DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 2-6)
Now that we’re into the second month of meteorological winter, it’s time to look ahead to see if the pattern transition prognosticated in the winter outlook back in November has any signs of getting underway. It won’t take long to determine that the answer is yes. After a mild and essentially snowless December (or top 5 least-snowy on record for much of the region), we’re going to see an active pattern start to bring some snow chances, the start of the first of these being on the ending time border of this 5-day outlook. But before we get to that, it’s time to look at the more immediate future. First, we have high pressure to provide a bright, dry, seasonably chilly day today. A weak disturbance will swing across northern New England and a little extension of a low pressure trough will send a batch of clouds through the region during the first half of the day on Wednesday. I previously had a snow shower threat in the forecast from this feature, but feel the need to remove it as it seems like the air will simply be too dry. Thursday, a progressive upper trough swings through the East Coast region. This system actually has 2 parts, a southern jet stream trough that will ignite low pressure offshore, well to our southeast, that will move quickly out to sea. That feature may bring a touch of light rain to the South Coast, if anything. A northern jet stream disturbance will push a cold front through our region and this may bring a rain or snow shower to a few locations, but nothing significant. Another area of high pressure builds in on Friday with fair, seasonably chilly weather. This high keeps it dry and chilly on Saturday, but this day will feature sun starting to fade behind increasing clouds in advance of a more potent El Nino driven southern jet stream storm system. We may see snow arriving from this system as early as Saturday evening…
TODAY: Unlimited sun. Highs 34-41. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clear evening. Some clouds overnight. Lows 18-25. Wind W under 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Some clouds morning, especially north of I-90, otherwise more sun. Highs 37-44. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 22-29. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain and snow showers through early afternoon, then partial sun. Highs 36-43. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 17-24. Wind N under 10 MPH.
SATURDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Chance of snow at night. Highs 33-40. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 7-11)
Winter storm threat to start the period on January 7. At forecast day 6 there is still a lot of uncertainty to clarify in terms of the exact track of low pressure, precipitation intensity and orientation, as well as type, though snow is favored over rain at this point for much of the region. Current leaning is a driving upper trough that is not too amplified and a fairly progressive low center passing south of New England with a cold high to the north, and a widespread snowfall with higher odds of heavier snowfall to the south and lighter to the north. Please note this isn’t even close to a final call and there are several days left to fine tune the system’s impacts. Post-storm return to dry weather January 8, but next system brings precipitation chances right back to the region later January 9 into January 10 before dry weather returns behind that system at the end of the period.
DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 12-16)
Active pattern into mid month with another window of opportunity for storminess focused on January 12-14. No major temperature anomalies indicated.
Continued positive and supportive thoughts for all who need it today.
I’ll be limited on my check-in times during work as we’re busy and short staffed (who isn’t these days?) and lots of post-holiday tidy-up to do at home, but I’ll try to get back on to offer some updated ideas on the weather later today if I can force myself to take a break.
For now, as you read above, I favor a slightly south, cold scenario for Sunday. I can add in I still feel a Lakes system is the follow-up (but in this pattern it may not mean ALL rain), and a winter storm signal sits in the January 12-14 time window.
Oh yes, one other thing for now. I’m going to steal info (not really stealing, credit goes to Weather Guide Calendar) for quizzes or facts now and then to add to the fun and education aspect of the comments section.
Today I have one. The National Weather Service issues a High Wind Warning if sustained winds over 40 MPH will last over an hour (50 MPH is the criteria for higher elevations), and/or if wind gusts over 58 MPH (75 MPH higher elevations) are expected.
In 2022, which NWS office issued the most warnings?
A. Midland TX
B. Cheyenne WY
C. Chicago IL
D. Great Falls MT
E. Albuquerque NM
C. Chicago
B, by a landslide.
Thanks TK. I’ll go with D.
I’ll go with E.
Thanks TK !
I’ll try B.
Thanks TK.
I’ll go with D as well. Flying home from NC today.
