Wednesday January 10 2024 Forecast (7:43AM)

153 Comments

STORM REVIEW

We’re not quite done with our storm yet, as it impacts the region today too, but the early snow, most of the rain, and the strongest winds are history. The expectation was for 1 to 3 inches of snow at the outset in areas well northwest of Boston, and the reports I have seen indicate about 1 inch in North Chelmsford MA to 2.4 inches at Fitchburg MA. Rainfall expectations were also 1 to 3 inches, with most reports I have seen so far being between 1.50 and 3.00 inches. Street flooding was prominent during the event, and stream and river flooding will be an issue over the next 2 or 3 days as we see run off from rain and melted snow combined. Top wind gusts came in pretty much in the expected range, around or a little over 40 MPH well inland building up to 55-65 MPH in coastal areas, (65 MPH recorded at Chatham MA). Potential wind gusts of up to 70 MPH were expected and a gust of 70 MPH was reported atop Blue Hill in Milton MA at the famous observatory there.

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 10-14)

The low pressure area that gave us our wet and windy event will continue to impact the region today and tonight with gusty winds from the southwest and west, though not as strong as what we saw during the rainfall. Additional rain showers around this morning will exit from west to east, and from here on its dry with the exception of a possible additional rain shower across the hilly terrain of north central MA and southern NH late today or this evening. Additional cloudiness moves across western and northern portions of the WHW forecast area into tonight while a clearing trend takes place elsewhere. Thursday we lose the influence of the big low, but a smaller disturbance brings some additional clouds into the region, and with slightly colder air having filtered in, a quick shower of light snow may take place, again favoring northwestern parts of the region from north central MA to southern NH, late in the day. Otherwise it’ll be too dry for this to do much. As we remain in an active pattern, we have another significant storm to contend with. I’ve been wondering if this system would end up further southeast than its predecessor, but it appears that the upper air pattern will be similar enough that this one will take a similar track to the one we just had, with similar results too, maybe to a slightly lesser degree overall. That said, it still remains a high probability that we get hit with another significant storm later Friday into early Saturday. More detail to come on impacts. Behind this, the cold air delivery will be stronger, so as we head into the middle of the holiday weekend it will be dry (maybe a few snow flurries), and windy with temperatures near to a little below normal.

TODAY: Cloudy with additional rain showers ending from west to east early. Clouds break for sun at times thereafter. A late day rain shower possible north central MA and southwestern NH. Highs 50-57 early, except 40s some far northwestern areas, then falling into the 40s throughout the region. Wind SW-W 15-25 MPH, higher gusts at times.

TONIGHT: Lots of clouds at times central to northeastern MA and southern NH, with only a few clouds elsewhere. Lows 30-37. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. A late-day snow shower possible higher elevations of north central MA to southwestern NH. Highs 38-45. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 25-32. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Highs 38-45. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain develops, may start as snow north and west of Boston. Lows 33-40 early, rising overnight. Wind E-SE 5-15 MPH, increasing overnight.

SATURDAY: Cloudy morning with rain likely. Breaking clouds afternoon. Highs 46-53. Wind SE-SW 15-30 MPH with higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. A snow shower possible. Lows 20-27. Wind W 15-25 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. A snow shower possible. Highs 28-35. Wind W 15-25 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 15-19)

Storm threat window January 15-16. Fair weather trend follows. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 20-24)

One or two opportunities for passing storms to deliver precipitation as the pattern is still active, but also colder. This increases opportunities for snow.

153 thoughts on “Wednesday January 10 2024 Forecast (7:43AM)”

  3. Thanks, TK.

    No flooding yet, though there’s water in the boiler room.

    Water level is precariously high in my wells and not draining (due to water table level and residual leaves and debris). Another rainstorm like this will result in water damage inside. Hoping the vacuum folks come by today or tomorrow.

  5. Thanks TK! It was a loud and very wet night along the south coast and now it looks like instant spring – all the snow and snow piles gone.

          1. Indeed. Go with the Euro. 🙂
            The point is MORE RAIN!!!! and no SNOW for
            Eastern Sections. What else is now.

            The only consolation is that it is still 5 days out and subject to change. 🙂

            2. Indeed.

              I think we need to root for something weaker. That should translate to a non-phased jet and something that can slide underneath us.

              If its phased, under this overall pattern set up, its probably going over or west of us.

              1. Not what I want to hear. Trying to be patient, but
                growing weary.

                There is time for the 16th system, so I have not given up hope on that one just yet. 🙂

  10. As far as I have heard, there wasn’t a single power outage in Middleborough. I am thinking that previous windstorms in the last six weeks may have cleared all of the deadwood.

