Monday January 8 2024 Forecast (7:32AM)

127 Comments

Post-storm look back. 3.1 inches at Logan, big build-up in snowfall to the north to as high as 18+ in parts of northern MA and southern NH. Lighter snow fell to the south, but they did get a burst at the end as the cold air arrived, and anything that was liquid late yesterday is frozen by now. Power outages from this one were not absent, but not nearly as widespread as an event not too long ago.

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 8-12)

A pleasant day today for storm cleanup and recovery, but it’s short lived. Another major storm system is heading this way, and will have a much different impact on our region than its predecessor. Low pressure tracks through the Great Lakes Tuesday night and early Wednesday, and this one will be rather powerful. For our area, it will be sending a ribbon of precipitation that will take place between about dusk Tuesday to dawn Wednesday. It can start as a burst of snow for areas from about Metro Boston north and west, with even a brief accumulation, and rain elsewhere, but for all areas the bulk of this one will be rain, and heavy rain at that. In combination with melting snow, flooding issues are quite likely. Also, a strong southeast to south wind during the heaviest of the rain can lead to areas of wind damage and resultant power outages, so be prepared for that. During the day on Wednesday, we’ll be in a southwest to west wind flow, still strong and gusty but not as powerful, but with dry weather and mild air. At least this particular system won’t have any freeze-up issues to present as it departs. It won’t be until late at night / early Thursday morning that we see temperatures back around the freezing point, and by then most of the wet surfaces should have dried out with the aid of wind and drier air. Exceptions, snow banks that did not melt completely can have water draining from them that will freeze in the early hours of Thursday, so be aware of this if you should have to walk or drive or park near one. Thursday’s weather will be breezy and a rain or snow shower may come through the region late in the day in response to a passing disturbance and cold front.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 31-38. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, gusts around 20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 12-19. Wind calm.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 36-43. Wind calm becoming SE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Rain arriving except a period of snow with brief accumulation possible from Boston north and west at the start. Heavy rain overnight. Lows 32-39 evening, then rising temperature overnight. Wind SE increasing to 25-35 MPH, gusts 45-55 MPH inland and 55-65 MPH coast, with spot gusts 70-75 MPH possible in a few coastal locations.

WEDNESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 50-57. Wind SW 15-35 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. A late-day rain or snow shower possible. Highs 40-47. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy with an early snow shower possible, then clearing. Lows 25-32. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 36-43. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 13-17)

Storm threat early in the holiday weekend. While the majority of guidance sends this low to our west and north, a track closer to or even south of us may occur, leaving many options on the table for precipitation type and overall impact this far in advance. Fine-tuning to come during the week. Generally fair weather for the balance of the holiday weekend. Active pattern may send the next storm system our way by the end of the period also. Temperature trend for the period is variable with active weather, but no major departures from normal expected – if anything slightly milder than average for the entire period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 18-21)

Storm signal early period. Drier weather after. Temperatures variable, but averaging near to a little above normal overall.

127 thoughts on “Monday January 8 2024 Forecast (7:32AM)”

  1. Thanks TK !

    I think with that fluff the last few hours, we even got to 2 inches.

    This caught my attention on the morning discussion from Taunton ….

    Still seeing efficient warm rain processes
    as warm cloud layer depths are roughly 8-10 kft, though do not have
    much experience looking at warm cloud layer depths in Jan at this
    latitude

    Yup, well ……… after the comma in the sentence, that says it all.

  2. The Euro has that 2nd system at 970mb, not quite the 963mb of the GFS, but they actually project the next one as more intense than the Tues night/Wed morning one, which is saying something.

  4. Thanks, TK!

    Tom, do you think that the Tuesday night/Wednesday is more or less intense than the December 18? Wednesday morning’s commute could be another adventure!!!

      1. I’m hoping the colder ocean and overall, everything in the entire system is cooler than mid Dec, I’m hoping that can help less mixing to the surface for where we live, Captain.

  5. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Looks like another 1/2 inch or so fell after I cleaned up yesterday.So looks like my total was around 3.25 inches give or take a bit. 🙂

    Big whopper of a snow storm. I’ll remember this one forever!
    BUT not for the snow, but for the MARINE LAYER killing the snow. Even when it finally switched to snow, it was ineffective as it was too warm to accumulate.

    TK you are usually conservative with the wind estimates.
    That fact that you said: gusts 45-55 MPH inland and 55-65 MPH coast, with spot gusts 70-75 MPH possible in a few coastal locations. Has my ATTENTION!!!

    1. JpDave, if we get a similar set-up in the future, and I’m being stubborn about coastal snow ………. yell at me, please !! 🙂 🙂 🙂

      1. No Worries. You presented a sound argument, but you under estimated the power of that marine layer. You know I was worried, even though for a time a relented and even I thought it would snow at the coast. I need to YELL at myself as well.

