Friday February 2 2024 Forecast (8:05AM)

135 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 2-6)

It’s cloudy ….. again. (If you get the reference, give yourself a high-five). Happy Groundhog Day everybody. We’ve been living the movie in our own way lately, waking up day after day to a blanket of clouds as we have had nothing to mix up the atmosphere this week – a very stagnant pattern. However, things start to change today, but you’ll need some patience still. First, a cold front slides through the region from north to south and clouds continue to dominate. They may break at times for a touch of sun here and there as we go through the day, but any of those breaks will be limited. A wave of low pressure developing on the front as it pushes southward will slide eastward along it and clip Outer Cape Cod with a little rain early today, and behind this front some instability will create a few rain and snow showers in the region today into this evening. These will have limited impact, but wet ground left behind by them can freeze up on untreated surfaces tonight, so keep that in mind if you have plans to be out at all. Improvement will be a little bit slow to take place, especially in eastern areas, on Saturday, as we continue to see some additional clouds on a north northeast wind, especially along the coast and over Cape Cod where a few snow showers may occur. Otherwise, do expect to see more sun to the west, and eventually more to the east, as we move through the day Saturday. Sunday looks like the first fully sunny day in quite some time, with a seasonable chill that nobody will care about – just because it’s sunny finally! Fair weather will also continue into early next week, but by Tuesday, there may be an exception. A blocking pattern is evolving and this will put high pressure over the northeastern US and southeastern Canada, and force a large low pressure area moving through the Southeast off into the Atlantic well south of New England early next week. This system will have a large circulation, and by Tuesday, the combination of this system and the high to the north will send a northeasterly air flow into our region, potentially resulting in some ocean-effect snow showers in eastern areas, favoring southeastern MA / Cape Cod .. something to watch for now as it’s still several days away.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Brief rain Cape Cod area. Scattered rain/snow showers anywhere late morning on. Highs 37-44. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouds linger. Lows 20-27. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Most clouds near the coast with Cape Cod snow shower chances. Partly sunny elsewhere. Highs 33-40. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 16-22. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 32-39. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 17-23. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind N 5-15 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 18-25. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Potential coastal snow showers favoring Cape Cod. Highs 31-38. Wind NE 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 7-11)

A blocking pattern will be in place keeping high pressure to our west and north while a large ocean storm spins to our southeast. A north to northeast air flow here will keep it chilly. Enough northeasterly component may induce ocean effect snow showers any day from February 7 to 8, favoring Cape Cod and MA South Shore. A weakening of the blocking later in the period allows more eastward movement of systems and brings potential unsettled weather to our region by February 10 or 11.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 12-16)

Blocking weakens and we see 1 or 2 storm chances by mid February. Temperatures near to slightly below normal.

135 thoughts on “Friday February 2 2024 Forecast (8:05AM)”

    1. 100th day Monday Captain, I think your district is the same.

      I figure they are on about day 40 in Newton.

      I joke, but I actually feel for all sides in that situation. Its tough to watch it and I really am thankful for the seeming harmony in Marshfield and other districts.

      1. Yup, 100 here in Middleborough on Monday as well.

        I agree with you, Tom. Middleborough is a great place to work and live.

  4. Thanks TK !

    16 weeks of winter go !!

    Then straight to 90F from 40F after Memorial Day, no matter what the groundhog thinks. 🙂

      1. I’m very jaded from the April and May Spring experience so close to the ocean. Its awful.

        🙂 🙂 🙂

  6. Hey, I just realized, we get an EXTRA day of Winter this year being that 2024 is a leap year and February has 29 days this year!!!!

  11. TK, first, I’m sending positive thoughts your Mom’s way as well as to you and your family.

    Second, thank you again for your forecasts and explanations.

  13. As another gray day unfolds I’m beginning to see the outside world in an almost monochromatic way. It’s weird.

    1. Very interesting. I am a huge proponent of medical marijuana. I am ashamed by this country that it legalizes Oxys and morphine, etc that create the need for multiple other prescription drugs to counteract their side effects and does not legalize medical marijuana.

  19. Happy Candlemas everyone!

    If winter ended today at Logan:

    1. 9.0” = 1936-37
    2. 9.2” = 2023-24*
    3. 9.3” = 2011-12

    Not to mention that neither Punx Phil nor Ms. G saw their shadows.

    1. That is really tough situation. Belmont is pushing for an 8.? Million override and cited the fact Newton didn’t pass its override as an example of what happens. Teachers by contract cannot strike. I think…but am not positive ….they will all pay a penalty. I’ve never voted for an override but I also know towns are not getting the funds they used to. And I know too that teachers have taken the brunt of so much since Covid.

  22. Agree with Vicki on medical marijuana, at least for some uses. But it’s largely unregulated in the U.S. We regulate prescription drugs much more than we do medical marijuana. And that’s a problem, in my view.

