Monday January 22 2024 Forecast (7:42AM)

94 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 22-26)

High pressure drifts to our south today, with fair weather and a temperature moderation putting many areas above freezing for highs. A cold front will drop down from the north Tuesday, but this front doesn’t deliver air as cold as the last bout we went through. It does help set up a period of snow for much of the region Tuesday night as a disturbance ripples along the frontal boundary from west to east. This frontal boundary will be hanging around our region then from mid to late week with more unsettled weather. Additional areas of low pressure bring rain chances later Wednesday into Thursday, and again later Thursday into Friday, based on current timing. There’s still some question as to how much warming will take place at the surface, especially north of the I-90 belt as it is often hard to dislodge chilly air, especially when there is still snow on the ground. Keeping this in mind, as these rain systems come through, we need to keep a close eye on surface temperatures for any icing issues. Right now, I don’t think it will become a significant or widespread problem, but we will see for certain as we go through the week, so be sure to check updates…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 32-39. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny morning. Mostly cloudy afternoon. Highs 33-40 by midday, then turning colder. Wind shifting to N 5-15 MPH, then diminishing.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Snow, except some mix South Coast. Snow accumulation a coating to 2 inches, least near the South Coast, most north of I-90. Lows 25-32. Wind N under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Early light snow/mix/rain possible. Late-day rain likely. Highs 33-40 southern NH / northern MA, 40-47 southern MA / RI / eastern CT. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: Cloudy with periods of rain. Pockets of freezing rain may occur mainly interior areas well northwest of Boston. Temperatures nearly steady 32-39 northern valley areas, 40-47 many areas, but rising to 47-54 coastal plain on Friday. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 27-31)

Fair, mild January 27. Watch for a possible storm of rain/mix/snow January 28, but may pass to south. Watch for a disturbance to bring snow or snow showers January 30 or 31 as we trend colder to end the month.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 1-5)

One or two winter precipitation threats in the first several days of February. Temperatures variable but trend colder.

94 thoughts on “Monday January 22 2024 Forecast (7:42AM)”

  2. Good morning and thank you TK
    17 here overnight
    ocean temp down to 41 2

    Euro shows snow chance on the 29th or so. icon similar.
    we slhall see.

    Looks like it will be a close call for Boston to come in above January acerage for snow.

    between tuesday night and the 29th, boston should do it if the 29th passes south, I don’t think so.

  4. Thanks, TK.

    More ice coverage. Close to 80% now between the Mass. Ave bridge and Longfellow. And 100% between Longfellow and Museum of Science. Impressive ice accretion this weekend.

    I stand corrected, by the way.

  6. Briefly, its a super +NAO, +AO pattern.

    +AO: 4 standard deviations above avg

    +NAO: 2 standard deviations above avg

        2. I “think” it was. I know for sure there was no blocking.
          And TK said something like you don’t necessarily need blocking for a big snow storm.

  7. From Mapman:

    0Z Euro for 1/29

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2024012200&fh=180&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    ICON

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=icon&p=prateptype_cat_icon-imp&rh=2024012200&fh=174&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Canadian

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2024012200&fh=180&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    GFS

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2024012206&fh=174&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=prateptype_cat-imp&m=gfs

    Take your pick. None of them are particularly exciting, but 2 deliver something on the 29th, perhaps even enough
    to push Boston above average for January Snowfall.

      1. I agree. It all depends upon what, if anything, materializes
        towards the end of the month. There are definitely possibilities, but they aren’t necessarily certainties. 🙂

      1. You mean tomorrow night. Of course not. I, for one, Knew that and didn’t expect that. It would be one or more systems in the 1/28-1/31 time frame. 🙂

  9. Thank you, TK.

    11 here for the low. No single numbers yet. And if the sun can please melt or soften the ice sheet on our front lawn, I’ll be eternally grateful. The bird feeders need filling and the camera watching the feeders needs a battery replaced

    1. That is truly FUNNY!!!! Thank you.

      I saw a post from Pete where he showed the radar and said
      I didn’t expect this.

      I think they are on the same page. 🙂

      Unless I missed some sarcasm?

  13. You know a place that has seen way above average snowfall since last March: Ashby, Massachusetts, which I believe is fairly close to SClarke and others who live in that area. Ashby got hammered last March, yes, during what was mostly a non-winter. The town got 25 plus inches of snow. Recently it got nearly 20 inches of snow in a single storm.

    1. I haven’t seen anything. I searched but didn’t find mention of it. It’s an odd time of year …or seems to be so wonder the cause

  18. Joshua, you are correct. In Lunenburg we had a snowfall of 25.5″ on 03/14/2023. I’ve recorded 29″ so far this season.

  22. While not necessarily snow, the GFS has a rotating vortex/gyre in eastern Canada extending down into the northeast, that sends shots of cold air in the middle to latter part of the mid range.

    We’ll have to see if there is consistency on that.

    Also, if that could retrograde just a bit further west ……..

