Saturday January 6 2024 Forecast (9:22AM)

586 Comments

The first thing to note this morning is short-term. Many of you saw the day dawn overcast. It is hard to tell at first look but the clouds that blanket a good portion of the region are stratus from a lower level inversion between 3,500 and 4,000 ft. These clouds crept in overnight mostly from the west and northwest and are now drifting more to the south and southwest due to a shift in the near surface wind. I did not have this cloud deck forecast accurately in yesterday’s update so it is here in somewhat of a surprise fashion, at least in terms of my expectations. While this is going on, the expected high cloud shield is overspreading the sky from the west southwest in advance of our coming storm, which I will dive into talking about in a moment. The lower clouds are showing a bit of a clearing trend from the northeast so there can be the reappearance of some filtered sunshine especially from the NH Seacoast through parts of eastern MA during this morning into the midday hours before we start to see the cloud shield from the storm system lower and thicken as the day goes on.

We are going to be impacted by two significant storm systems during the next 5 days, and while the second one may be rather significant in its own way, we obviously need to deal with the more imminent one first. Synoptically, there isn’t a lot of change really at all between yesterday’s discussion and today’s. We are still looking at low pressure emerging off the northern Middle Atlantic Coast and moving east southeastward with any elongated center passing just to the south of New England. This takes place while a cold high pressure area is centered to our north and northeast. This system has two main parts to it. To summarize what you read yesterday, we have the first part which consists of a good punch of precipitation coming in this evening, mostly late evening. There may be a finger of moisture a head of the main shield that brings some snow to southern New Hampshire before most of the rest of the region sees anything. But by late evening we should have a precipitation shield overspreading the entire area falling in the form of snow for most. The exception is going to be coastal areas and especially southeastern MA, where enough warming takes place from an easterly wind off the ocean to result in a snow-rain mix or just rain for several hours. If the precipitation intensity is great enough somewhat colder air above can overcome the surface warmth and some of the coastal areas, including Boston, can go back and forth between rain and snow. That is something we’ll have to observe as it happens. This first part of the storm is going to produce the bulk of the snowfall accumulation for interior locations, northeastern Connecticut and northwestern Rhode Island up through central and interior northeastern MA and across much of interior southern NH. There will be a general lull in the precipitation as we reach the pre-dawn hours into about mid-morning on Sunday. Snow will still be falling but more lightly over interior areas while the coastal areas that were seeing rainfall will probably continue to see some light mix, rain, and drizzle. When we get to midday and afternoon on Sunday, things change fairly quickly and in some areas significantly. This is when the back side of the elongated low pressure area, which will be intensifying at that point, drags in cold air and also starts to develop an enhanced area of precipitation – mainly snow, and flipping any areas still rain over to snow all the way out through Cape Cod before it ends in the early evening. This second part of the storm will deliver the bulk of the snowfall accumulation from Boston southeastward. Regardless of how much snow accumulates from this part of the storm, perhaps more importantly will be the flash freeze that occurs as temperatures fall quickly into and through the 20s in places that were near to above freezing for many hours. This will cause any wet snow, slush, and water to freeze up rapidly. Untreated surfaces will become very slippery and this will last through the morning hours of Monday while the temperature remains below freezing. A partial melt will take place during the day on Monday as the temperature goes above freezing in most areas that saw the flash freeze. But the sun angle is still fairly low at this point in January and it is going to be quite cold Monday night so anything that melted, if still not removed or still an untreated surface, will freeze again. Please keep this in mind if you have to walk or drive outside at any point through early Tuesday. One thing I did not touch upon yet and before I forget to, wind and coastal flooding are not going to be a significant part of the storm for most of the region. There is a slight exception in that the winds can gust over 30 MPH and perhaps as high as 50 MPH for a portion of the storm, especially Sunday midday and afternoon, along the immediate Coast of Southeastern MA and across Cape Cod. This, combined with somewhat wetter snow there for a while, may lead to isolated power outages. I’m not expecting this to be a widespread issue, however. As for Monday’s weather, it will be a very nice winter day and the chance to catch our breath between the first storm and another one that will be racing in our direction. This is likely to be a very potent low pressure area that will pass just west of New England Tuesday night and early Wednesday. The main concerns with this system are several. At the outset, we are going to have some stubborn cold air in place, and the guidance doesn’t tend to see this very well yet and will probably over forecast the warmth initially that will be impacted by a fresh snow cover from the first system. So the concern is for a punch of snow Tuesday evening from the early part of that storm, most likely away from the coast based on what will most likely be a southeast wind warming the coastline more quickly. But basically anywhere north and west of Boston is vulnerable to a period of snow, and some higher elevations can see a significant accumulation of it before the air above warms enough to shut the snow down and change it to rain. And even when that happens there may be some interior locations that are still cold enough at the surface that freezing rain can be an issue. That is something we will start to look into in more detail once we get beyond this first system. The other aspect of that storm is once we are beyond the early storm precipitation issues, we are in for quite the wind and rain event lasting into Wednesday morning, in which flooding and wind damage will be concerns. Again, more detail to come as this event draws closer.

Before I get to the main forecast breakdown, for this first system here are my snowfall amounts, and these are totals for the entire system. Keep in mind that there may be some areas that have little or no snow after the “part one” is finished, that will be receiving the vast majority of the snow from “part two”.

Outer Cape Cod, Nantucket, Martha’s Vineyard: 1/2 to 2 inches mostly midday and afternoon Sunday.

Rhode Island and Massachusetts South Coast to coastal Plymouth County MA as well as the tip of Cape Ann MA: 2 to 4 inches.

Coastal NH through Eastern Essex County MA through Boston to Providence including I-95, to Southeastern CT: 4-8 inches.

Interior southern NH through central MA to northeastern CT: 8-12 inches.

Keep in mind that even in these ranges there can always be pockets of lighter or heavier amounts due to local effects and mesoscale to microscale synoptic anomalies. I will try to update these during the day on Sunday when I am not outside doing snow removal. 🙂

Next is the detailed forecast…

TODAY: Limited sun for some areas through midday otherwise mostly cloudy. Highs 33-40. Wind N-NE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Overcast. A mid evening period of snow near the MA / NH border into southern NH, then precipitation over spreads the entire region in the form of snow except rain or snow coast and rain Cape Cod. Lows 28-35. Wind NE-E 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Overcast with snow likely except snow or rain coastal locations especially south of Boston until midday before those areas go over to snow. Highs occurring early to mid-morning ranging widely from 28-35 northwest of Boston to 35-42 Boston south and southeast, followed by a temperature fall into the 20s from northwest to southeast midday on. Wind E 10-20 MPH with gusts above 30 MPH in coastal areas especially Cape Cod through midday, then shifting to N 5-15 MPH except 15-25 MPH coastal areas during the afternoon.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with lingering light snow showers in the evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH but higher gusts.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 31-38. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 12-19. Wind calm.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 33-40. Wind calm becoming SE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Rain arriving except a period of snow than freezing rain possible some interior locations. Lows 30-37 evening, then rising temperature overnight. Wind SE 10-20 MPH inland, 20-30 MPH coast, with higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Overcast with rain morning. Breaking clouds with additional rain showers afternoon. Highs 48-55. Wind SE 15-35 MPH with potential stronger gusts, shifting to SW.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 11-15)

An active weather pattern continues. Watch for a cold front to deliver colder air by late January 11 with rain and snow shower chances. Winter storm possibility around the beginning of the MLK Jr weekend, with fair weather to follow later in the weekend.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 16-20)

Fair weather to start. Next storm signal is in the January 18-19 window. Temperatures variable, but near to above normal for the period.

586 thoughts on “Saturday January 6 2024 Forecast (9:22AM)”

  3. Sun is shining here in Woburn as the stratus deck erodes from NE to SW revealing a cirrostratus shield above it.

    1. I believe you should be all set on the “white” part Jimmy! It’s only Boston & southeast that rain gets involved.

        1. Hadi there will be rain involved in areas of Boston !! But don’t worry your yard will be the jackpot in the entire area .