Thank you Tk
Thanks TK
D
Thanks TK – I like D. Looking forward to how all of this develops the next few days
This day in weather history goes back to 1987 with snow, wind, and coastal flooding.
https://twitter.com/NWSBoston/status/1742168866695020994
Good morning and thank you TK,
Ocean Temperature at Boston Buoy is currently 44.2
Certainly getting there. 🙂
I think the Euro has the best depiction of Sunday’s System
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&rh=2024010200&fh=132
Suppressed some and elongated as suggested by TK previously.
Also as suggested by TK, a light to moderate event.
Somewhere in the 2-4 or 3-6 inch range. Perhaps on a stretch 4-8. Too early at this point to nail that down.
In short, NOT a biggie, but for this season I’ll happily take it.
Now, the bummer part….2 days later it is ALL likely to by wiped out by a LAKES CUTTER!!!!!!
Let us hope for some stubborn cold air in place to get a slug of up front snow. We shall see. Strangers things have happened.
Thanks Tk A
I know all the eyes are on Sunday’s system, rightfully so.
At least the GFS/Euro have a sub 980 mb low 3-5 days behind that one.
Going to keep half an eye on that one too.
Impressive 850 mb low level jet.
Giving me flashbacks to the system 2-3 weeks ago for possible similar sensible weather outcomes.
Thank you, TK
I’ll go with B
My nephew called around 6:00. My brother passed away this morning. He has had a truly horrific two years and has often said since his wife passed two summers ago that he just wanted to be with her. I had the sense when he asked his son to call both his sister in law and me yesterday and hold the phone to his ear so he could say he loves us that he was saying goodbye.
He is at peace and with his beloved wife. ❤️
Oh I’m so sorry to hear Vicki, love and good thoughts to you and your family
My condolences Vicki to you and your family.
I am so sorry for you loss. Please accept my deepest sympathy and condolences.
Vicki I am sorry for your loss
Vicki, I’m so sorry to hear this. So sorry for your loss and condolences to you and your family
I am so very sorry to hear this Vicki. Please know you and your family are in my thoughts and prayers. Sending big hugs your way.
Vicki, so sorry to hear this!
I am so sorry Vicki !!
Vicki sending you love and prayers. I am thankful you got to hear his voice again a few days ago. He will always be with you. ❤️
Phew. You got the tears flowing again but in a special way. Thank you !
Thank you, All, so very much…for your care and prayers for so,long. You are a very special comfort.
Vicki, I am so sorry to hear this. My thoughts and prayers are with you and your family.
Sending my condolences to you, Vicki.
I am sorry to read this Vicki. May he rest in peace.
Thank you TK!
Vicki I just saw the post and I’m very sorry for your loss.
I know he’s at peace and that will bring some comfort but it’s so hard to lose somebody. My thoughts are with you and all family and friends.
Thank you, TK!
Oh and TK….for your quiz….my brothers name is Hank but since he is a junior we always called him Butch. It’s why I went with B ❤️
I should add…if it isn’t B, you might want to say it is anyway 😉
That would be his sense of humor speaking
Vicki – I’m sending peace and hugs your way.
Hi Vicki:
I am so sorry about your brother’s passing. As difficult as this is, know and be consoled that he is at peace, without pain, reunited with his wife for eternity.
Sending you my deepest sympathy, prayers, support and love.
Condolences to you Vicki. We always think we are prepared, but when it actually occurs, it’s so terribly emotional.
He is no longer suffering so let his memory be a blessing.
Starting to think this will be a long week of hype about the snow on Sunday. First snow of the year etc should fan the flames even more. Already heard sports radio treating it like a paralyzing mega storm.
Quiz answer at noon.
I think SAK provided it. 🙂
12z GFS with a solid 6-12 snow event for a good chunk of SNE for Sunday
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2024010212&fh=132&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
12Z GFS for Sunday
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2024010212&fh=123&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
Kuchera Snow
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2024010212&fh=138&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
12z CMC a little less but still a solid snow event for Sunday for most of SNE
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2024010212&fh=132&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
12Z ICON
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/icon/2024010212/icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_41.png
Snowfall map not available yet
Thanks TK.
