Monday February 12 2024 Forecast (7:26AM)

462 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 12-16)

A winter storm is on the way, but not today. Today we’ll have sun that will fade behind increasing clouds later today in advance of the storm system, so commuting to and front work and school today, even this evening, will be no issue. But things change notably by Tuesday morning when a shield of precipitation arrives and traverses the region during the course of the day. The storm system responsible for this upcoming event is currently in the form of a low pressure area moving into the Tennessee Valley and as it reaches the Appalachians, it will spawn a new low in the Delmarva region, which will then track east northeastward passing just southeast of New England by later Tuesday. Temperatures will be marginal enough that the precipitation can start as rain from about the Providence RI to Plymouth MA area eastward through Cape Cod, but most of these areas will go over to snow fairly quickly during the morning – though it will take longer on Outer Cod and Nantucket to do so. Elsewhere, it’s just a straight snow event. But it doesn’t last long, and it’s already pulling eastward and out of the region by late afternoon and gone by evening. The snowfall amounts that will appear below in the detailed forecast will reflect a tiny tick southward in the heaviest snow amounts, but there are no big changes other than to trim a little off the higher amounts in southern NH and north central MA. Behind Tuesday’s event, we can expect cold February weather heading through the remainder of the week. A cold front passing by Wednesday morning or midday may bring a few snow showers with it, and a small, fast-moving low pressure area will bring a quick shot of accumulating snow Thursday night and early Friday.

TODAY: Increasing high clouds. Highs 40-47. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Thickening overcast. Lows 30-37. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Overcast. Snow, may begin as rain Providence-Plymouth line to Cape Cod and Islands before changing to snow. Snow starts to taper off and end from west to east later in the day to early evening. Expected snow accumulations 1-3 inches Nantucket and Martha’s Vineyard, 3-6 Cape Cod and immediate South Coast of MA/RI/CT, as well as interior southern NH to far north central MA, 6-10 inches elsewhere, with pocket amounts of 10-12 inches favoring the Worcester MA area to northern RI. Temperatures steady 30-37 through midday, falling into the 20s by evening. Wind NE 10-20 MPH inland and 15-30 MPH coast, higher gusts likely especially MA South Shore through Cape Cod and Islands, over 40 MPH at times in those areas.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 15-22. Wind NW 10-20 MPH. Wind chill below 10.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Chance of snow showers in the morning. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH. Wind chill near to below 20 at times.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 13-20. Wind NW 5-15 MPH. Wind chill below 10.

THURSDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Highs 31-38. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with snow or snow showers – minor accumulation expected. Lows 25-32. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Any early snow showers ending with a sun/cloud mix. Highs 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 17-21)

Low pressure brings a chance of snow to the region early on February 17. Another disturbance brings a chance of snow showers on February 18. Generally dry weather thereafter. Temperatures below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 21-25)

Watching for potential low pressure impacts around February 22 and 25. Pattern may keep these more to the south and our area on the dry side.

462 thoughts on “Monday February 12 2024 Forecast (7:26AM)”

  2. Only got to 330 comments yesterday and that was with the aid of a super bowl in the discussion. 🙂

  3. Good morning and thank you TK

    So you have no concern this yet may track farther South? I certainky do Hope not, but I am worried. Hope 12z runs eliminate that

    FWIW ocean temp off of Boston is finally inder 40, by a bit at 39.9.

    Cold enough, I do believe.

    1. I did shift things slightly south on my discussion / accumulations. But even my “scenario 2” from yesterday is still a similar snow forecast for Boston.

      I don’t think too much more shifting can take place from here.

      1. hope you are correct.

        what do yyou think about the nws 12-18 inches on their snow map. kind of over done, no?

        1. This highlights the problem with their fixed ranges. If anybody gets 12 from this, it’ll be very limited areas. They’d have been much better off sticking with 8-12 as the top range and if they felt anyone would go over a foot, to literally write on the map “isolated higher amounts”.

          I very much disagree with their 12-18 area and especially how large it is.

          If we had another 6 hours of snowfall with this event, OK. But we won’t.

  5. Thanks TK !

    I’d like to see a run on this event without all the convection ongoing in the deep south.

    that probably won’t be the 12z suite stuff, but rather the 00z suite tonight.

  11. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=500wh&rh=2024021112&fh=48&r=nwatl&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=500wh&rh=2024021200&fh=36&r=nwatl&dpdt=&mc=

    Upper left corner of these images.

    If one goes back and forth btwn the 2, I think its the northern stream. Because, I think the location of the southern stream disturbance, the one in eastern OK hasn’t really changed in the last 24 hrs.

    In this 30-40 mile shift south, the cutoff yesterday was somewhere btwn Manchester and Concord, now, its near or just north of Boston ….. I think there’s a similar southward shift of about the same distance in the northern stream.

  16. Watching the 12Z HRRR and comparing it to the nice 6 run.
    It “appears” to me that it is coming in 50-75 miles more
    SOUTH. I could be wrong. Continuing to watch.

        1. Sure, but even at 12z on this, you are well in the heavy stuff with a few dozen miles to spare.

          I can see your concern.

          I am glad I am an extra 20 miles south.

          Sharp, sharp north side cutoff. From 6+ to nothing real quick.

