Tuesday January 9 2024 Forecast (7:53AM)

224 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 9-13)

After a briefly colorful sunrise for eastern areas today, clouds advance and grey the sky in advance of our next storm system, which will have quite a different personality than its predecessor. Low pressure which sat in the southern Plains early this morning will race northeastward through the Great Lakes and down the St. Lawrence Valley in the next 24 hours. This system’s impact here will be significant, occurring mostly between dusk today and dawn tomorrow, so let’s break down the aspects of it…

Snow: The only minor part really, and it can start as snow this evening anywhere from the Boston area north and west, with 1 to 3 inches in the higher elevations of central MA to southwestern NH and no appreciable accumulation elsewhere. This will be short-lived, with rain quickly taking its place.

Rain: Heaviest rain comes in the 6 hours between midnight and dawn, and there may be embedded thunder. General rain amounts of 1 to 3 inches.

Flooding: The potential for this is actually highest over interior areas where the rain potential is highest (2-3 inches) and the snow pack is deepest, with lots of melting of that to combine with the heavy rainfall. Poor drainage flooding will be nearly immediate, small stream flooding follows quickly after, and river flooding follows soon after and may last up to several days. Coastal flooding will be much less of an issue with just some high tide splash over in prone areas.

Wind: The greatest potential for damaging wind gusts resides along the coast, both the South Coast and the East Coast, and the wind potential drops off quite a bit inland. Ironically, the same snow pack that can enhance flooding over inland locations can act to limit the strong wind due to an inversion that forms because of the “refrigeration” near the surface, creating a barrier in which the strong wind just above struggles to mix down to the surface through the colder layer there. So wind gusts should be much less the further inland you go.

Power outages: Highest potential will be where winds are strongest – east of I-95, but cannot rule out isolated outages in locations to the west as well.

Post storm… During the day on Wednesday, we’ll be in a southwest to west wind flow, a little less strong than during the storm, but still notably gusty. Much of the ground should dry out during the afternoon but any remaining water can freeze Wednesday night / early Thursday as the temperature drops, so keep note of that if you need to be out walking or driving and can come across any of these slippery surfaces. As for Thursday’s weather, a disturbance and cold front passing by during the afternoon or evening can trigger a rain or snow shower. Friday starts with sun which is followed by clouds as the next storm system approaches. This one brings a round of precipitation Friday night into Saturday. The majority of this storm looks like more of a rain event for the bulk of the region, but as I believe guidance may not be completely correct in resolving this storm’s track just yet, we have to keep in mind there is the chance that the system is further south, we are colder, and there is at least some frozen precipitation involved for some areas for part of the event, so the forecast wording will reflect this by being intentionally vague. Fine-tuning will follow in future posts.

TODAY: Clouds thicken. Highs 36-43. Wind calm becoming SE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Overcast. Rain arriving evening except a period of snow possible Boston area and probable northwest of Boston where 1-3 inches can fall in higher elevations of central MA to southwestern NH. Moderate to heavy rain and a chance of thunder overnight. Lows 32-39 evening, then rising temperature overnight. Wind SE increasing to 25-35 MPH, gusts 45-55 MPH inland and 55-65 MPH coast, with peak gusts 65-70 MPH possible in a few coastal locations.

WEDNESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 50-57. Wind SW 15-35 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. A late-day rain or snow shower possible. Highs 40-47. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy with an early snow shower possible, then clearing. Lows 25-32. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Highs 36-43. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: Cloudy. Rain/mix/snow likely. Lows 30-37. Highs 37-44. Wind variable 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 14-18)

Watching storm threats January 15-16 and January 17-18 but guidance may be “confused” as to which disturbance to key on, so will work this out soon. Temperatures variable but near to slightly above normal for the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 19-22)

Colder trend with a potential messy storm before the period is over.

224 thoughts on “Tuesday January 9 2024 Forecast (7:53AM)”

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.