I’ll take the 2nd storm, here’s some wind projections.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2024010212&fh=186&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2024010212&fh=189&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
850 and 925 mb low level jet
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=850wh&rh=2024010212&fh=189&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=925wh&rh=2024010212&fh=189&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
The Sunday storm has Ryan Hanrahan’s attention
https://twitter.com/ryanhanrahan/status/1742220341764665449
Thank you, TK. I hope your day is going well.
I hope it snows a lot for our snow lovers/enthusiasts Sunday.
However, I like snow that once it falls, hangs around for a little while. I’m not talking 3 weeks, can we keep it for 1 week ??????
That follow up system, should it play out as modeled, is kind of depressing.
Poof goes the snow.
It’s nice not having to worry about snow removal any longer , could care less what it does .
Vicki, I am so sorry to hear about your brother’s passing. The only consolation is that he’s no longer suffering, and, as you said, he’s with his beloved wife.
Thanks, TK.
So sorry for your loss Vicki. Thoughts and prayers are with you and your family.
Vicki – I have not looked at WHW until just now.
I am so sorry about your brother. There are tears in my eyes for you and your family. Thoughts and prayers for you and your family. >3. Hope that came out as a heart. In any case, I am sending love your way.
And to all those who are not well or who have family that are ill I send thoughts and prayers. Thank you for your good wishes.
Definitely B.
Here are the numbers for each courtesy SAK.
Number of high wind warnings 2022.
67 Cheyenne
52 Midland
38 Great Falls
30 Albuquerque
2 Chicago
12Z UKMET
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmet&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2024010212&fh=120&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
10:1 Snow
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2024010212&fh=144&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=sn10_acc-imp&m=ukmet
Note / Reminder:
GFS ensemble mean is weaker and further south than the op run.
Remember not to focus on op runs only. We’re still at a time range when track error can be quite large.
Thanks TK.
Vicki, so sorry to hear about your brother. My thoughts and prayers are with you.
Heard one TV met today talk to the potential Sunday storm as one of “historic proportions.” Me thinks not.
What? A local MET? What is that person looking at?????
Nothing we have seen so far. 🙂
WBZ. I think the met tried to walk it back later on.
On another note, I have a $10 bet on when we will see the first TV snow map with projected accumulations. (Of course, i am not convinced of a snow event yet. I might be more convinced if it were Friday AM.)
🙁
This is not good when the threat is 5+ days away.
My guess is inexperienced and excited, but need to keep the latter reeled in on air.
Just watched on line forecast on ch. 4 and he mentioned prolonged, powerful and impactful snow with high winds etc. there was no snow map yet but he certainly was laying it on thick.
Sometimes this is driven by the news director too, so I’m going to refrain from faulting the ocm. Sadly, the hype train drives media in general and the tv folks get caught up in it because of how much of the news is scripted. I am sure many of them cringe when wording it the way they’re asked to.
If it was the deep south but not here in New England.
Do I have the timing right …. pre-dawn through midday or so Sunday?
Must have school Monday !!
June 12th !!!!!!!!!! 🙂
Even if this was on Monday I don’t see anything that would stop schools. But stranger things have happened…0
Indeed they have.
I’ve enjoyed a couple of rain days in 20 years. 🙂
3” has stopped schools in recent years, especially if it’s snowing at the start of the day
Right there with you, Tom. Beach chair goes in 14 June at 0800.
🙂 🙂 🙂
Looking at models, this looks like a coastal front of 30s may go inland a bit for a while, but I feel like its showing a solid crash into the mid 20s once the wind backs from E-NE to N.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sfct-imp&rh=2024010212&fh=120&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sfct-imp&rh=2024010212&fh=126&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
I like the temp crashes when the storm starts to pull away and the coastal front collapses.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sfct-imp&rh=2024010212&fh=132&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
And down to the Cape Cod Bridges.
snow projection in extreme SE mass overdone, at least on the Euro
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2024010212&fh=192&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
2nd storm continues to show, for now, as potentially quite impactful.
Joshua:
I just want you to know that I took the bait last night and listened to the BBC’s Radio 4 Shipping Forecasts. Not all five hours mind you.
About 30 seconds in, all I could think of was Monty Python’s Flying Circus. I got to laughing and spent the next hour looking up and enjoying old Python sketches on YouTube.
