Tuesday February 13 2024 Forecast (7:03AM)

372 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 13-17)

A lot of forecasts had to be adjusted in short order due to a rare mass poor modeling of an event that was literally 24 hours from its beginning. Not something we often see, and it will usually catch everybody off guard in the age of technology-infused forecasting. That’s why phases like “guidance not gospel” and “meteorology not modelology” are important to remember, but even knowing that sometimes isn’t going to save your well-thought-out forecast from taking a hit. This is pretty much one of those cases. That said, we still do get hit by a winter storm today. It’s just not as big a hit and not as far to the north as previously prognosticated. The storm responsible for today’s snow (which still starts as rain in some areas) is going to track about 50 miles further south and intensify a little less than anticipated about 24 hours ago, so a significant forecast adjustment will be made regarding snow amounts, which you will see in the detailed forecast that appears below. After the low pressure area passes our region today and moves seaward tonight, the rest of the forecast is generally the same in terms of timing of systems and overall weather expected. A cold front may bring a snow shower early Wednesday. A small and quick-moving low pressure area will bring a shot of snow (some mix/rain South Coast) Thursday night / early Friday, and if there’s one change, this one looks a little more widespread in coverage than it did previously. The follow-up system for Friday night and early Saturday looks a little less impactful, with this one more likely to produce just snow showers. Basically those two systems look opposite to 24 hours ago.

TODAY: Overcast. Snow, likely starts as rain near and east of I-95 before changing to snow. Snow starts to taper off and end from west to east later in the day to early evening. Expected snow accumulations 1-3 inches Nantucket and Martha’s Vineyard, 3-6 Cape Cod and immediate South Coast of MA/RI/CT, 6-9 inches everywhere else south of I-90, 3-6 inches I-90 from central MA to the North Shore of Boston, 1-3 inches northeastern MA and southern NH, around 1 inch southwestern NH and far north central MA. Temperatures steady 30-37 through midday, falling into the 20s by evening. Wind NE increasing to 10-20 MPH inland and 15-30 MPH coast, higher gusts likely especially MA South Shore through Cape Cod and Islands, over 40 MPH at times in those areas.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 15-22. Wind NW 10-20 MPH. Wind chill below 10.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Chance of snow showers in the morning. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH. Wind chill near to below 20 at times.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 13-20. Wind NW 5-15 MPH. Wind chill below 10.

THURSDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Highs 31-38. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with snow except some mix/rain South Coast. Up to an inch or two of snow may accumulate mainly away from the South Coast. Lows 27-34. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Any early snow showers ending with a sun/cloud mix. Highs 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers overnight. Lows 21-28. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers in the morning. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 18-22)

A disturbance brings scattered snow showers to the region February 18. Generally dry but cold weather expected February 19 through 21. Another shot at snow to end the period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 23-27)

Dry through mid period, and another storm threat later in the period. Temperatures near to below normal.

372 thoughts on “Tuesday February 13 2024 Forecast (7:03AM)”

  1. Getting to the Bruins later will be easier than I thought just 24 hours ago. I’ll take it. 🙂

    1. Should take about an hour to go over. We are starting as rain here in Woburn too. Very light. As soon as we get a bit more intensity, the column will cool adequately. Should be snow by 8:00 here.

  6. Thanks TK

    We have about .75 on nonpaved surfaces. Road is starting to get covered. Good call on no school here. Timing is not good for buses.

      1. Your temp has probably gone down 5 degrees already, which is an example of the cooling process with the precip.

    2. Pretty much everywhere from your area southward will have exactly what would have taken place if the thing didn’t shift. That shift didn’t impact the southern areas all that much, just the northern areas, as you know. 🙂 But from a personal standpoint, I won’t complain since I have B’s tickets today! Anyway, off to work I go first! 🙂 Be safe, enjoy the day.

  7. And the usual met-bashing is running rampant on social media. Hilarious. People seriously don’t get it. Oh well, their ignorance, their loss. Learn the craft and do it better than we do. I challenge them. 😉

    1. As you know I don’t usually pay attention but when people I respect are targeted I can’t not respond. I forget Toms words last night but they were perfect. It may have been mark who mentioned that there is also support. I’m hoping our Mets hear that

    2. Met-bashing is TERRIBLE. Sign of the times in which people think they have license for ad hominem (and other kinds of) attacks. I really can’t stand the time we’re living in in this regard.

  8. I see NAM and HRR certainly putting down from QPF

    The bashing of the Mets needs to stop, people can be awful and social media makes people keyboard warriors. This stuff doesn’t happen in other countries. I don’t get why we are like this. It’s really sad state of affairs.

  13. Speaking of attacks and even threats of harm – again, a sign of the times – my ex-wife, who is a judge in a high court in the Netherlands, has been threatened on social media for a decision that came down yesterday regarding deliveries of F-35 parts to Israel. It was a major news item worldwide. The 3 judge panel ordered the Dutch government to stop such deliveries. Their reasoning had nothing to do with being pro Hamas or anti-Semitic or even anti-Israel. It had to do with the humanitarian catastrophe that has unfolded in Gaza, exacerbated by the use of F-35s to bomb civilian areas. Yet, the threats to life and limb have been rampant. It’s social media trolls, to be sure. But the fact that people think they have license as keyboard warriors to do this is absolutely appalling.

