Thursday January 25 2024 Forecast (7:25AM)

134 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 25-29)

We’re in the midst of a parade of low pressure areas moving along the boundary between mild air to the south and Canadian cold to the north. It’s warm enough that the event just ending and the next one coming late tonight into Friday will fall as rain in the area. The advertised break still comes on Saturday, but may do so with little or no sun while clouds hang tough. The next storm approaches during Sunday and the time frame for this one is Sunday afternoon / evening into Monday. This one will also arrive as colder air arrives from Canada, so it looks like a rain/mix to snow set up, and the exact details of timing of cold air’s arrival and how much precipitation is still to occur will determine the eventual snow amounts. For now, an early call is that a substantial snowfall is possible for parts of the region during that time period.

TODAY: Cloudy. Patchy fog this morning. Areas of rain early morning. Highs 38-45 north, 45-52 south. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Rain returns overnight. Patchy fog. Lows 36-43 north, 43-50 south. Wind variable under 10 mph.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Rain ends in the morning. Patchy fog. Temperatures steady 36-43 north, 43-50 south. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Breaking clouds. Areas of fog. Lows 30-37. Watch for patches of black ice where temperatures fall to freezing or below. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy – breaks of sun possible. Highs 40-47. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Cloudy overnight. Lows 25-32. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Overcast. Rain/mix arrives in the afternoon. Highs 35-42. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT / MONDAY: Overcast. Rain/mix changing to snow. Temperatures fall to 20s. Wind NE-N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 30 – FEBRUARY 3)

Below normal temperatures for a good portion of this period, moderating toward the end of next week. Dry to start. Watch January 31 / February 1 for possible snow or snow showers, then a return to fair weather thereafter.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 4-8)

Fair early period, another storm potential mid to late period. Temperatures trend colder.

134 thoughts on “Thursday January 25 2024 Forecast (7:25AM)”

  2. Its pretty neat to see the obs this morning.

    Warm sector made it 10 miles or so north of the Mass Pike.

    North of that, rather calm wind and temps in the upper 30s.

    South of that, a southwest breeze and 50F or a bit higher.

  4. Good morning and thank you TK

    48 here

    Snow gone save for a few patches here and there and they’ll be gone soon.

    ocrean 41.2

    Watching Sunday/Monday.
    getting mixed messages, but Euro looks great We shall see.

    Nam and Rdps coming into range for another look.

    1. NAM is still going to be outside it’s best spot for several runs, so use caution with that one. 🙂

  6. Thanks TK
    With those temperatures if snow happens it would be that heavy wet snow. When you go out and shovel it is like moving concrete.

  7. “For now, an early call is that a substantial snowfall is possible for parts of the region during that time period.”

    Change “possible” to “likely” and “parts” to “all” and we’re good to go!

  12. Sump pump has been been running steadily for the last month.
    I believe our neighborhood was once cranberry bogs or swamp at one time.

    It was a year ago this weekend that the old sump pump (and back-up) crapped out and the basement flooded for the six time since 2002. What a mess!!! We had had enough and got Busy Dog to come in and put a french drain system in and they installed a larger, 1/3 hp pump. The cellar has been wonderfully dry since the end of February!

  16. Thanks TK.

    I like “substantial” 🙂 We are due for one to thread the needle, as most storms have been rain. Eventually one of these will hit and looking at the 500mb, I have to agree with Bernie. Also temps at 850 look cold enough. Looks just cold enough to flip to snow, but not cold enough to over suppress. Might be the jackpot over SSK’s house

      1. hmmm…..
        My handle gets placed in many comments. I have no problem with it. In fact, often times, I think it is pretty cool. 🙂

  17. 12Z RDPS want to come pretty far North before sprouting
    a coastal development

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2024012512&fh=75&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2024012512&fh=81&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2024012512&fh=84&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Keeps the RAIN in here MUCH longer!

    Rain/SNOW line is very close to the 850 MB freezing line.

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=850th&rh=2024012512&fh=84&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    OH, this will still go over to snow, but will ROB us of many
    inches of snow.

    It short, this would be a ROYAL SCREW JOB!!!!!!

