Wednesday January 3 2024 Forecast (7:42AM)

220 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 3-7)

A disturbance will send some clouds through the region this morning, but it will clear out behind it this afternoon with more sunshine. Heavy frost is noted again, like yesterday, in many areas early today so allow a few extra minutes to scrape or defrost your car window if you have to drive early! Clouds return later today into Thursday as one low pressure system passes offshore and a cold front swings through the region from the northwest. The latter may produce a brief rain or snow shower Thursday through midday but otherwise it remains dry for most areas. High pressure brings dry, chilly weather late in the week. Over the weekend we eye low pressure approaching our region, and there is still quite a bit of detail to figure out. With this system at day 5 and still some disagreement and inconsistency in the guidance we use to try to help forecast it, I’m not really going to make any changes in my thoughts on it from yesterday, as the overall set-up looks the same to me. We should see our first widespread snowfall of the season, with some accumulation to talk about, but it may not start as snow or stay as snow for everybody. Synoptically speaking, I do expect somewhat elongated low pressure to be a little too far south to really nail the region, but close enough to produce a good shield of precipitation. Details will come into focus with time, but for now just prepare for the possibility of a messy / wintry end to the weekend.

TODAY: Limited morning sun with lots of high level clouds moving through. Brighter afternoon sun. Highs 37-44. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 22-29. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of a rain or snow showers through early afternoon, then increasing sun. Highs 36-43. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 17-24. Wind N under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Highs 33-40. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clouds thicken. Snow arrives overnight but may start as mix/rain some coastal areas. Lows 28-35. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Overcast with snow likely except snow or rain coastal locations. Highs 33-40. Wind E 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 8-12)

Dry January 8. Next window of opportunity for storminess is later January 9 into January 10. Early feeling on this is low pressure tracking west of New England but some variety of precipitation with cold air around to start before it becomes a mainly rain event. Obviously too far for any further detail and will monitor. Dry weather follows, but next storm may approach by the end of the period in an active pattern.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 13-17)

Storm threat window January 13-14. Dry weather follows. Temperatures variable, mostly near to a little above normal.

220 thoughts on “Wednesday January 3 2024 Forecast (7:42AM)”

    1. Really hoping we don’t get much snow. Not sure if I’d be able to help shoveling as I’m 4 months and counting recovering from August shoulder surgery. Will it ever get better?!

  3. Thanks Tk . I do not think this wull be a moderate event from Boston / south . Rain is definitely in play or mix .

  4. Good morning and thank you TK

    Water temp 44.4 off of Boston.

    I liked the 0Z Euro, but as stated, ensemble weaker with less snow.

    As for rain along the coast, it all depends upon the wind direction and wind speed. A fresh Easterly wind will mean RAIN right at the coast. The more Northerly component, the better the snow chances.

    Early on, the wind is projected to be due East, even with the Euro.

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sfct_b-imp&rh=2024010300&fh=102&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    So rain/mix is CERTAINLY in the cards along the coast. Perhaps Intensity could spare us? We’ll just have to wait and see how that plays out.

    Honestly, at this point I DO expect a period of RAIN along the coast. We shall see. Will be watching model rains as they become available. This reminds me of a system several years ago where it snowed here, then flipped to rain for awhile and then back to snow. Here in JP we managed about 5 inches.
    I could see something similar happening.

      2. 100% agree ocean temp in mid 40’s I believe non event for Boston right down through the cape

        1. I do know about non-event. Could just mean 3 inches instead of 6+ 🙂 We shall see.

          AND there will be a rather large difference between say Logan and JP or even the Longwood area. Will be most interesting to see for sure.

        1. Thank you. I am not familiar with him at all.
          The only thing I know is that he seemed to project this event as something MORE than it will be. 🙂

    2. Ugh. I enjoyed watching him until Meteorological Armageddon started approaching – now I’ll be avoiding him.

  8. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=850th&rh=2024010300&fh=108&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=850th&rh=2024010300&fh=108&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    While the ocean is 44F, the projected 850 mb temps even south of Boston are cold. -9 to -10C on the GFS, -5 to -7C on the Euro, so, if there are heavier precip elements near the coast, that probably will overwhelm the briefly 35F-37F boundary layer temps.

