Friday January 19 2024 Forecast (7:17AM)

111 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 19-23)

A storm passing by to our south today keeps us overcast and tries to throw its shield of snow across the region, but dry air wins to keep it minimal, and resultant accumulation minimal as well. The exception will be the MA South Shore and Cape Cod which gets higher amounts due to ocean enhancement – a result of a cold north northeast wind off the relatively warm Atlantic waters. This comes to an end tonight and the coldest air of the season is ours for the weekend. Saturday will feature lots of clouds, and Sunday lots of sun. A gusty breeze will make it feel even colder both days. In addition, a weak disturbance coming through Saturday evening will bring the chance of a few light snow showers and only a tiny risk of a slightly heavier one. High pressure shifts to the south and allows for a temperature moderation with fair weather Monday. But Tuesday, a cold front drops down from the north, and while it may be “mild” to start, it turns colder later, and at the same time moisture from the west will start to increase the cloud cover. Snow may arrive as warmer air aloft makes an approach by late Tuesday.

TODAY: Cloudy. Periods of light snow midday on especially I-95 east and I-90 south, but accumulations generally under 1 inch except 1-3 inches with locally heavier from MA South Shore to Cape Cod. Highs 24-31. Wind NE-N 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Snow lingers early with small additional accumulation possible MA South Shore / Cape Cod, otherwise cloudy. Lows 11-18. Wind N 5-15 MPH. Wind chill below 10.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 18-25. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill as low as 10.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of a snow shower evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 6-13. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill near to below 0.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 25-32. Wind NW 5-15 MPH. Wind chill near to below 20.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 12-19. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 32-39. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 22-29. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of snow at night. Highs 33-40 by midday, then turning colder. Wind shifting to NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 24-28)

A battle-zone between mild to the south and Canadian cold, adding in moisture from a Pacific jet stream, produces unsettled weather through mid period. Temperature and precipitation details to be determined. Fair, cold weather for the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 29 – FEBRUARY 2)

Indication is for seasonable cold as the average but somewhat variable temperatures with 1 or 2 additional systems potentially bringing precipitation to the region.

111 thoughts on “Friday January 19 2024 Forecast (7:17AM)”

  1. Current updated idea. I think about the maximum we can see for snowfall out of this is 4 inches or so in coastal (to just inland) Plymouth County. The duration is not long enough to get above that. This is something I wasn’t sure of yesterday. Inland I chopped back slightly due to overwhelming dry air – something I also wasn’t 100% sure of yesterday. We’re only talking about a 0.05 to 0.10 inch precipitation difference making a 1 to 2 inch difference in the snowfall amounts. This is what comes of high snow to water ratio. It’s not just always 10 to 1, and this has to be taken into account as well.

  2. The storm passing to our south is over-performing just like the last one. Colleague in DC area has 4 inches of snow and the storm is only about 1/2 way done. Heading for 7 or 8 inches and the forecast was for 3-5 for that area.

    Difference between today and the last time: This system is not moving NE but straight E. It doesn’t have the chance to overperform up here. Again, this is another good example of why we can only talk in possibles and not absolutes when a system is a few to several days away. You may recall at some point in the past there was guidance that had this as a major snowstorm for pretty much all of SNE. And sure, a different upper set-up, it would very well have been that. But this is not the set-up that draws it up. So the “biggest” snow simply comes from areas that see ocean enhancement from this, while little or snow from the actual “storm” falls on the region.

  3. A few days ago (I think) you mentioned that things start getting interesting here around the 24th….is that what you’re eluding to in your Tuesday night into Days 6-10 write-up?

  5. Good morning and thank you TK.

    ocean temp at Boston Buoy down to 42.8. It’s only January 19th. What took you so long??????

    1. So far the wind at Logan is DUE NORTH, not even the slightest
      Easterly component. Will be watching that wind direction.

      Down around Marshfield it is NNE and NE at P-town.

  9. Logan now has a slight Easterly component to the wind, but very light, so I don’t expect any action any time soon. 🙂

  10. I can see the different layers of clouds. On the higher deck level, I can even see what looks like the cloud edge on the northwest horizon.

