Monday January 29 2024 Forecast (7:42AM)

101 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 29 – FEBRUARY 2)

The “lazy” storm winds down today. This system was an under-performing event that had its potential thwarted by lack of cold air and lack of organization. Today, there will be some lingering aspects, such as ocean-effect snow showers from the MA South Shore to Cape Cod with minor snow accumulation, a gusty breeze across the region, and falling temperatures, so it actually feels like the middle portion of winter. Cold air becomes established and hangs around for the final 2 days of January as well on Tuesday and Wednesday, with fair weather, but some clouds at times, as weak high pressure takes control of the weather. This high drifts to the east and south by Thursday with a slight temperature moderation. Upper level low pressure drops southeastward from Canada into the US Northeast late Thursday and Friday with some unsettled weather and a trend back to colder air by the very end of the week.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Snow showers southeastern MA likely through midday with accumulations of up to 1 inch. Chance of flurries elsewhere. Highs 32-39 early, then falling gradually into the 20s from north to south. Wind NE to N 10-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partial clearing. Lows 15-22. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 27-34. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 12-19. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 31-38. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 15-22. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sun gives way to clouds. Highs 36-43. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A snow shower possible. Lows 25-32. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Possible mix/snow showers. Highs 35-42. Wind SW to variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 3-7)

Fair, seasonably cold for the February 3-4 weekend as well as February 5. Looking at potential snow or snow showers in the February 6-7 time frame as a low pressure trough moves through the region.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 8-12)

Next window of opportunity for winter precipitation comes mid to late period. Temperatures near to slightly below normal.

101 thoughts on “Monday January 29 2024 Forecast (7:42AM)”

  3. Goid morni g and thank you TK

    my “storm” rant is at the end of the previous blog post. I’ll leave it at that. My total for both parts of this non-event came to about 1 inch give or take.

    what a joke!

    1. I hear you. This winter has thus far been a disappointment.

      All I’m looking for is a glimpse of the sun. It’s been nearly a week. So, I’m playing “Here comes the sun” to make it appear as soon as possible.

      On the Lions game, one of the announcers said the Lions brought an actual lion – a male – to their 1983 divisional playoff game against the 49ers. They showed the lion on the field. It was a very brief still shot. Couldn’t tell if the beast was leashed (I’m sure he was restrained in some way?). The announcer said, “I have a lot of questions about that.”

      Ah, those were the days of my youth when crazy stuff just happened, and safety was an after-thought or so it seemed. I cannot even watch this without butterflies in my stomach from a fear of heights. It’s of men cleaning Big Ben in London in 1980. https://twitter.com/historyinmemes/status/1751630712518726121

      1. No thank you.

        The MGM casino in Las Vegas, at least the last time I was there about 15 years go, used to have 2 caged lions. It was pretty interesting seeing them there. But, I hate it when we cage animals!! Zoos and Aquariums are awful.

  6. So looks like January will fall below average for snow correct? Will need February / early March to pick up the slack, I would say February more over March in my opinion.

    2. If you go read my winter forecast for January from November 22, the forecast was for NEAR TO BELOW for January snow. 😉

        1. I think he said only a chance. My guess his response was intended for the post not from you 🙂 but the other person.

        2. Tk I could be wrong but I think old salty is correct not that it matters . February is going to have storms perfectly line up in my opinion. Thank you for todays post

  10. Today is the two-year mark of Great WHW “Death Bands/Kuchera” Storm that dumped 29.1″ of snow at NWS ~ , the second most ever in Taunton.

    I remember writing that “Death Bands” and “Kuchera” were excellent names for metal core bands!!!!! 🙂

  12. Thanks TK. Yes January looks to come in below normal. As TK eluded, it was an outside chance when he mentioned it last week. Let’s see what Feb has in store.

    RGEM has really handled things very well on multiple storms.

    1. (See above regarding January snow.)

      Yes, I’d mentioned that a recent upgrade of that model actually worked. 🙂

      1. But, awhile back (may have been even a few weeks ago) you clearly stated that January would come in above average.
        You were certain of it. 🙂 Just a friendly reminder. 🙂

    2. Indeed it has.

      Yesterday’s event was very strange and it wasn’t just the thermal profiles, it just never came together as a potent organized storm. Had it done so, I think snow totals would have been much higher, even at the coast. It was quite a disappointment.

      I got into a brief period of moderate snow where it really looked like a snow storm about 11 AM yesterday, then the strong echoes started to move away and the snow got lighter, then it got so light it switched to RAIN and it rained for
      8 hours!!! PUTRID!!!

      The the infamous phase 2 kicked in and it snowed decently for awhile, but it was so warm it didn’t accumulate much at all and then that petered out! Not much to show for it all this morning, not around here, that’s for sure.

  14. I have a delivery of medical equipment coming today. So glad I didn’t have to shovel a single thing. My rain dance worked!

  18. …….
    Woods Hill Weather
    JANUARY 10, 2024 AT 9:25 PM
    January snow…
    Boston has 3.8. Average is 14.3. They need 10.5 to reach normal. They’ll get there, then pass it IMHMO.

