Saturday February 3 2024 Forecast (8:08AM)

93 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 3-7)

A blocking pattern helps us return to brighter weather this weekend. Caveat: The return to sun will be delayed along the coast south of Boston as a north northeast wind drives a deck of clouds onshore for a good part of the day today – even potentially producing a few snow showers from the MA South Shore to Cape Cod. It won’t stay 100% sunny elsewhere though as there are some higher level cloud patches that will be moving southward in the upper flow over the region. There will be enough of a wind shift to north northwest later in the day though to drive the lower cloud deck to sea. As the weekend goes along, high pressure at the surface extending from the Great Lakes to southeastern Canada provides us with dry weather. Meanwhile, the first of two large ocean storms spins well to our southeast and east this weekend. The pattern provides generally sunny weather for the entire region both Sunday and Monday. During the weekend, as part of the large scale blocking pattern in place, a storm will travel eastward through the US Southeast. This low will emerge off the Atlantic Coast and spin in the waters to our south during the first half of next week. By Tuesday and Wednesday, the circulation between it and the high pressure area to our north will enhance a northeast wind flow and drive more clouds back into coastal areas, especially southeastern MA and RI by Tuesday and Wednesday. These areas are also most likely to see some ocean effect snow showers that may develop and move into the region.

TODAY: A cloud canopy lingers MA South Shore through Cape Cod / Islands where a few snow showers are possible before some later-day clearing. Elsewhere, more sunshine but intervals of high and middle clouds as well. Highs 33-40. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH, gusts over 20 MPH, especially coast.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 16-22. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 32-39. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 17-23. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind N 5-15 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 18-25. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Potential coastal snow showers favoring Cape Cod. Highs 31-38. Lows 21-28. Wind NE 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 8-12)

Blocking eases and shifts enough to allow a more west to east flow to evolve. High pressure maintains control of our weather with dry conditions and a moderating trend later in the week. From later on February 9 into February 10 a trough from the west will swing through with the potential for some rain/snow shower activity and by the end of the period we may have impact from another low pressure area as well as the subtropical jet stream will become more active across the country in the days ahead.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 13-17)

A more active pattern sends 1 or 2 potential storm systems our way at mid month. Variable temperatures during the period – no major extremes indicated.

93 thoughts on “Saturday February 3 2024 Forecast (8:08AM)”

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Hope your Mom is feeling better this morning

    The Day dawned quite clear here but with clouds off to the East Now it has pretty much clouded over once again. Will we ever see the sun again?????

  6. Thanks all! Heading back to visit her after lunch. Lots of rest needed this weekend for sure.

  7. 1. 9.0” = 1936-37
    2. 9.2” = 2023-24**
    3. 9.3” = 2011-12
    4. 10.3” = 1972-73
    5. 12.4” 2022-23

    I would be curious if #s 1, 3, 4 were El Niño years as well. I believe #5 was La Niña.

    3. 1: Before the index identified.
      2: Strong (but weakening) El Nino.
      3: Moderate La Nina.
      4: Strong El Nino.
      5: Weak La Nina.

      There is no 1 to 1 relationship with this index and winter snowfall. It’s ALWAYS a combination of indices.

    1. She did. We’ll get more updates today but I suspect she’ll be there for the weekend anyway.

  11. Thanks Tk . I’m glad your mom was admitted so she can get the best care & medication.. Hoping for a speedy recovery

    1. 951 mb!!!! That would be a monster. Of course if there even is a system it will NOT be this strong. 🙂

  17. The CFS is a decent model quite often for trends …

    Obviously, as you know, the specific events are not anything you can trust, timing-wise, strength-wise, and other-wise. 😉

    A take-away from today’s, for example: A fast-loop of the surface map shows you active jet streams (both subtropical and polar).

    It shows the polar jet further south in general than we’ve seen it a lot.

    The subtropical jet is of course normally active in El Nino.

    We still have the HT wildcard on the table. Writing my winter outlook back in November, I was fully aware that my forecast of a drier trend for February overall could blow up if the subtropical jet moisture was further north* Initially, it won’t be. Eventually, it may be.

    *I’m still not even sure if HT has anything major to do with blocking strength and resultant storm track for winter. I hypothesized it. But time will tell if it has anything to it. Even if we observe it, we can’t instantly prove that was a notable influence.

