Sunday February 4 2024 Forecast (8:15AM)

107 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 4-8)

Even during our quiet stretches of weather there can be things to keep an eye on, and that will be the case during the coming several days for our area. But most importantly to many people who were longing for sunshine, we finally have a day today where it’s pretty much 100% sunny regionwide. The ONE small exception is a last band of ocean-effect stratocumulus clouds streaming from north to south over Cape Cod as of sunrise that will dissipate by mid morning, and I think that should be it for clouds today. There will be a bit of a breeze today making the highs around 40 feel colder, but not substantially so. The wind drops off tonight which will make it a cold one as any “heat” that the sun gave us radiates quickly back to space. Inland locations, closer to calm winds, will be coldest, while a feeble coastal breeze combined with the effect of the “warmer” ocean water will keep the temperature from falling as low there as it does inland. Monday’s breeze will become a little more active again as the sun mixes up the atmosphere, and it may be a couple degrees colder across the region than it is today, but look for plenty of sun. The exception is the southeastern portion of MA which may see an increase in ocean-effect cloud bands once again . The rest of the eastern portion of the WHW forecast area (southeastern NH, northeastern MA, and RI) can see some bands of higher clouds drift in from the northeast later in the day. Where are these clouds coming from? While we have high pressure ridging from the Great Lakes through southeastern Canada, supplying our fair weather, at the same time, as part of a large scale blocking pattern will be offshore low pressure. In fact, two storms out there will have an influence on our sensible weather during the next several days. The first one, southeast of Nova Scotia, will be responsible for helping turn the surface wind more to the northeast and returning the lower clouds to southeastern areas later Monday, and the outer edge clouds from the storm’s circulation will be the higher clouds that spin in from the northeast. That first area will start to drift away to the east, but while all this is going on, another storm passing very far to our south (through the US Southeast and Florida) will move into the western Atlantic and we’ll end up with elongated low pressure well to our southeast with high pressure to our north and northwest. That will maintain a more northeasterly air flow for our region into midweek, during Tuesday and Wednesday. This will result in more cloudiness again favoring southeastern MA and into RI. At any point from Monday evening through Wednesday, we can see bands of ocean-effect snow showers impacting mainly areas south of Boston. If/when this occurs, we’ll have to watch for localized quick but small snowfall accumulations that can make for temporarily slippery travel conditions. Once we get to Thursday, the blocking weakens and shifts slightly so that a more eastward movement of large scale features occurs. This will put a high pressure area over our region with light winds and a clearer sky. After a cold morning Thursday, we’ll see a nice temperature rebound and a milder afternoon. So, despite all the activity to keep an eye on, there’s still some nice mid winter weather to be had in our region in the days ahead…

TODAY: Early clouds Cape Cod, otherwise sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind N-NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 13-18 inland, 19-24 coast. Wind N under 10 MPH inland, up to 10 MPH coast.

MONDAY: Sunny through midday. Lower clouds return to southeastern MA by later in the day with a few higher clouds appearing elsewhere later too. Highs 33-40. Wind N-NE 5-15 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT: Lots of clouds southeastern MA with possible snow showers. Mostly clear to partly cloudy elsewhere. Lows 18-25, coldest inland. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Potential coastal snow showers favoring southeastern MA / Cape Cod. Highs 31-38. Lows 21-28. Wind NE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible in some coastal locations.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 15-22. Wind N-NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 39-46. Wind variable under 10 MPH becoming SW up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 9-13)

A more west to east movement of weather systems during this period. Initially, high pressure hangs on with fair weather to start February 9, but a trough / low pressure moving into the Great Lakes eventually to southeastern Canada brings a warm front through the region late that day with a chance of rain and higher elevation snow at night. This system’s cold front swings through with a chance of rain showers but mild air initially on February 10 before slightly colder air arrives to finish the weekend February 11 with dry weather. Watching for a storm system to bring the chance of rain/mix/snow to the region February 12 into February 13, but this far in advance there’s no way to provide any details.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 14-18)

A more active pattern sends 1 or 2 potential storm systems our way at mid month. Variable temperatures during the period – no major extremes indicated.

107 thoughts on “Sunday February 4 2024 Forecast (8:15AM)”

    1. Resting / on 2 IV antibiotics, and other testing still being done. Not too bad overall though! Going back for a visit at midday.

      She’ll be there for a while still, IMO.

