Saturday January 20 2024 Forecast (8:42AM)

131 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 20-24)

A “used” Arctic airmass gives us a cold weekend. This air is indirect in its delivery, having modified after freezing areas to our west over the last several days, so we do not get the brunt of that, but a lesser version. Nevertheless, it’ll be our coldest daytime of the season so far today, with clouds dominant as a weak trough of low pressure crosses the region. A weak surface boundary will help wring out some snow showers this afternoon and evening that can coat the ground easily if they come down heavy enough or long enough. A gusty breeze will contribute to a stinging wind chill. Sunday, we see more sun and a very slight temperature moderation as a weak ridge of high pressure moves into the region. High pressure sinks to the south of our region Monday allowing temperatures to return to seasonable, or even a slight bit above normal with continued fair weather. This “milder” air holds into Tuesday, but don’t expect it to be a warm day. This is only a slightly warmer than normal air mass flowing over an icy snow cover in much of the region and is comparable to moving from your freezer to your refrigerator. And even the modest warm-up will be somewhat short-lived. Not that we’re going back to the levels of this weekend, but cold high pressure in eastern Canada will send a front down from the north later Tuesday, with colder air arriving. At the same time, Pacific moisture, having made a cross-country trek, will arrive Tuesday night, just in time to wring out some snow across the region. The boundary that moved through late Tuesday does try to come back as a warm front by Wednesday, but may have difficulty doing so. For now I’d lean toward a cloud-dominated, near to above normal temperature day Wednesday, with the potential for a fairly wide temperature contrast from north to south. However, there are a few more days to work out the intricate details there.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Late-day snow showers. Highs 18-25. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill as low as 10.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy early with lingering snow showers mainly I-95 & I-90 regions east and south. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows 6-13. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill near to below 0.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 24-31. Wind NW 5-15 MPH. Wind chill near to below 20.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 12-19. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 32-39. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 22-29. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 33-40 by midday, then turning colder. Wind shifting to NE 5-15 MPH, then diminishing.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Snow likely. Lows 23-30. Wind NE under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Chance mix/rain at night. Highs 35-42 north, 43-50 south. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 25-29)

One more push of mild air combined with a disturbance brings a rain chance to the region to start the period, but if cold air remains locked in at the surface, some icy conditions cannot be ruled out in some areas to the north. Colder air wins out and look for a potential weekend (January 27-28) winter weather event, followed by a drier, colder end to the period, based on current expected timing in the medium range.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 30 – FEBRUARY 3)

Another winter weather threat around mid period. Temperatures variable, probably slightly above normal for the period.

131 thoughts on “Saturday January 20 2024 Forecast (8:42AM)”

      1. I can’t recall what you guessed. I think I guessed 15. We were 13 at 5 also and at some point dropped one more degree

  7. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Made it to 14 here this morni g for coldest of the season But nothing unusual for this tome of year.

    I wish the gfs could be trusted. 6z shows Monster snowstorm near the end of the month As depicted, crippling! fat chancex of that. We’ll see what the12z says. last nights canadian and euro were not quite in range.

    Something to look forward to later this AM.

      1. Not so! It is perfectly normal for January. For my location it is probably about 6 degrees below Average, not 10.
        it is simply not unusual at all.

    2. Even if it could be trusted, that far out it would be unreliable for sensible weather detail just the same.

      The MJO heads into favorable territory late this month. We’ve been missing that piece.

  8. For those of us addicted to winter – and I count myself as an addict – I often look for webcams that depict winter as I’d like it to be. Earlier this month I posted the bus stop in Norlisk, Siberia (not a place I’d want to live for many reasons, but they definitely have winter). Today, I’m posting a place I would consider living or at least staying for a while: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tVZd67U-pTk

  9. Approx. 1040 mb high pressure in eastern Canada early next week and at upper levels a fairly flat ridge with its axis to our west.

    That is not a signal for a significant warm-up. Sorry. 🙂

    It’s a modest warm up, in a relative sense. When you’re coming off temperatures 10 to 18 degrees below normal today, and 5 to 12 degrees below normal tomorrow, a modest warm up gets you back to near or slightly above normal with the upcoming pattern.

