Friday January 5 2024 Forecast (7:29AM)

261 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 5-9)

Our first significant winter storm with frozen precipitation as the main player is on the way and will have a significant impact on the first weekend of 2024. But before we get there, we have a bright but cold Friday ahead. Gusty winds that are taking wind chill readings to around 10 will ease up later today, taking the edge off the cold, but we will have plenty of sun. Tonight will be another cold one, but this time without the biting wind. Saturday’s bright early sun will become filtered then fade behind increasing high cloudiness. This is in advance of the aforementioned winter storm. Detailing this event is next, keeping in mind a few tweaks can still follow. Expecting a low pressure area to emerge off the Mid Atlantic Coast Saturday evening and then become an elongated low center as it passes just to the southeast of New England during the entirety of Sunday. There are two upper level boosts of energy for this system, the first one to give the initial batch of precipitation some enhancement as it overspreads the region Saturday night (late evening / overnight from southwest to northeast), and a second one coming along during Sunday afternoon, with a slight regionwide lull in between. In addition, an east wind to the north of the low pressure area, with high pressure in southeastern Canada, will drag low level warmth in off the ocean, making it harder for precipitation to stay as snow along the coast and especially over Cape Cod for at least the first part of the precipitation. As the low center starts to move more to the east and eventually gets to a position more southeast of the region, the wind will start to turn more northerly and drag colder air in further south and east with time. Also, with the first area, we have to watch for some heavier snow banding quite a distance from the low center as we can sometimes see. These factors make for a potentially complex pattern of snowfall accumulation. The overall idea though is that the first part of the storm may produce the majority of the accumulation we see north and west of Boston, while the latter portion of the storm would produce most of and in some cases all of the snowfall accumulation for locations south and southeast. Cape Cod, for example, can start as a mix or rain, and stay that way for many hours with no accumulating snowfall until as late as the middle of the day on Sunday, but still end up with a couple inches of snowfall at the end. Keeping all of this in mind, when reading my snowfall accumulation forecast break-down, remember that these are for the storm as a whole. Current expectations are: Up to 1 inch mainly late in storm Outer Cape Cod and Nantucket, 1-3 inches Mid Cape Cod to immediate MA/RI South Coast, and outer tip of Cape Ann MA, 3-6 inches remainder of Cape Ann MA, MA North Shore including Boston, MA South Shore to Providence RI area and southeastern CT, and 6-10 inches for the balance of the region including all of southern NH, and generally west of I-95 in the majority of eastern MA away from the coast, northwestern RI, and east central to northeastern CT, through central MA as well, with isolated bands of 10-12 inches possible favoring higher elevations of central MA and southwestern NH. Low pressure finally pulls away Sunday evening with any lingering snow ending. I’m not expecting huge wind impacts from this system, with maximum potential wind gusts of 30-50 MPH confined mostly to Cape Cod which will be closest to the deepening low center as it starts to pull away. This may lead to some minor coastal flooding and wind damage in that area. The power outage risk is not as great as a recent wind and rain storm, but exists in areas that will see a heavier and wetter snow for the first part of the storm, mainly I-95 eastward. Behind this system comes a tranquil winter day on Monday with lots of sun but cold air. Monday night will get quite cold as light winds over a snow cover combine with clear sky to produce good radiational cooling. Our El Nino pattern will keep us on our toes as the expected active pattern of January goes on, sending another storm our way with increasing clouds Tuesday and another precipitation threat by the end of the day. We’ll look at this in more detail next update.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, diminishing during the afternoon.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 17-24. Wind N under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Highs 33-40. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clouds thicken. Snow arrives overnight but may start as mix/rain coastal areas. Lows 28-35. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Overcast with snow likely except snow or rain coastal locations especially south of Boston until midday before those areas go over to snow. Highs 33-40 occurring in the morning, then falling temperatures in the afternoon. Wind E 10-20 MPH with gusts above 30 MPH in coastal areas especially Cape Cod through midday, then shifting to N 5-15 MPH except 15-25 MPH coastal areas during the afternoon.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with lingering light snow showers in the evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH but higher gusts.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 31-38. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 12-19. Wind calm.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Rain/mix/snow possible by late day or at night. Highs 33-40. Wind calm becoming E 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 10-14)

Active pattern. Storm system impacts the region January 10 with most likely track just to our west with the precipitation ending up as mainly rain before drier air arrives along with plenty of wind. More detail on this system to come. Another storm threat exists by late in the period (around next weekend) which may be in a colder set-up and have a better chance of including snow.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 15-19)

Fair weather to start. Next storm signal is in the January 18-19 window. Temperatures variable, but near to above normal for the period.

