Sunday February 11 2024 Forecast (7:36AM)

330 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 11-15)

We’re post cold front, but it’s not going to be that chilly a day today – noticeably cooler than yesterday, yes, but still above normal for the season. Cold air does drain in slowly, but it’s going to take its time doing so, using up all of the available time through Monday evening ahead of an approaching storm. So today, it’s a gusty breeze and a dry day to be had with a sun / cloud mix. Tonight we clear out, and Monday we see increasing high clouds ahead of the aforementioned storm system. Storm? What’s up with that? Hey now it’s winter in New England, and just because much of the region hasn’t seen much up until now, that means little or nothing going forward. Why? You remember the gradual transition pattern change I talked about? Well, it’s changed. And we have a winter storm inbound – one that’s going to have some impact on the entire region. One change I am making to the previous forecast is lessening the chance that any rain is involved. This because the precipitation onset is late enough (Tuesday morning) that it’ll be cold enough across virtually all of the region to support snow. And any areas along the South Coast that start as rain will flip to snow in fairly short order. The upcoming storm will produce a moderate to borderline heavy snowfall for the vast majority of the region. Only the immediate South Coast and especially Outer Cape Cod and Nantucket may come in on the lighter side, because of the milder atmospheric profile there making it harder for the snow to accumulate, with a lower snow to water ratio. The snowfall amounts in the detailed forecast will reflect that. The timing on the storm’s precipitation is generally about dawn to dusk Tuesday. A coastal flood threat exists for the Tuesday high tide, as the tides are astronomically high anyway, and it won’t take much to create splashover and some low lying inundation up to a foot or so. This should just be for one tide cycle though. Tuesday night, the storm’s gone. Midweek features mainly dry and cold weather, along with wind. Brr! The snow that falls Tuesday is not going to be going anywhere for a while.

TODAY: Partly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 27-34. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

MONDAY: Increasing high clouds. Highs 40-47. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Thickening overcast. Lows 30-37. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Overcast. Snow, may begin as rain along the South Coast and will likely start as rain over the islands where it will take longer to change to snow. Expected accumulations 1-3 inches Nantucket and Martha’s Vineyard, 3-6 Cape Cod and immediate South Coast of MA/RI/CT, 6-10 inches elsewhere, with isolated amounts of 10-12 inches probable. Temperatures steady 30-37 through midday, falling into the 20s by evening. Wind NE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible along the coast, shifting to N.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 15-22. Wind NW 10-20 MPH. Wind chill below 10.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH. Wind chill near to below 20 at times.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 13-20. Wind NW 5-15 MPH. Wind chill below 10.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 30-37. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 16-20)

Disturbance from the west brings snow showers to the region February 16. Storm system follows that up and brings a chance of snow on February 17. Fair, colder weather follows this and lasts through the rest of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 21-25)

Fair weather and below normal temperatures early through mid period. Winter storm threat later in the period.

330 thoughts on “Sunday February 11 2024 Forecast (7:36AM)”

  2. Model watchers:

    Key things to look for on the 12z guidance suite…
    -Consistency from the previous run
    -Continued general agreement GFS vs ECMWF
    -If Canadian model has made any shifts from its persistently less snowy/southerly track
    -3km NAM will finally include the entire storm / compare to 12km
    -If you have access to it, check the NBM snowfall forecast / this can be a good product about this time range
    -Check the ensembles for any global guidance and compare to operational

    1. I don’t think the banding needed for it will be organized enough for a high probability of it, but definitely a low probability exists. I didn’t mention it in today’s blog update, but if it still looks like a present potential in 24 hours, it’ll get mentioned.

  4. NOTE: The NWS snow map on the web page shows 2 different versions. The range is the newer one. The point forecast is the older one. My guess is there was an upload error on the point forecast. Ignore it until they match. You can tell by the color schemes if you go back and forth between the 2. The RANGE is more up to date as of 8:00 a.m. .. Hopefully they’ll catch it soon.

  6. Good morning and thank you TK

    Nws has a range of 8-12 inches acros the majority of SNE.

    When I hot up, I eas thinking 6-10 inches moght be the range. We shall see.