    La Nina doesn’t tend to have a notable impact one way or another on North America during summer, but there has been an observed trend for the middle of the country to be hottest while both coasts are a bit more seasonable or even cooler. Also, as you know, La Nina summers tend to feature an active tropical season in the Atlantic. There is no strong indication of hot & dry for New England, but it can’t be ruled out of course.
    ……

    Sure. “In my humble meteorological opinion” is synonymous with “it’s a 100% lock”.

    The statement was made based on my confidence in MJO getting to phase 7 shortly after January 25.

    It got to phase 6 (borderline 7) and stalled there.

    But at the time I felt the pattern had the potential to deliver enough to get Boston to over 14.3 for the month.

    They’ll come in at 9.2. Off by 5 inches over a 21 day forecast. Ah well. Time to give up the gig I guess. 😉

    I have NO problem pointing out something that didn’t go as I said.

    That said, my winter forecast for January posted on November 22 still did pretty well for snow. 😉

  21. No sense measuring now since some melted. I’ll guess. And those words alone bring chills having been in the army of Todd Gross weather watchers. You not only didn’t guess, you were never ever as much as 1/8 inch off. And as for temp…I still check and triple check my readings.

    Anyway. Based on my walk through around 5 am, I’d say we had two measurable inches. I’d also say we had at least an inch the never accumulated due to immediate melting upon impact. So maybe 3 altogether

    1. Thanks TK.

      I’ll take the blame as one who thought Boston would be above average for January snow, though definitely did not think this last storm would help out much. I do think there were multiple “missed opportunity” systems this month that pretty easily could’ve led to a much different picture though…

      Still think things are on track for a snowier pattern going forward, after the coming dry interlude. Remember that the “first step” of this pattern change is the California deluge, and that will get kicked off in a big way this week. Watch for California weather to become a big national story the next 7-10+ days. But this will ultimately be what leads to winter storm chances in the East beyond about 2/5…

        1. Hi WxWatcher. I do this regularly. I’ll look at it as your way of making me feel better that it isn’t just cause I’m older. And it’s always a pleasure to see you here.

    1. Despite the lower amounts, it is a picture perfect winter morning.

      PS ….i don’t think I’m doing very well remaining in a time out

  23. We’ve had some moderate bursts of snow with moderate breezes in the last hour probably making it seem worse than it truly is.

  24. With the exception of two weeks ago when we got some snow that actually stuck around for a bit, the other snow we’ve gotten this winter has been meaningless. This is NOT to say we don’t measure it. TK is correct about that. But what I will most remember from December and January is the meaninglessness of the snow. Frankly, the measly amounts of snow we got in 2012 were more meaningful, at least in January. We also had several nights during which we got into the upper single digits in Boston that year.

    Has this kind of thing happened before in December and January? Yes, many times. That still doesn’t make it less frustrating for someone who likes winter and dreads the idea of a pretty much guaranteed hot and humid summer.

    What has frustrated me the most this winter is the combination of copious amounts of rain AND relatively mild temperatures with practically no sustained cold. Again, this has definitely happened before, but it makes it no less annoying.

    Lack of cold (of any kind, really) is omnipresent throughout much of Europe and is similar to last year (though even warmer) in that it’s of the sustained kind, as I mentioned in posts yesterday. Here, sustained means several weeks, which is very unusual in January. They’re canceling ski races in Garmisch and Chamonix. With temps in the 50s, even at elevations above 1,200 meters (~3,950 feet) it’s simply not possible.

    1. I hear you big time. Pretty pathetic winter so far.
      We shall see what February and March bring.

      At this point, I want March to be mild so I can start fishing earlier in the year.

      Earliest I have started has been April 7th. Would like too make it Mar 21st-31st or somewhere in there. 🙂 No sense going too early as the fish simply won’t be biting at all.

        1. What fun is fishing without catching???? 🙂

          It is a rare day I fish and NOT catch. 🙂
          However, I don’t always catch the desired species. 🙂 🙂 🙂

          1. Sad thing is, I don’t eat the fish. I probably should not be fishing, but at my age, I’m not about to stop now. Not many more years I’ll be able to go out and fish. Have to make hay while I can.

    2. I enjoyed reading your post. It opens a lot of doors for serious discussion.. And before I say more……I want to be clear that my comments are not directed at anyone but are thoughts I has while reading Joshua’s post

      We can say that we have had storms like this before. Or we can say we will have more severe storms next year. But what we are not saying and what Harvey clearly said in his lecture on warming is that those are now the exceptions. This is becoming the rule.

      We have been warned of exactly this for decades. The only thing that surprises me is that some are surprised. And it scares the heck out of me. We blame the AO or the negative AO or the C-3PO while in truth it’s time to look in the mirror for the real blame. Again….that is a broad statement and NOT directed at any one individual.

      Also, and not really related, but something that I was wondering about this morning. I know our models are all over the place. Is it because they have no real way to take the warming into account?

      Harvey pointed out specifically and with examples that yes we had snows in the past but with exception the snow stayed. Now we have snow and the air warms and takes it away.

