Tuesday January 16 2024 Forecast (7:15AM)

225 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 16-20)

A relatively weak low pressure area tracks northeastward today, making a pretty close pass, probably over Cape Cod / Islands later in the day before exiting via the Gulf of Maine. This track brings a light to moderate snowfall to the region in general, but also allows enough warm air to come in to change the snow to rain over Cape Cod and the Islands and at least bring some mix/change up toward the Boston area for a time during the afternoon. Pockets of sleet and freezing rain are possible in the mix area. None of that should be too long lasting, but untreated roads that see frozen / freezing precipitation can be slick today, so use caution and allow extra time if traveling. Conditions improve quickly tonight in terms of weather, but again any untreated surfaces that saw some melting or areas that saw rain will ice over due to cold air becoming firmly established. We have a dry and chilly midweek ahead as high pressure controls the weather. Watching another storm threat for late week – timing later Friday to very early Saturday right now. As it stands now, the upper level pattern doesn’t allow this to become a big winter storm for the region, but a light to moderate snowfall potential is definitely there, favoring areas further south. But there are still a few days to go to fine tune the details on this one.

TODAY: Overcast. Snow of varying intensity, mostly light to moderate, but changing to rain Islands / Cape Cod, and mixing with or changing to rain, freezing rain, and sleet for a while South Shore up to about Boston briefly, before ending as snow or snow showers early this evening. Snowfall accumulation a general 2 to 5 inches, highest amounts more likely west of I-95 including a few 5 to 7 inch potential totals hills north central MA to southwestern NH, and just a coating to 2 inches South Coast, least Cape Cod and Islands. Highs 25-32 west of I-95, 32-39 east of I-95. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Gradual clearing. 15-22. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 25-32. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 12-19. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 26-33. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 13-20. Wind N under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Clouding over. Snow likely by later in the day and at night. Highs 27-34. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Snow likely Lows 15-22. Wind NE-N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Clearing. Highs 22-29. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 21-25)

A moderating temperature trend takes place during this period. Starting with fair weather then turning unsettled with some snow/mix/rain later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 26-30)

Pattern look unsettled into or through mid period with a mild start then a colder trend and some potentially messy winter weather returning. Drier, seasonable trend late period.

225 thoughts on “Tuesday January 16 2024 Forecast (7:15AM)”

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.
    Looks like aghood inch here so far.
    snow is rather light and patchy.

    Not liking the prospects of sleet/freezing rain/rain.

  4. Friend in Washington DC area, great forecaster, was expecting no more than 3 inches. He awoke to 4.5. System continues to over-achieve expectation as it heads northeastward.

  5. Turns out the Canadian model at medium range was the best. The opposite of the too far east / out to sea scenario.

  8. I have 1 inch here and it is snowing lightly. It was moderate snowfall for a while in very early AM. Walked the shore which I like to do a lot in light snow. Peaceful and there was no wind to speak of. Temperature at 26.

  11. Thanks TK.

    Snowing lightly and steadily here in Coventry CT with about an inch on the ground. Temp is still pretty cold at 22.3F.

    Kids have a remote learning day today.

    1. Commute into school wasn’t bad. Wet. They held the attendance for 20 minutes. Plymouth and a couple of districts on the Cape had delays.
      Still no snow days for The Boro! Laser-focused on June 13!
      Seniors are NOT happy!!!!

      1. I’m think that streak is going to come to an end soon. Its only a matter of time!

        Here they can call up to two remote learning days and then they start using traditional snow days.

  12. Unless I am mistaken, Massachusetts public schools do not do remote days on snow days per DESE. It’s either in-person or closed. Many private schools do remote-learnings days in lieu of snow days.

    1. Prior to the pandemic, I believe NH schools and some MA schools, on a trial basis, did “Blizzard Bag” days on snow days.

    2. EPS and GEFS ensembles in general agreement with their respective model operational runs. Canadian ensembles are north along with its operational run.

      We route for the Canadian again. It actually was the first to sniff the further NW track out with this current storm at this lead time.

  14. I remember teasing my seniors at the end of January in 2015 about no snow days and then we had more than 100″ of snow in the second half of the winter!!!!!! 🙂

  21. Now the snow at least looks interesting. A very strong light snow now that looks like it wants to go moderate. Not sure if it will, but it looks MUCH better now. 🙂

  22. Snowing pretty moderately here in pembroke & I am guessing it’s around 2 inches or just under so my guess is wrong for here & I think I had Logan at no more than 2 inches . It’s all snow here but I’m suspecting that’s going to change after noontime.

