Sunday January 14 2024 Forecast (9:02AM)

259 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 14-18)

Colder times are ahead in a more sustained way than we’ve seen for a while. It starts with the passage of an arctic cold front today. This front will cross the region from west to east this afternoon and produce a band of convection. While there may be an isolated rain/snow shower ahead of it and some isolated to scattered snow showers/squalls behind it, the main line, which I expect to cross the WHW forecast area between about 2:30 and 6:00 p.m., will be pretty solid across most of the area. There may be rain involved in it the further east and southeast you are, with higher chance of that south of Boston, but even areas that start with rain can flip very quickly to snow. Thunder is possible with the main convective band, and snowfall rates that can drop up to 2 inches of snow in under a 1 hour period. Strong wind gusts and very low visibility will accompany this line. Also, a quick accumulation of snow, even if rain falls first, will freeze rather quickly as darkness falls and temperatures drop behind the frontal boundary. Please be aware of these hazards if out and about this afternoon and evening. Monitor much like you’d monitor for possible thunderstorms.

Cold air settles in tonight and hangs around for the Monday MLK Jr holiday and beyond. Our next storm threat will be a wave of low pressure on an offshore frontal boundary passing by to our southeast on Tuesday and Tuesday night. This looks like it will produce a widespread light to moderate snowfall for the region mainly Tuesday afternoon and evening. Dry and cold weather returns after this event for midweek.

TODAY: Mostly sunny morning. Clouds advance west to east afternoon with a few isolated rain/snow showers by mid afternoon then a squall line of mostly snow and some graupel (some rain east of I-95 mainly south of Boston) with accumulations of a coating to 1 inch of snow likely and locally up to 2 inches, including possible thunder. Watch for rapid icing up of untreated surfaces during and after. Highs 36-43. Wind SW 15-25 MPH shifting to W by late in the day.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy with a brief snow shower/squall possible early, then clearing. Lows 16-23. Wind W 5-15 MPH. Wind chill falling below 10.

MONDAY (MLK JR DAY): Mostly sunny. Highs 25-32. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible. Wind chill below 20 at times.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear evening. Clouds arrive overnight. Lows 16-23. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Clouds thicken. Snow develops during the afternoon south to north. Highs 25-32. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy in the evening with snow likely. Expected snowfall accumulation 3 to 5 inches but under 3 inches possible South Coast. Breaking clouds overnight. Lows 15-22. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 27-34. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 12-19. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 19-23)

Colder / active pattern continues. Watching for a winter storm threat later January 19 into the start of the January 20-21 weekend. Another disturbance may bring snow showers later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 24-28)

Cold eases with more seasonable temperatures heading into late month, but the pattern remains active with at least one storm threat during this period, leaning mid period.

259 thoughts on “Sunday January 14 2024 Forecast (9:02AM)”

  1. Good morning and thank you TK.

    I watched ch 10 and I don’t care for the weekend mets.
    In any case, the person on was Sydney and she said
    a burst of RAIN today. I told my wife that she was full of shit
    and even if it started as rain that it would very quickly go right over to rain. Oh and to add insult to injury she showed a model
    precipitation depiction map that CLEARLY SHOWED SNOW!!!
    Gotta love consistency!!!! I CAN’T STAND IT!_)@!(#*_@(@_!

      1. Tom the simulation you posted yesterday looked even more ominous. We’ll see how it plays out. Looking forward to it.

  7. Not for nothing, but we are sitting at January 14th and the water temperature at Boston Buoy, 16 NM East of Boston is
    44.1 !!!! That is outrageous!!!!

    Wind off of that water and lighter snow “could” spell mIx and/or rain. We need a somewhat more heavier snow and a wind
    with a more Northerly component.

    Waiting on 12Z NAM. Almost there.

  8. Thanks TK. Looking forward to the snow squalls later. Love these kind of days. Sky was awesome yesterday.

  10. Before I forget,

    For movie fans out there, you may want to have a look at
    A Good Person available free with a PRIME subscription.

    It stars Morgan Freeman and Florence Pugh and it is a truly magnificent movie. One of the better movies my wife and I have ever seen. Right up there with the best of them.
    Outstanding performances by both actors mentioned.
    A riveting film full of human emotions. You have to see it
    to understand.

