Tuesday January 23 2024 Forecast (7:35AM)

101 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 23-27)

We continue to be in an active weather pattern with the storm train getting ready to roll once again. While none of the upcoming few events are powerful, they all produce precipitation for our region. Thankfully, the total precipitation in this 5-day period will be modest, as we’re certainly not in need of it due to recent bigger events and rivers just recovering from flooding. We expect train car #1 to come by this evening in the form of mostly snow, a light event, as a warm front approaches the region, propelled weakly by an area of low pressure passing to our south. This will taper off as a light mix early Wednesday. The next 2 cars of the train (aka low pressure areas) come along Wednesday night into Thursday and Thursday night into Friday. Both of these will produce rain for the region, but some of that rain may be freezing rain over interior locations from the Merrimack Valley to southern NH Wednesday night – something to watch closely. We dry out later Friday, and catch a break Saturday which will be fair and relatively mild with a weak area of high pressure moving in to start the weekend.

TODAY: Partial sunshine this morning for some locations, otherwise cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind NW-N up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Snow arrives evening, continues overnight before tapering off to a light mix of snow/ice/rain. Snow accumulation a coating to 2 inches, least near the coast, most north and west of Boston. Lows 25-32. Wind NE under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Early light snow/mix/rain possible. Late-day rain likely but may fall as freezing rain in pockets from the Merrimack Valley north and west. Highs 32-39 southern NH / northern MA, 40-47 southern MA / RI / eastern CT. Wind NE-E to variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Rain likely except some freezing rain in pockets Merrimack Valley north and west. Temperatures generally steady 31-38 Merrimack Valley north and west, 38-45 elsewhere. Wind NE under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Rain early in the day. Highs 35-42 valley areas Route 2 northward, 42-49 elsewhere. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain likely. Temperatures steady 35-42 valley areas Route 2 northward, 42-49 elsewhere. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Rain ends in the morning. Temperatures remain steady 35-42 valley areas Route 2 northward, 42-49 elsewhere. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Breaking clouds. Areas of fog. Lows 30-37. Watch for patches of black ice where temperatures fall to 30-32. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 28 – FEBRUARY 1)

Storm potential January 28-29 may start as rain/mix then change to mix/snow. Mostly dry weather follows January 30-31. Another snow chance may appear for February 1. Temperatures variable, near to above normal for the period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 2-6)

Fair weather early in the period, another winter storm threat mid or late period. Temperatures variable but trend colder.

101 thoughts on “Tuesday January 23 2024 Forecast (7:35AM)”

  1. Good morning and thank you TK

    32 over night hete

    ocean off boston 41.5

    blah blah blah

    Jan. 23 and still no big snow and prospects don’t look grreat. Maybe we can squee,e out a moderate snow the 28-29th????? We shall see.

    1. Fits right into the general rule of thumb regarding larger snow threats in El Niño Winters.

      Also be careful about taking the model details to literally for that January 28-29 system. We are not at the final solution.

      1. Oh, i understand and realize that. Still doesn’t look like a major storm at this time to me. I may be overly pessimistic. We’ll see. Hoping for at least a moderate snow event. 🙂

  7. Thanks, TK.

    Never got to freezing here last night. Perhaps it gets to 32F tonight. We’ll see. If it does not we’ll be well on our way towards another 5 day period without even a frost at night. This, my friends, has been THE theme of both this winter and last: Numerous prolonged frost-less periods. We did have a sustained period of cold this past week, but that’s truly anomalous compared to the rest of this winter as well as last winter.

    For what it’s worth the European mets I follow are not seeing much in terms of cold well into February. With a few exceptions of very brief cold interludes, they’re seeing mostly above to even at times well above average temperatures until at least mid February). This applies both for Northwestern Europe and the Northeast of the U.S.

          1. True, they all have been,

            I just read Dr. Judah Cohen’s blog. He is so damn confusing. He gives all these different scenarios, it’s difficult to figure out exactly what he thinks is going to happen. I “think” he is forecasting milder weather ahead, but I can’t tell for sure.

            This reminds me of his approach: look at 11:16

            https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1oXJFTQUw2o

            1. His method is usually to forecast what he wants, then say anything can happen.

              I like him, nice guy.

              His delivery…. Like I said, nice guy. 🙂

  12. How thin was that layer of ice over the Charles river where I live? Well, really thin. It got to 80% coverage, as I noted yesterday, which was a bit more than it did last year. BUT the coverage was so thin that even a small bump above freezing has caused numerous breaks in the ice and expansion of pockets of water that hadn’t frozen over. I observed these on my run this morning. It’s 38.4F in Back Bay. The ice retreat has commenced, though not yet on the Esplanade lagoon, which has much shallower water. The ice is still quite solid on the lagoon, with just a bit of (melted) water on top.