    And as soon as the low gets to Nantuckets longitude and points east and the column’s wind backs, the whole column cools even further.

    So, the 44F ocean may not be as effective this go round because of fairly chilly air above.

    1. Yes, that could be the case, but it is tricky.
      If the precip is NOT intense it WILL rain near the coast.
      That is why the term MIX comes into play. It could flip back and forth depending on the exact intensity at the moment, that is until the winds back, then it is all SNOW and worse that that,
      it WILL be a FREEZE!!

  9. East wind with still relatively high water temperatures spells rain at or near the coast. Add in the fact that surface temps will be marginal at best (until after the storm passes) for supporting snow accumulation, if and when it does fall as snow it won’t be able to pile up well. Different story perhaps inland.

    One of the issues impacting our region – and TK has mentioned this several times – is the lack of truly cold air in the Northeast relative to the rest of the country. Though more in line with what they should be this time of year than they were last week, temps aren’t low enough to really move the needle in terms of lowering the water temperature. I’m not seeing anything now or on the horizon indicative of a genuine Arctic intrusion of cold air.

    1. Yes and no. The second the wind backs, snow WILL accumulate,
      even on the pavements in the back bay as temperature CRASH. Trust me on that one.
      Just a matter of when the winds back and how much precipitation remains once that occurs.

      EVEN if it RAINS at first, the City of Boston should still net a solid 2-4 inches imho. We shall see what happens as NOTHING is etched in stone at this time.

  10. I don’t see rain being an issue IMO here in Boston. Maybe towards the south coast. Not sure what you are seeing SSK, apart from your usual anti snow 🙂

    As TK eluded things are too inconsistent at this point to figure things out.

    1. I dis agree Hadi. It “may” not rain in JP, but I’d bet my house it RAINS at Logan. And it may rain in JP for a time as well.
      Perhaps not, that would be a bonus, but it IS in the cards.
      We shall see. This uncertainty is a challenge for sure.
      Should be fun come late Saturday. 🙂

    2. As old salty just mentioned rain at Logan & I’m thinking rain through the south shore as well Hadi with temps in the mid 30s & ocean temps in the mid 40s . Not anti snow just thinking ( key word is thinking ) it might be tough for meaningful snow accumulation

      1. Rain will not be a factor unless the track shifts. BM track like the EURO will be all snow. As Tom eluded above temps will be plenty cold in all layers. Surface will be fine too.

  14. Rain at least for part of the event is in play anywhere along the coast as it stands now.

    East wind. Water temperature upper 40s. Minimal to negligible dynamic cooling.

  15. JPD some of your comments are going into moderation again due to a missing letter on the email.

        1. AS I stated, I HATE Word Press!!!!

          It’s almost as bad as MicroSoft who I hate equally as much and almost as much as I HATE APPLE!!!

          Do I sound jaded? Well, When I pay good money for a product, I EXPECT it to function properly!!!!
          Is that too much to ask?

  17. Re snow: wonder if the tune of cutters will be the song of the season.

    Off topic: Wrote a longer comment earlier, it got filtered. Will just keep a rewrite brief – aunt that the wife and myself have lived with had to go to the hospital late last night. She fell. After some scans they say the hip is broken. She’s almost 87 years old and has alzheimers. We are worried on multiple fronts – first with the risk of someone that age with that condition going under for surgery. Then assuming that’s successful – her going into a rehab facility for who knows how long and at what cost, I wish that was something we didn’t have to think about in america. Maybe I’ll be surprised and medicare/medicade/insurance will take care of it. Also next month we were going to take care of a lot of things to make sure the house would go to my wife but now this has happened so we’re even stressed about that. You get all the stress in your head all at once. Any prayers welcome.