      Back to my self imposed time out for guessing at the snow totals here.

  25. Silly question….

    let’s say the thermal profile is such that it allows SNOW to reach the surface, but it is not cold enough to allow it to accumulate, but it had been warm and the ground temperature is quite warm. SO let’s say an equivalent of 3 inches of snow fell, but there was NEVER any on the ground.

    Does that count as 3 inches OR does it count as 0
    In my twisted mind, it should count as 0 since none of it
    was ever seen on the ground. Now if it accumulated 1/2 inch in a heavier burst and then that melted and it continued to snow, but no more was on the ground, then that would be 1/2 inch.

    Thank you.

    1. The last part, yes 0.5

      If nothing accumulated at any point enough to measure 0.1 minimum, it’s recorded as a trace.

      1. Hmmmm Interesting. We were typing at about he same time

        I don’t understand. To me it’s kind of like, if a tree falls in the woods and no one hears it, did the tree really fall??

        Sooooooo since I appear to be on a roll this morning, I’ll ask why that inch that fell but melted immediately isn’t in some way counted

        1. It’s a fuzzy area. Had many discussions about it with the MA State Climatologist. But he said that’s how it’s done, so I said “ok!”. 🙂

          Basically it’s this…

          The definition of measurable snow for the purpose of climate statistics is snow that can be measured, physically.

          If it falls, accumulates, then melts, it’s “measurable”, whether someone measured it or not. If it falls and melts upon contacting the surface, and therefore cannot be physically measured, it is not considered measurable.

          The most important statistic regarding it anyway is the melted precipitation total, which can be measured either way. 🙂

          1. Hey. This is great. Thank you. While I’m not a fan of it’s always been done that way, this makes sense. In truth, if it falls and melts immediately as a good deal of yesterday did….at least here…there is no way to measure which leaves only a guess. And I was schooled to be precise so my “guess” this am is still giving me chills.

            What about when it compacts? That was another issue yesterday. My uneducated guess is a person measuring religiously measuring will get an accurate measurement.

            TK I know you have a busy day. I’m just wondering so please no worry about an answer. Thank you for the above

    2. That is exactly what I described. And if the answer is that it doesn’t count, I’m surprised but would love to hear reasoning. If three inches fell, whether it accumulated does not matter. Three inches fell.

  26. Joshua – it could always be worse. It least this isn’t the blowtorch winter of 2011-12. Boston had 6.8″ in January, 0.9″ in February, and 0.6″ in March, with the least measurable being 0.1″ on March 10.

    Logan topped 50 6 times in January (60 on January 7), 7 times in February, then there was March with 11 days over 60, 7 days over 70, and an 83 on March 22. The month itself was 8.4 degrees above normal.

    1. I went for a nice summertime walk around Lake Quannapowitt in Wakefield on March 22 2012.

      All that was missing….leaves on the trees.

  28. Tickets for the SB are $9,000-55,000. That’s before taxes, fees or anything else plus air flights, all ground transportation, hotel, food, and beverages.

  30. Thanks TK.

    I’m calling it 2″ total in Coventry. Started out as snow, changed to rain/mix, and back to light snow last night. Had a solid/compressed 1″ covering of everything on the ground this morning.

    Here at the office in Manchester (lower elevation closer to Hartford), there is nothing on the ground.

    Models look pretty benign for the Northeast over the coming week. Not too cold and not much precip. A potentially sizable storm looks to form over the Southeast around Feb 5 but all indications are that should remain well south of us and head out to sea. We wait for hopefully more exciting times after 2/5…

  32. The GFS and especially the Euro, on the 12z runs today, are backing off some on how cold it might be this weekend. The trof sharpening to an eventual closed low are more projected to be further east than yesterday. Much more of a side swipe.

    This is nuts. By Wed/Thurs, with the way things have cold, this batch of cold will miss up completely thru northern ME and into the Maritimes.

  36. My KNMI friends in the Netherlands haven’t thrown in the towel yet on winter. It’s too early to do so. But, they’ve indicated that there’s no sign of a wintry pattern ahead. In fact, what they’re observing – this of course applies to Northwestern Europe and not here – is that the stable trend of above average temps and no meaningful snow, which began ~10 days ago, will continue for the foreseeable future with perhaps a couple of colder days thrown in.

    Crocus flowers appear earlier and earlier over time. Late January is now fairly typical. When I lived in the Netherlands, mid February was the earliest. The February school vacation, which is always mid to late February there, was named 75 years ago after the crocus.
    Pictures of crocus flowers taken today: https://twitter.com/Groenehartstoc1/status/1751950396728230000
    And in Germany. https://twitter.com/fotoaufnahme/status/1751654856119484609

  38. That snow band means business in central Marshfield. It’s narrow, nothing at my dad’s place in Pembroke.

      1. It was very windy, so that did the trick at high tide. Probably some serious splash over that ran into the village.

    1. The first 2 comments after his post, the 2nd of which is from the meteorologist who made the post are kind, well ….. would be more of the same.

      At least we have a lot of practice on the “storms that have to provide their own cold” scenario.

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