          1. Just pointing out facts, and no clearly JP isn’t the jackpot. But you’ve saying all week no snow, and clearly there will be snow.

              1. You are saying not much rain in Boston & rain will be involved or mix for many Boston areas like Logan

  7. I know there are a few typos in the post. I’ll get those fixed momentarily. One was a very funny malfunction. 🙂

    1. We can read it with or without. You have enough to do. With a write up as long and detailed as this, I think typos are the least of our worries. Really exceptional. Thank you, TK

  10. Good morning and thank you TK.

    I was looking at the available 12Z runs and to me, it now appears
    that there won’t be much of a lull at all in Eastern sections.

    And one more observation, it “appears” that the higher resolution models are showing the most snow for this system,
    particularly the HREF and the HRDPS.
    Exception the OUT TO LUNCH HRRR!!

    I agree with HADI regarding the anticipation……AND despite
    what the forecasts are, nor one knows for certain what will happen. 🙂

    temp 34 here with dp 25 I will be watching those, most especially this evening as precipitation moves closer. 🙂

    Current wind direction NW, Will really be watching that!

    temp 36 at Logan with 5mph wind from WNW
    ALREADY NOT LIKING THAT.
    I’d WAGER LOGAN sees “some” RAIN.

  12. GEEZ, will these models STOP showing RAIN!!!

    12Z RDPS

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2024010612&fh=24&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2024010612&fh=24&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2024010612&fh=30&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Kuchera Snow

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2024010612&fh=60&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

              1. I could, but why try for a model like that one? Besides it’s an inside joke with my son. 🙂

  14. So, for the seagulls who live at Logan, they start as a mix, then go to snow, then go back and forth rain & snow for several hours with intensity fighting with east wind warming. Eventually they go snow and stay snow. But the bulk majority of the snow that falls there will be from late morning to mid afternoon tomorrow. And there’s quite a potential with the comma on the back side of the elongated low as it starts to pull away. These types of systems can and often do deliver to the coast very late in the game, but can sometimes really deliver.

    I could see Logan getting 4-6 inches of snow in a 3 or 4 hour period if the comma produces to potential. And the same chance exists right down the South Shore INCLUDING the coast, maybe more like a 3-5 inch burst for those areas, atop a flash freeze.

    The cleanup may be harder in Plymouth County by the time this is over than it will be in my area, for example.

    1. I am surprised to see Boston in 5 to as much as 12 inch range – good thing it’s coming on a Sunday and not a work/school day

  15. TK, question. I’m just getting going. My retired self that was up at 6:00 is now up at 9:00ish.

    Is the flash freeze as risky out this way or more along the coastal areas and inland from there

    I detest ice equally as much as I love snow.

    1. Much more an issue closer to the coast. I suspect you are all snow there, maybe a bit wetter at first, then drier as the storm goes along. But your area approaching 10 inches of snow will have more volume to move, just without a sheet of ice underneath like may happen closer to the coast.

  17. Well see Dave? My reverse psych worked. I kept telling you “after January 10” so we’d get one before. 😉 I knew it all along, right? 😉

    Actually, this system initially did not look like too big a deal to me. I figured the smaller nature of the system gave us a higher percentage chance of it not being a significant snow producer in WHW land. And not an unreasonable thought at the time nearly a week in advance. But as it turns out, a fair amount of the region is going to do quite well when a 30 to 50 mile shift one way or another would have had completely different results. This is why we don’t lock things in based on model guidance so far in advance. 🙂

    1. Absolutely!
      This one may not go down as a “block buster”, but after last Winter and the Abysmal December, this will be just fine, whether it ends up as 4-6, 6-8, or 8-12. All is Good.

      I am MORE PISSED OFF about the next upcoming storm.
      It really gets me that we finally get some snow as a BIG TEASE ONly to have it taken away 2 days later. !)@((#)(!@*#)(*!@()#*!)(@*#)(!*@#)(*!@)(#*)!(@*#)(!*@#)(*!)(@#*)(!*@#)(*!@)(#*)(!*@#)(!*)@#(*!)(@#*)(!*@#(*!@)(#*()!@*#)!(*@#()!*@#(!@()#*!@(#(!)(

      1. Dave, just out of curiosity, do you use a standard keyboard, and if so, are the keys that contain the characters (!@*#) worn out to the point you can’t read what’s on them? 😉

  18. Thanks Tk . Yes flash freeze is absolutely the last thing you want & is incredibly dangerous. Any snow removal folks will tell you they Would rather a foot of snow vs a lot of ice . Ice is bad !!!

    1. It may end up really hazardous down that way. I’m quite concerned about it. Unfortunately the warmer ocean and rain / wet snow at the start is making that a big issue once the cold arrives.

  19. Patientenly awaiting the completion of the 12Z RRFS-A
    run as it appears to be MUCH BETTER than it’s cousin the HRRR.

    1. Still experimental and they warn not to make decisions off it, but I’ve been impressed with its performance on both convective and to some extent stratiform precipitation events.

      1. On this event, it “appears” to be performing better than the
        HRRR. Of course we won’t know for sure until late on
        Sunday. 🙂

  20. The current / upcoming pattern is somewhat similar to that of January 1978, but somewhat less dynamic than that pattern.

    Kind of a January 1978 Junior. 😉

  21. Thank you TK nice write up this morning.
    I don’t think we will see any in the front end in central ma, but with a rapidly deepening low off Nantucket do you think there are some chances for some thundersnow/ sleet in eastern areas tomorrow afternoon?

    1. Slight chance, not zero. 🙂 If it happens, somewhere Boston to Plymouth in the first half of the afternoon.

  25. On this date in 2014, in Lexington KY, a prisoner fled a minimum-security mail on a chilly but manageable day in the 40s. That evening, when an arctic front dropped the temp to near zero with a wind chill near -20F, the escapee knocked on a motel door and asked to be taken back to jail.

    #TrueStory

  27. Walked the shore this AM and it was 10 degrees warmer than yesterday and no wind. Quite a difference.

    In my area, we have gone from a Watch to a Warning and from 1-3″ to 3-6″ to maybe 4-8.” I am in a tricky area for this storm and I favor the lower amounts. But as others have said, it’s just fun to watch it unfold and the endgame will be whatever it will be,

  28. Thanks TK.

    20F here at Killington and I can attest to the inversion going on. Lower half of the mountain is in the clear and the upper half is in the clouds.

    Unfortunately the last time I was here with my son on 12/9 I got a stress fracture in my foot so I am still out of commission for awhile and sitting here in the lodge on my laptop. Dont want to risk re-injuring myself as we have trips to Sunday River Maine planned later this month and Lake Tahoe in March.

    There is a light natural snow cover here and they are blowing a lot of snow on the trails. A few miles from the mountain however and down in elevation the snow cover is zilch.

    Fortunately a WSW is up here as well for 6-12″.

  29. Here’s hoping my and everyone’s snowblowers behave and perform well tomorrow after a light lift last winter! Snowblowers or snow “lift and throwers”…. Be safe and ask for help when needed. We have 2 of 4 neighbors away — one in NZ, so some extra fun tomorrow. Thanks for the great info from all. Extra effort to get things cleaned up tomorrow PM.

    1. One of my FB friends has a 19 year old snowblower that’s seen little use the last few winters and it fired up right away. They don’t make ’em like they used to! 😉

  30. Another sunny but chilly morning here in Tempe (dropped to 39!) As you all saw, I updated my blog last night – don’t expect to update it again before the storm. Supposed to fly out of PHX at 10:30 tomorrow night to land at Logan at 5am Monday. My only concern is that the incoming flight to PHX never gets out of Boston Sunday afternoon, so we get stuck here. Assuming we do get out, digging out my car at Braintree Logan Express Monday morning won’t be fun.

    Oh, and on the ice, Lowell blew a 3rd period lead and lost in OT. Story of the season so far. Today, we play Harvard in the consolation game at 3:30 (5:30 EST). We beat Harvard in a closed scrimmage earlier this season, so I have some hope that we can win today.

