Friday February 16 2024 Forecast (7:11AM)

106 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 16-20)

We finally have a pattern that brings the feel of winter for a string of days. Last night’s minor snowfall, while quick-hitting and not dropping much accumulation (generally a coating to just over 1 inch), leaves behind some icy areas where a partial melt and then re-freeze took place. Be aware of that if going outside today. In addition, a couple plumes of snow showers are about the region (one in southwestern and south central NH and another in central MA as of sunrise). These will dawdle about the region for a little while and will lower visibility and cause some additional minor snowfall accumulation where they are, but they should dissipate later on. Otherwise, look for a mainly dry but windy and cold day for the region in the wake of departing low pressure. Wind slackens later today and settles down tonight as a sliver of high pressure moves across the region.

The weather during the upcoming 3-day weekend will be governed by a trio of weather systems. Saturday, low pressure races eastward and tracks just south of New England, but far enough south that a shield of snow accompanying it only dusts areas south of I-90 with a brief period of light snow, while no more than a few flakes visit areas to the north. However, areas that largely miss out on the synoptic snow from the passing low to the south do stand the chance of seeing a passing snow shower from an upper level trough late in the day Saturday. Another low pressure area tracks quickly eastward across northern New England on Sunday, and with cold air in place this can bring a few snow showers to areas mainly north of I-90. The wind picks back up again on Sunday with the passage of that system, but not to the levels we will see during today. Finally, high pressure moves into the region for the Monday holiday with dry, more tranquil, but still chilly weather, which will also last through Tuesday.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Snow showers possible especially west of I-495 early to mid morning with briefly low visibility and small accumulation possible. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, gusts as high as 35-45 MPH, strongest through early afternoon with a gradual diminishment thereafter.

TONIGHT: A few passing low clouds evening departing to the east. Increasing high clouds overnight. Lows 20-27. Wind W diminishing to under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Overcast through mid afternoon – thickest to the south of I-90 where a period of light snow can result in a minor accumulation, and thinner to the north where the sun may be seen through it but a few snowflakes can fall. A clearing trend begins toward the end of the day. Highs 30-37. Wind W to variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. Lows 13-20. Wind variable to W up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. A passing snow shower possible. Highs 30-37. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 12-19. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts in the evening. Wind chill below 10 in the evening.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 27-34. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 15-22. Wind W under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind W to variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 21-25)

Disturbances around February 22 and 24 bring what look like fairly minor precipitation threat, otherwise a mostly dry weather pattern is anticipated. Temperatures start out somewhat above normal then trend slightly colder.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 26 – MARCH 1)

One or two additional unsettled weather threats take place this period, but far too soon to try to determine the magnitude and details of any threats. Temperatures near to slightly above normal for the period but with day-to-day variability.

106 thoughts on “Friday February 16 2024 Forecast (7:11AM)”

  6. Thank you TK.

    I’d say from what I measured, maybe a 1/2″ here. The walkway along the shore is icy and it is windy. Plenty of wind advisories are up.

    Gale Warning in Boston Harbor and maybe the Cape til 1 PM.

  10. Interesting…..
    the 12Z HRRR wants to bring the snow for tomorrow much farther North and continue it off and on for some time.

    Here is the total snow

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2024021612&fh=40&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Surface

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2024021612&fh=22&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    and later

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2024021612&fh=33&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

  12. We’re living in a time of widespread denialism and anti-science. It’s disturbing. Worse, it has deadly consequences. In the 1980s and early 90s I watched people die of AIDS. Since then – and so for 3 decades – I’ve worked on multiple public health projects related to HIV/AIDS. Giving AIDS denialists a platform, as Joe Rogan does, is morally repugnant and has deadly consequences. I don’t know how the guy can sleep at night. https://www.forbes.com/sites/joshuacohen/2024/02/15/joe-rogan-provides-a-platform-to-hivaids-denialists/?sh=625a82a0356b

    2. Everyone like him wants to find an audience in some way … and make money off it. If HIV/AIDS doesn’t work, he’d find another topic. Holocaust never happened; neither did Sandy Hook; no ever landed on the moon; and Covid never happened.