261 thoughts on “Friday January 5 2024 Forecast (7:29AM)”

  2. Thanks, as always, TK !

    Tom
    JANUARY 5, 2024 AT 7:32 AM
    As we come into the 12z runs, my 2 questions and 1 comment are ……

    1) How moderate or heavy is the precip on the lead stuff Saturday overnight

    That lull Sunrise Sunday to maybe early afternoon now seems to be quite a lull, precip wise. That won’t do near the coast when the boundary layer is at its mildest.

    2) The last part, how long does it take for the back side to get invigorated a bit. Seeing some hints that might occur a bit further offshore, which, I believe would impact coastal snow potential.

    1. These would be the exact points I’d make that impact the totals most. The last part is indeed the largest wildcard as far as I can tell. I think the coastal issues earlier in the storm are pretty clear cut at this point.

    2. I mentioned this all last night . Seems like a lot is riding on the second front & if it’s delayed that’s big . I appreciate all of the experience above but I’m sticking to it as I do not see 3-6 on the south shore & do see Logan recording that . I will eat crow 5x a day if I’m wrong .

        1. I doubt it . And error it was I do not see Logan getting that & if anything ( IF ) maybe bring out some salters tail end not plows

          1. So what do see you outside of Logan where people live. I thought you said no snow from Boston to the Cape.

  3. Good morning and thank you TK

    My early thoughts are it looks like a disappoinment for my area.
    Ocean temp is 44.2 this morning. JustcTOO WARM to support snow along the coast with a 20 mph East wind. Any accumulating snow has to wait till the wind shift.
    The models have been trending LOWER on snow totals.

    I am sticking with my previous early call of 3-4 inches for my location and that may be high. We shall see.

    In short, I am NOT impressed.

  5. Thanks, TK!

    Yesterday was the latest sunrise till the fall. And, this weekend the sun sets at 4:30!

    Today marks the coldest (well, one of three) coldest days in Massachusetts history, -35, set in Taunton 120 years ago, January 5, 1904. There was a massive fire that night at Taunton State Hospital. Fortunately, there were no souls lost, but it must have been so miserable trying to fight that fire!

  6. Thank you, TK, for your exceptional write up. I copied to send to family but am now thinking I’ll send a link so they can come here to read.

    2. That’s how the Woodshill virus starts – sending a link to the blog. Fast forward two weeks later and you find yourself ranting about how wishcasters on twitter are hyping up storms two weeks out and you have the facts to prove it! lol

      I’m always sending direct links to posts for friends when they ask me for more details and I find myself at a loss for words.

      1. Truth. Fortunately I send to immediate family and they are more interested in details than blaming.

  9. re: Elongation of system

    A thought on the elongation: It would seem to me that
    this would allow for a longer period of Easterly Wind.
    Not a friend if you like/want snow out of this system.

    We would have been better served with a nice tightly wound system. That would even allow more of a NE wind instead of the fakakta EAST wind! Or at least a much shorter period of East wind.

    AH, but that ain’t the case, is it. We have to live with it.

    Oh Well.

    Bring on the next one. OH wait that is a Western tracking rain/wind event. OK bring on the next one. OH wait, that is likely a West tracking one as well.

    So where are all the good snow makers?

    Go West young man, Go West!!!!

    3. Matt Noyes the only one low balling this. I’m putting my money on him. From the hype on TV you’d think we won’t be digging out of this until February. Unconscionable how bad it is

  13. Nice write up TK

    I agree with the numbers. I like around 6 inches in JP. Interior south shore areas could be a surprise jackpot IMO.