  5. Pretty good squall line is going to move across South Florida this morning/midday. We’ll see some wind damage, lightning strike, and flash flooding reports.

  9. Can anyone tell me the appeal of Stephen A Smith? He gets paid millions to yell and scream nonsense. Last night, he assured us of a Knicks victory, yelling at the camera pre-game. Didn’t watch the game, but was glad to see that the Lakers won after Smith’s inane `commentary.’ I can’t stand the guy.

    5. he’s paid to be brash and polarizing. It gets views and people talk about it (like you’re doing here.) That’s why he gets millions. There are some calm, reserved and analytical commentators but they’re not as big a draw.

      1. I hear that about someone I hear on a radio podcast I follow. And it drives me nuts. You may be right but then I only lose more respect. We have enough crassness in our world now without paying someone to be an a$$. Your last sentence is a testament to where we are. How sad is that.

    6. He is crass. He hates the cowboys fans because,as I understand it, they are what…. Loyal. I’m not positive because I just can’t listen enough to know for sure. He is a supercilious fool.

  13. For Mark

    I think you’ll be in business on your ski trip to
    Palisades Tahoe

    Winter Storm Warning

    URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
    National Weather Service Sacramento CA
    1234 AM PST Sun Feb 4 2024

    CAZ014-068-069-050000-
    /O.CON.KSTO.WS.W.0007.000000T0000Z-240206T1200Z/
    Burney Basin / Eastern Shasta County-
    Western Plumas County/Lassen Park-
    West Slope Northern Sierra Nevada-
    Including the cities of Burney, Chester, Quincy, and Blue Canyon
    1234 AM PST Sun Feb 4 2024

    …WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM PST
    TUESDAY…

    * WHAT…Very heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2
    to 4 feet expected with up to 6 feet at the higher mountain
    peaks. Southerly winds gusting as high as 80 mph.

    * WHERE…Western Plumas County/Lassen Park and West Slope
    Northern Sierra Nevada, including Interstate 80 over Donner
    Pass and Highway 50 over Echo Summit.

    * WHEN…Through 4 AM PST Tuesday.

    * IMPACTS…Travel will be very difficult to impossible from
    travel delays, snow covered roads, and reduced visibility,
    with possible chain controls and road closures. Very strong
    winds could cause extensive tree damage and whiteout
    conditions.

    * ADDITIONAL DETAILS…Snow levels will be 3500 to 4500 feet
    initially, increasing to 5500 to 6500 feet by this afternoon,
    and 4500 to 5500 feet on Monday. Heaviest snowfall will be today,
    with snow rates of 1 to 3 inches per hour. Highest
    accumulations above 6000 feet.

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

    If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
    your vehicle in case of an emergency.

    The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
    be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

    &&

    $$

    3. Yup, I sure do remember it! It was a wet snow then colder air was infused into the system and it became powder and WINDY!!!!

    4. My guess is it’s one of the stigma I remember well when we spent the day building snow forts and having snowball fights. But I don’t remember the actual storm.

  18. Jacob said on air this morning that he’s eyeing 13-15 of this month. Maybe a Valentine’s Day event?

  20. Newton students will have their February vacation CANCELED and perhaps their April vacation as well, especially if there are any snow days.

    I appears that the students may very well be going to school, literally for the remainder of the year with NO breaks.

    1. That’s ridiculous.

      And I get it. But, that’s not realistic.

      You can’t do 4-5 straight months of school without a break, even not having had school the last 2 weeks. Cancel February break and do every third Saturday or something like that plus go to June 30th. But they’ll need a mental break.

    1. Nope ! And I won’t, I will retire on the spot.

      I support the Newton teachers, but I just wouldn’t make it through that. Not for me.

      1. If you ever decide to retire as a teacher, consider getting a degree in meteorology and a second career. 🙂

        But in all seriousness, I hope you never have to do that. You do an amazing job as a teacher. The youth of the world need people like you!

    2. Not I. As I mentioned last Friday, the town and our association have worked together well and for the good of the kids. Negotiations during our contract year have been and can be contentious, but they are negotiations. We don’t get everything; they don’t get everything.

      Prior to my work in Middleborough, I worked at a Catholic school where there was no union. My contract was on a two-sided, one piece of paper that basically said that I would teach Spanish and do anything else determined by the administration, most of which was without compensation.