    1. So sorry to hear. WHW has had its share of bad news lately. Let us hope 2024 is much better for all.

    2. Hoping for the best for your Aunt moving and forward and for both you and your wife as her care givers.

    3. Dr Stupid: sorry to have to add you to the list of 2024 medical traumas.
      I have been a financial advisor for almost 40 years. Please make sure you get a competent estate planning attorney. Hopefully, you or your wife have Power of Attorney for her aunt.
      Since I don’t know all the details, I am resisting giving advice here, but you need to resolve this sooner than later.
      Sending good wishes!

      1. We’re just tackling one headache at a time and focusing solely on the waiting for signing off on an operation. It’s fun times. There is a will, but we won’t even be thinking about that stuff until we know she’s ok. But it’s still something on our minds as you know happens when a traumatic event occurs. I think they call it catastrophizing.

  18. JPD only a few have gone to moderation. Most are coming thru. Are you posting on two different devices?

    1. Was posting from mobile device eariler. Now on my desktop computer. 🙂

      All of the more recent ones “should” be fine as the email address is correct.

      Just re-enter email on mobile and sent a test post.
      Let’s see IF that goes through.

      many thanks

  20. In the FWIW department,

    The 12Z NAM has the 500mb flow a little too flat for my liking.

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=500wh&rh=2024010312&fh=84&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    surface

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2024010312&fh=84&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    I don’t think that the NAM is projecting this system to have too much of an impact, at least at this time which is clearly NOT
    in the NAM’s wheelhouse. Will continue to monitor

  21. From Bernie Rayno
    One of the keys to the wknd storm is how much energy survives as it moves across VA Sat night. If that weakens to much, there will not be much snow. The ECMWF and CMC maintain the system while the GFS shows it weaker. The NAM looks very weak with it. FWIW, I lean toward ECMWF/CMC

    2. Those two models have a bias of over amp (ECMWF) and over coverage (GEM) so that’s part of the reason.

      1. Curious…
        Bernie Rayno is an experienced Met. Surely he sees this bias, yet he still leans in that direction. I guess Mr. Bernie is a bit
        of a WISHCASTER, no?

        1. Well, I see his point based on recent history, but I think the truth of what happens actually lies somewhere in between those model solution ranges.

          1. Fair enough. It will be interesting to see how it all plays out. Mother Nature always has a way of sneaking a curve ball in there. Will it happen this time? Who knows. I am prepared for any eventuality. 🙂

  25. 1 reason why this storm will be big hit? I leave for Phoenix tomorrow afternoon and don’t fly home until late Sunday night. So, I will miss this storm completely.

    On a different note, something TK and I were discussing last evening. On the CPC website, the CFSv2 is now showing a rapid collapse of El Nino over the next 4-6 weeks, and a La Nina developing this spring (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/images3/nino12Monadj.gif). If this ends up happening, it has all sorts of implications. For one, if El Nino does collapse that quickly, the subtropical jet gets shut down rather quickly by late February, meaning late winter and early Spring would end up much colder, but without a parade of storms (more like a typical winter). Also, hurricane season could be quite a doozy. Something to keep an eye on in the coming weeks.

    1. Thank you.

      Do NOT like the idea of a DOOZY of a hurricane season. We don’t need that. Add the HTE to that and who knows what we get.

  26. Listen I could be totally wrong on the Rn/Sn , but I am willing to at least put it out there in advance with science.

  30. Should do a statistical analysis comparing number of comments here pre storm to number of inches storm delivers.

  32. 12z GFS and CMC coming in with a bit of a colder solution for the late Tues into Wed storm potential. CMC colder than the GFS. Two POTENTIAL storm systems to track in less than a week.

  33. Your right JpDave there could be three POTENTIAL storm systems in just over a weeks time. Let’s take it one at a time starting this weekend.

  34. Can’t get a handle on the second one until the first one is done. If we have fresh snowcover, that will make it a lot tough for the warm front to penetrate northward. Plus, the farther west the storm less, the less push the warm front will have. A lot will depend on where the secondary develops and tracks. If I were a betting man, I’d think there would be a lot more freezing rain across the interior than what the models currently show.