  14. HRRR is NOT depicting anything remotely resembling heavy precipitation.

    Surface 7AM Sunday

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2024010512&fh=48&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    BUT look at this 850 mb chart for 7AM Sunday

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=850wh&rh=2024010512&fh=48&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    That screams like intensity SHOULD Pick up.

    12Z HRRR Kuchera Snow as of 7AM Sunday. Much More to come.

    Maybe I should rethink my numbers?????????

    Oh this is fun. 🙂 🙂 🙂

    we’ll see what the 18Z HRRR looks like. 🙂

    1. I agree, but that time frame is right about the start of the expected middle part lull from near sunrise to just after noon.

  16. Thank you TK, great write up. Also thank you Dr. S for posting the graphics for these storms, nice to have them all at your finger tips.

    1. good 850 mb inflow too.

      Its about a 3 hr window and its the afternoon, so, if the storm’s performance is judged prior to early afternoon ……….

        1. 21z, so 1 or 2pm or so near Boston to 6pm near Cape Cod Canal. A couple hr duration in each location.

          1. At best, that is 1 inch per hour, at least as depicted.
            too bad it wasn’t 2-3 inches per hour. 🙂

  21. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=sn10_006h-imp&rh=2024010512&fh=60&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    6 hr snowfall, concluding at 00z Sunday evening.

    This is coastal eastern Mass’ window.

    Its possible during phase 1, overnight Saturday night, a burst of heavy precip leaves 1-2 even at the coast prior to sunrise.

    During the sunrise to 1pm, probably no accum near the coast.

    But, in sum, the coast can still realize 2-4 or even 3-5 if both phase 1 and 3 produce.

    1. Could, but I think the models are missing the ocean influence.
      Coast ONLY snows after winds back, IMHO
      I think it RAINS until 1PM or so near the coast.
      That EAST wind is a snow KILLER!!!!!

      1. Oh, I’m coming around to that as well. IE rain in the middle.

        That projected snowfall is 18z to 00z.

        But, I do think there’s some room for the first phase, even at the coast. And yes, phase 1 could start as rain at Logan and definitely Marshfield, but I think there’s room for a little wet bulb cooling and a possibility of a batch of heavy precip.

        Then the marine air reasserts control heading into the lull.

      2. Did anyone see Pete last night.

        He had mixing ALL the way to 495.
        He also expected rain along the coast and also said possible mix and IF it was snow it would be the consistency of
        mashed potatoes or even oatmeal!
        He was serious but hilarious at the same time.
        Loved his presentation!

    1. Notice jack pot interior SE MA. Interesting.

      These models are all over the place.

      We won’t know for sure until we know.
      Sounds a little like Yogi Berra. 🙂

      1. It’s probably a function of multiple things all of which combine to affect temp by 1F

        1F here in eastern areas is the difference btwn a solid 6 inches of snow vs hours of mashed potatoes falling that mush to 1/2 inch.

        1. Absolutely!!!
          You could have 1/2 inch to 2 inches at your house and drive 5 miles and there would be 6+ inches and another 5 miles and there would be a foot+ 🙂 Or even less than 5 miles in each case. 🙂

          We shall see.

  23. There is an extension of a high to our northeast that has to be factored in for phase 1, even at the coast. Look ….

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=850th&rh=2024010512&fh=30&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=850th&rh=2024010512&fh=36&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    True in eastern areas.

    But look at the slice that’s cooled in CT and central Mass.

    That’s probably a sign of heavier precip that’s cooling the column.

    There is a signal there for phase 1 to overcome the marine layer for a while.

    1. So far I have NOT seen precip intensity enough to overcome
      the marine layer. That could change, but I am not seeing it
      portrayed on models at this time.

      Perhaps you are 100% correct and I hope you are.