  20. TK, you got the dry part right for February so far. We’re in perhaps the driest stretch since mid to late October. It’s going to last awhile, maybe even most of the month with a couple of brief interludes of (mixed) precipitation. You also pointed out that it would be dry and fairly cold. While it’s not particularly cold, it’s also not mild. So, count me as impressed by the forecast you made in November.

  21. I know that indicators are showing a pattern change around mid month but am wondering if that translates to hefty storms and frigid temps. Or will it just be some snow and average to be below average temps? I know this is a ways out there and maybe too soon to know what’s in the pipeline. Thanks.

    1. I still think as we go through the late winter the Mid Atlantic may have more impactful storms than we do up here. That part of my outlook remains unchanged.

      Temperature-wise, I think we’ll end up colder than average for the month, but maybe only slightly.

        1. I didn’t actually say that. 🙂

          I said “may” not “definitely would”. This is just reflective of the pattern I’d been expecting all along anyway. 🙂

          1. I KNOW you didn’t. : ) 🙂 Just adding my commentary as I am oh so disappointed in this piece of S**T Winter!

  22. I am not sure about the way the Patriots are going with things there are two routes I could see them going
    1. trade the 3rd overall and get a tackle with 5 overall and a draft pick to use to move back into the first to get a qb later in the first or stay put where they are in the second. there are a handful of qbs that I think could surprise people. Then get a free agent WR and get a bridge qb, maybe someone that has worked with our new OC which there are two of them on the market that both saw their best years with this guy.

    2nd Get harrison or Nabers with the 3rd overall. get qb late first or early 2nd. Get an established FA qb or trade. Get an OT mid rounds and FA.

    3rd Get Daniels or Maye with 3rd overall. Then get OT second round and get WR in Free agency and get a FA qb.

    No matter what They need to resign Onwenu, KB, Henry & Dugger.

    We need to also understand that this is going to be yet another other in which the offensive staff has changed and this time drastically with likely new verbage, new style of offense ( which honestly I am not sure how I feel about) I think its a mistake going with this style of offense, what worked for the Patriots for 20 years worked because of how you could change it. Need players that could execute it. It was a very flexible system. Also news flash the type of offense that they are going to implament is the offense that Matt patricia and BB were trying Mac’s second year. We saw how that went. I hope I eat crow and they do well but I have alot of doubts.

    1. I agree with most of what you’re saying and changes like this are always a big GAMBLE. The QB situation is a MESS and I feel BB destroyed Mac. A lot of work to do on O to make it a well-oiled machine again.

  25. Matt, I share your doubts and concerns about the Patriots. I believe mediocrity will be a theme for years to come. Same with the Red Sox.

    But, we’ve been really lucky for a long period of time. Now we get to feel what frankly most fans do.

  26. Checked in with KNMI in the Netherlands. The torch there continues all week. Low to mid 50s (even upper 50s later this week) during the day, 40s at night. Light rain most days. It’s been this way for more than 2 weeks.

    Is there light at the end of the tunnel in their longer range? A little, but not much. Still calling for only slight/modest changes in both temperature (will cool to the low to mid 40s during the day and low to mid 30s at night) and precipitation (continued pattern of light rain showers, though a bit drier, and possible wet snow showers in Northern provinces but no accumulation).

    A spring-like feel is present throughout much of Europe. However, and this will make Hadi happy, after a lengthy thaw in Eastern Europe the cold there will likely return under the influence of cold spilling out of Siberia. During most winters, this is a favorable set-up for the Alps in Central Europe. Perhaps not in the valleys so much, but at higher elevations it is conducive to better snow chances and snow-making.

  27. I will say, one thing that is less frequent in this particular El Nino pattern, powerful East Coast storms (whether they are up here or not). We really haven’t seen any “bomb cyclones” or whatever the current media favorite phrase is.

    Boston in 2023 also had one of the least windy years on record. And this year is not really any different 1/12 of the way through.

    Yes we’ve had wind events, they’re not 100% absent, just less frequent. That’s actually part of the reason we saw a lot of damage from the couple we did. Less frequent “grooming” by Mother Nature.