    6z gfs snow is down from 0z. Nam is down, however rdps is up and icon remains about the same.

    We’ll see what the 12z runs show.

    1. Not if I sit here and erase them as they come in. 😉 BAHAHAHA

      (Don’t worry, not gonna do that). 🙂

  8. Thanks TK

    From Bernie Rayno
    Large snow gradient across southern New England with this storm. Mixing across southern areas from HPN to south shore of MA will last well into the storm resulting in 1-3″/2-4″ meanwhile northern areas will thump snow with close to a foot

    1. I am not and have never been a fan of the term “thump” used for snow. I never use the term “front end thump” for example. It makes me cringe. 🙂 It was even difficult to just type it twice in this comment. 😛

        1. I have no idea why it has always annoyed the ever living hell out of me, ever since the day I first heard it.

          I probably used it a few times though before I realized how much I hated it. 🙂

  10. This is the run where, in theory, the NAM will become more reliable, as the storm is basically a wrap by hour 60.

  11. I’m all strapped in and ready for today’s model viewing.

    Uncle NAM is coming out know. I wonder what story he will tell us this morning?

  17. Super Bowl Predictions
    49ers win coin toss kickoff to Chiefs
    Chiefs score first in the game Isaiah Pacheco rushing touchdown
    49ers driving with under two minutes in the 4th QTR trying to tie the game turn the ball over on downs
    Chiefs kneel win 3rd Super Bowl in 5 years
    Patrick Mahomes MVP
    Chiefs 31 49ers 23

    1. Chiefs go up 15-0 in the first quarter and after getting cocky making an unneeded 2 pt conversion on the 2nd touchdown, forget to play the rest of the game and lose 24-15. 🙂

  18. Even the NAM now has a stronger, closed off 500 mb disturbance.

    I think the models are building to the event, now that the energy is out of the 4 corners region, they are getting a better idea of the potency of the system.

    The thing saving us from something monstrous is the speed.

    But within that 9-10 hr window of snow, I think there’s going to be an impressive 1-3” per hour hit for around 3-4 hrs.

      1. If this model does its “job”, it should be a bit further north and a bit more widespread with its 6+ snowfall forecast.

    2. And agree. It’s going to look like Armageddon, but NOT last long enough to give us a crippling blow. Just a friendly reminder
      that WInter is still here. 🙂

  21. I just placed a $100 prop bet with Caesar’s Palace on tonight’s game that the number of times that Taylor Swift will appear on our screens during the Super Bowl will exceed the number of posts on this Woods Hill Weather today in anticipation of the big storm. 🙂

    Thanks, TK!!!

    2. ha ha ha

      We have none of that, but my wife has 4 squares on the game to support MS.

      She has won this 2 out of the last 4 or 5 years since a person started in. She’s pretty lucky. We’ll see how she does today. 🙂

      Good luck with your prop bet, which I think is a joke….

      Either way enjoy the game!

      1. I work too hard for my money, JPD, to gamble. I will buy lottery tickets when the MegaMega gets close to $1 billion.
        I did play roulette once when I walked through Caesar’s last October when I was in Vegas to see U2.

    3. I wouldn’t bet on Taylor, or the game itself (not really a betting person), but if I had to guess, she’ll be on the screen 12 times maximum. Maybe even under 10 times. I’ll just go with 8. 😛

      And I already gave my game score prediction…
      SF 24
      KC 15

    5. We’ve placed a few bets AT Caesar’s Palace in the past.

      we were out there for the Super Bowl a couple of times and we placed a money line bet when New Orleans won it against Indy.
      That was a nice pay out!

  23. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2024021112&fh=54&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    I think the thing that’s left for me is ….. high tide is 1:30pm ish and I see some signs that the wind is still going to be onshore and that it’s building to the high tide, so that has my attention.

    But, the wind won’t have been building the ocean for 12-24 hrs before so maybe it won’t have enough time to build surge, though the 980 mb quickly falling pressure may just lift the ocean up on its own. I can see this surge anywhere btwn 1.5 and 3.5 ft depending on how fast the pressure falls and if the wind stays onshore right to high tide.