      I am just going on past disappointments as the marine layer
      DESTROYED snow forecasts! 🙂 🙂 🙂

  24. I’m going to have fun

    for Logan Airport

    Starts briefly as rain

    Heavy precip changes it to snow for a 2-4 hrs prior to sunrise Sunday and they receive btwn .75 and 1.25 inches of snow

    Its light rain or mixed (if it precips heavier) from sunrise to just after noontime. Temp maxes btwn 35F and 37F.

    Btwn 1 and 3pm, there’s a temp drop into the mid-upper 20s accompanied by a band of moderate to heavy snow that drops another 1.5 to 2.5 inches of snow.

    Btwn 3 and 6pm, it snows lighter and they pick up another .25 to .50 inches.

    1. This is fun. Thank you both. I often think this is the best part of the storm….or almost the best. It sure does add to the anticipation

    2. Very possible.

      I’d still wager RAIN at Logan until about 1PM give or take. 🙂

      It will be fun. It already is fun!!!!!

      1. Here in JP, could go either way, but I’d wager we start as snow, go over to rain and/or mix then back to snow. How long it is rain/mix makes for the wild card for snow accumulation.

        I am STILL in the 3-4 inches camp for JP. 🙂

          1. It shows 0.00 inch for Logan. 🙂
            Perhaps an inch or a bit more for JP.
            This would be in line with my thinking.

  28. Tim Kelley Tweet

    NAMfousBoy:
    “Finally ~ (after taping OTD) ~ Looks pretty snowy in BOSton to me. Cold enough to overrule wind off 44° water.. at least a couple miles inland anyway.. still thinking 13” somewhere..

    2. HA HA HA
      My 76 year old snow blower will have to get to work on Sunday. 🙂 🙂 Don’t know IF I have enough wind left to do the job. May have to shovel instead.

  32. Interesting results from the 12Z UKMET.

    Here is the total 10:1 snow

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmet&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2024010512&fh=72&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    BUT here is the total QPF

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmet&p=qpf_acc-imp&rh=2024010512&fh=72&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Well over an inch in Eastern MA, yet 10:1 snow totals are 1-3 inches near the coast and about 4 inches inland a bit more.
    Thus the 10:1 total should be a foot+ IF all snow. Therefore, one can conclude that the bulk of this storm falls as RAIN on this particular run.

    Either the snow algorithm is messed up, or it is mostly RAIN!!

    YIKES, can we please get some consistency!!! PLEASE!!!

        1. I am probably wrong, but have never paid a lot of attention to the NWS maps. Not because I don’t trust them. I just have focused on our Mets and now of course here

    1. Well if we don’t feel good by tomorrow afternoon, just sit back and see what happens. 🙂 🙂
      One would think we’d have a good handle on it right now.
      NOT so. Just compare ch 10’s map with the others. 🙂

  34. Thanks TK.

    So much for model agreement one day in advance of the storm.

    On a positive note, 12z CMC looks a bit colder for the midweek storm…back to the idea of front end snow/ice and hinting at some late coastal redevelopment.

    Both the 12z GFS and CMS have trended further east/colder for the MLK weekend storm as well. That one still a ways off…

    2. I was curious so, I through that into google.

      There is. what appears to be a community called, Pembroke Pines, somewhat west northwest of Miami.

      If that was them, they are on a long road trip today. 🙂

      1. It definitely said “Pembroke Massachusetts” on the side of the truck. And the passenger had a margarita in his hands.

        Needless to say, the plow blade was up…

  36. Greetings from sunny Tempe, AZ. Having taken a quick glance at the 12z data, I’m not making any changes (yet) to what I put in my blog yesterday:

    Cape Cod: Coating – 2″
    I-95 corridor (Boston-Providence and points South+East): 2-5″, lowest along the coast
    Areas North+ West of I-95: 4-8″ with isolated totals to 10″ possible.

    I may bump things up a tad north and west of I-95 to 5-10″ with isolated 12″, but for now I am not going to make that change. I will look again tonight after the games when I can see the 00z data.

    Off to explore the Valley of the Sun for a bit before we start pregaming in a few hours. Faceoff for Lowell vs Omaha is at 5:30pm EST (3:30 out here)

    1. Your dedication to the UMass Lowell hockey team is amazing !

      Good luck to them and enjoy the Valley of the Sun !