  23. I agree with SSK. Snow here in Middleborough has picked up in the last 15 minutes. I just announced to my kiddos that dismissal will be at 1:50. It’s always at 1:50. I am such a troublemaker. 🙂

  29. Captain, you are correct. Per DESE.. Riley announced no remote in MA a couple of years ago….no matter how many kids or teachers were out sick.

    Mark, while I will always believe snow days are a right of childhood, I admire a state where it’s educational leaders are wise enough to use the technology learned during Covid well enough to keep schools open remotely as needed.

    I also did some digging on Worcester. One reliable source said its plow driver number is down about 50%. It has 223 buses, vans and handicap vehicles on the road each day. And unless things have changed since we lived in Framingham , sidewalks have to be cleared for school to be in session

    1. All of that said, I am sworn to secrecy re sutton and uxbridge closing since my grandkids are home schooled. Plus side is they get outside for quite a while each day and we have a sledding hill in our yard. …..we will see how well I do with that secrecy thing

    1. Go Get em!!! NICE!
      Snowing decently here, but I could not say pounded, not even close. We have maybe 2 inches now.

        1. It is 34F though and I see New Bedford has switched, so we are probably close to changing.

          But, we’ve gotten close to 3 if not 3.

  36. I may be all wet, but is there some sort of disconnect with the models and actual radar and ground reports. Models have ALL the snow to the North and West, exactly where the echoes are PALTRY. Doesn’t add up to me. 🙂

  38. Thanks, TK. Snowing here lightly. We have about 3 inches of snow. Hoping it stays snow, not just because I like snow, but any changeover to sleet, ice, etc. makes it more difficult for driving and walking. Hoping to see it keep snowing!

  44. A few interesting developments in the not too distant future. I may be changing my forecast for Thursday. More about that later…

    Also, don’t simply write off the late week threat.

    1. As they say in television that is a great tease. I will be waiting to hear what you have to say later.

  46. Snowing moderately now.

    Reminds me of a January 1997 mini storm that snuck up on us all and one in January 1998, too.

    TK alerted us to the potential for overachieving in places. He was right as usual.

  47. Snowing at a good clip in Natick. Assume from your comment a bit ago that you are not making any changes to numbers?

  49. Unfortunately those heavier echoes on the radar that have just moved in are NOT heavier snow. We have gone over to SLEET now after 2″. Still at 25F.

    2. So sleet line is roughly along I-84 now up towards Vicki and approaching Boston I would presume.

      Vicki did you flip?

    3. Exactly Mark !

      It changes quickly !!

      Now sleet/rain.

      But, we got 3 or a little more and its now compact, so I think we’ll hang onto some of it.

      1. Should change back to snow on the back end but I think the bulk of the accumulation is done once you changeover.

  54. As Mark alluded to and others, too, the sleet is moving in. Back Bay jumped from 29F to 31.7F in the past hour. I’m at 1.9 inches of snow. Still snowing, but lightly with pellets mixed in.

  55. I definitely underestimated down here we got a very nice small event & yes plowing was definitely needed . All rain now & I am in Marshfield & I would say it’s about the same amount around 3 maybe 3.5

  57. Snowing borderline HEAVY here now. I Hope this does NOT
    mean it is about to flip! Probably does, but it is snowing hard now.

      1. Hi Tim. And your area tends to be cooler than here. I never posted the comment made.

        We did switch to all sleet almost right away. We have an even 2.5 inches of snow

  62. Something is happening here. Vis lifted greatly. I still see some light snow falling. I suspect mixed with sleet, but I can’t tell for sure.

  63. I think I see what TK is talking about for Thursday night on some of the models…. showing some enhancement/lift over the area with a period of light/snow showers? Maybe a coating to an inch possible Thursday evening/night?

  66. Also noticing both the GFS and GGEM have trended COLDER for both events next week. Stronger blocking high to the north over eastern Canada introducing snow/mix/rain lines where previous runs have shown mostly rain….

  71. 26 degrees here in Sudbury and still snowing light to sometimes moderate. Guessing we have about 3-4 inches of snow. Radar seems to show that we won’t be getting any sleet or rain as that seems to be be staying south of us. But I guess it could change.

  75. I echo marks PUTRID. one grand is still out. She shoveled and cleared my car. Took a few sled runs and is now building a snowman. Oh to be seven again.

  76. I’d like to register a formal complaint with Mother Nature. You havd escalated from taking our snow the day after the storm to now taking it away DURING the storm.

    How RUDE

  80. well I am not surprised given this WInter so far!!

    After about 3 inches of snow, it has been raining for nearly
    2 1/2 hours! POURING at times. We have wasted at least 2 inches of snow and Likely MORE!!!

    What a Disgusting Putrid Crap Bag of a day!!)!(*#

    Now watch Friday’s system be a FISH storm! It would FIGURE for sure!!!

