Saturday February 10 2024 Forecast (8:05AM)

316 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 10-14)

A very mild Saturday is the feature for this weekend. Although today may start with dense fog in some locations, this will burn off and a sun/cloud mix is going to be met with temperatures rising to the 40s on the South Coast and 50s elsewhere. A couple locations may challenge records, set just last year, but I think they will fall short of those values. Example: Record high at Boston (Logan) is 60. I think they will peak at 57 or 58. Records or not, it will be a very nice mid winter day, feeling spring-like. Tonight, a cold front swings through the region with some rain showers, but this front is not delivering a quick shot of cold so I’m not expecting any black ice issues as low temperatures should remain above freezing generally across the region. In fact, behind the cold front, Sunday will still be a fairly mild day compared to the long term averages for the date, but we won’t challenge any records. Also, expect a dry day with sun and passing clouds. Colder air will continue to filter into the region gradually as we move through Sunday night and Monday. But once again, as we’ve seen many times this winter, the polar jet stream remains to our north, and the cold air delivery will be modest. This is also important in terms of our next storm threat, which we start to see increasing clouds from during Monday. Low pressure is going to be moving from the Tennessee Valley into the Appalachian Mountains late Monday. A redevelopment of this low pressure area will take place along the Atlantic Coast late Monday night and early Tuesday, after which it will track south of New England. The track of this low pressure area and its precipitation swath is key to our rain vs snow and snowfall accumulation forecast for the storm system, which is only going to be about a 12 hour event from pre-dawn to late afternoon on Tuesday. There are basically 2 main scenarios that can take place as I see it now. Scenario 1 is a low that develops near the Delmarva region and tracks just to the south of New England. This scenario would have the potential to see the precipitation start as rain along the coast, especially the South Coast, with a bit warmer lower atmosphere from a slightly stronger onshore flow (keeping in mind we’re lacking significant cold what the polar jet would have helped provide). The storm dynamics would still overcome this and flip those areas to snow, with a general snow event for the rest of the region. Snow-to-water ratios would be under 10:1 for most of the region in this scenario, with a ballpark guess for snowfall amounts being 2-4 inches along the South Coast and 4-8 inches for the balance of the region. Scenario 2 would be a low pressure system that redevelops a little further south, maybe northeastern NC or southern VA, then tracks a little further south of our region. While this would be a slightly colder scenario (but again not that much colder with the lack of the cold air from the polar jet), it would be cold enough to be basically a snow event for the entire region, but with a suppressed precipitation shield compared to scenario 1. This would result in lower snowfall amounts most on the order of 2-4 inches in southern NH and north central to northeastern MA with 4-8 inches being a good first guess for the remainder of the region. I don’t think this event lasts long enough and is heavy enough for enough time for anybody to hit double-digit snowfall amounts, even in the “snowiest” scenario for any given location. So for now, these ballpark snow guesses based on the 2 outlined scenarios will sit in this discussion and I’ll add updated forecast amounts to the detailed forecast on tomorrow morning’s blog update (sooner in the comments section if I feel more confident about how it plays out by tonight). Another aspect of the coming storm will be a coastal flood threat as astronomical tides will be high at the time of the storm’s passage. The Tuesday high tide is the most threatening for flooding issues. Regardless of the storm’s track and resultant impact, we see it depart late Tuesday, and Valentine’s Day Wednesday will be fair and cold, along with a gusty wind – finally feeling like mid winter around here.

TODAY: Areas of fog until mid morning, otherwise a sun/cloud mix with most sun late morning and more clouds this afternoon. Late-day rain showers southwestern NH and central MA. Highs 45-52 South Coast and tip of Cape Ann MA, 52-59 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with rain showers early to mid evening. Partly cloudy late evening and overnight. Lows 33-40. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW, a few higher gusts possible.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 27-34. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

MONDAY: Increasing high clouds. Highs 40-47. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Thickening overcast. Rain/mix/snow likely toward dawn. Lows 30-37. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Overcast. Rain/mix/snow becoming all snow, ending by late-day. Temperatures steady 30-37. Wind NE 10-20 MPH, shifting to N.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 15-22. Wind NW 10-20 MPH. Wind chill below 10.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH. Wind chill near to below 20 at times.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 15-19)

Watching for another possible low pressure area to bring a mix/snow chance around February 16 to early February 17 but this remains low confidence and the system may be further south. Fair weather to end the period. Temperatures below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 20-24)

2 potential snow threats to start and end the period with below normal temperatures. A suppressed storm track pattern is still possible as well (where those systems would stay to the south).