  17. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Raining here in JP, but susoect it will go over to snow soon.

    Hey, what if they gave a snowstorm and it didn’t accumulate???
    Just wondering.

    I am surprisinly well this morning despite that false report of furniture being thrown out my window And, I never vomitted last evening either. I did, however, enjoy quite a laugh.

    Glad I wasn’t an on air met having to deal with that. Eric and Pete were most gracious about it all, that’s for sure. Yes had to see what they had to say.

  18. Thanks, TK.

    Rain and 36F where I am. This feels a lot like the January storm, at least here in Boston. It may wind up producing less than the January storm in terms of snow.

    For all snow events at the coast, despite being minor, clipper systems may be our best bet moving forward this winter. I’m serious.

  19. Vicki you are correct 7 inches in West Hartford CT. They are currently in the heavy snow band. S plus snow which is heavy snow at Brainard airport in Hartford

  21. Good morning and thank you TK.

    My jaw nearly dropped looking out of the window this morning. We have 6” of snow here in Coventry and snowing hard. So much for the models shifting south last night. I have never seen such poor short range model performance in my life! I got the sense something was up last night when I saw the radar start to fill in nicely over northern CT.

    https://i.postimg.cc/504Q7K7G/IMG-8006.jpg

    1. Please send up this way!

      Still raining and 37. Rain just does not have the intensity to flip it over! IF the intensity could increase it would flip instantly!!!!

  22. Yeah this one is cooked here in Boston , update below from the NWS.

    815 AM Storm Update:

    * Rain changes to snow in Boston by noon.
    * Heavy snow through 1 pm then focus shifts to Cape Cod/Islands 1-5 pm

  25. Walked the shore and the rain and wind picked up throughout. Still raining. Being on the north shore, I don’t expect much if any snow.

    Visibility permitting, I might go back to the shore towards high tide. The surge is very likely to come over the wall.

  26. To TK,

    We need a win tonight! The B’s roller coaster performance is causing anguish. Have fun!

    Longshot

  28. Boston hasn’t had a snow event of more than 3.6 inches in 720 days, which is a record. It’s highly unlikely we’ll get even 2 inches today. Moving forward, it’s possible that we may have to wait until December or January for our next >4 inch snow event in the city. By then we’ll be over 1,000 days removed from a real snow event (real being defined here as 4 inches or above).

    2. I have read this in several places and still not sure if the articles really mean Boston or Logan.

      I see some snow chances down the pike, but don’t think I see anything yet that would deliver 4.” (Others here might see more than I do.) Spring is 34 days away. Not that it can’t snow after March 19th, but obviously less probable.

    1. Wise to cancel here. Although I am also seeing the superintendents getting bashed as much as our weather folks. And I’d bet it’s mostly the same parents doing the bashing that insist on knowing the night before.

  30. Look at it this way. We have had a string of crap winters. At some point we will have an above or much above winter . Got to get these crap winters out of the way. We are 5 years into a low snow cycle. Weather always balances out

  33. All those school closings…all the appointments people had then rescheduled. I had 2 today, canceled one, the other got rescheduled. For this? Pffft.

  35. Pounding heavy wet snow here at 31F. We are coming down at 1-2” per hour easy. I think we have a shot at double digit snow totals after all.

    Saw a report earlier of 2.3” in one hour at Farmington.

    Very sharp cut off to the north though. BDL, which is only 10 miles north of West Hartford had only 1” at 7am at the same time West Hartford had already reported 7”.

  37. Thank you TK.
    Wow Mark nice, I think we will overachieve on this one in the long run. I’m closing in on 4” already and the radar looks promising for more moderate to heavy snow. Could that be a nice stationary band setting up from Torrington ct to southern Worcester ? Maybe. Let’s hope.

  38. We are FINALLY beginning to transition to SNOW. Now let’s see HOW long it takes and HOW productive the snow is.
    It has boundary layer temps to overcome and warm ground temperatures as well. 🙂 🙂 🙂

    1. That is outstanding!!!! TIME WELL SPENT my friend!!!

      LOVE IT!!!!

      If TK doesn’t like that, then I don’t know what’s wrong with the world!!!!!!

  40. To clarify, my post on 4 inches of snow pertains to Boston, not other places! It’s been 720 days since we’ve had a snow event of more than 3.6 inches, which is a record. I’d be stunned if we got 4 inches of snow out of this event in Boston. Anything is possible. But just like in life a lot of things are unlikely.

    It’s 35.6F and raining lightly in Boston, by the way. Even in the January storm the precipitation intensity was MUCH greater.

  41. Moderate snow here in Padanaram along Buzzards Bay. Temp 32 – dropped three degrees in past two hours. Roads covered in snow and so are trees so hoping wind stays lite

  42. I am still dumbfounded at the short range models. A few hours before the onset of precip…..HRRR at 10PM last night had me at 0.1″ of snow and we are well on our way to getting 100 times that amount, lol. Horrendous.