  32. So the event start is not all that far away and the models are still all over the place.
    I think the global models are out to lunch.

    I am going with the high resolution models.

    One thing that concerns me is the model TK doesn’t particularly like, the HRDPS

    12Z 10:1 snow is WAY down from 0Z and has much rain involved. ALL 3 Canadian models show the dreaded RAIN!!!

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrdps/2024010612/hrdps_asnow_neus_36.png

    6Z 10:1 snow

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2024010612&fh=42&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    0Z 10:1 snow

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrdps/2024010600/hrdps_asnow_neus_48.png

    Clearly a DOWNWARD trend in the total snowfall

    Here is the precip depiction at Midnight tonight

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrdps/2024010612/hrdps_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_17.png

    Raining all the way to 12Z

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrdps/2024010612/hrdps_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_24.png

    Is SOMETHING UP? Or is this model just full of Crap.
    It does concern me as I am worried about my initial fears of rain.

    1. It’s probably good to have this scenario, cause it could happen.

      The 2 things that will bust the snowfall for you are:

      1) the initial thump is not moderate to heavy

      What will bust snowfall for marshfield is 1) and ….

      2) the backside happens for 1 hr and not 3

  33. Thanks TK.

    All in all, I don’t think I would have crafted forecast ranges any different than yours. But in terms of a couple “things to watch”:

    The immediate Boston metro and South Shore are definitely a battleground in terms of ptype. With this type of setup, I’d lean lower on totals in those areas within a few miles of the coast near and south of the city. I could see Logan struggling to get past 2-3”.

    The other watch item for me is where the “jackpot” bands set up, because there should be some localized 12+ amounts. Think the Worcester hills are a good place to watch for that. But also wouldn’t rule out further east towards the 495 belt – as they say, sometimes you need to smell the rain to end up with the most snow. And those further east areas could cash in on the secondary “wrap-around” surge tomorrow.

    But these nuances aside, a solid moderate to borderline major winter storm is on the way for most of the region. Then we would move on to what could be a very high impact storm middle of next week…

    1. Thank you WxWatcher.

      Question for you. DO you share the same dislike of the HRDPS model as does TK?

      Either way, what is your take on the amount of rain involved that it is depicted. I, for one, Am concerned. Hopefully, needlessly.

      1. Honestly, I don’t use the HRDPS much at all these days because it’s domain doesn’t cover my forecast area, so it’s dead to me anyways 😉

        But when I was back east, I definitely used both it and the RGEM. Not as the end all, be all obviously, but they had their moments. Either way, what they’re showing is a real signal, it’s just a matter of whether it’s right or not, and they’re either going to do quite well or quite poorly…

        It’s likely this will be very rate-dependent. Even the models that are showing more snow at the coast have it falling at 33-34 degrees. If some of the heavier banding sets up near the city and the coast, they could do alright with that, but if they miss the banding, it’ll likely be a double whammy of lower QPF and a greater portion of it as rain…

        1. Thank you WxWatcher for your honest assessment.
          So, hopefully, it will be all or mostly snow, but at the same time I do have reason for concern.
          It was my concern all along.

          AND the current ocean temp at Boston Buoy is:

          43.7

  34. On the 2nd system, not only is there a 980 mb ish low to our west, but there’s a 1,030 mb ish high to our east.

    Uh oh.

    I can see inland, lower elevations have some relative chill and snow cover create an inversion and somewhat try to keep the wind at bay, but within dozens of miles of the south and east coasts where it gets mild, that’s the storm to load up on bread and milk for.

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2024010612&fh=96&r=ca_e&dpdt=&mc=

    And the signal for coastal Maine ……

      1. Me too.

        Since a little kid , I have disliked seeing a quick loss of snow.

        I think that bad guy that locked frosty in the greenhouse traumatized me 🙂

  36. OK, can someone explain this to me????

    Here is 12Z UKMET data.

    We have the total qpf

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmet&p=qpf_acc-imp&rh=2024010612&fh=42&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    For those following at home, that shows “about” 1.33 inches
    of water equivalent for Boston.

    Now the 10:1 snow map “SHOULD” shoe 13 inches for Boston, no? WELL it DOES NOT!!!

    It shows about 9 inches. SO what the bleep gives with that????

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmet&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2024010612&fh=42&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    I would LOVE to see the INTERESTING answer to this question.

    2. The middle part of the storm.

      Either snow not being able to accumulate at above 32F temps or even some light rain for a bit.

      That’s my guess.

          1. Yes exactly and you’re a math teacher.
            that 1.33 at a 10:1 ratio would equate to 13.3 inches of
            SNOW, yet the map shows 9 inches.

            SOMETHNG IS WRONG THERE!!!!!!!

            1. So I’m guess I’m suggesting that the model doesn’t think at all points in the storm, especially the middle, that ….. that will be the ratio.

              For a while, maybe it jumps to 50:1 you know, during a time where it’s 34 or 35F and it’s lightly snowing or mixed, but it’s not accumulating. But you are using up some of that 1.33 total.

              2. NO, not the case.
                When they say 10:1 ratio that is the rartio being
                used to produce the snow map, ELSE
                it would NOT be a 10:1 ratio, It would be somehting else like Kuchera or some other method.
                It clearly state 10:1 snow.

                https://ibb.co/pXGK17J

          2. Yes, the amount of Water equivalent. Quantitative Precipitation forecast.

            If they forecast 1.33 inches then 10:1 snow would be 13.3 inches and NOT 9 inches.

            I say again and again SOMETHING IS WRONG!

  37. Vicki, I think on the 2nd system, Charleston won’t get to 4ft surge again and the tides are a little astronomically lower. The storm is approaching on a different track and so more of a parallel south wind for them as oppose to onshore (SE)

    But our south coast and Maine. That high to our east and us square in the middle of a 50 mb pressure difference.

    Oh boy, the south coast and Maine coast storm surges could be 4+ ft, and I’m concerned a bit higher than that.

    1. Haha, thanks Vicki – I know you saw my tweet, but it was memorable for sure.

      Context: There was a M4.2 earthquake centered just a few miles north of me yesterday. I was home, and it was the first quake I’d felt since moving out here. So it being my first one, combined with the fact that a 4.2 is a pretty decent size jolt to begin with, made it pretty startling. It felt like there had been a major explosion very close by, or that a car/truck had hit the house. While earthquake was my first thought, I really wasn’t sure because it was so fast, 5-7 seconds, tops. But when you’re that close to the epicenter, it tends to be a shorter/sharper jolt versus a longer “rumbling” shake further away. Needless to say, we’re perfectly fine, no injuries/damage, but it was interesting 🙂

      2. Where did u move out too? Where I’m at we get earthquakes with one back in early December having one north of the island at 4.6

      1. I think the subtlest secondary push, maybe call it in reinforcement arrives this afternoon.

        Maybe not noticeable in ground temps but to hold those 850 and 925 mb temps in place and not let them moderate.

        This courtesy of a slight extension from that high to our north and northeast.

  42. Bruins and celts both at 7 pm tonight will be a nice warmup “band” for the overnight “main event”!

    1. I was fortunate to be at last night Celtics game. They were up 30 on Utah by mid 2nd quarter.

      It allowed the starters to play under 30 minutes, so they’ve given themselves a chance to win on the 2nd night of a back to back at Indiana.

    2. Remember the days when that used to be a nice warm-up act for a Sunday Patriots game? 🙂

  43. Busy times around here. Thank you for the excellent blog TK. Also thank you to everyone that contributes on a daily basis. Matt Noyes had a technical discussion that may help answer some of your questions JP regarding the snow growth areas and drier air at different levels.

    On another note, I’m sorry to hear of the loss of your brother Vicki I will do a chaplet of Divine mercy for him and Dr S. Family as well.

    Now casting soon be careful out there tomorrow.

      1. Wouldnt assume cutter yet by any means. CMC on the 0z run had a snowstorm passing to our south and east. Still far out and two other storms to get through first.