316 thoughts on “Saturday February 10 2024 Forecast (8:05AM)”

  3. Joshua should get the ice build he’s looking for with this pattern. And like Phillip said yesterday the snow isn’t vanishing right away either.

    1. All the shallow ponds around here are generally ice covered with deeper ones not really. Those will ice over in the pattern that arrives midweek. The water temperatures in these ponds are at least close to 39F, which is the temp the water body needs to be at before the top can start to freeze over.

  6. Good morning and thank you TK.

    I completely understand those scenarios. however, when I look at this, I still see another issue regardless of precipitation type and that is the track of the storm being more West to East keeping us in the heavier precipitation for a shorter period coupled with
    the fast forward speed of the system. It may snow extremely heavily for a time, but just not long enough to lay down a deep snow cover.

    I like your 4-8 inches preliminary estimate. Most reasonable.

    The way this Winter has gone, I am looking for ways we
    will get SCREWED with this one.

    1. A track more to the North resulting in mostly rain
    2. A track far enough South for mostly a miss
    3. A perfect tract, except the boundary layer keeps it RAIN a long the coast because the wind is too strong (alluded to by TK above)

    Of course anything and everything in between 1 and 2 is possible.
    SO far, anyway, models are looking good.

    Can we keep it that way, that is the big question

    current ocean temperature off of Boston is 40.6
    Keep that in mind with a freshening East to NE wind!

  8. Thanks TK.

    The tv Mets continue to NOT put up snow amounts. It would seem that management no longer has the upper hand?

    1. Most will have to have them up by tonight is my best guess. At that point, we’re 60 hours out, so I think it’s time as far as TV media goes. The mets will have enough confidence to balance what the “boss” wants. I generally use 48 as a solid deadline for amounts, 60 is good with a more confident scenario. Ballpark #’s can come before that, such as you see in my discussion. We’re 68 to 70 hours from precipitation onset in this region.

    1. Thanks Jimmy. I have absolutely no memory of the event. All I know is that I was in my early 20s at the time.

    2. I don’t recall this one either but am betting it’s one of the times I had the driveway shoveled before mac got the 40 year old ariens started.

  14. Quick peak of the 6z EURO on the cod site it goes bonkers for my area with close to a foot and a half of snow. I thought I was looking at the NAM for a minute as that is the model that goes bonkers with snowfall amounts. The cod site has the kuchera snowfall and not the 10:1 like the Pivotal site has.

    1. The 10:1 amounts on the 06z ECMWF are actually a little lower than the Kuchera #’s.

      That model has a high & tight storm track though. I am not so sure that’s what we get here.

  17. One thing you haven’t heard on any discussions yet that I’m going to throw out there. There’s a lead low pressure system that is going to move through the Southeast / Mid Atlantic tomorrow that may have an impact on the details of the set-up for the follow-up system. I’ve noticed that this system is progged by some guidance to be a little stronger than it previously had. That will make a difference, though maybe just subtly, in the behavior of the follow-up. I’m not going to ignore this piece to the puzzle.

      1. Another subtle but possible impact is that the NAM so far in its 12z run has a slightly stronger and slightly further south high pressure area between the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley than it had on the previous run as the storm is evolving in the lower Mississippi Valley early Monday. Again it’s early, and I’m going by NAM which is not always trustable that far out, but it does depict a scenario in which a slightly more elongated low is slightly further south, and for Boston (areas north of I-90) you see an even shorter duration event with more snow toward the South Coast.

  18. Here are the record highs for this date.

    BOS 60 in 1990 and 2023
    BDL 62 in 2023
    PVD 64 in 2023
    ORH 56 in 2023

    Best chance to break: Worcester.

  19. NAM is basically a miss for Boston north. Start of a trend? We shall see, nothing would surprise me this winter.

      1. I’ve found myself getting a bit more into birds (and flowers). Maybe it’s a trend for us only semi-young folks. 🙂 I’ll have to check that out.