          And its not too far to your north, but overall, I think your going to still get in the good stuff, but it is nerve wrackingly close !!

  20. Compare 12z to 00z HRRR and while the heaviest area drops maybe an inch, there was no change in location of the snowband. The northern edge didn’t move at all, north or south.

    I am hesitant to take anything that is 6z into account.

    1. hmmm
      I haven’t been very good at this, but my sense is the 12Z NAM
      is coming more North again. 🙂 we shall see really soon.

  26. For the record, even in the snowiest-case scenario, this one isn’t going to be a blockbuster. Spread the word. 🙂

    1. 🙂 🙂 🙂

      Ahhh, but given the last 2 Winters, perhaps we “could” call this a block buster. Perhaps NOT in the traditional sense, but for this Winter, yes sir!! 🙂 🙂 🙂

      Al least it will be something, unless it slips away from us!!!

      1. Say we get 8 inches , to me that’s a lot of snow & especially not getting that for quite some time . Snow folks have had it rough , so take whatever comes & enjoy it .

        1. Yup, given that we’ve had virtually NOTHING for 2 years,
          an 8 inch snow storm will feel like a MONSTER, even though we really know it is NOT!!!

  29. I have been hearing/reading all along that south of the pike might see highest amounts. I mentioned that to Pete yesterday. While I’d like to see north of here get in on the fun, they’ve had some good amounts already. Not so much here. So JPD and Sue land to this area sounds very nice.

    1. Agree

      Frankly, after the 0z and 6Z NAM runs, I was pleasantly surprised
      at the 12Z run!!!!

      I’ll take it!!!

  37. I would say that Grey, ME NWS probably needs to reconsider its WSW’s north of the Mass Border.

    Maybe a WWA in southern NH, southernmost ME and VT.

    If things hold as they have been.

  42. Walked the shore and all was crystal clear. A little bit of high cloud haze now with a temp of 41. Might reach 45-46 today which are probably the highest temperatures we’ll see for a while to come.

    Would like to go to the shore around 1-2 PM Tuesday and Wednesday. Tides are high!

      1. Dear heavens. Really really bad timing. I’m thinking this is what Pete was seeing??

        I don’t understand the melting aspect. I’m off to do some reading to see what it all means

    1. And it should be.

      I couldn’t understand the 00z yesterday.

      Well developed 850 mb low with a brief but very strong NE 850 mb jet. Should be a 3-4 hr firehose of moisture off the Atlantic.

  45. 0.80 inches melted in 3 hrs at Providence.

    0.72-0.75 inches melted on the south shore in 3 hrs.

    Tapers to 0.55 inches melted in 3 hrs at Boston, but that will still be very impressive, falling as snow.

    Max bullseyes on the south coast of 0.90-0.95 inches melted in 3 hrs.

    I would not advise being on the road Mass Pike points southward btwn 9am and 1pm tomorrow.

    People may really struggle to move in those snowfall rates.

      1. Me too, the worst being the April fools blizzard.

        The corporate world released us too late. Drove him in a ton of snow already on the roads and tremendous snow rates.

    3. Just so I understand, do these figures make the south shore the bullseye for snow? Also, does .55 inches melted in Boston effectively cap snowfall at around 3 inches given the expected wet snow? Thanks.

    1. INDEED!!! FOrtunately, the water in just barely under 40 now.

      Much better than 46-48 as in earlier storms. 🙂

  49. Now, I will hope for maybe 10-20 miles more to the north just to give Boston a little more wiggle room. I think you have 10-20 miles to play with on this track, but it would be better if we could get that heavy stuff to the Merrimack Valley/Mass-NH border.

    As of now, I think the heavy stuff might get to the northern part of 128.

    1. Not quite model mayhem, but still.

      I’m happy with anything at this point. Yes, a 4 to 6 inch storm in Boston would be fine, especially because it’ll stick around for a bit. Might even add a bit to it later this week.

    2. That kind of has a built in Kuchera Type algrithm.
      Personally I wouldn’t touch that with a 10 foot pole.

      I’d go with the Kuchera ratios from Pivotal weather.

      Where is see ratios in Eastern sections of 5;1 to 6:1

      At 5:1 1 inch melted water would be 5 inches of heavy wet cement type snow.

      That is what Tom is concerned about. 🙂

  56. Oh, the melted is what the models expected if the snow was well, fell as rain, I suppose.

    So, if its snows at 10F and the column is also very cold, it might snow 10 inches, but when its melted or if it fell as rain, it might be .3 melted.

    Here, its about a 10-1 ratio because the models are showing 10 inches of snow equivalent to it raining or melting to 1 inch of rain.

    1. Yep, the teacher in you comes out again. 🙂

      I don’t think Boston gets 1 inch of melted!
      Would be nice, but color me skeptical. I can’t stand
      this model divergence!!!! CANNOT STAND IT!!!!!!

    1. ARGH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!@)#(*)!(@*#)(!*)(@#*!)(@*#)(!*@)#(*!()@#*)(!*@#)(!*)(#*!)(@#*)(!*@#()*!)(@#*)(!@*#()!*(##

      GIMMIE A BREAK!!!!

