Monday January 1 2024 Forecast (7:40AM)

102 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 1-5)

Happy 2024! We’ll start the year with a seasonably chilly day, lots of clouds, and a chance of a passing snow flurry as a disturbance goes through the area and low pressure develops offshore, that will then move away. High pressure brings dry and seasonably chilly weather Tuesday and Wednesday. Thursday, a quick-moving low pressure area moving out to our southeast, moving out to sea, and a cold front swinging through from the northwest combine to bring a few insignificant rain and snow showers to the region. High pressure returns with fair and chilly weather Friday.

TODAY: Clouds break for sun at times. A passing light snow flurry possible. Highs 35-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 21-28. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 23-30. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 21-28. Wind N under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain and snow showers. Highs 36-43. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 6-10)

Potential storms to impact the region January 7 and 10. Early leaning on the first one is a colder storm, but weaker than modeled and energy stretched with a light to moderate snow/mix event, and very early idea on the other is a Great Lakes system with our region on the milder side of that system.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 11-15)

Watching the January 13-14 window for a potential winter storm impact.

102 thoughts on “Monday January 1 2024 Forecast (7:40AM)”

  5. Thanks TK
    Happy New Year Everyone!!! The first day of the year and the time to make weather predictions for the year. TK and everyone else I look forward to reading years.
    No blockbuster storms(12 plus inches over a majority of SNE) this winter. There will be 2-3 moderate snowfall events (4-8 6-12 inches) Snowfall totals at the reporting stations will range between 20-30 inches for the winter. The window where most of that snow will fall is the second week of January through the middle of February. Early March will have a minor snowfall event of 1-3 2-4 inches. That will mark the end of accumulating snow for the winter of 2023-2024
    Spring will feature swings in the temperatures between mild and cool through April. When the calendar turns to May we will have consistent warmth. The first 90 degree heat will arrive a week prior to Memorial Day. Rainfall will be near normal. The first 90 degree heat will arrive a week prior to Memorial Day. Rainfall for spring will be near normal.
    For Summer the heat will be on! 20-30 90 degree or higher days for the reporting stations. The summer will feature below normal rainfall and drought is going to happen over SNE. Thunderstorm days will be below normal. Speaking of drought the Hurricane drought for SNE will continue for another year.
    For Fall the warmth will continue for the first month. The first shot of cool crisp autumn weather will arrive prior to Halloween. It is at that time the first frost hard freeze of the season will happen for the interior. Boston will see its first frost middle of November.
    The first flakes will happen in early December and sadly will be dreaming of a White Christmas once again.

      1. Thanks Vicki. It will be interesting when December 31st comes how many of the predictions that we make actually happen.

  6. Happy New Year to our whw family and their families.

    TK, thank you for countless hours making this blog possible.

    My thoughts and prayers are for everyone to have a new year full of love and laughter and good health. Special prayers for rainshine’s husband, weatherbee’s MIL, Matt’s mom, TK’s brother, and Philip as well as those with unnamed struggles. And great appreciation for all of your positive thoughts and prayers for my brother.

  7. Happy New year guys & looking forward to seeing all of the predictions. I’ll just go with below average snow for Boston & no major snowstorm

  9. From Pete last night.

    “ Happy New Year! Welcome to the new pattern, which includes a few flakes Thursday and a potential nor’easter next weekend. Here comes 5 days of hand-wringing & social media hype. Some guidance is all in, some is not. Prob of 6″ or more snow”

    I thought his view on ocean temps in the comment field was interesting too.

    “ I used to think that ocean temps & existing snowpack helped/hurt a storm’s track, but our crazy climate has thrown all of those weather tropes out the window. Anything/everything is on the table now.”

    https://x.com/petenbcboston/status/1741578375251087454?s=46&t=neG9xl79s_BtNQXSGBlqLQ

  10. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Happy New Year to All on WHW and may all health issues be positively resolved for all and family members this year.
    We have nothing if we don’t have our health.

    AS for predictions, I am not much for predictions. I could barely put together a snowfall prediction.

    I think for the rest of this Winter snowfall will be WELL below average and there will be 30+ days of 90 or above this Summer Season. That’s about all I can muster.

    On a different note:
    Wife and I watched Maestro last night. Interesting movie about Leonard Bernstein.
    I never thought of Bradley Cooper as a top notch actor, but I do now. His performance in Maestro was off the charts outstanding!!!!

    1. JPDave…..we saw the movie last week.
      Like most geniuses, Bernstein was an incredibly complicated person. Cooper’s portrayal was so amazing. He literally disappeared into the character.

      1. Indeed he did. I didn’t think Bradley Cooper had it in him.
        That performance was worthy of some sort of award.