        That marine layer is a KILLER.

        I think one thing we neglected was the fact that the ocean water was WARMER than average making this as if the storm were early in December and NOT January.

        Had this been early in December, I don’t think you would
        have been calling for the SNOW.

        1. At my house the storm started right out as RAIN round 10 PM with the temperature having risen to 37 by then due
          to a freshening EAST wind!

          If took to 1:30 AM to flip to snow. I slept for 3 hours and at 4:30 AM it was snowing (I have no idea if it flipped back and forth) but with virtually NO accumulation over that 3 hours. I slept a few more hours and by 8AM it was still snowing with perhaps 1/2 inch accumulation.
          Between 8 AM and 11:30 AM or so, it flipped back and forth between snow and rain at least a few times that I saw and then from about 11:30 on it was snow.

          Basically the marine layer KILLED all but 1/2 inch of accumulation of the front end. 🙂

      2. I don’t know where you were stubborn. I read all of your comments..often twice…and don’t think I’ve ever seen stubborn.

  6. TK, thank you.

    I walked the shore this AM and I can report that the waves were ANGRY today. They were splashing over the walls.

  9. One thing I noticed this morning and that was that it was NOT as cold as I might have expected. I truly expected upper teens to lower 20s.

    My low for the night was 25 just after midnight. From there the temperature slowly crept upwards landing at 27 this morning at 7AM.

    28 now.

  10. Updated seasonal snowfall to date:

    ORH = 15.5”
    BOS = 4.0”
    NYC = 0.2”

    It seems that Logan received 3.8” yesterday.

    JPD, did you actually received a bit less?

    1. Looks that way, BUT I didn’t take hourly measurements.
      By the time I measured, there had been melting going on.
      Could be depending on how one measures, that I received
      4 inches. Didn’t use the wipe away method. 🙂

      When I went out to clean up around 4:15 PM, I just stuck a ruler into the snow in my front yard. 🙂

      Cheers

  13. Thanks Tk . A little more last night . I’m glad I cleared the driveway last night as it’s down to pavement & all the other driveways are ice . Quick comment on coach BB. I am now almost certain he will be back as he said this morning he will do anything Kraft wants him to do even stepping down from GM, he clearly wants to coach here & why would he not with that much money being paid & his family is there as well .

    1. Of course the worst of the wind is in the middle of the night when we are ALL at least trying to sleep!!!!!

  15. Thanks, TK.

    JP Dave, I’ve been talking about the lack of cold air all winter incessantly. It probably bugs people to hear it and I do apologize. But in Boston we have not hit the teens yet and won’t at all for the foreseeable future. That’s remarkable. Plus, you have the long stretches of days without it getting even to freezing at night in Boston, one such stretch is coming up from Tuesday to Sunday morning. I have a very minor quibble with TK on this one, as I am doubtful Boston will reach 32F (or if it does it will be quite brief early Thursday and possibly Friday morning) until early Sunday morning, starting on Tuesday. This has been a VERY consistent pattern for the past 6 weeks, as we’ve had plenty of lengthy periods of mild and really no sustained cold at all.

    What’s interesting is the youtube video I sent yesterday of the Scottish weather guy. He projects Quebec and Eastern Canada to remain relatively mild – as these regions have been all winter – for the foreseeable future, including February. That spells trouble for: 1. Any sustained cold around here, including nights in the teens, which will likely be hard to come by; 2. Arctic highs even if in the right position may not be be cold enough to support all-snow events at the coast in SNE (different story for the interior).

    The same person expects record cold outbreaks about 1,800 to 2,000 miles west of us, and continued record cold throughout Scandinavia.

    1. Sad commentary indeed.
      I have NOT yet hit the teens here in JP and it is January 8th!!
      My low for the season is 21 and that was hit once this month and once in December. 🙂

      Logan has not reached that low.

      I was disappointed in the lack of snow yesterday, but was well
      prepared for that eventuality, so I wasn’t angry like I might ordinarily have been. 🙂 🙂

    2. It doesn’t bug anyone you are just stating the facts as this is a weather page & I agree with you . This month seems to be flying by with MLK here already next Monday

    3. IDK, Joshua. It seems far too much of the climate warming discussion falls on deaf ears. That is a good part of the reason we are reaching the point of no return. As with nearly every other issue we face, we seem to have to go to the extreme to finally have the reality recognized. Your comments are based on facts which are very difficult to dispute. So please keep on keeping on

    1. Thank you. That guy is a complete IDIOT!
      The fact that people still support him is beyond my scope
      of comprehension!!! God help us if he gets elected!!!