    So far, it looks like boston may fare ok with the wind. only an advisory here. I am not worried about 55 mph gusts. now in the warnibg area that have 65 mph husts. that would have me concerned.

    Btw ocean temp now 43. still warmer than it should be.

  3. However much I like cold, I’m very aware – after having done research and published an article on the topic – that extreme cold kills far more people than extreme heat. Please note that here I’m not talking about climate change or the fact that a warming planet can lead to negative outcomes in terms of the ecosystem, which includes humans, too. Rather, I’m referring to the acute impact of extreme cold versus extreme heat. Right now, you can be sure that many people are dying from the extreme cold gripping most of Russia, Ukraine, Belorussia and the Baltic States. What you’ll notice from the temperature map are two things: 1. The obvious, it’s very cold across most of Russia, Eastern Europe and Scandinavia; 2. But the cold is weirdly distributed. For example, while parts of Norway, especially along the Northern (!) coast, are actually above normal and quite mild, the rest of the country is in a deep freeze and has been for quite a while. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GDUsdpiWIAIGpBU?format=png&name=900×900

    The Scottish weather guy I mentioned before said that something similar will show up here in the Lower 48 and across Canada. While New England, Quebec and most of Eastern Canada will remain above normal most of the time going forward, including February (according to him) persistent record cold will grip other parts of the Lower 48. That cold will barely impact us, he says. That is a bit odd, but also very interesting.

    1. I just mentioned to somebody I was talking to yesterday that extreme cold kills more people than extreme heat and they didn’t believe me.

      It’s actually a long known fact.

  5. I am sorry. That was insensitive of me. My frustration at lack of snow here, Sunday’s flurry not withstanding.

  7. I have seen out in twitter verse a couple times that the Friday system won’t be as ‘strong’ for us and I see that. Less rain and possibly similar or slightly less wind.

    But, in actuality, the storm is likely to be stronger than this one with a lower pressure, potentially many mb lower, as of current projections.

  10. Damage photos starting to come in from the Panama City, FL vicinity.

    Impressive radar earlier and tornado is likely to have hit down there.

  11. Thanks TK. Do you see much drop in the wind in Natick? Also can deal with 2 inches of rain but how much water is trapped in the snow?

    1. You’re probably in a least overall impact area.

      Not the biggest snow pack to melt , not the heaviest rain, and not the strongest wind.

  13. This is just an observation with no negative intent …… as I’m sure this is true across the weather universe.

    Today’s blog is 90 mins old, it has 15 posts.

    A storm is coming (in the next 18 hrs) that has a chance to put some coastal areas in the dark for a while and cause some serious flooding (both short and medium term on the big rivers).

    The other day during a moderate snow storm, 90 minutes in, there were probably 115 posts. 🙂 🙂 🙂

    I find that funny. I get it though.

    2. Interesting observation indeed. Here’s to hoping the winds are kind to us down here on the South Shore. My senior has no problem having snow days but my sophomore, not so much. 🙂

  14. Thanks, TK…

    The City picks up the Christmas trees tomorrow morning in our neighborhood. I am putting a return address on ours. If it ends up in your yard, please get it back to us.

    I did email our superintendent about the impending weather overnight and into tomorrow morning. She was grateful for the intel and is monitoring the situation.

    1. Low of 21 in JP. 3rd time this season it has been this low, but
      has NOT been lower as of yet. 🙂

      1. 24F here. Perhaps my thermometer is off again, though then again maybe not as there’s often a difference between Back Bay and JP temperatures.

  20. Low of 16 at my home in SE Sutton. I was concerned my thermometer might be stuck in the snow so verified with the NWS site. The closest station to here which is about a mile as the crow flies has 14.

  21. Just as a reminder, I got pushback for publishing this piece on extreme cold versus extreme heat: https://www.forbes.com/sites/joshuacohen/2023/07/19/excessive-summer-heat-can-kill-but-extreme-cold-causes-more-fatalities/?sh=7b9c5f151d88

    I got emails from people saying I’m a “climate change denier.”