Thanks for making my day! It was a nice way to spend New Year’s Night. The Rose and Sugar Bowls weren’t bad either! 🙂
Vicki, so sorry for your loss.
Man, I thought this place would be lit up like a xmas tree with the first real prospect of winters arrival. After last season, I’ll take a 2-4 / 3-6” event! Although something tells me we get >6”
Anything greater than 6 inches in a set-up like this is probably going to be confined to a relatively small area versus regionwide.
The reasons…
-A storm track to the south would be colder but the moisture would support 6+ in a narrow area in the region near to south of I-90.
-A storm track closer to the coast is going to produce a stronger onshore flow with relatively warm water destroying the accumulation in eastern areas and the closer storm track likely meaning a wetter snow for areas to the south even if they didn’t mix with and/or turn to rain.
-Elongated nature west-east keeps the precipitation shield a little more narrow in terms of its latitudinal coverage.
Quik thoughts on the wx!
Today is a Halcyon day. It could be a bit colder for a perfect one. But dry, bright, cold, calm.
Tomorrow won’t be as tranquil because of the disturbance moving by to our north and a tighter pressure gradient. So there’ll be a breeze, but it won’t be that strong, so still a very nice early winter day.
The Thursday system: No changes. 2 disturbances stay far apart. No phase. No chance. Most of the southern moisture stays offshore. Most of the northern moisture, what little there is of it, misses to the north. Hence the forecast I have.
Friday is cold air delivery day. Make way for the truck that will cause a bit of a wind especially in the morning behind Thursday night’s cold frontal passage.
Of course the jury isn’t quite back in the courtroom regarding the weekend storm threat. I’m pretty certain we get impacted, not missed. The chance of a complete miss at this point is minimal. So from here on we watch the guidance and its trends, and as I mentioned earlier, don’t worry too much about details of operational runs until we get down to T minus 48 hours. Ensembles give you a better overall picture and you can look at each model’s ensemble to get an idea of the trend on it.
The main energy for this system will be fully over land by the time the data is gathered for the 06z Wednesday model runs. If there is going to be a notable shift in the overall guidance, it should be there, and at that point we’ll start to look for consistency run to run and agreement between models. Nothing really different from the typical approach is needed. 🙂
Vicki, my most sincere condolences to you and your family.
My heartfelt thanks to this wonderful WHW family for your kind words.
Since my brother lived for skiing and Dr S and arod and SC were all here today, I’m absolutely in the snow camp for Sunday. It’s also my mom’s angel day though and she was not a snow fan. But Let’s get it done.
I’m in for 9 inches here
Bless you all for your kindness. You helped to make my day a lot easier ❤️
EPS mean is further south than the ECMWF op run.
GFS is similar as noted earlier.
While it’s too early to put #’s on it from a forecast standpoint, the model guidance is generally in agreement on a moderate snowfall for a good portion of the region several days in advance.
Thanks TK! Moderate by NE standards, and mine, is in the 6-10” range
I have seen some TV hype as I stated above and then watched a more reserved TV met who simply said the event favors snow over rain right now, similar to TK’s comment. I think some of the hype does come from news directors but also just because it’s the first event of any significance in the season. It gives the news stations something to talk about.
Well that’s the whole thing. The ND’s have been itching for it. They run all the promos for their storm coverage and you gotta admit people don’t get as hyped up about windy rainstorms as they do about snow. Something about frozen water turns people’s minds in a different direction and they know it and take advantage of it.
The above reminds me of a quote from the holiday classic: “You’d desert Professor Hinckle for some stupid .. frozen .. water?!”
Love that quote. I do not recognize the movie source
It comes from none other than Frosty The Snowman. 🙂
Today was a spectacular winter day. As TK said, a couple of degrees colder would have made it perfect. But on a scale from 0 to 10 I give today a 9.
I thought of you today when I was outside for a bit. “Joshua weather” (of course knowing you’d find it more ideal if it were 5 to 10 degrees colder). 🙂
Captain Fantastic, you’ve probably seen this clip many times. It’s Monty Python’s skit on a soccer world cup final between Greece and Germany: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LfduUFF_i1A
and so it beginns
ginormous change with 18z gfs.
