Friday January 26 2024 Forecast (7:22AM)

222 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 26-30)

As low pressure approaches and passes through the region it will do a gelatin-wobble along a boundary near the South Coast, keeping us cool and damp. The steadiest rain falls this morning then tapers to patchy drizzle from midday on. We dry out somewhat tonight and for a good part of Saturday, but a little trough dropping into the region on Saturday can still trigger a few showers of rain, with some mix/snow showers north of Route 2 where temperatures will be marginal to support some frozen precipitation. That colder air will drain slowly southward through Sunday as the next low pressure area approaches. There’s a little uncertainty as to when its precipitation shield overspreads the region. The earlier Sunday this occurs, the more likely it starts as rain, and the later it occurs, the more likely it starts as rain to the south but a mix of rain and snow to the north. Regardless, as this final low in the series travels to our south, it’ll pull in additional cold and evolve into a snow event Sunday night into Monday, before it moves away. A general light to moderate snowfall is expected, with exact amounts depending on some details yet to be worked out, forecast-wise. But that process will be ongoing, which I can share in comments and update in more detail on tomorrow’s blog post. But for now, an early call is that 3 or more inches of snowfall can be expected across much of the WHW forecast area from that system. Later Monday and Tuesday will feature drier, cold weather.

TODAY: Cloudy. Rain morning, patchy drizzle afternoon. Areas of fog. Highs 37-44. Wind NE-E under 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 30-37. Watch for patches of black ice where temperatures fall to freezing or below. Wind NE-N under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. A shower of rain except rain or snow north of Route 2. Highs 40-47. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 27-34. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Overcast. Rain/mix arrives in the afternoon. Highs 35-42. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Snow to the north, rain changing to snow to the south. Temperatures fall to 20s. Wind NE-N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Overcast with snow likely in the morning. Snow ending with breaking clouds afternoon. Temperatures remain in 20s. Wind NE-N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 13-20. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 30-37. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 31 – FEBRUARY 4)

Below normal temperatures for a good portion of this period, moderating toward the end of next week. Dry to start. Watch January 31 through February 2 for possible snow or snow showers, then a return to fair weather thereafter.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 5-9)

Fair start and finish, winter storm potential mid period. Temperatures near to below normal.

222 thoughts on “Friday January 26 2024 Forecast (7:22AM)”

  2. In no particular order, mid weekend storm, the low at 850 mb and the 850 mb NE jet from the models. Strong signal.

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=850wh&rh=2024012600&fh=78&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=850wh&rh=2024012600&fh=78&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=850wh&rh=2024012600&fh=78&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=icon&p=850wh&rh=2024012600&fh=78&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Interesting set up for late Subday/Monday. If the storm gets intense enough for heavier precip, no doubt it snows. The sooner this happens the more snow we get.

    mixed bag with 0z and 6z runs.
    We shall see what the 12z runs bring us. This could be a be a
    nuisance event OR a major snow storm or anything in between.
    Oh, the anticipation.

    Last night Pete said 6 plus inland and Maybe 4 inches Boston, then showed 60% chance of 2-4 ibches for Boston area. That, of course, was with info available as of 11pm broadcast

    Based on what I have seen over the years, these systems often tend to flip to snow sooner rather than later. all depends on intensity and track.

    fun times ahead.

  4. It will be nice having the 3km nam comepletely in range That would provide sone additional good information. Have to wait a few more runs the 6z shows promise, but just didn’t go far enough out

  5. Thanks TK

    I like a 3-6 range region wide, just feel we’ve burned with warmer temps so still waffling 🙂

    1. Could be a good reasonable range.
      it’s been tough this Winter. It will be fun wTching the models deal with this.

      One thing of note:
      the Euro 10:1 snow maps includes a shit ton of mix/possible sleet and not all that much straight snow

  7. Thanks TK! This is my second winter along the South Coast and I have yet to see a winter storm watch issued. Does this storm have WSW potential?

    2. Yes, it’s been raining quite hard in Boston. I’m within a couple of miles of Logan.

      It’s not the epic, biblical rains we’ve been having. Nonetheless, because of the high water table and the fact that everything is saturated there will a lot of ponding on the roadways, bike paths and grassy areas. I even saw this yesterday. This was enhanced by the snow melt.

