast, but we always know there are people who do not heed such warnings. They are lucky it wasn’t worse. That one was not nearly as bad as some of them can be.
On the subject of climate change, the amount of alarmism is what I see as the biggest source of division. Can we be better stewards of the planet? Absolutely! The Greta Thunbergs of the world cause more harm than good towards there cause, which is ironic, but they lack an effective message and don’t connect with the average person. Instead of demonizing everyone and making outlandish statements about the future, they would be better served to focus on the good. I bet most people don’t know that CO2 emissions have been declining in the US and Europe for two decades! Unfortunately, China and India have picked up the slack and then some. I’m hopeful technology will solve this and a more pragmatic approach to energy which includes Nuclear, the cleanest energy source on the planet. For all the red state bashers out there, Georgia just brought on the first nuclear plant that was approved and commissioned in the US, this century. As for temperature data, I would like to see how city’s and sensor data is impacted by their heat island effect. It makes sense that Boston or any major metropolitan area is warmer as a result of this phenomenon, but is this true for areas just outside? My point is, how useful is this data in determining global temperature impact if it’s being skewed by city centers. I don’t claim to have the answers but seems like a worthwhile exercise.
Yeah CO2 emmissions have gone down a bit in the US but we been increasing some other ones some of which are 2 to as much as 10 times more potent Also some areas have greatly reduced their green house gases but others in the USA has increased theirs. There are a handful of issues with Nuclear power. Guess where most of the US nuclear waste gets dumped 😉 There are two types of nuclear power and the one that is actually sustainable, actually clean we can not harness safely. China says they can do it but I have my doubts. I really want to see solar and wind go go up, but one that is not really talked about.. tidal and wave power. We could have platforms out on the water with Solar, wind, wave/current and tidal all while creating habitat like the oil rigs do in the Gulf. The heat island effect has several reasons for it. But I will take it out of city land scapes. Lets go to the Savannas of Africa.. Back in the Day the areas of human centers, they planted natural trees around them. Circles, you can still see some of these on the maps today. What this does was one, increase rainfall locally, decrease temperatures and second protect them from the brush fires. This shows that even in high population areas, it does not always = higher temperatures.
In terms of Greta I have lost alot of my respect for her over the past year. I never liked PETA, these types of people have taken away from groups that have and are making changes, making it harder for people that know what they are talking about. I honestly been getting annoyed by both sides and many in my field are frustrated. Alot of exagerations with mostly truth but somethings not correct which gives deniers amo.
Thank you both. I agree re the Greta type folks. Both sides. But despite some isolated areas that are decreasing CO2, the US is second to China. I think we may have reduced our carbon emissions per capita some.
Mac worked closely with our clients who had nuclear plants. The last thing he supported was nuclear. The half life of a few of the isotopes is days. Most are 30 years for half life. Plutonium is over 20,000 years. I am quoting mac so it’s been years but believe I’m correct but my use of the term isotopes may be wrong.
But I don’t think I’m being overly dramatic when I say I’m terrified. We are very close to if not at the point of no return.
Fantastic news, Rainshine!!!
Guidance update…
ICON: No.
Canadian: Nah.
GFS: Ok thru about day 6, then forget it. Can’t handle how many systems there are to work out.
ECMWF: Best handle on the pattern at the moment.
Any other models I didn’t mention: There was a reason for that.
This was above, but meant to be here, so I repeat
Well, it looks like the 12Z Euro is the off shore solution which is what most thought all along. Oh well, it ain’t over till it’s over.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2023123012&fh=126&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2023123012&fh=132&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
GoForSnow, agree that there is often too much alarmism and demonization.
However, environmentalists and conservationists – who some called alarmists in the 1960s and 70s – were and are at the vanguard of changes in how we treat our planet, whether it’s the ban on DDT >50 years ago, regulations around toxic waste disposal >50 years ago, limits on aerosols to protect the ozone layer >40 years ago, limits on CO2 emissions (which you allude to) >30 years ago, etc … Curiously, environmentalists and conservationists were far more politically diverse in the past, going back to Teddy Roosevelt and others, than they are today. The GOP has forgotten some of its core values. The Democratic Party too often demonizes and caricatures red state behavior, which as you point out, is more nuanced than meets the eye.