        1. It’s an amazing app. And so far has been 100%. Gives you pics as you can see but opens with information about each bird. Does sound and picture ID

  23. Continuing with what HADI said, the NAM is going down under and not particularly strong either NO pinks like on some of the other models.

    surface

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2024021012&fh=75&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Snow

    https://www.weather.gov/images/box/winter/StormTotalSnowWeb.jpg

    Hadi asks if this is a trend. Well we’ll have to see some more models, but I don’t like this! Am I surprised? Nope, not in the slightest!

    Let’s see what the RDPS and ICON show as they will be out soon. 🙂

  28. Can we define a trend for the NAM off the 12z NAM.

    It’s 00z NAM at 84 hrs wasn’t far enough into the storm to see where it would have projected the snow into southern New England at a later time.

    I feel like the 12z was the first time the NAM got to a time where we could see where it brought the snow into New England

  30. Thanks, TK.

    Regarding upcoming snow, well, I’m not expecting much here in Boston. Certainly nothing to `write home about.’

    Regarding colder temps and a sustained period of cold moving forward, this is good news

    Regarding ice, outside of Boston, yes, it will build. But here in town, no. With the exception of the Esplanade Lagoon (shallow) and close to the river shore we really are done with substantial ice formation for the season.

    When I lived in Needham, Milton and Brookline it was quite different. More ice and more snow than here in the heart of the city. Every year, even during a mild winter. This year the differences may be a bit magnified.

    And, while my weather observations may be off base, trust me on the ice build-up. It is REALLY hard in mid to late February and beyond UNLESS you have a base. We have none at all here, and haven’t had any ice in weeks. I mean zilch in terms of an ice base.

    1. We have a paper thin layer of ice on lakes out here. Lots of holes. About a decade ago, ice started forming late even north of here. Lovell pond in fryeburg and a pond behind Mac’s uncles place in Stowe were my sources. Both families had owned the properties for decades. My son in law stopped trying to keep a back yard rink frozen about a decade ago too b

  33. Hahahahahahahaha !!!

    12z stuff off to a great start !

    Very consistent 🙂 🙂 🙂

    3 models, 3 different scenarios.

  37. I am waiting for a model that has the grip of a great white shark on this storm. I wonder how long I’ll have to wait…?

      1. It is, technically, but it basically doesn’t kill the primary. It just merges them into one low that’s too far north, and too strong.

  44. The RDPS which was suppressed.

    Going back and forth vs the running GFS, the RDPS definitely has the southern stream disturbance further south than the GFS has it in the 48-60 hr time frame, while the system is west of New England.

  46. The northern stream flow btwn the RDPS and GFS doesn’t look different but the southern stream location of its disturbance and its intensity is wildly different.

    So, which take is correct ?????

    1. So, if the models maintain little consistency, we can at least verify in 48 hrs which outcome is most likely when we see where the low is around the lower Mississippi valley, because I believe that’s where the differences arise.

      If it’s in the gfs location, snow. If it’s in the RDPS location, disappointment.

      I’d like to think the models would figure it out in the next 48 hrs, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the inconsistencies continued.

      1. I think we should go with the trend and the trend is for us
        to get SCREWED OUT OF SNOW!!!!
        I’d like to be surprised with a big snow event. We shall see.

        OK GDPS/CMC Canadian up next. 🙂

        1. 🙂

          I’m not sure I see a trend one way or the other, but I do agree with the run we’ve been on the last 2 winters, there’s a part of my brain telling me not to get too excited.

  49. GFS Kuchera Snow

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2024021012&fh=93&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Even though all snow in Boston, just moving too FAST!

    10:1 snow

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2024021012&fh=93&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Snow ratio

    Snow ratio at heaviest point, generally 6-8:1
    6:1 in Boston. That is CEMENT!!!!!

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=ratioku&rh=2024021012&fh=75&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

  52. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=500wh&rh=2024021012&fh=60&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=500wh&rh=2024021012&fh=60&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    Here’s when the system is still southwest of us at hr 60. Difference in disturbance strength and location.

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2024021012&fh=60&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2024021012&fh=60&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    Above is how that difference looks at the surface.

    1. The precip shield on the gfs at this time is 100 miles north into central Ohio vs the RDPS and the 500 mb feature is a nearly closed off feature at 543 dm, while the RDPs disturbance is around 549 dm and much less closed off.