      End of rant……

      1. He should be sued for this. A class action lawsuit. I mean it. And I’m not a litigious person at all. But of all the culpable things he did during his presidency his statements on public health (from Covid will magically disappear to suggesting people ingest bleach to just take hydroxychloroquine) were/are indictable offenses, in my view. No president should ever interfere and contradict (often Trump publicly harangued folks in charge) public health officials. The president is in no position to do so.

  17. Thank you, TK…..for today’s blog and for all others. Your detail this past week has been exceptional. It sure was a fun storm.

    Thank you also to everyone who shared links and interpretation of those links. What a great family we have …..and we added a couple of new names. Welcome!!!

  20. Wildcard weekend is coming up. It’s going to be VERY interesting. It’s hard to really know who is a true favorite in each game.

  21. I have both a bit of hope and a lot of concern for the wind on the next event.

    A little hopeful that the ocean is down to 44F and can kind of see the coast taking a while to get in the 50s temp wise. Some of the time with big wind above, the coast is still working through the 40s and that could help.

    The concern though, is that might still be overcome because I don’t like the positioning of a strong high (1,030 mb) to our east of Nova Scotia.

    With low near or sub 980 mb, that’s a 50 mb pressure. I don’t see how the wind won’t howl, at least at the coast, due to that. We could have a deep low to the west and if we didn’t have as decent a high to our east, the gradient wouldn’t be so much.

    Competing forces, I hope that relative ocean chill can help.

    1. I feel soccer is becoming more popular with our students here.

      More and more students wear soccer jerseys, both from the European teams and a few from the Revolution.

      And last year, if I recall correctly, the World Cup was a big hit.

      1. I never could get into soccer, but I understand the popularity.

        I actually have a new appreciation for the games after watching 3 seasons of Ted Lasso. 🙂

  23. Superintendents have an interesting choice Tuesday evening for Wednesday morning.

    I can certainly understand waiting it out, but then you run the risk of trying to communicate when most of the town might be without power Wed morning.

    And 2 weeks ago, I think Cohasset and Scituate and Norwell were 70-90% out by the end of the worst wind.

    And the worst could be 3-7 am Wednesday, right at bus pick up time.

    Good luck to them on this decision.

    1. You’re so right, Tom. I am good friends with our super. I have toying with the idea of emailing her with the prospects of a bad commute on Wednesday. I hope she’s aware.

    3. Tom so I really have not been following this . So I know I asked you recently if this could be a repeat Xmas storm where hundreds of trees came down with many , many outages . Is the real damaging winds more confined to the cape or south shore as well & this is Tuesday night timeframe for wind or Wednesday am

      1. Overnight Tuesday night, probably after midnight into the very, very early hours of Wednesday.

        Its helpful its moving quick.

        I’m hoping the ocean, which has cooled some since mid December, will indirectly prevent our temps from soaring thru the 50s. The cooler it stays, in theory, the wind has a chance to be manageable, hopefully. I’m both concerned and in some ways, a bit hopeful that maybe we get through this ok.

  26. Messi and Inter Miami are in Foxborough on April 27.
    Tickets on Ace Ticket start at $310. The most expensive I can find is $1600+!

  27. Measured average of 11.5 here in Billerica Midnight last night.
    Looks like Im going to be needing to deal with delays with my flight at 7am wednesday flight. I rather them message me tomorrow saying they canceled it so I don’t need to go to the airport.

    I was glad that I got to go to the game with it possibly Slater’s last game. It was fun with the snow, fun talking to people there. The thing I noticed, alot of people there this was also their first time going to the game as they too could finally afford a ticket.

    The other thing that I was finding most people I talked to at the game agreed with me that Bill needs to stay, that it would be a mistake having him leave. A handful of people also think that Bill already has relinguished alot of power and it actually has lead to issuess with personal behind the scenes. People want Daniels for the qb or Harrison if available and if not Nabers with first pick, people have some reservations of Drake Maye and no one I talked to wanted Caleb Williams for the same reasons. The other thing if they do not go qb with first pick. McCarthy due to his ability to play in bad weather. I for one would be upset if Bill is let go, I think it would be a major mistake that would lead to another 5 to 10 years of bad football. Now if we keep Bill, let Mayo and Bill O’Brian chose their qb and WR in the first and second round, and then trade/free agent WR and QB for bridge year, that could be serviceable, the Patriots I think would be in very good shape and could be back in the playoffs next year especially with the teams the Patriots have on the schedule.

  28. Joshua:
    I just got a notification on my phone that the German great, Franz Beckenbauer, passed this morning at 78.