    Nothing could be further from the truth.

    It shows you how polarized this moment is, but also how little facts matter to people. This applies to both actual climate change deniers, who inexplicably deny that there’s a warming trend worldwide, and some on the other side of the spectrum who don’t want to hear anything that might disrupt their narrative.

    I’m concerned about climate change, as I’ve said many times. I think, though I can’t prove, that humans are contributing to it. Yet, I’m also someone who is wedded to following the data and evidence. So, there can be a warming trend globally WHILE there’s record cold in parts of the world. See my earlier post. The two are not mutually exclusive.

    And to the climate change deniers who say after a snowstorm hits the Eastern Seaboard, “see, there’s no global warming” (I saw Sean Hannity say this once and nearly choked on a potato chip) I say hogwash. That’s not how it works, for many reasons: 1. There’s little correlation between snow amounts and temperature (the vast majority of snowstorms don’t occur in especially cold conditions); 2. One-off events or even a series of events (like one winter season) do NOT make a trend!

    3. “I can’t prove, that humans are contributing to it” sorry but this is human caused directly and indirectly, it is a fact and anyone that thinks otherwise is not looking at the full picture from an ecosystem perspective. Humans try and make things linear or within a box separating things out when they are circular and interconnected. There is proof its human caused all over the place people just don’t like the thought that humans are responsible for the damage that is occuring to the planet. Eventually the planet is going to fix the problem and we are not going to like it.

      1. I like Joshua’s comment. A lot of it follows what Harvey said. But having tested land. air and water for decades, Mac had no doubt we have polluted all three. And that pollution is far from minor.

  22. Thanks TK. Thoughts on Raina dm wind in North Attleboro. Concerned with basement flooding and power outages for sump pump.

    1. I think you have to be prepared for both flooding and enough wind for tree damage, but I think the magnitude will be less than the December “Stormy Monday” event

  24. Sightly more encouraging 12z runs.
    Not to dismiss the potential, but I’m pretty sure we’re looking at a system that falls shy of that one referenced previously.

    2. Yes, indeed. I “thought” I noticed a slight trend in that direction as early as late yesterday. The 12Z runs confirmed it for me.

      Not saying some places won’t experience issues, but I think
      Boston “may” be spared the worst.

  27. Now SNOWING in the Western 1/3 of Connecticut.

    Will it snow briefly in Boston?
    Currently 35 in JP.

    Border line I’d say. Kind of a moot point as it will QUICKLY
    switch over to rain.

    Would be nice for Logan to pick up a quick 1/2 inch to 1 inch
    to add to the season total, but I highly DOUBT that is
    in the cards. Will be watching just the same. 🙂

    Flash lights all set to go. Phones and Lap top Charged.

      1. Could see in the last 12-24 hrs, at the start, the R/S creeping a little further south with each run at the start.

  28. Here it comes….

    NWS Buffalo
    @NWSBUFFALO
    40m

    Wow! 74 mph gust reported at Dunkirk at 1125 am! Chautauqua County reporting extensive damage along Lake Erie shoreline between Westfield and Hanover. Destructive winds will make driving extremely difficult!

  30. Thanks, TK.

    I have to leave for a medical procedure at around 6:45 a.m. tomorrow morning, leaving Sudbury and going to Framingham. Will there be much if any flooding around that time?

    1. Yes ! I’ve seen a radar shot from someone who posted it, when this cell went over Panama City and the cell had an impressive signature/hook to it.

  34. Just had a school in my area along the south coast go to a late start mode tomorrow am and start at 9 instead of 7:30…let the worst of it pass (rain and wind) and have students drive to school in some daylight

      1. I am not sure if you can start school if the power is out at a school(s). I know from the December 18 storm that you have to dismiss early if power is out at a school for more than two hours.

