Tuesday January 30 2024 Forecast (7:38AM)

143 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 30 – FEBRUARY 3)

A quieter interlude in our weather, but not a whole lot of sun to speak of the next few days. An inversion today will keep the sky generally cloudy with limited breaks in the clouds that may allow a glimpse of sun in a few locations. There is also a slight onshore component to the wind bringing a little bit of frozen precipitation of the very light variety to the region this morning. In a few locations this is actually falling not as frozen precipitation but freezing drizzle that is causing a little slickness on untreated surfaces. This breaks up a bit more for partial sun at times on Wednesday. A low pressure trough drops out of Canada and brings a few rain showers later Thursday as it turns milder, then a few snow showers early Friday as it turns colder again. Finally, a sunnier Saturday is likely as high pressure builds in.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Patchy snow grains or freezing drizzle this morning. Highs 27-34. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 14-21. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 31-38. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 15-22. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of afternoon rain showers. Highs 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers possible evening, snow showers possible overnight. Lows 28-35. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers in the morning, then partly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 20-27. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 4-8)

Fair, seasonably cold February 4-5. Looking at potential snow or snow showers in the February 6-7 time frame as a low pressure trough moves through the region before fair weather returns to end the period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 9-13)

Next window of opportunity for winter precipitation comes mid to late period. Temperatures near to slightly below normal.

143 thoughts on “Tuesday January 30 2024 Forecast (7:38AM)”

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.

    woke up to a freash coating of ocean effect snow. Everthing is coated with snow again. Temp only got down to 31

    I am still waiting fir a real snow storm as we are about to head into February. Putrid Winter so far.
    If something does’t materiakize soon, I will be in full SPRING mode.

    1. byw, I have yet to wear a Winter coat this disgusting Winter, even on that cold day earlier where high was 21. That day wasn’t even close to cold. Only needed a heavy jersey and light jacket and was perfectly comfortable.

      I think I have a little of Joshua in me

      3. I have not worn a winter coat in years. Even when I sit out at night. But I have a heat source then. It’s not being able to sit out that I miss. It’s been slim pickings since last spring

    1. Yes.

      Glad they did because they have the Pacers tonight on a back to back, which will be its own challenge.

  5. I had to fix two sections of the blog post because I had a preliminary version written last night and an updated version written this morning and the older one got published that left off me ocean effect snow and freezing drizzle. That will be around this morning in some areas.

  8. Thanks, TK.

    Temp only went down to 31.7F. But the streak of 6 frostless nights in a row is officially over here in downtown Boston.

    Have not had the space heater on once this winter. Even last winter I did put it on twice during the first week of February, though that was it.

    Going forward, I don’t expect to have to use it. And so I put it away to make space.

    Don’t worry, I haven’t put the shovel away, though I’m tempted to.

    1. FYI, my 31.7F reading was early this morning, first thing when I got up at 5:50am. It has dropped since then. It’s 28.4F now.

  9. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2024013000&fh=93&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2024013000&fh=96&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2024013000&fh=99&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sn10_012h-imp&rh=2024013000&fh=102&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    I don’t know if this is a disturbance or an inverted trof.

    Its on the GFS. Not on the Euro, and beyond the 84 hr time range of the NAM.

    For late Friday afternoon into the first half of Friday night.

      1. Tom also look at the surface winds and 850mb winds. I think
        this may be good old fashion Ocean Effect snow. 🙂

    1. 5.1 off the average is honestly not bad considering the El Niño driven MJO unfriendly pattern.

      Second snowiest January in 5 years.

  13. Walked the shore and there was a layer of frozen rain and some snow underfoot. And of course I had the wrong type of walking shoes on for the conditions. Went 3 miles and it was not fun. The temps have dropped since early this AM.

        1. It looks like that “may” happen, but clouds from the West might cut it off at the pass. 🙂 We shall see. No signs of clearing here yet. 🙂

  17. Thanks TK.

    The American Storm
    @BigJoeBastardi
    2h

    CFSv2 getting more clarity on the potential for Severity for the Feb into March period ( straddling the months imo from Feb 10 on) No retreat no surrender from those ideas

    https://x.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1752338253661733307?s=20

    Posting this more for the CFSv2 model depictions than Mr Bastard’s thoughts….but it’s yet another model showing the same thing for mid Feb and beyond….

        1. ….as TK and WxW have been saying for some time.