  35. Thanks TK.

    Vicki, my condolences on the loss of your brother. Wishing the best for all those dealing with hardships in the WHW family too!

  36. 12Z UKMET is a bit suppressed.

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmet&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2024010312&fh=96&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    10:1 snow

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmet&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2024010312&fh=114&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    This kind of tells me there is RAIN near the coast

    total qpf

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmet&p=qpf_acc-imp&rh=2024010312&fh=126&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Hmmm 0.77 inch for boston, yet 1 or 2 inches of snow.
    A ridiculously low snow to water ratio OR more likely
    Lots of RAIN and/or MIX.

    Let’s see what the EURO says.

    2M temp

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmet&p=sfct-imp&rh=2024010312&fh=96&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    CANNOT DISMISS RAIN at this point. Maybe later we can, but right now it sure looks like RAIN is in play.

  37. I have been reading lots on 2 subjects lately: 1) The 2024 hurricane season and 2) the intersection of AI and weather forecasting … a subject for another day … there is too much written junk out there.

    Like SAK said above everything I read about the hurricane season talks to the “disappearance” of El Nino and the appearance of La Nina. Added to this are discussions about the warm waters of the North Atlantic and a warmer Caribbean. I have seen projections from Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) for named storms (20), hurricanes (9), and major/intense hurricanes (4) and they are all above normal.

    TSR predicts that North Atlantic hurricane activity in 2024 will be very active with activity about 30% above the 1991-2020 30-year norm and around 50% above the long-term 1950-2023 norm. This outlook has large uncertainties.

    While they admit to uncertainty, I doubt we are going to see anyone projecting less than the “norms.”

    1. Just based on the projection of a strong La Nina, the very warm Atlantic, and NHC’s propensity to name any thunderstorm that’s rotating, I wouldn’t be surprised if we break most of the records that were set in 2005 (28 named storms, 15 hurricanes, 7 major) and 2020 (30 storms, 14 hurricanes, 7 major)

  38. Dr. S, I’m so sorry about the fall and all the related stress. Praying for a good outcome for your wife’s aunt and wisdom for the two of you during the decision-making.

    1. Thank you jean! She’s going under the knife now. They say a rod and screw are needed to hopefully get her back to her previous upright shuffle state. Here’s hoping!

  39. Easy and understandable to be skeptical after how the past couple of winters have gone. However, we are likely heading into a very snowy/stormy pattern over much of the East for the next several weeks… after a healthy snowfall for most of SNE this weekend, the middle of next week system should trend colder with more frozen precip (interior definitely still favored), and there is quite a bit more in the pipeline behind that one.

    One thing to watch will be the Pacific influence, and if the Pacific jet rears its head again (which it very well may), that could lead to temperature issues. But, we’ll be into the coldest part of winter with likely a lot of snow laid down across the northern tier of the US to counteract that. Long story short, at this point I would pretty highly favor above normal snow in much of the Northeast and mid-Atlantic this winter…

  40. Dr. S, I’m sorry to hear about your Aunt’s fall. Medicare should cover most of the costs associated with the operation and rehab for up to 100 days. But I know it’s a headache sorting it out. I remember doing this when my father was hospitalized several times and then my mother (who had 2 broken hips, by the way).

        1. Well this was not supposed to go here. Sorry. Not a lot of sleep last night. This was a general question

          And Joshua …two hips is chilling.

  41. Thanks, TK!

    Joshua:
    Eureka! Thanks for sharing the clip of the Germany v. Greece football match!
    I love how the German side had the great Franz Beckenbauer playing amongst the philosophers! 🙂

    I also love the end after the Greece scores “Hegel is arguing that the reality is merely an a priori adjunct of non-naturalistic ethics, Kant via the categorical imperative is holding that ontologically it exists only in the imagination, and Marx is claiming it was offside.” 🙂

  43. It’s not an impossible scenario that Boston Metro snows more from the follow up storm (Tue/Wed) than from the upcoming Sunday event.