  43. There are some pretty solid radar echoes out there.
    If we could just flip, we might yet salvage a few inches out of this.

    So frustrating, yet I am dealing with it so much better then I would have in years past. It is what it is and there isn’t anything I can do about it other than roll with it. 🙂

      1. Appearances are deceiving. I’ve been under one of these echos for the last 30 mins and it’s not intense. Light to moderate at best

  44. 8″ and counting here in Coventry.

    Just beautiful outside and the dog is loving it!

    https://imgur.com/mPM4qHf

    This banding SHOULD set up more in a SW to NE direction as time moves on so hopefully a good chuck of Eastern MA gets into it more soon.

    1. Excellent. At least some bloggers are receiving the snow.
      STILL RAINING here with occasional snow flakes mixed in.
      It stubbornly will NOT flip over!!

      Send that band this way!!!

    1. I see occasional flakes,but it doesn’t do any good as it
      is basically RAINING!@#U)(!*@)(#*!)(@*#)(!@*#)(!*@)(#*)!(@

      1. I think that the ocean is having more influence than we thought it would!!!

        Repeat after me!

        BOUNDARY LAYER
        BOUNDARY LAYER
        BOUNDARY LAYER

        Ok, you can go back to what you were doing now.

    1. Toss the short range models. They have been completely useless in this storm. It’s look out the window and radar watching time.

  49. I just measured 8 inches of snow. It is currently snowing at a moderate clip. I think I might get into double digits for snowfall which I did not think was going to happen when I went to bed last night.

  52. Mark the original snowfall forecast that came out from our local stations here in CT look like they will verify.

  53. On the north edge, where the precip is light to occasionally moderate, will it struggle to ever go to all snow or go back and forth all day ? There’s really no cold boundary layer air to move in and if the intensity really never kicks in, what’s the magic to flip it to snow ????

      1. Yeah, I don’t know if I’ll come close to what marshfield is being projected to get, still for this reason.

  54. It’s colder under the heavier snow, Fall River is 34F than it is under the light rain, Boston is 37F, which makes sense in this never ending set-up of marginal temps, precip intensity dependent storms.

  56. Thanks Tom. 8 inches was the biggest snowfall so far at my place back the first weekend of January. This one will be the biggest so far this winter as I am already at 8 inches.

  58. Remarkable to see parts of the Cape sitting at 33 and moderate snow and rain here. Not sure I have ever seen that before. Amazing.

  59. So I guess what’s happening near Hartford is the wild card the next 4 hrs in marshfield and Boston. Is there a band that sets up almost near where the precip literally cuts off ?

    Will it translate eastward or reform or maintain intensity and set up around Boston to the south shore for a couple hrs ??

  61. Joshua, I saw your comment above. How terrifying for your ex wife. We clearly are not the only country that has gone off its tracks. The world is a mess

  63. Just toss what the guidance is saying right now and enjoy the snow if you are in one those moderate to heavy snowfall areas in CT.

  64. We are 33 now with light snow and 3 Inches even. It’s enough for kids to sled on the hill outside and to play in. They are thrilled.

  66. Widespread 12″+ amounts going to be coming in across Hartford County and the NWS downgraded there to an advisory at the 4am update.

    What a forecasting disaster this storm was overall. This will be a good one to do a thorough post analysis on.

    1. Just impressive banding set up from Danbury to just west and north of Hartford to northern Tolland County. May be some 15″ totals in there.

      I’m not even in that band and am up over 9″.

  67. It’s already 10AM and STILL RAINING HERE!!!!!

    I am NOT even seeing the occasional snow flake I was previously.

    OH, and btw the RAIN IS LIGHT!!!

    It is NOT even raining hard at all.

    PATHETIC!!!!!

  71. Sturbridge getting in on that banding. Not seeing much movement in that convergence area, seems to be establishing itself right there

  72. Current radar. Nice echoes UNTIL they reach the coast, then they diminish and become RAIN!!!

    https://ibb.co/hF2HQgB

    My temp is down to 36 and that is “usually” the magic number
    for flipping to snow.

    So far NO! and NO Intensity to do so either!

  73. I can tell you it is coming down and I could confirm what the radar is showing with that band in CT is correct.

  74. It’s snowing in pembroke & sticking . What’s the number here looking like this morning . It’s 32 as of now . I got offered a $50 plowing of my driveway but I declined the offer .

  75. So is this what it was like in the old days when there was no models and radar and people just dealt with whatever happened? Clearly that is what it must feel like in Hartford

  84. We’re going back and forth btwn snow, when it’s heavier and mix when it’s lighter.

    I’ll be happy to get a C-2 inches, if that can work out.

    Boston tide gauge showing +2 ft surge onto 11.2 ft later on with some waves, should be some minor flooding around 1:30 high tide.

  85. Just a cold light rain here in Boston. 35.3F. No intensity. Good lord I’m sick of this `winter.’

    I’m happy for Mark, JJ and others who are in the storm’s bullseye for snow.

  86. To Joshua’s point, the pattern, while its changing didn’t change the sensible feature of the boundary layer in this event.