          I know you don’t believe them or any of the other comments from respected meteorologists I post on here who actually study this stuff for a living. But I will take their word for it, as well as the model guidance consensus I am seeing.

          I for one am pretty confident on a pattern change. Does it guarantee us a lot of snow? No, there could always be be more missed opportunities in the works. But I remain optimistic for our chances as we move into Feb. Still a LONG way to go with winter.

      2. To be fair, SSK, you have been wrong with two of our three storms. And it’s all right to have a view based on gut feeling, but repeating it endlessly is tough to take for those who are snow starved. And as an aside, I replied to your comment to me two nights ago. It was uncalled for

    2. We have a ski trip planned to Palisades Tahoe March 13-17. So far this year has been sub-par for snow in the Sierras. While I do not want to see bad flooding, the mountains really could use a good dump of snow to be able to expand terrain. Snowpack is well below norms, a far cry from where they were a year ago.

  21. John Kassell
    @kassellonx
    2h

    The idea of a pattern flip, again, to colder, snowier opportunities across the eastern US is reflected in LR guidance, around or shortly after mid-month driven by a Greenland Blockage regime and western ridging. Extended guidance suggests that this continues through mid-March, before turning over to Spring normals in 2024. Appears that this stretch (mid-Feb to mid-March) will be the last chance for winter 2023-24 prospects.

    https://x.com/kassellonx/status/1752343717103485281?s=20

    1. Good, a lot of hype for colder snowier. That’s great, but let’s SEE if any of that materializes. I’ve seen this movie before and I didn’t like it. Hopefully, the plot has changed this time. 🙂

        1. Glad you have turned the corner and agree that you would like to see the plot change to a colder/snowier pattern!!

          1. Mark I don’t dislike snow & actually would love a storm this winter that would hit us hard .

            1. LOL. It is only one run but wouldnt be surprised in future runs if we start/continue to see some storm signals emerge around that time frame.

              1. Hope so. I remember a nice Valentine’s Day storm in the 60s and I believe there was a DOOZEY way back. 🙂

                1. 2007 was a monster as well. My mother had nearly three feet of snow in Upstate NY and I had about 4″ of pure sleet in Coventry. It was a disaster trying to shovel that stuff.

  23. Whether its mid February, or next winter or the next winter after that, we will see above average snowfall with big individual hits.

    I get it, last winter and so far this winter, I am at the point of, let me see this get to the medium and short range first. But, I am open to the idea that in 10 days, we might be looking at a threat having made it to the medium or end of the short range.

      2. LOL.

        I don’t discount it turning cold and/or snowy come mid February, but I get the hesitancy to believe it given last winter and so far, this winter.

  25. Tossing carefully maybe scientific prognostications just because it hasn’t happened yet is risky.

    It’s not unusual AT ALL for an El Niño winter to have a basic no show first half and much better second half as far as winter storms with frozen precip for SNE is concerned. The Mets here (and on our local media) say this all the time. We’re not just making it up. 😉

    Yes, time will tell, but using the best info we have, this is what we see.

    Anybody who “cancels” winter based on what had happened at far, or “just a feeling” is not really saying anything with a foundation. 😉 There’s an actual scientific process involved. 🙂

    2. I definitely believe what you’re saying is based on science, TK. And I am a true believer in science.

      But the irrational side in me – which isn’t crazy, rather it’s based on gut feelings which in turn are caused by precedents – remains skeptical.

      1. The sports analogy would be, I think the Celtics and the Bruins.

        You have to worry the Celts will get to the ECF or NBA Finals but won’t win it and the Bruins will win the President’s trophy and get bounced in the 1st round, even if the parameters of both teams are different than last year. (Porzingis/Holliday and no aging 2 centers for the Bruins)

      1. You are 100% correct. Where I lived in Millis at the time, we had two 2 footers. 24 inches on 2/11 and 26 inches on 2/24-2/25 or so. That is the storm where it snowed 100 consecutive hours at Logan.

        Was skiing with Roland Boucher, former channel 7 Meteorologist, at Killington that day. What a ride home. that was, but fortunately he had a 4-wheel drive jeep so had no issues. I had left my car at his house in Natick. Had to shovel it out and then drive home to Millis where I had to shovel out the driveway before I could get my car in. Fun times!!! LOVED IT!!!

        Went skiing at Mt. Wachusetts during part of the 2nd storm on Tuesday, 2/25, when it started on the Monday. 🙂

        I’ll never forget those 2!!! Totally Awesome events!!!