  61. Apply preponderance of the evidence.

    Buy that litmus test, its Mass Pike, southward as the most likely scenario for the heavy stuff.

  62. TK you did say yesterday that the track a little more south was still on the table. And I saw you adjusted a little for that today, knowing it’s a better possibility than you felt 24 hours ago.

    Your discussions are clear and easy to read and you always try to answer questions in the comments. I appreciate all of that! This is why I’ve stuck with this blog since the WBZ days. DOH!!!!

    Keep up the great work my friend !!!!

  63. Just walked the dog to Buzzards Bay in Padanaram Village – what a beautiful day. This whole set up feels like a classic northeast mid February coastal snowstorm – bright blue skies and mild temps today followed by blinding snow and high wind 24 hrs later – I bet the high end of the ranges unless there is significant melting early on.

  64. I was just comparing the 16Z HRRR with the 12Z HRRR for any subtle differences through 18 hours.

    What I see is a slightly more West to East cutoff of the precip and that cutoff is farther South than it was in the 12Z run from
    4 hours ago.

    my conclusion for what it is worth, this thing is going SOUTH!

    18Z runs are not far away, so we shall see.

  65. Looking at the RAP.

    There is a very clear trend SOUTH going on there folks.

    I am NOT liking this one bit!!!!!!

  68. https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/standard/KLSX_loop.gif

    I think I can already disprove the UkMet, which wont be initialized right at 6z on its 12z run.

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmet&p=qpf_006h-imp&rh=2024021212&fh=6

    Clearly, by 18z on the UkMet, the expected precip is a decent way southwest of St Louis. You can use that curve the Mississippi River makes east of St Louis.

    But look at the radar. An hour and a half before 18z, the precip is already further north and east, about where the GFS expects it to be at 6z on its 12z run (below)

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=qpf_006h-imp&rh=2024021212&fh=6

    See how the GFS has that finger of light precip up to the bottom of the curve the MS makes ?? And on radar, the precip is about there, further north than where the UkMet thinks it should be.

  69. NWS point forecast for Boston for snowfall..

    Low end: 7″
    Forecast amount: 12″
    High end: 19″

    ..as of 10 a.m.

    1. I for one cannot agree with that. Will they be as slow as the NHC to make adjustments?

      I’ll eat my computer mouse if 12 inches for Boston verifies.

      The highest end Kuchera I have seen is 10 or 11 inches with a low end of 2 inches. SPlit the difference and you get about 6 maybe 7.

      I don’t get their reasoning.

      For comparison, what would you forecast, low and high end be for Boston.

      Can I take a stabd?

      Low 4
      forecast 7
      High 10

  70. I can’t tell if someone has already posted this already, but the Boston Public Schools are closed tomorrow.

  71. Thanks TK. I am, more or less, exactly in agreement with your forecast.

    The “south shift” is much ado about nothing IMO. If you’re up towards the North Shore or approaching the MA/NH border, then yes, there will likely be a sharp cutoff somewhere.

    Otherwise, a lot of people panicking for no reason. My early over/under for Boston was 9”. I still like that. If anything, I may lean slightly towards the under just due to ratios and the daytime timing. But it should be a broad 6-10” over most of SNE.

    My jackpot zone would be about the same as what TK has, back towards my old home in Wrentham. Someone towards the MA/RI/CT border should get a 12” amount.

    2. I’m glad you are so confident.

      Btw, one of your photos is my desktop background.
      It is STUNNING on my 20 inch monitor!!!!!

    2. I was busy with lunch and it is trash day,

      Yeah I just saw it, But we’re getting bent out of shape for nothing at all! 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

  74. I just got an update from my nephew on my now 2 month old grand niece.

    The second lumbar puncture showed no bacteria. Shayla is back to herself. They need to check this week to see if her hearing was affected. I pray it was not. I feel as if an enormous weight has been lifted so cannot begin to imagine why my nephew and wife are feeling.

    Thank you everyone for your thoughts and prayers.

    1. I saw that. Most public schools seem to be cities. I wonder if plow driver shortage plays into that. Or could just be the forecast. I didn’t look to see which were in northern or southern ma

  77. Thanks TK.

    I am liking where I am in CT for this storm. It’s been quite the shift southward on the models overnight and into this morning.

    John Homenuk
    @jhomenuk
    5h

    The past 24 hours have featured one of the most dramatic short-term model adjustments that I can remember with a Northeast US winter storm in over a decade. The location of heavier banding within this system has trended southward by easily 200 miles.

    https://x.com/jhomenuk/status/1757033097940328738?s=20

  79. Wow at the 12z HREF!

    This model run will get Dave’s seal of endorsement…

    eweather
    @Eweather13
    59m

    The 12z HREF mean snowfall is robust. A touch south from 00z. Pretty much a perfect track for SNE snow.

    Back 1/3 off these numbers especially south and east of I84 due to heavy wet low ratio snow. So 12” shown is likely more like 8” if we assume a 7.5:1 ratio. Right along the coast the snow ratio may be as low as 5:1, so 1/2 of what’s shown. So 12” along the shore may be more like 6”.