  18. The last time I remember a rain to snow situation where several inches of snow happened was back in March 2005.

  22. Thank you, TK!

    And thank you for your HTHH response to my question last night. I responded over there rather than take the space on todays blog.

  25. ONTO THE EURO….

    I am NOT getting good vibes at this time. Still plenty of time
    for things to line up better…but for now color me skeptical of a substantial snowfall.

  26. I am feeling the same way you are. Best shot at accumulating snow the interior but question is how much???

  27. Question for homeowners and others:

    We have a serious problem in the building, which does not affect my unit but does impact several units on the 4th and 5th floors. A pipe froze this past weekend and then burst causing a major leak that impacted 3 units with so far at least tens of thousands of dollars in damages, according to initial estimates.

    I know that pipes can freeze under 20F and it was in the teens. However, I think that something else must be going on, namely, there was a prolonged period of no heat and no running water through the pipes in a section of the building. I say this because in my 21 years of living here we’ve never had an issue such as this, and have experienced FAR colder episodes, with periods of nights in the single digits and low teens.

    To provide further context, the unit owner complained to me about her heat not coming on in one section of the apartment. This was back in early January.

    Just now I was told that certain valves (I’m assuming for heat and running water) had been closed to other units during a renovation late last year and possibly not reopened. If this is the culprit, that would make a massive difference as we wouldn’t be relying on our insurance to either pay for the damages or not, but rather the renovator’s insurance.

    I apologize for the long post.

    If someone has an idea, please let me know.

    The building manager keeps saying it’s because of the “extreme cold.” I keep telling her it just can’t be that simple. There has to be another explanation.

    1. Joshua I will ask my son in law. It’s his business. He’s off on a job right now but I’ll ask when he returns.

    1. If I am interpreting the models correctly, this isn’t a dynamic system, sort of speak.

      Yes, the column above is cooling a little, but its not going to be enough to take us down to 32F or under at the sfc.

      So, I’d say mostly a no.

  32. Joshua, my son in law said the decision has to be made by an independent plumber and not the building manager. He said his gut tells him you have exterior pipes that need rerouting. That would be expensive.

    But if you can prove areas were shut off, even with exterior pipes that do not normally freeze, any pipe with stagnant water in it is going to freeze at the temps we had, especially if in exterior walls.

    He mentioned something about glycol as he went back the door on his call but I didn’t get all of that. Sorry. I knew he was in a hurry

    Question from me….do you all share cost or is cost limited to the apartments that had damage.

    1. I hear you.

      The cold air is too retreated.

      So, to get it down here while getting the southern stream moisture up here require 2 different wind flows at 500 mb.

        1. It is.

          This pattern sent even the polar air (never mind the arctic air) to about 55-60N Latitude.

          Its literally too far away, even with a perfect track, in the HEART of winter.

          Its just another long term unsettling sign.

  38. Thank you, Vicki, SO much for your reply.

    We all share in the cost. It’s going to be bigly, to put it in Trumpian terms. Demolition of walls, ceilings, the works. Thankfully, my unit was spared of damage. But financially we’ll all take a hit one way or another.

    2. Oh nooooo. It is set up thar tenants and not owners pay? My SIL said it will be very expensive. Is there a way to prove heat was not cut off,…..or was?.

  40. Vicki, beside the deductible insurance will likely cover a lot of the damage. We’ll know more soon. However, it’s a high deductible, insurance won’t cover all of the very expensive repairs, and premiums will jump.

    We’re pursuing the route of trying to find out why there was no heat and who’s responsible. But I think we all must prepare for a financial hit.

  43. So what we know at the moment, is that there will be accumulating
    snow Sunday night into Monday. Models are trending stronger and
    colder with this system. What remains unknown is – 1)the transition
    timing of the rain/snow line from NW to SE, 2) amplitude of system
    will determine duration of snow and amounts – slower vs more
    progressive, and 3) area of max snowfall. Hence, lots of
    predictability issues. For now, plan on at least some accumulating
    snow Sunday night into Monday, along with strong NE winds. With
    temps likely falling AOB freezing Sun night into Monday, travel will
    be impacted. Stay tuned to later forecasts and discussion. Highs
    Monday from the upper 20s to lower 30s.