    The interpretation of the CPC 6-10 / 8-14 day temperature maps is off by the general public. When those get posted on social media or even mainstream media, if they are not accompanied by explanation or people don’t read the keys, they are often misunderstood. They are being interpreted as the darker the red, the warmer the air. That’s not correct. Those maps depict the probability of above normal (or below normal) temperatures during the course of the entire period. So while you may see a nice dark red splotch indicating a 60% chance of above normal temperatures in that zone during the 6-10 day period, the temperature during that period may only end up very slightly above normal, and after about 6 million mentions here, I know everybody on this blog knows that you can most definitely have wintry precipitation (including snow, yes, snow) with temperatures above normal in winter.

    Sadly, there are many people out there who don’t know that yet. Spread the word. 🙂

    1. I understand these maps until I think about them. It seems that in 14 days there’s a good chance of being both above and below normal. How do the colors work then?

      1. In the 10-14 issued yesterday, lower % above, or “leaning above”, as opposed to “likely above”. Don’t read too much into them. 🙂 They’re just general outlooks. They go into more detail on their discussions. Most people never see those. 🙂

  10. Storm Isha is about to bring the hammer down on the British Isles and low countries. This is a powerful Atlantic low, which will drive out the cold in that region and bring in the usual wet and windy weather. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_k-ldBvPYJY

    Nothing unusual about these storms. I experienced many dozens of them during fall and winter when I lived over there. If anything, they define late fall and winter over there, much more than snow (infrequent and in small amounts) and cold (infrequent and not harsh).

    1. They’re in the train tracks there. 🙂

      My friend in Scotland is getting ready for a good one.

  11. TK pointed to the relative cold in the Southern Hemisphere in recent months. Indeed, this has been the case. And it hasn’t just been during their spring. Summer has been on the cool side in many parts as well. I think we’re all accustomed to watching the Australian Open (tennis) in sweltering heat. Well, it’s been far from it this year. Certainly more pleasant for the players.

  14. Jimmy B May well be finished the half marathon in Charleston by now. It was 30 at race start and up to 37 now. Brrrrrrrr

  15. My pet Weather peeve, Normal vs Average

    I cringe when a met say normal high is 36 or 37 so when the high is 26 they say it was 10 degrees below normal! Simply NOT so! Not not not
    10 degrees below average to be certain, but below normal, no.

    For example in mid January it is perfectly normal around here
    to have a high of 26 or 27 and it may be 10 degrees below
    average, but it is still perfectly normal for the time of year.

    normal
    1 of 2
    adjective
    nor·​mal ˈnȯr-məl
    Synonyms of normal
    1
    a
    : conforming to a type, standard, or regular pattern : characterized by that which is considered usual, typical, or routine
    normal working hours
    under normal circumstances
    It was just a normal, average day.
    He had a normal childhood.
    Their reaction to the news was normal and expected.
    The noise made it impossible to carry on a normal conversation.
    Challenges are a normal part of life; remind yourself of that—and keep going.—
    Gabrielle Gayagoy

    average
    2 of 3
    adjective
    1
    : equaling an arithmetic mean
    2
    a
    : being about midway between extremes

    Consider me cranky today if you must. 🙂 🙂 🙂

    1. In weather, the word “normal” has become synonymous with “long term average”.

      What I do NOT like is when somebody says “today’s high is supposed to be XX”. That’s way off the actual meaning of averages or normals. I hear that and I cringe.

    2. I absolutely agree. My perhaps even larger pet peeve is using 30 yeats to determine average rather than every number. Those 30 are global warming years so don’t come close to showing an accurate picture…..unless of course one wants to pretend we are not warming.

  20. I’m looking forward to Wednesday.

    The snow chance, yeah, ok.

    What has my interest is the heavy, dense, low lying cold air you can definitely see wedging down into Maine and eastern NH

    I’m thinking the models are underestimating how far southwest some of that very thin layer of cold air makes it.