  36. Varabel fired from titans , oh boy this is about to get interesting. Anyone who is following this Kraft said pioli & Varabel would be his dream team come true .

  38. Up to 36 here. I am thinking it will be RAIN here right from the outset as it will likely be 37 or 38 when it gets here. We shall see.
    If by some chance it starts as snow, it won’t last long at all. 🙂

    2. I agree old salty it will definitely be all rain as the temperature will keep climbing overnight & into the 50s around 3am & beyond

              1. If January does not produce anymore meaningful snow & your forecasting a dry February this could change things up Tk ?? I think you thought dry February.

                1. January will be likely producing quite a bit of meaningful snow. It’s only the 9th. The pattern is becoming more favorable with time (not steadily). As noted, it’s a gradual pattern transition.

                  And yes I thought February will be a dry month, but that doesn’t mean 0.00 precip and 0.0 snow. It means drier than average, with probably anything that falls coming as snow if the pattern is as cold as I think it’s going to be.

                  This is why I forecast Boston’s snowfall near to above normal this season. No need to change it.

              2. I didn’t say anything meaningful. It’s in the discussion. 1-3 inches of snow in the higher elevations of central MA and southwestern NH. Under 1 inch possible a little inside that. No accumulation in the city. That doesn’t change the fact that I expect it to start as snow there.

  41. SSK regarding the dry February, this may be an extreme example, but in February 1978, Boston was drier than average by 1/2 inch of precipitation, but had twice the snowfall of their monthly normal.

    Anybody else know something very rare that happened in Boston in February 1978?

    2. No, Nothing that I can recall….Hmmm wasn’t there something
      going on around the 6th-7th. Something rather BIG?

      Like the BLIZZARD OF 78!!!!!!!

      Nah, can’t remember anything.

      1. Boston never recorded one drop of rain the entire month.

        8.1 inches of snow on February 6.
        19.0 inches of snow on February 7.
        Trace snow on February 8.
        0.1 inch snow February 18.
        Trace snow February 19.
        Trace snow February 23.

        NO rain, at all.

        1. I remember no much happening in the month after that storm. 🙂
          Any approaching storms were all shunted to the South.

          1. Blocking. Everything went south. In March we had some additional snow. 16.1 inches that month including a 9.2 inch snowstorm at Logan March 3-4.

  42. Not for nothing, but there is still quite a bit of snow on the trees here in NE mass…I hope that doesn’t enhance wind damage potential.

  43. Up to 37 here. I am thinking it starts right off as rain. The dp is 32 which isn’t so great. I suppose there is still a chance to see some flakes, but not looking good if you ask me.

    37 at Logan with ESE wind at 14.

  53. I feel like in past setups like this, the south shore has more times than not, seen the lower end of the expected winds.

    But the outer cape and maybe more noticeably, cape Ann as well as coastal nh and Maine overachieve on winds.

    I wonder if that might happen again ?

    2. I hope so, Mark.

      But it’s too early to tell, especially lately when longer term guidance, say, >5 days down the road, has tended to be inaccurate.

      1. Maybe inaccurate with the details of specific storm threats but they are in pretty good agreement on the overall pattern. That being a trend to colder the second half of the month and the end of this brief train of cutters.

  61. I just got a message from somebody on the north side of Boston reporting rain and big wet snowflakes mixed in. I have the same thing here in Woburn.

    1. I heard a few pings too after I sent that.
      Looks like mostly rain now.

      Snowing pretty good in Nashua and Fitchburg per friend reports.

      1. Most of the US gets cold next week, and this is the start of a trend.

        The cold has not really been absent in the hemisphere so far, it’s just been elsewhere. NW Europe is having a nasty episode of winter that’s going on for quite a while. It’s their second such bout this winter. Siberia has not been left out. And yes it’s normally cold there, but I mean anomalously cold. Every time the PV would bust up, the other indices wouldn’t line up to bring any of that air our way. Now, it’s a slow process, but it’s coming.

