Thursday January 4 2024 Forecast (7:20AM)

330 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 4-8)

Today, low pressure scoots out to sea to the southeast of our area, while a cold front moves through the region from northwest to southeast. Other than the slight chance of a rain or snow shower from the front, it’ll be a dry day, just starting with a lot of clouds and eventually seeing some sunshine. Colder air moves in tonight on a gusty breeze, with sharper air than we’ve felt in a while as it falls to the 20s with wind chill temps dropping below 20. Friday’s weather will feature a chill but it will be a dry day, starting with a stinging breeze but ending up more tranquil as high pressure takes over. This high will keep it cold on Saturday as we start to see increasing high clouds ahead of a storm system set to impact the region later that night and through most of Sunday. There are still some questions to be answered regarding the track of the low pressure center and the full impact on us. Confidently I can say that a good portion of the region is likely to receive measurable snowfall significant enough to pull out a shovel to move it. However, don’t read this as everybody gets nailed, because there are some factors against a widespread significant snowfall at play here as well. Among them are a low center that may deepen more slowly than shown by many models, and one that may also string itself out quite a bit to our south, not having the impact as far north as many systems like it may have. Another issue is an easterly wind off the relatively mild Atlantic water which will warm the lowest levels of the atmosphere. This presents a chance that rain will be at least mixed in over eastern locations of MA, and that even plain rain may fall for a while in many immediate coastal areas. If this is to be the case, snowfall amounts will be cut down significantly by it. The greatest chance of a moderate to locally heavier snowfall resides away from the coast of MA and southern NH, down to northern RI and northeastern CT, based on my current ideas of how the storm tracks and its precipitation shield. I’ll put a solid first call for accumulation on the next blog update (Friday morning). Behind this system, precipitation exits and we dry out for the start of the coming week on Monday.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of a rain or snow showers through early afternoon, then increasing sun. Highs 36-43. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 17-24. Wind N under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Highs 33-40. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clouds thicken. Snow arrives overnight but may start as mix/rain coastal areas. Lows 28-35. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Overcast with snow likely except snow or rain coastal locations. Highs 33-40. Wind E 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with snow ending in the evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 20-27. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 32-39. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 9-13)

Storm potential late January 9 into January 10 with a mix of precipitation but ending up as mainly a rain event based on current projected track. A dry interlude between that and another late-period storm chance as we remain in an active weather pattern. Temperatures may surge with the passage of the first storm system depending on its track, and turn colder behind it, but the period as a whole will see near to above normal temperatures.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 14-18)

Unsettled weather potentials very early and very late in the period based on current timing of disturbances in an active weather pattern. Temperatures variable, but near to above normal for the period.

330 thoughts on “Thursday January 4 2024 Forecast (7:20AM)”

  3. Good morni g and thank you TK

    Some flakes in the air here awhile ago.

    Ocean temp is 43 7

    Check out 6z gfs on sterouds!!!!!

    Many models depict rain in Eastern sections, but euro shows sleet. don’t get that one Rain I can see, sleet??? tis a mystery to me.

    Past experience SCREAMS RAIN near the coast, at least for part of the time untill winds back.

    Hoping for snow, but prepared for some rain just the way it is with this track.

  4. Today is the day where the guidance finishes having its muscle twitches. Starting tonight / early tomorrow we should see them come somewhat back to earth with intensities, tracks, numbers, etc.

    IMO there is still too much to get reined in to put out my snowfall forecast for this update, so I’ve opted to wait for tomorrow’s. That said, if I gain enough confidence I’ll toss ideas out there in the comments today (most likely this afternoon when I return from my employment session haha).

  8. Thanks TK.

    32F with a surprise coating of snow on the ground here this AM. Our biggest snowfall of the season thus far, lol.

    1. I 95 Corridor Eastward is MOSTLY RAIN!!!!! With only an inch or 2 late snow. BUMMER!!!!

      I HOPE this map i WAAAAY Under Done, but betcha anything it is in line with TK’s thinking. 🙂 🙂 🙂

      1. I’m worried ….. the NWS snow-maps are usually so accurate.

        (they’ll be right this time, though, lol)

        1. Ha ha ha.
          Honestly, I think this one is under done.

          I think my location gets 3-4 inches after some rain/mix.
          Logan gets 2-3 inches. Just my thoughts.