    1. You should cap there and sit between 33 and 36 until about late morning tomorrow after which it will fall to the 20s.

  46. For those concerned about temps.

    From content weather guy on X

    “Wind direction is not southerly and it wont be except over SE NJ/PA DelMarVa. Most everyone cold fetches.
    Moisture moving into dry dewpoints. A good recipe to drop temperatures, tighten up that cold thermal gradient, add in heavy precip and its going to be interesting.”

    2. Well he’s talking about that area. But regarding up here, an east wind is not a cold fetch wind for this area. And that’s how this one starts out before it shifts more northerly for the second half of the storm.

  47. As of noon-thirty, WBZ & NBC Boston have the same snow maps as last night and are quite a bit lower in the Boston Metro area vs. the NWS forecast.

    You may have noticed that on my update today, I added an inch or 2 to my totals, this being the result of a little more confidence about the part 2 wildcard of the storm.

  49. Logan still 36, but wind is now EAST at 6 mph.

    Keep it that low, I don’t want a stinken East wind at
    20 mph ahead of the storm!

      1. That’s just the snow accumulation for a particular 3 hour period tonight. Not sure if that is 9-12AM or 12-3AM but regardless, those would be the rates at the height of the storm when the heaviest snow comes through. Wouldnt maintain those rates for the full duration of the storm.

    2. Looking at the HRR this reminds me of that storm in November 2018 where it came in and dumped several inches of snow in a few hour span.

  53. 2nd system coming into SPC’s 3 day window

    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk_0830.gif

    The most significant severe weather potential still seems likely to
    await the development of the stronger dynamic forcing for ascent,
    and related rapid surface cyclone deepening, which may impact parts
    of southeastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi into southern
    Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle by late Monday night, if
    not earlier. Inland boundary-layer destabilization coupled with
    intensifying wind fields, including south to southwesterly flow of
    50-70+ kt in the 850-700 mb layer, could contribute to an
    environment potentially supportive of strong tornadoes. This may
    accompany the evolution of both discrete supercells and an
    organizing line or cluster of storms prior to 12Z Tuesday.

    The amount of different hazards over vast areas is concerning on system 2

    Deep South severe weather, narrow big snowstorm west of track, ocean and fresh water flooding possibilities eastern third of US and wind issues along east coast and in some areas of the Great Lakes.

    1. Just nasty. Thanks Tom. Nothing I think we will look forward too with the Same feeling we have for this one

  54. On the current storm, I’m at the point mentally where I just need to see what happens now. I don’t think I can absorb another model’s take on it 🙂 🙂 🙂

    So, like BB’s “we’re onto Cleveland”, I’m onto storm 2 🙂 🙂 🙂

    1. That’s an ugly scene for Wednesday and yes I am ready for whatever comes tonight. Super migraine so I know the weather is changing.

      2. Oh ugh. My youngest and I started with headaches which tells us the same. But migraines are headaches in steroids. I hope it goes away soon

      1. And they would deserve it !

        I feel for them and the other businesses up there.

        I hope that could work out.

  57. One thing is certain during the time frame of potential storm 3 …..

    New moon near perigee with astronomically high tides.

    If storm 3 materializes, whatever coastline that gets a decent onshore flow is going to have flooding problems.

    1. For instance, Boston’s high tide Saturday Jan 13th is at 12:17pm and forecast at 11.4 ft

      By comparison, tomorrow’s 7:20 am high tide is 9.2 ft

      At 11.4 ft, there’s really no room to take on a surge.

      A 3 ft surge would be 14.4 ft and that’s a problem.

      1. Applies at any coast.

        If storm 3 materializes and it goes west, then it’s the south coast.

        Providence RI tide tomorrow is 3.9 ft tomorrow, it’s 5.2 ft on Saturday the 13th

  58. That’s a great look on the Euro for NNE for storms 2 and 3. The up front snow on storm 2 would offset whatever rain falls in the latter part of the storm and the warmup at the end isnt too long or extreme. They will get through that OK.

    Storm 3 is all snow and even interior SNE does well for snow on that run N/W of I-84 and I-495.

    12z Euro run total snow at 10:1 for all three storms:

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2024010612&fh=240&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Look at those amounts to the north!

      1. To clarify it may not be heavy snow or even reaching the ground but what’s falling from the clouds is more than in the lighter shades.

        1. I think this radar differentiates in intensity vs precip type in the mode it’s currently in, but that could be wrong 🙂

    2. On radar scope, try the precipitation depiction mode.
      It will clearly depict rain and snow, not always 100% accurate, but gives you a good idea.

        1. Click on whatever radar mode it is on and scroll up or down. When you see precipitation depiction, click on that.
          easy peasy,

          There are a bunch of other modes, but the most important one for sever season is storm relative velocity. This is where you will see the couplets for rotation.

          Cheers

  60. 12 EURO shows a lot of mix and RAIN!!!

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2024010612&fh=18&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2024010612&fh=18&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2024010612&fh=18&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    10:1 snow Look at that crap along the coast!!!!!!

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2024010612&fh=48&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    I have seen enough! I am BACK to some RAIN along the coast!!!!!!

    1. NWS taking down the winter weather advisory for Plymouth County and replacing it with a flood warning.

      They haven’t pulled the trigger on the heat advisory yet though…..

  61. 12Z HREF 24 hour snow ending 7PM Sunday (0Z Monday)

    https://ibb.co/XW7Vtcx

    This would not include any snow prior to 7PM tonight or after 7PM tomorrow night, so there is a slight possibility that this would not be the storm total, although likely would be.

    This is down from 0Z, but still very healthy compared to other
    models today!

    1. Oh I cut off part of the scale. The yellow represents
      12-15 inches and the brown 15-18 inches. 🙂

  65. JpDave, l really enjoy your up and down on the coastal rain/snow chances with each model that comes out.

    May the 18z’s be all in the snow favor !!

    I’ll take 0 snow here at my house if the trade off is 6 or even more for the whole event at Jamaica Plain.

    1. Well, I’m NOT!

      I want to know: Is it going to snow or RAIN. This back and forth and maybe so, maybe not, I dunno crap!!!

      I WANT it to snow, but my past experience here SCREAMS RAIN
      up front.

      I guess I’ll know when it gets here. Monitoring temperature
      for sure.

      36 here, but dp has crept up to 27. NOT liking that!

  67. Although the radar display looks interesting, I just check all
    of the 2PM reporting stations in CT and NOT a single station
    was reporting snow.

    So far, the snow is aloft, sorry to say.

    1. Snowing in Western NY, NJ and PA for sure.
      So, it looks like we are about 5-6 hours away from snow
      reaching the ground, UNLESS as the system approaches
      it produces more precip and saturates the column quciker,
      then we could see it reach the ground sooner.

      Saw a MODERATE SNOW report for Morristown, NJ

      obs from State College PA, HEAVY SNOW!

      State College – University Park Airport, PA
      (KUNV) 40.85344N 77.8401W

      2 Day History

      Heavy Snow
      28.0 °F
      Last Updated: Jan 6 2024, 2:53 pm EST
      Sat, 06 Jan 2024 14:53:00 -0500
      Weather: Heavy Snow
      Temperature: 28.0 °F (-2.0 °C)
      Dewpoint: 28.4 °F (-2.0 °C)
      Relative Humidity: 100 %
      Wind: Calm
      Visibility: 0.25 miles
      Altimeter: 29.78 in Hg
      Latest Raw Observation

      So, it’s out there!!!

  68. I remain in camp TK with the general idea that

    1) a burst of heavy precip overnight flips any immediate coastal rain to a period of snow. If it materializes, I like 1-2 inches at my house and Logan. 2-4 just west of that and of course, further inland, more.

    2) morning to very early afternoon lull. Mix/light rain close to coast. Mildest temps occur.

    3) mid afternoon on: temp drop to mid 20s and burst of snow in eastern areas. If it materializes, it can put down 1-3.

    Snowfall bust within 10 miles of coast if no heavy precip tonight and the backside either intensifies too late or moves too fast.