    If I was a betting man, I’d gamble on not getting back to 80% ice coverage on the Charles at its widest point this winter. But only time will tell.

  14. 40.2F in downtown Boston. Some `overshooting’ going on here, perhaps, as the temp continues to rise steadily. Certainly more than I expected by 10:30am.

  15. Vicki, I recall when I first moved to Boston what a difference of just a few miles inland (I lived in Brookline, near Reservoir) made in terms of temperature. Often at least 1 and sometimes as much as 2 degrees. So, given that you’re much further inland, it makes sense that the difference in temp increases, Sutton being colder, of course.

  18. GFS has RAIN for the 28th-29th

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2024012312&fh=132&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    with slow transition to snow

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2024012312&fh=144&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    24 hour snow

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_024h-imp&rh=2024012312&fh=153&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    total snow

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2024012312&fh=150&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    1. Indeed . Looking ahead this evening the projected temp all night is 34 for Boston , nothing to eventful out of this one around these parts .

  20. Thanks TK.

    San Diego had its wettest January day on record yesterday with severe flooding in the city. This is a prelude to what will be a *heavily* Pacific influenced pattern for the CONUS the next 3 weeks at least. California is about to get deluged… but the implications in SNE are much less clear cut.

    The knee jerk reaction is “torch”. But while the CONUS as a whole will no doubt see above average temperatures the next 3 weeks, there’s a lot of nuance. While areas like the Midwest and Plains will probably be decidedly un-winter like for the foreseeable future, there will still be winter weather chances in SNE. But unlike with the recent pattern, thermal profiles will be a concern with just about any potential snow threats.

    By mid-February, we’ll probably see a pattern change and likely some dramatic winter weather fireworks over the eastern US….

  22. Is the stuff showing up in radar hitting the ground. I’m headed out this afternoon and won’t drive home till about 4:00. I was thinking that would be before snow starts but maybe it’s early????

  23. After a few mild days later this week, the 12z GFS keeps it cool to cold in New England through the end of its run with our weather diving straight down from Hudson Bay while much of the rest of the country “torches”.

    12z Canadian has the boundary a bit farther north with the coldest air confined to NNE.

    Regardless, looking at the models and reading WxW’s post above, I would temper any expectations for an extended period of mild air in New England after this week.

    1. Saw you posted thoughts from Eric Webb on the last blog. He is definitely a good follow. Can come off as a bit arrogant/know it all at times (as can I, I readily admit), but at the very least, he knows his stuff and is probably about the best source out there for seasonal/sub-seasonal forecast thoughts. My thought process above follows closely along his line of thinking…

      1. Yes, I follow him from time to time as he really seems to know what he is talking about. Didnt know much about him but it is usually a good sign when you see other respected mets following him as well.

  25. This is scary!

    Volcaholic
    @volcaholic1

    Whoahhh!!!!

    Roi-Namur Island was struck by several substantial waves on Saturday night. It was NOT a tsunami. The powerful waves, driven by cyclonic surges in the open sea, affected the island located in the northern part of the Kwajalein Atoll in the Marshall Islands.

    Video credit: Erik D. Hanson
    @worldmaverik
    on Instagram

    https://x.com/volcaholic1/status/1749554817431675230?s=20

  26. Eric Fisher and Jim Cantore follow
    Mike Masco
    @MikeMasco

    RIDGE RIDING COLD AIR PATTERN AHEAD..
    I keep seeing these warm-crazed forecasts and winter is dead posts and I just don’t get it (or see it) evolving.

    The upcoming 5-10 day pattern is a reprieve from the below average temperature or what some call call the #JanuaryThaw .. However, going into week 1 of February you can obviously see the impacts of the INTENSE ridge over the northern plains. I call this pattern ridge riding cold air as it drops down the front side of the trough directly into the OH Valley and northeast.
    You can literally trace your air parcel to the north pole in these scenario seeding a deeper mean trough over the eastern USA. Modeling likes to lift these troughs out fast (so careful with the models esp ensembles).

    Now, the ridge correcting east would be a worry to me and would throw this forecast into a bust..but the overall correction shouldn’t be east but more west as heights build east of Hawaii. This interaction would push the ridge west and correct the trough east by week 1+2 in February.

    Theres a TON to look at here and still very excited for the back half of Winter

    https://x.com/MikeMasco/status/1749494014766669829?s=20

  30. Bad Euro, bad bad Euro slop fest craporama!

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmet&p=sn10_024h-imp&rh=2024012312&fh=144&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2024012312&fh=132&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    d

    24 hour snow

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_024h-imp&rh=2024012312&fh=144&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    total snow

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2024012312&fh=144&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

  34. After a review of all the latest info…

    No changes, really.