        1. Btw, there was another storm that year in early March sometimes. Not nearly as big but briefly impactful with some white out conditions. Only 6 inches on that one.

          The Winter storms were explained to me as a shift Eastward in the mean trough. 🙂

  28. I was headed to pick my granddaughter up to take to the barn but the roads are getting icy. 146 out here had a multi car accident. Sutton PD said the road is all ice. Unfortunately school bus round one is just getting going.

  29. The projected low is 27 for Boston tonight I believe . JJ I agree & if I may add a nice two day event would be a bonus

  31. There was mention of 2 big snow storms in February, 1969
    So I was thinking, was the Winter of 1968-1969 an El Nino
    Winter? Sure enough it was, a moderate El Nino. Not sure what this year is.

    https://ibb.co/0Zf72Xm

        2. It’s hard to tell whether Mark was praying for snow or hire safety as you dance on the roof. Maybe it’s both 😉

  34. 167 consecutive hours of cloudy skies now at BDL. Well that post was 5 hours ago so I guess we are up to 173. No sun in a week. Incredible.

    Bob Maxon
    @bobmaxon
    5h

    Not that you’re keeping track or anything, but its been a week, almost to the hour since it was mostly clear or scattered clouds at Bradley. So, we have that! #greystreet #allclouds #whereisthesun

    https://x.com/bobmaxon/status/1752353963846824100?s=20

  38. February 1969 was also a banner month for snow in the White Mountains. I recall reading about this when I was up at the top of the mountain in the summer of 2014, cooking for the crew of meteorologists and scientists.

    1. You ain’t kidding!!!

      We went skiing at Tenney Mt. In Plymouth NH after that first big one.

      https://libguides.library.noaa.gov/weather-climate/synoptic-map

      and there was so much snow they almost had to clear under the chair lifts to allow the chairs to run. What a day of skiing!!
      My wife to be and I were on a T-Bar and near the top of the lift she lost balance and lost her skis and fell feet first into the snow! She almost disappeared before I could pull her out.
      The snow was unbelievably deep. And Tenney didn’t get the most of it. I believe Wildcat received 8 feet of snow if my
      memory serves me well.

      1. Yikes. That is a bit scary.

        T-bars. Do they still have them. My younger brother used to love dumping me off of one. Got even many times but a fond memory now.

  39. I was at 35F in the wee hours of the morn and now at 26 and probably headed toward 24, the same as TK has for Boston.

  41. Update…

    There’s a 100% chance of weather for the rest of the winter. 🙂

    Also, Boston to Cape Cod may be in for a little snowy surprise 1 or 2 times between February 2 & 6. Something to keep an eye out for going forward.

    1. Anything to do with what Tom posted from the GFS earlier????
      Inquiring minds want to know.

      100% chance of weather?

      I like to say, for the rest of Winter there will be weather, whether you like it or not!

      1. Yes, something like that.

        Just reminds me of things I’ve seen before. We’ll see how it pans out.

  44. One area that has had no shortage of snow this year is southern Alaska including Anchorage. After a recent 17″ storm, they are already over 100″ of snow on the season in late January and are in the top 5 snowiest seasons ever. They have a legitimate shot at breaking their all-time record of 134.5″ this season.

    Unfortunately they are dealing with building and roof collapses, and school and business closures with a nearly 40″ base of heavy dense snow on the ground.

    https://news.yahoo.com/video-now-pandemic-snow-anchorage-210900265.html

  45. St. Valentine’s Day and Ash Wednesday are the same day this year. Easter Sunday is March 31.

      1. This only miles from where the barn is. But it wasn’t easy. I always feel badly when I can’t get my granddaughter to the barn. I was actually warming my car when my youngest came downstairs to show me this

        1. I had to turn around this AM on my way to work. Right around the corner from my house, a car had slid off the road and hit a utility pole which was hovering at a 45 degree angle across the road. Any roadway that was untreated in our area this am had some black ice.

          I am surprised though that a major road like 146 would have had these issues. especially in the middle of the day.

          1. Oddly 146 has more shutdowns than I’d think too. I’m not sure who is responsible for treating. I think it is a state road but not positive on that either. Although the roads iced up here quickly. And I know there’s a driver shortage.

            I won’t drive on it. And I used to race cars. But I was young and stupid then. Now I’m old and only marginally smarter.

  47. We are under a Possible Sun Exposure Watch for tomorrow. Remember, as unusual as it looks, don’t stare at it for long periods. 🙂

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