  24. By the way, TK, what is the WHW “record” for the number of posts in a single day/event? Do you know off-hand?

    1. I don’t know offhand. It would take some doing to find out, but maybe I’ll give it a shot soon.

  27. NAM surface & snowfall forecast is about where I figured it would be.

    Ok, time for a shopping errand and a walk… 🙂

      1. Basically. I did note that the 3km version of the NAM was slightly lower on snow totals than its 12km cousin, but not a huge difference. There’s a reason why I give snowfall forecast ranges. 🙂

  28. I’m also a bit concerned for all the usual south shore coastal towns for power. Marshfield, Scituate, Cohasset, Duxbury, etc ….

    4-6 or so inches of cement plastered on the trees within a few miles of the ocean and wind gusts for a few hrs at 40-maybe 50 mph. Well, I’ve been through that before down here and it usually doesn’t go well.

      1. Thanks !

        We’ve definitely experienced higher winds, but may need less depending on how much wet snow is on the trees.

  30. From Pete Bouchard

    Some roads will be impassable during the height of the storm from 8am-2pm Tuesday.

    White-outs and #thundersnow are possible in that time.

    Improving LATE evening Tuesday.

    Gusts on coast 40-55+. Cape gusts to 60+

    This is a #noreaster with #bombogenesis – expect the worst

  31. TK – The tv Mets show rain at the very beginning over much of eastern MA on their futurecasts and yet, you mention only for the South Coast if I understand your discussion above.

    2. I listened to 4,7,10. I am not as big a fan of 5

      4 and 10 said what I believe TK also said. Possible start as rain along the coast. 7 didn’t mention rain

      7 Melanie. No mention of rain
      4 lexie said COULD be a little mixing south coast
      Nbc10 David rain snow line along coast and could change to rain at times

      https://www.nbcboston.com/weather/

      https://www.cbsnews.com/boston/video/next-weather-wbz-morning-update-for-february-11-1/

      https://www.cbsnews.com/boston/video/next-weather-wbz-morning-update-for-february-11-1/

      1. We don’t watch the local news anymore, so I Only get the weather here and via the models etc. We watch the news on PBS.

        I won’t comment on reasons why, 🙂

        I do, however, get alerts on my phone from the CH 10 Mets. 🙂

    3. Those are often pulled straight from a model depiction. A few of them show a narrow ribbon of rain right along the leading edge of the precipitation which may or may not be the case. All that really indicates is marginal temperature conditions just prior to the start of the event. Some guidance is going to resolve that as rain, and some is going to resolve it as snow. That particular detail makes no difference in the outcome of this event.

    4. Either way, I don’t think it’s impactful, because it won’t be hours of rain at the start.

      As soon as the precip picks up at all, if it starts as sprinkles/light rain/mix, it will flip.

  32. With the snow being wet there will be power outages scattered about throughout SNE. Take it easy if you have to shovel. I like to call this cement snow when it is wet as it feels like you are moving cement.

    1. what could possibly go wrong now?
      I’ll tell you. I more Northerly track. 🙂 🙂 🙂
      I’m doing my best to PREVENT THAT!!!!!

      1. Introduce a brief stop (cutoff) of the precip along the most immediate part of the south coast is my guess on the most northerly solution.

        But even in that, they would catch a backlash of the comma head.

        I think your located in the right general area for this one.

        1. We shall see. Pretty warm still today. 🙂
          46 here MY wife is having a hard time understanding
          how it will snow. 🙂 🙂 🙂

          1. Understandable. Still quite mild.

            Glad the warmth fell on the weekend so those who work during M-F could enjoy it.

  38. Incidentally, where our storm is today poses a tornado threat, contoured at 5% by SPC across a decent amt of the south.

    1. Sure, but it has the meteorology of the system that we need. One simulation with some sort of variable in it that caused that snowfall distribution.

  46. If I am understanding things correctly, the last few models shown seem to have snow at 5-8 inches for my area. Are these outliers or less vital pieces. I am trying to understand the lingo but a lot of it is over my head. Thanks.

