Friday February 9 2024 Forecast (7:22AM)

200 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 9-13)

A variety of weather is coming up during the next several days. A nice sunrise was just visible in eastern MA and southeastern NH with much of the region also frosted over heavily as overnight calm and mainly clear weather allowed temperatures to fall to dew point levels. Clouds advance quickly from west to east this morning and a brief episode of rain and/or sleet may occur, mainly northwest of Boston and near the South Coast, as a warm front moves through. This will be followed by the return of sun and a milder afternoon. The upcoming weekend will feature above normal temperatures, despite the passage of a cold front Saturday night. This front will bring rain showers to the region, but dry weather will dominate during the day Saturday and again on Sunday. Ahead of the front, Saturday will be the warmest day with 50+ high temperatures for pretty much everybody except perhaps portions of the South Coast, Cape Cod, and the Islands which may fail to reach 50. We can also see some areas of fog Saturday morning before we see lots of clouds and intervals of sun. I think the sun will lack enough so that record high temperatures, including the 60 set just last year at Boston, are not tied or broken. Sunday will be the cooler of the 2 weekend days, but still above normal for this time of year as the colder air will be slow to advect into the region. And then early next week, while colder air continues to filter into the region from high pressure in eastern Canada, we’ll be watching for the passage of low pressure near or south of the region. Model guidance continues to be in disagreement and inconsistent with this system. For now, it’s safe, forecast-wise, to go for a swath of probable precipitation of the liquid or frozen variety, odds favoring the frozen variety for most of the region, from late Monday to midday Tuesday. Details in precipitation type and timing will still need to be worked out. Model watchers: Knowing the uncertainty, don’t focus on any one model solution.

TODAY: Early sun east coastal areas, then lots of clouds through midday including the potential for brief rain or sleet north and west of Boston and near the South Coast. Sunshine returning during the afternoon west to east. Highs 43-50. Wind S under 10 MPH becoming SW and increasing to 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Areas of fog forming. Lows 36-43. Wind SW 5-15 MPH evening, diminishing to under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Areas of fog until mid morning, otherwise lots of clouds and intervals of sun. Late-day rain showers southwestern NH and central MA. Highs 48-53 South Coast, 54-59 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with rain showers early to mid evening. Partly cloudy late evening and overnight. Lows 33-40. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW, a few higher gusts possible.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 27-34. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

MONDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 38-45. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Overcast with rain/mix/snow probable. Lows 30-37. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Overcast with mix/snow probable in the morning, ending in the afternoon. Temperatures steady 30-37. Wind NE 10-20 MPH, shifting to N.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 14-18)

Fair weather during the middle of next week. Watching for another possible low pressure area to bring a mix/snow chance around February 16 to early February 17 but this is low confidence and the system may be further south. Fair weather to end the period. Temperatures below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 19-23)

General pattern is cold/dry, but 1 snow threat may occur mid to late period.

200 thoughts on “Friday February 9 2024 Forecast (7:22AM)”

      2. Well, wouldn’t you at least like to see what that is?

        Hopefully, each run now will be getting “closer” to the solution. 🙂 🙂 🙂

        I am liking the trend, even IF NOT lock at this point.

        1. It could reverse today, but I don’t feel as good on the trend, as the last 2 runs of the Euro have slowly settled south.

  7. Without going into detai, can you determine the magnitude of this storm? Are we looking at a foot of snow or a much smaller amount? Given our lack of snow so far, wonder how much media is using the hype machine.

  8. Thanks TK – quite a nice mix of beautiful sunrise over Buzzards Bay with a layer of frost on the trees and grass. Birds are returning as the chirping is getting louder in the morning. Storm or not we are one day closer to spring!

  12. Thanks TK

    Curious the changes today, track has been wobbling for sure. I just don’t think it gets shunted south. My biggest concern would be too far north.

  13. The legendary Seiji Ozawa died. He was 88. Conductor of the Boston Symphony Orchestra for many years he was innovative, flamboyant and a breath of fresh air in the classical music scene.