    This surprises me. Ok, I guess I’m missing something.

    1. Sunday night/Monday…good model agreement, deterministic &
      ensembles guidance indicate mid level trough amplifies and
      transitions from an open wave to a closed mid level circulation as
      it tracks over or just south of New England. Cold air will be
      manufactured from the top-down in response to height falls with
      dynamical and diabatic cooling processes then changing rain over to
      snow from NW to SE. This may result in the rain/snow line collapsing
      all the way to the south coast overnight into Monday morning. Then
      as the system continues to deepen early Monday, with surface cyclone
      tracking near the 40N/70w benchmark, comma head snows would likely
      impact the region before the entire system moves offshore.

      Some more of their discussion.

  44. Looking closer at the GFS and Euro, I can see a nice low at 850 mb and good onshore flow.

    But the GFS has Boston at 34F and the euro has Boston at 35F and low to mid 30s over a large chunk of the area through the majority of the event.

    1. If the cold air was going to get better entrained and earlier into the storm, I think I’d have more anticipation for the weekend system.

      1. I think the majority of the heaviest precipitation from that event falls after the switch to snow, including in Boston.

      2. As of this moment I have ZERO anticipation for the weekend system! ZERO! It looks like a total DUD right now. Of course, there is time for this to change so it needs to be monitored.
        Color me UNIMPRESSED as of now 🙂

  45. Quick updated thoughts…

    The NWS called today an “overperformer” and they were right. Some limited sun, and as a result quite mild for late January! No blowtorch but plenty of 50-55 readings which made it very pleasant to be outside.

    But back to the dank tank overnight into Friday, but a rain event. Any icing will be confined to areas west and north of the WHW forecast zone.

    Dry weather returns later Friday through Saturday, and again not all that cold as we have not yet felt the return of the polar jet. It’s spent a fair amount of time well to the north so far this winter. Don’t worry, it’ll make up for that before winter’s end. In fact, it’s going to start to play into things in time for the next storm threat, which arrives Sunday and departs Monday.

    Right now I favor a midday arrival of rain for the region, but a fairly quick change to snow Sunday later afternoon and evening from north to south, INCLUDING the South Coast. The early hours of Monday may look like an old fashioned winter snowstorm ’round these parts, and while it only lasts a few hours as we maximize deepening low pressure and cold air, it should be enough to give a plowable snow to just about everybody and for some areas the largest snowfall of the season so far. Not guaranteeing this yet, but it’s quite possible to probable. In 24 hours I’ll have a more definitive call including expected snowfall accumulation first guess.

    As I stated previously, I thought CPC was overdoing it with the “above normal” forecast for next week. Well, temperatures are going to be BELOW NORMAL Monday through Wednesday. So, there you have it. Oh and there’s a bit of a signal for a very strong trough (polar jet stream disturbance) that may bring a measurable snowfall event in the January 31 / February 1 time frame.

    Let me remind everybody that winter started one month and 4 days ago. There’s a LONG way to go. 🙂

      1. Ahh but there is so much more LIGHT now and average temps are on the rise now. Isn’t that something to feel good about?

        1. Yes 🙂

          I’ve been fortunate, very much so, to get to the south many of the past Dec or February’s but it’s not working out that way this year. So, I’ll need to wait til late April/May to see green and other colors. The brown earth is doing a number on my spirit. I hope it’s covered in white by Sunday, that will help !!!!!!

        2. That doesn’t really play into this. Our problem has been the polar jet WAY north on this side of the hemisphere while being plenty south on the other side. It’s been a lopsided set-up for a lot of the winter.

    2. You sound so optimistic, uncharacteristically so!
      You have my attention even though I am currently unmoved by what I see. 🙂 BUT, as always, I WILL be watching developments
      very closely. 🙂

  46. I just watched ch 5 and the radar simulation for Sunday night/Monday morning.

    You know you have marginal air/precip intensity dependent when you have heavy snow simulated on Cape Cod and on the NW most edge of the precip shield where it’s very light, it’s pink (mix) and then even, green (rain). 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

  47. Now, the 18z gfs does allow at the very end for some snow to hang on and some cold air to be entrained. I think it projects Boston in the upper 20s before the snow completely shuts off.

