Thursday February 8 2024 Forecast (7:35AM)

129 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 8-12)

High pressure brings fair weather to our region today, and after a cold start, we’ll have a decent temperature moderation taking us to afternoon high temps that are not bad for early February. But even milder weather is ahead. A warm front will approach then pass the region Friday and Friday night with lots of clouds, but it still looks like any precipitation generated by it will travel to our north. As a storm that was once a menace for California travels across southeastern Canada, Saturday, we’ll be in a mild westerly flow of Pacific origin, and while much of the day looks rain-free, a batch of rain showers later in the day or at night will signal the arrival of a cold front. Behind this front, expect Sunday to be cooler and breezy with dry weather. The cooling trend will continue through Monday, at which time we’ll see cloudiness advancing ahead of our next storm threat, which can spread precipitation (rain/mix/snow) into the region later Monday. Precipitation type for this system, assuming it doesn’t miss to the south, can’t really be determined quite yet. At Day 5, there are questions to answer regarding how much cold air will be in place before the arrival. Stay tuned.

TODAY: Patchy clouds, but plenty of sun. Highs 39-46. Wind variable under 10 MPH becoming SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 32-39. Wind SE-S up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly to mostly cloudy. Highs 42-49, coolest northwest of Boston in higher elevations. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. A passing rain shower possible late in the day. Highs 50-57. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of a rain shower evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows 30-37. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 27-34. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

MONDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of rain/mix/snow late in the day or at night. Highs 38-45. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 13-17)

Low pressure moves near or south of the region early February 13. Potential for mix to snow followed by drying as the system moves away. Generally dry/chilly weather is expected during the middle of next week. Watching for another possible low pressure area to bring a mix/snow chance around February 16 to early February 17 but this is low confidence and the system may be further south.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 18-22)

Overall pattern looks on the drier side with below normal temperatures as the idea is stronger blocking suppressing a storm track mostly to our south.

129 thoughts on “Thursday February 8 2024 Forecast (7:35AM)”

  1. Thanks TK !

    Curious in the next 48-72 hrs what the trends if any will be for early next week.

    More run to run changes with little agreement or a solution that gains consistency and widespread agreement ?????

    In the meantime, its nice to see the sun again.

    1. These days, upgrades have been more a bane than a boon, and I feel we get less agreement in our guidance until the system is nearly upon us. IMO this has made it more than ever before important to know the biases and weaknesses for each guidance product.

      The pattern tells me 2 things…
      Watch for lack of cold to be in place initially.
      Watch for the system to end up further south than the general model consensus shows now.

      Based on the 2 things just listed, and “beyond day 4”, I kept my wording for Monday very vague. I’ve already heard snowfall amounts hinted at by one source. I’m not going there yet. 😉

      1. nor should you energy isn’t even on shore yet.

        so you do believe thath the euro and canadian are takibg it too far North?

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.

    I am really not feeling it for the system early next week. still plenty of time, but for now nothing I am excited about.

  3. Tom,
    Thank you again for that link for the Anfeles National Forest. love it!

    However, I confirmed this morning that it is Not Mt. Baldy but rather another nearby area called mountain high with elevations a little lower than mt Baldy.

    Btw, as of early this morning, Mt. Baldy received 55 inches of snow from this storm system. Not too Shabby, eh? That and only 40 miles or so from downtown Los Angeles!

      1. You’re the Man!!! Thanks Tom.
        I have yet to find one. I mean I found one, but all it had was
        an old promotional video showing someone skiing on powder.
        Nice, but NOT a live shot. 🙂 perhaps you’ll have better luck,

        Many thanks

    1. Could be any of the above. Farther SOuth than the Euro, but not too far South = more snow. More SOuth = less Snow. Too far South = No SNOW.

      Too far North = RAIN
      In Between Mix/Mess Snow/Rain YUCK!!!

  9. Thanks, TK!

    22 degrees a la casa.

    Prayers to all whose loved ones are in need of healing and peace.

  10. For Tom and perhaps Mark OR anyone else interested.

    For that great web cam link Tom provided, here is a trail
    map of the Mountain High resort where the camera resides.
    I have marked a small red X near the middle of the image
    that is where I believe the camera is. You will note on the website (see link below) that it says Borderline. You will also
    note that the X I marked is at the top of the trail labeled
    Borderline, a pretty good indication of the camera location.
    Not 100%, but pretty good.

    https://ibb.co/vBZN3Fy

    https://camguide.net/usa/california/los-angeles/panoramic/

    Btw, this location indicated 53 inches of snow from the storm. 🙂

  11. Thanks TK.

    Models are all over the place at this point. Impossible to get a true sense of what’s going to happen.

    1. Totally agree, but my sense is we will get SCREWED one way or the other. Either RAIN or a MISS. We just can’t seem to line things up properly. Perhaps it WILL work out?? Hopefully, as we get closer, we’ll know. Clearly, we do NOT know at this point.

    1. Perhaps a little, but not my a whole lot. Actually fairly close
      to normal, albeit a bit above.

      Boston Buoy, 16 NM East of Boston is currently at: 40.5
      Average would be “something” like 38 or 39. Not certain of exact number but somewhere around there.