    Many more lower clouds are appearing and moving NE to SW

    No flurries or light snow at this point.

  12. Logan wind now NNE at 10 mph.
    I suppose some flurries or snow showers “could” appear at anytime???? We shall see.

    1. So far no snow streamers are appearing on radar.
      However, I do see the faintest of echoes moving in from the ocean down around Tom’s area.

      1. There are …… if you fix your stare against a dark backdrop for a few minutes …. a couple tiny snow flakes/snow grains starting to fall.

        I think I have a slight headache now from looking that hard

        🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

    1. I can readily see that. Sure looks like the ocean clouds are LOOMING out there and on the move towards shore.

      We shall see. 🙂

      Thank you

    2. Either the models are mostly underplaying the ocean effect
      and we get something OR they have it nailed and we get nothing.

      Time will tell. 🙂

  21. So far Logan’s wind is NOT very conducive to ocean effect snow.
    Mostly North with a slight Easterly component. I think we need
    more Easterly involved. We shall see.

    However projected 12Z NAM 925 mb winds for NOON
    are very nice. Is it enough to do anything? Perhaps NOT strong enough?

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=925th&rh=2024011912&fh=6&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    850 mb winds, not so great

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=850th&rh=2024011912&fh=6&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    1. Hilarious!!!!! Love it!
      You made my day with that one! 🙂 🙂 🙂

      flizzard! That one will go down in the history of WHW!!!

  24. Yes, I am also of the opinion that even the ocean effect might be aimed for Cape Cod.

    Feel like a new OE band is developing on radar and its definitely aimed at the bridges.

    Plus, the NE wind is now only happening on Cape Cod.

  25. Assuming the GFS is correct, which is a perilous assumption …..

    Lots of high pressure areas repeatedly moving off of Hudson Bay and northeast of New England.

    That’s going to keep the lower layers of the column chilly. Probably noses of mild air at mid and upper levels on occasion. Snow/mix opportunities may rinse and repeat after a couple day thaw.

  26. On my 6 mile run today, I observed the beautiful tranquility of a winter’s day with a storm too far away to have any impact.

    The Esplanade lagoon is now mostly frozen, though it’s a very thin layer. The Charles river in the heart of Boston adjacent to the Esplanade Park is only 10% to 20% frozen. I don’t think there will be a whole lot more accretion this weekend. Perhaps an increase to 25% to 30% before the thaw. Several reasons for this: 1. When the cold arrived there was considerable wind (hard to freeze consistently when there’s wind); 2. The cold hasn’t been harsh (only 2 nights that reached the upper teens) by any stretch of the imagination; 3. The sun angle is beginning to have an effect on ice accretion. Ideal circumstances for ice accretion are sustained cold in the six week period between December 4th and January 15th. After that it gets increasingly harder over large and fairly deep bodies of water like the Charles in downtown Boston. Even last February’s brief deep freeze didn’t do the trick: 1. Too brief; 2. February.

    Could it still happen this year? Yes. But the long-range forecast doesn’t look promising, as it doesn’t look cold enough (won’t even get to the teens at night and during the day above freezing) and it’ll have to build back up as all the ice you see now on the river in Boston will be gone by the end of next week (Esplanade lagoon is a different story, as there will be some remnants of ice).

    1. Given the fact that during practically all winters (except the last 2) that I’ve lived here the Charles river has frozen over solid in downtown Boston (and often with a thick layer of ice) is that we’ve been missing the cold in December and early to mid January).

    2. They’ll add a fair amount of ice this weekend, and the thaw is not really going to be much of a thaw – just near to above normal for a handful of days with 2 cold shots interrupting that, then a tendency for more cold heading into February.

  27. Lost power here last night. I reported the outage at 9:05 PM.
    Power was restored at 10:05 PM.

    As much as I complain about Eversource, they were all over this outage. It was a decent chunk of JP that was out. I couldn’t see any lights in any direction, until I went up in the attic and I could see some lights on Jamaica Towers, about a mile away. Really good sized outage.

