Thursday January 11 2024 Forecast (7:38AM)

240 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 11-15)

Our active pattern continues. But there are also changes ahead. But let’s go one step at a time, starting with a couple more tranquil days today and Friday. Weak high pressure in general control of our weather, but an inversion in the lower atmosphere is causing an extensive blanket of broken clouds that will limit sun today, and just when they start to thin out, some higher level clouds will arrive with a disturbance passing by the region. I’ve removed any chance of precipitation from the short-term forecast though as I don’t think that disturbance has the ability to do it. And while the day will be tranquil Friday, clouds will also dominate ahead of our next storm system. At least the air will remain on the mild side as the region deals with cleanup from the previous storm. River flooding will peak today in most areas in the wake of that storm, before it recedes a bit on Friday. But look out, because another significant storm is set to impact the region Friday night into Saturday. This low pressure area is set to take a somewhat similar track to its predecessor, into the Great Lakes region. This puts us on the warm side of the storm, but it’s not “warmth” that we need to worry about. There may be just enough cold air for brief snow in higher elevations of north central MA and southwestern NH, but less impactful than last time since its a brief period and also occurring outside of main commute time (late Friday night). Otherwise this will be a rain event, a little less in scope than the last one, with a more general 1 to 2 inch rainfall. However, any appreciable rainfall will just prolong any ongoing flooding. Additionally, another period of strong winds is anticipated, maybe a little less than the last event but still enough to result in some tree / property damage. As with the last event, the strongest winds will be near the coast. Unfortunately, we’re also looking at another round of coastal flooding, especially around the time of Saturday’s late morning / midday high tide. Astronomical tides are a little higher than they were in the last event. Hopefully, the slightly weaker nature of this event will be enough to compensate and not make the flooding any more extensive than the previous episode. We will have to monitor this closely during the event, but it’s wise for anybody potentially effected to be ready for similar flooding. Improving weather is due as we move through Saturday afternoon and night. But this time, instead of staying mild like in the wake of the storm before it, there is colder air to tap and deliver into the region as we move through the remainder of the holiday weekend Sunday and Monday. Dry weather will accompany the colder trend.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Highs 40-47. Highs 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 25-32. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Highs 40-47. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain develops, may start as snow north and west of Boston. Lows 33-40 early, rising overnight. Wind E-SE 5-15 MPH evening, SE 15-35 MPH with gusts above 40 MPH inland and above 50 MPH coast overnight.

SATURDAY: Cloudy morning with rain likely. Breaking clouds afternoon. Highs 48-55. Wind SE-SW 15-35 MPH with higher gusts, especially early.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind W 15-25 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind W 15-25 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 21-28. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY (MLK JR DAY): Mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 16-20)

Colder weather pattern with temperatures near to below normal. Storm threats January 16 and 20, the first most likely a snow event for most or all of the region. The one later in the period TBD for regionwide precip-type and other details.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 21-25)

One or two opportunities for passing storms to deliver precipitation as the pattern remains active, but also colder. This increases opportunities for additional snowfall.

240 thoughts on “Thursday January 11 2024 Forecast (7:38AM)”

  2. Overnight Euro run continues the theme of two snowstorms next week. The late week storm is an absolute bomb.

    GFS on board for Tuesday, now showing double barrel lows coming up the coast.

    2. Excuse me. The 2nd one is NOT a snowstorm according to the Euro and the 1st according to the Euro is mostly off shore.
      A royal SCREW job! We shall see how it pans out.

      #1

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&rh=2024011100&fh=150

      10:1 snow

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2024011100&fh=162&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

      #2

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2024011100&fh=216&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

      10:1 24 hour snow

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_024h-imp&rh=2024011100&fh=222&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    3. Although there is much time for the 19th/20th storm to come around, I am so far ENRAGED by the EURO’s portrayal of that event!!!! I saw that and heaved my breakfast!!!
      What a way to start a day!!!!!

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2024011100&fh=216&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

      24 hour QPF from that event. MORE rain to add to our troubles.

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=qpf_acc-imp&rh=2024011100&fh=222&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

      Now the Canadian and the GFS do NOT agree with this prognostication, so there is certainly hope. I just don’t need to look at this bull shit first thing in the morning!

  3. Thanks TK !

    The Saturday noon tide is 0.8 ft higher at Hampton Beach and 0.9 ft higher in Portland, ME than yesterday’s tide.