  54. Early thoughts on guidance (12z)…

    NAM: Interesting idea, for how far out it is, this is a scenario I have been somewhat envisioning, so I won’t toss it.

    GDPS / RDPS: Too far south.

    GFS: Too far north and TOO much precip.

    ICON: Hahaha!!!

  55. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=icon&p=500wh&rh=2024021012&fh=60&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    The other hit for New England, the icon also at hr 60 has a closed off low at 500 mb even stronger 540 dm.

    In my opinion, this is it.

    Is it closed off or almost so like the gfs and the icon or is it not like the rdps?

    I’m guessing if it’s closed off, it moves slightly slower in the flow, hanging back just enough to get a slight tug northward by the northern jet, which is trying to dig.

    If it’s not cut off and weaker, it moves slightly faster and gets out before the polar jet can slightly start to dig.

  56. I will not be disappointed whatsoever with a “lesser” event.

    Mom’s transfer to rehab can be today, tomorrow, Monday, maybe even Tuesday. If it’s the last of those, I’d really like them not to have to do it in a nasty event.

    I also have Bruins tickets Tuesday night and I’d like to go see the game without much difficulty. So… Yeah! 🙂

    1. I can understand that TK, if it ends up being Tuesday.

      Whenever your mom does move to rehab, hope that process goes well and in general, I hope she is feeling better !!

    2. I remember well having to get Mac in and out of Dana Boston in fen 2015 and hoping we didn’t have more snow

      I hope the facility can plan her move prior to a storm. But I know how that works so wish you the very best. How does your mom feel about a rehab?

    3. I have to drive into Boston for Tuesday evening as well, so I’m hoping for whatever-it-is not to get any later.

  58. TK, my thoughts are with your Mom. Glad she’s recovering. Good luck with her rehabilitation. She’s a strong woman.

  59. Thanks TK. Glad to hear your mom is moving out of the hospital.

    Sunny and 51F here in Coventry. Still a few small scattered patches of snow left in the shade in the backyard. Fortunately we will get a refresh (to some level) on Tuesday.

  60. Logan at 51 as of 11 a.m.

    They have about 3 hours to climb 10 degrees to break the record of 60 from 1990 & 2023. I’m going to say they make it to 57 or 58 and come to stop, then coast down slowly into evening as we’ll still be in the “warm” sector with a southwest breeze.

  62. So much for my thoughts about being able to look this in at today’s 12z runs…..

    Still happy to see the GFS/Euro/Icon showing a sizable hit for Tuesday. I have no doubt the Icon will start to trend south with future runs. It’s the suppressed solutions on the Canadian model suite and NAM that give me pause. That said, pretty confident on plowable snow most places. Even the suppressed solutions deliver a few inches, at least in areas south of the Pike.

    1. The Ukmet is about to commence and the KING EURO is coming out a bit later. Can we still call it the KING? or Prince or Duke?

  63. 12z GFS says let’s do it all over again next weekend!

    This coastal storm for next Sunday….

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2024021012&fh=198&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=prateptype_cat-imp&m=gfs

    It’s got another snow event the following week as well.

    The pattern we have been waiting for is finally here folks!!

    Still a week out on that next storm and suppression is a threat with that one but I think we are going to have plenty of chances to track the rest of this month into March…

      1. yup, I also posted below as I had it ready but just posted it without seeing this.

        Don’t know what the issue is with Pivotal Weather

  68. Still pretty confident on a widespread significant (6″+) snow after looking at all the data but yes, still a touch too early to “lock it in”

    TK this storm is hauling….should be tapering off in Boston by 4-5PM? You might be in OK shape for the game by then as long as the roads are treated. Looks like the worst accumulation might be over by early PM. And hopefully they can move your mom Monday.

    1. Yes, I think that will be the case.

      I like the preliminary #’s I posted above.

      Still remains to be seen when they move her anyway. I suspect they want to do a test that requires a day or so of prep, so it may delay her transfer a bit anyway.

  69. Next week – President’s Day weekend – I’ll be in Philadelphia seeing my sister.

    Will the possibility of a suppressed system mean that it’s more of a Mid-Atlantic than a SNE hit?

    1. Verbatim on that 12z GFS run, snow to rain in Philly. If a more suppressed solution, then yes, I would think a better chance for a pure snowstorm there.