    That’s on top of what heavy wet snow could accomplish under a comma head.

  48. “It’s easier to snow coming out of warm than it is coming out of cold”.

    -Peter Leavitt (my mentor, and perhaps the greatest meteorologist I have ever known, in person or otherwise)

    1. to me that means 8 inches plus. can we do it with this system??? we shall see. I am not feeling it yet anyway.

      2. Certainly possible with a system like this if we drag in (and manufacture) the cold air quickly enough.

        1. Ya know…even if it doesn’t materialize, I’m sitting here with some happy and a few sad memories. So thank you for those……and even for the tears they bring

    2. I love the thought of an old fashioned snow storm. I immediately think of being in school and waiting for the fire station horns to sound the “no school” signal. Or waiting anxiously for the news anchors to announce your school closing.

      1. Awwww me too. I’ve said a million times but my younger brother and I would hang out the window to hear the horn. And most of the time we already knew since my dad worked at the police department

        And boy do I remember those school names scrolling so SLOWLY across the tv screen

      2. I’m spinning back to the days of listening to the school closings on the clock radio next to my bed, waiting for East Greenbush Central School District. The first one I hear is East Schodack, and they are given in alphabetical order!

        2. lol! I was Abington and I always seemed to tune in when they were on the towns starting with the letter B.

          1. And in Belmont I got the C’s. In a sad way, and I am not a fan of thinking any generation is better than another, but so many won’t have those memories with our current instant gratification

  50. I was in VA and loved listening to the radio for high school closings. Sadly no snow delays in Syria or Saudi Arabia growing up 🙂

  51. Even though I’m an older millennial, I remember listening to the radio as a kid for the school closings. Growing up in North Attleboro we got a lot of the RI stations and WPRO was a regular. They called it “Operation Snowball” and Salty Brine would read off the towns.

      2. I have a CD which includes Salty reading Twas The Night Before Christmas on the Loren & Wally morning show. 🙂

  52. One of the wonderful outcomes was when the dreaded starting-one-hour-late was subsequently upgraded to a closure 🙂

  54. NAM is certainly much colder and snowier outcome. Heading in the direction of what TK and Sak were showing. Still outside of range but it’s getting there.

  55. Hadi, I read somewhere a while ago that Damascus – a city on my bucket list – every so often gets snow. Is this true?

  56. JR’s final thoughts tonight on the Sunday/early Monday event:

    “Metro Boston 2 inches but February LOOMS.”

  58. I think anyone throwing 2 inches or 8 inches around isn’t going to be right. Things have trended colder and more robust. As TK and SAK have eluded to, this looks like a 3-6, 4-8 type of event at this point.

    NAM/Euro look pretty robust overall. All depends on how quick the change we happen. Ref flag is the RGEM which has been decent overall is much warmer. So more to work through.

  61. 6Z NAM down considerably from 0Z.
    This thing is up in the air. Look at the 6Z RDPS, ICON and GFS.
    A big snow is no certainty. Possible, sure, certainty? NOPE.

    Waiting on the 12Z Runs. We shall see. The Norton NWS is on the fence.

  62. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2024012600&fh=78&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=sfct-imp&rh=2024012600&fh=78&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    I know its the NAM at the end of its range, but I think these 2 panels sum up what the battle is.

    On link 2, one can see that to the north of the precip shield in SE Maine, its actually 1F-2F milder, 34F-35F, whereas under the heavy comma shield snow, its 32F-33F.

    So, the cold air and I had this wrong yesterday thinking the storm was not dynamic is coming from the storm. The cold in SE Canada is staying separate.

    Can you get a plowable snow at the lowest elevations, yes !

    But, there is very little margin for error.

  64. Quite a decent dump of rain in the last 2-3 hrs. I think Logan has received 0.30 inches over the past 2 hrs.

    New dog is smart, took 2 steps into it and promptly turned around. 🙂 🙂 🙂

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