    1. I think I heard he was the longest-tenured conductor in the orchestra’s history.

      I remember when the “new” Garden was inaugurated and the Pops was playing for the festivities, he came in at the end of the evening directly from conducting a BSO concert and conducted the final piece on the program.

    1. Thank you for asking. She had more blood work yesterday that came back encouraging. They just can’t her enough blood to do all the tests they want. She had a second lumbar puncture to see if bacteria is still there. They get results from that today or tomorrow. It’s a long wait.

  19. Headline on the front page of today’s Boston Herald:

    BOMBOGENESIS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

    I haven’t heard that term since Barry used to use it on occasion on air. Those were the days.
    🙂

    TK – How is Barry doing these days? Do you still keep in touch? 🙂

    1. Saw it. Wording was…

      “Massachusetts could see an ‘impactful winter snow storm,’ bombogensis‘ cannot be ruled out,”

      Word smithing is interesting since that is all accurate. Hate the herald. It is the rag the record American used to be.

      1. I have noticed that network news likes to tease weather stories with: “Bomb Cyclone!”, “Polar Vortex!”, “Atmospheric River!”

  25. And a quicker mover so really can’t dump all that much. I would say looks like a 6-8 maybe 10 inch system.

  27. The models just can’t get a hold on that northern stream.

    I’m not going to yet allow my anticipation to soar. I need to see this consistently amongst many runs.

  31. Not sure when it was from, but internet (Boston.com) had note today that this storm will not be a blockbuster and had a 25% chance of being a 3 inch plus plowable snow. Last point seems like a NWS data point. Is this old news based on now changed model?

    2. You are right. I was 14 so remember it very well. We were in North Conway skiing and I threatened my parents with leaving the family if we were not home in time to watch. Key message is I was a 14 year old 👿

      No googling. Does anyone know the first song they sang ?

  34. One thing for certain is whatever snow falls will stay on the ground for quite awhile. It won’t be for just a couple days like the precious few events so far. I get the impression that temps are going to be well below normal around here for the remainder of the month, maybe even into early March.

    1. Below normal yes, but barely. Average is around 36-38 degrees. Plus the sun angle is getting higher. I see temps around freezing.

  36. One problem with upcoming storm….
    due to the upper air configuration, the storm looks to slide
    by just South of us or even perhaps over us. But either
    way it will be sliding more West to East rather than SW to NE.
    This keeps us in the heavier precip for a shorter period and also minimizes any backlash precip, thus lower totals.

    Euro is up next. 🙂

  37. Good to see most of the TV mets avoiding forecast temptations. All mention an event … one going no further than that and a couple saying it could be rain or snow or nothing.

    For now anyway, we can all engage in best-guess-casting … and yes it’s fun.

    1. I mean, if this were 5 days out, I would agree. We’re getting close though, approaching 3 days out so there should be more than guessing going on IMO.

      1. Based on time to go, true.

        But, based on a lack of consistency on the models GFS/Euro vs Canadian/UkMet, they should be treading very carefully.

        1. That was my first thought also. If I have learned nothing else on this blog, it is that there is no second guessing Choices our Mets make.

  38. I am beginning to wonder if this upcoming event may be the last opportunity of the season for Boston just to get into double digits never mind “normal” snowfall. TK has been advertising mostly “dry” conditions for quite awhile thereafter. Who knows about March.

    1. 9.0” = 1936-37
    2. 9.2” = 2023-24*
    3. 9.3” = 2011-12

        1. It’s not even really a camp. It’s practical weather prediction vs. anticipation not based on science. 🙂

          I will always take the side of science.

  39. I think seven year old rikyn mac is showing potential as a future weather forecaster. She just ran through to go upstairs to change and said ….its cold but it’s hot

    She was wearing shorts and a tank top but truthfully…..sun is hot but air is cold. She nailed it 😉

  41. Hole punch clouds are fascinating but also fairly common. I have many photos. I have a spectacular sunrise version I’ll share soon.

  42. Very positive news for Shayla. From my niece and Shayla’s aunt who just spoke to her brother.

    Quick Shayla update. Looks like her fever is gone for now and she’s looking great. They plan to do more blood work next week. No update on the second lumbar puncture from yesterday yet.