    Finally get some COLD in here with a system and BANG!!
    it flippen RAINS!!!! GIMMIE A BREAK)(!@#(*&)(!@*#)(*!)@(#*!)(@*#)(!*@#)(*!)(@#*!)(@*#*#&!(*$(*^$!@(*$&(*$&!(*&$*(!&*($^!*(&@$(*!&($*&!*($&@(*!&$(*&!(*$&@!*(&$(*!&*$&#$*(&$*(!&(*$@&(*&$*(!&*($@&!*(&$*(&$(*!&(*@$&(*@$&(*!&@$*(&!(*$@&*(!&$@(*&!*(&@(*&@$(*&!(*$@&(*$&*(&$*(!&($@*&!(*@&$*!&$*(&!(*$&(*!&$@*(!&(*$&!*$&!*(&(*&$*!($@(*!(*$&!(*@&$*(!&@$*(!*(@$&(*

    I have HAD IT!*(@#&*(&*(!@&#(*!@&(*#&!*(@#&*(!@

    Wake me up when it’s SPRING!

    1. Hey when I went out to clean up, it has already warmed to 33 and it was pouring, so I could have had 3.5, 3.6 inches easily. It looked like 3 when cleaning and I didn’t bother to measure. What’s the point??????????????????????

  82. Its 39F in eastern Marshfield, we are losing some snow quickly.

    Low/wave went north of Nantucket, S wind and its 48F !!

    Heavy rain fell on top of good snow, I think we’re somewhere btwn .5 and 1 inch melted. So glad the GFS showed no precip 48-60 hrs ago.

      1. I love how that guy Shaun communicates to the town on storms as that’s unusual , he sounds like a keeper for sure .

    1. That snow will be resistant to melt the next week though and not just sublimate the next time the sun came out or it got really cold.

    1. Same here and up to 31.3F now.

      Our 2″ of snow have compressed to 1-1.5″ of slop. Should be rock solid by tomorrow when all this freezes solid. Fortunately my son got out and shoveled off the driveway just before the snow changed to sleet so driveway is mainly just wet with some slush on it now.

  85. I was just outside shoveling. It’s 23 degrees and sleeting – a winter wonderland scene straight out the works of Norbert Rockwell, Norman’s evil twin.

    I don’t remember any maps predicting sleet as far NW as Lunenburg.

    2. Short range guidance, as good as it is, often has trouble with shallow warm layers. This is not really unusual.

      And to think just a few days ago the guidance was taking the system so far out to see it just wanted to give us a glance of light snow. 😉

  86. I’d like to request this crud stop now. At least I could sit out for a while before we lose all of the snow

    I’m also hearing that the driving is nasty.

  88. 12z EPS is good for 1-2″ Friday across CT/RI/SE MA.

    Perhaps we can nudge this a bit further north and get these areas into advisory level snows while also pushing the lighter accumulating snows further north. Still time…

  90. Is it true that after the next 7 days the remainder of the month will finish much warmer , if so let’s hope this upcoming cold can bring in some snow .

    1. Overall pattern briefly more dominated by milder Pacific Ocean air ……

      But I feel like there are signals today that a cold high could nudge in from SE Canada and make that very short lived in New England (1-2 days).

      We’ll know better come next weekend.

  95. Hey Vicki , I know you put my Boston snow # in but I just see year 2022 , I’m just curious as to what I had , thank you .

    1. That really is interesting and speaks to that this is all just a wave which induced some serious overrunning.

      I can see a mini low northeast of Nantucket because their wind went from S to WSW. So, Logan should have a NE wind, but it’s NW

      It’s like a cold front is now moving through after this wave passed by.

    1. Ssk. There are tabs at the top of this blog. If you tap on them, they will take you to contest and winter outlooks

  98. There’s some lagging echos down to Long Island and Logan just dropped to 32F.

    It would probably need to drop a few more degrees, which it might to get the pavements a bit icy.

    But, there may be an opportunity for a little frz rain drizzle next 1-2 hrs in some areas that have been > 32F.

    1. Getting ICY NOW. I just cleaned my car off and the Hood was frozen over. We are down to 31. Big rain drops falling and freezing.

  99. Eight years ago tonight we missed a storm big enough for TK to tell me most people didn’t know how big. We were celebrating Mac’s life at Stow Country Club. All week long TK kept us updated on the potential storm ….and he worked hard to keep it out to sea

    1. My goodness Vicki. 8 years ……. My mom’s going to be 13 years this summer.

      Well, I’m certainly glad we missed out on that particular storm so that celebration happened as planned !