    I’ll get into the reasons soon. SAK touched upon one of them with regards to the snow cover in the region from the first one. Model depiction of the second one in addition to it being further out in time will struggle because they don’t have the benefit of factoring in snow cover.

    As previously mentioned, the pattern transition is underway as expected but it is a slow transition, not an instant one.

    I agree with WxW about the pattern over the coming few weeks.

  44. Just getting here and reading the posts. Dr S, I am so very sorry to hear your news.i don’t know what coverage your aunt has in addition to Medicare. But Medicare should take care of a good portion of rehab but you are right that it isn’t something you should have to think about. Mass health is another resource. Westherbee May know better than I, but I also don’t believe mass health can take your house as long as you are living in it. And Alzheimer’s adds a whole other concern. My prayers are for your aunt and for you and your wife.

    1. Thank you. And through it all today I’ve been sending a lot of love and angels your way too. ❤️

  46. I think I’m going to lose a $10 bet. I bet no TV met would post snowfall ranges prior to Thursday. My opponent said today. Channel 5 (ABC) just produced a map showing areas for 6+” and <6." Our bet has to do with TV mets posting actual snowfall ranges which Channel 5 might do by EOD. UGH!

  47. Tonga and El Nino raging along ……

    Australia ……

    “several regions across southeastern Queensland and northern New South Wales have picked up at least 2 months worth of rainfall over the last 3 days. Springsbook in Queensland received 20 inches of rainfall over the last 48 hours, more than double their January average” Reuters

    Models hinting, as mentioned in active pattern next few weeks ……

    Whatever region in the US is the bullseye in a given storm, I won’t be surprised by the precip amount that gets put down.

  51. Euro looks great. Perfect track, don’t have the best snow totals as I don’t pay anymore for pivotal since my
    unemployment:( But 10:1 and we have a widespread 8-12+. Little to no mixing issues.

    1. 5:1 / 6:1 / 7:1 at the coast, less precip, definite mixing issues if the Euro track was correct. As long as the wind is straight east, there will be mixing/rain issues at the shore.

  52. weather.cod.edu site has the kuchera for the EURO model runs. The run of the EURO on that site starts later than the other sites.

  55. I think the Euro is living up to its reputation of being overcooked/overamplified.

    The Euro’s projected pressure is many mb lower than some to most of the other models.

    From the GFS, the snow depth map change below is, as usual, less than total snowfall or kuchera.

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snodpc_acc-imp&rh=2024010312&fh=108&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    So …… putting it altogether from this far out, I’d say 3-6 or 4-7 in the heaviest precip/coldest temps overlap area.

    I’d also suggest less, such as 1-4 inches near the coast or shore where there’ll be a few hours where the boundary layer is in the low-mid 30s before a drop into the 20s just before the steadiest precip pulls away.

    Closer to 3-4 near the coast, if that pre-dawn heavy snow burst on the GFS verfies.

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2024010312&fh=93&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    1. and SAK is correct above with the reasoning he states and that’s why I added …. “from this far out”

      1. always possible.

        If the numbers end up lower, I believe its because the storm ends up further south or more elongated and therefore, lighter precip totals.

        I don’t believe heavily on the coastal rain, as I think there is plenty of modeling showing quite cold 850 and 925 mb temps.

  56. Quick peak on the cod site which has the kuchera for the 12z EURO. Most of SNE coming in with 8-14 inches of snow.

  57. Interesting article by an American who lives in my old stomping grounds, Utrecht. See New York Times link below. It’s about the “Elfstedentocht” or 11 cities (skating) tour, a very special event in the Netherlands. Because it’s been relatively mild in recent decades there hasn’t been enough ice to hold the event. While this is definitely true (and the event was held several times while I was there in the 1980s and 90s), the images of Holland the author points to that include lots of skating Dutchmen are from the 17th century during a mini ice age. It was very cold there (and here) then, but that was not representative of the weather the Netherlands normally gets.
    https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/03/opinion/snow-deficient-europe.html?unlocked_article_code=1.K00.j9ru.FfzEnl0ZIbfN&hpgrp=c-abar&smid=em-share

  58. A couple quick thoughts (don’t have too much time to analyze this afternoon)…

    1) Don’t be fooled by guidance. It struggles in several places and it’s very important to keep in mind weaknesses and biases of each model you look at, be it short range, medium range, whatever the case.