        1. If you keep repeating yourself a few more times, maybe people on here will start to believe you….

          Then again, I am not Santa Claus 🙂

            1. Just joking about the continued skepticism on here that the pattern is changing to more sustained winter weather after this week despite TK talking about it repeatedly. 🙂

              1. Ahhhh sorry. I get it. We have been playing what blew some lights and our Wi-Fi in this house so I’m easily confused

                FWIW. I believe winter is on the way

  68. Drove from Maynard home to Sharon in very heavy snow on 495 with the road starting to ice up. Changed to heavy rain once I hit Hopkinton.

  70. This next wave of rain is coming down pretty good and it doesn’t look like the stuff down around DC.

    That should be interesting passing through.

      1. It’s 42/43F.

        That’s a good sign.

        Cooler, in theory, the better.

        I really don’t know if we overachieve or underachieve on wind, but I’m cautiously optimistic.

  74. Mike Masco
    @MikeMasco
    2h

    SIGNIFICANT EAST COAST SNOWSTORM CHANCES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.. SNOW TO THE I-95 CITIES EARLY NEXT WEEK?
    We are inside a “parade of storms” I advertised last month as the pattern shifted towards a very active southern jetstream and transition to a colder pattern. tonight’s storm would be the 2nd in this series of storms with another on its way for Fri/Sat. This 3rd storm is expected to be another soaking rain event (sorry snow lovers in the east) and heavy snowstorm over Midwest/Ohio Valley

    Now, Let’s fast forward to early next week where we find the 4th storm in this series of storms. This 4th event has peaked my interest. This 4th storm will come a shore during a time when the NAO/AO have all switch negative and the PNA goes positive .. These are KEY atmospheric teleconnections you want to see when getting the storm track to shift east and crease coast snowstorms.

    The magic question is if this storm can phase with 3 branches of the jet stream to create a major east coast snowstorm otherwise known as a “Miller A” storm. This type of storm/track brings massive snows from the Southeast to Northeast.

    Still plenty of time..but the European model (below) which has done very well as of late is seeing the early signs of something brewin’

    https://x.com/MikeMasco/status/1744866628511105182?s=20

    1. I prefer Miller B. Those are better snow producers for us in SNE. Miller A’s usually have p-type issues but produce better in NNE, especially in El Niño years

        1. I have to send this to my niece. My younger brother (her dad) drank miller hi life.

          Thanks to you both. My older brothers service was today and I needed a smile

  75. 0.47″ and 42 degrees at beddy-bye time.
    Starting to hear some gusts rattle the windows at times.

    ‘Night, y’all!

    1. Wow. Been over both bay bridges more times than I can count.

      Wonder if they took a page from charlestons book

  79. TK, you did call it VERY well in terms of the snow potential at the beginning of this storm in places to our north. As Mark just posted it’s snowing in parts of NH, but also Maine and even Northern Massachusetts where the cold hasn’t quite been dislodged. It will happen, to be sure, but some spots in Central and Northern New England might have a hefty dose of snow before the changeover. And of course in the `Siberia’ of New England, Maine’s Aroostook County, this will be a mostly snow event and a lot of it. Same story on Saturday, where it will be all snow in towns like Van Buren, Maine.

        1. Nice to see it white again. We are going to be up that way in Sunday River the weekend of the 20th and then Jackson the following weekend. I am much more optimistic now that there will actually be some good snow up there by then. As of last week, there was only a 1km loop of cross country ski trail open in Jackson Village on manmade snow. Things are looking up now.

          1. I have a picture on my wall of the Jackson covered bridge. Enjoy. Did you see my post a day or so ago that a group got together and kept a black mtn open

  82. I assume bay bridge that is closed is the one from Annapolis to Kent narrows? On 301? Anyone want to explain why they call the other one the bay bridge and tunnel?