    1. I took the blower out if needed & got salt and gas but so much is riding on this second piece coming in & this storm is not hanging around it’s gone by late afternoon & any delay will hinder that , we have seen this scenario many times . I’m still going with more rain than snow & yes this includes Boston . I’m off tomorrow so I’ll sit back & watch it unfold & I could care less what it does .

    2. On that NAM run, I used the coordinates of my location and moved the mouse to match. 6 inches for my location on that run.

  73. https://radar.weather.gov/station/KDIX/standard

    It might not, but I wonder if the next 1-2 hrs what happens here in northern NJ/NYC can offer any insight into about 10-12 hrs from now.

    What I’m thinking is ….. this probably started as rain, the ocean is every bit as mild down there and there 850 and 925 mb temps are likely a little milder than we will have above us.

    So, let’s see if they flip to snow the next couple hrs under these heavier echoes.

  78. Milder scenarios if you will don’t currently verify.

    They could up our way, can’t 100% say they won’t.

    But, I’d be leary of them.

  80. And mt Washington is at 14F.

    I thought I saw 16F a while ago.

    Broken record but precip intensity tonight.

    That’s the key.

  83. Once my hands thaw from putting out bird seed, I’ll check the dp here. The Kestrel has 17.8. Maybe 9 earlier Temp is now down to 33

  84. FWIW, the 18Z RRFS-A is looking Good for Boston N&W, not so great South of the city. Will post final Kuchera when run is complete.

    2. I think I misread something? My head is spinning.
      It is fine outside of the city. The city doesn’t do so well.
      Still shows some rain for 2-3 hours.

  85. Hi All, it is snowing really well up here in Essex! Grass is not completely covered yet but the roads are.

            1. Oh my. I have not been since 2019 and I miss it terribly. I am very jealous. You are at my two favorite ocean areas in our state.

  92. Nice NWS write-up

    https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?format=CI&glossary=1&highlight=off&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&site=BOX&version=1

    One main take away:

    The strong dynamics will be working against
    marginal/warm surface temperatures for the coastal plain of MA as east winds blow 25 to 35 mph off the water, but should be able to overcome it to accumulate to some extent away from the immediate shore. This remains the biggest uncertainty with the forecast.

    IMHO NOTHING will over come a 25-35 mph EAST WIND!
    We shall see.

  96. Just went for a brisk walk in South Dartmouth – breeze picking up from East – while it feels wintry it doesn’t have that “snow smell” in the air – feels like we will get a good dose of a cold rain

    1. Too high in the city, I think anyway. 🙂
      We shall see.

      Did you see the nice plum of ocean effect moving
      from the ESE to the WNW Was up by Gloucester, but now
      had slipped South to Beverly

      https://ibb.co/sQPd2Ns

      1. I did, thanks !

        I saw some pictures sent to Eric F from that area and was trying to look and see what the snow was like. Drier vs wet to get any clues about how the column is doing. No luck, lol !

          2. The ravens have clinched the 1 seed, I think they are sitting Lamar Jackson today.

            I think this game matters greatly to the Steelers for playoffs.

  102. FWIW, the Times Square cam in NYC shows it’s snowing.

    I’ll check the icon and see if it thinks it should be raining or snowing in NYC around 04z …..

            1. I don’t recommend during Christmas Season.
              I’ve NEVER seem so many people. You don’t have to walk on the side walk, they just push you along. 🙂

  103. The ocean effect snow on the North SHore is slowly slippy SOuth.

    Is that representative of the Wind shifting from ESE to more
    Easterly? If so, we might see some of that in Boston Prior
    to the main precipitation shield arriving. 🙂

    1. Could it be a sign of a piece of that polar high to our northeast east nosing in at some levels above us ? For sure, it’s been simulated for days at 850 and 925 of the cold holding or even slightly chilling off in eastern areas late Saturday afternoon into the evening.

        1. Agreed, that’s true. Too bad it wasn’t a 4-5 hr wall of heavy stuff.

          I’d guess closer to 2 hrs of real moderate to have stuff.

            1. Same idea tomorrow afternoon.

              Probably 1-2 hrs of a steady burst.

              Wish that backside wasn’t moving so quick.

      1. Impressive call Vicki! Today was the first day that my sump pump hasn’t run since the last rain event.

        I need to check my sump pump’s securely settings on the internet? 🙂

    1. I don’t know, but when I clicked your link I got this warning:
      “This post may contain erotic or adult imagery.
      By continuing, you acknowledge that you are 18+ years of age”

      I, of course, clicked and saw your map!

    3. You found precipitation depiction mode. Fun, eh?

      If you see red that Is mixed and/or sleet. In this case, likely mixed.
      Orange would be freezing rain.

  108. Caught a little bit of rain here. Temp still 35 and as TK said, it will stay that way for a while. Then the temps will go to 32-33. I’ll move from very light rain/drizzle to mix to snow. Question I have is will it all freeze over tomorrow?

    1. Dinner time. We just finished. 🙂

      Won’t be around much the rest of the night.
      Rummikub and then TV night with the MRs. We usually
      watch a movie on Saturday night, but we’ve seen all of the good ones. We may catch the holdovers. Has anyone seen that one?

      We have been re-watching Outlander. We may continue with that? Don’t know just yet. Whatever the Mrs. wants to watch. 🙂

  110. Down to 30 here in Sharon, SW of the city, with a DP of 23. The stage is set. I don’t think I see any rain down this way. Can’t wait to see what the Pats game looks like on TV with the snow flying!

  113. If that holds on and when it comes into the areas in SNE that could support snow look out. Sugar coating so far on the pavement.

  116. Things look like they are on track! Some rain will certainly mix in, but still like 6-8 in our area. Retrac looks like he’s in the jackpot some.

    2. Maybe, maybe not. This one is extremely tricky.

      So far the temp and wind is behaving.
      I’ve seen a similar set up where there would be as East wind
      at 20mph and temps in the low 40s already.

      SO…SO FAR SO GOOD!

      We’ll just wait and see. 🙂

  118. Those echos are insane. I see 3”/hr in those bands. They should hold together from the looks of it.

  121. As JpDave pointed out, it’s interesting the ocean effect band is sagging south.

    Normally they start somewhere on the mass coast and move a bit northward.

  122. Take a look at this tweet from someone down in NJ

    Fairly impressive dynamic cooling on display across NNJ as heavy rates have attenuated the warm air push & temporarily collapsed the mix line

  123. Snow starting to pick now where I am. Some dry air to deal with a little while ago but now that snow is making it to the ground.

  126. Dry the whole ride from VT back to CT. Having dinner now in Manchester CT and still waiting for the first flakes.

  129. Latest HRRR run has 2”/ hr snow rates here in the Hartford area around midnight. Assuming that will hold together as it heads NE into MA as well.

  131. I stepped away about 300 comments ago.Has anything been locked in? Sounds like models are still battling it out.

  133. NY has just tied Boston in the snowfall standings with 0.2 so far from this storm. That tie won’t last long and Boston will be back in the lead by tomorrow.

    1. Good luck tomorrow, I am torn. Would love to beat the Cowboys but want the 2nd pick so can’t believe I am cheering for a loss.

      1. Thank you Hadi. This draft is loaded with QBS and with a loss tomorrow the Commanders are in a great position to get one of the top QBS Drake Maye or Caleb Williams. We got two gifts last weekend. First with Brad Allen the official in the Cowboys Lions game with the eligible receiver and with the Cardinals beating the Eagles. Let’s take care of business tomorrow and get the two seed.

  138. 7am – 2pm tomorrow all high 30”s ( 36,37 ) & starts dropping at 2 pm where it drops to 30 down this part of the south shore with the storm winding down after 4pm .

      2. I can very much see your mild morning temp verifying but I don’t understand the delay part.

        The temps have always said to be falling in the afternoon.

    4. Temps are running several degrees below what’s being modeled. So if you are getting those from accuweather or another app then they are off. So I wouldn’t assume anything. But I am sure you knew that.