          Waiting on the 12Z runs. Dying to see how the NAM plays it.

          1. Yes, always good to see future runs.

            I do feel as though, we know its pretty cold column, even to 925 mb.

            We know the ocean is still 44F and for a bit, at least, there’s a direct east wind.

            Each is a compelling argument supporting that rain can get involved or snow can hang on to the beaches.

            Unless something drastically changes, I feel those 2 components have been set for a couple days.

            It might be a wait and see which one wins in any given coastal location.

            And, of course, if there’s steady/heavy precip, cause I 100% believe that will do the trick right to the ocean.

            1. Agree. IN this situation, intensity will keep the boundary layer COLD ENOUGH. But anything other than heavy snow and it’s up for grabs. 🙂

  13. Maps from around the dial… even though one station showed a map last night, even that station reeled it back and none are committing to any snow maps with totals yet. They know this one is tricky and they don’t want to put anything out and be wrong, for once.

    https://ibb.co/z66dr5C

        1. She went through surgery well, she’s just confused as to why she’s in the hospital – to be expected with Alzheimer’s. But she seems herself which is all we can hope for.

      1. Pete tweeted something about the warming change in ocean temp a couple of days ago. I can’t find it but did share it here so will look. Perhaps that is why he has more in your area

  15. In this setup, I am in a squeeze play that I have seen before. Winds off the water say rain; being 10 miles north of Boston says snow; and being at the top of a hill says snow. I am thinking I’ll be in the 1-3″ range as it stands now … subject to future track changes.

    And as for the GFS, it can be summed up in a single word … ludicrous. Appropriately, Internet slang for GFS … yeah, Good F’ing Story.

    1. This is the HIGHEST Met Snow Map I have seen.
      He actually has 3=6 inches for Boston. Hmmm

      Good point on the ADJUSTABLE caveat. 🙂

  18. 12z NAM is warm with snow and then a rain line that gets up to the CT MA boarder around 10am Sunday morning and close to Boston by early afternoon. Then a turn back to snow mid to late afternoon.

  21. That high north, northeast of Maine …….. as we get into late Saturday and go through Saturday night, the column is getting even a bit CHILLIER. And then, as the precip arrives several hours later, from 925 mb up, it really doesn’t moderate much before it cools again.

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=850th&rh=2024010412&fh=54&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=850th&rh=2024010412&fh=63&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    top link, 2pm Saturday vs 2nd link, 11 pm Saturday (NAM)

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=850th&rh=2024010400&fh=66&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=850th&rh=2024010400&fh=75&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    2pm Saturday vs 11pm Saturday, GFS

    I get a mild ocean and an east wind, and they may win again, but I think every individual event is unique. This set-up, there is evidence that column is really staying chilly to almost 2,000 ft and I don’t know if 35F or 36F at the immediate coast is even enough to fully melt the snow flakes. Make it very wet, sure, melt it to rain drops, I’m not so sure.

    1. I think at the immediate shore line it RAINS almost for certain.
      It’s just a matter of how far inland the rain penetrates.
      I am hoping it stops a mile East of my location. Not likely , but hoping. My experience at this location says it WILL RAIN
      for at least a time. I am hoping that time is severely LIMITED.

      I am being real here and NOT WISH CASTING.

      Of course, I am hoping it STAYS ALL SNOW here!!!
      But I am prepare for and expecting at least some RAIN
      to get involved. 🙂

  22. 12Z NAM still snowing at 84 hours, but getting ready to quit.

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2024010412&fh=84&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=ref1km_ptype&m=nam

    As of 84 hours total Kuchera Snow

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2024010412&fh=84&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    It has Boston teetering on the edge of a rain/snow line

    Examples:

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2024010412&fh=72&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2024010412&fh=78&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    All in all, this solution looks reasonable to me. Perhaps North Central MA, S VT and S NH numbers a little overcooked??

    RDPS is up next. 🙂

  23. On that 12z NAM, the mildest in Boston it gets at 925 mb or about 2,500 ft is -3C = 26.6F.

    I think that, with decent precip intensity, gets it done. At least in Boston.

    Ok, maybe the east end of runway 2b has mixed precip.

    And these profiles are with a northern solution for low track.

    So possibly drop the column temp profiles 20 or 30 miles further south.