    So even if the surge and watershed river feed is a bit lower this event, I think they may well get the same flooding as yesterday.

  4. Later today

    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1300_torn.gif

    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1300_wind.gif

    Tomorrow

    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_0700.gif

    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2probotlk_0700_torn.gif

    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2probotlk_0700_wind.gif

    The pro of the 500 mb jet not sipping all the way to the Gulf is less deep moisture.

    The con of that is it brings the dynamics further north and so the severe threat is further north this go around.

  5. Thanks TK
    Tom thanks for posting the SPC links for tomorrow. I will be giving my mom and stepdad a heads up as they are down in Florida for the month.

  6. They are down in The Villages northwest of Orlando. I am hoping the weather is good Monday night. My mom and stepdad got tickets for the Eagles Buccaneers game.

    1. Nice.

      My wife and daughter are in the Tampa area for a few days before my daughter returns to College.

      Nice get on those football tickets. I’m thinking if they like the Cowboys like you do, they will be cheering on the Bucs.

  7. An observation :

    Models, which for a long time, have been terrible beyond 3 days ….

    They all snuffed out the last storm and this next one about 8-10 days ago. They have had them for a long time and pretty accurately, in my opinion.

    My guess is because of the dominance of the set-up and the size of the storms.

    So …….. looking ahead, Euro with 1 intense storm but not the GFS.

    Kinda makes me think smaller systems going forward since not all the models are locking in.

    Still can be big snows. Cold enough and .5 melted can still fall as 10-15 inches of powder. But, I’m thinking less intense storms after the next one since all the models dont have them, unlike these last 2.

  9. Thanks, TK.

    As you’ve pointed out we’re in a gradual transition towards a colder pattern. But, I still do not see a real intrusion of cold air or even a sustained period of cold. In fact, I see at best normal/average temps for the time of year, going forward. I’m also quite skeptical about snow chances. Are there any on the table? Yes, absolutely. More than in the previous pattern. Will coastal regions in SNE get much snow? No. I don’t think so, at least not beyond small amounts that get washed away quickly or melt fast. Will we get more rain? Yes. And not just from Saturday’s system.

    2. I disagree with pretty much everything you said there. I can understand your frustration with how things have gone the past few seasons and this season to date but it’s a new pattern moving forward. I think you’ll be much happier a week from now.

      1. I just hope that the Euro depiction for the 19th/20th is too far West by 100-150 miles. Plenty of time on that one.
        Sure is a STRONG signal for a significant storm. We just
        have to make sure that the precipitation type cooperates.

          1. Hope so. I can’t tell you how disturbed I was when I looked at that run this morning!!!!!!!!!

            I am getting over it now, but man was I PISSED!!!!

            1. You dont want it to show a big hit verbatim at 9 days out. Those almost never pan out. Save that for the runs 3-4 days out 🙂

  10. If I was Belichick I’d retire.

    My concern for him is that he goes to another franchise and it’s more of the same mediocrity (well, poor performance). In turn, this further tarnishes his reputation. The man doesn’t have the same abilities he used. Moreover, he’s very much stuck in his ways.

    There’s no shame in any of that. Gosh we all age. I’m 59 and am not nearly as effective at what I do as I was 20 years ago. I fully expect to continue to deteriorate. And that’s okay.

    1. You comment about deterioration, reminds of H. L. Mencken:
      One day toward the end of his life, H. L. Mencken is said to have come upon his own obituary in the files of the Baltimore Sun . He read it through and, to the intense relief of its anxious author, pronounced it satisfactory. Then he asked that one more line be added: “As he got older, he got worse.”

      This is from
      https://www.americanheritage.com/lost-mencken

      1. Wow! All of this doom and gloom about aging.
        I am 76 and feel sharper that at any other point in my life.
        Am I delusional? Don’t think so, but hey, perhaps I am.
        Physically I feel ALL of the ravages of aging, but mentally I have never felt better. Go figure. 🙂

        Continuing to work in a technical job and ranting on this blog have certainly helped to keep me sharp (or so I think) 🙂

    2. I think he is more set in his stubborn ways than he has lost a step.
      What he did to Mac Jones is unforgivable!

  12. I’m deteriorating mentally. I’m envious of people like JP Dave who feel sharper as they age.

    I’m slower and less agile mentally and remember less (especially short term). It’s extraordinarily frustrating. Alas, to put it in BB’s terms “it is what it is.”