  140. I bought a frozen crow at stop and shop the other night. I’ll thaw it and bring over to SSK’s for dinner tomorrow night on the way home from the Pats game 🙂

    2. Would welcome you with open arms & plenty of beer & booze even though I do not drink . We are always being told we host the best parties & I’ll have a nice fire going

      1. Sounds good but you’ll have to let me know how good the roads are first before I drive over there. 🙂 Warning: the crow doesn’t look very good. Scrawny and bony…not much meat.

  143. Leaving dinner now in Manchester CT and it has started snowing at a decent clip. Immediate coating on the parking lot pavement and cars.

  144. In my opinion and to be fair, I can see sitting here tomorrow night with Logan and coastal SE Mass to about 10 miles inland having gotten not much overnight and then maybe only an inch on the backside tomorrow.

    Even in this scenario though, I do think the temp drop is impactful cause the roads would be wet and they’ll coat with that 1 inch of snow.

    I don’t think it will be this light, but I don’t think it’s 100% off the table.

  145. Mesoscale Discussion:

    SUMMARY…Moderate to heavy snow will slowly increase in coverage
    across portions of southern New England this evening. Snowfall rates
    of 1-2 in/hr are possible within the heaviest band late this evening
    into the overnight hours.

    DISCUSSION…As of 0130 UTC, regional radar and surface analysis
    showed a broad area of stratiform precipitation ongoing across parts
    of the Mid Atlantic and southern New England. Associated with an
    approaching coastal low, periodic moderate to heavy snow/rain has
    been observed within this precipitation over the last several hours.
    Slow northeastward progression of the heaviest precip has been noted
    with the primary east-west oriented band stretching from
    east-central PA to Long Island Sound. Driven by strong low-level
    warm advection ahead of the deepening coastal low, moderate to heavy
    snow should slowly increase in coverage over portions of southern
    New England late this evening and into the overnight hours. Rates
    between 1 to 2 in/hour are possible within the primary band, though
    there remains some uncertainty on how quickly the heaviest snow will
    lift northward. Light snow has already been reported across parts of
    RI, MA and CT but, regional model soundings and observed ceilings
    above 4k feet suggest some low-level dry air remains in place.
    Inland moisture advection and the approach of the surface low should
    slowly cool and moisten the low-level thermodynamic profile
    sufficiently for higher snow rates after 03z. Periods of moderate to
    heavy snow will likely continue into the overnight hours.

  146. Snow here. I yelled it’s snowing and three grandkids flew down the stairs.

    Ten year old Evan reported a one flake accumulation on the table

    1. Anyone know how much accumulation there was in the north shore? I wonder if Allison is still reading. It sure looked to be going over and over that area

  151. I am late to the party but thank you TK!

    Hope everyone enjoys what Mother Nature decides to throw our way.

  153. When all the coastal towns have power outages Wednesday, the good news is ……. relatively speaking, there’s not a big push of super cold air following that storm.

    1. Tom are we possibly looking at an exact repeat storm that took place a week before Xmas , lots of damage in pembroke from that one

      1. I’m afraid so.

        Maybe because it’s a little cooler, it can help stabilize things to ease the wind some, but we might be in the middle of a 980 mb low and a 1,030 mb high.

        The analogy to this is standing btwn 2 big buildings on a windy day in downtown Boston. It’s like a wind tunnel.

  156. Into the heavy band and ripping snow now here in Coventry. 29F and about an inch on the ground now. This is easily 1”+ per hour snow.

    1. I should say in Back Bay, as Boston has many neighborhoods with variations in weather, in winter and summer.

      1. I think Providence gets more snow than Boston, certainly from the first batch. Coastal communities are being impacted by our mild winter thus far – well above normal water temp.

  159. Not optimistic about our future snow chances in Boston and vicinity.

    A combination of lows traversing to our west (Tuesday) and overall mildness (take a look at Tuesday to Saturday in Boston – and we’ll be in mid January (!) by then, likely not a nighttime temp at or below freezing. This, my friends, is happening way too often, as we also know from December. Also, still have not had a single night reach the teens where I am, and there’s nothing on the horizon that suggests we’ll have teens in our future.

    2. This pattern change is gradual really. The active transition period spoken of in the winter outlook is underway.

    3. Winters have changed but doesn’t mean less snow though 🙂 less cold 100% accurate. I don’t really look at Logan and the Seagulls that live out here. I look at where humans actually live.

      1. I am actually not on FB. Only LinkedIn and Twitter (which I don’t post much on, just use it primarily for following Mets). This blog is about all I have time for in my free time!

      1. We really need to take those things down before they blow away on Wednesday. Still got all the trees up inside too!

  164. The OES was a nice bonus … 0.6 inch of big phat phlakes at Woburn, now I have a mix of rain and wet snow.

    Also, for model watchers, not that it’s a great tool, but the ICON has been added to Pivotal Weather.

    1. It has me thrown off trying to select on my phone, lol. It’s like when they change the mailboxes in the teachers room …..

  165. I know the 00z GFS is another view for the current system but I’m staying up to see if it maintains continuity on storm 2.

    Only around 90 hrs away.

    As it stands, we’re in the middle of a 980 mb low to the west and a 1,030 mb high to our east.

    That is very very concerning.

    1. When I saw that starting to take shape as it is, my mind went right to the two powerhouse storms we had like that in January 1978, both very warm snow-eating rainstorms here. One of them was Chicago’s “Blizzard of ’78”, just 11 days before ours.

      1. I think I remember that rain storm more so because it caused the school’s roof to partially collapse in the main building at Pike School in Andover.

        We lost a week for that, obviously more time in Feb. We hardly went to school that winter.

        1. LOCK
          IT
          IN

          Actually, I expect a cold February, but dry.

          February 1978 was cold and very dry. There was ONE storm that month.

  168. TK is correct that it’s gradual change with respect to the climate. But, having spoken today in person with a farmer and an Audubon veteran as we surveyed birds at a refuge, the trend is not only definite in terms of temperature it has caused rather extraordinary changes in bird migratory patterns. Many birds that previously migrated don’t anymore. It’s a pattern shift that has occurred over a relatively short period of time. So while it’s gradual on one hand, it’s actually rapid on the other, compared to previous changes in terms of its impact on the ecosystem. One other illustration, many ticks are not only surviving winters now, which they did not do before, they’re thriving in winter. I was shown how this is playing out on the refuge I visited.

    1. I have noted some birds that used to be absent seem a little more in abundance during most winters these days.

    2. My oldest has been counting birds and species for Audubon. I
      For anyone on FB, please check out wildlife of Worcester county and beyond. I’ve followed birds for decades and have never seen as many different species. Just say Vicki sent you.

      In addition to more birds wintering here, species thaf once were not north of us are now heading there

  174. Precip intensity increasing and I’m seeing wet snow flakes mixing in.

    It definitely cooled off a bit with the precip getting heavier.

  176. That band from the Hudson River valley over into southern Litchfield County near JJ is very intense. Snowing up to 3”/hour in that band per NWS.

    2. Sorry JpDave.

      Though I’m not giving up hope you will turn to wet snow before this heavier stuff moves off.

  179. Absolutely pouring here for quite some time now in hingham. Got to relax a bit watching saturday NFL games.

  183. Up to 4” here in Coventry and still snowing heavily. Radar looking lighter and choppy to the SW though so not sure how much more we are going to pull out of round 1

  184. Well, definitely gotten precip intensity, but clearly, I got the marine layer wrong. Very wrong.

    Very frustrating.

    I know it’s my hobby, but I like to get it right.

    I knew I was in trouble accuracy wise about 9pm.

    Milder than I expected and windier than I expected. The wind accompanying and east of the coastal front.

    Well, we’ll see if the backside can do anything.

      1. Yes, but I also expected 1-2 at Logan and my house in a changeover burst tonight and 2-3 in say a Jamaica plain and I don’t think that will happen now.

        I can see some areas flopped from rain to snow but I thought it was going to do that along the immediate coast and so far, no go.

  186. I was going to help make it to 500 tonight but am passing the baton to tom and mark. You have 35 to go….i think

  188. Still coming down too hard to go to bed and the back edge of this heavier stuff is taking it’s time to get here. Will stay up a bit longer until it lightens up and then get another measurement. I think we will pull out at least 5” for round 1.