      1. I didn’t even see that pop up when I posted it. Oh well.

        Now you know. Also known as Mt. San Antonio
        and it is about 40 Miles from Los Angeles, CA and stands at 10,064 feet.

  32. Its been a hot and light wind winter down here in the USVI. Usually this time of year there are many days that people can not go out and do field days due to the wind and waves but this winter has been extremely calm compared to the other years I been down here.

  34. Thanks TK.

    I saw the patter shift Joshua in Europe coming down the pipe and yes happy for sure!! Hope it hugs both US and Europe.

  35. TK – With regard to the 1936-37 winter season, is it possible for at least a wild, educated guess as to which index may have taken place perhaps based on other data?

          1. I’ve been to Vegas so many times I can’t even count, yet never made it out to Mt. Charleston and Lee Canyon. Couldn’t pull myself away from the blackjack tables. Just too much money to be made. 🙂

    1. There’s a lot of high elevation and winter scene there. Arizona is huge. 🙂

      Arizona is a lot more than heat / desert, and the summer monsoon. 🙂

      I used to forecast it ….. funnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn!

      1. Indeed. Most think of Arizona and Desert and cactus.

        Too me it is just awe inspiring. I was just going to say I need to visit Arizona, but I forgot that I have actually been there before, albeit on a layover at SkyHarbor Aiport in Phoenix.

        I’d love to visit the Flagstaff area and the White Mountains area in addtion to the Grand Canyon. Ain’t gonna happen at this point or at least highly unlikely.

        1. Flagstaff is a different world compared to Phoenix, pretty much any time of year, and most especially winter.

          1. Yup, well aware of that one for sure. Flagstaff is at roughly 7,000 feet depending upon exact location within city limits. 🙂 HUGE difference!!!

  39. Today was the third day in a row that my wife and I did the same five mile walk at about the same time of day. Today had such a different feel to it because of the sun. The sun seemed to have pretty much made up for the five or so degree drop in temperature today. As TK discussed above, the wind has been very calm.

  40. Other than that potential for some ocean effect snow showers at midweek, a very quiet 7 days is ahead with mainly dry weather.

    The only other chance of precip I see is a snow/rain shower threat Friday night and a rain shower potential for Saturday.

    High temps, 30s Sunday thru Wednesday, 40s Thursday & Friday, maybe 50+ Saturday. Doesn’t look like a long-lasting warm-up though. Colder weather is on the horizon right after that.

  41. All of Scandinavia except far Southern Denmark has now had 5 consecutive months of well below average temperatures. The winter there has seen sustained cold and snow with practically no let-up. And this was after a very cool autumn.

    1. Needless to say, I’d be in heaven with winters like that. Maybe we’ll have one at some point this decade.

  42. Thanks TK.

    One part of what I do professionally these days is “long range” (2-4 week or longer) strategic planning forecasts for local, state, and federal resource managers here in CA. That primarily comes into play during wildfire season, which is typically the state’s biggest natural hazard. For example, trying to identify windows of potentially increased fire activity. But the past couple years have been much more focused on extreme storms.

    Anyhow, we’ve been talking about “pattern changes” for weeks now, and how the first step for a pattern change in the East would be a deluge of rainfall for the West Coast. Now, I certainly couldn’t have predicted 2-3 weeks ago that a storm of the coming one’s magnitude would be threatening us. But this has been on the radar out here for awhile. And now, a massive preparation and prepositioning operation is in progress as we await this storm’s arrival. There are still likely to be major, potentially devastating impacts, but we at least know, and have known, that it’s coming.

    One of the takeaways from this: seasonal/long range forecasting is not perfect by any means. But the science has advanced tremendously, and there’s real value in these long range projections. It’s fine to be skeptical of it, but I really enjoy seeing the real world applications.

    Needless to say, you will definitely be hearing a lot about California weather in the national headlines the next few days…

    1. Wow you caught my attention. This is fascinating.

      One of my business partners strengths was strategic planning. For banks, but still. We had nationwide clients but also taught the two year Massachusetts Bankers association course at Babson for the best and brightest upcoming bankers in the industry

      I am absolutely fascinated and equally impressed that strategic planning is a process used by the national weather service. It is anything but an easy task and kudos to you also.

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