  26. And once you’re in a pattern … well, it kind of stays that way. After Isha hit yesterday, Jocelyn is on the way for the British Isles. Remember, storms over there hardly ever mean snowstorms. Not it’s wet and windy Atlantic lows with a westerly flow of relatively mild air. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nmy90Q5efto

    1. I could look at these forever. I was a really good skier but I was more timid than I needed to be so that held me back. My favorite part was exactly what you are all doing in the top photo. I could stand for hours and just look out.

      1. With the exception of my son, I think what they were mostly doing was looking down that double black icy run and saying no way are we doing this!

  28. Short of a few mild days late this week, that 12z GFS run was cold throughout. GEFS looks pretty similar. Not going to be much of a warmup if the GFS is correct.

    Euro had looked similar the past few days, but now has trended milder. Canadian is sort of in between.

    Not a whole lot of model consistency in the mid-long range (shocker).

  29. Eric Webb
    @webberweather

    Over the next several weeks, we’re repeating the same pattern progression we had in late Dec thru mid-Jan, except the cold(er) pattern on the backend of next week’s Pacific Jet extension likely lasts longer (per usual for El Nino)

    Aside from Nino climo, +IOD collapse favors a slower/stronger bout of Indian Ocean forcing late in Feb into Mar, helping to keep the gravy train going.

    Remember that unlike Dec-Jan, Indian Ocean convection in Feb-Mar actually signals cold in the eastern US.

    https://x.com/webberweather/status/1749149974208623063?s=20

    1. If there is a takeaway to that post, it is the last sentence. And consistent with what TK has been talking about.

  30. Total seasonal snowfall to date:

    ORH = 24.0”
    BOS = 7.9”

    Boston needs something to at least make the “score” respectable.

    1. Typically, there is a rather large discrepancy between Boston (Logan, right on the Water) and Worcester (40 miles inland and at 1,000 feet in altitude). It’s NOT even close and should not be expected to be.

  33. Here’s your sign that Spring is just around the corner: Red Sox Truck Day is 2 weeks from today. The 1st workouts for Pitchers and Catchers are just 23 days away.

    Despite all the negativity around the team (some deserved, some media-driven), I always look forward to Spring Training because I am a baseball fan in general, and specifically a Red Sox fan, and that will never change.

    1. You’re a loyal fan. Good for you.

      Frankly, I have had it with that team. They simply are going in the wrong direction. Funny thing is, the backwards trend
      “seemed” to happen right around the time ownership purchased
      that soccer team, Liverpool Football Club. Coincidence?
      I, for one, think not. Other opinions may vary, 🙂

        1. Team WHW

          Oh sports team?
          Don’t really have one anymore.
          Used to be red sox , bruins and patriots.
          Just have not gotten back into hockey. Used to play all the time, even in a couple of leagues. Quit at age 40. 🙂
          perhaps I’ll get back into one of the teams, but I don’t have a lot of interest right now.

    1. Thank you, JJ. I remember 2005. I don’t remember the one in 1961. I was 11 though so sure I enjoyed it.

        1. We got absolutely hammered. That was the comma-head bomb. Thundersnow, gridlock traffic, etc. It was short duration but intense.

          1. Yep. I remember the thunder snow during the time we measured 6 inches in an hour. It was a doozer. We had reservations for an anniversary dinner at the Sherborn Inn. We went the next night. But lost power for four days. On Sunday mac and I went searching for firewood. We arrived home pleased we had found some. All of my kids were standing in the dark in the mud room. We walked in and they flipped the lights on. Every one of them knowing how I’d react that the power was back.

            1. That event produced some of the highest snowfall rates we’ve observed in this part of the country. I had 5 inches in about an hour up here.

              That was the storm I watched from my window and didn’t have to clean up because I was recovering from a stomach virus that kept me out of work the day of the storm.

    1. The good news is that over 3 days we should only see about 1 inch of total precipitation, which we can handle easily. But for those who desire sunshine, not a lot of that until Saturday – maybe.

  42. Eric Webb with a much different view of the pending “torch”….

    Eric Webb
    @webberweather

    I would urge #S2S forecasters to tread carefully with the “big torch” pattern that’s being advertised on NWP models over the Eastern US in early Feb, esp for the coastal mid-Atlantic & SE US.

    While yes, the Pacific jet is extending here & we have a “Pacific Trough” regime that favors warmth over N America, unlike the last Jet extension in Dec, the Pacific jet is shifting more equatorward this time around.

    With an equatorward-shifted Pacific Jet, you run the risk of the undercutting the Canadian ridge over the E US (& any would-be torch).

    Also, as the Canadian Ridge progresses eastward, there may be opportunities for Cold Air Damming (CAD) events to sneak up on you in the medium range

    https://x.com/webberweather/status/1749486583160693025?s=20

  44. Eric F. introducing the upcoming gray stretch:
    “Hopefully you had some good quality time with your sunglasses this afternoon.”

    1. Well. It softened the snow enough that my birds are fed and the bird camera has a new battery. So tweet tweet 🙂

    1. Until the cold front comes by later and tonight it goes back below. And it may struggle to rise back above it in a lot of areas tomorrow, especially interior valleys.

Comments are closed.