      And the magical disappearance of ice was an amazing sight. Between the Mass. Ave and BU bridge practically all the ice was gone in a 24 hour period: Fog and mild temps, coupled with the fact that the ice wasn’t thick to begin with. It went from 80% coverage of thin ice to maybe 10%.

      1. Sometimes, I am lazy and will walk across the lawn, instead of the driveway to get to my car.

        And the lawn is full of tiny puddles of standing water. Its beyond silly.

          1. I didn’t, but I wasn’t looking for them.

            At the same time, I do feel like there are signs of birds having dug a bit here and there, so I am guessing there are plenty.

  11. I am certainly for examining all future model runs and they are important for the track of the low, in making sure it doesn’t go too far south.

    I do think the main parameters are set though.

    We can’t count on that Canadian cold air to make it in time, except for maybe the last 10%.

    This is the dynamics, where the heaviest precip goes over and in lower elevations, that all important 1F.

    It might not even be a question of rain/snow, I can buy into snow all the way to Nantucket at some point.

    But heavy snow at 34F ……… and heavy snow at even 33F or 32F are going to get you two very different accumulations in low lying elevations.

    1. Honestly, IF it is truly heavy snow there would not be much
      difference in accumulation between 32 and 34 surface temp.
      However, If the snow is lighter than true heavy, then by all means.

      How many times do we see TRULY HEAVY SNOW?
      Not all that often. Most snow storms vary between a good solid accumulating light snow to Moderate snow. It is not all that often that it is truly heavy snow. To be sure it has happened, but not all that often and usually not for a long duration.

      2. It does make me recall that storm maybe 2 or 3 years ago as a notable exception.

        I think we received about 25 inches in 8 hours and must have been under heavy snow for a good 4-6 straight hours.

        And then it melted in about 5 days. 🙁

      1. That’s only the start, before the deepening occurs.

        It doesn’t come in as a wall of heavy precipitation.

  22. Even if not a blockbuster, timing is such that I imagine a snow day is likely for many–we haven’t had one yet (and we don’t have to make them up) so the bar is lower than usual….

    1. The higher res guidance can pollute itself with too much warm air in the boundary layer outside 48.

      12km res represents better 54-84.

  33. It’s beginning to look like the NAM is on an island of it’s own.
    When that has happened it the past, it has been mostly the KISS OF DEATH

    We still have the UKMET and the EURO. 🙂

  34. After reviewing 12z info (except ECMWF), no changes to forecast.

    #MeteorologyNotModelology
    #GuidanceNotGospel

    😉

    1. I don’t know how you deal with it!!!
      It would DRIVE ME NUTS if I HAD to make daily forecasts
      with this CRAP FEST of model output!

  36. Thanks TK.

    I remain in general agreement with your thoughts. While it’s definitely never “easy”, I think a lot of your seasonal to sub-seasonal thoughts on this winter have played out well so far, and they largely mirror my own. Pattern more or less behaving as expected.

    I still don’t love the weekend setup for big snow at least in the coastal plain because of the thermals and the low margin for error on track (“thread the needle”). But this may be one where elevation plays a big role. If the more northern track verifies, could be a cement delivery for the Worcester hills. If it gets squashed south, I see dry air causing big problems. My **early** over/under for Boston would be 3″… maybe leaning towards the under…

    Long range: the shovels and plows are gonna be getting a serious workout the next month and a half. No, it won’t be 2015, and there will be 5-10 day stretches that go by without significant snowfall. But I would venture it’s the best looking winter pattern in several years, maybe the best since 2015. The next 7-10 days are a transition period into it. The other day I was thinking more towards mid-February, but doesn’t look like it wants to wait that long…

      1. No guarantee I’m right 😉 but IMO, a lot of people are writing this winter off for being “not good enough” so far and just ignoring what’s a very wintry looking pattern heading into February.

        But I’ve also fully the accepted the fact that the 2010-2015 period permanently altered the perceptions of many SNE residents when it comes to snow, culminating in the 2015 snow blitz. Many people who lived through that in SNE will never be “impressed” by snow again. But the reality is, we can have big winters and big storms without reaching the sort of astronomical, once in 1000 year numbers we saw during that sequence.