    2. It’s great that you are there to support the team. I hope that it’s a good game and that Lowell can get the W!

      1. I’m also the “official meteorologist of River Hawk Radio”. Our play-by-play guy (who I have been friends with for 30+ years), started calling me that years ago. But, I just gave a quick briefing to some of the people in the Athletic Department out here for the trip that also know me and what I do. They are concerned (rightfully so) about flying home on Sunday.

  37. I would submit that the basic meteorology of the Sunday event is well agreed upon.

    Its that critical 1F that is causing snowfall projection differences.

    That’s it, in my opinion.

    I’m not sure there are many changes coming in the meteorology of the Sunday event.

  40. I do love the block feature on fb and Twitter. My list is increasing with inane comments about meteorologists.

  41. 12z GFS ….. 850 mb inflow, simulated radar, sfc temp projection

    for 18z

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=850wh&rh=2024010512&fh=54&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2024010512&fh=54&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sfct-imp&rh=2024010512&fh=54&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Boston temp projection 33F and falling

    for 21z

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=850wh&rh=2024010512&fh=57&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2024010512&fh=57&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sfct-imp&rh=2024010512&fh=57&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Simulated boston temp: 26F

    That afternoon snow burst starts out briefly wet in Boston and steadily becomes drier.

    With a NE to N wind, that powder will be blowing off roof tops and skimming on top of the wet layer of snow on the ground.

    And those wet roads are going to snow cover up quick and have ice (where not treated)

  42. Euro only at 18z because its next frame is at 00z (too late)

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=850wh&rh=2024010512&fh=54&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2024010512&fh=54&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sfct-imp&rh=2024010512&fh=54&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Euro nearly identical.

    There’s that 1F though, projects Boston at 34F. (I know its showing mixed, but I think it will be snowing)

  43. Winter Storm Warning
    for Southern Worcester County

    Issued by National Weather Service
    Boston, MA
    2:24 PM EST Fri, Jan 5, 2024

    …WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO 1 AM EST MONDAY…

    * WHAT…Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 12 inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

    * WHERE…northern Connecticut, western and central Massachusetts as well as northeast Massachusetts.

    * WHEN…From 4 PM Saturday to 1 AM EST Monday.

    * IMPACTS…Travel could be very difficult.

    * ADDITIONAL DETAILS…Snow overspreads the region from west to east roughly between 5 and 9 pm Saturday evening. The snow will then become heavy and fall at 1 to 2 inches for a time Saturday night. There may be a bit of a lull in the snow for a time early Sunday…but a second round of steady snow will redevelop later Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon. The snow should finally come to an end sometime early Sunday evening.

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

    If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency.

  44. Thanks, TK. I’m starting to ponder my early Sunday morning drive to Natick and midday drive back. ?

    1. It took the 850 mb low and sfc low further north.

      I’m going to believe it’s an outlier unless 00z runs do the same.

      If true, everything simulated is too far north and west.

  50. Geez it took me forever to each the bottom of the comments! You’d think there was a snow event threatening. 😉

    JPD don’t bother with the HRRR. It doesn’t do well with this set-up. Save yourself the worry. 🙂

        2. Changing my handle to JP Mark tonight if the NAM does not improve for Tolland County as the expletives will be flying!

  52. This is way cool. WPRI in RI broke amounts down by town.

    https://imgur.com/a/7zVinpA

    And then in the comments,,someone wanted to know why Exeter wasn’t done by east and west and another goofball (feel free to change that to the actual word I was thinking) said “meteorologists say 4-6….see, they don’t even know how much we are getting. “

    My daughter just said I’ll have all of FB blocked soon

  53. On a positive note, 12z Euro was colder for both of the next systems.

    Not enough for a big difference in SNE on the Tues/Wed storm but NNE gets a prolonged period of snow/frozen if that solution verifies. Better news for the ski areas.

    More snow/frozen potential for all of New England with the MLK system. Not quite there yet for SNE but up front snow possible and very close to something bigger with a jog a little more east. That is another potent system modeled.