    I’m pretty sure if we had polar air and we’ve probably had .2-.3 melted, I’d have 2-4 inches already but because it’s another precip intensity dependent BS, I’m looking at bare ground. Boston would probably have had 1-3 already.

    1. Yup.

      Whether later this year or next, we’re not going to remember how to forecast snow when it’s in the teens and 20s during an event.

  88. Some very intense echos just south of LI look to make it to the Cape and Islands. Everything is getting sucked toward the low center. This thing will be racing out of here by early afternoon

  89. Thanks TK.

    Well… bust for Boston, but woe to those who went all in on the 18/0z runs last night. In general, would’ve served best to just stick with the original ideas from yesterday, a broad-brushed 6-10+ from metro Boston and the Pike southward. Would’ve been wrong in some places but right in others. Instead, many mets will basically end up wrong everywhere, and wrong multiple times (I.e., too high, then too low).

    Definitely not trying to call anyone out, my thinking was dreadfully wrong for the Boston area. But when it comes to forecast trust, sometimes a wrong but consistent forecast can do more good than a forecast that is slightly better in the end but wildly inconsistent. Nonetheless, by all means, an extremely difficult forecast worthy of further study as to what caused some of the model inaccuracy.

    2. Well said.

      Meteorology and interpretations by meteorologists will forever be evolving, even with the most sophisticated models.

      It’s what fascinates me about weather: The unpredictability.

      There are always going to be confounding factors in models, short- and long-range, in exogenous `shocks’ to the system, in anomalous but persistent patterns.

  90. Down to 35 here now and the SNOW is now coming in waves.
    It will snow very hard and lighten up, but NOT go back to a mix.
    Officially ALL SNOW now. 🙂

    1. Hopefully it stays that way! Not to burst your bubble, but even when all snow, it’s not accumulating much. It’s been moderately all snow here since 9am and we have maybe 1/2” of sloppy wet sh**

      1. Oh, I’m not expecting much.

        Remember what I posted earlier?

        What if they gave a snow storm and it didn’t accumulate!

        🙂 🙂

  91. While by no means perfect, I would say the overall best guidance for this system was the Canadian suite, as it has been for most of this season. It fairly consistently captured the “south lean” and didn’t buy in on the huge early snow projections, but without going to the extent of some of the crazy far south/dry runs yesteday…

  92. Interesting.
    It is snowing here in JP and I just checked with our facilities director at the office in Roxbury. Still RAINING there! 3.4 miles away and that is by car, closer as the crow flies. 🙂

    2. Still all rain here in Back Bay.

      When all is said and done, here we might end up with 1 inch of glop. I don’t even like calling it snow, but glop does have a frozen component to it.

      1. I’m NOT an expert, but as I’ve said before a problem plaguing most coastal areas this winter is the lack of antecedent cold prior to storms, the lack of a true Arctic push of cold air during storms (what’s behind this storm isn’t all that cold), AND last but not least an anomalously warm ocean with wind coming directly off it. The only coastal areas that can get real accumulating snow during systems like these are places where the intensity of precipitation is great and sustained.

  96. So around hr 66 on the GFS, do we think the clipper will suddenly shift 50 miles south that we need it to ?

    Of course not, it will probably go 30 miles further north.

  99. Vicki, thanks for your comment regarding threats made towards judges (in connection with their ruling on delivery of F-35 parts to Israel) in the Netherlands, including my ex-wife, on social media. It’s a disturbing trend. One of the threats said the “Mossad should kill the judges and their families.” Sure, it’s very likely an empty threat. But the fact that such language finds a home on social media sites is very worrisome.

    Twitter has become a cesspool under the mismanagement by Elon Musk. Under the guise of supposed free speech he’s allowed the impermissible. There’s little or no moderating done by Twitter. It’s a free-for-all in which the loudest and most obnoxious voices on both the right and left dominate. And sometimes it’s far worse than obnoxious when physical threats are aired.

      1. That’s correct. In the first paragraph, I used the phrase “social media sites.” In the second paragraph I focused on Twitter, which I refuse to ever call X.

  100. I LOVE clipper systems. Ever since my father – who was a weather enthusiast – said the words “Alberta clipper” to me when I was 7 I was fascinated with the term. I know it’s a weird fascination. But we all have something strange we obsess about.

    2. That’s incredible. Hey the big numbers forecast didn’t miss
      by too many miles. Somehow the big numbers in CR mitigate the blown forecast up here, at least a little. 🙂

  105. Snow is mixing in with rain here, but precipitation isn’t intense and temperature is roughly the same as it’s been: 35:3F. Obviously no accumulation.

  113. Starting to add up a bit in Natick but still not impressive after 3-4 hours of decent snow. Looks like back end is coming up fast and appears to be near Holden. Roads fine on recent trip to Dunkin.

  114. “Best snow” of the system.

    The wooden deck has a slushy film on it and a couple shady areas on the lawns are greasing up a bit.

    This is the new standard of snow happiness.

  116. From meteorologist Mike Masco

    So just a quick note on this storm that should be a huge lesson to amateur forecasters and some meteorologist.. Stop using model data as gospel.. When something seems off; don’t just accept it.. Question it!!