    Bottom line…a solid 6-12” across the area with some jackpot amounts over 1 foot possible inland where banding sets up. 4-8” a good bet right along the shoreline. This is very close to the revised map I issued this morning.

    https://x.com/Eweather13/status/1757099991334563970?s=20

    1. Yeah I don’t think anyone should panic bc the Ukie and Euro are basically no storm.

      Follow the meteorology not the modelology this point especially with global vs short range.

      1. It’s definitely too weak/too far south. Storm lead time of less than 24 hours is not in the Euro’s sweet spot.

    1. Wow! WHAT A PIECE OF SHIT!!!!!!!

      About to look at the 18Z HRRR. should be out far enough now.
      Let’s see where that little bugger takes us?

        1. That’s not actually a new wrinkle. That is a reflection of what I talked about yesterday and again today about the marginal temperatures at the onset.

          1. Yes but that was expected farther South and East.

            from your post: “TUESDAY: Overcast. Snow, may begin as rain Providence-Plymouth line to Cape Cod and Islands before changing to snow”

  85. How lovely!!!!!!

    18Z HRRR total Kuchera snow

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2024021218&fh=28&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Tell me this is NOT a trend. Here is the 12Z snow

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2024021212&fh=34&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=snku_acc-imp&m=hrrr

    and the 6Z snow

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2024021206&fh=40&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=snku_acc-imp&m=hrrr

    and the 0Z snow

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2024021200&fh=46&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=snku_acc-imp&m=hrrr

    DOWN DOWN DOWN DOWN

    AND there goes our snow

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gANlajb7aDc

  88. What’s odd is the track remains about the same, but precip field is totally different. Not sure what to think at this point.

    1. I’m totally and completely fed up.

      Is it some cruel joke today? Is today April 1st by some chance.
      Is so Pathetic it is LAUGHABLE!!!

  90. TK, did the convection affect the southern stream disturbance location.

    Did the models get the northern stream wrong 24 hrs ago and are adjusting to it today?

    Is it a little bit of both ?

    And I find it weird that the more southerly solutions 36-48 hrs ago DID adjust northward for a run, maybe 2. Its not like they held consistent the whole time.

      1. TK is giving me thought to rethink my thinking. (below)

        Yes, the Euro added to some of the other stuff has dropped my confidence in a hit on the south shore. Before that, I was thinking Boston was near the edge, but we were ok down here.

        I guess I’ll reassess after 18z and keep in mind the HREF example TK cited below.

    2. Well first of all I don’t think there are any drastic changes ongoing here. What we’re seeing is adjustments one way or another based on several things that look different in the simulation.

      Like any of these the error is greater most likely when you are further out but there are also other factors that can impact this.

      It has to be taken on a case-by-case basis but using knowledge from previous cases.

      For example, one of the last times within the last few years that we had a situation like this and the guidance suddenly backed off and the HREF did what it is doing now, it ended up being correct. Is it nailing this? Not sure. But I wouldn’t count it out or at least count out a compromise.

      Based on everything I have seen so far I would make virtually no changes to what I wrote this morning. I will continue to reevaluate as the information comes in. That is the process. That is the method.. 🙂

      1. Wow! You are pretty confident. Seriously I hope you are correct. That would be awesome!!!!

        In the meantime, thank you for allowing me to vent!!! It is
        rather therapeutic. 🙂

      2. I will try to get better at that method and way of thinking.

        I did not know or recall the HREF event you described above, so I certainly did not take that into account. 🙂

      3. Thank you very much , TK. I’ve been holding onto those thoughts all day. I know southern shift has been part of the discussion for a couple of days and was hoping that is what this is.

        As Sam says…..BRING IT

  92. It’s just not our year(s) so far. And my gut tells me it won’t be our year, at least not for what I would term real and sustained cold and significant snow. Sure, a few periods of relative cold but none of them long or sustained, and a few comparatively minor snow events. Here, I’m talking about the coast and vicinity. It’s been a different story inland in some places where a fairly decent amount of snow has fallen. And I believe this disparity between coast and inland will only get magnified as we head towards March.

    I think it will snow, BUT in my mind there are multiple factors against a major snowstorm at or near the coast: 1. Antecedent warmth. It’s very mild outside and has been for several days; cold air is coming but it’s going to take a while to get here; the surface is exceptionally warm for a SNE winter – soft soil all winter and even the asphalt will take a while to have snow accumulate on it, remember the last storm in January when it took several hours of moderate to heavy snow to finally start accumulating; 2. Water temp. Still too high for my liking.

    1. As I said before, I’d be happy if we get 4 to 6 inches. I think it will be more like 4 sloppy inches, rather similar to the January storm in which we got 3 sloppy inches. Still not exactly a plowable event, except for side streets and sidewalks. It’s been 2 years since Beacon Street in Boston has been plowed. There’s been some salting for sure, but no plowing.

  94. 18Z 3KM NAM snow

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2024021218&fh=29&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    qpf

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=qpf_acc-imp&rh=2024021218&fh=29&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    12Z

    snow

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2024021212&fh=35&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    qpf

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2024021212&fh=35&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=qpf_acc-imp&m=nam4km

    I’m sorry but no matter how you slice this represents a HUGE shift SOUTH!!

  96. This tweet from Ryan Hanrahan says it all.

    A very significant southerly jog in our midday computer guidance introduces a bit more uncertainty to the forecast and possibly lower totals for some.