        2. I mentioned Sundays storm to my son last night. He txtd back that he and his wife had just been saying we have seen a lot of snow so far even if it isn’t accumulating or if rain takes it away. I love the positive

  37. I’m resigned to this being not my kind of winter. In December and January we’ve had plenty of the kind of weather we’ve endured this week, and very little of the weather we had last week.

    Going forward, if I set my expectations low, the remainder of winter can only be better than what I expected.

  38. The snow projections might not be consistent, but a good low at 850 mb traveling parallel, south of the south coast and a nice NE low level jet are consistent.

    I buy into a period of moderate to heavy snow.

    I just wonder about how effective it accumulates at lower elevations.

    2. I see that consistent 850 low and flow.

      Good name for a tune, ” the low and flow”
      Or better yet, a name for a rock band. 🙂

  40. It’s interesting to me there’s so much confidence of a pattern change and more snow in Feb. yet when the predictions of warmth came up it was largely ignored. I remain skeptical of snow in Feb until proven otherwise.

    1. Agree.

      While I see a pattern shift/transition – certainly away from biblical rains and also away from very long extended periods of mild (though this week does remind me of what we had been getting a lot of) – I’m skeptical about February/March delivering anything other than brief episodes of cold of the 36 to 48 hour kind, and iffy snows, most of which will melt rather quickly.

      We shall see.

    4. I hope I’m not included there.

      I’ve been very clear about everything I’ve predicted and the reasons why. 😉

  42. I hadn’t read below where I posted my sons comment last night and see Lots of glass half empty going on here. We have had about 35 days of winter. We have about 65 days remaining. Just a thought

    And In reality, we have had a ton of followers which at least to me is half the fun

  43. Tells you something when the low travel nesr or at the Benchmark and yet rain is being talked about. Shows you the lack of cold air especially generally the coldest weeks of the year. I still think we thread the needle and get a decent storm.

    I know folks are skeptical about snow, but not sure why the cold. You can clearly see it in the long range. Also the fact that TK, WxW and SAK say it’s going to be cold and then folks just dismiss it without much to back it up is doing a disservice for they do. Just my 2-cents

  44. Just watched Cindy on ch5 ( I like her ) she thinks no snow until later Sunday & thinks Boston will see a few inches , also has it as a mix .

  45. I personally like everyone’s different takes on what is coming up longer term.

    I don’t take any outlooks to heart. Like, if I hope for a certain outcome and someone says they don’t think it will happen, that is good too. 🙂

    I do think some folks outlooks are influenced by what they prefer in the weather, as I know I do. I am guilty all summer of being biased towards any warmer solution, even if the majority of models show cooler weather.

      2. Wishcast

        That’s a great term. I wonder how many mets do that, even if subconsciously?

        Waiting on the EURO.

        I suspect it going to show a bunch of rain/mix.

    2. I find the takes Interesting and fairly consistent but individual which is absolutely not a criticism. Just an observation.

      We all have our own ways of looking at things. It’d be an awfully boring world if we all used the same looking glass. Heaven knows I have more than my share of predictable views.

  47. Thanks TK.

    Upcoming pattern looks great if you are looking for a more sustained winter weather pattern. Something we have not seen in some time, other than a few bouts of it here and there. I look at the long range models several times a week, and follow many mets on X and the American Weather New England forum. A lot of them are highlighting what WxW and TK have been saying here.

    I do understand the skepticism and the “I’ll believe it when I see it” attitude as we have been down this road before only to see the models do a complete 180 a week later. But so far things are looking good for February and this type of back loaded winter follows the typical El Nino script and has historical precedence.

    I think Joshua put it best above…keep the expectations low and you may be pleasantly surprised at what we have coming up.

  48. We are heading back north later this afternoon and spending the weekend in Jackson, NH w/out the kids. Going cross country skiing in the village tomorrow and probably stopping at Loon on the way back Sunday. Regardless what happens with this storm (northern vs southern track), I think it is going to be a nasty ride back from NH on Sunday.