    Also.. if you’re going to be wrong– be wrong once.. don’t change your forecast only to change it again. This creates confusion and distrust. Sometime it’s better to just leave the forecast alone and fall on the sword on whichever way it slices.

    1. I don’t know if I agree.

      I think we were all aware of the few outliers about 48-60 hrs ago, then even those jumped northward for a run. Then, people were identifying the trend showing up before the Super Bowl and then everyone was reacting yesterday to the huge shift southward.

      Point 2 disagree even more. The Boston Mets should have kept 8-12 up to the mass border even last night.

      I respectfully disagree with him.

  119. It’s snow now and the visibility is down. The ground has whitened up.

    I think I have about an hour in this, we’ll see if we get to 1, maybe 2 ??

    1. Wrapping up around 3 here tom I believe . Could get 2 here by that time but I’m not sure . Roads are all greased up here in pembroke

      1. I think we’re a bit behind you at the oceans edge as my road looks ok. Lawns have whitened up. Yes, that’s a realistic end/winding down time.

    2. Like last month’s storm – at the coast, that is – it’s so late March/April-like in terms of what it’s delivering. Uncanny resemblance, except this time even less snow for Boston than last month.

    1. Nice !

      I’m looking forward to those post storm snow maps.

      There’s going to be areas that got much more snow than the adjusted forecasts had, along with obviously the areas that got a lot less than forecasts from 24 hrs pre event.

    1. A normal projected snow shield. Instead, the storm is closer and the precip shield is so compact to the low.

      But 15 days out, that is really, really good !!

    2. Would also help if it were moving more NE than E.
      We lose the snow fast when the system is moving
      almost due EAST!!!!!!

    3. Ok, thanks JpDave !

      Yes, I definitely thought it was further north but I’m certainly not going to argue with the WPC 🙂 🙂 🙂

  130. CRUSHED!

    Took these shots a short time ago:

    https://imgur.com/jGaLqAg

    https://imgur.com/ah71UP0

    Looks like 12″ is going to be my final measurement. I did not clear the snow at all so likely was a bit more with settling. This snow is HEAVY. Basically stayed at 31F the whole event.

    If this were a colder storm with higher ratios, could have easily been 18″-20″. I am guessing this is 1.2″ QPF melted.

  131. Winds are picking up here. Still at 33 degrees. Nice band of snow over us now.

    Re: Eye of the storm. Didn’t hurricane hunters fly into this storm a day or so ago?

  133. Ryan Hanrahan
    @ryanhanrahan
    11m

    15.7″ storm total in West Hartford at
    @NBCConnecticut. 8″ of that fell between 7:15 and 11:15 a.m.!

  134. Guess I was wrong on the snow ratios….

    Ryan Hanrahan
    @ryanhanrahan
    10m

    The snow in the Hartford area was fairly fluffy given how efficient (and prolific) the dendrite production was. Managed more than a 16:1 snow to liquid ratio which helped juice up totals along I-84.

    Michael Solomonides
    @masolomonides
    14m

    Replying to @masolomonides @WX1BOX and @ryanhanrahan
    Correction – 15.5” snow total here in East Farmington Heights CT, with a liquid equivalent of 0.94” melted on the Stratus rain gauge from a representative core sample.
    @ryanhanrahan

    1. Thanks Joshua! Still like the looks of the pattern moving forward and I’m sure you’ll get in on the action with the next one.

      Going out to clear the driveway now….this is going to take awhile. 🙂

  136. We might have eked out an inch here. I walked near our primary school, and hearing the sounds of the children playing outside at recess made my day!

    My son had a snow day today at UMass Lowell. He said that there might be 1/2″ on the grass and nothing on the pavement. The biggest hazard is that you will slip on the piles of ice-melt that they always dump on the sidewalks 🙂

  137. Here the temp had gone down to 33.4F, but just went up to 33.7F when the snow/rain intensity diminished. The light snow/rain mix will end soon. A great big zilch in terms of accumulation. Not even on grassy surfaces here. Oh well.

    I’ve learned to expect nothing in life. And then when good things do happen it will be much appreciated.

  138. “How do weather people even still have jobs?”

    My “favorite” Facebook post of the day. 😉

    2. Here’s another:

      “You had ONE JOB, meteorologists.”

      Ignorance at its finest.

      They don’t get it…

      But hey, you’re welcome for the others we get right, which is most of them. 😉

      #YouDoItBetterThanUsBeforeYouBashUs

      😉

      1. That’s the thing.

        Those who post those would never write the your correct posts every time a forecast went well. And they’d be writing those probably 360-362 days per year. Nope, just the 3-5 days there’s an issue. 362/365 is a success rate unmatched in most other professions.

        People should be extremely thankful for what you, SAK, WxWatcher, JMA and all the Mets do. Save lives, investments, property and on and on.

  139. The only part I detest about this is ……

    Future cancellations are probably coming the morning of the event.

    And YES, that stinks !!!!!

    It’s a 5:30 call and I think most of us teachers have that type personality that like to have things planned out.

    I don’t like wondering, is there school, is there not ?? Yuck !!!!!!!!!

    1. We fully intended to wait until this morning but the number of teachers who didn’t have childcare and knew about it yesterday afternoon/evening forced our hand.