      So all-in-all, not too bad.

  18. Thanks Tk . Is this system that your watching going to impact Sunday or Monday for Poland Maine as I’m going Sunday am & leaving Monday Am & definitely I can’t have any weather issues .

      1. It’s 3 hours from my house . Not far from that horrible tragedy in Lewiston as my dads Hospital is in Lewiston

  20. We’ve gone a record 713 consecutive days in Boston without 4 inches or more of snow in a single event. It’s doubtful things will change next week.

    I’ve given up `trying’ at this point, with reverse psychology, voodoo, … nothing seems to be working.

    Cooler times ahead after this weekend of soaring temps, sure, but cold … not really.

  22. FYI, the Dutch KNMI today has backed off from a longer range colder trend. The forecast for the Netherlands no longer includes night frost in the long range. Will the temp diminish from historic highs? Sure, but gradually going from 13C (55F) to 8C (46F) during the day is not exactly a colder trend. It’s cooling from anomalous warmth to slightly to modestly above average temps.

  23. Thanks TK – your mom is in my thoughts.

    Have enjoyed reading some of the discussion here of all the wild weather we’re dealing with out in CA. I won’t go into exhaustive detail but it’s definitely been a wild few days. 3 day storm total rainfall in the downtown LA area of around 10 inches, which is about a 1 in 100 to 1 in 1000 year event.

    This link may have already been posted, but if you want to explore some more views of the freshly snow-covered landscape here (and it is spectacular), this is a great site:

    https://ops.alertcalifornia.org/

  24. Well, next Tuesday is a win-win scenario for me.

    If it does what the 12z GFS scenario shows, we’ll still be on track to finish June 12th.

    I can live without snow and even I’m kind of craving a snowstorm, so if it hits and we get a snow day, I’ll still be happy.

  25. This weekend’s forecasted warmth, while doesn’t coincide to the day of previous Feb warmth, seems to be something not out of the ordinary around here recently. My son was born on Feb. 18th 2017 in the middle of a multi-day warm stretch (60+ degrees), and IIRC, last year the same and others in the past 7 years or so around this timeframe.

    1. 1983 vacation week in Feb was as warm as many April vacation weeks…

      And it was a strong El Niño. 🙂

  26. Pete might favor snow N&W of Boston, but he’s obviously favoring a more Northerly tract. If there were the case, I would agree with him. But that is not etched in stone.

    Here is the 12Z GFS showing a system to our SOUTH!!!!!

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2024020812&fh=132&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    Canadian is weaker and faster

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2024020812&fh=120&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

  28. I haven’t looked too extensively, but I would take a somewhat contrarian view to most of what I’ve seen on social media regarding next week’s storm. I actually think it’s a very legit snow threat for SNE, potentially even for the I-95 corridor, though that may not be the most likely location. Thermal profiles and low track will definitely be concerns, and as usual it’s somewhat of a “thread the needle”. But it’s a wider needle than the one from the slop-fest storm a couple weeks ago.

    One thing I do not buy is the suppressed trend on some of the models like the GFS. IMO, if most of SNE misses out on significant snow from this storm, it’ll be because it tracked too far north, not south. But I think a “Goldilocks” track for SNE is a real possibility.

    1. Goldilocks track! Gotta love that.

      So then SNE might be in the “Goldilocks Zone”?
      An Astronomer’s reference.

  30. This photo is from last year, but this is what I am looking for today or tomorrow. With oh so much snow, I want to see if the
    new photos will be as dramatic.

    https://ibb.co/86b4TJ5

    WxWacther are you in a location that would allow you
    to take a photo of the snow capped mountains?

      2. Bingo! I just listened to that recently along with a bunch of other Chipmunks / David Seville on what was Ross’s bday. 🙂

  32. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=500wh&rh=2024020800&fh=108&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=500wh&rh=2024020812&fh=96&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    Top link is 00z Euro, bottom is 12z Euro.

    How the 2 streams interact is huge on this particular event.

    Looks to me like latest 12z northern stream is flatter than on 00z run.

    I will guess this means a further south solution, perhaps slightly weaker low upcoming on 12z

  35. WOW! WOW! Double WOW!

    Look at this screen shot from Upper Chisholm web cam at Mountain High Resort near Wrightwood, CA about 40-50 miles or so from Downtown Los Angeles. This shot is amazing, imho anyway. I believe that is Mt. San Antonio in the back ground.

    https://ibb.co/KVyb7p9

  36. To show you how off the models can be, even in the very short term, several of yesterday’s British TV and radio forecasts for the UK included snow from Manchester and points north. They turned out to be quite off base. England had hardly any snow except in higher elevations/hills (and quite limited at that), and even Scotland’s accumulating snow was confined to the far north and higher elevations/Highlands. No doubt, it rained hard throughout England with some mixing up north (but little accumulation, exception at higher elevations, as mentioned). (Near) record high temps are now expected across Southern England and the low countries in the coming days.