  12. This afternoon with those snow squalls it will be like a summer afternoon tracking thunderstorms. Were seeing activity out west. Now lets see what happens when it enters SNE and if it holds together as it pushes east.

  20. Looking at the snow squall warnings there moving east between 30-35mph. Just like thunderstorms in the summer some towns will get a good snow squall other towns nothing.

    1. It’s taking it’s time evolving to Tuesday’s outcome. 🙂

      By that, I’m not implying a big hit Tuesday, but the gfs hasn’t exactly figured out 1-3, 2-4 or something like that either.

      1. The GFS blows chunks!

        To me the likely snow amount is about 3 inches give or take.
        A big WHOPPER of a storm. Call out the National Guard!!!
        Make the bread and milk runs now before it’s too late!!!

        1. The GFS has had an issue resolving both pieces of energy. Not surprising. This is why I haven’t relied on it for guidance on this upcoming event.

  28. I continue to be intrigued, that for 8-10 days, the models first identified and then maintained consistency on the 2 big SE wind rainstorms.

    I think cause the jet stream was so strong and dominant. And, I think there was one main flow, there wasn’t a lot of effect on the pattern from Canada.

    Now, I think the models are struggling again to within 24-36 hrs of the event because it’s a more complicated pattern. There is some effect from what’s going on in Canada. There’s a bit more ridging on the west coast and the disturbances are having to come into BC further north where there is probably less balloon data.

    I think unlike the 2 powerhouse storms, we’re back to having to be patient almost up to the event for the models to fully project them correctly.

    That was an unusual 8-10 days of seeing storms early with consistency thereafter in the simulations for them.

    1. Typical in a transitional pattern. We had some consistency for just long enough for them to be “on it”. Now it’s different.

  29. 12z guidance regarding Tuesday doesn’t make me change my mind: 3-5 inch snowfall (may be a few heavier swaths favoring N & W with higher ratios, and a few lower amounts to the SE with lower ratios). It’s not an “intense” system. Its’ a fairly flat wave. But I expect most people will have to break out a shovel and plenty of plows will be out to make the buck$! But it should be a fairly simple cleanup.

    For the rest of today I’m shifting focus to today’s threat. It’s far more important at the moment.

    1. 🙂
      Thank you.
      So far snow squalls in NY state are intense. What happens
      during the Eastward trek is the big question.

  33. At least for the next 168 hrs, 7 days, it’s the most consistent signal for cold and possible snow opportunities I think New England has experienced in 2 years.

    Snow squalls, daily high tenps low-mid 30s or lower and 2 other snow opportunities.

    1. The next 3 or 4 weeks will carry this. After that I still like the idea of cold, but a drier trend.

  36. Cooler, sure. Also looks nice outside. Will try and take advantage of the (mostly) drier and colder period this week.

    Don’t have Peacock so couldn’t watch the Chiefs-Dolphins game, but did see a few images from the stadium. Definitely had some cold envy. My kind of weather. Send some here. I’m afraid that it’ll be in mitigated form, but at least it’ll feel `normal.’

    1. I have it & it was a cold game . Unfortunately I was rooting for the fish as I think Patrick is a great athlete & how can you not like Andy but I think Patrick is a little cocky & that kind of rubs me the wrong way .

      1. I enjoy reading his posts.

        I sometimes don’t agree with every take he has, but, the quality of the posts are really good.

        1. He sometimes goes off on interesting tangents but he’s very passionate. He’s not what some people think he is even though a lot of his posts will give that impression. I have told him about that a few times but I think it’s a hard habit to break…

          As for science, he is one of the better scientists that I have ever been associated with. He covers everything.

  39. Thanks TK.

    Snow squall threat is very legit today. Better on a weekend than a weekday, but still, will make things very treacherous in places when they come through.

    I still stubbornly think the Tuesday storm is able to organize more than what most of the guidance shows. A 3-5” forecast is the only reasonable play right now, you can’t completely ignore the models, but there’s room for higher…

    1. The best part of that for me is the advertisement in the upper right. I was on the Freddie Freihofer show two times.

      I have a photo that looks a lot like this, but this is not one with me:

      https://ibb.co/QPCR3z2

      1. Check out some of the faces on those kids, especially the two by Freddie’s shoulders. Some of them clearly say, “My parents are making me do this.”

  45. Wow, the euro for end of this workweek.

    It could miss or graze and not amount to much, but the setup looks like it has the potential to drop a lot of snow.