    1. Totally agree. At least inland, could be some serious icing.
      We’ll have to wait and see how it plays out.

        1. Agreed.

          My wife has a friend who builds a decent size ice rink in his back yard and I’m pretty sure he likes cold but not necessarily snowy weather. 🙂

    1. That same guy always comments to say we have North Carolina winters. We do NOT have NC winters. I’m glad Eric corrected him … again …but he’ll just keep saying it. 🙂

  24. Snow/ice scenario definitely on the table in the Tuesday night / Wednesday morning time frame.

    I’m also not sure the warm air ever really gets in here at the surface. It warms up aloft heading into and through midweek, but we know what happens when those highs sit in eastern Canada. The guidance almost always underestimates the surface cold initially, and then adjust for it later.

    WxWatcher mentioned “icing” in one of his comments and I completely agree. While it’s obviously too soon to pinpoint specific events and locations of impact, both snow and ice are very much on the list of potentials as we head through the next week.

    I am watching a storm signal for about 1 week from today, and that one would probably have deeper cold to work with.

    Also keep in mind that, regarding my winter outlook, we’re heading into the time of the season where I was unsure of what impact we may see from HTE. Again we won’t know for sure how much and what until further study is done. For now, I’d emphasize that a transition to a colder/drier pattern in February may be just as gradual as the shift out of the warm, snowless December pattern has been to one that is somewhat colder and produces more snow chances through January.

    Yes, I realize it’s not been a gangbusters snow month, but that isn’t what I was looking for. Back in November, I hinted at near to above normal for the month for the region in general. Some areas of SNE are near to above, others are below. We also have 1/3 of the month left, and some chance to add to the totals before midweek. And we can’t pinpoint sensible weather out beyond mid to late week, so what comes after that? We’ll see. But the pattern says don’t count out Boston reaching their average January snowfall or even exceeding it, before midnight on the 31st.

    As a reminder, my Boston forecast range for snowfall for the winter was 35-45, with the current long term average at 49, so this would be a little below normal for the city, but certainly higher than last year, which we’re already well on our way to exceeding. It won’t take much, and they’ll exceed it easily.

    And yes I went below for temps & precip/snow for February, with reasoning explained, and also left that wildcard HTE on the table. And again, this may be an extreme example, but February 1978 was cold and dry most of the month, yet Boston’s snowfall was double the average – from one storm. 🙂 All it takes is one renegade storm in a briefly anomalous pattern and … So even my 2024 forecast of below normal snow in the city can get blown out of the water in the blink of an eye.

  25. I like linguistics, so I’m happy to see it as a topic in today’s WHW blog.

    JP Dave is correct. Normal and average are different words, with different meanings. And expressions like “new normal” are annoyingly vague and overused.

    This got me thinking about the lingo in today’s world. I happen to work in healthcare and the hyperbole about new medicines can be a bit much: “Game-changer,” “paradigm shift,” and “inflection point” get bandied about way too often. So much so that the terms have lost their meaning. Just take a look at pharmaceutical companies’ press releases. I’d say that at least half of the newly marketed meds are, according to the drug companies, one or more of the terms listed above. Well, if that was truly the case, we’d all be living a lot longer in perfect bliss. Needless to say, most newly approved drugs are far from being any of the terms listed above.

    This is not a criticism of the drug industry or their products. Also, I completely understand how innovation occurs: Incrementally almost all of the time, and not by way of radical breakthroughs. But it is an indictment of the overly sensationalist marketing campaigns these days.

    I’ve been trying to publish an article on this theme, but have thus far been shot down by my editors. It could damage advertisement revenue. This tells you all you need to know about the powers of capitalism – a system I definitely endorse over any other system, by the way – to curb the ability to say what one wants to say. We’re limited. There is no such thing as freedom of expression, unless we restrict it to standing in, say, the Boston Common, and yelling about whatever cause it is you believe in. But de facto free speech, in our everyday professional existence, doesn’t exist.