      2. Hmmmm I didn’t know we are the same age. I’m still just me but maybe with some snark added. So this is a big yesr for both of us.

  13. Dave, we have a totally different take on the models this morning. At 5 and 9 days out, I am just looking for the models to have the storms, have them be south and east of us, and cold air to be in place. We check the box on all three. You know we are going to have the windshield wiper effect until then.

    Euro track verbatim Tuesday is still a moderate snowstorm and 75 miles closer, probably a significant snowstorm for many. Plenty of time. And you know that late week storm at 9 days out is over amped like the Euro always does. A little weaker and 50 miles to the east and we have a major snow event.

    This is a great look on the models for next week at this lead time.

  16. It was a mistake to fire BB, 2 bad years, ok with many coaches that could lead to a firing but for someone with BB record who are we going to replace him with? Where is the loyaly. I respect BB way more than I do Kraft. Kraft has done shady stuff as a person, while BB goes around and does good things with the kids and fans. You might see a grumpy old man but if you listen to anyone that works with him, that played for him, they respected him, he was funny according many people. His grumpy look was to the media because he hates the media. I hate the media. Watch next year the Patriots are not in the playoffs and probably for another 4 years and go through 2 head coaches. Bill where ever he goes will be in the playoffs next year

    Now this blow to the team, could become minimal if they keep things in house. Get Mayo or Vrabel as head coach and I think it will be a quicker rebuild.

        1. I’m not going to pretend to have a list of replacements, because I don’t.

          But, understanding there’s risk it won’t work out, I’ll try anyone.

          I just think the offensive part of the game has evolved beyond his perception of what it should be. And I think his roster building in the last 3-5 years has been worst more than its been great. I do give him credit for Gonzalez, but hammer him on Meyers for Shuster and drafting Cole Strange and for not being able to pick a WR and on and on and on.

          And absolutely, if he’s not going 13-3 or 14-2, want someone human at press conferences. I’m so sick of his act when he talks to the press.

  17. BB lost it and an outsider looking in how can you all
    Not see this was Brady. His record outside of Brady he’s been nothing but poor. The game passed him by years ago, the Pats should look for a fresh start and not more of the same. It won’t work anymore.

  18. Well I didn’t know he was fired until I just saw Matt’s comment.

    I don’t think he was deteriorating mentally but may be wrong. Before after Brady, Belichick has a poor record.

    Hindsight being a wonderful thing, Brady was enormous influence on coaching the team. I remember him actually taking Gronk by the shoulders and positioning him on the field. When he openly coached the Bucs on and off the field, there was a ton of criticism from folks here. In good part it was from those who hated him for leaving. Arian’s ended up having an interview discussing how he welcomed Brady’s coaching style

    While I know a truly good coach would step away on his own, I honestly would have kept supporting him whether we won or lost. I won’t even get into his ego causing Brady to leave New England. But when he very likely destroyed a career because of his enormous ego, he lost me.

    End result….he caused this all on his own

      1. because Kraft wants to save face, this has kraft written all over it. Kraft is tryin to make it so that if BB goes to another team and wins, it doesn’t come back and bit him in the but like I think it will.

  21. I hope the rain ends quickly Saturday morning. I don’t know if my basement can take an additional 1”+ of rainfall. My only real concern is the oil burner. Fingers crossed.

    I am 63 and not quite old enough to officially retire to get full benefits but too old to do my job like when I was younger.

    1. So sorry, Philip. It’s taking a toll on my son and his wife and it’s both of them. I’m also hoping for rain to end early. Or fizzle altogether

  23. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2024011112&fh=21&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2024011112&fh=45&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    Explosive development, 23 mb in 24 hrs

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2024011112&fh=66&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    Sometimes storms keep intensifying for a while past our latitude into SE Canada.

    Still strong, but not this one, it reaches its full fury in the Great Lakes then fills just a bit. That won’t affect the outcomes much for us.

    1. I think the coast of Maine and NH are in trouble again Saturday noon-time.

      Massive astronomical tide just on its own.

      Add in a 2-3 ft storm surge while more rain is trying to get to the ocean from rivers. if they get a solid 1 inch prior to high tide.

      Yikes …….