  76. We’ve got snowfall predictions coming soon. TK does the right thing by waiting a bit longer. Nevertheless, the maps are coming.

    How about SB predictions? I think it’ll be a blowout victory for SF. The team is due for a good start to a game (twice in a row they’ve begun poorly) and, frankly, they’re better at almost every position. I’m going 31-10.

    2. SF 24 / KC 15

      This prediction was gotten this way: My friend went through the McD’s drive thru using the app last week and her voice code for her order was KC15. I went through the drive thru the next day to get a coffee, and my voice code was SF24. 🙂

        1. It KC wins I’ll jump out a window. It may only be a foot from the ground but I will anyway. Detest mahomes. And BIL lives outside of SF. Two good reasons. Although if it were a team other than SF I’d still root against KC.

          SF 27/KC 21

    1. OUTSTANDING!!!!!!

      Great news!

      Now, you can board the SNOW train with us, oh except for your Bruins game. No worries, it will be well out of here before game time!

  81. REALLY disappointed in Pivotal Weather. What a time to NOT deliver model output. I wonder what the issue is????

        1. I see they’ve gone up. They’re still not getting a new record. If they do, I’ll drink a bottle of dihydrogen monoxide. 🙂

  83. TK, LOVE how you arrived at your prediction.

    I dreamed that I was McCaffrey the other day. It was really weird. I’m a small guy, more Woody Allen build than a football player. Even with pads if I took one snap and ran with the ball I’d be dead.

    1. The mail carrier I saw on my walk earlier (young lady) was wearing a #15 KC jersey. I wonder who she’s rooting for. 😉

  84. To TK: As you well-know, the outcome of this next storm and the SB are entirely dependent on today’s 3:30 B’s game. The relationship is direct and causal.

  85. I think my thermometer isn’t working. Thanks for letting me know, JP Dave. My thermometer now says 58F, but it is NOT 58F. No station around here is above 55F.

  87. If you’re into model hugging, this isn’t the storm for you … at least at this point. If one takes it north, another takes it south. Getting modeled out!

  88. That 12z European model reminds me of some of the maps I drew in school when I was supposed to be taking notes. 😉

    If that verified, the Bruins game would probably be postponed. 😛

  92. An all out crushing on the 12z Euro for Eastern MA.

    I honestly do not think those numbers are achievable given how fast this system is moving but 1-2″/hour snow rates for 4 or 5 hours with this one could definitely get a lot of people to double digits.

  94. Thanks TK!

    I’ll go ahead and be that guy: my early over/under for Boston Logan is 9”. And I do think whoever ends up in the “jackpot” will be higher, it’s just too early to say where. But I have liked the look of this storm for SNE snow for several days.

    Obviously duration is going to be a limiting factor and will put somewhat of a ceiling on totals. But rates are likely to be exceptional for a time. Will likely be a very fun storm for the snow loving crowd there 😉

      1. Yeah, how’s that mid-February pattern change looking now 😉

        And really, the best is yet to come. This is almost more of a “bonus” storm right on the leading edge of the real pattern change. The deck is stacked for above normal snow in SNE for several weeks to come…

        1. Bring it on. I am very intrigued by the President’s weekend storm threat as well…I think there is high potential for someone in the mid Atlantic or Northeast to get a lot of snow with that one.

        2. If you think for one second that the taylor-travis relationship is anything other than a PR stunt, then
          I am disappointed. 🙂

    3. Taylor Swift, eh?
      Good for you! Take good care of her. Hey, wait, aren’t you married with children? Shame on you! 🙂 🙂 🙂

      1. No, I am divorced but do have a long term girlfriend so essentially the same thing. But she said she will let me have Taylor on the side if I allow her to date Brady so I told her deal.

  96. On another subject, it is 59 here in JP

    Logan is coming in at 56

    Norwood airport is also 59

    Nashua is 60 and Manchester is 61!!

  97. 56 @ Logan now. 2PM. There’s a clearer area in the cirrus deck coming up, so they get “brighter” sun, but too little too late, and not enough warm advection to push them to record status. I’ll stick with my prediction of 57 or 58 for a maximum temp. The 60 degree readings to the north are not really a surprise to me. That was the best place to be for a shot.