        1. My super has told me many times that the decision as to whether to keep the schools open or close them is, by far, the toughest decision she has to make, especially in Middleborough.
          Second to Plymouth, Middleborough is one of the largest towns in the state. It could be raining in south Middleborough next to Wareham and snowing to beat the band next to Bridgewater.

  142. To clarify one thing, Friday’s storm is absolutely NOT an ”
    Albert Clipper”. It starts in the Southern Plains then heads toward the Great Lakes before moving eastward toward New England. Never gets anywhere close to Alberta (or the rest of the Canadian Prairies).

  144. Have a great time at the game tonight, TK!

    Caught the Beanpot finals last night and again, on replay, this morning. Did NOT disappoint!!!

  147. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sn10_024h-imp&rh=2024021312&fh=72&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_024h-imp&rh=2024021312&fh=72&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=sn10_024h-imp&rh=2024021312&fh=72&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=icon&p=sn10_024h-imp&rh=2024021312&fh=72&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmet&p=sn10_024h-imp&rh=2024021312&fh=72&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Thursday night/very early Friday morning

    1. Every model delivers accumulating snow from this non-Alberta originating fast moving clipper like system….

      What could go wrong two days out?? Lol…

  148. Wind picking up here. I heard some tree cracking in the woods behind the house. Temp steady at 33. 4” on the dot total.

  151. NY got 3.2 from this storm. They are up to 5.5 for the season.
    Where is Boston at for snowfall this winter?

  152. Eric made a comment today and he is the 2nd meteorologist in the last few days I have heard it from, but can’t remember the other one.

    Eric either STATED or strongly IMPLIED that we would not have any daytime highs below 32 for the rest of this winter. I hope I caught this right. At first, I thought that can’t be and now when I look ahead I’m not so sure he’s wrong at all. Looking at it from the flip side, how wrong could he be … probably not by much if at all.

  154. In other news …

    Spring: 34 days away.

    Spring Training Games: The Northeastern Huskies play the Sox on 2/23 at Jet Blue Park, and the Sox play the Orioles on 2/24 in Sarasota.

    Winter isn’t over by a Longshot, but wanted to look ahead.

  158. Just went out to return the trash barrels. Was spitting a few flakes. Examined the grass. Just snow clinging to the blades.
    Cleaned off my care. “Perhaps” 1/4 inch of white glop on my
    roof and hood. That was all she wrote.

    0.25 inch of snow. I DOUBT very much that Logan recorded any measurable snow. If so, very little like 0.10 inch or something.

  159. **** THEORY ****

    My wife has this theory as to why the models have had so much trouble lately. All of the code/algorithms programmed into the models are based on how the atmosphere used to be. Now with global warming and the Hunga Tonga–Hunga eruption, the models the models are NOT simulating the atmosphere properly.

    Right or wrong, pretty astute for someone who doesn’t follow meteorology.

      1. I mean it may not even be close to correct, but I was so proud of her that she came up with that. 🙂 🙂 She’s always thinking.
        I didn’t think of that other than maybe Tonga.

        Thanks Tom.

        1. Absolutely !

          I was driving the other night to pick up my daughter, no sports on the radio and I was thinking myself about the extra 1.5C in the atmosphere and whether the current physics and math equations programmed into them work at these new temps. So, I had the same thought 🙂

          1. Clearly something is up. I have been coding computers for nearly 60 years!!! And I can’t even begin to imagine
            the code required to support these models!!!!!!!

            It wouldn’t take much to screw them all up.

    2. I don’t think she’s far off.

      Models can only account for what’s put into them. If what’s put into them, based on historic precedent among other variables, is garbage then, well, … you get garbage.

      There are several anomalies that are conspicuous at the coast, as I see it: 1.Lack of antecedent cold, really with any snow event during this winter and last (remarkably persistent feature); 2. Relatively warm ocean water; 3. No real Arctic push of air behind any of the systems during this winter and last.

      Where we can hold out some `hope’ is with the upcoming clipper systems, wherever they originate from. Maybe an inch or 2 each time. Who knows.

      Nevertheless, I’m not holding out much hope.

      Going forward, I’ll take the occasional winter’s day with sun and, say, 34F, and enjoy it. Perhaps we’ll squeak by with some snow squalls, which I’ll enjoy, too.

      1. You are certainly correct with the 3 points, Independent of that, things never even materialized around here. The one earlier in the year was overwhelmed by the boundary layer due to very warm ocean. This last one never got any intensity here to over come the boundary layer.

        Missed opportunities. Just one of those years.

    3. HTE I am all in on. The longer-term climate shifting probably not as much. There’s much more time to adjust for it. But the combination of the two would probably be an added factor.

      It is likely going to take years of research to really confirm how much impact that stratospheric moisture has / had.

      There are some estimations that the impact from it, however large or small, can continue for up to another six to eight years.