  11. Forgot to mention, the signs were there yesterday, but now really there. The 7th system is looking more and more like it will be mostly suppressed to the South!
    THen the next one goes through the Lakes, with various scenarios of redevelopment, so there is still some hope.
    BUT the way things are going this Winter, odd would favor more rain than snow.

    Then TK’s 13-14th system. Well, let’s wait and see.
    Color me skeptical at this point.

    Here is the GFS version on 1/14

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2024010106&fh=330

    24 hour snow

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_024h-imp&rh=2024010106&fh=336&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    When we’re in a rut, We’re in a rut!!!

  13. 2024 predictions, in no particular order …..

    Either Hartford, Providence or Logan will record an 80F or 81F dew point this summer.

    El Niño affected, below average hurricane season

    Tonga’s effect slightly waning, but still impactful, so expecting more excessive rainfall events. 1 or 2 region wide and a handful localized.

    One of these Tonga enhanced events occurs in Feb or March with excessive snowfall that breaks records in New England.

    I expect the extreme weather to continue. A just completed example is what the whole US just experienced for December 2023 temps, unreal.

  14. As a teacher, after December break through to February break, I appreciate any week I can look at and be reasonably assured we have a chance to get all the school days in. Last year was about as concern free as I’ve experienced.

    So, it’s nice to sit here today pretty confident that Tues-Friday of this week are good to go, weather-wise.

  15. If next weekend’s system is weaker and suppressed, I do see some signals that the high’s position north northeast of Maine may still offer a chance at some wind component off the ocean for ocean effect. Certainly wouldn’t make up all the synoptic snow missing, but may not leave us with a full miss scenario.

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=850wh&rh=2024010100&fh=162&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    For example from the 00z euro.

    Main synoptic snow missing but still a light easterly 850 mb flow of the ocean.

    1. here is the Euro 10:1 snow in a super suppressed system
      for the 7th:

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2024010100&fh=192&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

      so far 12Z GFS looks really suppressed as well.

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2024010112&fh=150&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

      Kuchera Snow

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2024010112&fh=162&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

      There ya go!! Gone baby Gone!!!! No Surprise there. FIGURES!!!! All the models do is TEASE!!!!

      Canadian, not so suppressed.

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2024010112&fh=144&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

      Kuchera

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2024010112&fh=144&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

      SO WHICH IS IT???????????????

      Not for nothing, but all the inititial signals on this system
      were for a suppressed system, then for a few days it looked like a hit. Now we’re back to suppressed which is where it is
      LIKELY to be.

  17. Not that it will actually play out this way, but this can only mean the follow up warmer event maintains it consistency with a mild outcome.

  18. Just don’t have it snowing in Maryland on Sunday at 4:25pm when my Cowboys need to beat the Commanders to win the NFC East and get the two seed in the playoffs.

    1. Cowboys received 2 gifts this weekend, the Eagles and Brad Allen, so they can’t foul this up now, could they ?? Good luck to them JJ !!

  19. Good advice from Meteorologist Steve DiMartino

    Staying true to my rule, I wouldn’t trust any details until we get under 120 hours in shortwave analysis and evolution. Patience.

    1. I agree with his overall theme, but with these model performances, I’d take it down to 36 hrs 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

  20. In all seriousness on that possible 2nd system.

    982 mb up the Ohio valley, just peaked at the projected 500 mb jet.

    That has severe weather threat potential for the southeast US if that exact simulation comes to pass, so let’s hope that changes too.

  21. Tom Cowboys can’t mess this up. You get the two seed. If you win wild card weekend you get the divisional round of the playoffs at home. Cowboys have won 16 straight at home.

  22. I’m still where I was a couple of weeks ago … nothing til the 2nd half of January at least. There are chances before that but they have an OTS or too far to the east look to them. Some cold air is coming but it is happening slowly. As TK and others have pointed out. I was thinking about a more major event in the last week of January as part of my snowfall prediction. Less confident now. Maybe more minor events will be the makeup for this winter.

    Been wondering a little about hurricanes this summer and speculating that we might witness one more closely than I care for.

    So much for the guesswork. Trying to outsmart Mother Nature is rarely a winning proposition.

  24. I had an early morning call. My brothers body is shutting down. He is being moved to hospice care. I can’t thank you all enough for your well wishes and prayers. You are a very special comfort.

  25. I am very sorry to hear that Vicki. Thoughts and prayers are with you and your family during this time.

    1. Thank you all. He has struggled emotionally and physically since the loss of his wife. And has often said he just wants to be with her. His heart was broken.

  26. Appears 12z GFS op run is on an island all by itself.

    Even its ensemble run GEFS is further north.

    If I’m correct, the 12z Canadian, UkMet and now Euro all have a very different outcome.

    2. Thank you, Philip

      I hope you are doing well also. Sure brightens the day when I see your name pop up here.

  31. Thank you TK!

    Vicki, so very sorry to read the news about your brother. Certainly not the way to start a new year. My prayers are with you.