      1. Tom my folks in Poland lost power at 3am yesterday as these storms are doing a number on them . Everything is on a well so no running water according to my dad & more snow this weekend & next week

  25. Thanks TK. I remain in good agreement with you on the overall pattern and would say confidence is probably above average that much of SNE will see above normal snow the next few weeks. And good, sustained cold too. Very different than the past couple of years…

    1. Non weather guarantee ….

      My wife and daughter have an evening flight back from Florida Tuesday.

      We’re getting hit.

          1. If it comes to be, even IF flight is not canceled, it might be wise for them to reschedule and pick up a flight the next day,

        1. It’s a parade of WATER!!!!

          Probably NOTHING to do with the
          Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai volcano Eruption.

          Nah, NOTHING to do with that!!!! 🙂

    1. It’s days out & nothing is a lock . High is 37 Tuesday but Wednesday’s high is 27 low at 19 with 40% chance of snow both days

          1. And apps are useless for temps since it’s raw data vs what can change in the atmosphere leading up to those days.

  30. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=850th_nb&rh=2024011112&fh=222&r=nh&dpdt=&mc=

    I wish I had posted one of these while our side of the hemisphere was mild in Dec and early Jan.

    Towards the top and somewhat left of center, if you could have seen how much further south the cold (purple) extended when the US was mild to warm.

    So, this should give more confidence that the cold is coming to this hemisphere. Its a world wide change in the pattern.

    This shows the arctic cold lifting and/or easing some in Asia and the other side of the world.

      1. So, everything on the 12z so far seems to have wipered NW

        That created a good result on the 12z GFS since the 00z GFS was too far offshore.

        1. Right, so bottom line who knows what gives!!!

          I still think the 16th looks snowy here and it is just a matter of how much? A few inches to 6+ inches…. We shall see.

          I am more concerned with the 19th/20th.

          Where did it go on the GFS and the CANADIAN. ONLY
          the Euro has it.

          12Z EURO you can’t come out soon enough!

          2. If I’ve heard TK right, sometimes how the preceding system behaves (track/intensity) affects what the next one does.

  33. Incredible webcam video of the EF2 tornado that touched down in SC during the storm Tuesday. Watch the cars driving by and then look at what happens right after!

    SC Emergency Management Division
    @SCEMD
    3h

    Caught on Camera: Video of the confirmed EF-2 tornado touching down in Bamberg during Tuesday’s storm. (Courtesy: Anthony Hurley)
    @NWSColumbia

    https://x.com/SCEMD/status/1745452471231922583?s=20

    1. Wow! Does this guy have thickest Scottish Accent I have ever heard. Tough listening, but interesting. 🙂

        1. I wouldn’t worry too much about the details on those runs. 12z ECMWF misfired. Something amiss on that operational run. One look at the EPS is all you need. Total red flag.

  38. From Bernie Rayno
    I am very skeptical of the 12z EURO. Stalled boundary with along the gulf coast with arctic air across the Midwest and additional energy dropping south tells me there is a storm threat along the coast Monday into Tuesday. I am going to continue with that messaging

    1. I was running around this afternoon and running through my head was the process of the EURO 0Z run having a 945MB Bomb in NNE on the 19th/20th to today’s 12Z run with NOTHING!!!!!
      I smelled a RAT and a big one at that.

      As soon as I had free time, I was going to look at the ensembles.
      You all beat me to it and saved me the time!!! 🙂

      Thanks

  43. Non Weather related.

    I have been running into a problem with word press where while typing I accidentally hit some mystery key that opens up into
    some weird window from which I have to exit.

    Has anyone seen that before or is it just my issue alone?
    Or I am that bad a typist!! Damn just did it again. It opened up
    a Norton Safe Search Window!!!!!!

    Thanks

    1. I have not had that happen. Are you using your computer or a device. And if it opens Norton, I doubt it means a virus but maybe??

  45. Just received an EverSource robo call about the storm tomorrow night. You’d think it was Armageddon!

    2. I wouldn’t. Not saying it’s huge, but it’s not “gone” just because a couple model runs had something different.

      Every piece of reliable info says don’t write that one off.

      1. He said he’s backing off on the Tuesday storm , he did not say it’s gone . Wankum is an outstanding met & he may or may not be correct .

        1. You don’t need to remind me that he’s a great met. I have known him for years. And I didn’t say that you said he said it was gone. I just said it’s not gone. Don’t turn this into something it isn’t please.

          I’m going to give my meteorological opinion and if it differs from another’s then that’s just a professional disagreement. They happen every day.