    1. Take the altogether and you come up with TK’s range
      of 6-10 inches. That looks very reasonable at the moment.
      Updates as required. 🙂

  48. All models appear to be in the vicinity of 972mb to 976mb
    on this system. That is decent consistency for sure. 🙂

  51. I think the feature of this event is the majority of snow, whatever it is, falls in a VERY SHORT window. Be it 4-7, 5-8, 6-10, 8-12, the vast majority of it may fall in 3-4 hrs. Whenever those few hrs occur Tuesday, that time period will feature significant impact.

    1. Agree! Once we get to 6 inches of the wet stuff power outages become a concern. Perhaps at even a bit less than that depending on the snow ratio.

      Here is the GFS kuchera SNOW RATIO during the height of the storm

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=ratioku&rh=2024021112&fh=51&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

      Hover the mouse. MOST OF THE AREA is 6:1

      PURE CEMENT!!!!

      If we get 8 inches of snow at that ratio, it WILL present very SERIOUS issues!!!!!

      Some coastal areas have a ratio of 5:1 and I even saw 4:1!!!!
      HOLY CRAP BATMAN!!!!!!!

  52. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2024021112&fh=51&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2024021112&fh=54&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2024021112&fh=57&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    I’m kind of giving the 12z GFS a mulligan on its snowfall amts and its handling of probably the 3-6 most important hours of this event.

    Hr 51, the low is elongated (top link)

    Hr 54, the low is elongated and the GFS really moves it far eastward far. And notice on the 2nd link, that heavy batch of snow is already east of us.

    I think too fast by an hr or 2, but in that intensity that’s potentially another 2-4 inches.

    I feel good about thinking it moved it too fast at hr 54 because at hr 57, while it’s consolidating the low, it moved it east a ton less. If you bring the hr 54 and hr 57 position of the low north to Maine, it doesn’t move much and that doesn’t make sense.

    So, my feeling is, at hr 54, that heavy stuff over the ocean is over eastern New England still and one can add 2-3 inches to the gfs totals.

    1. Yup.

      In my opinion, we’re good to go !

      Certainly, the exact location of banding will differentiate 5-7 from 8-10, maybe a spot 12.

      And don’t blink or one will miss the extremely heavy snow rates.

      1. Indeed. I just hope NO ONE suffers from any
        power outages. We don’t need that.
        Too bad it wasn’t colder, then We’d have a powder 12-18 inch snow storm.

        1. For sure !

          These explosively intensifying systems sometimes overachieve on the backside north and northwest wind.

          It might only be 1-3 hrs on that backside wind but if the trees have a lot of wet snow on them, then all bets are off.

      1. Thanks Dr. S! Based on those maps, other than Ch. 25 and NWS (8”+) Boston should receive either side of 6 inches.

  55. Whatever falls at the very beginning, the end result is a full fledged snowstorm, something especially Boston hasn’t really seen in two years now. Last year was a very big dud (12.4”).

    I guess I tend to take those futurecast models too literally but what else is a viewer to do? At least I do have this WHW blog to refer to. Thanks TK. 🙂

    1. This is one reason I do NOT like when they put those up on the screen. I loved the days when they would make a map depicting the timeline. That’s gone for the most part. 🙁

      I suspect though they all do it because “everybody does it”. That’s what the producers see. Futurecast this. Future radar that. It’s all basically a gimmick to draw viewers, and it works.

    1. We have great locals in this market. Sure a few lesser experienced newer ones … but that’s the market now.

      Not to mention, you won’t gain experience if you don’t actually DO the job. 🙂

  58. We are at 130 comments now. I predicted over 450. So we’ve already gotten past 25% to the mark. We can still hit the number.

    2. Well I can tell you that I won’t be posting anything during
      the super bowl. 🙂 🙂 🙂

      But here’s one more to add to the 130

      1. Love seeing nearly all models on board with similar ideas. Would not be surprised for a few hours to see 2-3 inches per hour. Time to focus on short range stuff.