      2. I didn’t see your comment. Maybe. The moisture in the stratosphere doesn’t seem to the concern. The added damage to the ozone layer and the smaller amount of warming is thought to possibly/probably pushing earth over the 1.5 level set by the UN

        “Earth’s average temperature is teetering on the edge of surpassing its preindustrial level by 1.5°C—the target set by the United Nations in the Paris Agreement. In May 2022, the World Meteorological Organization announced there was a 50% chance of exceeding the 1.5°C threshold over the next 5 years. The new study showed that slight warming caused by the HTHH eruption increased the likelihood of Earth temporarily tipping past that mark by another 7%.”

    4. Makes good sense. Every paper I have read has said warming drives but HTHH will add. The fear is that folks will begin to see HTHH as the cause and not contributor. Very impressive theory.

    5. Well, as someone familiar with these codes and equations, this is mostly a wrong way of looking at it (but I’ll get back to why there is perhaps some merit, too). The models simulate basic physics, basically a very complicated F=ma you learned in high school physics. The laws of physics apply equally well regardless of minor changes in the climate state. Moreover, we more or less use similar weather model codes to study radically different Earth climates (and, even other planetary atmospheres).

      But, the resolution of weather models is sufficiently coarse that many, many processes can’t be so nicely represented in terms of well-understood equations like F=ma. For instance, clouds are often much smaller than 3km, and worse, cloud microphysics occurs on even much smaller scales. So these things are represented by parameterizations that are a sometimes a crude representation of our best scientific understanding. Often there are free parameters in these schemes that are chosen by educated guesswork and empirical studies. Different models use different parameterization schemes — and such go a long way toward explaining why different models give different results. There are many, many such parameterizations needed even in our most hi-res models. Some are quite accurate — eg clear-sky radiation, some are very uncertain (and of dubious accuracy in some instances).

      Finally, weather models undergo significant “tuning”, fine tweaking of these aforementioned parameters. Here’s where your argument makes a bit of sense: current models are basically tuned to the historical record and climate of the last 50 years. Still, in the grand scheme of things, a global climate state 1K warmer is not very different than the 1950-2000 climate state. Moreover, the seasonal cycle and geographic variation are much larger than 1K (ie we simulate both the tropics and high latitudes, over summer and winter). So while not knowing the precise answer to how much a “re-tuning” to a warmer climate state could improve models, I might speculate maybe a tiny bit?

      2. Very interesting. I read twice. Sore of understand. And will read again. Thank you for taking the time.

        Now my question. You clearly read here so probably know I’ll have one. And it’s from a laypersons POV. And you may have answered already, but I just don’t have the understanding to have recognized the answer.

        I know models can be off. I know they differ and understood some of your reasoning on that topic. But What went wrong. As different as they can be and as hard to interpret as they can be, this seems to have been way over the top.

        Thank you very much for taking the time to put all of that together and it is nice to have you join us!

        1. Specifically on today’s fairly epic fail (and late guidance shift), I wish I had some better answers 🙁 There are a lot of things that can go wrong in general, things that are typically discussed on this site. A major one is limited or bad sampling of current observations going into the data assimilation process keeping the models on track. Folks here often have a good sense about processes or phenomena that the models don’t do so well, or are biased one way or another. Often this gets back to these imperfect parameterizations I mentioned earlier.

          A few points about today: even as we were getting near the storm and into short-range model territory, there was quite a spread in model solutions. JPD was never faltered in pointing out some runs with unimpressive snow amounts! I would comment, any kind of sharp gradient in the solution (temp, precip etc) is always a red flag: in forecasting, you can easily be very very wrong with slight shifts in the position, and moreover these sharp gradients are tough for the models to handle (limited resolution and numerics being a factor). My take-away, I would think this case today a good one to examine more carefully on what did go wrong, in hope of targeting improvements, if possible.

          1. Awesome answer and one I can easily understand. I cannot thank you enough for your time and reasoned responses. What a great addition to the blog. I too hope there will be a deeper dive into what went wrong and more so that we hear about it.

          2. MrSpock, I should have signed off my last comment with:

            Live Long and Prosper

            https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Iu1qa8N2ID0

            Are you currently or previously a Met? or an atmospheric Scientist?

            I am fascinated by your responses. I don’t recall seeing you here before, but that could be just I.

            WELCOME!!!!

            I’d swear you were Dr. Judah Cohen or Barry Burbank.

            Would love to see you more here.

            Thank you.

            1. neither 🙂 Although Judah was on my forecasting team for a short bit back 25 years ago (I’m a researcher/educator at a local university). My main research is on understanding climate (and the role of oceans in climate) and working with climate models, which are more or less the same codes as weather models as I noted.

  161. Logan reporting .24 melted

    Marshfield at .35 melted.

    TF Green, Providence area .76 melted

    Bridgeport, CT .68 melted

    .24 and .35 melted not great, but not 0 either.

    Frustrating …….

    1. Hey, It’s NOT the end of the World, at least not yet. 🙂

      Right now, I don’t give a rat’s ass if we see another snow flake
      this Winter. I really don’t. If it comes will I enjoy it? Of Course, but at this point, I really don’t care anymore! 🙂 🙂 🙂

      1. Me, too.

        I figure next winter in the Northeast is bound to be like it’s been in Scandinavia all winter this year. We’re due.

      2. Indeed !

        As you know, I want some snow but I’m ok if it doesn’t snow.