More suppressed
JP Dave whatever you do, DON’T look at the 18z op GFS. 😉
Oops … too late. 😛
He’s already written this one off so not to be disappointed
Ah, the old reverse psych method. 😉
Actually, my feeling with this is still a southern track, but not a miss. I’m curious for the better sampled data a couple runs from now. Long way to go.
There will be rain mixed in correct . This may or may not even be a plowable storm for some areas .
It’s 5 days away. Can’t determine any rain/snow lines or accumulations this far out.
Projected temp is 36
Wankum talking a lot about storm going in a flat direction.
Aren’t we 4 full days away in terms of precip onset?
You gotit. We’ll see what the euro and canadian have to say at 0z.
Honestly I have been waiting for this. But remember, it’s the gfs.
Yet another strong gale has hit northwestern Europe. This one is named Henk. It registered 9 on the Beaufort wind scale. Add this to the water issues currently plaguing the Netherlands: https://nos.nl/video/2503568-gevel-komt-los-van-huis-bomen-vallen-op-auto-s-storm-henk-raast-over-nederland
According to Wankum, enjoy the snow while it lasts because a DRAMATIC warm up follows.
His exact words, not mine.
Not gonna say dramatic. Maybe back to the upper 40s or lower 50s in parts of SNE during the next storm passage, but that may also have some stubborn cold air ahead of it. So in this case, I disagree with the description.
Will the snow that we do get stay around? It’ll take a hit. But it’s not the only snow threat we’re going to have this month and for the rest of the winter. We’ll have snowcover in the future. 🙂
He put out a great forecast tonight , no hype said it’s already changed since last night .
Watched Eric tonight and as expected reserved in his commentary. Talked to a more northerly track, a more southerly track, and one in the middle which for the moment he favors.
WBZ, during the past 2 days, has been displaying this timeline when it comes to storm forecasting.
7-8 Days Out: Watching for Patterns & Possibilities in the Forecast.
5-6 Days Out: Forecast is More Consistent; Confidence Increases.
3-4 Days Out: Impacts & Timing of Storm Become More Precise.
1-2 Days Out: Higher Confidence for Timing & Accumulations.
Even though I favor a more southern track, I do like that some of them are putting that outline out there. It’s part of the battle for the reasonable approach to forecasting that is not used by the amateur wishcaster pages which are often looked at instead of legit sources. 🙂 Good job Eric on that one.
Going skiing tomorrow morning with my brother at Wachusett, they been blasting the mountain with man made snow the past few days opening up more terrain so now worth it.
Then heading up to Stowe VT Thursday with my parents going skiing on Friday and heading on back Saturday.
Then I am going to the Patriots game with my Dad. I have never been to a Pats game before. Normal fans can now actually afford tickets. 🙂
Now my thoughts on the Patriots.
1. I have heard a rumor that Jonathan Kraft wanted more control of personal decisions and been getting more involved. This apparently has been part of some of the draft picks we have seen over the past 5 years.
2. I think what the patriots should do in the draft, Pick Nabers or Harrison with their first pick, then get one of the qbs with their second pick. In free agency or trade get a qb in a 2 year deal and a wide reciever for 2 years. Resign KB, Henry and Zeke. The patriots are not as far away from being good again.
What I would like the team to look like next year.
GM: BB but Mayo/Bill O’Brian has say over offense picks.
HC: BB but teaching Mayo even possibly given Mayo pre-season control for one or two games.
AHC: Mayo and Bill O’Brian. ( more behind the scene stuff being given to Mayo)
OC : Bill O’Brian
DC: current situation
QB room: Free agent/trade, Zappe, draft pick ( draft pick follows sucessful qbs like Brady, Mahomes, Rogers of sitting out the majority of their rookie season)
RB. Stephenson, Elliotte, third down back (passing back which this team has been missing since White left)
WR: KB, Douglas, Free agent, Harrison or Nabers, JUJU (get a new wide receiver coach)
TE: Henry, mid round draft pick
OL: get rid of Brown, get rid of Oline coach, get rid of Lowe. Keep the two Andrews, Mafi and get Onwenu back. Then look through free agency and draft for other pieces and depth.
