Monday February 5 2024 Forecast (7:50AM)

114 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 5-9)

Large scale blocking is in place. The systems that impact our weather over the next few days are high pressure, which extends from near the Great Lakes into southeastern Canada, and low pressure, which stretches from off the coast of Florida to south of Nova Scotia. After abundant sunshine today, retrogression of upper level low pressure to our east will strengthen a northeasterly air flow, especially in coastal areas and across southeastern MA and RI, later today and tonight through Tuesday and into Wednesday. Cloudiness will return to eastern and southeastern portions of our region, most especially from the Seacoast of NH south southwestward through RI and much of eastern and southeastern MA starting this evening and going through Tuesday, into Wednesday. In addition, ocean-effect snow showers become more likely starting later this evening until sometime early or midday Wednesday, generally southeast of a Boston-Providence line. This region can see coatings of snow with up to an inch or two possible in some locations. Watch for occasionally to frequently slick untreated surfaces where these occur. The air flow backs to a more north and northwest direction later Wednesday when a clear-out process takes place. As the block weakens somewhat, systems will start to drift eastward, and high pressure will move over the region during Thursday with dry and tranquil weather, along with a warming trend after a chilly start to the day. High level clouds will appear during the afternoon in advance of an approaching trough and frontal system, which will send more cloudiness into the region during day on Friday, along with a continued milder trend, and a chance of some mixed precipitation and rain by Friday evening…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Clouds arrive in southeastern MA around sunset. Highs 33-40. Wind N-NE 5-15 mph.

TONIGHT: Lots of clouds southeastern MA with possible snow showers. Mostly clear to partly cloudy elsewhere. Lows 18-25, coldest inland. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY / TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Probable coastal snow showers southeastern MA / Cape Cod with a coating to around an inch of accumulation likely, and locally up to 2 inches of accumulation possible. Highs 31-38. Lows 21-28. Wind NE 10-20 MPH except 15-25 MPH Cape Cod, higher gusts possible in some coastal locations.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Snow showers ending in southeastern MA. Highs 32-39. Wind N 5-15 MPH except 15-25 MPH Cape Cod.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 15-22. Wind N-NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 39-46. Wind variable under 10 MPH becoming SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 32-39. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly to mostly cloudy. Chance of mix/rain at night. Highs 42-49, coolest northwest of Boston in higher elevations. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 10-14)

A more west to east movement of weather systems during this period. Low pressure moves through the Great Lakes to southeastern Canada early in the period and another low pressure area follows that up to pass near or just south of the region early next week. A rain shower is possible February 10 otherwise the February 10-11 weekend looks mainly dry with above normal temperatures, warmest to start, cooler to finish. Rain/mix/snow potential exists February 12 into February 13. Dry weather should end the period with seasonably chilly conditions.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 15-19)

Another potential storm system can impact the region around mid period.

114 thoughts on “Monday February 5 2024 Forecast (7:50AM)”

  4. Thanks TK !

    Today was the first school day since November, that when my daughter and I were on the road at 7am, the sun was already slightly above the horizon and illuminating the tops of some of the trees.

    And with it crystal clear, it was starting to brighten at about 6:30 am. Great quarter waning moon out there at that time too.

    1. Very nice. It was still light enough at 5:30 last night for me to drive. Not long ago it was 4:00. Will be happy to have cataracts done.

  7. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sfct-imp&rh=2024020500&fh=378&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2024020500&fh=378&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sfctd-imp&rh=2024020500&fh=378&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    February 20th projection.

    Sun really returns in February.

    At first look, its above freezing at 18z at noontime. Misleading.

    Projected dewpoint is 2 or 3F. That’s a cold, dry airmass, saved partially by a 37 degree sun angle.

    The cold wedge deep into the southeast, imagine if that verifies.

    1. Could be issue for down South, virtually meaningless for us, plus this type situation rarely leads to a snowstorm here. 🙂

  11. Notes:

    Salisbury Beach is supposed to receive new sand this week in order to help restore some of what got destroyed in the storms.

    Mark April 8th on your calendar. On that day we will have a 2.5 hour event and maybe 4.5 minutes of a real show.

    No more sunsets before 5 PM until November 3rd.

  12. Thank you, TK.

    Hope mom gets some answers today now that weekend is over.

    Julie hope all is well where you are. Scary stuff

    1. It was still pouring this morning but rain seems to have stopped for now. Southern cal I think is the bigger focus today

  13. Head home today. I’ve been bunny sitting in Uxbridge while oldest and family are in Stowe. They sent some glorious photos

  15. Thanks, TK.

    No change in the Dutch and British mets’ projections moving forward. While a gradual descent in temperature will eventually occur mid month – from a rather incredibly long 4 week period of well above average temps (along with light rain every day) – it’s still not forecast to be cold or snowy. This said, it’ll be seasonably cooler in Northwest Europe AND a wedge of cold air will penetrate from Russia into parts of Central Europe. This will likely translate into better snow chances in higher elevations of the Alps.

  18. For Newton public school students, today begins quite a stretch of endless schooldays between now and mid-late June. No February vacation with no April vacation potential as well. Their only real “breaks” will be recess and lunch along with 3 upcoming holidays.