    1. Tom,

      I agree 100% that the column is/remains COLD above 2,000 feet or so. Heavier precip “should” maintain snow, however, anything that is less than moderate to heavy will bring RAIN near the coast.

      I can’t wait to see this play out. Seriously, I find this to be fascinating. Rain, snow or both at the coast? Who knows for sure. I go with experience, even though each event is
      unique as you say.

      So far sticking with Logan 1-2 inches
      My location 3-4 inches and upward N&W of here.

      Truly Hope I am wrong and we come in with all snow at
      6-8 inches. 🙂

      1. Oh absolutely.

        In posting all that regarding coastal rain vs snow, I promise I’m not trying to change anyone’s mind.

        Its really to convince myself of my own take. 🙂

        And its debatable if the evidence I’m submitting is really in my favor 🙂

        1. What you present is fine. I just hope you don’t have a short
          memory. An EAST wind is the KISS OF DEATH for SNOW.

          Maybe it won’t be too strong and it will snw, but I am seeing20 mph EAST wind before the precip begins. You KNOW what that will do. It may actually start as RAIN
          in coastal sections.

          Again, I hope I am DEAD WRONG.

          I can’t wait for this one.

          So much riding on this and it is NOT the final outcome, but what happens in the 1st half of the storm. 🙂

          Cheers

    1. I have grown to love Pete and his style. He is now my favorite, ahead of Eric.

      He has been very real with this system and has explained all of the scenarios.

      He was funny last night about the Rain. He says he has been burned in the past by forecasting snow when the East wind
      brought rain. 🙂

      This will be FUN to see how it turns out.

      In the coastal areas we may not know for sure until game time.
      So snow will be a game time decision. 🙂

        1. Indeed. Seems like a nice guy to know.
          Not that Eric isn’t.

          I won’t watch channel 4, not because of Eric, but I can’t stand their NEWS approach. It makes my blood boil!

          I love the honest, sincere style CH 10 presents.
          And I also love that CH 10 is the most diverse station in the area.

    2. Another northern low track solution.

      Now if this and the NAM’s low center is the track, I’m not as bullish on the immediate coast.

      My take is dependent on something a little closer to the benchmark’s latitude or even a bit further north.

      But, not this far north.

  27. As a no snow guy, I always enjoy watching tv Mets walk their forecasts back to reality after roaring out of the gate. Ch 5 has gone from where 6+ is likely to where several inches is possible. Also now pulling back the throttle on dangerous winds. We will see what happens but the trend is my friend.

    1. Remember they are always careful to be clear the initial forecast are preliminary and folks need to stay tuned. And also. Being the first to forecast is dictated by management.

      That said, I always appreciate knowing something is brewing esrlier than later

  28. Soon all of the high resolution short range models will be in range and we will have MORE data to pour over. 🙂

  29. So far for my area looking at the 12z runs that have come out it looks like 6 7 inches for my area. I would take that and be very happy.

  30. Tom,

    Idea

    Perhaps you have done this before, but for your students
    what about introducing the concept of the snow ration
    and then see how their math skills are by giving then a problem or 2 like:

    We have .75 inches of melted snow. With a ration of 8:1 how much snow fell.

    Well, you get the idea.

    Cheers

    1. I love it !!

      Right now, my students are working through a math diagnostic and that’s why I have a chance to be on here a lot from 8-2.

      When we start up tomorrow or Monday, the next unit is decimals. We have already done ratios and proportions, so, I will definitely use your question in about a week or so as great class warmup !! Your question will do a great job assessing their knowledge on decimals, ratios and proportions !!

      Thanks JpDave !

        1. Thanks JpDave !

          I really enjoy reading your posts and talking out the weather with you and with everyone here. A lot of great people !

          1. I have always been into the weather, but I have been in and out as to really digging in and learning.
            Very much unlike you.

            I have been so into work lately. Sure I look at all of the models etc, but I don’t do enough to LEARN MORE.

            Oh well, I’ll enjoy what I can. 🙂

  31. The NWS snow map only goes through 7am Sunday. That is not the storm total. They never do more than 72-hours out on snowfall.