    2) Don’t assume any track on any model is the right track. NWS posted on their page today a reminder about track error. Also, the energy is barely coming onshore. It hasn’t been well-sampled as of yet.

    3) Regardless of what model output says, don’t underestimate the power of the warm ocean water with an east wind at this time of year. The coast is going to have issues staying snow, if they even start as snow. They probably go to snow eventually though.

    4) As it stands right now, snow:water ratios can vary from around 5:1 near the shore to around 12:1 by the time you get to western portions of the WHW forecast area.

  59. P.S. .. if you’re familiar with looking at guidance, pay particular attention to the 500mb set-up and the fact the storm is progressing into a pretty flat flow, almost anticyclonic. Yes the trough knocks that down somewhat, but we’ve seen countless times what that set-up does to these systems. They get stretched out along the flow and never really take on a solid identity. There are quite a few factors against this being a “major” snowstorm for SNE.

      1. For the most part the local media has been measured and fine with it. I try to keep in mind they also need to work in what the “boss” says. News and weather sells, so there’s that side to it. That said, they’ve been great (the ones I have seen).

        The usual suspects (non-pro wx weenie pages mainly) are the ones hyping the hell out of this. No surprise there. 🙂 Renewed effort on my part to try to pay less attention to that clutter and just put out the best information that I can.

  60. Re: TK’s #3 above. I totally and completely agree 100% and then some. An East wind is the kiss of Death for Snow and I don’t care how cold the air mass is. Nothing warms up the boundary layer like a stiff East wind.

    The only hope would be intense snowfall. We shall see about that, but with the possible elongation/flatter flow, I don’t see
    that happening. I’d love to see the Euro solution, but we probably won’t see that.

    Even last night Pete was talking RAIN along the coast with a collapse back to snow and a freeze. That is my biggest concern with this upcoming system. I am hoping for a surprise for sure.

    Color me in rain camp (at least for part of the time).

    I am exciting to see how in plays out.

    BTW, the 18Z NAM is a piece of crap for snow lovers
    talk about flat flow and suppression!!!

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2024010318&fh=84&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2024010318&fh=84&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=500wh&m=nam

    It is better down the coast, but I don’t expect much out the NAM.

    RDPS is next. 🙂

    1. NAM is on the right idea, but probably a little “too much” since it’s not really a great piece of guidance at that point in its run.

      There is a big difference between early January and late January on regarding the ocean’s ability to impact the temperature for rain vs. snow at the coast. You definitely know that.

      If we had a north northeast or north wind, it’d be one thing. We’re not going to see that at the coastline for this system.

      Also, I’m pretty confident that both the GEM & ECMWF op runs are deepening the surface low much too quickly, and the GEM especially has the track too far north. Everything about the pattern at this point favors a weaker, somewhat suppressed track. But as noted, we’re just about to get better sampling, so a reassessment will be needed in a little bit. 🙂

      P.S. the RDPS will be following in the footsteps of the “other” Canadian model. 🙂 Too amped.

      1. Sounds fair. Interesting to see the model spread.

        I can’t see the current NAM solution as the final. AS you say, it’s probably too much the other way at this point.

        So the NAM trends a little more towards the others and the others trend more towards the NAM. Is that the idea?

        Either way, I can not fathom No RAIN at the coast at this point either, as much as I do NOT want to see it. How much and for how long is the question.