  98. But even with that, the 3Km NAM delivers around .55 melted in Boston and close to 1 inch melted in Marshfield and Sharon.

    Its now only 12 hrs to precip start time

  99. TK’s post above made me calm down a little.

    After all, was it realistic to buy into 1+ QPF and 10-14 inches on some of the big hitters ??

    Maybe .5 at the Mass Pike including Boston to .8 or .9 at the south coast was more realistic 48 hrs ago and all today has done is come in line with that.

  101. Even I am on the northern fringe with this system now and will be lucky to pull 4 or 5″!

    Congrats to NYC….it’s been a long time coming for them.

    What a disaster.

  103. Moving on to the next system.(s)….

    GFS, ICON and CMC all depicting potent clippers in rapid succession Friday and next weekend, the weekend system with some signals of possible coastal redevelopment.

    Will be interesting (after tomorrow’s coating) to watch what transpires with those 🙂

      1. The way this system is trending we would be happy with this.
        The last big bust I remember for forecast guidance was back in late January 2015. Forecast guidance was calling a day prior to that storm of 12-24 inches for my area. The low ended up further east and only got 7 inches. Eastern areas got crushed.

        1. Vividly remember that one. That started off the 2015 snow blitz for Eastern MA. I think I pulled 15″ off for that one but still paled in comparison to what the Boston area received.

  108. If it keeps going this way, I’m making outdoor BBQ plans tomorrow.

    I can’t believe the pendulum won’t swing back north some within the next 12 hours.

  111. I usually like snow, but I’m fine with the forecast changes in my area.

    …WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY… …WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED…

    We’ve been enjoying hiking so much recently, that I’m happy to see these changes.

  115. Eric Fisher Updated Snowmap. He also kept an 8-12″ area though smaller than Ryan’s….

    Eric Fisher
    @ericfisher
    5m

    Latest update with the southern trend continuing. SE Mass has the best chance at higher totals/worst travel conditions. Light amounts northern half of the state. Starts 6-8am from SW to NE tomorrow, gone by 4-5p. #wbz

    https://x.com/ericfisher/status/1757149368182829161?s=20

  116. I was wrong on the ratios. Further south doesn’t mean colder, actually looking at it it’s warmer since we don’t have a real cold airmass in place.

    1. There’s not going to be a mixing issue at the coast. It’s still mainly a snow event. The lower totals are not because of that.

      The only mixing, as I said previously, would be due to the marginal temps at the very beginning of the precipitation.

      1. May very well be for a lot of people….at least Mass Pike north. You should still be good for 4-8″ in your area.

      2. We’ll get a hint with the very 1st model available, the 0Z HRRR which should be available around 8:15 to 830

    1. I hate this for our meteorologists. Every one of them is dedicated …thaf of course includes our Mets here….and has to decipher this mess. And then gets flack no matter the outcome.

  124. I’ve got to say, I’m not surprised.

    I follow the models this close all year long and I know this happened last summer.

    Sudden changes up to the last minute and was it Leominster or some rte 2 area that got 11 inches of rain in thunderstorms and some short range models within hrs showed nothing in that location.

    1. Much harder to predict exact areas of convection though in summertime situations.

      For a synoptic wintertime event, this is pathetic.

      THAT SAID, and I will say this before TK chimes in and says it…..the storm hasn’t even happened yet. We can’t call it a bust 18 hours before it even starts. Still potential this slides back north 20-30 miles at 0z which would make a big difference for a lot of people.

    1. Yeah I posted that above. Agree the 8-12″ area is too much and too expansive. He needs to shift the northern extent of the 4-8″ area south as well, IMO.

      1. Here in CT this is starting to look like 3-6 4-8 inch storm. I would not be surprised if the winter storm warnings in northern CT are downgraded to winter weather advisories.

      2. Exactly I just posted that but hit some key by accident that changed my handle so it is in moderation. But you got it anyway! Thanks

  131. Hahahahahahahahaha !!!!

    The current NWS snow map is by far the MOST snow projected for marshfield because in the more northerly solutions, they had us 2-4, 3-6 along the immediate coast.

    In some bizarre way through it all today, this could end up true.

  132. So yesterday I highlighted 2 scenarios. I leaned toward #1. Today (now), #2 is the most likely outcome. This will result in a lowering of the snowfall totals, but not an elimination of the event.

    You’d think from the reaction around social media that the thing is tracking over Bermuda. No point in overreacting. It’s literally about a 50 mile shift in projected storm track over a 24 hour period. That’s not really unusual. 😉

    I don’t think a lot of people out there in social media land understand this process of predicting the future. I really don’t.

    Anyway, my initial idea is to adjust everything down 2 inches in combination with shifting the heaviest to the south by 25 to 50 miles. But I am not going to re-write today’s blog. I’m just saying it here and I’ll update tomorrow AM. The blog post may be very early (like in the overnight hours). In the meantime, refer to SAK’s update. It’s pretty similar to my current idea.

    This is a lower snow event N&W, and a pretty decent snowfall along and south of I-90. Scenario #2. Not really a big surprise here folks. And I’ve seen some posts out there about this being the most drastic model shift in over 10 years. It’s not. Those are overreactions. 🙂 I’m going to contact my archive guru to find some examples of more drastic ones if he has them available. I can’t remember then by specific event.