  54. Better chance with MLK weekend system for wintry precipitation in SNE. It is looking like half a foot of snow for my area with the storm this weekend. I will take that and run.

  58. I haven’t really had much time to update my thoughts on the systems that come after this next one, since I’ve been focusing on this one.

    Basically, my ideas haven’t changed much. Keeping in mind the lower confidence as you get further out in time, I still feel that the guidance will change its tune a little bit on the Tue/Wed system to a colder introduction and therefore we’ll probably have to forecast accumulating snow for parts of the WHW region Tuesday evening/night before the rain takes over. Caveat: That rain may fall into an area of below freezing air somewhere before the temp goes up. We’ve seen this pre-game and game-time setup for this system many times in the past, so experience talking here. SAK and I have talked a bit about this before he left for his trip and no doubt it will rapidly become the main focus once we have the weekend system winding down.

    Fast forward a bit. Watch for a cold front that may include snow showers/squalls around January 11.

    Looking ahead I like the idea of a colder storm with a legit snow threat for our region during the early portion of the MLK Jr Weekend. Obviously we have a long way to go, but I’ve had my eye on *about* January 13 for quite a while now.

    1. Yes you have. Looking forward to it. 🙂

      RE: this system
      I don’t like how the models are ALL over the place.
      And the difference between the NAM and 3KM NAM is striking.

      If I had to choose, I’d go with the 3KM NAM.

      GFS is next out. At least the system isn’t that far out, so just maybe the GFS will have a decent run????

      1. I think the subtle differences between the various short range models themselves and the differences between the short range & global models in this particular set-up are triggering a whole range of things on the outputs. When this happens, I stick with the meteorology-derived idea I have and make very few adjustments. I still feel comfortable with it. I reassess each time a new suite comes out.

    2. Regarding the Tue/Wed system….I noticed guidance has already been starting to change its tune today. First time thus far I have actually seen a CAD signal on the 12z Euro. Per my comment above, gets at least NNE into the game for some decent up front snow/frozen.

    1. In earlier, out about the same time really. Only a couple to a few hours difference on the front end as things saturate a bit more quickly due to a more juiced up initial precip shield.

  62. Well it’s about 30 hours until the first flakes and things are still moving around a little. I think my area just went from “Watch” to “Warning.”

    1. The NWS upgraded where they are most confident and left the rest as a watch, which can either go to warning, or be changed to a winter weather advisory once they have it nailed down.

      1. I sort of thought it might go back to a Watch though for some reason I just saw a TV Met who might want to bring higher amounts further east but said he hasn’t done so yet. I didn’t catch the thinking behind it.

  63. I read Eric’s new twitter posts.

    Now I’m a math teacher, so my reading comprehension is not my strength.

    To me, his new posts come across like Sunday is ho hum and Saturday night is the show.

    Compared to Taunton’s 4pm discussion update, they point out the temp drop in eastern areas and the possible afternoon pickup in snow for a bit in eastern areas Sunday afternoon.

    Just kinda surprised in the different tone of the 2 takes.

        1. Taunton says something to the effect about the chill above and that, in the initial thump, the boundary layer may only effect within 1-2 miles of the shore.

          1. am. Ptype is a
            bit trickier near and southeast of the Boston to Providence
            corridor…but it is quite cold off the deck with 850T between -6C
            to -8C in the general vicinity. So despite modest east
            winds…initial thump of precipitation will probably be snow except
            for perhaps parts of the Cape and Islands. It is possible that
            within a mile or two of the immediate eastern MA coast…there may
            be enough boundary layer warming to result in mixed Ptype and
            limited accumulations with the initial thump.

          2. This may be more interesting than I first thought.

            I still think we’re going to see rain at the coast. THe wrinkle here is only 1-2 miles from the coast. With en EAST Wind I am more like 4 miles from the Water.

            Hmmm, interesting…..

            Thanks Tom

            1. Those 850 mb temps matter.

              I personally think, so long as the mod-heavy burst goes over Jamaica Plain, that you will be happily surprised Sunday morning.