    The FDA doesn’t get involved, because federally the substance is illegal. This is too bad, because the FDA could pursue legitimate studies to analyze the clinical effectiveness and safety of marijuana.

    In the current wild west scenario what you wind up with is a hodgepodge of shoddy regulations, which lead to confusion, overuse (certainly recreationally – for example, the public should not be constantly exposed to the odor as much as it is, which is truly everywhere here in the U.S. in urban areas where it’s legal), diversion (we allow too much to be purchased by individuals, who then are likely to re-sell).

    I’m NOT a fan of bans on pretty much anything. BUT I am a fan of pragmatic regulation. America doesn’t do nearly enough regulation when it comes to things like marijuana or, say, gambling. When we open things up, it’s as if our impulse is to go hog wild.

    I lived in a country where pragmatism mixed with a heavy dose of regulation is pervasive: From gambling (allowed, but with numerous restrictions in place), to prostitution (allowed, but regulated at all levels, from health to tax law), to abortion (allowed, but term limits are very strict, with late term only permitted under exceptional circumstances) to marijuana (see my article).

  26. TK – prayers for your mom. Hope that all resolves quickly. Another sign of spring – Cardinal chirping can be heard at sunrise and the other birds are slowly awakening. We are turning the corner towards summer

  28. Add CT Chuckles to the list of groundhogs that did not see his shadow this morning and is predicting an early Spring.

    Take it with a grain of salt though as I have read that his accuracy is only 40%. So in reality, this means a 60% chance of having another 6 weeks of winter 🙂

    1. And in fairness to the groundhog, I doubt the Lutz Museum here in Manchester (where Chuckles lives) is giving him access to the long range weather models.

      1. I should add further that this is Chuckles XI. The previous 10 Chuckles are deceased and this latest one has very little forecasting experience.

    1. I looked at the evolution of that system. Pretty funky.

      Sorry but I am not very excited about what’s ahead. I refuse to get sucked in by the hype this time. When it’s cold and snowy, then SHOW ME!!! 🙂 🙂 🙂

    1. Love Rob’s forecasts. Not sure if he reads here. I …along with others I’m sure….did give him the url

  34. Changes to the Cone of Uncertainty (Part 2)

    I think it’s sort of official since my last post on this topic. The Cone will undergo changes in the 2024 hurricane season. The new Cone, once it reaches landmass in the continental US, will display display areas of Watches and Warnings. Shown below is the new Cone utilizing Ian’s Cone (2022).

    https://i.imgur.com/NUeCknv.jpg

    https://i.imgur.com/UnNZJ7Y.png

    As stated, this will start in mid-August. I assume this will be for the Atlantic and Pacific. (One thing that struck me is that it looks aesthetically messy.)

  35. I might be close with my 23″ snowfall prediction for PVD. Mid month might change the 23″ prediction.

  37. Mark, what you wrote could be a great bumper sticker:

    I’ll stick with the data and not some rodent #ihategroundhogday

    Definitely the funniest thing I’ve seen today.

      1. Mark has had me laughing literally out loud for days.

        We have a resident groundhog. He eats ticks and grubs and we have an abundance of both.

        1. I do not usually like the word literally …it’s a bit like saying more perfect. But laugh out loud is so common I thought I should add to it 🙄

      2. I hate those little buggers!!! They have caused Thousands of dollars worth of damage to my house, not too mention scaring my wife to death when they got into the house!!!!

  42. Decent day temperature wise today . I’ve been doing appointments since 8am with no coat , just heavy sweatshirt, loving how it’s not freezing outside .

      1. I get a sense on a day like today of total nothingness outside. There have been too many days like this. Thus far – and I know we have a long way to go with possible changes ahead – this winter has been a great big non-event.

        Just checked in with my British and Dutch weather pals for updates. Do they see change ahead? Not really. By mid-month they expect it to turn a bit colder (it’s now above to well above average there), but all in all a steady pattern of blah weather over there this month. Does this necessarily apply to us in the Northeastern U.S.? No. However, our weather pattern and theirs have correlated quite a bit since early December. It’s remarkable how much so, with our weather impacting them rather than vice versa (that part of course fits with the way jet streams move).

        1. This is the opposite of what John Homenuk is saying in his post above (see me post from 12:55). Retrograding Greenland block in tandem with ridging into the Arctic Ocean as predicted by the ECMWF would support prolonged periods of cold, stormy weather in both the US and Europe.

          1. We’ll see about that. I have heard this stuff oh so many times before, only for it NEVER come to fruition.

            Don’t get me wrong, I hope he is correct, but color me
            I’ll believe it when I see it.

    3. This scene is even funnier in the context of earlier scenes where everyone was making jokes except for Mary.

  45. CPC outlook continues to reflect my winter forecast in general, but with the changes taking place a little more slowly than prognosticated back in November. (Nothing unusual here, hah!)