    1. Oh boy. I remember many more than one of those. Please enjoy and be safe. And you know I’m smiling with memories of Jackson and holding my breath and making a wish through the covered bridge. Then stopping at Jack Frost ski shop

  51. Coventry CT total snow so far this season = 12.5″

    Coventry, CT 384 hour run total snow on the GFS so far this season = 472″

  52. Mark, I love redeveloping clippers. Just the idea alone and trying to explain it to people (not that I can very well). We haven’t had many clippers in recent years that have redeveloped off the coast. I do hope what you’re seeing on the models come to fruition.

    Hadi, I do NOT dismiss any of the great mets on this blog. I’m just expressing skepticism, and it’s not directed at them. It’s just a gut feeling. I’ll be the first person to let people know my gut feeling was wrong if it turns out to be so.

    1. Agree, I cant remember the last time we had redeveloping clipper. This one would be more of a “Manitoba Mauler” as it is coming straight from the NW.

        1. I define them by where the come from:

          Alberta Clipper
          Manitoba Mauler
          Saskatchewan Screamer

          As for the current storm, not changing what I had on my blog yesterday when I said “At this point, it’s safe to say that plowable snow is likely for a good chunk of the region.” I’ll come up with numbers when I’m at work early in the morning and will probably write a blog post at some point tomorrow. However, as my boss said in an email this morning “this more like a storm in late March than late January due to the lack of cold air to start.”

    2. I hear ya, totally understand. I just get frustrated bc people make comments without any justification as to why. And these mets are smart so they know what they are doing

  53. Just got an email from Dick’s Sporting Goods saying” Heavy Snow is in your forecast…Gear up now!”

    So it’s happening folks 🙂

  54. 12z Euro is north too, along with the R/S line.

    It’s also got the retrograding coastal storm next weekend the GFS is seeing…

    1. Sure feels like this opportunity is getting flushed down the toilet!!! Hope not, but it sure has that feel to it. 🙂

      I just hope that it intensifies rapidly and provides the dynamics for some decent cooling to provided SNOW! Would love to
      see the NWS eat crow!

  57. It is early, but so far the 18Z HRRR looks very much like the 12Z NAM. Will the HRRR end up colder than most models?

    Ahhh, probably not, but one can hope.

  58. I was just recalling my first year in college and being excited about a good winter ….. 1985-1986. Nope, nothing.

    January 1986 for Boston saw 8 days in the 50s and a monthly snowfall total of a whopping 0.8 inch. BAHAHA! That entire winter sucked from the perspective of a snow lover. 🙂 And that is back when I cared more about it, when a sucky winter actually bothered me. Now, nothing does. I just take it as it comes. 🙂

    We had a little more than the 0.8 inch Boston had out in the suburbs, but I don’t recall Lowell’s total. If you see this comment SAK, how much snow did Lowell get in January 1986?

    2. Because you’re the excitable dog that just wants to run around in the snow so you get depressed when models don’t deliver. We’ve seen models this far out say a blockbuster is coming and fizzle out. The opposite can be true. I’m still thinking 3ish inches for boston, and this is coming from someone who has been trying to wish away any snow chance.

      1. 🙂 🙂 🙂
        Excitable dog??? That bad, eh?

        I think I’d eat my old hockey skates if Logan comes in at 3 inches or more. 🙂 Well maybe not, but I’d be surprised.

        Here are 2 things that concern me:

        1. Seems to want to track father North than previous
        2. Doesn’t seem to be as intense as previous

        That spells disaster for snow accumulations on the coastal plain.

        Remember the rain in Spain falls mainly on the plain.
        Oh wait, wrong country, but ahh hell it applies here in MA
        as well, in he Winter at least.

      2. It’s going to come down to the temperature again & any delays would be critical . Just about all the tv Mets I’ve seen today have 3 inches for Boston & less down my way . I believe it’s inland as I mentioned earlier this week that will see the higher amounts.

  64. Want to talk anomalous warmth, well, go to our nation’s capital. It hit 81F this afternoon. Shattered the January record. Obliterated is more like it as hitting 80F or above this early has never happened in the history of record-keeping. The previous earliest 80-degree temperature in Washington occurred Feb. 21, 2018. In an average year, Washington doesn’t post its first 80-degree high until March 28.

    1. Hyperbole is usually not warranted with records set in the weather department. In this case, however, it is. This is an incredible record.