              Then, you’ll just have to survive the lull and brief mid 30 temps.

            2. I was never really buying the BL issues going TOO far inland, hence the sharp gradient.

              It may hang where it sets up for a while, but I suspect if Boston is raining for a while Saturday night, they’ll be over to snow before dawn on Sunday.

                1. It may struggle down that way early on, but Sunday during the day it’ll have no problem by noon on when a flash freeze coincides with the 2nd batch of steadier snow. In fact, the warmer temps at the outset kind of screws that area over more than where it stays all snow. Potential for very icy conditions underneath new snowfall Sunday PM and untreated surfaces can stay very hazardous into early Monday.

    1. This is about where it should be.

      GFS 18z Kuchera minus 1-3 inches (depending on location).

  66. It’s very telling the NWS has not expanded the warnings into the areas that still have watches. My expectations have been significantly lowered for the areas along I-95

    1. They actually bumped my snow total (Woburn) up by 2 inches on the latest update. I was around 6, now I’m 8+.

      Petey B has 3-5 for me. I have me in 6-10. In fact, NWS’s “low end” snow for me is 6 inches which is higher than Pete’s upper limit. Somebody is gonna miss, but we’ll see who!

        1. He has the same one, and he makes a good case for it. I almost pulled my #’s down closer to his but for now I have left them the same until I see the 00z guidance.

          1. Thanks. I have been watching for him but has the feeling he has the day off to work this weekend. I’ll look again

              1. Yay. He didn’t do the 4:00. He must be on tonight. Thanks. Just turned 10 on. And will record the news. Thank you!!!!

        2. My #’s are closer to the NWS “low end” amounts.

          We still have the same 2 wildcards in play. How far west does the marine influence get at the same time the first area is coming through, and then how intense is part 2. And it all comes down to interpretation of info. You can make a case for the lower, or the higher, and only one of them is going to be what happens. The fun of prognostication. 🙂

  67. Actually I was just looking at NWS a bit closer. They have 8-12 area in a zone that does not yet have a winter storm warning. If they have anything over 6 forecast there should be an automatic WS warning. So there’s a mismatch there. I wonder if it’s just a miscommunication between shift changes. Personally, I think the 8+ they have for me is a bit high.

  69. From content weather guy on X, smart guy.

    “Elongated low centers, zonal occluded, can keep colder advantageous winds in play across coastal sections longer. It is going to be a curious one along the south shore of New England and nnj/nyc/sw ct region.
    18z gfs/nam. 925mb. Sunday am.”

  70. Seriously thought about climbing Mt Major early today but temps were too cold. Also the trail reports were indicating some stretches of ice and the need to strap micro-spikes onto boots and wear a helmet. Didn’t want to get into that while climbing alone. This storm and ones behind it will bury these mountains, especially at the tops, so for me climbing in NH is over til the late spring. 🙁

  75. 00z NAM run is definitely colder. Question is how much sticks. Probably piles up on grass and side roads.

  76. I think the flash freeze is going to be the bigger issue. Ch7 saying in Foxboro the storm is done around 4pm

    1. Yes it will be a huge deal but there will be snow as well. Not sure why you insisted all week that nothing would happen.

    1. This doesn’t look too far off from what I was thinking though I think I’d pull some of those blues a touch more on shore.

    1. Even the snow depth change shows 2.2 inches at Boston and the dark blue 3 inch contour just west of the city. And even up to 1 inch just beyond the bridges.

      Probably good to blend the snowfall 10:1 and kuchera with this.

    1. I sure remember Charleston. My youngest sent me video after video that I shared here.

      Will it be a repeat for them?

    1. The gdps has this 3rd system as a snowstorm for the southern 3rd of New England.

      Very busy 10 days ahead.

  86. Great write up this morning from the NWS regarding both upcoming system.

    https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

    WSW hoisted for Boston 4-8 and the wildcard is 2nd half of the system. Comma head and how west that ends up, they are saying eastern areas might have to be increased as well. Sure Logan might end up with 4 but the burbs clearly have a shot at 8+ from their write up. Again just passing on info. Saw SAK also increased his amounts. Clearly the key is the strength snd ability to mix down enough cold air which now appear very doable.