  133. Just watched Pete on my phone. He adjusted to 3-5 North of Boston and 5-8 Boston and 8-12 well South of Boston

  136. TK – I saw your post from yesterday. I remember that discussion so well. There was more between us. We both saw what was coming. We disagreed on timing ( you were closer to right) but we both new an anomaly was coming. As it turned out January 25 -February 15 was a 20 day 80″ onslaught. Then after that , nothing over 3″ and it became trace type amounts after March 2.

    I had to come over here to see the ECMWF reaction. So many meteorologists have grown up as EC disciples and today throws them for a loop. This pattern always had a southward opportunity and I think TK was onboard with southerly warnings 10 days ago. Likely not as south as the most extreme solution’s, but this storm will start as rain (ever so briefly) at the Boston and south coast, drain cold, change to snow, but be too far south to be “epic.” Jackpot for snow – NW RI, NECT, SCTMA at elevation. More QPF SE MA, but too warm with too low of ratios. They will break the break your back contest.

    2. Thanks for chiming in!

      I was on board with models forecasting not enough blocking or storm tracks too far north for February back in November. It’s funny that it’s actually happening to some degree … HTE strikes again!

  137. WHW field trip to the Cape Codder in Hyannis !

    They have a wave pool too.

    I saw on the news the other day they are going to re brand it as a margaritaville location.

    Marshfield already cancelled. If my daughter didn’t have dance til late tonight, I’d be debating it. Oh well 🙂

  138. One other note,10: 1 is useless tomorrow inside of 495. Skip Kuchera too. Check out positive change and/ or snowfall depth.

      1. 🙂
        yes I get that. What I was wondering, is there enough going such that the system gets pulled more Northward. I know not likely, but is it possible?

  142. I’m hearing the same models showing snow here are also showing rain and thunder occurring SE Ohio this evening. So maybe if they are correct there, we get a storm here?

    1. I read the same thing from our friend Scott over on the AmericanWx forum…..saying to watch what happens over eastern Ohio tonight. We’ll see. I’ll be watching 🙂

      1. Hmmmm. Mine was not from Scott. It was from another I think you follow though. Rob? Kind of fun and I’ll be watching too.

  143. Here is a very telling animation showing the last 7 runs of the ECMWF model, starting with 0z Sunday and ending with 12z today.

    I know TK mentioned above this is not unusual but in my 15 years of model watching, I am struggling to remember a time models have shifted this dramatically in such a short time period so close to the onset of the event.

    Early yesterday AM, the Euro had 8″ snows to Killington VT and today the 8″ snow contour is over Nantucket.

    Michael Barletta
    @MikeBWeather
    1h

    Just speechless I can’t get over it lol.

    https://x.com/MikeBWeather/status/1757140648547750366?s=20

  145. NWS in their forecast discussion mentions the Thurs night/Friday AM clipper system that I posted about earlier.

    Looks quick moving but robust….they discuss NBM showing as much as 1-4″ from this Pike north and a coating to 3″ south.

    Of course talking about accumulations for that system when we cant even get tomorrow right is almost laughable 🙂

    1. Looking pretty good (unfortunately) based on current guidance. I guess I’ll be happy just to salvage 3-6″ at this point.

    1. Good for them. Belmont just closed. Uxbridge and webster closed out this way. Not Sutton or northbridge or Oxford so still waiting

  148. Wise words…

    Pete Bouchard
    @PeteNBCBoston
    51m

    Trade secret: trickiest part of ramping down a snowfall forecast is whether the forecast has stabilized OR whether the trend continues right up until the storm’s arrival.

    1. Looking at the 21z HRRR, it is a touch farther NW with the snow shield than 18z. Perhaps, mercifully, the south trend has ended and we can correct some….

  150. From Ryan Hanrahan on the American Wx forum…

    “Even looking at the 19z/20z HRRR there’s a great banding/snow growth signal through most of CT up through Boston”

  152. From a met (actually Will, not Scott) on the American Weather forum. Vicki this is what I was posting about earlier….

    Posted 3 hours ago

    If you want to follow something definitive upstream that will tell us whether the latest southern guidance is more correct, look at the radar along the Ohio River in SE Ohio tonight between 8pm-midnight….almost all of the guidance that crushes SNE gets good precip just over the Ohio river into the border counties of SE Ohio….the crappy runs keep it in West Virginia and basically completely whiff those Ohio counties. It ends up making a big difference downstream later on for us as the difference gets magnified….

    https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2024_02/image.png.d67a62f64ae06e47b7b1a9ae03f149ae.png

    1. This is what I saw in the comments to a post by route 20 western and central mass weather. Rob who hosts that posted the comment and my guess is saw it mentioned in America we

      This was what he said

      https://imgur.com/a/q62ITlS

      I’ll be watching Ohio

          1. Yes I remember. Just dont know if this guy is also on the AmericanWx forum and if so, what his handle is. Or if he is just reading the same thing I am.

            2. Yes, I think the correlation is…the more precip we see fill in SE Ohio, the further north the heavier snow gets in SNE.