  105. 3.6 inches here (3.5 snow, 0.1 sleet, but it all counts in the snow column officially). We’ve gotten a light to moderate glaze of freezing rain. No issues for trees & wires but definitely issues for untreated surfaces!

    The short range guidance did its job and did it well!

    This was a tricky situation in the atmosphere in which some of the guidance fails to see the shallow warm layer and misses the forecast initially. The short range picked up on it quickly yesterday, and that’s why it’s essential to utilize these tools when we get closer to an event.

    I hope this is yet another lesson everybody should pay attention to not to talk in absolutes a few days out from an event based on medium range global guidance. It’s come a long way and does a great job (most of the time, current issues aside), but it’s not infallible and should never be treated as anything more than a simulation. based on data input.

    I just got on from a very good cleanup (though it’ll be icy out there for a couple days now). I’ll take a look ahead at things in a bit…

    First, a coffee and a warm-up. 🙂

  106. Total here in Back Bay was 2.4 inches before the changeover. There wasn’t much sleet. It quickly changed to a cold rain.

  107. Quick thoughts…

    Today’s storm as noted behaved mostly as expected. One surprise was the northwest extent of the sleet / freezing rain, but I spoke to that above. Turned out to be a far different outcome than the OTS / graze scenarios some guidance had been advertising, which personally I never really bought into fully. I’ve seen these systems. They usually come closer than medium range guidance says. This one came even closer than I thought just 2 days ago. Looking at the snow reports – we had a general to 2 to 4 inch snowfall, with a few lower amounts South Coast. The potential higher amounts to the NW didn’t really came to be because of the further NW extent of the sleet / freezing rain.

    The late week threat is advertised as a pretty positive tilt trough and a non-major event. However there is a possibility that the assessment by medium range guidance is again somewhat off. Not saying we’re going to get nailed by that thing, but don’t be surprised if over the next 48+ hours the guidance changes its tune a little bit on that system.

    Coldest air of the season so far starts the weekend, regardless of what that storm does.

    A warm-up next week won’t turn out to be as “big” or as long lasting as some guidance has advertised. And the weather may get very interesting around here as early as January 24 at which time we may enter a battle zone that is with us for much of the latter portion of the month. I did already mention this on today’s update, so this is just a re-run really. Plenty of time to examine the pattern…

    1. Thanks TK.

      I posted last nights 18z NAM run above. I thought it did the best job nailing the NW extent of the sleet/frz rain.

      :re next week, noticing that high over Quebec is getting modeled stronger and stronger each run. I could easily see a snow/sleet/frz rain setup for those systems next week. The 18z GFS is basically showing just that.

      1. That’s weird. I can’t see the first few letters of your words on the left column Maybe my phone problem

      1. Yes, but it’s not to be a major event of any kind. Just some “sneaky” snow that may occur.

    1. Quite possible. I went out about 4:30 to scrape the driveway again and it was brutal. Windblown sleet, 23 degrees, the driveway has a thin layer of frozen slush, and all the trees/branches are ensconced in ice. Any surface not treated with salt tonight is going to be treacherous.

  111. I just salted the driveway really good . I thought I was back to work tomorrow but that changed so at least I don’t need to deal with tricky driving conditions at 5am . If you have salt put it down tonight or you will wish that you had .

    2. Wise. It’s a skating rink out there.

      I sat on deck with a fire for a while. Very little wind but what there was had the trees creaking but not swaying as much as normal. They are frozen solid.

  113. Euro Weeklies and CFS still in support of my long range forecast. There may be a few things that are a little off the timing, as in it may end up a little more stormy into the beginning of February, but I still think the trend will be to turn drier as we head later and later into winter.

    But I’m becoming more convinced that the warm up next week is going to be very short-lived.

  115. A very light frz mist in eastern Marshfield, now in Pembroke and its snizzle.

    Great job by crews on the main road, 139, it has a ton of salt but the side lots, can see the thinnest coating. It’s so thin, but slippery.

  122. Some of the guidance is gradually evolving from what was borderline anticyclonic flow at 500 mb when that Friday night system was going by to a more cyclonic look on the front side of an elongated closed low.

    Do not count that system out for producing some significant snow for at least a portion of the region.

    1. The pattern transition is a slow one. A little further east on that storm and we’d have had one. The events on Thursday and Friday will both be all snow where they occur. And the magnitude doesn’t matter. All snow is all snow whether it’s a feature dusting or a blockbuster, or anything in between. 🙂

      Oh yeah, yesterday’s event was all snow for some folks, well N &W. 🙂 Sometimes it’s all about location. 🙂

  125. Coldest morning of the winter so far at 15 degrees. Looks icy out there but school is not delayed here.

Comments are closed.