  49. Thanks, TK. Was out early this morning. Bright sunshine but very cold and very windy. Some gusts almost blew me away! Cloudy here now and just waiting for the first snowflakes of the coming snow.

  58. On a very very small scale, within the disturbance, that is almost like a mini mild front with some convergence along it. It’s got a good burst of snow, as it’s passing through here.

    2. Same here. Burst when that came through but staying somewhat light to moderate with some yellow returns to west to come. Temp came down from 39 to 35 with the snow so far.

  59. Those snow squalls out by Springfield could be far more intense than the radar projects, which is probably mostly shooting right above them.

  60. Look at the bow in the echo going through Athol, Gardner right now, has to have some heavy duty winds with that along with very heavy snow.

  63. So missing the snow just to the South of the city.
    I was just out and it is very dark to my South and SW, but
    Nothing, other than a few leading flakes earlier.

    MY Radar Scope seems to show STRONGER echoes
    than the NWS display posted above.

    Now the echoes out by Athol and Amherst /Belcher town look extremely intense. Will it hold up Eastward?

    1. OK, a bit of snow in the air here. Will I get into the more intense snow with this batch? I don’t know. I am right on the edge. I don’t think so.

  66. Action Recommended
    Avoid the subject event as per the instructions
    Issued By
    Boston – MA, US, National Weather Service
    Affected Area
    Worcester County
    Description
    The National Weather Service in Boston/Norton has issued a
    Snow Squall Warning for… Northwestern Tolland County in northern Connecticut… Northern Hartford County in northern Connecticut… West central Worcester County in central Massachusetts… Southeastern Hampshire County in western Massachusetts… Southeastern Franklin County in western Massachusetts… Hampden County in western Massachusetts…

    Until 315 PM EST.

    At 226 PM EST, a dangerous snow squall was located along a line extending from near Westhampton to near Granby, moving east at 40 mph.

    HAZARD…Intense bursts of heavy snow. Gusty winds leading to blowing snow and visibility rapidly falling to less than one-quarter mile. Wind gusts greater than 35 mph.

    SOURCE…Radar and webcams.

    IMPACT…Travel will become difficult and potentially dangerous within minutes.

    Locations impacted include… Springfield, Chicopee, Enfield, Westfield, Holyoke, Amherst, Windsor, Northampton, Agawam, West Springfield, Simsbury, Ludlow, Bloomfield, South Hadley, Easthampton, Longmeadow, Suffield, East Longmeadow, Ellington, and Belchertown.

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
    Reduce speed and turn on headlights! During snow squalls, the visibility may suddenly drop to near zero in whiteout conditions.

    SNOW SQUALL…OBSERVED

    1. I fear this is ALL I will get today as I think the intense echo
      to the West will Pass North of me. A miss to the South and a miss to the North. Story of my life. 🙂

  69. Nice to be getting a snow squall when your sump pump is still going from a rain storm, the day before, lol.

    1. It’s been pretty consistent but still 48 hours out and TK’s adjustment has plenty of time to occur. I think this year you will be doing your cowabungas the night before.

  73. For my area, I am just about ready to Declare the Snow Squalls
    a total BUST! Not discounting other areas.

  75. My son just reported a lightning strike and thunder in downtown Middleborough! He said the tavern he’s in shook! A very intense snow squall!

  76. Winds are wild here but no snow. Looks dark to the southwest and brighter to northwest. I think Sudbury is going to miss it. Radar seems to show smaller areas of snow but don’t know if they will hit here.

      1. Sorry you are missing the heaviest stuff. Thunder. No such thing here.

        It looks like the energy/lift/whatever Jumped Eastward.
        Weird.

  79. Pittsfield/Bennington, VT area ….

    Can those moderate echoes hold together ?

    Might be on a line to hit Boston and vicinity and with it dark and 1-2F cooler later on, I wonder if that can leave something on the ground in Boston ???????

  81. Hmmm the intense Squall in North Central MA seems to have
    sprung a Southern Extension down towards Holden. Will it reach boston? Die or go North of the city. I say North or die.

    Retrac, you out there? What’s happening?

  84. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=ne&band=09&length=24

    I think and it’s a guess ……

    There’s good lift not just ahead of the cold front, but also a decent low level SW jet moving through extreme SE Mass.