    And just for you SSK: Temps cold enough to support snow throughout the region, except the
    Cape and Islands where mainly rain will occur. In the coastal plain
    including Boston, 2 meter temps from the hi res guidance warms to 34-
    36 but then cools back to freezing, as cold temps aloft combine with
    increasing precip intensity for wet bulb temps to be realized.
    Hence, snow covered roads all the way to the south and east coast.

  87. And 2nd system on Wed looks very impactful, my goodness taking about hurricane force gusts for the waters and High Wind Watch for land

    As have stated over the past couple of days and continues to be the
    case, signals are pointing to another impactful weather event.
    Appearing to be a multi-faceted system bringing strong to damaging
    winds, heavy rainfall, coastal flooding and river flooding. Lastly,
    or more firstly we could have some accumulating snowfall across
    portions of the higher terrain (a front end thump of sorts) before
    changing over to all rain.

  88. Hopefully that storm system won’t be as bad as the one we had back on December 19th which came with a lot of power outages and basement flooding for some people.

  90. Good morning,

    Looking serious now. consensus now is for no or very little rain along the coast.

    Winter storm warning for boston, except logan

    https://www.weather.gov/box/

    https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=BOX&wwa=winter%20storm%20warning

    URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
    National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
    253 AM EST Sat Jan 6 2024

    MAZ013>016-RIZ001-062100-
    /O.UPG.KBOX.WS.A.0001.240106T2100Z-240108T0600Z/
    /O.EXA.KBOX.WS.W.0001.240106T2100Z-240108T0600Z/
    Western Norfolk MA-Southeast Middlesex MA-Suffolk MA-
    Eastern Norfolk MA-Northwest Providence RI-
    Including the cities of Foxborough, Norwood, Cambridge, Boston,
    Quincy, Foster, and Smithfield
    253 AM EST Sat Jan 6 2024

    …WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
    1 AM EST MONDAY…

    * WHAT…Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 12
    inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

    HRW-V3 shows a very impactful 2nd partF

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrwfv3&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2024010600&fh=43&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrwfv3&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2024010600&fh=50&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

  92. FINALLY A KOWABUNGA from JpDave!
    I think that second part could deliver for you up there. It looks like the front end thump will be the main action for my area at the moment.

    2. Those are actually lower level stratus from an inversion, and not the shield from the storm.

  95. That HREF run is good for your area as well. There COULD be a dent put into these snowfall deficits if everything comes together just right.

  99. The grey sky is stratus from an inversion. Those are not from the cloud shield of the approaching storm. The cloud level is about 3,800 feet. You could see them migrating in from the west overnight at first, and are now drifting more to the south and southwest due to a change in lower level winds.

  103. Quick look at the HRRR run and it is still running gets the rain mix area up to the CT MA and boarder then just south of Boston around 7am -8am after an initial burst of snow. Then around 10am that rain mix area gets pushed to the south as part two is coming in.

  104. I’m working on the blog now but with my phone, so it might take a bit. I’m in another window of it to type here in the mean time. 🙂

  105. Now moving forward with the 12z HRRR nice band of snow coming into the Boston area around 3-4pm Sunday afternoon which works it way down to the South Shore and Cape.

  109. Just checked ocean temp at boston buoy

    43.7

    air temp out there 34.7

    hoping for best intensity precip to leep it snow. Hopefully that is the case. hrrr and icon still depicting rain for cosstal areas.

      1. probably correct.
        I was convinced itcwoukd rain.
        not so convinced anymore. looking like yiu and Tom had thevrightvidea. oh well win some, lose some. looking good.
        Jp should come in around 8 inches or so and possibly more
        yup double my 3-4 inches.

        Not for nothing but the few runs have seen this morning show virtually NO lull in Eastern sections.

        Should be interesting.

        The bummer part is in a couple days rain and wzrmth take it all away, but at least we will have had it

Comments are closed.