  47. Quick mom update…

    Pneumonia confirmed. Treatment underway.

    So far other tests (not sure which ones are done and which ones are pending still) are negative.

    I do know that an x-ray on an area of pain in the leg is negative for a blood clot but they are doing a more thorough test for DVT just to rule out a deeper-located one.

    She’s alert, tired, resting.

  49. Mark, in no way do I wish to contradict what you’re saying or what the mets who you mentioned are saying about future changes this month.

    They might all be right, which I hope.

    Nonetheless, I have respect for the KNMI folks in the Netherlands and the Met Office in Britain. Both entities never hype anything. They’re about as no nonsense as one can get. They have cited “signals” which suggest changes ahead by around the middle of the month, but: 1. Mostly subtle and not a big departure from the current pattern (so, slightly to modestly colder but that’s relative to the current extended mild regime); 2. A relatively large degree of uncertainty regarding the forecasts, more than usual in their opinion, and this even applies in their view to short-range predictions.

    Do they see snow on the horizon? Possibly, but in terms of accumulating snow almost exclusively in Scotland and perhaps the Northern hills of England. And, other than the possibility of periodic “snow showers” as the wind turns northwesterly the Dutch mets aren’t predicting accumulating snow in the Netherlands in the long-range.

    This could of course all change. I check in with the KNMI and Met Office every other day.

    1. When there is blocking, there can be vast differences in how it impacts Europe & the US, depending on the type of block and the details.

      It’s entirely possible that both sides of the Atlantic are getting “good” forecasts.

    2. Understood Joshua. There’s always going to be conflicting points of view when discussing longer range weather patterns as they are less predictable. And certainly the impacts between here and there dont always correlate, as TK said.

  50. TK, wishing your Mom well.

    Pneumonia is a tough illness on older folks. The good news doctors have tools to combat it.

  51. Thanks TK, keeping your mom in my thoughts.

    Here in Southern CA, we are gearing up for what remains an extremely dangerous situation with the next storm coming in late this weekend. There have been some developments today that have yielded a bit of cautious optimism, mainly due to a potentially faster storm motion which could somewhat limit amounts. But it’s only a modest improvement over some of the most dire projections from yesterday, and the situation remains very serious.

    The eastern US pattern change remains on track by mid-month or just before.

    1. Thanks WxW. I chatted briefly with my BIL outside of San Francisco. His in laws are in orange country. Their area is fairly flat so he thought they would be ok

      Please be safe also

  52. On the upcoming (now mid-to late month?) pattern change. I can’t help my skepticism. After all, it’s based on model projections…

  53. TK, you make an excellent point about the blocking (not that I really know anything about it) which could produce two quite different scenarios here and in Northwestern Europe. Correct me if I’m wrong, but since early December I’ve noticed that the strong jet stream that has impacted weather in NW Europe from our part of the world has mostly been on a beeline from here to there. This may change soon. Perhaps this is what’s you’re referring to.

    By the way, Mark Vogan, the Scotsman, does believe that mid February changes could produce a period of snow and cold in Scotland and parts of Northern England. But he did add a few caveats to his long-range forecast.

  54. Newest temp outlook for mid month through March 1st do show below normal in the eastern conus, but it’s marginal (closer to 50-50 chance). I have a feeling this pattern change will be marginal at best.

    1. Understand the skepticism on the pattern change, but it is showing up on all model ensembles….literally all of them. Teleconnections (-AO, -NAO, +PNA) becomes favorable and the MJO heads towards favorable changes as well. And it is not long range anymore, it is only two weeks away.

      They are not showing us going into a deep freeze, I was looking at the EPS and while 850mb temps becomes very cold, surface temps here are only marginally cold, at least to start. But you dont need very cold temps to snow. Normal to slightly below normal will do it.

      I have little doubt in my mind there will be a better pattern starting mid month….the only uncertainty I have is how long it will last. If it is only 2 weeks as opposed to 4, and we get unlucky during that period with a storm or two whiffing to the south, then that is how we could conceivably get screwed.

      But I dont think that will happen. I think we will get a series of accumulating snow events out of this and at least one of them a sizable storm. But we will see. I am keeping my expectations muted to avoid a letdown down the road 🙂

  55. Thanks TK. Prayers to your mom

    Let’s get the pattern flipped here and Europe please. Skiing in the French Alps in early March and it’s been a rough month after a banger start.

  58. So the GFS was onto something with this little area of almost north to south precip in eastern MA

    Logan even briefly reported heavy rain

  61. Late Development: Newton teachers strike is OVER!

    Schools start Monday with a 1 hour delay.

    February vacation remains CANCELED! đź‘ż

  63. Eric’s final on air thoughts for the evening:

    “Winter makes a comeback later this month into March.”

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