    As we’ve learned with these low level jets, they have good lift and I’ll bet there’s extra low level convergence being added by the tiniest warmth and moisture coming off the ocean south of the south coast.

    So the models snuffed out the squalls and that convergence but may have underplayed the 2nd lift/convergence giving a thunderstorm in far se mass.

    This could be totally wrong, it’s a guess

  87. Sun put in se sutton. Temp 37. Highest gust has been 30.2. But I would have liked the kestrel to be higher up. I need to figure a better place for it

  88. Very weird but kind of beautiful sky. To the southwest it is dark; then an area just to our west the sky looks orange w/some blue sky and to the northwest it has gotten very dark. But it is getting dark here. It’s hard to tell where and what direction this whole thing is going. Warnings seem to be south and east of us. This is why one of the reasons I love the weather – so unpredictable at times (not if it’s really bad) but beautiful at times.

  91. I hope that anyone caught in one of these squalls is careful whether in a car or outside. That’s not one of the nice sides of the weather that I like.

  92. weak coastal low will bring light snow to region Tuesday. A widespread 1-3 inches is possible with localized areas of 4 inches. Closer to Cape Cod and the Islands, rain likely mixes in with snow due to temperatures above freezing.
    May be an image of map and text that says ‘Total Snowfall Tuesday Weather Forecast Office Boston/Norton, MA Issued Jan 14, 2024 3:25 PM EST 2-3″ Greenfield 91 3-4″ 3″ 49Jawrence Fitchburg Pittsfield 2-3″ Great Barrington 3-4″ Wore 2-3″ Boston 2-3″ Springfield wmm 95 2-3″ 2-3″ Torrington 2-3″ Hartford Willimantic 2-3″ Waterbury 2-3″ Providence Provincetown 49lymouth New Haven Hyannis 95121-2″ New Charlestown London New Bedford Oak Bluffs Nantucket Block Island NWSBoston/Norton Û weather.gov/box’
    May be an image of text

    Not having luck.

    Credit to Norton NWS

  93. CPC agrees with me.
    Below normal temps during the next week. A relaxation the week after, and now their 3-4 week outlook as below normal temps for the entire East Coast.

  94. 12 plays, 75 yards, Packers make an early statement in Dallas.

    This one is going to be a disappointment for the home team IMO.

    Yesterday I was 1 right, 1 wrong. 🙂

  96. Yesterday’s picks were
    Cleveland (wrong)
    KC (right)

    Today’s picks are
    Green Bay
    Detroit

    Monday’s picks
    Pittsburgh
    Tampa Bay

    1. Nope, but the penalty on the kick off was a bit questionable. They didn’t have to call that IMO.

  99. Now that the Cowboys stopped the Packers need to score here. Dak just missed Cee Dee Lamb on a 3rd and 8 on the first drive and they punted. Very disappointing to let the Packers go right down the field on the opening drive and score a touchdown. Still only down 7-0 with plenty of game left.

  100. My colleague I just chatted with agrees on a 3+ inch general snowfall for SNE for Tuesday.

  101. Prescott is terrible in these kinds of games. He’s a decent QB. But he’s NOT worth the money they spend on him. And he’s the opposite of clutch.

  103. Ch 5 1-3 south shore possibly 3+ Boston was not sure about that though AJ said , I do like him as well . Also said it’s about a 12 hour storm going most of Tuesday .

  104. Looks like one more round to come through my area.
    A bonus, if you will Not sure how intense it will be, but sure
    looks like SNOW will be in the air again soon.

  105. Go cowboys. Word on the street …or could be the front stairs..is Prescott is good for regular season but struggles with playoffs.

      1. The Washington Whatevers are not in the playoffs. 😉

        Actually, I wish they kept the name Football Team. It was awesome. 🙂

      2. Definitely not, a new regime is setting up so confident good times ahead. Still love seeing the Cowboys getting crushed.

  108. This is GOD AWFUL what me and all Cowboys are seeing right now. If they could score a touchdown before halftime get to 20-7 Cowboys get the ball to start the second half and score another touchdown there back in the game. I got a better chance of seeing a snowflake on Tuesday than that happening.

    1. I know who your coach is next year and, like Mike McCarthy, his first and last name start with the same letter.

      In fact, Jerry Jones might be calling him now.