                2. I don’t get. If he did look at the ensembles, I’d like to know what is running through his head.

                  Is it a hunch?

                  I know from watching him in the past, I think he leans heavily on the Euro. 🙂

      1. There is a changeover to light rain/mix in the end over eastern SNE as the low tracks over Boston but not before significant accumulation. Interior areas and NNE do great as well.

      1. SSK let me be clear, I’m not shooting any messengers, and I totally respect Mike W. and his forecasting. I have nothing bad to say about any of my fellow mets. They can do/say as they see fit. Whatever we say, myself included, carries its own risk of being wrong, and reward of being right.

        The only thing I was stating when I replied originally is that I don’t agree with what he said, professionally. I wouldn’t back off that system this far out with 1 or 2 operational model runs showing it less amplified and further out. We see stuff like that all the time. And the I went on to explain that the model that had an operational run that kicked 2 previously forecast events into non-existence did not have any support from ensembles, which is key when forecasting in medium ranges.

        I’m not faulting Mike for saying it. Maybe he looked at the ensembles and decided that the operational run is the most likely to verify. I have no idea. All I said was I didn’t agree with backing off and wouldn’t do it myself. Nothing more, nothing less.

        I know Wankum. He’s a great guy. He races with my friend’s husband. We’ve chatted. He’s a very good forecaster and he can choose to present his meteorological opinions whichever way he wants. It’s all good.

        We’ll see how things unfold going forward.

        1. Tk relax man you are reading way to much into this , Jesus I just posted what another met said , I was surprised he said that , let’s move on please !!! All good

    4. I just posted it above as well and agree, he clearly didnt have time to review all the data before he went on the air. Model ensemble consensus today is actually CLOSER to the coast than yesterday.

      2. I would have posted it but I don’t know how , I don’t make things up . Guess we will see on Tuesday right .

  54. If Wankum said backing off again a few minutes ago, was it live or a replay of a previous clip? If he just said it again, he should have had time to review the ensembles. So that leads me to wonder what is on his mind? TK gave a thought. I don’t really have one except to say I think he “tends” to lean on the Euro. I dunno

    We shall see come Tuesday. 🙂

    1. …..And Euro EPS support a storm. What met is taking operational runs verbatim at 5 days out and not cross checking with the ensembles?

      Oh well, I dont get him here in CT and dont ever watch him so I will give him the benefit of the doubt that he has some valid meteorological reason for his opinion beyond one operational run of the Euro.

    1. The first storm is so strong and NW that it hits the block and retrogrades towards Hudson Bay. For a minute I thought that it was going to loop back down and hit us again on the 20th as a clipper!

      Long story short, I think that what happens with the first storm is going to impact the fate/existence of the second storm.

        1. My friend joked when I brought up a similarity to the January 1978 pattern that we had a notable storm here on 1/20/1978. Yup. We did. Boston set a record, 21 inches of snow in 12 hours, that was broken 2 weeks later. 😉

  58. Wankum is the only met that posts the raw snow numbers from the models. You don’t know how many people reach out when they see that and ask are those numbers happening or not. Again he’s a good guy j am sure but no met should be posting raw numbers from the models on air days in advance. Causes tons of confusion

    1. Trying to visit my folks Vicki in Poland Maine but they are getting hit with storm after storm each time loosing power & running water for days .

          1. Oh wow. Not bad then. I would have guessed longer. My daughter in laws family is six. But I can never remember where they are

  61. From Ryan Hanrahan for the storm threat next Tuesday. A little different than Mike Wankum.

    Tuesday is looking interesting! Snow is possible with a developing coastal storm. Plenty of time to watch but worth keeping an eye on.

  62. Last tweet of the day from Bernie Rayno

    headed to bed. About next week. Given the pattern I believe there is a snow threat along the East Coast Monday into Tuesday, although I certainly do not have the details. While no one respects the ECMWF more than me, one run this far out will not change my mind…yet..

  63. I transcribed what Mike Wankum said precisely:

    “Now, you may remember yesterday I was talking about a storm potential Tuesday? Kind of backing off on that one right now because it looks like it may be too weak and out to sea which would mean we’d have some dry weather moving in.. COLD… but dry”

    And here’s his 7 day: https://ibb.co/P6nsLtf

  64. I don’t really understand what the big deal is over Mike’s take on Tuesday.

    a) it’s a possible outcome

    b) Mike’s presentations are, to me, very high quality. To the non passionate weather person, he keeps it real simple and easy to understand.