  28. Wow it’s not even snowing here at all !! I can’t believe it swing & miss .you should have seen all the plows lined up when I was leaving the city an hour ago & not one will be needed . I’m disappointed as I was hoping for even a solid heavy coating , don’t see that . With the projected warm up next week not sure Boston will be above in snow for the month .

    1. NOT surprised in the slightest. WHY were plows lined up in the CIty. Last night the mets basically said NO SNOW in Boston other than perhaps a few flakes, Does that warrant snow plows?
      Someone is messed up or getting MISINFORMATION!

      2. Yes I was surprised to see them old salty as Boston was not to see much at all . Down here on the south shore I think it looked pretty solid for a couple to a few inches & far Plymouth & cape a tad more . We got flurries. Wasted cold air !!! Last full week of January next week .

  29. I am curious as to why the Patriots are not starting to interview for offensive coaches. Instead they are bringing in outside defensive coaches for interviews. Of all the parts that need work defense was not one of them. Should keep steve and make him DC. Don’t try to change everything all at once. Fix the offense then if need be work on the defense later. Not really liking what I am seeing so far. At least Matt Groh might be leaving to go to Atlanta which is a good thing.

    1. Totally agree, Matt. 100% It’s as if BB is still in the building. The problem ain’t defense. It’s offense. And when you’re the worst in the league and have absolutely no talent on that side of the ball, you need to actually overhaul your strategy.

      BB is past his prime. No doubt. Robert Kraft is also past his prime.

    2. Agree 100% as defense is solid . They need to wake up & pickup a new offense. Myself I would love Josh back as OC but I think by the end of the weekend BB will be hired as the Atlanta head coach & Josh will go with him . BB is heading into his 3rd interview this weekend .

  30. While we get a warm-up in SNE next week and it may last a while (we’ll have to wait and see, as TK has warned) I think there will be a battleground setting up shop in NNE, where I think just enough cold air is in place to have snow for the mountains and little or no melting.

    One thing I do NOT want to hear mets on Boston TV say is that next week is the January thaw. No, it is not. When only 1 week out of 4.5 in the month of January is cold, then we don’t say there’s a January thaw.

    1. It’s really not going to warm up that much.

      What’s going on is the gradual transition I’ve been talking about for weeks.

      And it’s an unsteady transition. You get cold, you get some winter weather. You get a break. Etc.

  31. Don’t be fooled by the “above normal” on the CPC maps. Those are not levels of departure. They are % chances. (Many don’t know that.) The thing is, the above normal is only going to be slightly above, which at this time of year is not warm. Petey B. talked about this last night on his weathercasts and he’s 100% right. People have a way of interpreting warm colors on a map, and sometimes it’s not quite what it looks like.

    Yes, we lose the below normal of this week and this weekend for a few days next week, but it’s not a big warm up, nor is it a lasting one.

    Ponds, lakes, rivers will be gaining ice in the days/weeks ahead much more than they lose it.

        1. Ok so are you telling me there is still a shot of accumulation down here at almost 4pm from ocean enhancement

  32. In the words of the Great Gonzo (from Muppet Christmas Carol): “Missed…” 🙂

    The last event overproduced in the Southeast & Mid Atlantic, as well as parts of the Northeast.

    This event is overproducing in the Mid Atlantic, and pretty much non-existent here in the Northeast.

    That’s weather for you, ladies & gents. 🙂

    Pattern looks interesting ahead. Lots to talk about!

  33. TK Great Tease with the last line pattern looks interesting ahead.
    NY as of 1pm recorded 0.1 inches of snow.
    Standings
    BOS 7.6
    NY 2.0

  34. Sports Illustrated is no longer. I’m saddened by the news. Sports journalism in general hasn’t fared well in the age of the internet. Sure, there are plenty of stories and online outlets, but they’re almost always reactive, sensationalist and almost soap opera like. Most are not reflective pieces about the sports the journalists are covering. In fact, I’d argue that many are not even sports-focused at all (rather it’s the soap opera element that engages viewers and listeners, I guess).