    We’ll know for sure by 4P on Logan.

    1. Pretty bright sunshine here, even if through “some” cirrus.
      59 and waiting for it to touch 60 at any moment. )

    2. What I like about today is the dp is about 40F, so it feels mild.

      Sometimes it’s 60F but the dp is 7F and it still feels kinda cool/chilly.

  99. As I was walking along, I saw a couple bugs and even a mosquito I believe. It would seem that the insects have already given up on winter as well.

  102. 12z Euro at the end of its run is so close to a behemoth East coast storm….speed up that trailing piece of energy a bit more and Cowabunga!

    Pattern is ripe moving forward for sure…..as expected 🙂

  103. I just set my display to tenths. So I am only at 59.7

    I was afraid of that. I like the tenths to really see upward and downward trends instantly without having to wait for full degrees. 🙂

    1. That kind of covers the high end of my 4-8 from both scenarios.

      And this model typically overdoes snowfall at this range, so this isn’t necessarily a bad depiction of the potential.

      2. A couple of my long-time colleagues label him as either Mr. Drama or one of the bigger hype-masters out there. I’ve never found much of what he says is of any value, so I tend not to pay attention to him.

  109. So one run of one model shows something, and because it’s dramatic, it suddenly becomes what’s gonna happen.

    Damn, I’ve been doing weather all wrong for YEARS! 😉

    The weather related internet is undergoing its own bombogenesis based solely on the 12z European model. Gotta love it. 😉

  110. Looks like that brighter, slightly higher angle sun got them to 59. Will they tie? Time’s running out fast! The stronger wind didn’t hurt either.

      2. Not by posters here but by Maue and other folks. Not sure what their credentials are but had thought they were reliable. Seems they must get paid by using scary weather buzz words.

    2. Ever notice that there’s a tendency for it to be “uncertain” when there is actual inconsistency, but as soon as one model has one run that shows “the biggie” those same people suddenly seem a lot more confident. 😉 Nope. That’s called “wish-casting” and the internet is populated by many of them. The rest of us know better. 🙂

      1. I have a tendency to wish cast, but even when I do, I KNOW better. 🙂 🙂 🙂
        I am wishing for the big storm, but temper my wishes with a healthy dose of reality. I am waiting and a hoping. 🙂

        1. There’s a difference between wishing for it to work out so you get the big snow you wanna see, and going online picking out the worst-case model scenario and writing posts that convince people the end of the world is coming. In my view, what you do and what “they” do are entirely different things.

      2. Well this is only the 2nd run of the 12km NAM that has the entire storm in it, so can’t really pick out a trend here yet.

    2. Not really. They express the uncertainty even in their 3:30PM discussion. So here, the key words with the watch are “watch” and “possible”. This is not too early to issue the watch, but the folks out there have to understand the difference between watch and warning. We know it here, but I fear a lot of the public still doesn’t.

      1. Totally agree. Watches can be changed to advisories or even taken down altogether. 🙂

        I hate it when a WARNING goes out and does NOT materialize. 🙂

      1. Regionwide (wherever the watch is), a 6 inch range makes sense this far out. I’d do the same thing if I wrote that. 🙂

    2. I’ll take the 1 degree error and this missed record if that’s the case.

      I was definitely NOT feeling any overachieving on this one.

  114. Looking at the early panels of the 18Z RDPS, I would say that
    it is “looking” like it wants to come farther North. Of Course I could be all wet. We shall see shortly.

  115. Ok. I’m about to head out to drop clothes off at rehab, then drive to central MA to bring some needs to a sick friend, then to make a visit to another, then eventually I’ll find my way back to WH.

    I’ll probably be a bit absent over the next 6 hours, but I’ll check in with the 00z stuff.

    1. 18 RDPS SNOW

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2024021018&fh=84&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

      12Z Snow

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2024021012&fh=90&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=snku_acc-imp&m=rdps

      Just a wee bit of a difference even if the totals are not up to the others.

      The import thing here is that 2 of the “Suppressed” models are bringing 4 inches to Boston. That is a significant improvement.

      Now let’s make more improvements with the 0Z runs!!!!!

  119. Interesting….
    Things are beginning to line up.

    On the 18Z runs we have 2 of the suppressed systems move North
    and the 1 model that was too far North has moved SOuth.