      1. Nice. I follow a few school committees and most are not as coordinated as yours sounds. One …not sutton….is an example of politics taking precedent over the kids. Several past SC members who rightfully understand the problem have moved their kids from the public schools.

  23. Hmmm
    So far the models are NOT picking up on any ocean effect snow, save for a little spot of it from the RDPS.

    So, is this so mesoscale that the models just can’t pick up on it yet? OR perhaps this will not happen at all? Curious and thanks

  25. Thanks, TK!

    Praying that your Mom comes home soon!

    A year ago, most of us woke up to negative teens air temperature and even lower wind chill factors. If I remember correctly, a very strong cold front came through at dawn on the 3rd and temps dropped all day with strong winds.

    It was THE event of Winter, 2023 for me.

  27. https://www.newton.k12.ma.us/cms/lib/MA01907692/Centricity/Domain/4/SCHOOL%20CALENDAR%202023-24%20-%20Revised%207.26.23.xlsx.pdf

    Here’s the Newton PS calendar. If you eliminate Good Friday and February break, you’ve added six days. That would leave five days to make up at the end of the school year, provided there are no weather days for the rest of the school year. That would still give Newton Spring Break and the last day would be June 24 which isn’t bad given the circumstances.

      1. I have tickets to the Bruins on Feb 13 … Use that bit of knowledge however you want in making a winter storm forecast. Haha!

  30. Was hoping to watch the final round of the Pebble Beach Pro-Am in lieu of football this afternoon but the PGA just postponed the final round till tomorrow. I think NASCAR has/had an exhibition race in the LA Coliseum as well. The Grammys are live in LA tonight as well.

    In addition to the sun this afternoon, I am loving the deep blue skies!!! Didn’t see a lot of blue last summer due to the Canadian fires.

  33. Mom update…

    Much more alert, slightly more energetic and slightly more talkative today than yesterday.

    Productive cough, not severe, but the indication is that the antibiotics are working on the pneumonia and the lungs are starting to clear themselves.

    Still some other testing being done or to be done. That process is definitely slower on the weekend than during the week…

    Brother visiting in a while and will hopefully be able to meet with the nurse for more info.

    While I was there her nurse was tied up with a new patient that just arrived.

  34. Simply by looking at this loop, you can tell there’s likely blocking in place.

    The north to south movement of the lower clouds to our east combined with the east to west movement of the higher clouds to our east are a clear indication that blocking is likely there. One scenario you could see this without blocking is a progressive but large and expanding storm to our east that has a northerly air flow behind it and is temporarily pushing its higher cloud shield westward due to the expanding circulation. But in this case, it’s the former, not the latter.

  37. CFS weekly is supporting the colder trend, drier trend for February.

    Note: Drier trend doesn’t mean snowless. Don’t read it that way. 🙂

    February 1978 was notably drier than average … except Boston had double their average snowfall. 😉 That’s only one example, but one pretty much everyone remembers, or knows about if they weren’t around for it.

  40. Barcelona pulverized its maximum temperature for the entire month of February recording 23.2 C (73.7 F) this afternoon.
    Catalonia is suffering its worst drought ever with the regional government declaring a State of Emergency. Catalonia is trucking in desalinated water from other parts of Spain.

    1. Talk about the perfect perpendicular flow into higher hills and mountainous terrain not too far from the coast. You can see on the radar the moist air encountering hilly terrain and the yellows where the moisture is being wrung out.

    1. She’s doing ok. Been in touch with her and watching the Grammy Awards (long distance online) ..

      1. Good. Is she in Bay Area? Or did I make that up. My BiL is ok in Moraga but his oldest and husband are out of power in Walnut Creek with wires and trees down all over.

        1. Yes I’m in San Jose. Generally speaking Santa Clara valley, which is in a rain shadow so we don’t tend to get the worst of these- flat, as well, so less risk of mudslides. So far today I’ve seen two downed trees, one flipped over car, another that hydroplaned into the median, and a ton of downed branches. We’ve kept power. Thursday’s storm I also have a friend whose daughter came within a foot of being killed by a redwood but luckily escaped with minor injuries.

          1. Oh dear heavens. Terrifying. Positive thoughts and prayers that you and all in the area do these storms are safe.

            1. Thanks! Yeah, for all I said it was minor here compared to elsewhere, TK can attest that I have spent all day marveling at the wind gusts and the overall amount of rain. This storm definitely did not underperform–a very wild 24 hours!

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