  13. Thanks JpDave for the HRRR and NAMs update !

    The HRRR dumps 2″ of snow from Lowell to Boston tomorrow with pretty serious snow squalls and I feel like I can see hints of snow showers or a squall on the NAM too, in addition to the synoptic snow from the storm well to the south.

  23. Was just about to post about tomorrow, certainly a big tick north on some of the short range models. Maybe we cash in this time 🙂

  26. ORH = 36.2”
    BOS = 9.7”
    NYC = 5.5”

    Boston = 0.4” yesterday evening

    Tomorrow’s system could very well chew into Boston’s lead (such as it is). We will see.

  27. Using all the scientific tools I have, I was able to determine that the total snowfall for today in my area was .0000000000001.”

    Actually that might be a little high!

      1. I like winters where we get a few light or moderate events plus 1 big snowfall. I do not see it happening though early March might produce something.

        I think I read it has been well over 700 days since Boston had a 4″ accumulation. I also swear I heard Eric and one other meteorologist say that there might not be any daily highs below 32F until next winter.

        1. Would NOT surprise me in the slightest.

          Color me skeptical about ANY big snows the rest of the way. Hope we get one. but with out luck, if there is a BIG one it will either slip out South of us OR move Inland and provide RAIN or snow to RAIN!!!!

  30. Thanks, TK!

    Thanks, Sue!!!! The kids left for their break at 11:30. We have teacher meetings until 2:20. Countdown has started!!!!

  33. Longshot, it’s been 725 days and counting since Boston had 4 inches or more in a snow event. Smashed the previous record. It’s very likely to extend at least another few weeks and my guess is until next December at the very least. That’s stunning, in my opinion. I never would have thought it would happen in Boston.

      1. It may Tk but realistically it’s not definitely as there is no way of knowing . We have had opportunities & there just not working out , hopefully we do get one or a few .

  34. The snowdrops are up in my backyard. The first sign of spring and that winter is just about over. Oh well. Maybe next year. 🙂

    1. Awesome. We don’t have snowdrops. I’m still not sure I know what they are. Crocus is our first sign. Was fun to spot.

  35. Just went out to clean off my car.
    Guess what, the higher sun angle did the job. Car is totally
    clear of the snow. 🙂

  36. TK, you could very well be right. I trust your judgement.

    But I don’t think it’s crazy at this point to consider the likelihood of the streak (of no snow events > 3.6 inches) continuing this month and possibly much longer.

    Perhaps you felt this, too, this winter: Very little of the umph factor. Certainly none in the temperature department, some in the snow department but not at the coast. I don’t sense there being much umph going forward.

    Last winter was mostly umphless, but we did have VERY brief episodes of umph. Even that’s missing in Boston this year.

    1. If you recall, back in November, there wasn’t a lot of hint of a string of big storms for this winter, just times when I thought the snow opportunities would exceed other times. One of those was the first half of March. 🙂

  37. Umph doesn’t just happen in winters like 2011 and 2015, by the way. We had plenty of umph in 2022, some in 2021, in 2018, too.

    I do want some umph in the 2024-2025 winter.

  38. I think TK that the 4” drought could end this winter. There is a window of opportunity. What makes it difficult is that winter has been on a one month delay since the start so it is harder to become a believer. But I am still a believer!

  39. One thing that is for certain regardless of TK’s optimism is that Boston will NOT receive normal snowfall (49.2”) although since it’s an El Niño year, I don’t believe that was expected anyway. Would have to go on a real snow run in March/early April to catch up now.

  40. Rob Carolan, on WSAR this morning, did a great job explaining that, after February 15, the sun angle is high enough so that the sun’s rays are strong enough to penetrate pavement to the dirt below to melt most snowfall even at night.

  41. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_006h-imp&rh=2024021612&fh=36&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2024021612&fh=36&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    The HRRR, to some extent the NAM and to some extent the Euro have snow showers/squalls tomorrow afternoon, separate from this wave of low pressure passing well south tomorrow.