        1. Here is the NAM 2m winds at 84 hours. NOTICE SE winds just off shore. You don’t get a snow storm with that.

          https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=sfct_b-imp&rh=2024010318&fh=84&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

          By comparison, here is the RDPS 2m winds

          https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=sfct_b-imp&rh=2024010318&fh=84&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

          This sucks as well, but at least the winds are EAST and NOT Southeast.

          Not for nothing, but the surface temp at Boston at 1AM Sunday morning is 37! With this run. Does anyone think that will support SNOW? I think not, Unless it starts
          coming down in buckets.

          I am really NOT liking the looks of this. Of course we still
          have several days to watch things evolve. We shall see.

          1. This has what I’ve been trying to say . Going to be warmer along the coast including Boston

  62. 18Z ICON still insists on the RAIN near the coast

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/icon/2024010318/icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_29.png

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/icon/2024010318/icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_30.png

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/icon/2024010318/icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_31.png

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/icon/2024010318/icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_32.png‘

    Virtually the WHOLE EVENT!!

    Total “TRUE SNOW”

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/icon/2024010318/icon_asnow_neus_36.png

    Gotta love that solution! NOT!! WOW! the worser it gets, the worser it gets!

  64. Oh yeah, I have to critique my own sky forecast today. It sucked. That is all. 🙂

    I’m heading out for a while. Will try to check in later tonight after the 00z data.

  66. One more thing. I tried posting a link to the NWS prelim prelim snowfall map but it worked at first then failed.

    General idea I saw there was around 6 inches higher elevations from I-495 belt thru ORH County and eastern slopes of the Berks with less in the CT Valley and a big drop off toward the coast (due to marine influence).

    1. Which makes sense.
      Tonight, will the Mets start talking about that possibility more or will they go all in on a snow event? 🙂

  67. NBC 10 has map out. 1-3 Boston, 3-5 inland is the basic idea, with less than 1 South Coast. Just their early map and just saying what I saw there.

    I will talk about amounts when we get closer. 🙂

  69. Peaking ahead again to the 2nd storm.

    I hope the jet stream will punch through a dry slot quick, because the connection that thing will have to deep tropical moisture will be far reaching.

    Whether it’s heavy rain or heavy snow changing to heavy rain, that’s the kind of system I’m worried about being enhanced by El Niño and a bit by Tonga’s water vapor.

    Awful lot of liquid equivalent potential with that one.

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2024010318&fh=129&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    Full Gulf of Mexico inflow.

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2024010318&fh=156&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    Atlantic inflow down through and past the Bahamas.

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=pwat&rh=2024010318&fh=156&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    Impressive precipitable water

  73. I mentioned yesterday not to give up on that midweek storm. Glad to see the models continue to trend colder today with hints of some serious cold air damming, secondary coastal storm development, and a bigger up front thump of snow/ice.

    There is nothing worse than getting 10″ of snow and then having it all washed away a few days later. Not saying we wont end up all rain from it in the end but we should get through it maintaining a solid snowpack in most places if this colder solution materializes.

    1. I’m not questioning your interpretation Mark.

      I seem to recall TK and SAK talking about a Chicago or west of Chicago track rule with the primary and implications in New England for snow in winter.

      But, that’s one heck of a gradient btwn a sub 980 mb primary and a decent polar high retreating in the Maritimes.

      If that played out, I think the gradient would eventually overwhelm things, even if for a few hours. Then, there’d be a few more mild to warm hours after the occlusion passes and before new cold air arrives from the west.

      Sure, not 60F to Quebec like the last one, but i think if today’s run verified, I don’t think it will go well for winter enthusiasts in southern New England.

      1. Agree, verbatim we are not there yet on these runs but they look a lot better than 36 hours ago and I think they will continue to trend colder than currently modeled. Especially after having a natural refrigerant laid down on the ground from this first storm from the mid Atlantic into the northeast. I’ll take an 8-10” from the first storm followed by an up front thump of snow to frz/cold rain in the second storm any day over the 60s to Quebec scenario. What’s left on the ground should be frozen afterwards, at least for interior areas, and will make for a nice base as we build and hopefully maintain a snowpack through the month.