    Same expected accumulation tonight.

    Same timeline for the events ahead.

    Somebody will need to plow and shovel by the end of the weekend.

    NO blowtorch pattern. Meteorology tells you otherwise.

    Interesting times ahead for winter weather events and shots of cold air.

    The difference between the last 3 La Nina winters and this El Nino phase will show itself. Still think El Nino is starting to fade, but not quickly enough to negate the impact. The latest outlooks indicate El Nino hangs on through March but weakens with time, ENSO neutral conditions arrive in time for spring, followed by the return of a La Nina for summer 2024.

    Wildcard HTE still showing itself in many areas ’round the globe. Get ready for that for another 2 years anyway…some projects say up to 7 or 8 years!

    1. Which raises questions about hurricane season me thinks.

      My two weather reading topics these days are the 2024 hurricane season and [ridiculous] articles about the intersection of AI and weather forecasting. The former is much more interesting than the latter.

      1. I just hope we don’t think we can rely that much on AI for this stuff anytime soon – if ever. It just isn’t going to happen.

        As far as hurricane season. SAK already brought this up not long ago, and I agree. If we head into La Nina, the implications are that an active season is more likely than if we were to hang in El Nino. That’s a pretty solid rule of thumb, with minimal exceptions. Will be interesting to monitor the progress…

        And as I’ve already said many times and will say MANY more times, the HTE has absolutely got to be taken into account wtih everything, and I mean everything weather and climate related. It’s not to be minimized. There’s more than enough evidence IMO to not diminish its impact and potential impact, and as we observe it we need to learn from it.

        1. I agree. The problem with AI is that it will probably never work. What is disturbing is that articles are being written by AI scientists, not meteorologists. There is extreme confusion between meteorology and modelology. There is little understanding of models, especially their limits. And last but not least, meteorology is part art, something AI scientists will tell you they can model. NOT LIKELY.

          As for hurricane season, the retreat of El Nino and appearance of La Nina or something neutral is of concern. I am also wondering if I am seeing warmer than normal waters in the North Atlantic and Caribbean. I don’t know enough to know if I am right. I am not even an amateur meteorologist, but one thing I know is that for me personally hurricanes and hurricane forecasting are both a pain in the A$$ but it is fun to watch and learn.

          1. The waters of the North Atlantic have generally been running warm with the AMO in its warm phase for a while.

      1. Oh for sure. Always understood that. It’s just so interesting that many people believe that it can’t snow unless it is 32 or less. 🙂

        Here, we all know it can snow sometime well above 32. 🙂

        Frankly, with it 38 I actually thought that it might rain given how light the intensity is. 🙂

        1. If the mild layer is shallow enough, and it is, the flakes will survive right down to the surface as you are seeing. 🙂

          Looking ahead, I think some people are going to be surprised by how many winter weather opportunities are yet to come.

          1. That would be good but many winter opportunities could also become many misses opportunities.

            1. Opportunities are not guaranteed and include the chance of hit and miss.

              My point is we have a long way to go. This is not the last 3 years.

  37. Must be tons of dry air above. Snow continues to break up on radar. If the atmosphere does ever moisten up, it’s going to be very late this evening, if not until midnight. Just my thoughts on that.

    2. Actually most of it is late evening to overnight, but as noted in my discussion, the accumulation is a coating to 2 inches, not just 2 inches. The range includes the bottom amount as well.

      1. Very likely Worcester increases their lead over Boston for seasonal snowfall. Oh well.

        ORH = 24.0”
        BOS = 7.9”

  44. Riding my bike back from Cambridge tonight wasn’t difficult. But they had treated the bike paths with tons of salt. I mean mounds of it. It was weird going through loads of salt. My tires are all white as is the bottom of my coat. This is because I don’t have a fender on my bike. Luckily it’s a very old coat which has been through more than two decades of use. Adding salt stains just adds to its allure. Well, when I wear it I feel like I’ll never be robbed.

    It’s 34F here. Nothing of note falling out of the sky. Felt some drizzle and saw some wet snow, but nothing sticking.

  45. Snow is filling in as expected. Most of it falls in the next 6 hours. Coating to 2 inches for all. May be a few 3 inch amounts in the hills to the NW.

    May be a more substantial snowfall before the end of the month (January 28-29).

    Also, as was noted earlier, the temp is going down. Boston was 40 for a high, now 35, will get to about 32 for a low.

    1. Been snowing here for 9 hours. I commented to seven year old rilyn mac that not much was accumulating for so many hours. Her response was “at least it’s falling and it’s not rain”

      Can’t beat the wonder of childhood

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