    I’ve included the precip/sfc map which shows a line of snow showers/squalls offshore and the Euro is painting .1 to .5 in many eastern areas during the 6 hr window from 18z to 00z

  43. About two dozen staff and students did a Polar Plunge this morning on the school’s tennis courts. It was basically a large dumpster filled with water and the participants dived off a portable deck. We had a bitter wind and snow blowing off the school roofs, but everyone had a great time!!!

    The real winner was Special Olympics Massachusetts! We raised more than $2500!!!

    The Captain (“Old School”) did NOT plunge!!!! 🙂

    1. That is wonderful that much was raised for a wonderful cause !

      No way I’d plunge either !!

      Have a relaxing, fun week, Captain !!

  44. Next Friday seems to be the most interesting time period….3 different solutions from the major models, but something is cooking.

    1. Amen to that! Now IF we could only get things lined up just right
      which we have NOT been able to do thus far this Winter. 🙂

    2. Don’t worry, Twitter will explode with the one that shows the most snow and the misconceptions will be off and running again. 😉

  48. Friday PM thoughts…

    The Joshua side of me is loving the cold and dry of today. The wind is harsh, but I like a challenge. 🙂

    No real changes to the weekend forecast. I saw some people around the net getting excited about a northward tick on short range guidance. What needs to be understood is not every low pressure area is a potential “big one”. If that thing came 75 to 100 miles closer, we’d get a 1 to 3 inch snowfall and maybe 3 to 6 along the South Coast. But it’s not going to, and the snow for Saturday will be just a few flakes for most, a few dusting/coatings, and maybe up to an inch along the South Coast and a couple inches over the islands to the south of Cape Cod. That’s it. There is the chance for a quick-hitting snow shower especially north of I-90 from late afternoon to early evening on Saturday in response to an upper level trough moving through, but as of now I don’t think these will be too impressive.

    The Sunday snow shower chance is still there as well – along with a return to windy conditions after lighter wind tomorrow.

    Bright / dry / chilly Presidents Day. A midweek moderation but nothing drastic.

    I still like the idea of 2 systems later next week (22nd & 24th). The second one has a little more chance to get its act together as I see it now, but nothing to me screams “look out here comes big snow”. The MJO, btw, which has not been the friend of the snow lover this winter, is about to pass through phases 8, 1, and 2, which are good for snow late winter … or I should say, WOULD BE passing through phases 8, 1, and 2 if not about to drop into the circle of death … again. 😉

    Interestingly, a couple of things about the pattern catch my attention for the period February 27 through March 4 (approximate dates). I’ll talk more about this soon…

    Quick mom update: Probably in rehab through month’s end anyway.

  49. The best of the best social media comments on weather

    “ When I see 9-12”, why should I check back to see if it’s changed”

  50. Boston normal snowfall = 49.2”
    Total snowfall to date = 9.7”

    “Only” 39.5” to go between now and, let’s say, the first week of April. 😉

    1. You mean they picked up on the fact that one run of one model showed a classic snowstorm. 🙂

      All they did was show the possibility of unsettled weather around that time if their forecasts went out far enough. 🙂

  52. NY could get a little closer to Boston in the snowfall standings. NY has 5.5 inches of snow for the season. The forecast in NY is for 2-4 inches of snow.

  53. I’m in Havertown, Pennsylvania. And yes, there will be some snow tonight. A winter storm warning is in effect, though it’s not likely to be a major storm. One forecaster said 4-6 inches. I’m naturally skeptical. But if it verifies I told my sister that’s a heck of a lot more than Boston has gotten in over 2 years in a single storm. I’m happy to see some snow. I saw quite a bit of snow during the train trip. None in Boston, of course. But almost has soon as I left the no snow zone of our hub of the universe I began to see some snow on the ground from this week’s event. And that lasted right until Metro Park, NJ. No snow right now in Havertown, but there is some on the way.

    1. I bet some areas down there overtakes Boston for snowfall to date. Off the top of my head, I believe Baltimore and DC are within tenths of an inch of Boston.

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