  154. To continue what Mark said,

    Decent shift North on the snow from 18Z to 23Z
    We shall see.

    And I would like to echo what Pete said.
    He was concerned that the storm wasn’t here yet and that things could get tricky.

  155. Just catching up with comments – now north of 350. I am not surprised by this shift – TK hinted at this yesterday and last night I felt a few models were signaling a bit. We are over due on the south coast for a snow event so it’s nice to see this area in the bullseye

  156. From Ryan Hanrahan…

    9 minutes ago, CT Rain said:
    FWIW – the 18z GFS, 18z NAM (12km and 3km) still show excellent snow growth for BDL/HFD. Even on the QPF gradient the efficient dendritic growth could help.

  160. Mob mentality with the number of schools cancelling tonight. Even if we wanted to wait for tomorrow—with so many schools/day cares closed and no other childcare options for our teachers we wouldn’t have the staff to provide a meaningful day of learning! Hope we get a pleasant surprise to make it worth it.

  161. I just watched BZ, WHDH, NBC10 Mark again it looks as if we are getting the bad (insert any word you like) end of the stick.

  163. The Hurricane Hunters have deployed on a mission to release 10-15 dropsondes into our storm to get better data for the upcoming 0z models.

    This is a big deal. Compared to the data available for the 18z runs this will be extremely high quality data. Given the difference in data assimilation methods between the 18z and 0z runs in addition to having higher quality data, we may yet see another surprise on models tonight.

      1. Hahaha. Had same thought. Or they are seeding it so it will strengthen because they heard JPD say something about jumping and roof.

  169. I’m somewhat amused by this, and it’s a good example (regardless of the details of the outcome) of the scrutiny snow gets over anything else.

    Guidance has a handful of major fails per year, on average. Many of them are during events where we look for rain, or showers, or thunderstorms. And most of the time people will just make note of things like “hey it didn’t rain as much as it looked like it might” or “wow, those thunderstorms were a lot later and weaker than the guidance had” and forget about it. But snow .. OH no. That has to be scrutinized to the maximum. Anyone notice that? What is it, particularly, about ice crystals that makes this so different from any other model-to-weather issue? I’m really kind of interested in the psychology of it. 🙂

    2. I had not thought about it but you are right. I’ll take a stab…Rain is generally short lived and rarely causes major disruption. Same with thunderstorms, etc. Snow on the other hand can cause major disruption from getting to and from work or school or grocery store or appointments.

      Larger events such as hurricanes seem to get pretty much the same attention as snow.

    3. I think it’s the lack of snow the last 2 years.

      I think if this happens in, for example, Feb 2015, it gets a lot less of a reaction.

  170. The lack of precip intensity in showing up in short range guidance with a little more areal coverage of rain at the start and taking an hr or 2 to changeover now and temps a little higher in eastern Mass at the start.

  171. TK I do agree with that statement regarding the scrutiny snow events get over rain. And guaranteed if this was July, we wouldnt be hearing much about this.

    That said…..you have to admit that this is one of the most epic short term model busts in recent history…..perhaps since the late January 2015 blizzard where they were calling in the National Guard in for two feet of snow in NYC and they ended up on the fringe of the storm getting very little.

    The HRRR has gone from 15-18″ of snow in Hartford to 0.9″ in 24 hours.

    The Euro had 8″ to Killington VT yesterday AM and now has that contour 215 miles south over Nantucket.

    Unbelievable.

    1. Yes, I was about to note something similar with QPF.

      Like a majority of guidance for a given area that was .8-1.1 inches melted down to .1-.3, and it happened within 24 hrs of the event.

      If the change happened 3+ days out, ok, but within 24 hrs of the event happening, that’s bad.

  173. Well, Congrats Atlantic City. You’ve waited a long time for this!

    And congrats to the UKMET as well who sniffed this disaster out first and everyone discounted it. Blind luck or do we have a new King getting sworn in??

  174. And needless to say….. the precip has hit a wall at Parkersburg WV and SE Ohio is bone dry.

    It’s quite possible the Thurs night/Fri AM clipper ends up delivering more snow in many areas than tomorrow’s system will.

  175. With all this said, the 2 NAMs still deliver .5+ melted down here in marshfield and some moderate snow, so, I still have some curiosity to see what happens.

    1. and maybe some localized convergence btwn a NE wind and a more N wind inland can enhance a snow band on that northwest shield of the storm on either the south shore or even Boston.

      1. Still showing 4-6″ for your area. Your area and especially points SE should be the jackpot for this storm in SNE.

  177. At this point, NWS should downgrade to Advisories Pike southward with the exception of the Cape/Islands where the WSW’s can remain.

    Remove all headlines north of the Pike, except for maybe a Flizzard Advisory.

  178. The Lunenburg schools have not closed, despite the peer pressure from nearby Fitchburg, Groton, Ayer-Shirley, and Littleton.

    1. Smart move.

      They closed the schools in Coventry but I’m OK with that given the timing of the storm, even we only get 2-4″.

  180. Just saw on WBZ……

    Pieces of furniture just spotted flying out of the second floor window of a home in JP.