  20. California video reminds me of 1982-1983.

    April 8 2024. I’ll be right in the middle of the path of totality.

    1. I think it is too early to pin down how far south the cold makes it in the east during this time period.

      One thing for certain, the pattern change is happening and we are going to turn cold the second half of the month. The wildcard is snow chances….we could certainly get screwed by suppression, at least initially.

  25. Thanks TK.

    A lot of the attention these past few days has been focused on California but incredible scenes coming out of Nova Scotia, which was absolutely crushed by the ocean storm to our east….
     
    Christian Bridges ️
    @ChristianWGME
    6h

    By 200 miles or so, Maine avoided a blizzard of historic proportions. Here’s what it looks like in Nova Scotia, one of the biggest storms in their history!

    https://x.com/ChristianWGME/status/1754447262887854173?s=20

    Chuck Wrathall
    @ChuckWrathall
    19h

    About 5 feet of snow so far and it’s still coming down. ❄️

    Sydney, Cape Breton Island, Nova Scotia

    #NSStorm

    https://x.com/ChuckWrathall/status/1754248252810047560?s=20

  26. 148 mph wind gust on the Sierra Crest at PalisadesTahoe. Hope this doesnt happen when we are out there next month!

    https://x.com/gdimeweather/status/1754527644022951963?s=20

    For snow, they received two feet from the first storm a few days ago and are approaching two feet on the current storm. The first overperformed and the second is underperforming. The heaviest precip with this one set up south over southern California. Still 4 feet plus over 5 days is not too shabby.

    The totals further south towards Mammoth Mtn are going to be insane.

  29. The eastern Maritimes and Cape Breton’s weather is inverse to ours, always !!

    Makes sense, they are perfectly distanced downstream to be under the opposite upper level feature.

    If were under a trof, they ridge. Visa versa.

    In Feb 2015, they were mild and snowless.

    I’ve been up there freezing in summer when its hot and humid here. And I’ve been up there sweltering in high humidity when its warm and dry here.

        1. THANK YOU! THANK YOU! THANK YOU!!!

          I have been trying to find a real web cam for Mt. Baldy Ski area. Now I have it. Thanks

      2. The San Gabriel Mountains in the area you discuss
        has peaks to just over 10,000 feet and they expect something in the order of 4-6 feet of snow. We shall see.

        Look at this potential snowfall map.

        You will note Mt. San Antonio (also known as Mt. Baldy)
        has additional snow fall of 60-72 inches (5-6 feet!!!!)
        that is addition to what fell last night!!!

        INCREDIBLE snows!!!!

        https://ibb.co/6yyG3cr

        1. When the skies clear, there are going to be some spectacular photos of LA with those SNOW covered mountains as a back drop.

          Something like the following but even better because of the shear amount of snow and the lowering snow levels!!!

          https://ibb.co/6mJMTs8

            1. me too. I hope some are available. IF I lived out there, I’d be sure to capture some myself. 🙂

              My son visited a friend out there a few years ago
              and he could see those snow covered mountains
              from where he was (Santa Monica ).

              Pretty cool.

      1. We needed the Pacific onslaught to get the ball rolling, wonder if an inside runner sort of is the finisher or last piece needed on the pattern transition ……………..

        1. It would kind of make sense, because as the cold air returns southward first in the plains, there should in theory be a brief northward flow to its east on the east coast ….. Then, there’s a big temp gradient for a storm to track west of us and then behind it, finally, the cold can surge to and past the east coast.

          1. That may be so, but to me it is still DISGUSTING!!!!!

            By the time that passes we are PAST the mid-point of February and rolling towards March. Getting late in the game. Still a chance for some late innings heroics, but it had best get under way!

            I am NOT liking this one bit!!!

            If I see one more cutter, I’m jumping off of the roof! 🙂

  33. NWS discussion about Ocean Effect Snow.
    NOT a big deal at all.

    .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/…
    Seaward low pressure retrogrades slightly as a series of shortwaves
    pepper eastern Massachusetts tonight and early Tuesday. 850mb temps
    continue to cool overnight, to as low as -12C, setting up for
    boundary layer deltaT values approaching 16C. Winds will also
    gradually shift to the NE, and while we typically like to see deltaT
    values nearing 20C for robust ocean effect snow showers, do think
    that some bands of OES will filter across the Cape and SE MA as
    early as 00Z tonight. Given cold pool peaks after 09Z, more robust
    snow showers could develop close to sunrise/the AM commute tomorrow,
    but all in all given a relatively dry column (total expected QPF
    near ~0.05″) and marginal surface temperatures, it will be a
    struggle to amass much more than 0.5-1″ of snow in the heaviest
    bands.

    Ocean effect snow flurries and stratus will persist through much of
    the morning for the Cape and Plymouth county, but flurries should
    diminish after lunch time as cold pool shifts southwest and 850mb
    temps increase again to about-5C). Stratus, however, will stick
    around for most if not all of the day Tuesday south and east of I-
    95, allowing for another juxtaposition of a day in terms of clouds
    and temps across SNE; with the CT River Valley again experiencing
    abundant sunshine and seasonable temperatures and SE MA socked in
    the clouds. Pressure gradient slackens but a modest 925mb LLJ
    develops over eastern MA and RI Tuesday morning; expecting winds
    will slacken slightly but still gust to ~20mph.