    1. That’s what it looked like….US 50/301 from Annapolis to the Delmarva Peninsula.

      I think the other one you are referring to is the Chesapeake Bay Bridges and Tunnels in VA between the southern tip of the Delmarva to Virgina Beach? Been over those a few times driving to the OBX. They are impressive.

      1. The second is the bay bridge and tunnel, always confused me. A lot of folks down thar way call both the bay bridge. And yes, I did some checking the onc closed is the annapolis to where we stayed in Kent narrows.

    1. There are several similarities to that pattern in this one.

      That pattern was more dynamic overall.

    1. My screens are coated with rain. I can’t see a thing. I can mostly just hear the rain. We have almost an inch

    1. I refer to those as “shoestring” lines. But yes that’s a squall line. Sometimes those can have intense rain and some of the strongest wind. They’re common in dynamic systems such as this one.

  91. So far, wind gusts are fitting right into the expected ranges both coast & inland.

    As of 1:00 a.m. we’re in the final 4 hours of the strongest wind and heaviest rain. The squall line represents the beginning of the end of the worst of this system. Things will begin to settle down once it passes any given location.

  92. Beware when the line comes through. It rained unbelievably for about 20 mins but not much wind while the rain was happening.

  93. Big time squall here right now … last gasp for this storm. I figure it’s outta here at 5:30-6:00 AM

  94. I’ve NEVER seen it rain this hard in winter (and only rarely during other seasons, frankly). And I’ve observed these kinds of things for a very long time. There’s water in the boiler room and the wells outside my window are dangerously close to overflowing. If not now, then surely on Saturday.

  95. No surprise at all that on January 10th Boston has already exceeded its monthly average rain/precipitation fall. That has kind of been a theme since June.

      1. I can believe it. It was like someone – well, in this case God – had an enormous water hose on full blast, especially around 3am. Even during severe summer storms it’s rarely if ever like this. I’ve been up since 2am, quite worried about flooding. Because the rain is now subsiding I’m less concerned. But I’ve asked the building manager to send a crew over to vacuum out the water from the wells at some point between now and Friday. Otherwise there will be bad damage as once the water comes into the apartment through the windows one’s in trouble.

        1. Hope things are ok Joshua and North.

          If you can get through 1 more big precip event and it might be under 2”, maybe the pattern can calm down or delivery more reasonable amounts of melted precip after the Fri/Sat one.

          1. I hope so. I was up all night checking things. Snow is gone too!

            Joshua, hope all is still well this morning,

  96. Looking like the rain totals are at, maybe even slightly exceeding ? general model output. About 2.25-3 inches in eastern half of state. (I didn’t check cape cod)

    I think the relatively cool air in the 40s and 50s helped keep the wind reasonable, which is good.

    1. During that line, the wind was not even gusty. It was right before the downpour by about 5 mins ahead but the line wasn’t moving too quick.

  97. Rain has stopped for most part. Maybe a little bit of a sprinkle. Quite a storm. Our top gust here was reported at 58 MPH.

    Might try to walk the shore.

  99. North:

    Thinking about you and your basement this morning!
    I hope that flooding and damage are minimal.
    I know that your cellar has taken a beating in the last year.

    I see that North Attleboro schools have a delay this morning.

    1. Thanks, So far not too bad, I had some water coming in but not anything I couldn’t handle where the house would be hit by the southeast wind, where the foundation and the house meet. My sump pump has been going but I had water building up outside against the door that goes out. Luckily the door bottom is up the concrete by a foot or so but was very concerned that would come in but it didn’t. So far nothing coming up through the floor. Luckily the basement is 3/4 unfinished,

  100. Yawn,
    Did I miss anythn g?
    NEVER once heard the wind.
    Was it windy anywhere?
    Seriously, never heard the wind.

  102. Impressive rain last night. Gauge measured 3.50” but it was likely more since I forgot to clean the snow off the top. Hoping for more snowy events going forward.

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