    Not sure when my Weekend Outlook (and storm forecast) will be posted today. I leave for the airport around 2pm, so either I have to have it done before then (and likely not see the 12z ECMWF), or I start it before then, and finish it off when I get to Logan. Either way, I will miss this storm completely, as I don’t get back until just before the crack of dawn on Monday. But the weather in Tempe, AZ will be great for the next few days: https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-111.93952560424803&lat=33.42661067808257

    1. Thank you for the clarification on the NWS snow map.
      Oh boy, it is right on the top of the map right in front of our eyes. I for one, didn’t even see that. My eyes went right to the snow totals.

      LESSON LEARNED!

      ENJOY your trip!

  32. Thanks, TK!

    Lots of staff (and students) out today because of illness, so I am a substitute right now for weightlifting!

    They certainly picked the right teacher to cover weightlifting!! Hahahahahaha 🙂

    1. LOL, we love coverage !!!!

      Good luck, Captain !

      Yes, we have about 92% attendance in each grade right now.

      In the fall without sickness, it usually was about 97-98%.

  33. So far, I feel like the 12z info that has come in has a slightly more northerly low track.

    The GFS looks like its overwhelming the column with heavy precip echos though.

    1. Wow!!

      What a BUMMER.

      Any farther North and we’re ALL RAIN!!!!!_)@*#*(!@*#!*@_#!@*(#)!*(@_#(!@#)!(@#)!(#!@(#)!(@)#(

      Bring on the EURO and UKMET

  43. Thanks for the annual warm welcome back y’all. Hope everyone and your families are well.

    Looks like I need to hookup the plow.

    And I need to drive a daughter to logan Sunday morning. That’s appearing to look unpleasant.

  44. I am thinking the 12z EURO will show a rain line that gets close to the Boston area. I would be quite surprised if it shows what the 12z GFS showed. I just have this feeling of a 4-8 inch snowfall over the interior and 2-5 for the coast.

    1. Along about 2PM we’ll know what the Euro had to say. 🙂

      I am slowly getting a BAD VIBE. Perhaps just over reacting to a single operational run. 🙂

  45. 12Z GFS Operational run at 78 hours

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2024010412&fh=78&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Ensemble mean

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gefsens&p=sfcwind_mslp-mean&rh=2024010412&fh=78&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Ensemble members

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gefsens&p=sfcmslp-meanmem&rh=2024010412&fh=78&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    This means that the operational run is one of the Western outliers of the members.

    It also would mean that the snow total projected from the ops run would be LESS.

    Oh, fun fun fun

  51. To Tom and JPDs comments above re Pete

    I love Eric too. He and JR are pretty Much tied. And Tom you are so right about Pete being sincere. After Mac had passed in one of the December 9 storms, he messaged happy anniversary to me knowing I was missing Mac. I never knew how he remembered but assume it is because I often mention dec 9, our anniversary and snow. Not that anyone here would know that 😉 😉

    JRs personality is a lot like Pete’s. When he firsf started and I called in a snow report, he had to have chatted with me for 10-15 minutes. And he had no clue who I was.

  52. Retrac. Well this is a wonderful surprise. It is so good to see you. I have not caught up to all the posts but I hope you are well

    And now we know snow is on the way. Dr S, arod and retrac. A trifecta

    1. I’m terrible at not leaving comments during non snow months. I check the blog often but usually have way more to contribute during the colder times. lol

  53. Tale of the tape …..

    Hadi and I are thinking limited rain at the coast

    TK has some rain

    JpDave is hoping for snow, worried about rain

    SSK has heat advisories up along the coast

    🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

    4. lol Tom post of the year . I’ll add to it non plowable event from Boston right down through the cape .

  57. Question, what’s the definition of “plowable”? I’ve seen my town try and plow less than 1”

    1. It used to mean around 3″. As public works departments have become more modern and try to use as little salt as possible, plowing off snow an inch or two of snow, and then applying salt, is much better than constantly dumping salt on it and waiting for it to melt off, while leaving significant slush behind and also causing hard pack to form.

      1. **It also depends on existing and forecasted pavement and air temperatures during and after the storm.

      2. Thank you. Our roads are narrow and wind so even our small neighborhood at the far SE corner of town is plowed with very little. And this much appreciated

        We pretreat also. Maybe most do now. But what do they pretreat with.

  60. My guess … all TV Mets will have amounts posted tonight and each will say they may have to be tweaked over the next couple of days which could mean anything.

    1. I saw several snow amounts last night. And they will say to watch because they will be tweaking. Sadly many don’t hear that so will criticize them on the backside.