  29. Scary to think the worst winds will be overnight to early AM Wednesday. Last time we at least had the daylight to see what’s going on. Prime example is the huge tree that fell on the house along the VFW parkway. The tree went right into the 2nd floor bedroom. If it was middle of the night that would have been a fatality

    1. i share your concern. I would MUCH rather this occur during the day! I liken it somewhat to the deadly nigh time tornadoes that sometimes hit the Deep South and the Plains.

  32. Sad news about Franz Beckenbauer. Thanks for alerting me to it, Captain F. “Der Kaiser” will be missed. He was a great player AND coach. An adversary, to be sure, of the Dutch squads I rooted for. But that doesn’t matter. I always respected and admired him.

  33. The High Wind watch includes the Boston area, North and South shore in addition to the Cape and Islands

    …HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
    WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON…

    * WHAT…Southeast winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph
    possible.

    * WHERE…Portions of eastern, northeastern and southeastern
    Massachusetts and northern and southern Rhode Island.

    * WHEN…From Tuesday evening through Wednesday afternoon.

    * IMPACTS…Damaging winds could blow down trees and power
    lines. Power outages are possible. Travel could be difficult,
    especially for high profile vehicles.

    1. Hi Dave, Forgot to tell you, that you received a special “accolade” in my post at 6:43 PM in yesterday’s blog.

  39. FIWIW,
    signals from the GFS and EURO indicate that
    the system following tomorrow night’s is likely
    to be almost or as windy as the one tomorrow night

  40. MJO is awake again, and it’s not your friend if you like snowstorms around here. But it can also be overcome by other things, so we’ll see.

    Next system though, other than a brief punch of snow N & W, is a rain event.

      1. We’re still (overall) trending in the right direction. But it’s slow to get to an actual “wintry” pattern. That’s coming through. Boston ends up with above normal snow this month.

  42. BDL came in with 10.4 inches of snow yesterday. 10.4 is the average snowfall for December. Now only a 4.8 inch snowfall deficit. That will grow some as the next two systems will be wet and not white.

  43. Curious how much water is in the snow from the other day. We had about 6-8 inches. Any guesstimate on peak wind gusts in Natick? Thanks.

  44. Potentially some areas included melted snow and two very wet storms upcoming could possibly receive up to six inches of rain. I’m sure all the utilities are aware of the problem with saturated ground and the possibility fifty plus mph winds.

    1. My title 1 tutor had his cell ring in class today and when he returned, he came over and told me, it was a call from eversource about expecting outages.

  45. Having a chance to watch some of the TV weather casts.

    The radar simulations are nuts.

    It’s not supposed to rain that hard over that large an area in the cooler/colder air of winter.

    A low topped thin line of convection, ok ……. but this ??????

      1. I’ll take every nice day we can get. Today was nice, for example. But overall, we have not been blessed with much winter or a wintry feel at all. Sorely disappointed. And this week is kind of Exhibit A of that. The forecast the next 5 days or so is God awful, if you ask me, especially for mid January.

      2. Sure caught my attention. I’ve heard a fair amount about atmospheric rivers from Mac’s brother in CA

  48. I hate rain and I especially detest prolific rains. Not just because of the weather type, but also due to the extraordinary damage it can do to many of us. In my case, it’s nearly an existential matter: Will my subterranean unit be intact?

    What’s truly remarkable is that for the past 7 or 8 months I only recall a few normal rain events: You know, the ones in which you get a quarter to maybe a half inch. Owing to HTE and other factors it seems that practically every storm overdelivers on water content.

    1. Exactly. I stay awake on all these overnight ones and will again tomorrow night. The winds will be strongest during the night too.

  49. Eric has said tonight on TV38, the gusts will not be as strong as the pre-Xmas storm but still very strong.

        2. I’ve seen Ch 38’s Ch 4 news several times.

          You can get news mid evening there and on Ch 7 as well. 🙂

  51. Meanwhile, deep winter in Scandinavia and Scotland. Days upon days of very cold weather. My friend in Scotland has remarked that it has been extremely cold and rather tranquil for quite some time. Further south where there has been more of an air mass battle, there have been storms and flooding, but the pattern there is also going to turn more tranquil but quite cold while the north gets a brief reprieve before the cold re-loads.

    Sweden has seen its coldest weather in a quarter century. Records have been falling in Norway and Finland. More record cold is likely in mainland Europe in the next 2 weeks.

    Oslo Norway broke their all time cold record. For the first time in recorded history the temperature has fallen below -30C. Brr. 15 other cold records were broken in Norway as well.

  52. 00z NAM has eased off the rain for the next system. It also looks like it’s backed off a tad on the duration of stronger wind and the magnitude.

    If this is correct, it’s good news.

  53. TK – You mentioned above that you believe Logan will get above normal snowfall this month.

    A. Well above normal?
    B. Just a bit above normal?

    I believe the average for January at Logan is around 13 inches. February a bit less (~11”)?

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