    3. This is indeed, by any metric, an astonishing record. We’ve talked about how the “torch” would not materialize in SNE, but it doesn’t mean some incredibly warm air for this time of year hasn’t infiltrated much of the CONUS.

  65. And so while parts of the world are still quite cold – Scandinavia, parts of Russia, for example – there are many regions right now experiencing anomalous warmth. Many parts of Europe, for example, are experiencing a surge of warmth. Record daily highs across parts of France with temps in the 70s, in Spain, Austria, Switzerland, all well into the 60s. Obviously not good for the ski areas, which suffered an absolutely awful season last year. This season has been better at times, but it’s been a very mixed bag.

    1. Heading to Alpe d’Huez in early March for skiing snd hoping we get a pattern flip like last year. We went to the French Alps (Les Arcs) last March and it hadn’t snowed in 7 weeks and it started to dump a week before we went and it didn’t stop.

  66. Breaking with weather for a second if I may. Did someone here mention my life with the Walter boys! JPD maybe?

      1. Ohhhh thank you, Ace. I liked the first episode and thst usually gets me hooked. Do we wait over a year for season 2?

        1. Unfortunately yes. With the writers strike, the wait for the next season of these shows is gut wrenching

              1. Well. Marc Blucas …the Walter dad… is one if my favorite hallmark actors. And as I recall you and Mrs Ace liked girl meets world. So I’m right there with the sappy stuff.

                I’ll check firefly lane. Thanks.

                1. The mom was Donna from Suits (also a great show if u like law shows). Firefly Lane has Kathryn Heigel who is very good

    2. Was not I.
      I started watching it and it was initially interesting, but it quickly got predictable and sappy. I stopped watching it . couldn”t take it any more

      I highly recommend Wednesday on netflix. Jenna Ortega is out of her mind good in this!!!

      Also Masters of the air debuts on apple today. looks ourstanding.

      of course my taste may not be that of others.

  67. Spain’s heat has been “historic,” with some areas recording temperatures of more than 28C (or 82F), shattering records that had been on the books for a very long time.

    Even places well above sea level like Fredes, Valencia, some 1,200 meter above sea level (~3,937 feet) got to 22C (72F).

  68. Adding some commentary from yesterday’s discussion about classic New England snowstorms. To me, this also means those storms are predicted days in advance with very little change in forecast. We haven’t had one of those in a long time. Maybe it’s a product of too much info, too many models, and just too many cooks in the kitchen making forecasts, but it would be nice to have a no doubter without the constant changes up to the event.

    1. For starters, it would help if there were not 5000 YouTube channels and 6000 Facebook pages with “forecasts” by people who have no experience, no schooling, no anything, except a fascination for “breaking exciting weather news”, and that these get so thoroughly shared on social media and treated as if they are legit forecasts by “the weather people”. 🙁

      So many good forecasts by good forecasters out there with limited audience.

  69. The last one of those classic New England snowstorms you mentioned with little change to the forecast I could remember was the Blizzard of 2013.

  70. The 4 biggest in 2015 were very well forecast systems with little adjustment. The big one we had a couple years ago was similar.

  71. I remember the March 13 1993 storm was forecast days in advance. But like Ace, I know some changed as storm was just about on us but more were just the typical New England snowstorm forecast in advance.

    1. A former meteorologist here in CT said on Wednesday the big kahuna is coming on Saturday and it did. He was referring to the March 1993 Superstorm.

      1. My in-laws were visiting friends in London. News reached them even there. They called several days ahead to see what was happening. They were concerned about their home in Charleston.

  72. DC official high temp: 80.

    The 81 shows up because of the C to F conversion but it’s not correct.

    They made the adjustment on the report.

    Baltimore’s high temp was 79 and did not break a record.

  76. One thing is certain. We’re in for quite a bit more precipitation. It looks like another inch or so. It’s been quite the rainy period the last 8 months.