To me, green initiatives of many kinds, which some view as extreme or alarmist, are necessary to either stimulate a societal discussion or in some cases bring about change.
The free market doesn’t do this on its own. It requires nudges in the form of regulations investments in infrastructure and tax incentives to direct our behavior (here by our I mean individuals but also businesses) towards being better stewards of the earth.
there is a difference between the conservation and environmental scientists and conservationists and environmentalists. This is one of the things that are driving the scientists in these fields up the wall at times.
Euro has another off shore system on the 8th.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2023123012&fh=210&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
And as USUAL, after a few suppressed off shore systems a freakin LAKES CUTTER. WHAT ELSE IS NEW!!!!!!!!!!!!!
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2023123012&fh=240&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
This sucker might end up in MANITOBA for crying out loud.
Don’t know what kind of redevelopment(s) there may or may not be. I don’t care, I am still STEAMING ANGRY over this!!!!
Then after this will we go back to suppressed systems.
ARGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!@))#(!@(#!@_#(!_#)(!_@#(!_@(#_!(@#!#(!@#(!@#(@_#(_!@#(!@(_#)!@)#!@(!(#)!)_#(_)(
There’s been a reason all along I said “after January 10”. 🙂
Put a little star on January 13. 😉
Noted 🙂
January 13th, eh. I’ll be watching!
Obviously, you don’t think the GFS configuration is worth a stinken penny!!! Who would, that piece of S**t model.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2023123012&fh=336&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
i want to see what the Euro and Canadian have to say when the 13th comes into range in a few days.
My Davis Instruments Vantage Vue Weather station just crapped out. My wife picked up the console to dust underneath it and Wham Bang, it started beeping and stopped working.
I dug out the manual and tried to reset it. It wouldn’t even display the diagnostic screen. Another piece of shit product. I am getting sick of American companies screwing customers!!!!! That make 2 different weather stations I have tried and they BOTH CRAPPED OUT!!!!!
Now I don’t even have a thermometer. I have to order one.
The bleep with a complete weather station!!!!
Our camping has made me further believe that our climate has changed.
I’ve camped so many times in areas that are either very green or heavily forested. And it’s so very noticeable how much slower those green/forested areas slowly warm up even in the heart of summer.
So, how much of the landmasses over the past 200 years have been changed from that to a mixture of darker heat absorbing pavement or cities with heat retaining development. So much more heat is being re-added into the system.
Just this alone is enough, I believe, to have warmed the earth a little.
But then, throw in the increase in atmospheric gasses that retain the heat even further and well ……..
We’re going to get colder the current weeks but that’s to be expected. The planet is tilted at 23.5 degrees and that’s always going to give it time to produce some cold during half its orbit.
But don’t let that take away from the magnitude of the current December warmth country-wide or the magnitude of what burned in Canada this summer or the magnitude of what happened in Ft Lauderdale one spring day this year with the rainfall it got blowing away anything it had seen during its record keeping. And if I took the time, this paragraph for what happened just this year probably could take up 3 pages. 🙂
the ocean currents are already slowing down, if they shut down, we are talking ecological collapse, North American continent going on fire while Europe goes colder. We actually already are on the cusp of a mass extinction event. We are at the mathematical tipping point of such an event. With that said we actually have more forest now than we did 100 years ago here in the United States. In many respects the USA has done good in alot of ways but we need to get it even better while also getting the rest of the world on board. I very much suggest people to watch “Life on our planet on Netflix, it is very good. If I was teaching a science class, in middle school or high school, I would show it.
I’ll watch it. Thank you Matt.
And Tom that makes perfect sense. That is similar to my views on skiing starting at Christmas break and continuing into late winter early spring.
I’m not trained in meteorology nor am I trained in environmental science. But I pay attention to details. It’s been obvious that are seasons have been shifting for years now and that winter got the short stick
That’s good news Rainshine! 🙂
TK says SNOWSTORM on January 13! 😉
Only because it’s MLK JR weekend. 😉
Good one TK. 🙂
That’s a good one , me like TK
I’m re listening to Harvey’s presentation while my granddaughter rides.