        I think odds are increasing for a mostly heavy snow event in the mountains as well which is good news considering they are missing out on the first system. They need natural snow in the ski areas, badly.

  78. NAM with a general 4-6” across CT, RI and Worcester County already at hour 84 with several hours of snow still to go.

    1. Hahahahaha. Mac was ahead of you. He’d spend enough time trying to start our snowblower for me to finish shoveling the driveway and it was a good size . But then I always enjoyed shoveling…….then, not now

  81. Mike Masco tweet:

    MONSTER GREENLAND BLOCK LATE NEXT WEEK WILL BRING DOWN POLAR AIR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF JANUARY!
    This weekends northeast storm is part of a series of storms that will roll across the country over the next 15 days. The 2nd (more intense) storm will hit the Midwest hard later next week and then move into Canada. This event will help trigger and enhance an intense retrograding #GreenlandBlock over the northern Atlantic that will send brutal polar air southbound. This is a pattern I recognized last month (see prior tweets) that would shift the overall country into winter mode for a longer duration. The cold blast will start in the west/midwest and take 5 days to move east.

    This is the pattern change is needed to trigger a Significant East Coast Low (SECL) or Miller A event that produces the snow lover specials from the SE to New England. Target this date around Jan 20th – 28th timeframe if all things move according to plan.

    The pattern is being advertised by the European model (i’ve included in this graphic). The temperatures plotted are for illustrational purposes taken Jan 13th

    https://x.com/mikemasco/status/1742696356412576186?s=46&t=cAAA4iBELkUhqYWBAiwAsw

  83. Saw this from Frank Nocera, I honestly am more confused than anything at this point. I believe he’s a met at our NWS, or was?

    As downstream blocking develops east of Newfoundland Fri/Sat & accompanying deep cyclone, provides high latitude blocking, keeping cold 1030+ mb high over #NewEngland longer, suppressing rain/snow line southward. Just another moving part to this difficult 4cast.

    2. The synoptic rain/snow line is not really an issue.

      It’s the low level warmth near the eastern coastal areas at first.

      1. I guess if you are saying at first I agree there, but on my post earlier you seemed to imply that it was more than just at first.

        Kevin L moved the heaviest axis but threw a caveat about the Boundry temps.

  85. Nice hit on the 0z GFS with 5-8” for pretty much everybody..

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2024010400&fh=108&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    And a colder solution yet for the Tuesday system with a heavy up front thump of snow and more of the precip from the system falling as frozen as opposed to rain. North of the MA/NH line it stays mostly snow:

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2024010400&fh=147&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    2. The colder set-up for the arrival of the Tuesday/Wednesday system is something I’ve been concerned with for a bit (other mets as well). It’s a legit concern. And also, not being shown on guidance but freezing rain may be an issue at least somewhere…

      1. For sure. We’ve seen this setup before. Cold air damming, storm passing to the west, late secondary forms, and we end up with an up front thump of snow and ice. By the time it warms and changes to rain we are dry slotted and most of the precip has already fallen as frozen.

        Would be nice if a similar scenario played out here and we end up getting through the second storm without losing all our new snowcover.

        1. Pattern may be decent for that one.

          In the mean time, watch for a 00z ECMWF potential curveball.

            1. Well, I don’t think it’ll be an overly warm one, but it may be something you’re not expecting if my anticipation is correct. We’ll know in 90 min.

  88. I could have been standing in Pete’s place on his 11PM weathercast and made the speech he made. He addressed all the points regarding model #’s, apps, and east wind. 🙂

    I love that they are talking about the social media / non-met posts to be aware of. 🙂 So needed!

    2. Wankum did same thing . He has been giving a very responsible forecast all week & said from the get go rain may be on the coast or involved

  89. I wonder how many people were paying attention to the different in the snowfall forecast through 12z Sunday between the 12z Wednesday and 18z Wednesday ECMWF runs. I bet not many.

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