  32. 12z op runs. 3 models, 3 different solutions. That tells you we don’t have an answer.

    My leaning above still remains my most valid idea.

  33. Going to be a lot of below normal temps in the US the next 2 weeks. Exception: East Coast especially Northeast.

    El Nino anybody? 😉

      1. Sometimes El Nino winters are excellent for snow lovers. But the stronger ones tend to be less so a bit more often.

  35. New Weather Station installed.

    Took some doing to set it up correctly. The instruction manual
    might as well have been written in Greek. Much interpretation required. I’m no dummie and it still took me an hour to finally figure out how to toggle easily between outdoor temperature and dew point. The station would be USELESS without the dew point! I even wrote a scathing email to their support department before I finally figured out and had to rescind my email. 🙂

    They try to accomplish everything with just a few buttons. NOT they way I would design it!!!!! I’d use the KISS principal.
    for those not familiar with that term it means KEEEP IT SIMPLE STUPID! These people over complicated the whole damn thing. They’re ALL like that, not matter which manufacturer is chosen.

    Sorry, end of my New Years Rant!!!!

    If you haven’t figured it out yet, This unit is for my wife and she needs simple access to it without going through hoops!

    My old weather station is still functioning via the mobile app as it still transmits to the Davis Instruments server.

    The new unit was to display the console unit that my wife uses all the time. 🙂

  36. Thanks, TK!

    Happy 2024 to all!

    Vicki: Please know of my continued prayers for your brother’s peace and the consolation for you and your family.

  37. TK’s partially but not nearly completely scientific predictions for the weather of 2024 in southeastern New England…

    We’ll see the predicted transition from the not-surprising mild & essentially snowless December to an eventually cold but dry pattern for February by going through a pretty active January. While not every storm will make JPD happy, a few very well may. The majority of Boston’s snowfall for the season takes place this month.

    A secondary snowy surge ends the winter in March as we transition out of the pattern that gives the cold/dry February during the initial weakening of El Nino. This will complete a “winter” where we have well below snow in December, above normal snow in January, below normal snow in February, and above normal snow in March. See-saw.

    April: Mild and wet month – feels like spring right on time.

    May sees another bout of blocking that’s strong enough that we’re cool and dry for a good portion of the month, until the pattern breaks down and our first surge of pre-summer heat arrives, briefly, around my birthday.

    Summer will be hotter than last year, which won’t be hard to do since 90s (especially near the coast / Boston) were hard to come by and we never got into any sustained heat. We’ll have a couple heatwaves this summer though, but in between some significant surges of Canadian cool/dry weather will visit. Best thunderstorm chances will occur on air mass changes, including a couple genuine regionwide squall lines – something we haven’t had much in the last couple decades. Precipitation-wise, summer will be have many more dry days but still be wetter than normal because of the HTE helping to produce some larger than typical rainfall events – somewhat like last year, just not as frequently.

    Number of 90 degree days at Boston: 11. 1 in May, 2 in June, 4 in July, 3 in August, 1 in September.

    No hurricane landfall in New England, yet again, but we will have 2 or 3 tropical storms visit the region between mid August and mid September.

    Classic autumn in New England. Lots of cool shots, but nice warm-ups between. Drier than average late September through mid November.

    Neutral ENSO contributes to a seasonable to cold late November and December with much more early season snowfall than we have seen in the past several years. People may be able to ice skate on shallow ponds by the winter solstice.

    There you have it…

  46. Agree with JP Dave on instituting a Congressional ban on lakes cutters, or perhaps an executive order.

  47. Eric says third slowest start for snow and latest ice since 1885 on houghtons pond base of blue hill.

  48. With more rain and wind in the forecast this week, the Dutch are busy pretty much everywhere trying to hold back the water. This picture is from a town called Volendam: https://cdn.nos.nl/image/2024/01/01/1039974/1920x1080a.jpg

    Some drying out should occur by the weekend when it gets a bit cooler and drier. But that may not last very long, as the long-range chances of a return to periodic rain and mild temps are increasing.

  50. Thanks, TK, and Happy New Year.

    Vicki, I’m so sorry about this development with your brother. Praying for much peace and comfort for you both.

  52. 00z op Canadian for 1-7 storm threat: Further N with track, snowiest inland, more rain involved coast.
    00z op GFS for 1-7 storm threat: Still further S with track, but enough for a moderate to heavy snowfall but more focused south of I-90 with less to the north.

    Obviously, this solutions are considerably different for sensible weather. Also obviously, it’s still several days away. The thing now is to just monitor the trends and pay attention to ensembles (basically the typical method).

    I won’t see the ECMWF until the morning. I suspect it’ll be a solution between the other two on the next run.

    1. Lots of frost here! Reminds me of November with the bare ground & scattered brown leaves.

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