  78. WAW hoisted for a lot of the area once again not the coast. I know a certain someone who’s happy.

    6 Z NAM

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2024012700&fh=60&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    6zGFS

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2024012700&fh=69&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    0z CmC

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2024012700&fh=69&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    0z ICON-putrid

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=icon&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2024012700&fh=66&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    0z UKMET

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmet&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2024012700&fh=72&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    0z EURO

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2024012700&fh=78&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

  79. So looking over it all, I think we have an initial burst of snow and then a lull with a rain flip to snow.

    My numbers are- Logan 2.7, Worcester Hills -10 inches.
    Generally inside 95 2-4 range and outside 495- 6-10 and wouldn’t be surprised to some serious banding that could drop 12+ in a few spots out in the Berks, Worcester hill, Fitchburg etc.. the usual suspects. Paging Retrac 🙂

    Wild card is the banding potential that could help with intensity that would cool us enough even to the coast. Just crazy ti have that track we are talking rain.

    1. Hadi I saw your beacon! Tried to sleep in today but that hasn’t happened in 30 years. My wife had been asking me for two days if she’s going to have school on Monday. She works in Marlborough and I suggested 75% odds no.

      I think your totals are pretty good except maybe Logan cut in half but 2” is low enough to feel like it doesn’t matter anyway LOL.

      Classic elevation situation which I love out here because you can literally drive 5 miles in either direction of my house and see totals doubled or cut in half as in downtown Worcester versus Princeton.

      Surely I’ll report in!

  80. Also looking over Feb/March, the pattern looks juicy. Feb 10 through the first of week March could easily get us over our average snow.

  81. Could some of those bigger totals take a slight dip south so I could get into some of the bigger action

  82. Models in the longer range seeming to infer some blocking.

    I can see the AO and NAO projects to head towards neutral or slightly negative days from now.

  83. Hadi,

    Nice job summing it all up.

    Isn’t it time we send out the AROD BEACON!!!

    CALLING AROD!!!

    If he’s not here, sure sign of RAIN!!!!

    My thoughts on your RGEM/RDPS comments.

    As you mentioned the 850mb temps are good. Well so are
    the 925 mb temps!!! Both are at -2 to -3 C in Boston.

    I just checked the ocean temperature and it is sitting at 41.9.
    Would like it colder, but I honestly “think” this might be cold enough with that intensity precipitation. I think Boston and especially JP is mostly snow.

    Watch for Boston to Over Achieve the RGEM/RDPS snow numbers.

    And looking at the GFS, NAM and 3KM NAM I am FAR more
    optimistic about decent snow today than I was yesterday.

    I just purchased my ticket for the SNOW TRAIN!!!!!!!!

  84. It’s 28F in Quebec City, which was their low for the night.

    That says it all.

    The arctic airmass seen on the models to the north hasn’t made it to James bay, as reporting stations east of James bay are in the low 20s.

    1. Yes, we are depending upon decent intensity and dynamics As SAK said yesterday, more like a Spring Time storm set up.

      I have seen countless mid-late March and sometimes April storms WAY over achieve because the dynamics took over
      and it snowed despite what the forecasts were.

      Although this was not a big event, I remember one time
      in mid-late April on a Saturday and I was dating my now wife.
      It was a beautiful Spring day with the temp reach 64 degrees.
      We went to the drive in movie that night when it started to rain. Didn’t take too long when wet snow flakes were mixing in and then it started snowing like hell. Ended up with something like 5 inches or so. Point is, it CAN HAPPEN!!!

      THINK SNOW!!!!

  87. Putting a guess, I like locations 700 ft or so and higher to do well.

    Worcester and all elevated areas, 4-8 or more.

    And then, if the elevation is 200 ft or lower, well, it’s going to be much more difficult and precip intensity dependent.

    In this instance, I’m not big on the traditional further northwest, higher amounts. If Logan has extremely heavy precip and Lowell has light stuff, I could see Logan getting 2 and Lowell getting 1

  88. Tom makes a good point about the cold or lack thereof in Southern Quebec. This has been a feature all winter. Sure, it’s been cold enough to snow, hence the fairly big snows in that region as well as Aroostook County, Maine. But the cold up there has generally been modest at best. Where we’ve seen a real Arctic push (that didn’t last long) 10-14 days ago, it occurred in the country’s midsection. It then transported cold to us but by the time it got here it wasn’t particularly cold and it was essentially “used” cold.

  90. One thing with the 12z runs of HRRR and NAM for my area that is similar a snow to rain to snow situation. NAM more aggressive with the first round of snow for my area than HRRR. HRRR more aggressive with the end of snow for my area.
    #MESSORAMA

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