    1. Yes, the models have backed off today on the east trend and up front cold air with the midweek system. 12z Euro looks terrible, not that it ever looked good for that system. Still think the Euro is overamped and too far west.

      Regardless, looking like flood watches are going to be going up within hours of the winter storm warnings being taken down.

      Everyone enjoy your 48 hours of snowpack!

    3. I’ll answer that on sat night / Sunday . Your acting like I could be totally wrong it’s not on the table when it is more than on the table . I’ll eat crow if need be !!

      1. I mean you could be right, but nothing out there says no snow for the coast so not sure what you are basing it on.

          1. Both will be overcome mid storm as the winds shift and the rain /snow line collapses southeast.

            Definitely agree with you that the storm will be mostly rain at the start in your area but confident roads will need to be treated in the second half of the storm.

            1. I’m sure some salting yes & snow in air yes but primarily rain & not just pembroke. But like I said I may be totally wrong.

    1. Very deceiving. They should just wait until the full duration of the storm is within range so they can give an actual storm total amount. Even the link says “storm total snow”

  69. I have a range for my area from all the 12z runs of 6 inches on the low end to 16 inches on the high end. I expect winter weather alerts to go up sometime tomorrow.

    1. Thanks Tom. I agree that is a possibility. How much can we accumulate after the rain threat is gone?

  72. 18Z NAM cranking now…

    So far I am still thinking 3-4 inches for my location. Hoping for more, but trying to be real. Of course, this is subject to change with additional data. Not yet ready to jump on the 6+ train. That one is still waiting at the station.

  75. From Bernie Rayno

    GFS now showing what ECMWF has shown all along. Energy coming into the NW tonight will feed into shortwave Sat night strengthening the storm.

      1. They may have copied and pasted from this morning but the time stamp on it is:

        Area Forecast Discussion
        National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
        1255 PM EST Thu Jan 4 2024

      2. The original discussion for the storm was written this morning but if it shows up again with a new time stamp it indicates there’s no real change at this time.

          1. Thank you. I thought so. Just to be clear, the question was to Hadi, but I loved that you answered. 🙂

  77. Cold front just went through here. Good wind gusts 20-25 MPH with it. A shower of rain and graupel just missed me to the southwest.

    2. We were hiking in Fitchburg when in came through. I call it somewhere between wind-driven flurries and a snow squall.

        1. The watch is issued based directly on their current accumulation forecast (an updated version of which we will see soon). They are not going to issue one for a place they expect the snowfall to be below criteria.

          1. So Cambridge is going to have 6 inches and Boston 2-3 inches?? I am sure there will be a sharp gradient.

            I’m just having fun with this. 🙂

        1. Right so on Storrow drive no WSW, but on Memorial Drive there is a WSW. HILARIOUS if you ask me.
          Sure, a line has to be drawn somewhere, but I’m with Hadi.
          Would have made more sense to draw the line at Arlington or Belmont. 🙂 🙂 🙂

          Just my sicko mind speaking.

          Cheers

  80. Looking at the 18z NAM NY will be taking the lead over Boston in the snowfall standings. Lower Fairfield county in CT northern NJ NYC Westchester county NY do well on that run.

  85. Sorry JpDave.

    I got caught up.

    To your question above, let’s say the coast rains til 1pm, what the 700 mb inflow shows around 18-21z plus lighter precip til 00z, I really think the coast could get a solid 2-4, 3-5 inches after a changeover.

    If it can get a cement 1-3 before that, then even better 🙂

    1. We shall see.

      I honestly don’t think ANY of the models have this thing 100% correct yet.

      Should be MOST INTERESTING!!!

  87. Yesterday’s 18z NAM was a terrible run, not because of how much snow, the actual meteorology of it. And today’s stinks too.

    But 18z stuff doesn’t have the data the 00z and 12z runs get.

        1. I understand. Just messing with you.

          I honestly don’t think it will make a difference one way or the other. 🙂

  91. I think a Winter Storm Watch is up but might not include Boston at this point. I saw a Watch map but wasn’t sure if Boston was in or out.

    1. On this map, JP is in the 6-8 inch range. Logan is in 4-6 range.

      Well now, this map looks much better. But, Is it real or is it
      MEMOREX. And old commercial. 🙂

  93. I see this event as having 3 parts

    Part 1: I presume the warm advection lead precipitation part. This can contain a heavy burst of precip.