    The Met Office was consistently much more cautious about the snow and cold projections. It’s why I watch and listen to them and not the hype masters on, say, Sky News. They’ve noted the problems with thermal profile all winter and the fact that except for far-Northern Scotland, far-Eastern Europe/Russia and Scandinavia (locked into a very cold pattern for months) when the cold has made an appearance it’s not been especially cold anywhere in Western Europe or the UK. And most of the time the cold has not made an appearance this winter in Western Europe or the UK.

  41. For those who don’t think it’s getting cold, plenty of nights in teens coming up. It’s going to get cold no matter what you want or think. Bitter? No but plenty of cold coming.

    1. Sounds like routine Winter to me. Bring it on!
      BUT I don’t want any cold pushing snow to our South.
      That would be a major NO NO!!!!

    2. We are reduced to watching webcams from Arizona to satiate our love for snow. This winter blows chunks

      2. I remember the days before the internet when we had to wait for our monthly snow-porn magazines to be delivered in those plain brown paper wrappings 🙂

        1. Oh yes, for sure. One I remember was SKI Magazine and of course we had to hit the SKI Show in November sometime!
          I used to collect resort pamphlets. I could rattle off the vertical drop for every area in New England and even some from the Rockies. 🙂

          I used to love skiing. Way past my time. 🙂

  44. Quick update on Mom …

    Slight improvement again today. Not as tired as yesterday, but still not enough energy to walk. Getting over this type of pneumonia is a slow process, especially for someone in their 90s.

    But still, the outlook as positive and rehab will follow when she’s strong enough to walk again. In the mean time, day-by-day, lots of rest.

  48. CPC says BELOW normal temps and BELOW normal precipitation from the period beginning Valentine’s Day through March 1. I concur. I’ve concurred since November. 😉

    1. That’s pretty absolute sounding for how many days away this thing is. Dangerous to do, but Bernie likes his limbs. 🙂 He’s even going to venture a snow accumulation map tomorrow. Good luck! I’ll wait until Sunday.

      The disturbance that triggers that low is currently located in the northern Gulf of Alaska.

      That’s placing a whole lot of trust in inconsistent model guidance. Just saying. 🙂

  51. According to tv Mets:

    EURO = ❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️
    GFS = Miss!

    EENY, MEANY, MINEY, MOE…

  53. So let’s pick on the GFS for a moment. 😉

    The last 6 operational runs snowfall forecast for Boston for the early week threat.

    Time/Day of Run … Snowfall (to the nearest half inch using 10:1 map)

    12z Wednesday .. 19 1/2 inches
    18z Wednesday .. 11 1/2 inches
    00z Thursday .. 4 1/2 inches
    06z Thursday .. 1/2 inch
    12z Thursday .. Zero
    18z Thursday .. 3 inches

    Right. Consistency. 😉

    This is why run-to-run details mean virtually nothing when a threat is still days away. And that’s only one example of many. Snowfall, precipitation, temperature, wind, pressure, etc.

    These are an atmospheric simulation, not a picture of the actual atmosphere. It’s only based on what we observe with imperfect tools inputted into atmospheric models that run fair to good but imperfect calculations. That’s it. 🙂

    The further into the future you go, the bigger the error is.

    1. Agree. I also think on this one, we will be lucky to be very definitive even by Sunday AM.

      The way I look at it is if the B’s win tonight, we’ll have snow and if they lose, we’ll have rain. I booked it on FanDuel.

      1. Well Marchy is playing for the snow team, given how quickly they got on the board against the team with the best record in the NHL.

        But like the time leading up to the storm, there’s a looooong way to go.

  54. Happy to hear your mom is improving. Slow and steady wins the race.

    Our town highway department posted this tonight:

    Heads up for tomorrow mornings commute!! We received a warning from Precision weather. High humidity and areas of mist pre-dawn through daybreak Friday is likely to dampen surfaces and if this occurs with temps. in the freezing range slick spots can develop. Our roads still have some residual of safety melt and salt on them so that may help but be alert if driving early tomorrow morning.

  55. “It is easier to snow coming out of warm than cold.”

    If that weather saying is fact, then snow should be “easy peasy” early next week following the near record warm weekend upcoming.

    TK – Is that why, following days of extreme cold, it usually rains or snow eventually changes to rain, the opposite effect?

    March 31-April 1, 1997, Boston 25.4” snow coming off of Easter Sunday 60s.

    1. It’s more of a general rule of thumb, but not a lock one way or another.

      Coming out of cold, you often find yourself in a pattern of warm advection aloft. This is common in storm tracks that are close. Even if you stay cold at the surface, you warm aloft to at least go to sleet/ice.

      There are many instances where passing storms coming out of warm are drawing cold air into them, which often cause your rain or mix to snow events.

      Again, there are many exceptions, but oftentimes it does actually snow better after a mild spell.

      1. IF the cold air arrives first, then we are all set for snow, at least according to JR. Otherwise mainly a rain event.

        TK – Hopefully by the time you read this later this morning, you will have a much better idea either way.

  56. GFS 00z 10:1 snowfall for Boston: About 3 inches.
    GFS 06z 10:1 snowfall for Boston: About 10 inches.

    I rest my case. 😉

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