  191. Just heavy rain and 35F in Boston.

    Rain extends pretty far from the coast, by the way.

    Backside snow later tomorrow? Well, yes, sure … maybe an inch. Frankly, in my lifetime backside snow has not featured as a real thing very much.

    While it’s only weather (unimportant in the grand scheme of things), I am very disappointed with what we’ve gotten in terms of temperature and snow and will get in what I consider the foreseeable future this `winter.’ I don’t see anything remotely close to winter on the horizon. I am sorry, but I do think we have to be realistic. Projections of real cold and snow down the road … say, more than 7 days from now … well, count me as extraordinarily skeptical. Periods of a day or 2 of 30s during the day and 20s at night just do not count.

    1. Keep in mind this isn’t backend snow like we usually look for. It’s the storm actually occluding and coming together. And I could be totally off here.

      Btw REGM clearly had the right idea with temps and it’s also showing that potential.

  192. Very happy to see jpDave’s post at 1:30 and hoping he’ getting some accumulation ! I see a decent band still in that general vicinity.

    Catching the Lawrence switched to a N wind and is down to 27F, temporary or early return of coastal front ???

  193. First half didn’t deliver much here, clearly different story inland. I think folks will be much happier with round 2.

    1. Same for me, but I will say there is slick pavement. Was thinking I would walk the shore during the lull, but not so confident about the footing.

  194. Snowinh heavily now, bot ONLY a coating on the ground. The marine layer I was worried about delivered big time.

    34 here.

  195. The coastal front is slowly sagging southeastward.

    Add in Worcester and Hanscom AFB for having experienced temp drops.

  200. Straight rain the entire night here. I’ve enjoyed it! Less for me to shovel after round 2 later today. Maybe if I’m lucky it’ll all be rain in my area lol

    1. I’d say phase 2 is underway with the temps dropping just to
      the North of Boston.

      Worcester is down to 21 !!!!!

      Bedford 25.

  204. It is already snowing quite heavily here in NE mass and I imagine in most of eastern mass based on radar

  205. Just rain here overnight and now. Heavy rain at times. Still well above freezing. Stuck in the 34F to 35F range.

    By the way, the lack of cold means the water temperature isn’t going to be our friend at the coast in future storms this winter, unless we get a dramatic change in pattern (which I do not expect), with actual real cold to our north (non-existent thus far this winter with any of the Canadian highs in our region). We haven’t any true cold this winter, folks, and it’s going to warm up this week for an extended period once again. About a 90 to 96 hour stretch without the mercury hitting 32F in Boston, in mid friggin’ January (!), mind you. It would be one thing if this was a thaw. It’s not. It’s happened again and again and again in December. Can you tell I’m pissed about this non-winter or extension of November! I know I shouldn’t be. It’s just weather. There are MANY more important things in life.

    1. Joshua, I am with you!!!

      Hey, you can’t be more than 2-3 miles from me and you have RAIN and it is SNOW here. Amazing!!!!

  206. Yawn……
    Good morning.
    Still snowing here, light to perhaps moderate.
    Perhaps 1/2 inch on the ground. Yup that’s about it.

    Temp 35

    No drop in temp here as of yet.

    On radar, it looks like phase 2 is getting underway. Yeah I know early. Unless this is a last gasp of phase 1???? I dunno.

    I KNEW I should have stuck to my guns on the marine layer.
    GEEZ it stared right off the bat as RAIN with temp already up to 37 with a freshening EAST WIND!!

    At 1:30 AM it changed to snow. At 4:30 it was snowing really good, but there was only a coating, so I don’t know it it flipped back and forth or it was simply too warm to accumulate. I didn’t stay up all night to find out.

    And yes, we did watch a movie last night.
    Killers of the Flower Moon. Excellent, but disturbing film
    with Leonardo DeCaprio and Robert De Niro

      1. 2” of very wet snow down this way overnight. Not sure if it ever rained but temp has wavered between 32 and 33. Snow picking up again with bigger flakes.

    1. Well, the NWS map is interesting.

      Let’s see IF that verifies!

      Getting really windy here, but wind has NOT shifted enough
      for the temp drop just yet, but still snowing.

  209. After a brief period of drizzle we are down to 31.3F and back to light snow.

    Just came in from clearing the driveway and that was a HEAVY 6” to remove. The snow wasn’t light to begin with and the layer of drizzle on top didn’t help.

    Deck is all cleared and ready to measure the total from round 2 later when we get back from the Patriots game, which should be interesting…

  210. Boston has been down graded to Winter Weather Advisory.
    There’s a surprise!

    NWS, any egg on your face???????? You BLEW IT!!!

    2. Definitely!! I knew there 5-12 inch range was way high – surprised they didn’t stick with 4-6

    1. Yes, they did an EXCELLENT job, However, If the HRRR
      and RRFS-A are correct, their numbers may end up low
      DUE to a more potent phase 2. They certainly NAILED
      phase 1.

      Pete B. on ch 10 was unwavering on the marine layer!
      I am truly impressed! In my mind he has been elevated to #1
      and KING of the New England Mets!

      1. I never liked Pete when he was on WHDH 7 (sorry Vicki), because he would always hype and be over the top in terms of snowfall amounts. Since moving to 10 he’s been excellent. Now that I know better, I can chalk it up to management controlling the agenda on 7 which always had that tabloid feel.

  213. As David Byrne of the Talking Heads said, “I’m still waiting” and “same as it ever was.” That’s the story in Back Bay. All rain, all the time. 34.2F, wow a 0.4F drop in 2 hours!

    I don’t question whether it will eventually snow. But backside snows are usually ephemeral things that don’t accumulate much snow. After all it would have to snow for a while and cool down a lot for the snow to even start accumulating after all the rain. By that time, the system will be mostly moving away. I think I’ll squeeze out a measly inch or so here. In some reverse psychology (I’m hoping) I’ve put my shovel away until next winter …

    1. See HRRR and RRFS-A snow totals. Joshua in spit of a total bust on phase 1, the phase 2 is a different animal when it comes
      to back side snows. You “may” be pleasantly surprised. 🙂

  214. Just measured 6 inches of snow. The big total so far in CT Norfolk up in the northwest hills with a foot of snow so far.

  215. I’m beginning to think I am not going to see a lull between phase 1 & 2. Perhaps some change in intensity but I have been getting light to moderate snow here for a couple of hours and I don’t see it changing until the storm leaves the area.

  216. I am at the top of the list for bust at the coast up to miles inland for phase 1

    Turning to the developing backside/commahead ….

    Something like 0.5 is possible, but so is a higher amount.

    I’m already surprised by how the radar is filled in again, I thought it would still be back west and southwest of us.

  217. Tom, it ain’t 32F in Boston, at least not where I am. It’s a bit above 34F. And it’s not snowing either. Mixing, yes. But it’s been doing that periodically for a while. Again, it will eventually be all snow and the temps will come down but I’m really doubtful we’ll get more than an inch or so. Okay, we’ll get 1.4 inch which will stick around for a fleeting moment until Tuesday. After that, I expect some rinse and repeat nothing storms, at least at the coast.

    Haven’t we seen enough heavy rain during the past 7 months? Good lord. And on Tuesday we’ll see more. And next weekend more. And so on and so forth.

    1. Well phase 1 was clearly a BUST in Boston. NO questioning that.

      Now let’s see what’s in store for us the rest of the day. 🙂

  220. BDL reporting over 8” in addition to that 12” report in Norfolk CT. JJ, I would have thought you would end up with more than me…that band in western CT was impressive last night.

    The light snow here has already covered what I cleared on the driveway and deck. If HRRR is correct, another 2-4” today would give us 8-10” total which is right where I expected we would be.

    1. That’s a great total, Mark.

      I’ve heard from others who are inland that there’s been a fair amount of snow from #1 and more to come from #2.

      Agree with Hadi that overall we can’t call this a bust. I certainly don’t. I just think that at or near the coast #1 didn’t deliver anything, and in order for #2 to deliver it’s going to have to overcome a lot of rain. It usually takes a while for this to happen. So, here at the coast, for round #2, while the snow which will come out of the sky would have totaled a certain amount under normal circumstances it doesn’t account for surfaces being saturated with water.