    Part 2: the possible middle lull and when the coastal front and its airmass is furthest west and at its mildest. This part is when the obligatory, the storm is underachieving comments occur.

    Part 3: the back and it can be a healthy 2-4 hrs of snow for areas that don’t do well during part 2. 850 mb inflow off the ocean as the coastal front collapses.

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=850wh&rh=2024010412&fh=78&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    1. Yes indeed.

      I was in the kitchen awhile ago thinking exactly about the 850 mb flow and was going to post something.

      Excellent!

  95. Thanks, TK. It was variably cloudy in the Framingham/Sudbury area w/ a good deal of sun, but it was still cold. On the way home the sky to the north got very dark. Almost looked like a thunderstorm. Well, we didn’t get any precipitation but it got much colder and windy. Feels very raw out. Read all comments and I don’t understand all of the info. but I guess it will all come together in end. We will see Sat. night into Sun. Personally, I can’t see any rain Metrowest or 495 area. Maybe sleet? Snow/rain lines – I think they can be tricky. Hoping for some snow here. You all do a great job in your comments. It’s kind of fun to see what will happen. But it can be frustrating, too.

    1. Had that same experience with the way the sky looked just a bit ago down here. Even produced a few flurries. 🙂

    2. It was the same as I sat in the car while granddaughter rode. Thunder storm sky is a perfect description. And it got cold and windy here too.

      Hope your husband is improving. Prayers continue

    1. Not sure I had seen it. Thanks.
      Seems reasonable. We shall see.

      I’m sure there will be number tweaking tomorrow and Saturday. 🙂

  97. Ok I’ve seen enough to go with #’s now, which are somewhat similar to the WBZ TV map. The ocean wind WILL be an influence.

    Less than 1 inch Outer Cape Cod & Nantucket.
    1-3 inches tip of Cape Ann, Mid Cape to CC Canal and immediate shore of Plymouth County right up to the runways of Logan (Logan itself around 3 because of more snow on the back end).
    3-6 inches middle of Cape Ann down the immediate North Shore and through JP’s property then southward, or basically anywhere east of I-95.
    6-10 inches everywhere else.
    Anything over 10 is reserved for an isolated pocket somewhere inland/higher elevation or under a pivoting snow band if it should occur.

    1. OK then, is it 3 or is it 6? I want to pin you down.
      If it could be 3 at Logan, then My location “should” Be closer
      to the 6 than the 3.

      It’s all good because no matter what anyone predicts, the snowfall will be whatever it is. As long as there is no or very limited rain, I’m fine. 🙂

    3. Good luck !

      You describe so well what we see here often when the ocean is still mild.

      My neighborhood usually ends with 1-2 on the backside. Get a few miles west by rte 3 and it’s more like 3 inches and then work west another few miles and it’s 4 or a little higher out by my dad in Pembroke. Seen it often before the eventual later winter blitzes.

    5. Thanks TK.

      I just did a quick scan of your predictions and saw a 95 in there. I’m counting on that 😀

  98. Saw your cimment Dr S. Can’t find now. But any time you are here is special. Retrac and arod and all of our winter warriors also.

  99. I’m not super confident in this, but it might be worthwhile to enjoy this snowfall Sunday.

    I feel like the signal is weighted more towards arctic air masses plunging south into the inter-mountain west, with, in turn, surges of warmth periodically moving north up the east coast.

    And 1 or more big storm(s) riding that sharp temp contrast, unfortunately set up and traveling to our west.

    Quick but moisture laden precip events adding up to possible impressive totals. Various types of flooding, short and long term a possibility.

    1. It is initially (much of January). February and now possibly March may be a different story.

    2. I agree the next two systems have cutter potential (first one is increasing looking like toast, the MLK system – less confident) but after that the door to a storm track to our west should close.

      1. Good. I’d like to see a really big snowstorm before winter’s out.

        But I like getting them later in the season when there’s more sunlight and a higher angle sun to warm the car and clean the roads off.

        Thanks TK and Mark !

    1. I hope not but that sadly has been the norm of late. I’m Not sure if you had a chance to listen to Harvey’s presentation that I shared a couple of days ago. He pointed out that even when we get snow, or extreme cold, it disappears quickly.