  109. Besides the typical Prescott performance in a big game, the Cowboys look unprepared. McCarthy is one of the worst coaches in the NFL. Why he’s still there and why he got the job, I have no idea. Belichick would make something out of this team. He’s well past his prime, but practically anyone is better than McCarthy.

  112. Where’s Frank Reich?

    I’m old.

    Back up QB of great Buffalo playoff comeback in the early 90s and I think it was worse than 27-0

    1. Worse, actually. At least we know Mac doesn’t have much talent. Dak has talent but he cannot perform in big games. He’s exceptionally bad at decision-making and accuracy in these kinds of games.

      1. I respectfully disagree. I just don’t think that is fair. Mac’s rookie year showed his talent clearly…… till bb got hold of him.

        Rookie year…Mac threw his 20th TD pass, breaking Jim Plunkett’s 1971 franchise rookie re-record. He finished the season with 3,801 passing yds, 22 TDs, a 67.6 completion percentage, the highest among rookie QBs in 2021.

    2. Ok. I’ll pretend I didn’t see that ;). Although are you sure it isn’t Zappe. Bill may have damaged more than just one. But if you are referring to cowboys next coach as the one we just got rid of, I’d take a season of losses.

  117. Joshua when his contract is up at the end of next year I can’t give this guy Burrow Mahomes money.

    1. What was that pass? Neary picked off. Indecision. Anxious. I feel badly for him. C’mon Dak throw a touchdown, make it interesting.

  118. And with all that said, I think they have a decent chance to win.

    20 pts at home, with that offense, can easily be overcome.

  119. Just got caught in quite a squall in Natick Center—covered Route 27 in no time. And by the time I got home just 2 miles north the roads never got more than wet.

    1. My guess is that may be what I missed here. We didn’t have any snow and then we did. But I haven’t had time to check the radar.

  120. Last year Jaguars were down 27-0 and came back and won at home. Have to score a touchdown on this opening drive to start the second half.

  123. JJ, Cowboys could come back. But it took an extremely dumb play (unnecessary) from the Packers defender who fouled Prescott and a circus catch by Lamb to get them to within field goal range. Then Dak was nearly intercepted again. He still looks dreadful.

  125. Besides talent, preparation is paramount in football. The Cowboys were woefully unprepared on both sides of the ball for an actual playoff game. No adjustments. Nothing. Inexcusable.

    McCarthy should never coach in the NFL again. But rest assured he will.

    1. Ineptitude on an epic scale. What was Dak trying to do on 4th and 5? I understand going for it, but with what almost looked like a chuck it pass downfield. If I was a Cowboys fan I’d be livid.

      I say ineptitude on an epic scale because this IS a talented squad of Cowboys. But they look like they don’t know what they’re doing. Credit the Packers, sure. But the Cowboy play design and execution is feeble at best.

  126. They are treating our roads. I know if they treat in our little neighborhood in far SE sutton, they are treating all

  127. Who will be the next coach of my Cowboys? No way you could bring Mike McCarthy back after this embarrassing postseason performance.

    1. I’m sorry JJ. I hate games like this when you know both teams have talent that got them here. I’m impressed they continue to fight.

  128. This is a tough pill to swallow being a Cowboys fan today. I knew it wasn’t going to be easy against this Packers team. We were out coached out classed.

    1. Ohhhh there’s another. Who is playing now? Can you tell I’m very invested in this. 🙄 I watched the cowboys for JJ

  130. Lions are playing the Rams. The Lions have not won a playoff game since 1991 and are hosting a playoff game for the first time in 30 years.

    1. Ohhhh. I will go watch then. I hasn’t planned to but do love the underdog. Even if they are not technically an underdog. Thank you

    1. I’m going Bills . My good buddy grew up in Rochester NY as a Bills fan & we are always busting him , so for real I’m rooting for Buffalo

      1. Oh I’m going bills overall. Mac’s dad’s brother was EVP of Kodak. He’s the one who built the ski cabin in Stowe i speak of often. My business associate and I worked for years on strategic planning and other projects with kodaks credit union in Rochester…ESL.

    1. Just a shame because you know they are better than that. I’ve never liked blowouts. Even if my team is the one ahead.

  135. I am truly sorry JJs cowboys lost but as I watch the Lions celebrate I can’t help but think of the Red Sox 2004 victory and how it felt.

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