    2. That was EPIC Joshua 🙂

      As a mathematician, I find many phrases to cringe at, including “inflection point” and lots of things having to do with “exponential.” A single number can’t be exponential and the rate of change of numbers can’t be exponential.

      How about “Well, half the people you meet have a below average IQ?”

      Hey you kids, get off my lawn!

    3. Really well said And keep on submitting. It is horrifically sad that you are shut down to keep folks from the truth.

  27. To Joshua,

    The Christopher Roma news is sad and he was an experienced climber. The same is true of Kate Montrosova, also a very experienced climber who had conquered the likes of Kilimanjaro.

    https://www.outdoors.org/resources/amc-outdoors/history/too-cold-the-death-of-kate-matrosova/

    No matter how good you are, you must be brilliant about every climb you make. I give as much respect to Mount Major (1,800 ft) as I do to Mount Washington (6,300 ft).

    Both deaths were tragic and maybe avoidable. All we can do is hope others will respect both as climbers and learn from their mistakes.

  30. 1040+ mb high in eastern Canada near the Maine border Tuesday night. That’s conducive to a significant warm-up … NOT! 😉

  31. Cold wave has now killed nearly 70 people in the US this week and the number will climb, unfortunately.

    Friend of mine in Athens GA (home of the B 52-‘s) hasn’t left home in a week, can’t drive on ice covered untreated roads, and obviously mail delivery has been halted for 6 days running now.

    It was only a matter of time before the cold that’s been hanging out since late autumn on the other side of the NHEM found its way onto this side of it. We’re kind of lucky it was not directed right at New England, because this was no glancing shot like the one we had last February.

    Expect to see more of this heading into late winter too.

        1. very different, but both good. For me, I give a rather substantial edge to REM, but that is more due to my musical taste than they are actually better then the B-52s. 🙂 🙂 🙂

  32. Some of the negative temperature anomalies are a staggering -40 to -45F in the Upper Midwest today.

    In about 8 to 10 days, some guidance is predicting anomalies of up to -35F over the border in eastern Canada. Brr.

  34. To Joshua’s point above, I was out running some errands and drove by Jamaica Pond which is right down the street from me,
    ZERO ice from shore to shore! NOTHING!!!!

    Unbelievable for January 20th!!!!! Sadly tis true.

    Btw was out with a sweater and light jacket walking about and was perfectly comfortable. It is cold, but it is not COLD if you get my drift. 🙂 🙂

  36. Relatively little ice accretion in these parts, too, JPD. Certainly the shallow Esplanade lagoon now has a nice layer of ice, but it’s way too thin to skate on. The river has maybe 20% coverage right now between the Mass. Ave. and Longfellow bridges. I’ll keep you all posted on developments. Just don’t call me the iceman (George Gervin’s nickname).

    1. There is thin ice on our ponds from edge to maybe 10-15 feet out.

      All grassy areas are covered in frozen snow. It’s frustrating me. I can’t get to my bird feeders and the battery on the ring camera in the tree need changing. It’s thick enough that even the older kids are not breaking through

  38. 1. Red Sox raised ticket prices. They were already very high and mostly unaffordable in my view. I believe they’re now the highest in baseball. For concessions you kind of have to bring a wheelbarrow filled with money, figuratively speaking, sort of like Germany in 1923.

    2. Red Sox are lowering payroll even further. They’ve openly pledged this now. They have the chutzpah to call themselves a “mid market” team.

    3. While I will always be a Red Sox loyalist and fan, I won’t (and can’t – it’s not within my budget) go to games anymore. To put in Trumpian terms: Sad.

    1. I was talking yesterday with somebody at work and we were saying it is expensive to go to a professional sporting event in the northeast. They are shutting out the middle class. Your ticket, pay to park, and food your looking by the time all is said and done a mortgage payment.

    1. I see it on Radar. Looks to head in here shortly. I am waiting.

      So what’s your guess. 3-6 inches? 🙂 🙂 🙂

      Ummm I meant 3-6 tenths of millimeters!