    1. Thank you. These are greatly appreciated. One of my kids asked if the person who calls himself stupid was still doing these…it was said fondly

  106. To comment on the NWS watches/warnings – they are all done by County. Cambridge is in Middlesex County, Boston in Suffolk. Winter Storm Warning means 7″ is expected, So, if the forecast for anyone in southeastern Middlesex County (the forecast zone Cambridge is in, includes all of Middlesex county inside of 128/95) is for 7″ (like say Woburn), then Cambridge will be in included in the warning, even if they only expect 4″ or so for the People’s Republic.

    1. I know where Woburn is. 😉

      People’s Republic of Cambridge has always cracked me up.

  107. Is there any thinking at all the winds do not shift & the cold air coming in mid day Sunday could be delayed ?? When the storm is done .

  108. JP Dave’s property should measure around 4.1356 inches, more or less, when all is said and done. Don’t worry it will all be gone by Wednesday morning.

    Not a fan of snow that melts almost as soon as it gets here, but we’ll take whatever we get this winter. I went outside this evening just to feel the fresh air. As you know, I love a cold front. I wouldn’t mind a cold front like the one that pushed through Moscow sending temps down into the negative teens Fahrenheit (-27C). Right now it’s -13F. Wish I could be there. Well, not really, I detest Putin.

    Helsinki wouldn’t be bad. It’s been cold there all winter. Currently 2F. Nice.

    1. I remember when we were entering the snow drought years at the end of the1970s, my brothers used to complain all the time about every time it snowed it would melt before it snowed again. They hated it!

  110. TK, you are correct about the late 70s. Even in 1978. We had a major snowstorm a few weeks before the biggie in early February. The January storm melted away very quickly. Temperatures soared. I think we hit 62F in Boston before perhaps the quickest hitting cold front I’ve ever experienced. I think I’ve said this before. I was out and about in the city with my Dad when the front moved in. I think that within an hour or two we went from 50s to 20s and below. One of the other times I recall such a front moving through was in March 2005, so fairly recently. That front produced snow squalls, beautiful ones that stuck to walls of buildings and windows because they were wet before and had iced over. Loved that front, too.

    The beauty of the February blizzard was that it did stick around for while. Yes, the sun angle chipped away at the snow. But we had some glorious winter days with sunshine and cold temps for a sustained period post Feb 6.

    1. Yep. You are right. I mentioned many times that we had a major blizzard with thunder snow on our wedding night …dec 9, 1978. But it stayed. And it sure as heck stayed in the 60. Although by 80s we were already seeing the warming. Harvey addresses this really well

      2. Ignore above. Except that Harvey touched on it. Above is disjointed and makes no sense to even me. Apologies

  111. So you think Natick comes in around 6-8? Surprised but encouraged to see Pete at 3-5. Are you on board with generally a light to moderate fluffy snow? Thanks.

    1. I’m on board with the #’s I posted (so far, unless I change them), and a for that area a wetter snow Sunday AM and a much drier snow Sunday PM. Temps drop during the day Sunday into the 20s. It’s not highlighted so clearly in my forecast above, but tomorrow morning’s post will be worded more clearly.

  112. SSK, to try to answer your question above ….

    Think of a quarter (coin)

    On Sunday, the wind will behave like going around the top half of the quarter from the right side to the left side.

    Near the coast, rain is in question from the time you are on the right side of the quarter all the way to and just pass the very top of the quarter (east wind).

    But as the low keeps moving east, you continue around the left side of the top of the quarter.

    And just pass the top of the quarter, your headed both left and down, that’s a northeast wind.

    For that few hours Sunday afternoon, that’s probably when Pembroke and Marshfield are most susceptible to decent snow because that wind will still bring moisture in off the ocean and it will be cooling off.

    Hope that can help.

    1. Wow. Great explanation. I was drawing in the air with my finger while I read. Thanks from me too, Tom

  113. Is the wind even going to be strong? That should be a factor too on how far inland the rain gets. Low pressure doesn’t seem to be particularly strong so generate a lot of winds.

    1. Did you see the question I asked above . A lot at stake with this projected wind direction. & colder air & if it’s delayed game over .

    2. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2024010418&fh=72&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

      Here’s what the GFS projects for wind.