At about the 26:00 minute mark, Harvey discusses folks mentioning an “old fashioned New England winter.” He said it has been a long time since we have had one. And he’s absolutely right. I believe this folks who are disappointed with lack of snow are remembering what they once knew.
I’m not as disappointed that we don’t have snow or as discouraged by these constant rain days as I am terrified by the very obvious damage we are creating. And that we are denying it exists ….along political party lines no less.
I can show a picture of a reef that my Dad went to back in the early 80s vs what it looks like now.
Rainshine. I am beyond happy for you. What wonderful news that your husband is on his way home. And may he home by now. Thank you very much for letting us know.
NOTE: The temperature sensor at LWM is very wrong.
It’s not 53 there. Take off about 7 or 8 degrees for the correct reading.
What is LWM?
Lawrence MA. The temp sensor is reading 53. It’s 45 there.
Ahh. Thank you
I see that it said 54. Now 39 which according to wunder stations in area is correct. So weird. Wonder if something producing heat was near the sensor. It’s off for 25-20 minute span.
Not sure. The LWM sensor has been wonky off and on (mostly on) for several years now.
I always double check / verify that one when I’m looking regional/local.
Odd
I want to thank everyone for sharing views on a very important topic that is certainly related to weather. Matt, I’m glad you are here as you are heavily invested and trained in this field.
AO: Trending neutral / negative. Polar jet has been WAY to the north in Canada – hence the very mild December in the US when combined with the other factors I have mentioned.
Also I feel it necessary to remind readers that the pattern change upcoming is GRADUAL, not SUDDEN. It is the western US that may actually end up colder sooner. CPC confirms this with a large area of below normal temps in the western half of the US, mostly “normal” Southeast and still mild Northeast as we head through the first 10 days of January.
MJO: No changes to my thinking here. Phases 2 & 3, then weakening and “in the circle” for a while. Re-emergence of a more prominent MJO in phase 6 and 7 toward mid January. A more pronounced MJO after that would drift into phase 8. Wicked speculation at this point but the second half of January may be a very interesting time for SNE winter weather. 🙂
And if you should see any posts out there cancelling winter because “the models” have backed off on the idea of SSW and PV split. Yeah, one model’s ensembles look less “excited” about it. Not to mention, an event like that is not the final say in a pattern change. I’ve already outlined other reasons. A smart person will not ignore these. 😉
If I sound like a recording, it’s because it’s on purpose. There are no surprises and no changes. So there you have it for now.
I am heading out for the evening. I’ll be back with tomorrow morning’s update .. the final one of 2023!
P.S. .. for fans of the Rose Parade. Don’t bother recording / watching it on ABC/ESPN, the only network showing it. It’ll be a commercial filled affair with so-so announcing.
Go to the KTLA web page to see a live stream or free replays with real commentary and you won’t miss a single thing. I’m a fan of this event and I have an annual tradition of watching it with my mother. This year it’ll be with dinner in her kitchen on New Year’s Day (early evening). 🙂
https://ktla.com/news/rose-parade/2024-rose-parade-how-to-watch-on-tv-and-streaming-online/
A bit of sun and blue sky peaking through to the west at the barn in sutton. Lots of blue sky to east. If I have my direction right since in not as familiar with this location
Don’t wish to play devil’s advocate, but we have had two `classic’ winters fairly recently, along with several other notable periods of sustained cold. Going backwards in time, I’m talking about late February to mid March 2019, late December to mid January 2017-2018, a long stretch in 2015 – from late January to mid March – and a long stretch in 2011 – from early January through late February.
[Just so you know, I do NOT include any brief outbreaks of cold as sustained. For instance, this February’s weirdly anomalous (and record-breaking) cold was so fleeting in nature that I remember people saying that Sunday (after the cold had hit us ever so briefly Friday through Saturday) “where the hell did the cold go?” By Sunday it was in the mid 40s!]
Nevertheless, we’ve had precious little cold in December for quite some time (with a few exceptions and brief spurts here and there). We’ve had little sustained cold beyond the periods mentioned. We’ve had many more periods of sustained mild (THE most noticeable feature of this winter thus far, and last winter) than cold throughout nearly every winter this century, except the long stretches mentioned above plus ones in 2003 and 2004.