    Add to that, the NWS has issued a Winter Storm Watch.

    Certainly getting interesting and to add a cherry on top
    the Euro is throw fits of snow our way.

    1. No surprises there. Looking at the ICON and CMC ensembles earlier, you could tell that the CMC suite was going to correct north and the ICON correct south.

      Everything is coalescing on the Euro/GFS solution and falling into line. Now……. what else could go wrong?? 🙂

  121. Away at basketball games, love seeing some consistencies. This smells like a SNE special. Let’s see what the 00z runs have tonight.

  124. 18z GFS is about what I expected to see.

    No double digits. Too fast. You can find a couple 10 & 11 in the roll-over, but that’s the over-forecast tendency of the guidance at this range. No changes to the discussion from this morning.

    Re-evaluation late tonight.

  125. I’m seeing a general area with most of MA noting a possible 3 or 4 plus. Good way IMO to get the word out without specific numbers. Other two stations I checked still had morning report.

    At least one of these mentioned keeping an eye south of pike. I’ve heard that in other discussions. Works for me

    1. Thank you but this has to take time and you have a ton on your hands. I’m good at calling and setting up services. TK can give you my email if you need any help

      1. Thanks vicki, you’re the best! Everything is covered for her home stuff as far as they tell us. It’ll definitely be a change of pace for the household to essentially be a nursing home for however long she has left, but we’ll try to make it as good as it can be!

  139. Hadn’t posted yet today, dealing with a lot. Aunt who broke her hip comes back home tomorrow. Unfortunately the whole hospital thing made her worse off so she’ll be needing 24/7 care. We’ll do it. But now we have no car because of the car accident and having to deal with insurance. Wish I had a rich relative or even a poor relative with a reliable car they don’t use lol

    1. Oh Dr s. I’m so sorry. Sadly the hospital thing has been doing that too often lately.

      Does your insurance cover rental. Or better yet if the others persons fault his insurance has to cover.

      Prayers for you all.

      1. Unfortunately we don’t have rental insurance BUT I’ll be calling on Monday about getting a rental based off of the accident report.

  140. Looking like up to a foot of snow of paste. As pretty as the trees will look, take care of those lower backs during clean up!

  141. A quick comment on the 00z info.

    It’s interesting to note the more southerly track and the lighter snow amounts on the NAM and the Canadian model products. GFS and ECMWF have pretty much lined themselves up. The ECMWF may be slightly poisoned by a little bit of convective feedback therefore the amounts on the top end are probably a little bit too high.

    The snow to water ratio for the event should be somewhere around 10 to 1 except maybe just a little bit lower than that closer to the south coast with a warmer atmosphere there.

    I do think rain may be involved for the early part of the storm along the south coast and maybe the early to mid part of the storm over outer Cape Cod and Nantucket and this is where my snow amounts will be the lightest in the upcoming update.

    I’m going to probably add a little bit to the totals from what I posted as my first guess. But I’m not going to go too high because this is a rather short duration event. I don’t know if we’re going to have intense enough snowfall rates to achieve double digit amounts anywhere.

    But there are still a couple of blog updates to come before we are really underway so there’s still time to tweak things.

    Regardless, this should be the final statement in the debate about calling winter off when it is halfway over. It should have never been a debate to begin with, but this will certainly bring it to an end. 😉

    1. Agree 100%. Many of us have been saying that the cold and snow are still to come and glad to see it finally occurring.

  142. As TK alluded to several days ago, the Northeastern U.S. may be decoupling, if you will, from Northwestern Europe in terms of weather pattern.

    During the past 9 weeks there’s been remarkable correlation in the pattern. As the Scottish forecaster Mark Vogan pointed out yesterday this looks like it’s coming to an end. Northwestern Europe will remains firmly in the grip of a mostly mild regimen. As Vogan said, even when they thought they’d flip to a colder scenario this month they haven’t at all. In fact, it will be warming even further this week with more record highs in store by next weekend (60s in many places).

    While we in the Northeast are definitely very mild right now, so we still `align,’ that will change this week, setting up a split in the airflow. Ours which has been surging across the Atlantic directly to the British Isles will no longer be the main driving force of their weather.

      1. I believe I read that cold should be coming shortly for Europe. The PV is splitting and dropping. Should get much colder.

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