  59. Thanks TK!

    A bit off topic from the current storm there, but I finally got some decent pictures of the mountains around here yesterday. The viewpoint is from the complex that I live in, on the roof of one of our community buildings. I was also driving around early yesterday evening, and there were some much more spectacular views of these mountains in the “golden hour” lighting, but didn’t have a chance to grab any good pictures.

    https://imgur.com/a/4rhxL5u

    It’s a pretty view this time of year. That snowline will slowly creep up the mountainsides the next few days thanks to drier and somewhat warmer weather. California is in line to get slammed again in about 7-9 days – still tbd how cold those storms will be, so we’ll see what the mountains look like after that 🙂

    Incidentally, that next “California slamming” may bring a brief period of warmer weather/lessened snow chances for SNE towards part of the last week of February. But that would be a brief milder interlude, and it will reload the pattern for additional SNE cold/snow chances well into March, in much the same way that the last big storm out here set the current pattern change in motion.

    1. FAB shots! Thanks for sharing. 🙂

      I also agree with your last paragraph regarding the weather. Might be a little inhale for the pattern to catch its breath.
      Watch, we’ll get 1 or 2 mild days and a rain event and the internet gurus will declare spring has arrived … again. 😉

        1. For you (and anyone else who missed the most recent update) .. she moved to rehab yesterday about this time. Resting a lot initially, strength building begins tomorrow. Maybe a bit today too! I’ll be making a pre-game visit to her later this afternoon. 🙂

    2. OMG!!! THose are WONDERFUL!!!

      THANK YOU WxWatcher. I am saving both of them!!!!!

      I may make one my desktop background replacing the current one I have of the Borderline wencam from Mt. High.

    2. Exactly 2 weeks to the day after JMA & I had this exchange…

      Woods Hill Weather
      January 10, 2015 at 10:56 AM

      JMA if you are still out here: What is your take at this point on the pattern as we head into the end of January / February? Since November, I have felt that if we had a shot at a snowy period (that is a series of legitimate snowfalls in at least parts of southern New England) it would come in February, with borderline weeks final week of January and first week of March. I have been known to be off on timing, even when I get the general transition idea right. GFS ensemble mean hints at positive height anomalies more into western Canada and eastern Alaska around January 25. There is also positive anomaly in the North Atlantic. Maybe I’d like to see that tucked a little closer to Greenland. The ridge is not in the southwestern Atlantic like it was in the December pattern but down closer to Mexico and I would think that may prevent that pattern where the trough buries itself in the Southwest underneath a “tilt-over” ridge. The pattern depicted there looks a little more stable, following a period of milder Pacific flow that follows our current cold. That pattern showing up late January if it should hold as the general pattern for a few weeks would then breed our snow chances for the Winter basically, not necessarily all materializing, but making the pattern a little more active, in terms of snowstorm threats. Do you agree with this?

      JMA
      January 10, 2015 at 3:31 PM

      TK- I saw your question above and my thoughts are in line with yours. I think I would slow down a transition to that pattern. I think the warmer pacific flow shows up around the 18-20th time frame and then heights will rise out west sometime around the 28th-30th, signaling the start of a more active, but not necessarily cold pattern. My concerns here are if the the ridge does not slide east towards Greenland and the ridge down south ends up east of Mexico we end up with a warm southern stream conduit for storms originating in the SW and TV lows to come up over us or just to our west and that means mix or cold rain events. It will be close! I am probably 4-7 days slower on pattern evolution then most, but I will stay with everything being a bit slower to transition as that has been a consistent trend this winter. I am banking on a 15 day pattern of more significant precip events centered about the 1st half of February being just cold enough to deliver most of our snowfall for the winter. So TK I am in general agreement with you, I am just a little concerned our active pattern ends a bit, but a crucial bit,too warm.

      Woods Hill Weather
      January 10, 2015 at 4:20 PM

      Thank you. I’ll certainly not scoff at your delay in the pattern change. It was right-on last time and again my bias as a forecaster has generally been to flip patterns a bit too fast. Unusual considering I’m a very patient person. Still working on that often-made error. .. At least we’re both centered generally around the same time for the majority of the snow.

      JMA
      January 10, 2015 at 4:39 PM

      I don’t think that is your bias. It is a common bias. We all tend to jump on modeled trends which are typically too fast. Same way we in reverse we buy into models tendency to hold on to precip from low pressure systems too long.

      I can see this scenario giving us 4 events in a a 15-16 day period. A Heavy event, 3 light to moderate events and before you know it if you have mostly snow you have picked up 24-30″ plus of snow.