  221. Joshua, I think you need to move inland a few miles!

    And pattern looks much better moving forward after this mid week storm, perhaps even starting with the storm next weekend though the jury is still out on that one.

  222. I’ll be updating soon. No big surprises with results (maybe a couple of heavier amounts in some banding down in CT, west of my forecast area), and no big changes in what is expected from here. The coastal areas from Boston south get their accumulation TODAY. I hope nobody expected to wake up to it already on the ground before it falls. 😉

    1. Well yeah! When I went to bed at 1:30 AM and it was snowing really good, I expected to wake up to a few inches at least.

      But, NO! ONLY A COATING!

      Damn marine layer!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  223. Mark I just missed that band. It was so close. Reading the special weather statement that came out it was saying snowfall rates of 2-4 inches. BDL up to 8.2 inches of snow. First 6 inch or more snowfall since December 11th-12th of 2022 at BDL. It was a heavy wet snow to shovel. Watching that snow area out in the Hudson River Valley and see how much more snow that could give us.

  224. I see some subtle signs that the wind “may” be beginning to back some. Temp still 35 but has dropped a few 10ths. Is it the beginning OR just a tease? I’ll know soon enough. 🙂

  226. If we’re going to evaluate a forecast, we should evaluate the whole forecast and I don’t mean because the storm is not done.

    Big picture: The meteorological reasoning part of NWS or every prediction I’ve seen or tried myself has been spot on. How the storm itself has been expected to behave meteorologically, it has. It didn’t go west, part 1 was WAA precip and the heavier precip did materialize.

    YES, the sensible weather matters the most. In winter storms, one huge aspect is the rain/snow line. It needs to be right.

    So, IN MY OPINION, no one has busted.

    Those who got the R/S line right: Excellent overall

    Those who didn’t: good, but NOT a bust

    It would be like if I graded my students right/wrong on final answers but didn’t assess their learning throughout the process to their final answer. And in my grading, the steps count more than the final answer does.

  227. Mark, I also hope for a pattern shift. But I’m wary of getting my hopes up. I try to just look at it one week at a time. And after a very brief wintry start to the week in terms of temperature it reverts to its usual for an extended period.

    1. That’s because the pattern transition is pretty slow, but marked by the active weather. Nothing has changed since my winter outlook, except one thing, and that’s the possibility of losing El Nino sooner than expected, which would put the end of winter in a place to be even colder. 🙂

  228. I guess it’s safe to say that Boston won’t challenge Worcester this winter. Oh well, at least the BOS-NYC “rivalry” is still intact. 😉

  229. Tom, I agree with your post.

    I haven’t even used the word bust. I think TK and PB have done a great job.

    My concern, however, moving forward is that the marine layer issue could feature this winter as a coastal denier of much snow. The ocean is really quite warm for the time of year. And it needs sustained periods (not just a few days here and there followed by extended periods of mild) to really cool down. I don’t see that happening, which means that we could very well have this scenario repeat itself. Fine for inland locations. Not so much for coastal.

    1. Oh, that is on the table for sure !

      And I wrote that for everyone and no one in particular, if that makes sense.

      You know, I have some students that sometimes work so hard at math, they do every step and so many of their final answers aren’t right.

      I just can’t look at them as having “busted” their quiz.

      So I think that’s why I’m passionate for the word bust.

      I’ve had students get 80s with most of their final answers wrong. Their steps were correct or mostly correct, but 1 thing prevented the final outcome from being right.

  232. Though the light is distinctly January-like, round 1 had/has a March feel and look to it. Right now, for example, with a mix of rain and snow and nothing accumulating it looks and feels like late March.

  234. Tom, you’re a great teacher of math. While I don’t teach math I have taught economics, which involves some math. Steps are VERY important. When students get these right, but the final answer wrong it shows that they’ve understood the material but haven’t quite gotten the final result right.

    1. Thanks !

      I’m frustrated it didn’t snow a little more in phase 1, within the Boston area and down towards me.

      I’m being defensive towards everyone on how I think to evaluate a forecast .

      That reaction of mine is not towards specific people, but in general.

      Go in twitter and it’s astounding how often BUST is used out there and I just am feeling defensive I guess 🙂 🙂 🙂

  235. We got smacked overnight in Amesbury. Close to 8 inches already. I’m guessing we will have well more than a foot when this ends. Not easy to shovel.

  237. Regardless of how much snow one has gotten or gets, this will have been yet another rather prolific producer of precipitation. Sure, it’s not a tremendous amount of qpf, but still quite a bit. And if you factor in that Tuesday/Wednesday we’ll see loads more precipitation, you’ll know that we’re in a sustained period – with one interlude from Oct 7 to around Nov 20 – of lots of (mostly) rain.

    During yesterday’s excursion I was alerted to the extraordinarily high water table levels at the refuge and also elsewhere in the state of Massachusetts.

  238. Temp is rising again where I am. It’s now 34.5F. It had briefly gone down to 33.6F. All rain, too. Mostly light.

    1. Now RAINING here, although lightly and probably the reason why. Temp still 35, but on the tenths it has crept up some,

  239. Newburyport was in the marine air, it got visited by the polar air (drop to mid 20s), now went back to 32.

    So the coastal front has stopped its southeastward advancement, for now.

  240. Almost done with the update – I’m using 3 blog windows haha!

    I do think Logan makes it into my 4-8 inch range (lower end) with the “part 2”, which was pretty much the expectation anyway.

  241. I measured between 8″ and 10″ here in Lunenburg. The NWS has 9.0″ as of 8:00 AM, so that sounds good.

  242. The radar looks a lot worse than what’s actually falling. The intensity I just isn’t there if this part 2 is going to drop several inches

    1. The part 2 intensity doesn’t exist yet because the energy for it is just crossing NY now. This part of the system is midday and afternoon and that is when Boston and the South Shore to South Coast get their accumulation as outline in my forecast from yesterday (and will be re-stated today in a few minutes). 🙂

      Re: Radar. Boston’s radar has seemed to enhance the bright banding on the display. Other radars in the region were all much less, so this is an issue with KBOX.

  244. I understand everyone’s view on getting the forecast right. Two thoughts from someone who does not have either a meteorological or mathematical background. Maybe that disqualifies me somewhat. First, the storm is not over …or I don’t think it is but moreoever I agree with looking at every aspect. Second, I liked the logic of Tom’s comment. I didn’t take it to mean that meteorology and mathematics are on an equal footing. And I may be wrong . But math is an exact science. Weather sure as heck isn’t.

    Oh and a third. Ya knew there would be more, didn’t you?

    Tom your last comment is exactly what made the difference for me in math. And it wasn’t till I was a senior in HS that’ as a teacher who understood that. As someone who struggled in math, it took a teacher who supported my attempts to get the right answer even when I didn’t for me to see that I was really good at math. Sometimes the right answer isn’t the only way.

    Clearly I have too much time in my hands ….back to weather.

    1. My only complaint was the insistence on the NWS and some mets (NOT TK, Pete or Eric) that the precipitation intensity would ocercome the marine layer and produce SNOW even at the coast. CLEARLY they were DEAD wrong and that is what I am PISSED at. I understand the storm is not over and that phase 2 is likely to deliver. That is not my issue.

      Those NWS mets “should” be smart enough to know what
      that marine layer would do! TK, PETE and ERIC were!!!!!
      Those 3 were basing their coastal numbers based on phase 2 and little or nothing from phase1. NWS and others had higher numbers because the EXPECTED the snow to win out over the marine layer.

      So that is my rant for this morning……

  246. I’m going to take a timeout and just watch out the window for a while and also acknowledge my wife and daughters, who are so good to let me go into my own world when a winter storm happens.

    If it’s a long timeout, I’ll be back much later on today to opine on the upcoming hurricane Tuesday overnight into Wednesday morning. 🙂 🙂 🙂

Comments are closed.