  13. If I was a gambling man I’d put money on mostly rain events from here on out this winter, and continued frequent deluges. Will it get colder? Yes. As TK has said there is a gradual transition underway, though with a hiccup this week. Will it then snow around here, however? Well, that’s another story. Remains to be seen. Not holding my breath. Consolation is that with the colder air in place Northern New England will fare well in terms of snow, I believe. Good for ski country. By the way, this was also the case in 2011-2012. Not a fantastic winter for snow, by any stretch of the imagination. But my daughter worked at the AMC Highland Center during that season and they got plenty of snow. She skied a lot, too. I visited her in a snowstorm. It was all rain in Boston but a nice snow event up there.

  14. I typed a comment around 5:30 but I must not have sent it. I slept through the worst. We have minimal water in basement so far but items blown all over the yard. We’ve only had water once before from whatever system was called that went thru before Henri. The blackstone is suspected to crest just above river bank flood stage

    North, I’m so sorry to hear you were up all night with basement water. Joshua, I hope water didn’t end up getting into your home

    1. Thanks, Vicki, for checking in.

      Life vest is on, ark is ready to go, animals, too. But thankfully no water damage yet in my home. They’re coming to vacuum out the water tomorrow.

    2. Thanks! Could have been worse. Mostly minor issues that could have become major quickly. Hope yours isn’t too bad.

  16. On train to Providence for a work meeting. Tracks are flooded so there’s a delay getting into the station. That’s a first for me. I’ve experienced many kinds of delays, but until now not due to flooded tracks. All tracks are flooded except one in the station, apparently.

  18. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=500wh&rh=2024011000&fh=0&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=500wh&rh=2024011012&fh=63&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    Top link: last night’s storm

    2nd link: upcoming Friday night’s

    I think one can see that, though it may be every bit as strong pressure wise, the 500 mb jet on the next one doesn’t dip as far south into the close and close to the Atlantic off the far southeast coast.

    It just shouldn’t be able to grab the same amount of moisture the last one did.

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=qpf_024h-imp&rh=2024011012&fh=72&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    And that is the idea, about 1/2 the amount of rain. But, for flooding, its fast, in probably 6-8 hrs, so, its going to pour again.

    1. Ace, they don’t have the traditional list out yet or they may and I also can’t find it.

      You can go to observations (just left of radar) and on the drop down list, click rainfall.

      Double click to zoom in and there is a decent colorful map with a key to the right.

      1. Thanks Tom, found it, very helpful! I thought my gauge was high at 3.50” but according to the map it’s right on the button.

        1. Glad you found it !

          In case others are looking for that, I made an error, its under CURRENT CONDITIONS to the left of RADAR. Click that, 2nd one down.

  20. We ended up with 3.01 at our house. I’ve seen a few a bit higher in other parts of town

    The little bit of water in our basement came up through an AC drain the nimrods who built this house had in the floor. Who knows why they had it there but it has to mean water level under the house is really high. At least it didn’t come in thru a foundation crack as it did before.

      1. Thank you and we are all happy too. We are really happy it didn’t come thru the foundation crack that the last time found and my sons in law repaired.

        My heart aches for north and my son and all who are battling real water damage.

        1. Mine was minor compared to what it could have been. This could have turned into a bad flooding situation at any time considering we kept getting all those heavy elements. Sounds like most here are ok.

  21. Sump pump working hard and keeping floor dry. Splotches of sun coming through so maybe things will begin to dry out this afternoon. This pattern is getting tedious.

  28. Snow game Steelers Bills Sunday???
    From Bernie Rayno

    Very close call for lake-effect snow Sunday for Steelers at Bills.Right now, low level flow looks to be around 250-260 which would keep the single band of L.E.S just south of Orchard park.That band of snow will have 2-3″/hour rates, whiteouts and extensive blowing

      1. Per tide guages, Portsmouth, NH had a 3 ft surge just prior to high tide

        Portland, ME had a 4 ft surge.

        I’m thinking they got double whammied, because the whole time the tide is in, somewhere up river, all the rain and snow melt is trying to get to see, so its like, they got flooded from both the ocean and the watershed trying to drain the excess rain/snowmelt.

  33. Water in my backyard and a decent amount in my basement but it appears my oil burner is ok.

    Thanks Mark for the link for those Miller C, D and E storms. I couldn’t find it via Wikipedia.

    This was definitely much more of a water than a wind event.

    2. Sorry about your basement issues Philip.

      I think they should stick to Miller A’s and B’s. The other types of storms are basically just modified versions of A and B.

  36. Thanks TK.

    3.25″ of rain in Coventry. It got wild last night for awhile but did not lose power and there was school this morning. A couple bridges in town were closed due to flooding and another road closed due to a mudslide but overall, we faired OK.

  38. 0z Euro had not one but TWO coastal storms next week.

    Euro has been very consistent (5 or 6 straight runs now) with the coastal system on Tuesday. Glad to see the other models coming around as well. Plenty of time to monitor track but I think chances are good for accumulating snow in much of SNE next week. These will be much colder systems, even if we are dealing with R/S lines.