    Thank you to everyone for your prayers and positive thoughts.

      1. It sure is. And if the lumbar results come back with no bacteria that will be awesome. Seven days is a long time for a baby to have a fever but her care seems excellent.

  43. The focus should be on Tuesday.

    Beyond, lots of smaller disturbances in a fast NW flow.

    Those should be fun to track.

    In general, smaller clipper type systems, with any one of them capable of a high end low to low end moderate snow potential should they get a little Atlantic moisture entrained.

      1. The frustration aspect of clipper systems is that EVERYTHING has to be timed just right. They usually don’t come together especially here in SNE. I don’t know exactly why though.

        1. I always say that clippers track farther North than modeled, except when they don’t and track farther South. 🙂

  45. Thank you TK!

    Grateful for decent weather today as my church is hosting our Night to Shine event. It is prom for our special needs community and my favorite event.

    Vicki, I am so happy that Shayla is improving.

    1. Thank you and what an amazing event for your church to host. I’m grateful that you have this weather also

    1. Oh, I see I was DEAD WRONG. Oh well, I was never into the Beatles anyway. 🙂 🙂 Yeah, I know…. But it is what it is or WAS. 🙂

      1. As I posted earlier, the TV mets are staying away from a snow map so far. They are being well-behaved for the moment.

  48. We have a decent consensus on a reasonable track at this point. I wouldn’t be surprised to see snow maps by tomorrow AM if nothing changes with the 00z runs.

  50. Three 12Z models, three different outcomes.

    Still nothing that is satisfactory consensus between guidance and still not enough run to run consistency.

    Tomorrow should start to focus in more.

      1. Yes, but they haven’t been that close together for enough runs. I mean the GFS has changed it’s snowfall forecast by 19 inches over 2 days, and 10 inches over the last day.

        The Euro hasn’t been as while but hasn’t been much better.

        We don’t have anywhere near what we need yet. NWS mentioned the same thing in their discussion with the expectation we’ll still see model swings. Keep in mind these are just computer simulations and really can’t be taken as a picture of what will happen. They’re just a picture of what the program comes up with given the input data. 🙂

    1. I liked some of them for sure, don’t get me wrong, but I liked harder stuff. I was a Rolling Stones fan. I saw them live at the Boston Garden in 1965, 🙂 I was the only one of all my friends who liked the stones. 🙂 Oh well.

  52. Thanks TK.

    Believe someone mentioned a “Goldilocks” track yesterday and a legit SNE snow threat? 😉 obviously no change to my thinking with that, and think it’s becoming more likely that many areas including Boston are in line for significant snow.

    JP Dave – I saw your comment yesterday asking about my view of the mountains outside LA. The answer is yes, I actually live almost due south of Mount Baldy (Mount San Antonio) in Rancho Cucamonga, CA. And let me tell you, it is a spectacular view with the snow cover. However, I’ve only gotten glimpses of it the past couple days because we’re still getting a lot of orographic cloud cover against the mountains with the lingering moisture and instability here. But I will definitely try to grab some pictures with the sunnier weather we’re expecting this weekend!

    1. WxWatch, That would be fantastic. I anxiously await those.
      You might know this, I posted a screen capture from Mountain High Resort with a mountain in the back drop. I surmised that it was Mt. San Antonio, but it could have been any number of 9,000 foot plus peaks in the San Gabriels. Do you happen to know it it was? The shot was from Upper Chisolm trail at Mountain high.

      I’ll find and link it again here.

      https://ibb.co/KVyb7p9

      Many thanks

      1. Yep, I’m at about 1100′, north sides of the town are higher. It actually is not too dissimilar to that picture, the snow level the other day got to about 3500-4000′, which is maybe a little lower than in that picture. In extremely rare cases (like last year, for about 20 minutes lol), the snow level can get all the way down to my elevation. But anything below 3000′ is uncommon.

        I’m not actually sure what the peak is you posted, unfortunately my geographic knowledge is still a little limited in that extent since there are several big ones. Even though it is the tallest, Baldy is “hidden” from my view by the mountains in front of it combined with the curvature effect. But I will definitely grab some shots this weekend!