  34. Tom, I keep looking at that web cam link you sent me.
    I am mesmerized by it. It is just DUMPING SNOW!!!!
    And the darkness is incredible!!!!!

  37. 12z ECMWF forecast position of low pressure at 00z Feb 13: Near Alpena Michigan

    12z GFS forecast position of the same low pressure at 00z Feb 13: Near Brunswick Georgia.

    ONLY a difference of about 930 miles. Hey, at least it’s a week away… They have time to find some agreement. 😉

    1. FledWx
      @_fled_wx
      1h

      So is there a decent chance for snowstorms now? I am assuming it’s a significantly better chance than if we didn’t have this high latitude blocking.

      John Homenuk
      @jhomenuk
      1h

      I’d argue yes. Blocking dislodged cold southward and also acts to hold it in place. The active Pac Jet and STJ should ensure moisture and storm chances also.

      1. The suppression idea is still very much on the table too.

        If you want my bet, we don’t see all one or all the other, but a mix of both.

  41. Tomer Burg
    @burgwx

    Even though temperatures in the eastern half of the U.S. substantially cool down past Feb ~13, lots of patience will be needed for snow events, especially in NJ/NYC.

    The greatest probability for snow events in the region emerges towards the last week of February & March.

    https://x.com/burgwx/status/1754232334209933511?s=20

    Tomer Burg
    @burgwx
    Feb 4

    Shifting gears farther north towards Boston, Greenland High regimes are actually less frequently associated with moderate-major snow events than other regimes.

    This makes sense conceptually, as we see mid-month that strong Greenland blocks can lead to too much suppression.

    https://x.com/burgwx/status/1754233694372409637?s=20

  42. CPC on board with the February idea of more suppression than lifting of subtropical low pressure areas.

    A couple will get up here – most won’t. I like my February forecast still. But don’t put away your snow shovels. That would be an ERROR.

  44. I get a sense that we’re just unlucky this year in the snow and cold department. Of course, time will tell.

    Spring is fast approaching. You can tell on a day like today. In the ample sunshine it didn’t feel cold at all. The bugs are back in my basement wells, flying around. Only a couple. But we haven’t had the kind of cold you need to kill off the damn insects. And I don’t think we’ll get that kind of cold, either.

    My guess is that this weekend we’ll begin to see crocus shoots. Though there will be clouds, if the sun shines I think we’ll have some overshooting of temperature. With the ground hardly frozen and obviously no snow we could hit 60F this weekend. And, from Friday morning to Wednesday morning there will be yet another long stretch of with no sub-freezing temps at night(!). Look for some flower buds to pop open on bushes and trees.

      1. I’m close to throwing in the towel. No doubt it’s unwise at this point in time. But my instincts tell me (and have been telling me for a while) it’s just not our year. And not only the lack of snow, but also the lack of cold.

        2. Throwing in the towel right about at the half way point of winter is virtually ALWAYS a mistake. 🙂 There have only been a very small handful of winters where that gamble was correct. This likely will not be one of them. 😉

          We really need to let the season occur before we verify it. 🙂

          We are literally 48 hours beyond the half way point. That leaves the entire second half of winter, minus 2 days. That’s a LONG time. 😉

  48. I was at Stratton Saturday and took some similar pictures. It was stunning scenery with the blue bird skies and snow/rime ice ensconced on all the tree branches. Looking closer at the branches, there was a good quarter inch of pure ice on them from freezing rain a week and a half ago, topped with snow from the storm early last week, and then solidified by freezing fog. These pictures were the end result….

    https://imgur.com/TbDgNoP

    https://imgur.com/3m7TwpL

    https://imgur.com/nFRwrZR

    The skiing itself was not the best, the trails got scraped off and icy very fast. They have plenty of good base there and are nearly 100% open, but need a good dumping to cover up the ice.

  49. TK, you are correct. As I said in the post above it’s “unwise” for me to think of throwing in the towel.

    The brutal truth be told, to feel physically sick (headaches, nausea, fatigue) for 3 or 4 months a year as I now do during summer is just not something I look forward to. So when there hasn’t been much winter at all – 2 years in a row – it’s not an easy thing.

    I’m going to try to spend some time in England this summer. It’s bound to be cooler there. But doing so is very costly. I first need to make sure I have paid work over the summer while I’m there.

    Somehow we’ll manage. These are first world problems after all.

      1. top of Lee peaks is 11,000 feet and change. I csn’t imagine be confrobted with an avalanche cascading down ipon me. Truly frigtening.

  53. 6Z GFS for early on the 13th

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2024020606&fh=168&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Kuchera Snow

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2024020606&fh=180&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Not a bad dump of snow at all. Wouldn’t this be something????

    Euro had it but warmer and too far SOuth for real meaningful snow

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2024020600&fh=174&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2024020600&fh=210&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

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