      2. Not sure what 10 day outlook you are referring to. The models and TK agree with another storm threat around 10 days from now (~1/19-1-20)

  39. Ski areas faired very well with this storm! It nuked up there and any changeovers occurred after the bulk of the heavy precip moved out. It was a heavy wet snow which is good for base building, and these areas should do it all over again Fri Night/Saturday. Some totals…

    Sunday River, Maine: 15″ and trail count up to 65
    Killington, VT – 10″ and trail count up to 85
    Stratton (southern VT) – even they pulled out 6″ and added a few trails.

    Still snowing lightly up there:
    https://www.killington.com/the-mountain/webcams/mountain/snowshed-cam

  44. We’ve been getting instability downpours for the last 45 minutes.
    Sun’s out for five minutes, it clouds up and it pours. We’ve had three cycles of this. About to have a fourth! Sunny out now!

    TK: Is Hampton Beach the place you head to see fireworks?

    2. When I see Hampton mentioned, I think of TK. I also think of my brother who was a lifeguard there summers during high school.

      1. Life guards there are the best I’ve ever seen & this is coming from someone who grew up in marshfield steps from the beach

  47. Thanks for the links Mark. Euro at least looks interesting even if no block busters. A series of 5-10 inch events WILL get the job done. 🙂 🙂

    1. I thought I would give you an afternoon off 🙂

      Yes, I will take a series of 5-10 inchers and sustained cold any day…

  49. From a met on the American Wx forum regarding the 1/19-1/20 storm threat:

    The 20th is seriously legit. You have every single synoptic piece here:

    1. decaying WB -NAO
    2. Arctic antecedent airmass
    3. 50/50 ULL
    4. transient PNA spike from the diving GoAk LP
    5. amplifying vort upstream

    this period has been showing up on ensembles and now OP runs are beginning to sniff it out. large storms often follow decaying WB -NAOs, so this is definitely a period of high interest.

    https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2024_01/ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-5622400.png.927db3243634441bbde3fb1cc5b245fa.png

  51. I just took a ride through sutton. The water areas had begun to drop. They are topped off now to full capacity with streams along roads full and rushing. One was over the road but not deep enough to make passing difficult.

  52. Captain F…

    Yes I frequent Hampton Beach. Flooding is very common there. Several times a year it happens, even in fair weather when there is a full moon (especially super moons). If you combine a storm and just the right timing with a bit of storm surge, it’s worse than usual. This episode is pretty high up on the Hampton flood scale, from the pictures I’ve seen. I’ve seen worse there, but not too many times.

    There area around Brown Avenue on the back side of the beach sits right at salt marsh level. If the tide is even a couple to a few feet above what is typical, it invades the neighborhoods just like that.

      1. Hopefully next summer!

        I’m more of a clam strip person myself, but nothing beats haddock for me. Though I love shrimp & scallops too. 🙂

  53. Quick look at the pattern, though I really didn’t need to because everything looks the same to me…

    Boston ends up with above normal snow for January.

    February may start snowy too but probably trends dry.

    It hasn’t been mentioned much here yet but there are more signs that El Nino is going to meet a very early and complete death with La Nina probably returning very quickly after.

    This process lends some confidence to a cold end to winter, but up in the air is whether we stay dry into March or have another snowy pattern emerge to put an exclamation point on winter. I’m leaning toward the latter, but loosely.

    La Nina is now forecast to persist into summer 2024. That has interesting implications for the Atlantic tropical season. But we’ll get into that more down the road…

    I like snow chances for this area next week two times, and two more times after that the following week.

      1. Oh yes, MJO may finally work for the snow lovers come later this month. Indications are a stronger more prominent MJO influence while it reaches phase 7, 8, and 1 the last 8 days of January into the first week of February.

        This is the best I’ve felt about a snowy pattern in a few years.

          1. Boston’s not going to get 100 inches of snow if that’s what you’re wondering. 😉

            That pattern was very different anyway. It was an extremely stable pattern that occurred with a +NAO (most people don’t realize that). We just happened to have a persistent deep trough in the East that supplied the cold air AND the moisture, for 5 weeks.

    2. So Tk what does Boston have now & how many more inches for January to be above average. Also you mentioned La Niña being present this summer what kind of summer does that mean hot & dry

      1. January snow…
        Boston has 3.8. Average is 14.3. They need 10.5 to reach normal. They’ll get there, then pass it IMHMO.

        La Nina doesn’t tend to have a notable impact one way or another on North America during summer, but there has been an observed trend for the middle of the country to be hottest while both coasts are a bit more seasonable or even cooler. Also, as you know, La Nina summers tend to feature an active tropical season in the Atlantic. There is no strong indication of hot & dry for New England, but it can’t be ruled out of course.

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