    3. I am sorry to say that the report was false.
      I have been laughing so hard all evening.

      Am I disappointed? Sure, but truly this is laughable. 🙂 🙂 🙂

      Totally unreal situation.

  181. Lesson learned, don’t focus on the track! We will be close to a benchmark track and yet this. focus on what’s happening at 500 mb and the atmosphere!

  182. Thr mets are taking a beating. I was upset about lack of snow but that pales in comparison to what I feel reading the garbage these social media idiots are dishing out. These guys pour their heart and soul into their job.

    1. Wait till tomorrow. It is going to be brutal. I was in the card store earlier tonight and the cashiers were talking about the 12-14″ we were getting tomorrow. I was going to say something but didnt even bother.

    2. Yeah, the worst thing modern technology has done is give everyone the ability to publicize their stupidity/arrogance/immaturity.

      I read one woman’s feedback to Pete, completely offensive. But prior to that, I read 3 or 4 that were very complimentary.

      2. I want to make this a header on all social media sites.

        the worst thing modern technology has done is give everyone the ability to publicize their stupidity/arrogance/immaturity

  186. Weatherbug is calling for light snow and flurries in the Boston area. Doesn’t look like they have us getting into any intense snowfall.

    1. That is our weekend clipper follow up to the Friday AM clipper and that one is looking even more robust than the first. 00z ICON has it as well.

      2. Agreed.

        While I’m not surprised with what happened today, I am kind of shell shocked.

        I’ll probably be over this in a few days, but at the moment, I might model watch out to 24 hrs for a few days starting tomorrow 🙂 🙂 🙂 and see how long that lasts.

      3. GFS delivers several hours of snow on the second one but doesnt fully get its act together. It’s close to something bigger though. For that matter so is the ICON.

        More interesting times ahead later this week….

  188. An example of a blithering idiot. This was to Eric

    hey wiseass we dont need your tweets we see you on tv hyping the storm with your maps. Just take the L…if you worked for me you would have been fired already. Cash your check and try to do better and take accountability.

    1. Most of “these” folks …… They have terrible grammar, write incomplete or run on sentences. They clearly are frustrated or hate their lives. They make mistakes in their own lives or at work and get roasted for them and they expect that to happen to others. A waste of universal matter.

    2. And the best one yet. One moron claims the Mets are over forecasting to promote global warming

      Haven’t I always said ignore the idiots. Someone needs to stop me

        1. They are. Sadly I suspect our Mets are so busy kicking themselves when they truly don’t need to so cannot appreciate funny

  191. Part of the problem is people who don’t understand what they are looking at see a snowstorm in the models, and just jump on the most extreme solution, and start spreading that all over the internet. It’s no different than in the summer when there is a tropical wave that is just moving off the coast of Africa and there are people online talking about the Category 4 that is going to obliterate Miami in 13 days. This is why people really need to be sure they get their forecasts from a trusted source.

    Excerpts from the discussions I wrote for our clients over the past several nights:

    Wednesday night: “Clouds stream back in on Monday ahead of a low pressure system heading toward the Mid-Atlantic states. There is still plenty of uncertainty with the evolution of this storm, but there is the potential for accumulating snow for Monday night and Tuesday.”

    Thursday night: “We’re still monitoring the potential for a storm system to impact the region Monday night and Tuesday. There is a wide range of solutions from the various computer models, ranging from a complete miss to the south, to a moderate to potentially heavy snowstorm. Until the models start to converge on a solution, confidence is fairly low in this part of the forecast.”

    Saturday morning: “After that, we turn our attention to low pressure heading toward the Mid-Atlantic states which is expected to pass south of New England on Tuesday. There is still some disagreement amongst the models, but it is looking more likely that we’ll have a period of snow and some gusty winds on Tuesday. The amount and duration will be dependent on the actual track the storm takes, which is still uncertain”

    Sunday morning: “The system will pass south of New England during the day on Tuesday. There are still some discrepancies among the models, but it appears as though a plowable snow event is likely. The system will be moving quickly, with snow mainly between sunrise and sunset, with some bursts of heavy snow and gusty winds likely. ”

    We alerted our clients to the potential 6 days in advance, but even 48 hours before the storm we were stressing the uncertainty. Meanwhile, people online (not here) were posting model snow maps and talking about it like it was a mortal lock.

    This storm has been a really good example of a phrase TK uses all the time: “Meteorology vs Modelology”. Alternately, a phrase my boss uses often also works “If the models were as good as people seem to think they are there would be no need for meteorologists”

    OK, rant over.

    1. I’m not clear on who your rant is directed to. I saw your maps each day and they were in line with our main media Mets. I’m assuming..yes I know what Felix said…..you are referring to folks other than our major Mets

    1. I was wondering if this would happen. I remember it happened once in my town in the early 90’s. I was NOT happy

  198. Looking at the latest HRRR run most of CT will get a nice snowfall. The exception far northwest CT.
    Snow coming down at a moderate clip now.

    1. As I said, the temps are marginal. This is why some short range guidance had a stripe of rain at the start and some did not. Apps, in general, are unreliable for details. You’ll be snowing soon.

  201. Temperature down to 29 where I am.
    Hoping this will make it a little easier to shovel later and with a temperature in the upper 20s hopefully it will make it a little more powdery than wet.

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