  62. I think TK has had to start a new entry a couple of times during major of events so we didn’t have to scroll down for five minutes to post.

    1. I can do that if people would like it.

      This Tuesday, I’ll be at my work from around the time the storm arrives until around the time the core has gone by. But somewhere in there I can create a new post with a quick update.

    3. My iPad lists links to five latest posts on the left pane so it’s easy when I use it. My phone does not so my right pointer finger gets a bit numb

  65. WxWatcher – my brother and son are heading out to San Diego and LA next Tuesday for my son’s February break. I have shared your photos with them and they are so looking forward to their west coast vacation. Hope the weather cooperates!

    1. I wonder how they computer this because it is pretty close
      to the 10:1 snow????

      Does the euro expect it to be colder? Not especially. So what gives?

  73. From Petey B on FB

    Here we go! Biggest storm in years for some (not saying a lot with these sorry winters lately.)

    Some roads will be impassable during the height of the storm from 8am-2pm Tuesday.

    White-outs and thundersnow are possible in that time.

    Improving by evening Tuesday (after 7p).

    Gusts on coast 40-55+. Cape gusts to 60+. Coastal flooding at high tide Tuesday.

    This is a nor’easter with bombogenesis – expect the worst.

    12-18” is possible in isolated spots. We’ll narrow that down tomorrow.

      1. i dong think so. Although Pete has gone off on his own before and maybe eight out of ten times he is right.

        But is it really hype? It may well be the biggest in years. And if it is heavy and comes down hard, couldn’t roads be tough to travel. Could whiteouts and thunder snow be possible? Expect the worse might be over the top.

        Not being snarky …I’m just curious.

  77. I have been away since yesterday morning in NYC – was also in Poughkeepsie NY where one weather forecaster called for a 90% chance of school closings there Tuesday. Was then in Springfield this morning to visit my son at school. At noon forecast was 4-8 and by 3pm it was 7-13. Feels like things are trending up…Will Providence be able to get there game in against SJU Tues night if the roads will be a problem

  79. Comments usually peak 3-4 days before with all the model links and then day of the event with real time reports. I feel like the 1-2 days before the comments are less as things are locked in and it’s just the anticipation.

  83. Seeing observations that the low down south is weaker than modeled so further south. Something TK said to watch for.

    1. Well we were looking for reasons for this NOT to happen.
      I still think we are OK for now. Let’s see what the 0Z runs bring us. 🙂

  86. Bernie tweet

    I see NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE 500 mb from the 12Z run to 18Z run. In fact, the track of the 500 mb is almost identical. I still see the main injection of cold air still from northern PA to southern New York to southeastern New England. My forecast remains the same.

  88. If we do get cement snow, even if it’s only 5 or 6 inches, please be careful shoveling. I am serious. This applies to me, too. Shoveling that kind of snow can lead to myocardial infarction.

  89. Reba as always was amazing. But starting the pregame coverage with the song my way undid me. It’s a song we always thought of for Mac and more recently for my bother. Amazing how something like the superbowl can play on the heart strings

        1. Hahahahahaha. If KC loses by no more than two (or wins) and the total score of the game stays 47 or under, I win.

          Good luck on your squares!

  94. I worry the thunderstorms down south are doing what a storm a few years ago did. Robbing our system and pushing it south? Thoughts?

  100. A strange game. Glad it’s closer than I thought it would be as it might then turn out to be an interesting 2nd half.

        1. I used to be very bothered with the bad behavior you see in football. I have learned it is all part of the emotion of the game. I would drive Sam crazy when I would complain about teammates behavior and he set me straight. It is all part of the game.

          1. Thanks, Sue.. I am trying to understand that. I don’t like this team on the field either. All sports are passionate for sure. But I’m having trouble equating passion with nasty. I don’t see other teams doing this. I’ll try

            1. Trust me, they all do it, just may not be aired on tv. Not saying it is right in any way, shape, or form. But I realized when I would get aggravated at Sam’s games I was the only one up in arms about it. The coaches and players were not the least bit affected by it.