      Not howling. Breezy especially near the coast. But, relatively speaking, there’s not a lot of resistance on land because there’s no deep snow cover, no frozen bodies of water, I think that marine layer can make some inroads inland, especially until the low gets to about Martha’s Vineyard. Get pass that and the wind should start to back in and first and then near the coast.

  114. Bruins 4 and Pens 5 after 2. Bruins crawled back after being down 5-2. Not sure if I have it in me to watch the third but it could be fun!

    Nice to see the Woodshill winter season heating up as well. Happy New Year!

  119. Norway and much of Scandinavia has been quite wintry since early December: Both sustained periods of cold and snow. Many of those North Atlantic lows I’ve talked about encounter very cold Arctic air once they’ve traversed the North Sea. What was rain across the British Isles becomes snow in Scandinavia: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DP-PsVZKxVo

  120. Poor 00z NAM …..

    I refuse to acknowledge the Sunday system.

    Then, suddenly south of Block island …

    I change my mind !! Let me build back the low and intensify it decently.

    Comedic run.

    1. Unless it’s the one west of it just entering the picture.

      I try to find the storm when it’s in the plains and back track it to the current time, but I’m not good at it.

  125. Tim Kelley Tweet, you know where he lives SSK

    NAM FOUS Boy : “that’s all snow, 5″ near my house by sunrise Sunday.. with 10 hours to go.. and this is supposed to be the ‘warm’ part”

  126. Sorry about that. I half asleep listening to the wind and watching the Bruins game. Time for a second wind.

    The 00z NAM (12km version) is actually starting to show the outcome I had envisioned for this system a few days ago and tried not to stray too far from, hence me being reserved in my outlook and # posting. This is a somewhat colder, elongated system, but yes with still some BL warmth / rain issues along the eastern coastal areas for the first part of the storm as became more clear more recently (not part of the original idea so clearly).

    So for the moment, I’m comfortable with my first guess #’s, and will tweak if necessary before tomorrow morning’s post. Also have to review the other 00z guidance. But after a terrible 18z run, I think the 00z run of the NAM is in a better place.

  128. This will end up colder IMO, yes we have wind issues but it’s not a powerhouse storm. I could be way off and fine with being wrong but I just have a feeling.

    1. It ends up both. Recall the stretched out nature of the system as outlined a couple days ago. I had to hone in on the warming influence of the east wind, which is definitely coming into play. The colder aspect of the storm comes into play for the city, Sunday afternoon, when we have to wait for a second surge of upper level energy to re-energize the snowfall. That is when the city gets most of its accumulation.

      1. That GFS run is a little over the top with snow #’s but has the right idea IMO on the layout. It doesn’t show the coastal issues very well, but that’s not a surprise. Short range guidance will pick that up better.

  132. Tom, regarding your explanation above. I’ve always said you could have been a top notch meteorologist had you chosen the career, because you understand the concepts excellently well. But you’re already a top notch teacher, which is of great benefit to many people. 🙂

    3. Thank you TK !

      And sincerely, here on your blog, I have happily learned from you, as well as everyone else. This blog has taught me so much. Invaluable place of learning here and a lot of great people too !

    1. That Tuesday / Wednesday system we still have to keep an eye on for front end snow and/or freezing rain somewhere. Modeling of that one will suffer for another couple days.

  136. I don’t know if it’s been mentioned here, but I find it amazing that all of the snowfall maps from the local (Boston) stations are in such agreement. No variation in numbers whatsoever from what I can tell. No need for any channel switching.

    1. Yes they’ve been in good agreement in general.

      I’ve seen over-inflated #’s from bad sources, but not legit ones.

  138. WSW expanded as the system has trended slightly SE thus a colder system for coastal areas but still a very close call per NWS. Nice write up this morning.

  139. Watched major 3 local stations this AM and as mentioned above by Philip, still in good agreement.

  141. As we come into the 12z runs, my 2 questions and 1 comment are ……

    1) How moderate or heavy is the precip on the lead stuff Saturday overnight

    That lull Sunrise Sunday to maybe early afternoon now seems to be quite a lull, precip wise. That won’t do near the coast when the boundary layer is at its mildest.

    2) The last part, how long does it take for the back side to get invigorated a bit. Seeing some hints that might occur a bit further offshore, which, I believe would impact coastal snow potential.

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