Get a new kicker, two times Pats got a kicker both stunk.
Defense try and keep it together best they can.
OH and this guy gets it. 🙂 https://kingsofbostonsports.com/video-bill-burr-calls-out-spoiled-patriots-fans-for-complaining-about-bill-belichick/?fbclid=IwAR1gqd-kbkdkqDYB30aaZ4uPWrXjx_Fo4c4XSgwAEjkh77HxXZIouIukMOw
Any other coach with Bill’s track record over the past 5 years and questionable player and personnel choices would be fired, no questions asked.
I will be calling for his resignation if we are not in or close to the playoffs next year.
Any coach that broke a QB who had a very promising rookie year should be fired. I will always be a pat’s fan and won’t root against them. I will not watch until he is gone. But it shouldn’t surprise anyone that I am not a fan of anyone who puts others down.
We’ve got tickets to the Sunday game as well. Never been to a “snowbowl” game before. Should be interesting, though I think the bulk of the snow may be over by game time.
Nice, we are 12th row between Endzone and 20 yardline
Good seats. We are in section 120 in the Endzone.
18Z ICON is not suppressed, but worse still. It has RAIN
along the coast.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/icon/2024010218/icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_40.png
With ocean temp at 44, that is certainly a possibility. 🙂
As I said, still waiting on 0Z EUro and Canadian. 🙂
And 36 along the coast
Well, the ICON definitely LESS reliable than the unreliable GFS, so … 🙂
My guys on Saturday into Sunday Pete, JR, Ryan ( he’s been elevated;) , Eric
https://x.com/petenbcboston/status/1742311044029280459?s=46&t=neG9xl79s_BtNQXSGBlqLQ
https://x.com/jreineron7/status/1742308974144413943?s=46&t=neG9xl79s_BtNQXSGBlqLQ
https://x.com/ryanhanrahan/status/1742300081670193355?s=46&t=neG9xl79s_BtNQXSGBlqLQ
https://x.com/ericfisher/status/1742306460229382162?s=46&t=neG9xl79s_BtNQXSGBlqLQ
Nice summary! Pete most bullish, and only met I’ve heard talking about a long duration storm?
Correct whatever falls it’s done Sunday night
Possibility. I noticed that.
Sunday is just the start of what could very well end up being our best winter month in quite some time.
EPS with double digit snows for much of interior SNE thru mid month (1/17). Not too shabby for an ensemble mean. And pattern looks good beyond then thru the second half of the month….
Ryan Maue
@RyanMaue
3h
Winter is just getting started.
Snowfall accumulation (EPS ensemble mean) for 5, 10, and 15 days (total)
Hot pink is 12-inches+
So, in two weeks, everyone will be happy.
https://x.com/RyanMaue/status/1742278584067121199?s=20
Fingers crossed. If angels have any control, my brother will be shaking that snow sifter very hard.
Mike Masco is a meteorologist in the Mid Atlantic. I have truncated his tweet below.
Eric Fisher and Jim Cantore follow
Mike Masco
@MikeMasco
SNOWSTORM POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND.. ONLY A TASTE OF WHAT’S ABOUT TO BEGIN…
Sorry for the delay in posting.. Was in #Aruba over the Christmas break (no snow potential down there lol)
Saturday afternoon – Sunday morning the models really like a sizable/plowable snow event in the interior Mid Atlantic and Northeast. Most of the major cities have been without accumulating snow for nearly 700 days– so this store will feel like a big one!
If you go back a few tweets you’ll see a couple weeks back where I identified a pattern ripe for storms that yes would produce snow events. I do believe this is the trend setter storm that will start a parade of storms over the course of the next 4-6 weeks. This front runner storm will NOT be the biggest of a series of storms.
https://x.com/MikeMasco/status/1742189809496478075?s=20
Thanks mark. Will follow now too
12z EPS (Euro Ensemble Mean) Snowmap looks solid with 6″+ across a good chunk of SNE….
https://x.com/seckhardt/status/1742267959219818823?s=20
Not to change the subject, but this 2023 total rainfall graphic from Florida is ASTONISHING!