              1. I get emotion. I have seen Tiger or Brady and many others get angry and mouthy and frustrated. That I really do understand. Kelcie throwing his helmet I get. But putting your hands or using your body against anyone for me is absolutely inexcusable. Thank you for helping me figure out the difference.

      1. Yeah not sure that’s a good take. Not a fan of either team but clearly they not far behind the Pats at this rate.

        1. They do not suck. I agree. They are just nasty What makes me laugh is for 20 years we will hear….its the next dynasty.

        2. Patrick is a great athlete no denying that but he’s one cocky dude & not liked by many . Lot of babies as well & Patrick & Kelsey the two biggest, end of rant .

          1. Of course I am a Pats fan but I have no problem with another team having success. Not sure if you have listened to the Kelce brothers podcast but they are pretty down to earth boys who have a whole ton of respect for their parents.

            1. Their podcast is great. Yeah I don’t see it either. It’s the Taylor effect and just like Brady and the Pats were hated outside of New E so will the Chiefs. People hate winners for some reason.

              1. Ya know. You really need to stop assuming and putting people who don’t agree with you down. You are wrong on every count but I I thought we got there a bit ago

                3. Nah we haven’t and I didn’t say anything there. Didn’t put anyone down, it’s fact people hate winners. The Chiefs are now hated and the Pats were. The Yankees were etc. Everything I said is 100% fact.

              2. My dad was a phenomenal athlete but I found him to be very critical of phenomenal professional athletes. It is definitely human nature.

                1. I agree it is human nature for some. Oddly that was not a lesson I learned from Ted. He was the biggest champion of anyone who showed talent. And I know he was very passionate to the point he regretted much of his younger antics till the day he died. But he recognized them for what the were

  119. Interesting on the GFS as it’s south but snow totals up for Boston. Probably better ratios since it’s a colder solution.

      1. Hahahaha. I am rarely that invested when other teams play. I always figure the best teams make it to the SB. I had to step onto the deck to cool off

        How are you doing setting up for your aunt? It isn’t easy making sure all is safe and comfortable

  123. I may update that in the afternoon or at night. Since I would normally be driving to work Tuesday afternoon during what might be the worst of it, I am going to drive up to Nashua this evening and spend the night in a hotel a couple of miles from the office. So, I will probably write a new blog post either in the afternoon while I am still home, or in the evening after I get to the hotel.

  124. My fear has been correct, everything is way south. We shall see what today holds but the bigger numbers are vanishing quickly.

  125. Bernie tweet

    So what does it all mean…No change for me in Southeast PA with only small accumulations. Southeastern New England not much change. The real forecast problem is NYC and Long Island, those areas have always been on the edge. more later must get ready for work.

  127. here we go. Hadi was onto this firts. Models are most fefinitely shifting South. Rexwe goingvto get Screwed again??? woukd NOT surprise me for sure.

    Really bummed this morning. Really
    Sure some models are holding on,
    but I am NOT liking what I see.

    1. Still we are fine here but more impact for places like NYC that thought they were getting nothing. I bet we see a shift north. Also better ratios so I wouldn’t change the totals.

      1. Well I’d like to see the 12Z runs. Right now, I’d shift our totals down to the 4-8 range. (if not 3-6!!!!) Higher to the South.

        Here’s hoping it comes back North on the 12Z runs.
        I’d hate to get screwed out of yet another one. Would be typical for this Winter. 🙂 🙂 🙂

          1. I think I might. I’ll let you know after 12Z runs. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY at the moment. I don’t know which model(s) to trust.

            I WANT to lean on the 3KM NAM, but DON’T want to get BURNED!!!!!!

            It’ gives me pause that the NAM, RDPS, GFS and UKMET are ALL SOUTH!!! 0Z Euro still looked good. waiting on 6Z run which should be out around 8ish or so. Or by the time I eat and shower….

            We’ll see IF that is still looking good

            btw the 0Z GDPS (CMC) looked great.

    1. the other day we were tossing this one.

      I just don’t know which ones to trust.
      I want to trust

      3KM NAM
      Euro
      HRRR

      All others are suspect, but I fear that would be wrong.

      This is becoming a head schratcher!!!!!

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