    3. Interesting that the NAM and 3KM NAM had this snow, yet the Hi-Res HRRR swung and missed and did NOT have it in the slightest!

  41. I like non_Weather posts, especially music and sports. 🙂

    BUT, I am sorry to say that both iinks point to the same
    interview. 🙂

  45. MJO…

    Currently in phase 5.
    Should be in phase 6 by Monday.
    Should be in phase 7 by the following Sunday.

    1. The radar trend is interesting. It seems to be blossoming in place … This scenario was shown on no short range guidance whatsoever.

      Well, it’s safe to say Boston will end up with more snow out of this practically non-existent trough than it will from yesterday’s “storm”. 🙂

      1. Exactly!!!
        Boston will ADD to the season and month total.
        At least 1/10 inch Perhaps as much as 1/4 inch.
        Pretty cool!

    1. Wow. That is surprising. Maybe cause snow melted in road for a bit and then froze. But assuming you were on pike, I’d think traffic might have kept road snow free.

      And what was that fogelberg song this reminds me of?

  52. It was pretty snowy driving home from Randolph an hour ago . Snow starting to pickup here on the South Shore

  54. Feather dusting here.

    Found watching the 2 or 3 narrow snow bands quite interesting. I don’t remember who, Taunton or Norwood, but someone was briefly down to 0.5 miles in snow.

  56. @Vicki – it was quite the half marathon in Charleston. What a beautiful area of our country. I am staying on Isle of Palms – the wind chill has been in the 20s most of day and they have a wind chill advisory for window digit wind chills. It’s very strange to surrounded by Palm trees when it is that cold – that shouldn’t be allowed. Some cold weather tidbits from this area – the coldest temp ever in Charleston was 10 degrees on Jan 21, 1985 – will get down to 20 tonight but wind chill will be 8 thus the advisory. Coldest temp ever in SC was in Mt. Pleasant? – 19 below zero. The Cooper River Bridge is the nicest bridge I have ever been on – what a view. Glad I am missing the real cold in NE. And I am not optimistic about snow chances next week – at least along the south coast.

      1. Not sure if you will stay another night. My daughter said oh man she I told her you are on isle of palms. She’s quickly sending a couple of other restaurants. And a location to see dolphins

    2. Oh wow. I have goosebumps but not from cold. How did you do? It is a lovely part of the country. I’m so happy you are enjoying it.

      And my kids stay on Isle of palms. It’s lovely. My in laws lived in snee farm in my pleasant.

      Did you see list of restaurants my daughter shared. Might be too late now.

      I hope you have a few more days. Enjoy.

    3. Hoping you see this, Jimmy B. Daughter just sent this.

      Restaurants
      The boathouse – IOP
      Sea biscuit- IOP
      Islander 71- IOP
      Coastal crust – wild dunes
      Mex 1 cantina – Sullivans island
      Home team bbq – Sullivans island

      Fun
      There’s a little shop called the outpost next to islander 71, super cute, they have good breakfast and lunch! You can see the dolphins at the breach inlet, under the bridge that connects isle of palms and Sullivans island. The parking on the isle of palms side might be closed, you can park on the Sullivans island side but it’s not as easy to see the dolphins, as close to the bridge as possible is your best chance!

        1. Oh nice Vicki – I will be here until early Monday and will check that out for breakfast tomorrow- boathouse closed for season. I am currently at the windjammer

          Fighting off a respiratory bug (no surprise as COVID is all
          Over the place) – so I struggled today – but finished in 2:07. Really nice course – best part was running through Citadel campus and along the river

          2. I’m so sorry you are not feeling well. Excellent time. Especially for not feeling well.

            The citadel campus is spectacular.

            Enjoy and I hope you feel better.

  58. Well, obviously the atmosphere was in the mood to snow tonight.

    I’ve had flakes for hours and for a good part of the time the moon and the stars have been visible.

    1. I can’t see stars. The clouds are just thick enough to hide them. But I did see the moon trying to peak through

  59. Still snowing very lightly here. Nearly 6 hours of SNOW! Only about an inch at best. the salters have been out.

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