When we speak of climate change it’s not from one year to the next, or one decade to the next, or major changes on average in temperature. It’s a trend line, which is observable and palpable to those who observe nature and are in tune with it day in and day out. I’ve observed subtle changes, for example, such as the gradual movement of summer insects northward to places they didn’t inhabit before, including parts of Northern Vermont and Southern Quebec.
You have not watched Harvey’s presentation? Or you believe he is incorrect?
He was very careful to say that warming doesn’t mean we won’t have classic winters but that they are single or maybe double events as Joshua said and not the norm No one can argue that we didn’t have consistent snow north of here for skiing in the 60s into 70s. And no one can argue that ski areas north of here struggled with consistency until artificial isl snow making was developed. Even now with artificial snow, the temps are melting it.
See my comment to SClarke below.
Social media nuts are really good sources.
Meant to say are not. They drive me nuts and as hard as I try to get away, they are everywhere. I’ve seen others say the same about it never snowing on Christmas and of course it does.
Well said Joshua
It might have been the snowiest 30 years, but look at the extremes during that time frame. We are seeing more extremes, Very low or very snowy. Its also about long term snow cover which has greatly decreased. Now you always had some extreme years in the overall. You might have a 10 year period that you had 60 to 70% of it being above and another decade 60-70% below but there were alot of in between seasons. You might have a storm that happens and a week later even in the dead of winter its gone. 2015 we had 8 weeks of snow on the ground but thats because there was a storm every 4 to 5 days with a bunch of snow each one of those storms. Having long periods of favorable patterns for snow retention and snow storms vs a week of favorable, then not and then it is again. Or not a good snow pattern, then all of a sudden for a small piece of the winter being favorable while the rest is not. Its about the extremes not so much above or below. Climate models have actually been extremely correct so far, way better than your normal weather forecasting models for weekly, monthly and seasonal forecasting. They predicted that increase of snow for the Boston Area but soon that will go away.
What I feel is different about winters now is the lack of “persistence” of the snow. In the dark and distant past, I grew up near Albany, NY. I clearly remember observing the layers upon layers of snow exposed by the snow plows. Then I spent four years in Potsdam, NY, and that was a whole different story.
The last time I remember seeing such a snow pack was the second half of the 2014-5 winter. Maybe it’s just a trick of my memory.
I agree. Harvey discussed that as well. I can’t quote him but the gist was we get snow and then we get weather that takes it away.
Agree with SClarke on this. I have a friend from Albany, NY and she says the same. She doesn’t remember huge snowstorms during the 60s, 70s and 80s. But she recalls, as do her friends who still live there, steady snows, ice and a rather persistent feel of winter which lasted for months.
My sister has lived in Vermont for 20 years, and during this fairly brief period of time she has seen ski businesses fail, others that are about to fail. Her husband is an avid skier and speaks to the locals all the time. The problem is NOT that they don’t get snow. It’s that it very often melts away almost as fast as it came down. the so-called January thaw is longer and occurs in December and often multiple times in January and February. It’s noticeable for sure. Even my friends in Quebec City tell me that the issue is not lack of snow. They get plenty of that. It’s that it’s there are more frequent and longer periods of thaw. Heck, this year’s situation in the Alps is very unusual. A ton of snow fell early in the month, followed by not a short period of thaw (which would be normal) but a protracted period that persists to this day, which has caused massive flooding.
When I say ice in the past I do not mean ice storms. I mean thick, skatable ice on ponds an lakes, often for months in a row in places like Albany and vicinity, or Quebec City for that matter.
I also remember this from Needham, Massachusetts in the early 70s, every year we lived there. We didn’t get big snowstorms. But we had ice on the pond and skated there quite a bit between December and March.
I always remember when I was in HS late 80’s there was always pond hockey in the winters .
I lived a short walk from a pond/lake. It was a mile around it on the road. We were on the lake every winter. When there was a lot of snow, the town snow plows would drive onto it and clear off the area that had lights for night skating.
This is echoed by everyone I know in those areas. My brother in NH. Mac’s cousin with a ski camp in Stowe. My uncle and family with a ski camp in fryeburg. In addition ponds and lakes are not freezing steadily. And there are exceptions. But they are not close to the norm