    But, he’s very vanilla. Like no technical meteorology terminology. Now, it might be he knows meteorology very well, but if he does, he never talks high end meteorology. He talks to the folks that want it simple, is it going to be sunny, cloudy …… rain or snow. I rarely ever hear words like dynamics or instability or those words that many of the other tv folks mix in occasionally.

    So, my point is, how much meteorology does he know or does he just go with the op runs and lives with them. Wonder if he takes in the ensembles and all that other stuff.

    If he does, it’s amazing how he never shows any of that on air. Very vanilla, talks weather on the simplest terms.

    Again though, outstanding presentation.

    2. I didn’t think what he said was a big deal myself & did not think it would blow up the blog lol . Was I a bit surprised sure but Mike seems like a straight shooter he tells it like he sees it .

    1. Yup.

      Unfortunately, the wind at the NH sea coast appears onshore (SE) right up to 10/11am, only 1 hr before high tide and then as you head northeast up the Maine coast, onshore up to high tide.

      And Saturday’s day tide is practically the highest tide of the month. And, they get flooded from both directions, the ocean and the flooded rivers emptying into the ocean. A tremendous amount of water piling on from inland.

      At least in a blizzard, it’s only the ocean surge cause accumulating snow doesn’t flood the rivers.

      1. I believe you said this area would be hard hit days ago. My York fiends are in FL but I think returning this weekend. I’d sent your thoughts to them

        1. I hope it works out for them.

          We love the York, ME area.

          Big fan of short and long sands beaches and Nubble light and the little town at short sands beach.

            1. I should have added. Mac and I stayed at stage neck inn many times. York is lovely. My guess is were mac still here we may have retired there also. So much to offer

                1. Wow Bill. These are absolutely stunning. Thank you. Is it all right if I share these with my friends in York?

                  Best,
                  Vicki

    1. Oh I get that for sure !

      Again, I think Mike is a top presenter of a weather cast.

      I guess I just don’t hang on the meteorology basis of his presentation though, so, I tend not to place as much weight on it compared to if it came from other Mets.

    1. The last storm seemed to have more negative tilt, so like the rain was traveling practically due S to N up the coast.

      This next one doesn’t seem to have that negative tilt, the rain should be moving more SW to NE and so I do by the heaviest rain in south and southeast areas like the HRRR is showing.

      I think north of the mass border, it is close to 1 inch but not tremendously more.

      2. I think we are going to be looking at rain totals of half to two thirds what we received in the last storm. Given the lesser rain amounts and most of the snow has now melted, should be less flooding and less impactful overall.

        2. I hope you are right. I know the blackstone that runs behind my son’s property is still in flood. But I’ve noticed water areas have dropped considerably here. Althiugh suttom controls a fair amount of its water runoff and I have yet to figure it out

          1. The rivers and streams still are swollen but hopefully will come down some in the next 24 hours before this next round of rain begins.

  73. The difference in the 500 mb flow on last night’s 00z gfs vs tonight is very different in multiple places.

    It’s going to be 3 days probably til Tuesday is resolved.

    Over the US, near Hudson Bay, what differences at 500 in the 2 runs.

    1. I mean with those kind of differences aloft, well, if I’m suspicious of the 12z euro, then I have to be suspicious of this 00z GFS run for Tuesday.

      If we get consistency on it with other models and for a couple days going forward, then I’ll be more likely to buy into whatever that consistency becomes.

  74. All I can say is that I am glad that Mike Wankum was not named the Chief Met after Harvey retired. Cindy was/is the better choice imo.

    I believe that Cindy is the only woman Chief Met on Boston television, if not the first.

  75. Good morning, re Tuesday:

    1. 0z Canadian, 6z GFS, and 6z ICON all with a major costal storm
    2. 0z Euro still weaker and out to sea

    For the late week storm threat, Euro and Canadian now have something again. Nothing on the GFS.

      1. Iwas just looking at that. still, majority of members off shore.
        Did Wankum know sonething we all issed? I am now beginni g to wonder. I think it’s been aehile since we had model agreement 4-5 days out.

        2. gfs gives big hit Tues while ukmet, icon and cmc all come inside some for snow to rain YET the euro is off shore. sonerhing ain’t right!!!!

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