        I think it’s the change so close to the event starting.

        Even the ensembles fairly supported the op runs, I think.

        So, I can tell I got my anticipation up on this one.

        Previous storms, like that one I thought would have more coastal snow, which I truly believed, but I wasn’t fully certain and I didn’t get truly excited for that one cause I knew that ocean could sink me.

        So, this is really my first feeling of major disappointment this winter. Not about my own forecasting thoughts, but for missing out on snow.

      3. Hey wait! Didn’t you already say that after a recent missed opportunity? 😉

        Or maybe I’m just thinking of last year lol

  162. Well since I don’t have to shovel my driveway before I leave for the Bruins, I guess I can go by and make a surprise visit to Mom!

    1. I hope she’s made more positive progress !

      Good luck to the B’s tonight, fairly long homestand They need to get going again !

    1. Interesting.

      This low appears to be moving ESE or SE

      If it can sink south just a little more (and that’s meant as a joke) so we are just north of the track.

  165. Driveway cleared & lightly salted ( ran out ) but I better go get another bag & put down with the dropping temperature tonight, snow was like cement ( completely water logged!!

  166. I’m reading Eric Fisher.

    Falmouth, Sandwich, at least 6 inches of cement.

    Some yellows down that way on the current power outage map.

  168. Mom is doing well. Tired from physical therapy, but that’s a good thing!

    Next visit tomorrow afternoon.

        1. Ugh. I asked because food was my brothers main complaint. I can chat with you offline. If there is a restaurant your mom likes in the area, I’m betting I’d can have DoorDash deliver to the facility. I did this for my brother.

  171. By the way, if you want to view a place where it’s been cold and snowy ALL winter here it is: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ol31hIWX46w

    The camera is set up at a train station in Scandinavia. I don’t think I’ve seen the temperature go above -2C (28F) since late November. The stability of the cold (colder than average, too) pattern there is astonishing. I am also extraordinarily envious.

  172. Cool little storm. 15″ I84 corridor west of Hartford, but only 7″ 15 miles away at BDL, 2″ 15 miles further north in Springfield, 0.0″ 15 miles further north in Amherst.

    I am home until March 12 when I go back to England. I hope to chime in a bit more.

    I love Clippers! I think this one may be a bit further north than modeled, which may once again reduce accumulation in Boston proper.

  174. JMA, I’ll be in England at the end of March, about a week after you fly there. Will it be like March of 2022 when every flower was out, leaves on most trees and I had sun for an entire week?

  176. From Ryan Hanrahan

    Is there a link between hard forecasts and climate change? My take is no… these events aren’t more difficult to forecast due to CC- our computer guidance is aware of the current state of our atmosphere. Some events will be worse but actual forecasting isn’t really impacted.

    1. Interesting. Appears others are thimkng along the same lines as Mrs OS. Thanks JJ. Spock’s comments were great on this.

    1. Boston is essentially a no snow zone for the past 720 days and counting. It’s weird.

      Mayor Wu is contemplating selling all the city’s snow plows at bargain basement prices to “towns that need them.” She didn’t specify which towns. She will also look into removing all signage in the city indicating “snow emergency” as, in her words, these signs serve as “micro aggressions in the community … they provoke unnecessary anxiety in people who think it will snow when in reality snow in Boston is just a social construct.”

    2. We have a bluebird house in the yard where they nest sadly last year the barn swallows broke all their eggs. But my daughter got these photos of a baby on a tree near the nest house being fed by an older sibling from the year before Babies stick around to help parents for a year or so

      https://imgur.com/a/2D3STsb

      1. I just got a feeder that holds cracked nuts and hope to get ours back. They were not eating the meal worm cake I had out

  179. I was just kidding about Mayor Wu’s statements regarding sale of snow plows and removing the words “snow emergency” from the street signage. Next time I’ll put in a joke alert. My apologies for creating confusion.

    1. Thank you. She was afraid to get closer and scare them. I love the tweet you shared. So many. Bluebirds. They are fascinating creatures. I don’t know how many juveniles stay around to help parents for a year.

      1. There’s a refuge called Caratunk (believe it’s part of Audubon) on the border between Massachusetts and Rhode Island. I don’t know the name of the town. It’s about 6 to 8 miles east of Providence. In any case, they have Eastern bluebirds and a variety of other birds.

        1. So cool. I can’t recall if you are on FB. If for no other reason there is an amazing page called wildlife of Worcester county and beyond. The photos folks post are stunning. I never knew we had so many species.

          My daughter and I are both Audubon members

  182. We all know about meteorological models sometimes having trouble forecasting what’s ahead.

    Well, at least they’re usually accurate and never as bad as political polls. Seriously. Don’t ever pay attention to any poll again. They’re all hopelessly wrong. Tonight’s special election in NY (Long Island) for the seat vacated by Republican Santos is a case in point. Poll numbers showed what looked like a very competitive race, essentially within a margin of error (latest poll conducted a couple of days ago showed the Dem ahead by 4 points). Well, in the end the Democrat blew the Republican out of the water. Looks like a 14 to 18 point victory. That’s a massive difference. We’ve seen this play out a lot in recent times.

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