    Boston had an excellent core group of writers during the 1970s. The Boston Globe was second to none, in my opinion. The decline of good writing is obvious

    Sports Illustrated also had an outstanding set of writers. My earliest memory of the magazine was from when I was 6 and Tony Conigliaro was on the cover with a black eye: https://www.si.com/.image/c_limit%2Ccs_srgb%2Cq_auto:good%2Cw_590/MTY4MjYxODExNzczOTczNjY5/tony-conigliaro.webp

  35. I know we are a little more than 1/2 way through meteorological Winter an nearly 1 month into Astronomical Winter, but
    so far this Winter has been a JOKE!!

    AND YES, I REMEMBER 2015. 🙂

    So, we shall see what the interesting pattern ahead has in store for us. 🙂 I hope it has MUCH in store and NOT more teases.

      1. January is not over. And I said the pattern transition is gradual and unsteady. It doesn’t just suddenly start snowing everywhere.

        Ironically, I’m running above average for January snow by 2 inches. 🙂

      2. We still have the rest of January, which is NOT shut-out. All of February. All of March.

        Don’t fall into the trap of verifying a winter that still has 2/3 of itself left. 😉

    2. It’s been weird, to be sure. After a very mild first month of winter across much of the Lower 48 the serious cold air intrusion into the heartland was no joke, just as the nearly constant one in Scandinavia and Russia. But here it hasn’t even been ho-hum. We’ve had several nice wintry days (I’ll take anything at this point). But the theme has been relatively mild, a few absolute soakers and some blah weather thrown in.

      1. There was also a severe cold wave in the southern hemisphere in November (their late spring). I never saw any headlines/stories about it.

    3. My snowblower broke during the first storm and I have zero plans to get it fixed. Call me crazy (or call me maybe), but that’s how much confidence I have in the rest of this winter producing very little snow.

      1. That is a very risky assumption to make on January 19th.

        I wish you luck because you’re going to need it. 🙂

  37. I am forecasting 12-13 F tonight’s low in Swampscott. Of course, I have missed this call the last 3 nights.

    2. We were 11 for a low two nights ago. Last night we hit 21. My thought was maybe cloud cover last night kept us a bit warmer I don’t see stars but there is a haze over moon so I’m guessing 15 here tonight.

      Thanks longshot. This is fun

  38. MJO has been the enemy of the snow lover quite often recently.

    It’s going to become the ally, but not for about 7 to 10 more days.

  39. Well, there are the ocean effect snow bands, but about 30 miles further south than the focus was expected to be.

    Event, yes. Location, not quite (only half right because they were expected to be where they are too, just also expected to be further north . That part is a miss by the short range guidance.

  41. NY inching there way up the standings. I believe the 2.3 inches NY currently has was all the snow they got last winter.

      1. Eric fiser just tweeted winter is over nao is going positive along with the ao. He says this cold stretch will prob be the coldest stretch of the winter‍♂️

            1. Yes. The discussion is interesting He thought maybe a shot as Jan turns to feb. But maybe this is coldest?

            2. He was of course careful to say it can still snow without arctic air. I wonder where we have heard that before 😉

    2. You do realize that near to above normal temperatures in January are often snowier than below normal temperatures. I’ve been over this so many times over the last 14 years on this blog. 🙂

  44. I wouldn’t take that Wednesday forecast literally.

    But, while most of the US has a mild week, the northeast is probably going to have the mild air cut off mid week by cold high pressure passing to our north.

  45. Overrunning snow/mix event showing up on multiple models for later Tuesday/Tuesday night and noted in Pete Bs tweet above.

    Brief warmup later in the week and then both the GFS and CMC with a winter storm threat later next weekend. GFS then follows it up with a bomb on the east coast early the following week.

    Could be a very active pattern ahead!

    2. Projected low temp for Boston next Friday & Saturday nights into the lower 40s with rain as of now but who knows

  46. We arrived here in Sunday River around 8pm. Deep snowpack and frigid air up here with temps down in the single digits and a biting wind. I am throwing every layer on I have when we head out in the morning!

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