  53. With next week’s storm, I would also maintain that the biggest “threat” to snow potential in SNE is too far north of a track and associated mixing/rain issues…

  55. Rob of route 20 and western MA weather has potential numbers. I can’t find the twitter post yet. This came through on FB. What bugs me is several folks are naming him as the only accurate met around and one person said all of our local Mets are calling for only flurries. I’m hoping he respectfully corrects these folks

    https://imgur.com/a/X0Y0iXj

      1. We will see. I like him a lot. But as I said will lose some respect if he doesn’t correct folks on his post who are faulting other Mets.

    2. A lot of people are regularly full in on trashing the professionals as never being right. My guess is that most of these people don’t actually watch the professionals. 😉

      1. Exactly. I asked the woman who she heard say it would be only flurries. Politely but I had to work at being polite. My guess is that doesn’t surprise anyone. She didn’t like being asked. 👿

          2. ICON has been consistently delivering, run after run.

            For an ensemble mean, the Euro you posted below looks great as well.

            Let’s just get some consistency now for another 24 hours and I think we can lock this one in.

  57. I just saw this comment on social media…

    “I already put away my plow in Massachusetts. Everybody said we were going to get hammered. There was only one storm with plowing this winter.”

    I thought about replying, but why bother? He’ll probably be pulling the plow out of storage 3, 4, 5 times between now and the actual end of winter. That’ll be the only replies needed. 😉

    1. Ummmmmm more than one storm here required plowing. Yea, good plan….let him pull it out. And I know I should take my own advice and ignore it. But I detest people openly criticizing meteorologists who take their forecasts to heart. I’d do that with any profession but thankfully most are not in the forefront.

      1. He didn’t say. But even if it was a place where he only plowed once, it’s very unwise to make that move in MA in EARLY February. History will prove that to be the wrong move about 95% of the time. The halfway point of winter is February 3. And it does NOT matter what the first half was like. It’s like nobody learns one of the biggest lessons we ever got in that. 2015.

      1. While it may snow very hard for a time, I believe 6-12″ is going to be the ceiling in this event just given how quickly the system is moving.

    1. First winter was cancelled, now spring is. 😉
      Hell, let’s just cancel 2024. 😉 BAHAHA

    2. Of course, someone might want to tell him that Spring doesnt actually start until March 19, but regardless….the Euro Weeklies continue to look chilly for the next 6 weeks.

    3. You know how they have to keep reminding people not to drive through flood waters with “Turn around, don’t drown.” I wonder if there’s a “Make a U-turn, don’t burn” campaign.

  62. Bernie Rayno
    @AccuRayno
    1h

    Is it so hard to believe that someone ( meaning me) is willing to try to forecast not what the models are showing 3 and 1/2 days prior to a storm but what they think is going to happen based on simple meteorology?

    1. What I like about Bernie is his blunt honesty regarding whatever he thinks.

      And his old AccuWeather blooper reels are hilarious. 🙂

  64. Saw a couple of snow maps on ABC (CH 7) tonight. Euro: 7″ and GFS: 8.”

    Both looking a little oversold to me.

  77. I am still thinking the same way … I won’t believe much of anything about forecasted amounts, be it rain or snow, for my area until the Sunday AM runs.

  80. Still on track generally speaking, 6z GFS still a banger

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2024021006&fh=81&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    10:1 snow

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2024021006&fh=93&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    00z euro looks stronger but a little south from 12z, I struggle to believe 12 inches in NY with that airmass in place. But others might disagree so not sure if it a good solution or not

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2024021006&fh=93&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    6z NAM is long range but also looks south

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2024021006&fh=81&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

  83. Don’t ignore the Canadian model. That suppressed scenario is still entirely on the table too.

  85. If the suppression scenario backs off, then we need to examine those boundary layer temps.

    I’m seeing 33F on the GFS, which could cause a projected 6-10 to end up being a very compacted, plastery 3-5.

    I hope after this storm in the following 4-6 weeks, we get one snowfall where it’s in the teens or 20s. I miss this type of event.

  86. Those powdery snow events much easier to shovel. With those temperatures this will be that heavy wet snow.

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