Jim Cantore follows
Matt Devitt
@MattDevittWX
HOW CRAZY IS THIS?! ️
Just 100 miles was a difference in *7 feet of rainfall* this year between Naples (30.48″) and Fort Lauderdale (113.61″). A simple drive along Alligator Alley separated the #1 driest year on record with the #1 wettest year on record!
@NWSMiami @winknews @spann
https://x.com/MattDevittWX/status/1741892069226877290?s=20
Yes …… Fort Lauderdale got some insane 24 hr rain total back in March or April. 20+ inches of rain. They beat their all time record over 72 hrs in 24 hrs, as I recall.
And they had other hits too.
One of our guys shared this. Can’t recall who. But wow
Also – I wouldnt give up entirely on the 1/10 event next Wednesday either…..0z Euro tracked the storm from Indianapolis to Detroit, 12z takes it from Buffalo to Montreal. And the ensemble members are all over the place.
Not saying this doesnt end up a mostly rain event for SNE but I think a somewhat colder solution is on the table and wouldnt be surprised if the ski areas made out OK. Not going to have a great idea on this storm until the first storm develops and we have more certainty on what that one is going to do.
Case in point…..
This is the Euro ensemble mean snow forecast for Fabyan, NH in the White Mtns thru next Wed 1/10:
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2024_01/IMG_0481.jpeg.a8b98617d1e9ef4d671cfbcdc00d57b5.jpeg
Notice that EVERY single ensemble member delivers more snow up there with the second storm than the operational run does.
Ensemble mean snow was 15″ while the operational run delivered only 4″. The operational run is on the warmest end of the spectrum.
12z Canadian supporting this idea as well. Looks the cold air in at the start of the storm and spawns a secondary low off the coast. Snow to rain for us and keeps it all snow for NNE…
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2024010212&fh=192&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
looks –> locks
At this range most medium range guidance will try to warm us up too quickly in the upcoming pattern. While I lean heavily toward a main low center tracking to our west, I cannot rule out a stubborn period of cold air damming to complicate at least the start of that system.
On only 4 occasions when Boston has recorded under 1 inch of snowfall through December have they recorded above normal snowfall for the winter. The other 19 times the snowfall for the season ended up below normal (in some cases pretty close to normal though).
What were the big rebound years?
1891-1892: Trace through December, 46.8 for season.
1957-1958: Trace through December, 44.7 for season.
2014-2015: 0.3 through December, 110.6 for season.
2021-2022: 0.4 through December, 54.0 for season.
Will this be the 5th time they go above after such a slow start? Time will tell…
YES.
Not backing down on my 58.4″ prediction for Boston this winter 🙂
I think that’s going to be high in my opinion .
I am confident we get at least one “big” one this year. We are going to have some good blocking set up. Couple that with one of those southern stream, moisture laden storms that are classic “El Nino” and you can end up with a third of that seasonal total in one shot.
It’s really not that hard to get there if you have a favorable pattern even just for 4-6 weeks. Been so long since we were entering a favorable winter pattern that it is hard to remember what it feels like.
I’d be more confident in a solid second half of winter if it were not for the HTE wildcard. I still think that may result in stronger than average blocking and a cold but dry February. But one anomaly and a couple storms around transitions into and out of that pattern can do it. 🙂
Hoping all that cold in Feb. doesnt go to waste. Could be the difference between a decent winter and a great winter if the blocking isnt as strong.
At what point do you feel HTE will no longer be a factor? How long does all that extra water vapor remain in the stratosphere? I know these are probably not easy questions to answer.
Hard to say since we’ve never really observed this. Maybe a couple more years? But to what degree is anybody’s guess.
I wouldn’t if it were mine. Entirely attainable.
🙂 🙂
2023-04-12 73 66 69.5 22.50
Fort Lauderdale , April 12th, 22.50 inches of rain.
Incredible totals in Fort Lauderdale but what really astonishes me is how dry it has been in Naples just 100 miles west. To have two cities in south Florida with their wettest and driest years on record in the SAME year doesnt seem possible.
Indeed.
I am with ya Mark, I am not backing down either. I agree with TK about suppression in Feb but all it takes is 1-2 storms and boom we see at average. And who knows with March….
March 13 is on my list. And I know it may be a long shot, but I’m going with April 11 too
And I’m guessing at both
Been a while since we had a good April snow. I’ll take one. 🙂
So sorry Vicki to hear about your brother. Best wishes from all of us.
Thank you. Thank you to everyone here
You have all brought comfort ❤️
JPD under no circumstances look at this. He know mot whereof he speaks
https://x.com/ericfisher/status/1742352880915595555?s=61
No eorries.I understand this stuff.
GFs and CMC are flatter for sure. Let’s see how tomorrow shakes out but certainly looks like it could be less amplified. But we know the models tend to lose systems at this timeframe.
Yeah, 0Z GFS still looks terrible.
0z CMC is definitely flatter than 12z though still gets some decent banding in through CT up into eastern MA:
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2024010300&fh=108&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Kuchera Snow still with 6″+ for many…
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2024010300&fh=126&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
I guess this GFS could be worse. Still manages a small 6″ jackpot over Vicki….
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2024010300&fh=126&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Both models definitely dump the bulk of their goods over the mid Atlantic. System looks more strung out by the time it gets up here.
0Z GFS Ensemble Mean is south as well….
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2024_01/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_eus_18.png.2118ce1393e117cd7ecbcd406a5fa23a.png
But still some good hits in a few of the members…
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2024_01/image.png.2e94493f22d27f0fa358402980427c48.png
0z GFS with a monster Nor’easter in the long range delivering blizzard conditions and 1-3 feet of snow…
This for 1/17:
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2024010300&fh=306&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Sorry, meant 1/15.
There’s your MLK Day storm…
Total Kuchera Snow (all 3 storms) for your viewing enjoyment:
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2024010300&fh=342&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Wooo eeee
The 00z GFS has the aforementioned MLK Day storm as a 970mb low just off New England. At the same time, it has a 1061mb high sliding southward over the Yukon.
Place your Instacart bread and milk order now before it is too late…
0z Euro is a BIG hit for the weekend storm. Those pinks over eastern MA are HEAVY snow, not mix…..
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2024010300&fh=108&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&m=ecmwf_full
Euro definitely not buying the flatter, more strung out solutions depicted by the GFS and CMC.
10:1 Snow with a foot plus for most….
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2024010300&fh=132&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
I suspect this is overdone but definitely pretty to look at!
0Z UKMET not too shabby either with 10″ BDL to Boston and points south and east.
10:1 Snow….
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmet&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2024010300&fh=126&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Yeah the 00z EURO looks great. I am sure the GFS is wrong, it’s always a mess. Not that the EURO has been great, but it’s still far superior.
Again not a blockbuster but I think a nice 6-10 and maybe a few bigger spots as usual.
Unfortunately, the euro ensemble doesn’t really support that op run. If I’ve read it correctly, its further south and a lot less precip.
Do we have free access to the ensembles?
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=epsens&p=qpf_024h-mean-imp&rh=2024010300&fh=120&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=epsens&p=sfcwind_mslp-mean&rh=2024010300&fh=108&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
I use pivotal weather
I guess .5 – .7 wouldn’t be too bad.
From Bernie Rayno
One of the keys to the wknd storm is how much energy survives as it moves across VA Sat night. If that weakens to much, there will not be much snow. The ECMWF and CMC maintain the system while the GFS shows it weaker. The NAM looks very weak with it. FWIW, I lean toward ECMWF/CMC
Since that warm, wind storm a few weeks back, the atmosphere has definitely taken a break.
I do think its gearing up for a more active next 2-4 weeks.
But, I don’t think Sunday is the one, not that anyone ever said it was going to be big. Average, middle of the road system at best to a small one.
I think there are bigger systems beyond it in the pipeline.
I know no one on this blog said Sunday would be the big one. The media a different story. This storm will be hyped by them. For New England standards if this storm impacts us it will be a light to moderate snowfall.
Nwp…